Core Viewpoint - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has a significant impact on the A-share market, with recent declines in the Hang Seng Index raising concerns for investors ahead of the A-share market's opening [1][3][6] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a sharp decline, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both opening lower, causing anxiety among investors [1] - A-share market showed a pessimistic trend before the holiday, with over 4,000 stocks declining and the number of stocks hitting the daily limit falling to around 50 [3] - The A50 futures index dropped over 2% at one point, indicating a weakening sentiment in the market [6] Group 2: External Influences - The overall performance of Asian stock markets was poor, with the Nikkei 225 index falling over 1% and the Korean Composite Index also declining [3] - External factors, including changes in the U.S. stock index futures and rising gold prices, have led to increased risk aversion among investors [6] Group 3: Upcoming Events - June is expected to be eventful for the A-share market, with significant events such as the optimization of the ChiNext Index and the Lujiazui Forum scheduled for mid-June [5] - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting could also have a profound impact on global capital markets, influencing A-share performance [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The performance of the Hong Kong market may lead to a cautious opening for the A-share market, with the potential for a low opening followed by a recovery depending on the willingness of new capital to enter the market [3][8] - Despite short-term challenges, the A-share market is likely to remain in a trend of oscillating upward movement, with opportunities arising from sector rotations and increased trading volume [8]

什么样的行情才是最难做的行情？明明看着行情在涨在跌，可就是鼓不起勇气跟上节奏，除了一声叹息， 什么都没有改变，无论行情怎么动，总有一个理由阻止你，市场策略那么多，那一条才是适合你的投资之 道？与其感慨交易无常，不妨静下心来看看兴言如何用经验老道的分析打败踌躇不前的犹豫，用精准的进 场点位捕捉一次波动中的利润。 黄金假期为何暴涨？ 最主要的原因还是由于特朗普上周五最新的关税威胁，包括计划将钢铁和铝关税提高一倍至50%，以及乌 克兰周末对俄罗斯腹地发动的袭击，直接加剧了全球加剧地缘政治风险，并助长避险情绪，引发避险资金 涌向黄金。 "对于黄金预测而言，这种避险情绪和财政不确定性的背景再有利不过了。"加之美元重挫，黄金昨日价格 暴涨近3%。 黄金：反弹3390做空，防守3400，目标看向3360-50一线！回撤3350附近做多，防守42，目标看向3380- 85！ 记住交易并非易事,而是一丝不苟的思路和严谨的操作,而若想早日脱离亏损泥潭,走上稳健收获的正轨，很 简单，找到兴言跟上指导！一样也能稳健拿捏利润！ 责任编辑：赵兴言 【以上观点，仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎】 黄金暴涨之后今天走势分析！ 假期开盘，黄金 ...

Group 1 - The Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has seen a strong increase of 1.50% as of June 3, 2025, with gold prices rising back to $3,400, leading to a surge in gold stocks [1] - The local time on May 25, Trump agreed to delay the additional 50% tariffs on the EU until July 9, restoring a 90-day trade negotiation window, which has contributed to market risk aversion and supported gold prices [2] - The Nonferrous Metals Industry Index reflects the overall performance of 50 prominent securities in the nonferrous metals sector, accounting for significant market liquidity and scale [2] Group 2 - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Nonferrous Metals Industry Index include Zijin Mining, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, collectively accounting for 51.92% of the index [3] - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) has increased by 1.32%, with the latest price reported at 1.07 yuan [2][4]

关税和地缘政治，再次刺激金价大涨！ 6月2日，金价大幅上涨，现货黄金盘中涨超2%并突破3360美元关口。当日，港股黄金概念股也集体走强，潼 关黄金涨超18%，赤峰黄金涨近6%，中国黄金国际涨超4%，老铺黄金涨3.65%。 金价大涨，特朗普发出警告 高位震荡多日后，金价在6月2日大幅拉升。当天，现货黄金盘中涨超2%，价格突破3360美元/盎司；COMEX 黄金期货主力合约则突破3380美元/盎司，盘中涨幅也超过2%，并创下近三周最大单日涨幅。 从消息面来看，北京时间6月2日，美国总统特朗普继续就贸易法庭的关税裁决结果发出"警告"。特朗普在其自 创的社交平台"真相社交"上就法院和关税问题发表评论称，"如果法院以某种方式就关税问题做出对美国不利 的裁决（虽然这不太可能），那就意味着其他国家可以用针对我们的反美关税来要挟我们的国家。这将意味着 美利坚合众国的经济崩溃！" 此前5月28日，美国国际贸易法院阻止了美国总统特朗普在4月2日"解放日"宣布的关税政策生效，并裁定特朗 普越权，对向美国出口多于进口的国家征收全面关税。美国联邦巡回上诉法院5月29日批准特朗普政府的请 求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院的裁决。 有外媒指出 ...

> 特朗普一句"50%关税"，全球债市应声起舞 | 3年 | 1.520 | 3.987 | -247bp | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5年 | 1.650 | 4.090 | -244bp | | 7年 | 1.640 | 4.293 | -265bp | | 10年 | 1.710 | 4.504 | -279bp | | 30年 | 1.920 | 4.989 | -307bp | 贸易战引爆债市 避险与分化成主线 收益率曲线"熊平"：短端通胀恐慌，长端增长悲观 5月23日特朗普威胁对欧盟加征50%关税后，德国债市率先拉响警报： 德国国债收益率曲线一夜变形，避险资金疯狂涌入黄金，而一场跨大西洋的贸易风暴正重塑 金融市场的逻辑链条。 -短端利率跳升：两年期德债收益率逆势上涨1.8个基点至1.782%，反映市场对输入性通胀 的担忧； -长端利率暴跌：三十年期收益率下跌2.3个基点至3.065%，预示经济衰退风险激增。 这种罕见的分化被德意志银行称为"政策不确定性的直接产物"，瑞银更警告若关税落地， 德债收益率或再跳升10-15个基点。 黄金与美元：避险情绪的"双面镜" - 黄 ...

摘要周五（5月30日）国际黄金日内维持下跌走势，目前市场焦点还集中在周五将公布的美国个人消费 支出(PCE)物价指数数据上。市场将仔细分析该数据，以寻找有关美国未来货币政策的信号。 美联储利率政策与贸易不确定性成为市场焦点。周四，美国联邦上诉法院暂停贸易法院的裁定，临时恢 复前总统特朗普实施的关税措施。据市场调查显示，此举为贸易前景再添变数，增强市场避险情绪，有 助于金价保持韧性。 此外，美联储多位官员近期表示，如果经济数据和通胀进一步回落，今年进行2次降息是合理的预期。 尽管FOMC会议纪要显示目前仍保持观望态度，但市场仍倾向于年内降息。这种利率路径的不确定性， 成为黄金的中长期支撑因素之一。 【黄金技术分析】 今日周五，金价又再度跌破3300点，内盘TD价格虽保持在765上方，但涨势力度不强，白盘时段能否延 续昨日的上涨格局，不好肯定，因此还需观察等待。短期内若没有风险事件支撑，金价上涨较难持续， 所以还是不能再高位追进，或许会跌破位昨日低点，也或许不会，总之能够再回撤拉低价格，就是入场 的最佳时机，因为下一阶段的上涨快启动了。 晚间交易提醒： 20:00 德国5月CPI月率初值 周五（5月30日）国际黄 ...

2025.05.29 周四 文/南篱 各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 一波到位，舒坦了。 5月29日，美国一家联邦法院(美国国际贸易法院)周三阻止美国总统川普的"解放日"关税生效，裁定川普以贸易逆差等为由，援引《国际紧急经济权力法》 征收全面关税，属于越权行为。 裁决公布后，美股（尤其苹果等进口依赖企业）大涨，美元趁此蹿高一截，黄金下跌。紧急叫停的行为，黄金市场的各位长舒一口气，高位兑现离场的头寸 增加。本就收线在日线中轨3285一带的黄金，开盘看到消息之后，直线下跌，一度触及3245一带。 真棒，这两天文章的目标接连到位。3270和3250作为第二轮调整的重要分水岭，还是有多头的埋伏的，这一信息在午盘期间得以发散，目前黄金又要回到 3280一带。 这才叫，点位还是那个点位，钱变了hhh。告诉大家了，我测算出来的位置，总是要多个心思的，真要实破了随便跟，但只有影线在，非得贪那最后一个铜 板没必要。 很简单啊朋友，案件被再次上诉了。 国际贸易法院（CIT）是一个"守门人"的角色，在贸易法治甚至国之根本都快要被动摇的时候，自然是要下手的。第二步，是案件将进入联邦巡回上诉法 院，最终可至最高法院。现在还不是一锤定音 ...

短线走势来看，经过昨日的震荡调整，日布林带中轨依然维持在3290美元附近，对当前价格形成关键的 支撑。整体来看，日内短线，暂时关注3328-3366美元的震荡区间，如果向上突破，则将进一步冲击 3392美元以及3400美元附近布林带上轨的目标区。反之，若金价跌破3330美元的支撑，则有再次回探布 林带中轨3290美元一线的可能。 （作者系北京黄金经济发展研究中心研究团队） 基本面上看，上周五美国总统特朗普发表将自6月1日起对欧盟直接征收50%的关税后，避险情绪再度升 温，推动金价走高。但随后在周日，特朗普又表示已同意将与欧盟关税谈判的期限延长至7月9日，这使 得市场忧虑情绪缓和，黄金价格本周开盘略微回落。 不过，相比市场情绪波动对金价的短期影响，实物黄金需求的强劲表现则更成为金价长期涨势的有力支 撑。数据显示，4月份，自中国香港出口到内地的黄金量为58.61吨，高于3月份的21.071吨，黄金流入量 增加超一倍。这表明内地市场黄金整体需求强劲。 技术上看，从整体而言，当前金价仍然在3150-3450美元区间内运行，表明金价仍处于大的修正格局之 中。但同时也要看到，金价自3120美元低点以来的上行态势正处于中后 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Safe-Haven Sentiment Boosts Domestic Bond Market and Gold - Fixed Income & Macroeconomic Weekly Report (20250519 - 20250525)" - Report Date: May 27, 2025 - Analyst: Zhang Hesheng 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the passage of Trump's tax reform bill and the deadlock in US - EU trade negotiations have led to increased market concerns. With the potential escalation of US - EU trade conflicts and the entry of the US debt ceiling issue into the two - party negotiation stage, market risk appetite may decline. This is beneficial for the domestic bond market but may negatively impact the equity market, and gold may continue to benefit [10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Stock Market Performance - In the past week (20250519 - 20250525), US stocks declined, with the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 2.47%, 2.61%, and 2.47% respectively, and the Nasdaq China Technology Index dropping 1.33%. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.10% and the FTSE China A50 Index rose 0.08% [3]. - Most A - share sectors declined, with the Wind All - A Index falling 0.63%. Among them, the CSI A100, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 2000, and Wind Micro - Cap stocks changed by - 0.12%, - 0.18%, - 1.10%, - 1.29%, - 1.52%, and 0.04% respectively. In terms of sector styles, blue - chip and growth stocks in the Shanghai market declined, while in the Shenzhen market, blue - chip stocks rose and growth stocks fell. The North Securities 50 Index dropped 3.68%. Among industries, 9 out of 30 CITIC industries rose, with the top gainers being the comprehensive, pharmaceutical, and automotive industries, all with weekly gains of at least 1.8% [4]. Bond Market Performance - In the past week, the price of interest - rate bonds rose. The 10 - year Treasury bond futures contract rose 0.34% compared to May 16, 2025. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond increased by 4.15 BP to 1.7208%. The yields of bonds with maturities of less than 1 year, 10 years, and 30 years increased, while those of other maturities decreased [5]. - The capital price mainly declined. As of May 23, 2025, R007 was 1.6266% (a change of 0.15 BP compared to May 16), DR007 was 1.5860% (a change of - 5.14 BP), and the spread between them widened. The overnight capital costs R001 and DR001 changed by - 3.94 and - 6.61 BP respectively. The central bank had a net injection of 460 billion yuan in the past week. In May, the MLF was over - renewed by 375 billion yuan. The bond market leverage level decreased, with the 5 - day average of inter - bank pledged repurchase volume decreasing from 7.14 trillion yuan on May 16 to 6.72 trillion yuan on May 23 [6]. - US Treasury yields increased, and the yield curve shifted upward. As of May 23, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 8 BP to 4.51% compared to May 16, 2025, and the yields of all maturities increased [7]. Currency and Commodity Market Performance - The US dollar depreciated significantly, with the US Dollar Index dropping 1.84%. The US dollar depreciated against the euro, pound, and yen by 1.76%, 1.89%, and 2.15% respectively. The depreciation against the Chinese yuan was relatively small, with the offshore and onshore exchange rates dropping 0.52% and 0.20% respectively [8]. - Gold prices rose sharply. The London spot gold price rose 5.02% to $3342.65 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose 4.99% to $3351.00 per ounce. The domestic Shanghai gold price had a relatively smaller increase, with the spot price rising 4.02% to 776.40 yuan per gram and the futures price rising 3.76% to 777.98 yuan per gram [9]. Market - Influencing Events - On May 22, 2025, Trump's tax reform bill, "The One Big Beautiful Bill," passed the US House of Representatives. The bill plans to cut taxes by more than $4 trillion over the next decade and raise the US government debt ceiling by $4 trillion, which has raised concerns about the US fiscal sustainability [10]. - On May 23, 2025, Trump stated that the US - EU trade negotiations had made no progress and proposed a 50% tariff on EU imports starting from June 1. However, he later postponed the tariff to July 9. The US - EU trade negotiations are deadlocked, and future conflicts may escalate [11].

操作策略： 1.黄金建议回调3320-3325区域做多，止损在3312，目标看3355-3385，破位持有 受特朗普宣布暂停对欧盟加征高关税影响，市场避险情绪降温，现货黄金开盘后震荡下行，货币政策方面，欧洲 央行管委西姆库斯称6月仍存降息可能，美联储卡什卡利则表示9月前利率调整方向"尚不确定"。最新CME"美联 储观察"数据显示，6月维持利率不变的概率为94.4%，降息25个基点的概率为5.6%；7月累计降息25个基点的概率 升至23.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率仅为1.1%。综合来看，当前美国与多国的贸易谈判持续推进，翁富豪建议 大家重点关注谈判进展及地缘局势变化对黄金市场的影响。 从技术面分析来看，月线级别呈现四连阳走势，前三个上涨月后均出现单月回调，当前已连续四个月收涨，五月 份翁老师提醒需重点关注市场风险。周线级别显示黄金在3160区域获得有效支撑，中期看多观点维持不变，只有 跌破该支撑位才会转为下行压力。日线级别当前支撑位于3278区域，价格在此上方运行则保持上行趋势。四小时 级别关键支撑在3320-3325区间，这也是昨日低点位置，正如预期价格在此止跌回升，只要不跌破该区间就继续 关注上行走势； ...