Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestically, the government emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle, and the consumer market shows steady growth, indicating a stable economic foundation. Overseas, the global economic recovery is uneven, with the US economy strong but facing inflation, and Europe struggling with energy and supply - chain issues. The IMF has lowered the global economic growth forecast [1]. - For key varieties: - Crude oil prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance in the oil market [2][14]. - Shipping, especially the container shipping European line, has seen price rebounds due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions, with different trends for different contracts [3][35]. - Gold prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations, tariff wars, and Fed policies, currently in a correction phase [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Main News - **International News**: The Fed is considering adjusting its monetary policy framework. The US may face more frequent supply shocks and unstable inflation, and long - term interest rates may rise. The predicted April PCE in the US will increase by about 2.2% year - on - year [6]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council emphasizes strengthening the domestic economic cycle to hedge against international uncertainties and promote high - quality development [1][7]. - **Industry News**: The IEA predicts that the global oil demand growth will slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of 2025, and has lowered the US shale oil production forecast [2][8]. 3.2 Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.41%, the European STOXX50 rose 0.60%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.38%, the US dollar index fell 0.24%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.87%, London gold rose 1.98%, London silver rose 1.33%, and various other commodities had different price changes [10]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Short - term positive factors such as policy support and tariff negotiation results are beneficial to the stock market. The valuation of major domestic indices is low, and stock index futures are expected to be bullish, while stock index options can use the wide - straddle buying strategy [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Sino - US talks, market risk appetite increased, and treasury bond futures prices fell with potential short - term volatility [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling due to the expected US - Iran nuclear deal and a more relaxed supply - demand balance [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Short - term bullish, with changes in domestic device operation rates and inventory levels [15]. - **Rubber**: Expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as production area conditions and tariff policies [16]. - **Polyolefins**: After a phased rebound, they may oscillate at high levels, affected by macro factors and crude oil prices [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The market is reacting positively to the Sino - US financial talks. Glass inventory is slowly decreasing, and soda ash supply is relatively abundant, with both facing inventory digestion challenges [18][19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a correction phase, affected by geopolitical and tariff factors, and the Fed's wait - and - see attitude [4][5]. - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate widely, affected by factors such as processing fees, demand, and tariff negotiations [21]. - **Zinc**: Prices may also fluctuate widely, with expectations of improved supply and influenced by tariff negotiations [22]. - **Aluminum**: May be oscillating strongly due to the better - than - expected result of tariff negotiations, despite weakening short - term demand [23][24]. - **Nickel**: Prices may be oscillating strongly, with a mix of positive and negative factors in the market [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are weak, with a supply - demand imbalance. Without large - scale production cuts, the price outlook is pessimistic [26]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The black - metal sector is recovering due to macro - level positives, but the fundamentals of coking coal are deteriorating, and coke prices may face downward pressure [27]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term support exists due to iron - water production and demand, but it may be weakly volatile in the later stage due to expected supply increases [28]. - **Steel**: The market faces a situation of increasing supply and weakening demand, with short - term exports stable but a potential seasonal decline in demand [29][30]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Oils and Fats**: Prices are falling due to factors such as the weakening of US biodiesel speculation, high palm oil production and inventory in Malaysia, and falling crude oil prices [31]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean prices are rising due to positive factors, but domestic supply is expected to increase, putting pressure on prices [32]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The market is in a short - term oscillation. Supply is expected to be tight in July, but high prices may affect downstream acceptance. There is an expectation of imported corn reserve auctions [33]. - **Cotton**: Spot prices are rising with improved macro sentiment. Supply is stable, and the market is bullish in the short - term due to tariff negotiations [34]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping European Line**: Prices have rebounded due to the easing of Sino - US tariff frictions. The 06 contract's volatility is expected to be limited, while the 08 contract may remain strong [3][35].

| | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/5/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭盘面 | | | | | 焦煤盘面 | | | | 基美 | | | | 昨日 | | 时日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 即日 | 涨跌 | | 昨日 | 间日 | 涨跌 | | 12601 | 1498.5 | 01805T | -9.5 | JM2601 | 0.668 | 911.0 | -12.0 | J01基差 | -9.5 | -19.0 | BE | | J2505 | 1520.0 | 1587.5 | -67.5 | JM2505 | 0.058 | 850.5 | -0.5 | 105基差 | -31.0 | -98.5 | 67.5 | | 12508 | 1472.0 | 1485.0 | -10.0 | 8055WIE | 0.688 | 894.5 | -11.5 | 109重要 | 17.0 | 7.0 | 100 | | J09-J01 | -26.5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis using tools such as the Fibonacci retracement, horizontal lines, and moving averages, the report anticipates the following trends for major futures contracts on May 16, 2025: stock index futures will fluctuate and consolidate; 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures will likely experience wide - range fluctuations; gold, silver, copper, aluminum, alumina, PTA, and styrene futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias; rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, methanol, soybean meal, and PVC futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias; crude oil futures will fluctuate and consolidate; and container shipping index (European line) futures will likely fluctuate with a slight upward bias [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - China's economic policies include promoting domestic circulation, urban renewal, and technological finance. Tax data shows accelerated enterprise sales growth in April, with a 4.3% year - on - year increase in national enterprise sales revenue and a 6.5% increase in construction industry sales revenue. The "Swap Connect" product types are to be enriched [7][8]. - Internationally, the Fed is considering adjusting its monetary policy framework, and Powell predicts a 2.2% year - on - year increase in US PCE in April. The US and Iran are negotiating a nuclear deal. The EU is revising its trade agreement proposal with the US. The UK's Q1 GDP grew by 0.7% quarter - on - quarter [9][11][12]. 2. Commodity Futures - Related Information - On May 15, international precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.74% and COMEX silver futures up 1.07%. International oil prices dropped significantly, with US crude oil down 2.31% and Brent crude down 2.22%. London base metals closed mixed [12][13]. - The IEA expects global oil demand growth to slow to 650,000 barrels per day for the rest of the year and has lowered its forecast for US shale oil production for the second consecutive month [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Outlook Stock Index Futures - On May 15, major stock index futures contracts such as IF2506, IC2506, and IM2506 opened slightly lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then declined. A - shares weakened, with a total trading volume of 1.19 trillion yuan. High - frequency data shows that Goldman Sachs has raised its 12 - month target prices for the MSCI China Index and the CSI 300 Index [14][15][16]. - It is expected that in May 2025, major stock index futures contracts will likely fluctuate with an upward bias in a wide range. On May 16, they will fluctuate and consolidate [18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On May 15, the 10 - year treasury bond futures contract T2506 opened slightly higher, fluctuated slightly upward, and the 30 - year contract TL2506 also opened slightly higher and rose. The central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2.191 trillion yuan [39][44]. - It is expected that on May 16, the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond futures contracts will likely experience wide - range fluctuations [41][46]. Precious Metal Futures - On May 15, gold and silver futures contracts AU2508 and AG2508 opened lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then declined. International precious metal futures generally rose on the same day [46][51]. - It is expected that in May 2025, gold futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias in a wide range, and silver futures will likely fluctuate in a wide range. On May 16, both will likely fluctuate with an upward bias [48][49][51]. Base Metal Futures - On May 15, copper, aluminum, and alumina futures contracts opened slightly lower or higher, rebounded but faced resistance, and then showed different trends. It is expected that in May 2025, these futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias, and on May 16, they will also likely fluctuate with an upward bias [58][62][68]. Building Materials and Energy Futures - On May 15, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and PVC futures contracts generally opened slightly lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then showed downward - biased fluctuations. Crude oil futures contracts opened slightly lower and declined significantly [74][79][94]. - It is expected that in May 2025, rebar, iron ore, and crude oil futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias in a wide range. On May 16, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, glass, soda ash, and PVC futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias, and crude oil futures will fluctuate and consolidate [74][80][94]. Chemical Futures - On May 15, PTA, styrene, and methanol futures contracts opened slightly lower, rebounded but faced resistance, and then showed different trends. It is expected that on May 16, PTA and styrene futures will likely fluctuate with an upward bias, and methanol futures will likely fluctuate with a downward bias [100][105][108]. Agricultural Futures - On May 15, the soybean meal futures contract opened slightly lower, rebounded slightly, and then showed a slight upward trend. It is expected that on May 16, it will likely fluctuate with a downward bias [110]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures - On May 15, the container shipping index (European line) futures contract EC2508 opened with a large gap up, fluctuated upward significantly, and then showed a strong upward trend. It is expected that on May 16, it will likely fluctuate with a slight upward bias [112].

国内市场综述 弱势整理 缩量回调 周四（5 月 15 日）大盘弱势整理，缩量回调。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3380.82 点，下跌 0.68%；深成指 收于 10186.45 点，下跌 1.62%；科创 50 下跌 1.26%； 创业板指下跌 1.92%，万得全 A 成交额共 11904 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 27 个行业收跌，其 中综合金融、计算机及通信跌幅居前，仅有煤炭、农 林牧渔、电力及公用事业小幅收涨。概念方面，动物 保健精选、医美及乳业等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，思科涨近 5% 周四（5 月 15 日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道 指涨 0.65%，标普 500 指数涨 0.41%，纳指跌 0.18%。 思科涨近 5%，可口可乐涨超 3%，领涨道指。万得美国 科技七巨头指数跌 0.86%，亚马逊、脸书跌超 2%。中 概股普遍下跌，老虎证券跌超 8%，阿里巴巴跌逾 7%。 新闻精要 1. 李强在做强国内大循环工作推进会上强调：把做强 国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举 2. 最高法、证监会联合发布《关于严格公正执法司法 服 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of domestic demand and internal circulation as unique advantages for the economy, aiming to enhance consumption and stimulate service consumption potential [1] - The recent meeting highlighted the need to strengthen domestic circulation and implement strategies to expand domestic demand while deepening supply-side structural reforms [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant gains in consumer sectors, with notable increases in stocks such as Bilibili, Smoore International, Chow Tai Fook, and BYD, reflecting a positive response to consumption policies [1] Group 2 - According to CMB International Securities, the consumer sector demonstrates strong resilience and structural highlights, indicating investment value in the current economic environment [2] - Data from the recent "May Day" holiday shows a significant rebound in foot traffic in key commercial areas, supported by local government initiatives like tourism consumption vouchers, which have effectively boosted tourism and service consumption [2] - Retail sales in key monitored sectors experienced substantial year-on-year growth, with increases of 15.5%, 13.7%, and 10.5% for home appliances, automobiles, and communication devices, respectively, driven by trade-in policies and holiday effects [2]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise to 24,300 points due to the reduction of tariffs between China and the US, with the US tariffs on Chinese goods decreasing from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for a period of 90 days, indicating a significant easing of tensions [2] - The market anticipates a new round of financial policies from mainland China, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, aimed at stabilizing market expectations and boosting investor confidence [2] Sector Focus - The Chinese central bank and other departments are committed to supporting technological innovation through various investment strategies, emphasizing long-term and hard technology investments [3][7] - The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting a cautious approach to economic uncertainties [3][7] Company News - Alibaba (9988) reported a 7% year-on-year revenue increase to 236.45 billion yuan, but adjusted net profit of 29.847 billion yuan fell short of expectations [9] - NetEase (9999) achieved a 32% increase in adjusted net profit, driven by a 12% rise in gaming revenue, exceeding market expectations [9] - Geely (0175) reported a 2.6 times increase in first-quarter profit, with revenue rising 24.51% year-on-year [9] - JD.com (9618) announced that its food delivery business has surpassed 20 million daily orders, marking a new high since its launch [9] - NIO (9866) plans to launch its new model, the L90, in the next quarter, aiming to expand its market presence [9] Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's overall export and import volumes increased by 15.8% and 13.5% year-on-year in March, respectively, indicating a positive trade outlook [7] - The United Nations has downgraded its global economic growth forecast to 2.4% for the year, with China's growth expected to slow to 4.6% due to various economic pressures [7][8]

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：区间震荡 现货方面：PT ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-16 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-16 盘面再现高股息行情 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 国内政策推进。宏观方面，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理强调，要深刻认识和准确把握当 前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循 环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。海外方面，美国4月PPI环比意外下跌0.5%，其中 服务价格下降0.7%，创2009年以来最大单月跌幅。上周初请失业金人数持平于22.9万人，符合市场预期。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收跌，上证指数收盘跌0.68%收于3380.82点，创业板指跌1.92%。行业方 面，板块指数跌多涨少，仅美容护理、煤炭、公用事业、农林牧渔行业收红，计算机、通信、电子、传媒行业跌 幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额回落至1.15亿元。证监会修订发布《上市公司募集资金监管规则》，强调募集资金 使用应专款专用，用于主营业务，明确超募资金最终用途应为在建项目及新项目、回购注销，不得用于永久补充 流动资金和偿还银行借款。海外市场，鲍威尔表示 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3907.2 | ↓0.91 | | 2414.6 | | | | | | IF2505 | 3908.2 | ↓0.74 | 1 | 239.3 | 20365 | ↓13325 | 19193 | ↓11402 | | IF2506 | 3872.8 | ↓0.74 | -34.4 | 698.1 | 59965 | ↓21992 | 153318 | ↓11284 | | IF2509 | 3808.2 | ↓0.67 | -99 | 181.5 | 15855 | ↓2926 | 65235 | ↓244 | | I ...