1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Global central banks' expectations of interest rate cuts and fiscal easing, along with continuous gold purchases by central banks and ongoing geopolitical conflicts, may make precious metal prices more likely to rise than fall. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions on dips. London gold should focus on support levels around $3150 - 3250 and resistance levels around $3500 - 3700; Shanghai gold should focus on support levels around 750 - 770 and resistance levels around 850 - 900; London silver should focus on support levels around $28 - 30 and resistance levels around $35 - 36; Shanghai silver should focus on support levels around 7400 - 7800/8000 and resistance levels around 8600 - 8900 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Data**: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 793.25 yuan/gram, down 8.32 yuan; trading volume was 65020, and open interest was 232308. COMEX gold futures' closing price was $3357.70 per ounce, down $31.10; trading volume was 234897, and open interest was 327650. London gold spot price was $3322.90 per ounce, down $37.45. SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 946.27 tons, down 10.90 tons; iShare Gold ETF holdings were 431.10 tons, up 4.14 tons [1] - **Important News**: Trump said that 200 agreements had been negotiated, the US - Philippines agreement was "very close", and it was unlikely that tariffs would be postponed for another 90 days. The Trump administration planned to hold talks with 18 trading partners under a new framework for simplified negotiations until July 8. There was a small - scale exchange of fire between India and Pakistan near the Line of Control in Kashmir on Thursday night, and the Pakistani defense minister issued a "full - scale war" warning [1] Silver - **Market Data**: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 8270 yuan/ten grams, down 25 yuan; trading volume was - 460823, and open interest was 312250. COMEX silver futures' closing price was $33.02 per ounce, down $0.53; trading volume was 52122, and open interest was 34152. London silver spot price was $33.34 per ounce, up $0.38. US iShare Silver ETF holdings were 13956.01 tons, down 147.11 tons; Canadian PSLV Silver ETF holdings were 5807.39 tons [1] - **Important News**: The US Congress passed a temporary spending bill until September 30, reaching an agreement on the budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of $5.3 trillion over the next decade and an increase in the debt ceiling of $5 trillion in exchange for government spending cuts of $4 billion [1] Central Bank Policies - **European Central Bank**: Cut interest rates by 25 basis points in April, lowering the deposit facility rate to 2.25%. Eurozone and German - French manufacturing PMIs in April were 48.7/48/48.2, higher than expected but lower than the previous value. Eurozone and German consumer price index (CPI) annual rates in August were 2.2% and 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value. Economists predicted that the European Central Bank might cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - **Bank of England**: Kept the key interest rate at 4.5% in March, continuing to reduce government bond holdings of £100 billion from October 2024 to September 2025. The UK's consumer price index (core CPI) annual rates in February were 2.8% (3.5%), lower than expected and the previous value. The SPGI manufacturing and services PMIs in April were 44/48.957, lower than expected and the previous value, and the GDP monthly rate in April was - 0.1%, lower than expected and the previous value. The market expected the Bank of England to cut interest rates in May and might cut interest rates 2 - 3 times before the end of 2025 [1] - **Bank of Japan**: Raised interest rates by 25 basis points in January, raising the benchmark interest rate to 0.5%, and started to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale by 400 billion yen in August 2024. Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru planned to coordinate the 2025 supplementary budget to distribute subsidies of 50,000 yen per person (the total scale may be close to 10 trillion yen) and cut taxes on daily necessities by 2 trillion yen. Japan's (Tokyo) consumer price index (CPI) annual rates in March (April) were 3.6% (3.5%), lower than expected and the previous value (higher than expected and the previous value). The largest labor union in Japan, Rengo, achieved an average salary increase of 5.46%. Some Bank of Japan officials hoped to raise interest rates to 1% in the second and third quarters, and the market expected the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates around July [1] Other Commodities and Financial Indicators - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil was 493.40 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was $65.83 per barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was $62.77 per barrel [1] - **Base Metals**: Shanghai copper futures were 77440 yuan/ton, LME copper spot was $9392.50 per ton, Shanghai rebar was 3106 yuan/ton, and Dalian iron ore was 709 yuan/ton [1] - **Interest Rates**: Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.57%, SHIBOR one - year was 1.77%. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.3200%, the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 2.0200%, and the US 10 - year Treasury breakeven inflation rate was 2.2700% [1] - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.2667, the US dollar - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.2055, and the euro - to - Chinese yuan central parity rate was 8.2124 [1] - **Stock Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index was 3297.2881, the S&P 500 was 5525.2100, the UK FTSE 100 was 8415.2500, the French CAC40 was 7329.9700, the German DAX was 22242.4500, the Nikkei 225 was 35705.7400, and the South Korean Composite Index was 2522.3300 [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a container shipping daily report dated March 31, 2025, released by the shipping research team [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The market has a bullish sentiment towards future freight rates, and the market is oscillating at a high level. Risk - takers can attempt a short - term rebound strategy with a light position [2] - The core logic for this year's shipping market lies in international tariff policies. In April, the US will re - evaluate tariff policies with Canada, Mexico, and Europe, adding significant uncertainties to the shipping market [3] - It is necessary to focus on the price war between MSK and MSC in the second quarter and the feedback of terminal demand under aggressive tariff policies [3] Group 4: Freight Index Analysis SCFIS and NCFI - On March 24, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1506.17 points, down 3.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1260.05 points, down 16.4% from the previous period [2] - On March 28, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 983.01 points, up 12.89% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 866.25 points, down 0.65% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1524.4 points, up 49.83% from the previous period [2] SCFI and CCFI - On March 28, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1356.88 points, up 64.13 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1318 USD/TEU, up 0.9% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 2177 USD/FEU, up 16.3% from the previous period [2] - On March 28, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1111.71 points, down 3.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1526.99 points, down 3.8% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 806.01 points, down 6.3% from the previous period [2] Group 5: PMI and Investor Confidence Index Eurozone - The Eurozone's March manufacturing PMI flash was 48.7 (expected 48.2); the March services PMI flash was 50.4 (expected 51). The March composite PMI flash rose to 50.4, the highest since August [2] - The Eurozone's March Sentix investor confidence index was - 2.9 (expected - 8.4, previous - 12.7) [2] China - China's February manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant recovery in manufacturing sentiment. China's February Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.8, the highest in three months, and the employment contraction rate slowed significantly [2] US - The US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash was 49.8, the lowest in three months; the March services PMI flash was 54.3, the highest in three months; the March composite PMI flash was 53.5, the highest in three months [3] Group 6: Trading Strategies Short - term Strategy - Risk - takers can try to enter the market at the 1900 - 2000 range of the 2508 contract for a short - term rebound in the peak - season contract and set stop - losses [3] Arbitrage Strategy - Due to the recurrence of geopolitical conflicts and the basic determination of tariff policies, the arbitrage structure is currently chaotic, with short windows and large fluctuations. All positions have been advised to take profits [3] Long - term Strategy - All long - term positions in far - month contracts have been advised to take profits. It is recommended to wait until the price war situation in March becomes clear and the far - month contracts adjust to appropriate prices before making new arrangements [3] Group 7: Contract Information - The daily limit for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 16% [3] - The company's margin requirement for contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 26% [3] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2504 to 2602 is 100 lots [3] - On March 28, the main contract 2506 closed at 2288.0, up 6.14%, with a trading volume of 64,100 lots and an open interest of 34,800 lots, an increase of 811 lots from the previous day [3] Group 8: Geopolitical and Policy Factors - The US trade protectionist policies introduced by Trump have increased global economic uncertainties, and the US - EU trade war may harm both sides [4] - The Palestine - Israel conflict continues, and the delay in the cease - fire agreement negotiation adds uncertainties to the shipping market [3]

期货研究院 聚烯烃及苯乙烯期货期权日度策略 Polyolefin and EB Futures & Options DailyTrading Strategy 能源化工团队 | 作者： | 封晓芬 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03098955 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017725 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年02月17日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 聚烯烃： 【行情复盘】 期货市场：今日，聚烯烃震荡偏强，LLDPE05合约收7859元/吨， 涨0.60%，持仓变化-12515手，PP05合约收7417元/吨，涨0.28% ，持仓变化-9290手。 现货市场：市场交投氛围谨慎，现货价小幅探涨，国内LLDPE市场 主流价格在8040-8700元/吨；PP市场，华北拉丝主流价格在7230 -7350元/吨，华东拉丝主流价格在7350-7500元/吨，华南拉丝主 流价格在7350-7530元/吨。 【重要资讯】 （1）供给方面：聚乙烯新装置投产，供应压力仍存，PP部分装置 检修，装置负荷 ...

能做的都做了，后续发展不再是一家公司所能决定的了。 TikTok 美国的停摆已经有充分的预兆，最早可以追溯到十多年前。 2012 年底，另一次美国总统大选，美国国会众议院情报委员会召开听证会，研究华为在美国做通信设备生 意是否危害国家安全。 华为积极应对。任正非亲自带领高管分别在深圳、香港接待了前美国总统卡特和一众美国议员。它的美国 公司花了上百万美元聘请律师游说，一位高级副总裁前往国会作证。结果虽然没有明确证据，但众议院情 报委员会依然裁定，华为对美国网络设施构成安全威胁。 听证会上，一位议员讲出了冲突的根本：只要有威胁的可能，国会就得做出反应，"不能像 9/11 那样，等 威胁成真再反应。" 文丨高洪浩 孙海宁 制图丨 黄帧昕 编辑丨黄俊杰 "抱歉，TikTok 现在无法使用。" 美国东部时间 1 月 19 日凌晨，当美国用户再打开 TikTok 时，只能看到 这一条消息，画面再也不能永远滑不到底了。 美国国会要求 TikTok"不卖就禁" 的法案如期生效。该法案涵盖所有字节、TikTok 运营的产品。同一时 间，Lemon8（图文社区）、CapCut（海外剪辑）、Lark（海外办公），甚至是沐瞳的游戏都 ...