Core Insights - China is advancing towards a new phase of institutional openness, aiming to align domestic regulations with international high-standard economic and trade rules, thereby enhancing its global economic engagement [2][4][10] Group 1: Institutional Openness - China is actively engaging in international economic and trade rule-making, including efforts to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) [2][3] - The establishment of Free Trade Zones (FTZs) is a key strategy for promoting institutional openness, with 22 FTZs launched during the 14th Five-Year Plan, resulting in nearly 200 institutional innovations [3][4] - The Hainan Free Trade Port is set to achieve full island closure operations, serving as a new high ground for China's high-level opening-up [3] Group 2: Financial Sector Developments - The financial sector has seen significant foreign investment, with restrictions on foreign ownership in key areas like securities and insurance lifted, enhancing international competitiveness [4][5] - Major global financial institutions have established wholly-owned subsidiaries in China, indicating a growing international presence in the Chinese financial market [4] Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - In 2024, China attracted $116.24 billion in foreign direct investment, maintaining its position as the leading developing economy for foreign investment [6] - The proportion of foreign investment in high-tech industries reached 34.6%, reflecting a shift towards high-value and high-tech sectors [6] Group 4: Digital Trade and Innovation - Digital trade is emerging as a new competitive advantage for China, with significant investments in digital infrastructure and technology innovation [7] - China is actively participating in international digital trade negotiations and initiatives, enhancing its global competitiveness in digital products and services [7] Group 5: Global Economic Cooperation - China is promoting inclusive and sustainable global economic development through various initiatives, including the Belt and Road Initiative, which has seen trade with partner countries grow significantly [8][9] - The country is committed to reducing the North-South gap by offering zero-tariff rates on products from least developed countries that have diplomatic relations with China [9] Group 6: Future Outlook - China aims to continue its path of openness and innovation, fostering high-quality development and contributing to a more inclusive and sustainable global economy [10]

Core Viewpoint - The era of low tariffs and global trade circulation has ended, and Chinese brands must adapt to a new phase of globalization that emphasizes local integration and relationship building [2][10]. Group 1: Trends in Globalization and E-commerce - The rise of reverse globalization presents challenges, but new technologies like AI and blockchain can drive the development of cross-border e-commerce [4][6]. - Cross-border e-commerce platforms have a stronger ability to mitigate tariff impacts, and there is an opportunity for Chinese brands to transition to high-value, high-tech sectors [6][10]. - The competition landscape for cross-border e-commerce is shifting towards digital transformation and green initiatives, requiring companies to enhance compliance and protection capabilities [6][10]. Group 2: Strategies for Entering New Markets - Chinese companies have strong products and supply chain advantages but often struggle with relationship barriers in overseas markets [8][10]. - The "Five R Integration" methodology emphasizes building relationships with government, customers, investors, industry associations, and overseas talent to succeed in international markets [8]. - Successful examples include local engagement strategies, such as donating products to gain media coverage and community trust [9]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities in Emerging Markets - In 2024, China's outbound direct investment is projected to reach $192.2 billion, with private enterprises becoming the main force in overseas expansion [10]. - Emerging markets like ASEAN, Africa, and the Middle East present significant opportunities for Chinese companies due to their growing consumer bases and infrastructure needs [10][22]. - The Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, offers a vibrant market with a young population and high consumer spending potential, especially in sectors like e-commerce and technology [22][23]. Group 4: Challenges and Considerations - Companies must navigate logistical, regulatory, and cultural challenges when entering new markets, particularly in regions like Russia and Africa [15][19]. - Compliance with local laws and building a strong local presence are critical for long-term success in international markets [24][25]. - Companies should adopt a long-term mindset, focusing on relationship building and understanding local market dynamics rather than seeking quick wins [24][26].

Economic Overview - The economic situation in the US during the first half of the year is poor, with a significant decline in GDP expected for the second quarter, potentially down 7%-11% year-on-year and up to 40% on a seasonally adjusted annual rate [2][3] - The unemployment rate is severely underestimated, with official figures showing 14% in April, but actual estimates suggest it could be as high as 30% [3] Political Implications - The upcoming election influences the decision not to release negative economic forecasts, as such data could severely impact the incumbent's chances [4] - The administration's focus on "America First" and blame-shifting is a strategy to maintain support from its base, particularly among economically vulnerable groups [4] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has implemented four rounds of quantitative easing (QE) since 2008, with the most recent rounds aimed at stabilizing the economy and supporting government debt [5][6] - The current fiscal deficit is projected to reach $3.7 trillion, significantly higher than previous years, indicating a reliance on debt issuance to manage economic challenges [7][8] Debt and Monetary Policy - The US is expected to face a fiscal deficit exceeding $8 trillion this year, with a debt-to-GDP ratio projected to surpass 152%, the highest since World War II [8] - The Federal Reserve's bond purchasing has decreased to $50 billion daily, raising concerns about the impact of continued debt issuance without corresponding monetary support [8] Global Economic Impact - The US's monetary policy, particularly quantitative easing, may lead to asset bubbles and potential currency wars, affecting global economic stability [9][10] - The pandemic has accelerated a trend towards de-globalization, which could lead to increased competition and challenges for countries that were previously reliant on global supply chains [11]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views of the Report - Gold prices have reached a record high, with London gold spot breaking through $3,800 per ounce, and silver hovering near its 14 - year high. Despite strong risk - appetite in overseas markets, the risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an outstanding hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers include fiscal deadlock, concerns about government shutdown, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, pressure on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, central bank gold purchases, ETF increases, and geopolitical tensions. However, gold has risen for six consecutive weeks with a cumulative increase of over 40%, and there is a risk of short - term price correction due to profit - taking before the holiday and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations if US employment and PMI data are strong after the holiday [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices remains solid. Global debt expansion, the trend of de - globalization, continuous central bank gold purchases, Fed's future easing, and global economic uncertainties will support the strategic allocation value of gold [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key News - US President Trump announced a series of new import tariffs last Thursday, which has brought new uncertainties to the trade situation [2]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its third - quarter meeting, suggesting to strengthen monetary policy regulation [2]. - Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Kiev and other parts of Ukraine last Sunday, causing casualties [2]. - US lawmakers are about to hold talks with President Trump to avoid a government shutdown, and the Republican leader blamed the Democrats for the current deadlock [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices have reached a new high. London gold spot broke through $3,800 per ounce on Monday morning, and silver is near its 14 - year high. The risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an important hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers come from multiple factors, but there are short - term risks such as profit - taking and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices is solid, supported by factors like global debt expansion, central bank gold purchases, and Fed's future policies [3]. Commodity Index - On September 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities shows: the commodity index is 2237.97 with a - 0.51% change, the commodity 20 index is 2512.18 with a - 0.48% change, and the industrial products index is 2249.67 with a - 0.87% change [44]. - The PPI commodity index is 1325.62 with a - 0.84% change [45]. - The precious metals index on September 26, 2025: the current price is 3018.13, with a daily increase of + 0.75%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.71%, a 1 - month increase of + 9.91%, and a year - to - date increase of + 36.42% [46].

Core Insights - Guangdong is experiencing significant growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) despite a global decline, with new foreign enterprises increasing by 34% and actual FDI amounting to 70.87 billion yuan, a 9.4% increase year-on-year [1][2] - The province's ability to attract foreign investment is attributed to its strategic role in China's new development pattern and its strong industrial foundation [1][4] Summary by Sections Foreign Investment Growth - Guangdong established 21,000 new foreign enterprises from January to August this year, significantly outperforming the national average [1] - The actual FDI in Guangdong reached 70.87 billion yuan, contrasting with a national FDI decline of 13.4% in the same period [1][2] Historical Phases of Foreign Investment - The first phase (early reform to mid-1990s) saw Guangdong attract capital primarily from Hong Kong and Taiwan, focusing on labor-intensive industries [2] - The second phase (mid-1990s to around 2010) marked diversification of foreign investment sources, with a rise in technology-intensive sectors, establishing Guangdong as a global manufacturing hub [2][3] Current Trends in Foreign Investment - The third phase reflects a shift towards high-quality foreign investment, focusing on innovation and integration into local supply chains, with Guangdong becoming a center for advanced manufacturing [3][5] - The province is now a leader in strategic emerging industries like semiconductors, robotics, and biomedicine, with foreign investments increasingly directed towards R&D and innovation [5][6] Regional Development and Market Dynamics - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is transitioning from a "world factory" to a "global innovation hub," attracting foreign investment through high-level openness and industrial transformation [4][6] - Guangdong's large consumer market and geographical advantages are prompting foreign companies to shift their focus from international manufacturing to meeting local demand [7][8] Investment Environment and Policy Support - Guangdong has implemented a series of policies to enhance its investment environment, including measures to protect foreign investment rights and attract multinational corporations [9][10] - The province's proactive approach has resulted in over 100 investment promotion events this year, reinforcing its appeal to foreign investors [9] Future Outlook - The region is positioned as a key player in the global supply chain, with ongoing projects enhancing its manufacturing capabilities and market responsiveness [8][9] - Guangdong's commitment to innovation and collaboration is expected to further solidify its status as a preferred destination for foreign investment [12]

Core Points - The 2025 World Cantonese Business Conference aims to unite global Cantonese business forces and promote high-quality development in the Greater Bay Area [1][2] - The conference features a unique Cantonese product exhibition showcasing modern manufacturing, electronic information, AI, and biotechnology, reflecting Guangdong's robust industrial capabilities [2] - Guangdong's proactive approach to international trade and its efforts to create a favorable business environment are seen as opportunities for global Cantonese businesses [3] - The conference serves as a platform for sharing experiences among private enterprises, addressing management succession challenges, and fostering innovation [3][4] - The global Cantonese business community is encouraged to contribute to the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages High-Quality Development Project," emphasizing the importance of inclusive economic growth [4] Summary by Sections Conference Overview - The conference is organized in a "1+5+N" format, including an opening ceremony, five thematic sessions, and various supporting activities [1] - The event has been successfully held for six consecutive years, serving as a platform for showcasing Guangdong's achievements and promoting cooperation among Cantonese businesses [1] Product Exhibition - The inaugural Cantonese product exhibition highlights Guangdong's achievements in modern industries and its comprehensive industrial chain, which is crucial for economic transformation and high-quality development [2] International Trade and Business Environment - Guangdong's government supports enterprises in expanding globally, creating a conducive environment for international business collaboration [3] - The province's large market size presents significant opportunities for global Cantonese businesses to engage in development [3] Community and Economic Development - The conference emphasizes the role of the global Cantonese business community in supporting local development initiatives and fostering a sense of unity among members [4] - The traditional entrepreneurial spirit of Cantonese businesses is highlighted, promoting innovation and proactive engagement in various sectors [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - As of last Friday (September 26), London spot gold closed at $3,758.78 per ounce, with a weekly increase of $74.13 per ounce, representing a 2.01% rise. The gold price reached a high of $3,791.08 and a low of $3,683.28 during the week [1] - The first interest rate cut has been implemented, and although there are differing opinions among Federal Reserve officials, the overall stance remains dovish, with expectations for further rate cuts [1][5] - Geopolitical risks are increasing, and the U.S. government faces a potential short-term shutdown, which may drive gold prices higher [1][5] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Dynamics - In the U.S., the Markit manufacturing PMI for September fell to 52, slightly below the expected 52.2, while the services PMI was at 53.9, also below the expected 54. The composite PMI initial value was 53.6, indicating a relatively high level [2] - The second revision of Q2 GDP in the U.S. was adjusted upward by 0.5 percentage points to 3.8%, with consumption and investment also revised upward, showing stronger economic resilience than previously expected [2] - The unemployment claims decreased to 218,000, below the expected 235,000, indicating a stable job market [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - Federal Reserve officials have shown a divide in their views, with some calling for significant rate cuts, while others do not support further reductions. The overall sentiment leans towards the necessity of additional cuts due to increasing risks in the job market [3][4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model indicates a projected GDP growth rate of 3.9% for Q3, reflecting strong consumer spending and improving real estate data [3] Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Impacts - The potential government shutdown in the U.S. could negatively impact GDP by approximately 0.1 percentage points per week, but most losses are expected to be recouped once the government reopens [4] - Trump's policies, including tariffs, have contributed to inflationary pressures and increased market uncertainty, which may support gold prices [6] - The recent signing of the GENIUS Act legalizing stablecoins could have lasting effects on dollar credit, potentially influencing gold prices depending on the stability of these digital currencies [6] Group 5: Long-term Gold Outlook - The ongoing trend of "de-dollarization" and increased demand for gold as a safe asset is expected to provide upward momentum for gold prices [7] - China's central bank has continued to increase its gold reserves, reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August, indicating a sustained trend in central bank gold purchases [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. The Treasury bond futures are expected to have no trend - like market, and a certain degree of caution should be maintained [6]. - It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets, and existing long positions can be held. However, recent market fluctuations have increased, and risk control is required [8]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and previous long positions can be held [10]. - The medium - term weakness of rebar prices is difficult to change, and hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high positions during rebounds [12]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore supports prices in the short - term but may weaken in the medium - term. Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. - Coke and coking coal futures may continue to pull back in the short - term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. - Ferroalloys may continue to have oversupply in the short - term. After a decline, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss again [18]. - For crude oil, there are both bearish factors from funds and bullish factors from geopolitical risks. The main contract can focus on long - position opportunities [19][21]. - The supply of fuel oil in Asia has eased, and the price is supported. The main contract can be used to narrow the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [23][24]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate. There is cost support below, but weak demand and high inventory may suppress the price rebound space [26]. - For natural rubber, control positions mainly due to approaching holidays [29]. - PVC continues to have an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [31]. - Urea may fluctuate in the short - term with support below [33]. - Short - term PX supply and demand maintain a tight balance, and it may fluctuate and adjust. Attention should be paid to changes in crude oil at the cost end and macro - policies [35]. - Short - term PTA may fluctuate. There is improvement in processing fees, but the demand improvement is limited [37]. - Near - term ethylene glycol may be under pressure, and interval participation is recommended. Attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [38]. - Short - term short - fiber may fluctuate following costs. Attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [40]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate following the cost end [41]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to return to the logic of supply - demand surplus in the short - term, and the price may be weak. Attention should be paid to the conclusion of the Jiangxi mining license event [42]. - Copper prices maintain a high level, but there is a possibility of correction. The main contract of Shanghai copper can be temporarily observed [45]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [48]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [49]. - After adjustment, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities for call options in the support range of soybean meal. Soybean oil can be temporarily observed [50]. - Palm oil can be temporarily observed [52]. - Rapeseed oil can be considered for a long - position idea during pullbacks [54]. - Cotton prices are expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [57]. - Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [61]. - Apple prices are expected to have a higher opening price for late - maturing apples this year compared to last year. Observe before the holiday [64]. - For live pigs, consider short - selling at high levels in the near - term and anti - arbitrage strategies [66]. - For eggs, pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [69]. - Corn can be observed, and corn starch may follow the corn market [71]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 411.5 billion yuan on a single day [5]. - The central bank's monetary policy committee suggested maintaining loose monetary policy. From January to August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.9% year - on - year, and in August, the profit growth rate turned positive [6]. - It is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - like market, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission emphasized the need to prevent "involution - type" competition [8]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, the valuation of domestic assets is low, and there is room for repair. The market sentiment has warmed up, and it is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets [8]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed up. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed may continue to cut interest rates, providing upward momentum for gold [10]. - It is expected that the long - term bull market trend of precious metals will continue, and previous long positions can be held [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures pulled back slightly. In the medium - term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is still declining year - on - year, but there is a slight improvement in the traditional peak season. The supply is in an over - capacity situation, and the inventory pressure has increased [12]. - The price of rebar may remain weak in the medium - term, and hot - rolled coils may have a similar trend. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities at high positions during rebounds [12]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures pulled back slightly. The demand still supports the price, but the supply - demand pattern may weaken in the medium - term. The futures may continue to fluctuate in the short - term [14]. - Investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - Last trading day, coke and coking coal futures pulled back significantly. Before the holiday, the coking market is in a replenishment cycle, but the upward space for coal prices may be limited [15]. - The futures may continue to pull back in the short - term, and investors can focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks [15]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures closed down. The supply of ferroalloys is still in an oversupply situation in the short - term, and the high inventory puts pressure on the market [17]. - After a decline, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss again [18]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly but was blocked by the 60 - day moving average. CFTC data shows that fund managers hold net short positions in US crude oil futures and options. The number of oil and gas rigs in the US has increased, and OPEC + has achieved about 75% of its additional oil production target [19]. - There are both bearish factors from funds and bullish factors from geopolitical risks. The main contract can focus on long - position opportunities [19][21]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil continued to rise. The inventory of fuel oil in Japan and Singapore has decreased, and Trump's threat to impose high tariffs on Russia has led to a strong price trend [23]. - The main contract can be used to narrow the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [25]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. It is expected to fluctuate this week. There is cost support below, but weak demand and high inventory may suppress the price rebound space [26]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. The supply disturbance has slowed down, and it is necessary to control positions mainly due to approaching holidays [29]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited. Attention should be paid to changes on the supply side [31]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. Before the National Day holiday, factories have great pressure to reduce prices to attract orders. In the medium - term, there is support below [33]. - It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term with support below [34]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The short - term supply - demand maintains a tight balance, and the PXN spread is relatively strong. The cost end has support for a rebound, but increased supply slightly suppresses the market [35]. - It may fluctuate and adjust in the short - term, and attention should be paid to changes in crude oil at the cost end and macro - policies [36]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures closed down. The short - term processing fees have improved, but the demand improvement is limited. It may fluctuate in the short - term [37]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures closed down. The near - term supply is reduced, but the demand improvement is limited. It may be under pressure and can be participated in within an interval [38]. Short - Fiber - Last trading day, short - fiber futures closed down slightly. The short - term supply remains at a relatively high level, and the demand has improved month - on - month. It may fluctuate following costs [40]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle - chip futures closed down. The raw material price has rebounded slightly, and the load has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate following the cost end [41]. Carbonate Lithium - Last trading day, carbonate lithium futures closed down. The market's expectation of a shortage of ore may reverse, and it is expected to return to the logic of supply - demand surplus in the short - term, with a weak price trend [42]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose first and then fell. Copper prices maintain a high level, but there is a possibility of correction. The main contract can be temporarily observed [45]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated. The supply is tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [47]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply of high - grade nickel ore is tight, but the overall supply of primary nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to fluctuate [49]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures closed down. The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills remains at a high level, the inventory of soybean meal has increased, and the inventory of soybean oil has decreased slightly [50]. - After adjustment, attention can be paid to long - position opportunities for call options in the support range of soybean meal. Soybean oil can be temporarily observed [51]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. The export volume from September 1st to 25th increased compared to the previous month. China's palm oil imports in August increased by 82.7% month - on - month [52]. - It can be temporarily observed [53]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices fell back. The EU's rapeseed production forecast was raised, and Canada's rapeseed export volume increased. China's rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil inventories are at relatively high levels [54]. - Rapeseed oil can be considered for a long - position idea during pullbacks [56]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton futures fell sharply and then rebounded. The US cotton growth and inventory data were released, and China's cotton planting area and output are expected to increase [57]. - Cotton prices are expected to be under pressure in the medium - and long - term [59]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar futures rose first and then fell. Brazil's sugar production increased in the second half of August, and India's sugar production forecast remained unchanged. China's sugar imports increased from January to August [61]. - It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [62]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose first and then fell. The price of early - maturing apples is firm, and the output of the 2025 - 2026 production season is expected to increase slightly [64]. - The opening price of late - maturing apples this year is expected to be higher than last year. Observe before the holiday [64]. Live Pigs - Yesterday, the national average price of live pigs fell. The market is in a state of increasing supply and demand before the double festivals. The supply pressure is prominent, and the price may fluctuate slightly [66]. - Consider short - selling at high levels in the near - term and anti - arbitrage strategies [68]. Eggs - Last trading day, the average price of eggs in the main production areas remained unchanged, and that in the main sales areas fell. The inventory of laying hens is at a relatively high level, and the supply is expected to increase in October [69]. - Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after a rebound [70]. Corn and Corn Starch - Last trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The inventory of northern ports decreased, and the inventory of southern ports returned to a relatively low level. The demand for corn maintains a slight growth trend [71]. - Corn can be observed, and corn starch may follow the corn market [73].

Core Viewpoint - The evolution of currency forms is driven by both private and state influences, with current trends indicating a shift from a dollar-dominated international monetary system towards a multipolar framework, emphasizing the importance of real economic competitiveness and technological innovation over mere capital account openness [2][3][19]. Group 1: Evolution of Currency Forms - Currency can be understood through two dimensions: commodity money vs. credit money, and private money vs. state money [4][5]. - The historical transition from commodity money to credit money reflects the need for efficient payment systems, with modern banking systems evolving into public-private partnerships supported by government credit [4][6]. - Recent developments in digital currencies highlight the competition between state-backed central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and private cryptocurrencies, with the latter often seen as extensions of existing monetary systems [5][6][8]. Group 2: Trends in International Monetary System - The international monetary system has been significantly influenced by globalization and financialization, but recent geopolitical tensions and financial crises have accelerated trends of de-globalization and de-financialization [3][19][21]. - The shift towards bilateral and limited multilateral trade cooperation indicates a decline in the relative importance of financial assets compared to real assets, which may have profound implications for the international monetary system and the internationalization of the renminbi [19][20][24]. Group 3: Digital Currency Dynamics - Platform currencies, such as WeChat Pay and Alipay, leverage network effects to gain systemic importance, disrupting traditional banking models and creating new payment channels [9][10]. - Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) can either serve as cash substitutes or as interest-bearing assets, with their impact on the financial system largely dependent on whether they pay interest [11][14]. - Stablecoins, which are pegged to high liquidity assets like the US dollar, operate similarly to narrow banking models, emphasizing the need for high-quality reserves to maintain stability [15][18]. Group 4: US Cryptocurrency Strategy - The US faces challenges in maintaining the dollar's status as the world's primary reserve currency amid rising concerns over its long-term creditworthiness [34][36]. - The US government's strategy to utilize stablecoins as a means to reinforce dollarization reflects an attempt to monetize fiscal deficits while expanding the demand for US Treasury securities [35][40]. - However, the effectiveness of this strategy may be hindered by competition from other currencies and the inherent vulnerabilities of stablecoins, which are subject to market dynamics and regulatory scrutiny [42][43]. Group 5: Future of the International Monetary System - The international monetary system is likely to evolve towards a multipolar structure, with the renminbi's internationalization being driven by real economic strength and technological advancements rather than solely by capital account liberalization [2][19][52]. - The geopolitical landscape and economic policies will play crucial roles in shaping the future dynamics of global currency competition and cooperation [24][52].

Group 1 - The current U.S. economic situation is complex, and simply lowering interest rates will not resolve the underlying issues [1][19] - The Federal Reserve is now focusing more on employment data, but recent manipulations of employment statistics complicate the decision-making process [3][5] - Political pressures are influencing economic data, which undermines the Federal Reserve's independence and complicates interest rate policy [5][15] Group 2 - The traditional mechanism of lowering interest rates to stimulate borrowing and spending is currently ineffective, as both consumers and businesses are reluctant to take on debt [7][11] - The housing market is struggling, with new home sales at a record low and high inventory levels, leading to a lack of consumer confidence in real estate investments [9][11] - Small businesses are facing significant challenges, with many selling off core assets due to financial strain, indicating a lack of confidence in economic recovery [11][19] Group 3 - Inflation remains a persistent issue, driven by factors such as de-globalization and rising costs, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to control [13][15] - The service sector, which constitutes 80% of the U.S. GDP, is particularly vulnerable to inflationary pressures, complicating efforts to stabilize the economy [13][15] - The potential for a controlled recession could help restore confidence in the U.S. dollar and government bonds, but political reluctance to accept such measures poses a risk [15][19] Group 4 - The U.S. economy is at a critical juncture, with the risk of falling into a liquidity trap and prolonged stagflation if current trends continue [17][19] - The reliance on monetary policy adjustments, such as interest rate cuts, is increasingly seen as inadequate to address deep-rooted economic challenges [17][19] - The interconnectedness of global economies means that U.S. economic instability could have far-reaching implications for the global market [19]