Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The current cycle is nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export remain robust, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. Recovery in consumption is anticipated after two years of stability [3] - Supply-side pressures are significant, with global chemical capital growth expected to turn negative in 2024. Domestic construction projects are declining, but fixed asset investment remains above 15% growth [3] - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a year of destocking, with price and profit levels expected to rebound in Q2 2024, although overall performance will remain under pressure for the year [3] Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators including the comprehensive prosperity index of the chemical industry and industrial added value [2] Price Indicators - The report includes PPI, PPIRM, and CCPI, along with price differentials for chemical products [2] Supply-side Indicators - Key metrics include capacity utilization, energy consumption, fixed asset investment, inventory, and ongoing projects [2] Import and Export Indicators - The report analyzes the contribution of import and export values [2] Downstream Industry Performance Indicators - It covers PMI, real estate, home appliances, automotive, and textile sectors [2] Economic Efficiency Indicators - The report presents three major economic efficiency indicators for the industry [2] Global Macro and End Market Indicators - It includes procurement manager index, GDP year-on-year, civil construction starts, consumer confidence index, and automotive sales [2] Global Chemical Product Prices and Differentials - The report details prices and differentials for chemical raw materials, intermediate products, and sub-industries like resins and fibers [2] Global Industry Economic Efficiency Indicators - It discusses changes in sales, profitability, growth capacity, solvency, operational capacity, and per-share indicators [2] Chemical Product Prices and Production Indicators in Europe and the US - The report provides insights into the prosperity index, confidence index, capacity utilization, production index, PPI, and production index for the chemical industry in these regions [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and considering going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, and light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds, and light - position participation is recommended [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, for manganese silicon, consider virtual call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom, and also consider virtual call options at low levels if there are large - scale spot losses [22]. - For crude oil, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see [24][25]. - For fuel oil, consider going long on the main contract [27][28]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to oscillate [29][30]. - For natural rubber, it is expected to oscillate [31][32]. - For PVC, it is expected to continue oscillating [33][35]. - For urea, it is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. - For p - xylene (PX), short - term caution is recommended, and pay attention to changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [38]. - For PTA, consider range - bound operations and control risks [39]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to oscillate and adjust, and be cautious about the upside space [40]. - For short - fiber, it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side, and be cautious when participating [41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost side, and be cautious about cost price changes [42]. - For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate steadily [43][44]. - For glass, the market sentiment is weak, and the actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [45][46]. - For caustic soda, the overall supply - demand is still relatively loose, and pay attention to the operation of enterprise equipment and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices [47][48]. - For pulp, it is expected to rebound in the short - term, and pay attention to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [49]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and the price is difficult to reverse before the large - scale clearance of mine capacity [50][51]. - For copper, consider going long on the main contract of Shanghai copper [52][53]. - For tin, it is expected to oscillate weakly [54][55]. - For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [56]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil - palm oil and soybean oil - palm oil [57][58]. - For palm oil, consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [58][59]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, for soybean meal, wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [60][61]. - For cotton, wait for a pullback and then go long at low levels [62][65]. - For sugar, conduct range - bound operations [66][69]. - For apples, pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [70][71]. - For live pigs, consider temporarily waiting and seeing [73][74]. - For eggs, consider shorting on rebounds [75][76]. - For corn and starch, temporarily wait and see [77][79]. - For logs, the market has no obvious driving force, and the spot transaction price is weak [80][81]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 142.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 36 billion yuan. The State Council executive meeting discussed relevant policies. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the Treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It is recommended to maintain caution [5][6][7]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. From January to April 2025, the number of newly - established foreign - invested enterprises increased, but the actual use of foreign capital decreased. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures [8][9][10]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold and silver futures had different performances. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on EU and mobile phone products. The global trade and financial environment is complex, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures [11][12]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The real - estate industry's decline has not reversed, and the demand for rebar is decreasing. The price may decline further, but the downside space is limited. Investors can short on rebounds [13][14][15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The high demand and reduced supply support the price. The valuation is relatively high, and it is in an oscillating pattern. Investors can buy at low levels [16][17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. The price may continue to fall, and investors can short on rebounds [18][19][20]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures declined. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for ferroalloys is weak. For manganese silicon, consider virtual call options; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated slightly. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, the number of oil and gas rigs decreased, and OPEC + may increase production. The oil market may be oversupplied, and it is recommended to wait and see [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated slightly. The global trade demand is recovering, and the Singapore inventory has increased. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [26][27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost have improved. It is expected to oscillate [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures declined. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It is expected to oscillate [31][32]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The supply is increasing, and the demand for exports is good. It is expected to continue oscillating [33][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures declined. The export policy has changed, and the agricultural demand is about to start. It is expected to oscillate strongly [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures declined. The supply has increased, and the cost support has weakened. Short - term caution is recommended [38]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures declined. The supply has increased, and the demand has decreased. The cost support is insufficient. Consider range - bound operations [39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures declined. The supply has decreased, the inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand has improved. It is expected to oscillate and adjust [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures declined. The supply has increased, the demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures declined. The cost support has weakened, the supply has increased, and the demand has improved. It is expected to follow the cost side [42]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures declined. Some devices are under maintenance, but the new device is about to be put into production. The demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate steadily [43][44]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures declined. The production line has decreased, and the actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The market sentiment is weak [45][46]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures declined. Some devices are under maintenance, the supply is relatively loose, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to the operation of equipment and the price of liquid chlorine [47][48]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory has decreased slightly, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to rebound in the short - term [49]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures declined. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly [50][51]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US tariff affects the real economy, and the support policy is being implemented. It is recommended to go long on the main contract [52][53]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin declined. Some mines are resuming production, the supply may increase, and the demand is good. It is expected to oscillate weakly [54][55]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made progress, the cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and the domestic palm oil inventory is at a relatively low level. Consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil - palm oil and soybean oil - palm oil [57][58]. Palm Oil - The Canadian rapeseed futures are oscillating. The domestic import of rapeseed oil has increased, and the inventory is at a high or low level. Consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The US - EU trade friction may intensify, and the domestic soybean supply is abundant. For soybean meal, wait and see; for soybean oil, consider virtual call options at the bottom support range [60][61]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The Sino - US tariff suspension is beneficial to cotton exports. The US cotton planting rate and production are expected to change. Wait for a pullback and then go long at low levels [62][65]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated weakly. The Brazilian sugar production may increase, and the domestic inventory is at a low level. Conduct range - bound operations [66][69]. Apples - On the previous trading day, apple futures oscillated. Some apple - producing areas may have reduced production, and the inventory is lower than last year. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long after a pullback [70][71]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs has changed slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand support is weak. Consider temporarily waiting and seeing [72][73][74]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, the egg price declined. The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, and the supply is sufficient. Consider shorting on rebounds [75][76]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn and corn starch futures rose. The US - EU tariff threat affects the US corn price. The domestic corn supply is under pressure, and the demand is stable. Temporarily wait and see [77][79]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures declined. The expected arrival of logs has increased, the demand is weak, and the price is running weakly [80][81].

Group 1 - The article highlights concerns over liquidity crises due to increased volatility in overseas markets, contrasting this with the completion of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiations [1] - The China A500 Index includes 500 securities selected from various industries, reflecting the overall performance of the most representative listed companies in China, with a coverage rate of 98% across 93 sub-industries [1] - The China A500 Index features at least 80 "Dragon One" companies and at least 100 "Dragon Two" or "Dragon Three" companies, making it a better representation of China's core assets compared to the CSI 300 Index, which only covers 68% of sub-industries [1] Group 2 - Investors interested in core Chinese assets can consider the China A500 ETF (159338), which is the largest in its category with a scale exceeding 20 billion yuan, making it the only product of its kind in the market [1] - For investors without stock accounts, the China A500 ETF's feeder fund (022449) offers an opportunity to invest in core A-share assets [1]

Market Overview - Following the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy on April 2, 2025, global stock market volatility increased significantly, with a rapid decline followed by a quick recovery approximately one week later[7] - As of May 22, 2025, most major markets have returned to and exceeded their levels from April 2, 2025, likely due to short-term economic support from global export surges during the 90-day exemption period[8] Economic Concerns - The increase in global tariff levels and the intensification of de-globalization are expected to hinder global demand in the medium term, despite the recent market performance suggesting otherwise[8] - The uncertainty surrounding President Trump's administration and unresolved risks related to U.S. debt have resurfaced as market focal points, potentially ending the low volatility phase observed since May[8] U.S. Tariff Policy - On May 23, 2025, President Trump proposed a 50% tariff on EU products starting June 1, 2025, raising concerns about a potential escalation in the U.S. tariff war, which led to a collective decline in European and American stock markets[10] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating on May 16, 2025, marking the first downgrade in over a decade, which may amplify market negative sentiment in the short term[10] Debt Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities rose, indicating investor concerns about government debt and interest burdens, although market risk appetite remained relatively stable[11] - The downgrade has resulted in a loss of the highest Aaa rating from all three major international credit rating agencies for the U.S., reflecting deteriorating fiscal conditions compared to similarly rated countries[12] Investment Recommendations - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 18.96, a decrease of 0.47% from the previous week, indicating a potential shift in valuation trends[6] - The report suggests that Chinese assets may become a safe haven amid increasing global market volatility, positioning them favorably for investors seeking stability[1]

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研究报告称，日债利率自月初持续上升，但异动发生于本周，集中于 超长期债券。此外，日元套息交易平仓活跃度已突破2012年以来新高，也可能对美股美债产生冲击。进 一步地，若美元资产抛售引发资金回流日本，关注是否会影响美日贸易谈判对"金融条款"的涉及。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 日债利率自月初持续上升，但异动发生于本周，集中于超长期债券。虽然5月日债利率持续上升，但10 年期日债和美债利率的趋势、涨幅基本一致，利率上行压力或来自美债市场的传导。值得关注的异动发 生于本周二(5月20日)，日债利率曲线从走平转为陡峭，20、30年期利率分别跳升13和12基点，单日即 贡献近半当月累计涨幅，且该异动无法从超长期美债利率走势中找到对应。 市场讨论的部分因素对异动的解释力或许不足。 利率上行本已加剧市场对政府债务的担忧，财政刺激方案进一步催化情绪。5月20日超长期债券利率跳 升的催化事件为20年期日债拍卖遇冷——利率已处于上升通道，而日本政府近期讨论财政刺激以应对外 需压力，杠杆率超200%的日本政府若在加息周期举债将加剧债务的不可持续风险。日本2025财年政府 预算草案显示，政府支出中债务赎回 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. For treasury bonds, it's expected that there will be no trend - like market, so caution is advised [6][7]. - Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still promising. Considering going long on stock index futures [10][11]. - The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. It's advisable to consider going long on gold futures [13][14]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil, investors can focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds. For iron ore, focus on buying opportunities at low levels. For coking coal and coke, focus on shorting opportunities during rebounds [15][17][19]. - For iron alloys, consider call option opportunities for ferromanganese silicon at low levels and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon at the bottom [21][22]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, consider short - side operations [24][25][27]. - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate, natural rubber to oscillate weakly, PVC to continue oscillating, urea to fluctuate narrowly, PX to be treated with caution, PTA to be operated within a range, ethylene glycol to oscillate and be treated with caution regarding the upside, short - fiber to oscillate following the cost, bottle - chip to follow the cost, soda ash to oscillate steadily, glass to have a short - term sentiment repair, caustic soda to focus on device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations, pulp to have a short - term rebound and then pay attention to supply and demand policies, and lithium carbonate to control risks and wait for upstream large - scale production cuts [28][30][32][35][37][39][40][42][43][44][46][47][49][51]. - For copper, consider short - term shorting. For tin, expect a bearish oscillation. For nickel, pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, maintain a bearish view [53][56][57][59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, be on the sidelines for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil at the bottom. For palm oil, consider expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil. For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider going long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back. For cotton, wait to go long after a pull - back. For sugar, operate within a range. For apples, focus on going long opportunities after a pull - back. For live pigs, temporarily stay on the sidelines. For eggs, consider shorting after a rebound. For corn and starch, stay on the sidelines. For logs, the market has no obvious driving force [61][64][66][70][75][79][81][83][86][88]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most treasury bond futures closed flat. The central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 90 billion yuan. Nearly 100 institutions have issued over 250 billion yuan of science and technology innovation bonds [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, and the monetary policy is expected to be loose. The treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level. It's advisable to be cautious [6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is promising. Considering going long on stock index futures [8][10][11]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The US and euro - zone PMI data were released. The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue. Consider going long on gold futures [12][13][14]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures oscillated weakly. The real - estate downturn suppresses prices, but the peak - season demand may provide short - term support. The valuation is low, and the downward space may be limited. Consider shorting during rebounds [15]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures oscillated. The high demand and reduced supply support the price. The valuation is relatively high. Consider buying at low levels [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to decline. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the demand for coke is weak. Consider shorting during rebounds [19]. Iron Alloys - On the previous trading day, ferromanganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures rose. The supply of manganese ore may be disturbed, and the demand for iron alloys is weak. Consider call option opportunities for ferromanganese silicon at low levels and short - covering opportunities for ferrosilicon at the bottom [21][22]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil dropped significantly due to the possible OPEC+ production increase. The supply - demand imbalance and tariff - induced consumption decline may negatively affect oil prices. Consider short - side operations [23][24][25]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil dropped following crude oil. The summer power - generation demand may boost the price, but the decline in crude oil prices will drive it down. Consider short - side operations [26][27]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The supply pressure persists, but the demand and cost factors may lead to short - term strength with limited upside. It's expected to oscillate [28][29]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures fell. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It's expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand for exports is good. It's expected to continue oscillating [32][34]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures fell. The market is affected by export news and policy intervention. It's expected to fluctuate narrowly [35][36]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures fell. The supply - demand and cost factors are in a game. It's advisable to be cautious [37]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply - demand structure has improved, but the cost support is insufficient. Consider range - bound operations [38][39]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply has decreased, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand has improved, but the cost lacks drive. It's expected to oscillate and be treated with caution regarding the upside [40]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures fell. The downstream demand has slightly improved, but the cost support is insufficient. It's expected to oscillate following the cost [41][42]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, bottle - chip futures fell. The raw material price is oscillating, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. It's expected to follow the cost [43]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures rose. The short - term supply has decreased, but the long - term supply - demand imbalance persists. It's expected to oscillate steadily [44][45]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures rose. The actual supply - demand has no obvious driving force. The short - term market sentiment may be repaired [46]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell slightly. The production has decreased, the inventory is at a neutral level, and the demand is limited. Pay attention to device operation and liquid chlorine price fluctuations [47][48]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is abundant. It may have a short - term rebound, and then pay attention to supply and demand policies [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. Control risks and wait for upstream large - scale production cuts [51][52]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US tariff affects the real economy, and copper may face a correction. Consider short - term shorting [53][54]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fell. The supply may increase, and the demand may improve. It's expected to have a bearish oscillation [55][56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The cost support is strong, but the demand is weak. Pay attention to opportunities after the repair of macro - sentiment [57]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, industrial silicon futures fell slightly, and polysilicon futures rose. The demand is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. Maintain a bearish view [58][59]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures fell. The supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant. Be on the sidelines for soybean meal and consider call option opportunities for soybean oil at the bottom [60][61]. Palm Oil - On the previous trading day, palm oil futures fell. The inventory is accumulating, and the demand is weak. Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed - palm oil and soybean - palm oil [62][64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - On the previous trading day, rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil futures showed different performances. The import situation has changed, and the inventory is at different levels. Consider going long on rapeseed meal after a pull - back [65][66]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures oscillated. The Sino - US tariff suspension may be beneficial, and the weather affects the growth. Wait to go long after a pull - back [67][70]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures oscillated weakly. The Brazilian production is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is low. Operate within a range [71][74][75]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fell slightly. The production is uncertain, and the inventory is decreasing. Focus on going long opportunities after a pull - back [76][78][79]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live pig futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [80][81]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand may be supported during the festival. Consider shorting after a rebound [82][83]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, corn futures rose, and corn starch futures fell slightly. The supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. Temporarily stay on the sidelines [84][86]. Logs - On the previous trading day, log futures fell slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market has no obvious driving force [87][88].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and different investment strategies are recommended for various commodities based on their specific fundamentals and market conditions [5][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, futures closed with mixed results: 30 - year down 0.08%, 10 - year flat, 5 - year up 0.03%, 2 - year up 0.02%. The central bank conducted 157 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan. It's expected that there will be no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6] Stock Index Futures - Last trading day, futures showed mixed performance. The eight - department joint measures support small - and - micro - enterprise financing. Despite weak recovery momentum, China's equity assets are still favored in the long - term, and going long on stock index futures is considered [7][8][9] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold rose 3.23% and silver 2.45%. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [10][11] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Last trading day, futures showed weak oscillations. The real - estate downturn suppresses rebar prices, but peak - season demand may provide short - term support. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with light positions [12][13] Iron Ore - Last trading day, futures rebounded slightly. High iron - water production supports demand, and supply pressure has eased. Investors can look for opportunities to buy at low levels, with light positions [14][15] Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, futures oscillated. Coking coal supply is loose, and coke prices may resume downward adjustment. Investors can look for opportunities to short on rebounds, with light positions [16][17] Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. Manganese - ore supply may be disrupted, and investors can consider out - of - the - money call options for manganese - silicon; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [17][18] Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil rose. OPEC + production increase and potential consumption decline due to tariffs are concerns. Short - selling the main contract is considered [19][20][21] Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil rose. Although trade demand has recovered, short - selling the main contract is considered [22][23] Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, futures fell 1.94%. Supply pressure persists, but demand and cost factors suggest short - term strength with limited upside [24][25] Natural Rubber - Last trading day, futures declined. Supply may increase, and demand may improve. A weak - oscillation trend is expected [26][27] PVC - Last trading day, futures rose 0.32%. Supply is increasing, and demand for exports is good, but the upside is limited [28][29][30] Urea - Last trading day, futures rose 0.22%. Policy adjustments and upcoming agricultural demand may lead to a strong - oscillation trend [31][32] PX - Last trading day, the PX2509 contract rose 1.17%. Short - term caution is needed due to crude - oil price fluctuations and supply - demand changes [33] PTA - Last trading day, the PTA2509 contract rose 1.14%. Supply - demand structure has improved, but cost support is insufficient. Interval trading is considered [34] Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, futures fell 0.23%. Supply has decreased, and demand has improved, but cost factors limit the upside. Oscillation adjustment is expected [35][36] Short - Fiber - Last trading day, the 2506 contract rose 0.37%. Terminal demand has slightly recovered, but cost support is weak. Follow - up cost - based oscillation is expected [37] Bottle Chips - Last trading day, the 2506 contract rose 0.36%. Raw - material prices are oscillating, and supply - demand fundamentals have improved. Follow - up cost - based operation is expected [38][39] Soda Ash - Last trading day, the 2509 contract rose 0.47%. Short - term supply has decreased, but long - term oversupply persists. A stable - oscillation trend is expected [40] Glass - Last trading day, the 2509 contract rose 0.98%. There is no obvious driving force in the market, and short - term sentiment may recover [41][43] Caustic Soda - Last trading day, the 2509 contract fell 1.33%. Production has decreased, and demand is limited. Attention should be paid to enterprise operations and liquid - chlorine prices [44] Pulp - Last trading day, the 2507 contract rose 0.59%. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. A short - term rebound is expected, but long - term factors need attention [45][46][47] Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, futures rose 0.59%. Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. Risk control is recommended in the short - term [48] Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper rose. After a significant increase, there is a callback pressure. Short - selling the main contract is considered [49][50] Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is uncertain. A bearish - oscillation trend is expected [51] Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. Cost support is strong, but demand is weak. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment recovery [52] Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - Last trading day, industrial - silicon futures fell, and polysilicon futures rose. Supply - demand contradictions persist, and a bearish view is maintained [53] Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean - meal futures rose 1.91%, and soybean - oil futures rose 0.23%. Supply is expected to be abundant, and different strategies are recommended for each [54][55][56] Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. Domestic imports have decreased, and inventory is low. Considering expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [57][58][59] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures showed mixed results. Chinese imports and inventories have changed. Buying rapeseed meal after a correction is considered [60][61] Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton oscillated. Tariff suspension may benefit exports. Buying on dips is considered [62][63][65] Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated weakly. Brazilian production is low, and domestic inventory is low. Interval trading is recommended [66][68][69] Apples - Last trading day, apple futures had little change. Some regions may have reduced production, and inventory is low. Buying after a correction is considered [71][72][73] Hogs - Yesterday, the national average hog price fell. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. Temporary observation is recommended [74][75] Eggs - Last trading day, the average egg price was flat. Supply is increasing, and selling on rebounds is considered [76][77] Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn futures rose 0.09%, and starch futures fell 0.15%. Supply pressure exists in the short - term, and temporary observation is recommended [78][79] Logs - Last trading day, the 2507 contract was flat. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The market has no obvious driving force [80][81]

集运欧线大幅下挫工业硅再创上市新低 集运欧线21日大幅下挫，新晋主力08合约跌超7%。现货市场方面，地中海航运公布6月上旬欧线实际报价为1580/2640，涨幅不及其前期宣涨目标但相较5月 底运价仍有明显抬升。据华闻期货分析，目前地中海率先提涨带来的利多情绪已基本释放，市场预计航司端6月初调价幅度总体接近该水平，短期盘面进一 步上行驱动不足，后续还应重点关注其余主流航司开舱报价情况。需求方面，受航司远端提涨推动，欧线下游5月末订舱情绪有所改善，目前船舶基本满 舱、少部分航司爆舱，或对市场预期起到一定支撑作用。不过市场期待的旺季出货潮尚未得到兑现，未来还需继续跟踪下游货量走势。供应方面，美线货量 激增预计将刺激各航线运力回流美线，但当前对欧线供应压力的改善效果有限。从最新船期教据来看，6月上半月运力投放仍相对较多，对运价提涨构成潜 在压力。总体上看，欧线下游供需宽松格局暂未得到扭转，后续运价提涨进程依然存不确定性，预计盘面还将面临一定多空博弈。 新华财经北京5月21日电（郭洲洋、左元）21日，氧化铝涨超3%，黄金、菜粕 、白银涨超2%，豆粕、二号大豆、高硫燃料油、SC原油、对二甲苯、PTA、 沪锡、一号大豆涨超 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the new trade agreement between the US and the UK, while appearing to focus on tariff reductions, is primarily aimed at isolating China [1][5] - The agreement allows for increased access of US agricultural products to the UK market in exchange for tariff reductions on UK automobiles, which is expected to protect the UK automotive industry and related jobs [1][3] - Analysts suggest that this could lead to a significant influx of US agricultural products into the UK market, potentially replacing the Chinese orders for soybeans and pork that were previously canceled [3] Group 2 - The trade agreement includes stringent safety requirements from the US regarding the steel and pharmaceutical industries, indicating a potential squeeze on Chinese enterprises in these sectors [5] - The US has hinted that China is the intended target of these regulations, revealing ongoing ambitions to suppress and isolate China [5] - China's response emphasizes the importance of UK-China relations and the potential for mutual benefits through cooperation, countering the US-UK efforts to exclude China from supply chains [7][9] Group 3 - The Chinese government expresses a willingness to work with the UK to foster a healthy and stable bilateral relationship, which could mitigate geopolitical risks posed by US unilateralism [9] - China's stance is framed as a commitment to multilateralism and cooperation, contrasting with the isolationist approach of the US and UK [9] - The article suggests that the real concern for the US and UK may not be China's market share, but rather China's adherence to principles of openness and mutual benefit, which are crucial in the current era of globalization [9]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting between Wang Yi and Luhut emphasizes the need for China and Indonesia to strengthen cooperation and resist unilateralism and trade bullying in the face of global challenges [1] Group 1: Bilateral Relations - Wang Yi highlighted the importance of adhering to the original intention of establishing diplomatic relations and maintaining independence and autonomy in cooperation with Indonesia [1] - China congratulated Indonesia on becoming a formal member of BRICS, indicating a strengthening of ties and mutual support in international platforms [1] Group 2: Regional Stability and Cooperation - The discussion focused on promoting the Bandung spirit of unity and cooperation to maintain peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region [1] - There is a commitment to advancing regional economic integration and building a shared community in the Asia-Pacific, which reflects a strategic partnership between China and Indonesia [1]