汇通财经APP讯——周二（11月18日）出炉的美国最新就业数据全面崩盘，直接把美联储12月降息预期 从谷底拉回50%附近，现货黄金从盘盘中触及的一周低点3998美元暴力反弹，盘中最高摸到4080美元， 最终收涨0.54%报4067.44美元，一夜终结三连阴，上演"王者归来"戏码！周三（11月19日）亚市早盘， 现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于4070美元/盎司附近，本交易日市场目光将转向美联储会议纪要，此 外，还需要继续关注美联储官员的讲话。 美国就业市场彻底亮红灯，裁员潮已经来了 最新数据触目惊心：10月中旬当周初请失业金人数飙升至两个月最高点，续请失业金人数更是直接突破 190万人大关。与此同时，克利夫兰联储披露上个月有整整3.9万美国人提前收到裁员通知，ADP私营就 业报告也显示，过去四周平均每周净裁员高达2500人。这些数字叠加在一起，只传递出一个信号——美 国劳动力市场正在急速恶化！ 独立金属交易商Tai Wong指出：这波疲软数据明显提升了市场对12月降息的希望，对正在苦苦挣扎的金 银来说，简直是天降及时雨！ 降息概率上演惊天大反转，从67%跌到45%又杀回50% 芝商所FedWatch工具实时显示， ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a slight decline but rebounded due to rising risk aversion and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, closing at $4,067.40 per ounce on COMEX [1] Economic Data Summary - The ADP weekly employment report indicated an average weekly decrease of 2,500 jobs in the U.S. private sector for the four weeks ending November 1 [1] - The U.S. Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims at 232,000 for the week ending October 18, with continuing claims slightly rising to 1.957 million. The initial claims for the week ending September 20 were revised up from 218,000 to 219,000, and the four-week average was adjusted from 237,500 to 237,750, highlighting weak data that increased market expectations for a rate cut in December [1] Market Analysis - CITIC Futures noted that the high levels of initial and continuing jobless claims, coupled with the prolonged government shutdown, further elevate the risks in the labor market. U.S. stock markets continued to show weakness, while U.S. Treasury bonds slightly strengthened [1] - Attention is focused on the upcoming U.S. GDP and non-farm payroll data releases, with gold and silver expected to experience short-term fluctuations. However, the long-term bullish trend for precious metals remains intact [1] - The ongoing issues of excessive debt issuance and de-globalization are key drivers of the decline in U.S. dollar credibility, positioning gold as the preferred asset for hedging against dollar credit risk [1]

FICC日报 | 2025-11-19 避险情绪急剧发酵，风险资产集体承压 市场分析 国内经济基础仍待夯实。10月28日，"十五五"规划建议全文发布，公报提到，到2035年实现我国经济实力、科技 实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP目标 推算，"十五五"期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右，较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。10月30日， 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识，11月5日，中国正式落实暂缓关税。数据方面，10月全国制造业PMI录得49， 环比值下跌0.8；中国10月出口（以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节 前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口"和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，关 注后续经济情况。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一 步促进消费政策措施，国内经济基础仍待夯实。11月18日，A股低开低走，创业板指跌超1%。AI应用方向逆势大 涨；商品多数下跌，焦煤跌3.86%，集运指数(欧线)跌2.88%，沪 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent divergence in commodity markets is driven by geopolitical factors, monetary policy expectations, and market sentiment, which presents both opportunities and risks for medium to long-term investors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Oil Market - The rise in crude oil prices is primarily due to tightening sanctions against Russia by the EU and the impending U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, leading to a decrease in supply [3]. - WTI crude oil has maintained a price above $60, with traders suggesting that it is unlikely to fall below this level unless there is a significant market downturn [3]. - The potential for further price increases exists if new sanctions are announced, indicating a bullish outlook for the medium to long term [3][5]. Group 2: Industrial Metals - The decline in copper and other industrial metals is linked to changing expectations regarding U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with investors cautious ahead of upcoming employment data [4][5]. - Industrial metals are closely tied to economic demand, and concerns about delayed rate cuts have led to increased selling pressure, despite previous supply concerns [4]. - For medium to long-term investors, focusing on metals with strong demand and supply constraints is recommended, particularly after price corrections [5]. Group 3: Gold Market - The increase in gold prices is attributed to heightened risk aversion among investors, particularly in light of stock market volatility [4]. - Gold prices are also influenced by interest rate expectations, and while there may be short-term gains, long-term trends will depend on broader market conditions [4][5]. - It is advised to maintain a portion of gold as a hedge against risk rather than pursuing aggressive trading strategies [5]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors should focus on supply-demand dynamics for oil and industrial metals, particularly in light of geopolitical developments and economic recovery trends [5][6]. - Monitoring U.S. employment reports is crucial for understanding future monetary policy directions, which will impact commodity markets significantly [5][6]. - Practical investment strategies include waiting for price corrections in oil, avoiding panic selling in industrial metals, and maintaining a balanced approach to gold investments [5][6].

本报记者 刘琪 近期，国际金价呈现先扬后抑的走势。Wind资讯数据显示，伦敦金现货价格在11月10日至11月12日连续上涨，11月13日盘 中冲高至4245.22美元/盎司后开始回落。11月18日，截至记者发稿时（下同），伦敦金现货价格盘中失守4000美元/盎司关口， 最低跌至3997.658美元/盎司。 受国际金价影响，国内金饰价格也大幅回调。"看到金饰价格跌至1300元/克以下，我就过来看看，怕再等下去价格又涨起 来。"11月18日在北京市丰台区一家周大福门店挑选首饰的梁女士对《证券日报》记者说，她最近在某社交平台上被"种草"了 该品牌的四芒星系列饰品，想趁金价回调时机入手。据悉，上周该品牌金饰克价最高升至1333元，而11月18日已经下调至1288 元。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示，两大因素共同导致了近期国际金价表现不佳：一方面，前期避险情 绪对金价的支撑有所减弱；另一方面，美国重要经济数据尚未恢复公布，投资者对劳动力市场和美国通胀走势预期并不一致， 对12月份美联储降息预期也有所摇摆。 市场避险情绪明显减弱 瞿瑞预计，短期来看，国际金价和银价都将会维持震荡格局，主要源于美联储12月 ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, dropping below $90,000, erasing all gains for 2025, indicating a bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market [1][3]. Market Performance - Bitcoin is currently priced at $90,722.9, with a 24-hour decline of 4.99% and a 7-day decline of 15.42%, resulting in a market capitalization of $1.80 trillion [2][3]. - Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and Cardano have also seen declines exceeding 5% [3]. Liquidation Data - In the last 24 hours, there were 176,721 liquidations across the cryptocurrency market, totaling approximately $947 million [2][4]. - The liquidation amounts include $138 million in the last hour and $612 million in the last 12 hours, indicating high volatility [4]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent downturn to a new wave of risk aversion and sell-offs in tech stocks, leading to a loss of support from major investment funds and ETFs [4][5]. - The cryptocurrency market is now considered to be in a "confirmed bear market" phase, with weak ETF inflows and a decline in retail investor interest [4][5]. ETF Fund Flows - Bitcoin ETFs experienced a net outflow of $311.3 million over four days, marking the longest streak of outflows since March 14, with a total of $2.6 billion withdrawn over the past five weeks [5]. - This trend reflects a broader market volatility and a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, which adds pressure to growth assets like cryptocurrencies [5][7]. Options Market Activity - There is a dominant demand for put options with strike prices of $85,000 and $80,000, indicating expectations of further declines in Bitcoin's price [7].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline, dropping below $90,000 and erasing all gains for 2025, indicating a bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market [1][2]. Price Movements - As of the latest report, Bitcoin is priced at $90,722.9, reflecting a 4.99% decrease. Other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Cardano have also seen declines exceeding 5% [2][3]. - The total market capitalization of Bitcoin is approximately $1.80 trillion, with Ethereum at $359.21 billion [3]. Market Dynamics - In the last 24 hours, over 176,721 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $947 million (approximately 6.7 billion RMB) [3][4]. - The recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market is attributed to renewed risk aversion and sell-offs in tech stocks, leading to a loss of support from major investment funds and ETFs [4][5]. ETF Flows - Bitcoin ETFs have seen a net outflow of $311.3 million over four days, marking the longest streak of outflows since March 14, totaling $2.6 billion over the past five weeks [5]. - This trend indicates a weakening demand for Bitcoin and reflects broader market volatility, particularly in growth assets like cryptocurrencies and tech stocks [5]. Market Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the cryptocurrency market has entered a confirmed bear market phase, with declining ETF inflows, ongoing selling by long-term holders, and low retail investor interest [4][6]. - Options traders are betting on further declines in Bitcoin, with a dominant demand for put options at strike prices of $85,000 and $80,000 [6].

Group 1 - Institutional investors increased their Bitcoin reserves by over $500 million in the past 30 days, indicating a long-term investment perspective focused on Bitcoin's value storage properties [1] - The recent price drop to $90,700 highlights the ongoing supply and demand dynamics in the market [1] Group 2 - The increase in institutional holdings is a gradual process, typically executed through ETFs, block trades, or algorithmic investments, rather than causing immediate price spikes [1] - Despite institutional buying, short-term selling pressure can still lead to price declines, influenced by macroeconomic factors and internal cryptocurrency dynamics [4] Group 3 - Key short-term selling pressures include expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Federal Reserve, a strong dollar, recession fears, and the initiation of repayments by the bankrupt Mt. Gox exchange, which could flood the market with Bitcoin [4] - The German government's reported sale of seized Bitcoin and increased selling from miners due to operational costs also contribute to the selling pressure [4] Group 4 - Market sentiment is affected by panic selling among retail investors when prices breach critical support levels, as well as profit-taking by those who have seen significant gains since the beginning of the year [5]

南华期货原油产业周报 —— 供应宽松压制油价，地缘与避险风险成关键 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月17日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周原油呈N型波动且重心下移，当前在63-65美元震荡。上周五因俄罗斯新罗西斯克港遭袭（中断220万桶/ 日出口）油价大涨，但港口已恢复作业，需警惕盘面回落及63美元支撑位。汽柴油支撑弱化或继续回落，炼 厂开工提升的支撑有限，叠加全球原油供应高位，市场宽松格局压制油价。地缘风险短期解除，宏观面中性 但需关注资金避险情绪。中短期原油维持60-65美元低位震荡，重点留意地缘与避险风险。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原油ETF隐含波动率(右轴) WTI原油主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping below $95,000 and Ethereum also facing substantial losses, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1][6]. Market Performance - Bitcoin fell to $94,301.3, marking a 5.44% decrease [1]. - Ethereum decreased by 2.23%, trading at $3,103.22, with a total market cap of $380.71 billion [4]. - Dogecoin and Cardano also saw declines of 2.55% and 4.87%, respectively [4]. - Over the past 24 hours, more than 226,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $1.077 billion (approximately 7.6 billion RMB) [5]. Market Sentiment and Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent downturn to renewed risk aversion and sell-offs in tech stocks, leading to a loss of support from large investment funds and corporate treasurers [6]. - 10X Research indicates that the cryptocurrency market has entered a confirmed bear market phase, with weakening ETF inflows and ongoing selling by long-term holders [6]. - The next key support level for Bitcoin is identified at around $93,000 [6]. Macro Economic Factors - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has raised concerns about missing key economic data, which may influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates [7]. - Hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials regarding inflation and interest rates have added pressure to the cryptocurrency market [7]. - The withdrawal of institutional support and the shift in market sentiment towards a defensive stance are seen as critical factors affecting liquidity in the cryptocurrency market [7].