Market Performance - Government bond futures opened high but closed higher across the board, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.37%, initially up by 0.70%. The 10-year main contract increased by 0.10%, initially up by 0.25%. The 5-year main contract rose by 0.03%, and the 2-year main contract increased by 0.02% [1] - Major interest rate bonds in the interbank market saw a rebound in yields, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Guokai 15" yield rising by 1.7 basis points to 1.9430%, the 10-year government bond "25 Fuxi Guojia 11" yield up by 1.6 basis points to 1.7590%, and the 30-year government bond "25 Super Long Special Government Bond 02" yield increasing by 3 basis points to 2.1140% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 137.8 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation on October 13, with a fixed rate of 1.40% and a full bid amount of 137.8 billion yuan. There were no reverse repos maturing that day, resulting in a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market maintained a loose funding condition, with overnight repo rates for deposit institutions hovering around 1.30%. Non-bank institutions borrowed overnight using credit bonds as collateral, with rates dropping to the 1.46%-1.48% range [2] - There is a certain demand for one-year interbank certificates of deposit at 1.66% from national and major joint-stock banks, with the latest transaction rates in the secondary market for the same term at 1.655%-1.66%, slightly down from the previous day [2] News Developments - According to customs data, China's exports in September (in RMB terms) grew by 8.4% year-on-year, up from a previous increase of 4.8%. Imports rose by 7.5%, compared to a prior increase of 1.7%. The trade surplus was 645.47 billion yuan, down from 732.68 billion yuan [3] - In USD terms, China's September exports increased by 8.3%, up from 4.4% previously, while imports grew by 7.4%, compared to a prior increase of 1.3% [3] - U.S. President Trump hinted at the possibility of canceling new tariffs on China, leading to a rise in U.S. stock index futures. Trump stated on social media not to worry about China, indicating that everything would be fine [3] Operational Recommendations - Recent signals from both China and the U.S. have been relatively mild, leading to a correction in the risk-averse sentiment previously caused by tariff conflicts, which in turn weakened the bond market [4] - The bond market outlook is complex, with attention needed on the implementation of new fund redemption fee regulations, changes in market risk appetite, and potential fluctuations in U.S.-China relations. However, the current loose funding conditions and the normalization of the yield curve limit the extent of long bond declines [4] - If the 10-year government bond yield rises above 1.8%, there may be a recovery in allocation value. Short-term treasury bonds are expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with T2512 likely maintaining a range of 107.4-108.3, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for potential adjustments [4]

金价短期预计高位震荡。短期来看，金价当前虽然再度刷新历史新高，但多方支撑力度 充足，待市场对于贸易摩擦的影响进行一定消化后，金价预期呈现高位震荡行情。首先，进 入10月，美国政府时隔7年后再度陷入停摆危机2，而美国两党依旧在预算问题上僵持，目前 尚未看到解决迹象，此举将进一步引发市场对于美元信用和美国主权债务稳定性的普遍担 忧，带动资本流入黄金市场；其次，10月29日美联储将再度召开议息会议，根据CME FedWatch公布的数据显示，美联储再度降息25个基点的概率已经上行至95.7%，基准利率水 平的走低将降低持有黄金的机会成本，带动金价上行；同时，10月7日3，我国央行披露最新 储备资产结构，9月持有黄金储备7406万盎司，规模较8月增加4万盎司，已是连续11月增加 黄金储备，体现我国央行对于金价易涨难跌的判断。 综合来看，中美贸易摩擦意外升级对于市场影响预期相对有限，短期内，金价因风险事 件的爆发所引发的避险需求带动下，上行至历史高位水平，但难以复刻4月中美关税战1.0期 间的持续牛市行情。目前阶段黄金市场多方支撑力量充足，预期待市场对于关税摩擦影响进 行充分消化后，金价或将呈现高位震荡行情。而10月爆 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have surpassed $4100 per ounce, reaching a new historical high due to rising risk aversion and the Federal Reserve initiating a rate-cutting cycle [1] - Global rare earth supply and demand are tightening, which is expected to enhance the competitiveness of the domestic rare earth industry internationally and boost prices, benefiting related mining stocks [1] Group 2 - Mining ETF (561330) has continued to rise, gaining nearly 2% during the day, driven by positive market sentiment [2] - The Mining ETF (561330) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, focusing on leading stocks in gold, rare earths, copper, and lithium, providing a comprehensive opportunity for resource stock investment [2] - The Mining ETF (561330) has seen a year-to-date increase of over 97%, outperforming related nonferrous metal ETFs by nearly 10 percentage points, indicating strong investment interest [2]

从供应端看，乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的袭击没有中断，但是俄罗斯原油出口不降反增；同时欧佩克+计划在10-11月增产13.7万 桶/日，维持温和增产态势。美国、加拿大以及巴西等非欧佩克产油国均有增产的集中释放，供应端的压力明显增大。 需求端看，美国的需求旺季结束，欧美进入炼油厂检修季节，同时近期全球最大的两个经济体贸易关系恶化，全球经济前景更 是蒙上阴影，这将不利于原油需求的改善。 黄金方面： 避险情绪明显升温将为金价提供支撑。一方面是美国特朗普政府仍然处于停摆当中，众多的经济数据延迟公布；另一方面，美 国总统特朗普宣布将在11月份对东大商品加征100%关税，并且实施关键软件出口管制，推动避险情绪升温。 另外美联储内部虽然对于降息存在分歧，但是分歧主要集中在降息的幅度以及时间节点，市场对美联储延续宽松的预期比较乐 观。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，当前在美联储延续宽松货币政策比较清晰，叠加避险情绪升温的情况下，金价维持 强势将是大概率事件。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情走高且收阳线，显示短期行情较强势。4小时线上看，行情回调测试62日均线获得支撑之后 再度走高，后续维持强势机会较大。日内关注下方410 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a rare short squeeze, with spot silver prices surging to over $52 per ounce, marking a significant increase and setting a multi-decade high, while gold prices also continue to rise, reaching a record high of over $4115 per ounce [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Concerns about liquidity in the London silver market are escalating, with current prices nearing the 1980 record of $52.5 per ounce, and the price spread between London and New York reaching unprecedented levels [4]. - Some traders are chartering transatlantic flights to airlift silver bars to London to exploit price differences, a method typically reserved for gold, with the premium for London spot silver reaching $1.4 per ounce [7]. - The leasing rate for silver in London has surged above 30%, increasing the cost for short covering, while the leasing rates for gold and palladium have also tightened, indicating strong physical demand that is depleting London’s precious metal inventories [8]. Group 2: Investment Outlook - Goldman Sachs reports that the silver market is relatively illiquid, being about one-ninth the size of the gold market, which amplifies price volatility. The absence of long-term central bank buying support for silver prices could lead to sharp corrections if investment funds withdraw temporarily [8]. - Precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, have seen cumulative increases of 55% to 82% this year, making them standout commodities for 2025. The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by central bank purchases, ETF inflows, and liquidity easing from the Federal Reserve [8]. - Bank of America analysts have raised their silver price target for the end of 2026 from $44 to $65 per ounce, citing ongoing supply shortages, expanding fiscal deficits, and a declining interest rate environment as key factors [8]. Group 3: Regulatory Concerns - Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. government report on the "Section 232" investigation into critical minerals, which includes silver, platinum, and palladium. There are concerns that if these metals are included in a new round of tariffs, it could exacerbate supply tightness and contribute to the current short squeeze [9].

Market Overview - Cryptocurrency market experienced extreme volatility, with Bitcoin dropping from $122,000 to just above $100,000, then rebounding to $114,000, while Ethereum and Dogecoin also saw significant fluctuations [1] - In the past 24 hours, 180,000 traders faced liquidation, resulting in a loss of $632 million, highlighting the speculative nature of the market [1] Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin (BTC) price: $114,835, up 3.64% in 24 hours [2] - Ethereum (ETH) price: $4,115.64, up 10.14% in 24 hours, with a trading volume of $126.4 billion, an increase of 33.28% [2] - Other notable cryptocurrencies include Solana (SOL) at $195.77 (+10.49%), XRP at $2.5133 (+5.08%), and Dogecoin (DOGE) at $0.20596 (+11.53%) [2] Regulatory Environment - The cryptocurrency market is facing increasing scrutiny from regulators, with past incidents like the LUNA crash leading to significant losses for investors [4] - Regulatory actions are seen as inevitable, with the market being compared to a casino, where risks are high and often unpredictable [4] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged to a record high of $4,060, driven by rising risk aversion amid global economic uncertainty [3] - The increase in gold ETF holdings and central bank purchases indicates a shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in October is at 97.8%, reflecting market expectations for monetary easing [3] - However, mixed signals from Fed officials suggest potential volatility in future policy decisions [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: October 13, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market closed up 0.46% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. Due to the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation, the commodity market may be under pressure in the short term [2]. - The US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish statements from Fed officials, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals, which may fluctuate strongly in the short term. Non - ferrous metals may be under pressure due to trade tensions despite supply disturbances. Black metals are likely to face pressure with weak demand and increasing external trade frictions. Energy prices may oscillate weakly due to inventory increases and geopolitical factors. Chemical products may be affected by trade frictions and oil price drops. Agricultural products may face supply shortages if the trade war persists [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.46% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 2.47%, non - ferrous and black metals rose 1.93% and 1.41% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemical products fell 0.47% and 1.63% respectively. The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased significantly, and all sectors had net capital outflows [2]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Tin, copper, and coking coal led the gains with increases of 4.1%, 3.37%, and 3.11% respectively. Pigs, eggs, and crude oil had larger declines of 8.38%, 7.64%, and 3.71% respectively [2]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: The losses from the US government shutdown, economic data uncertainty, inflation resilience, dovish Fed statements, and central bank gold purchases support precious metals. With the rising risk of the Sino - US trade war, the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Supply disturbances made the sector perform strongly during the holiday, but the re - intensification of the Sino - US trade situation led to large declines in previously strong varieties. Supply remains tight, but terminal consumption has slowed, and inventories are accumulating. The sector may be under pressure in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: During the long holiday, the apparent demand for rebar dropped significantly, production decreased slightly, and inventories increased sharply. With high - level molten iron, weakening steel mill profitability, and increasing external trade frictions, the sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: International oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, and geopolitical factors may have a negative impact on oil prices. Oil prices may oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the escalation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. - **Chemical Products**: For building materials, trade friction may be unfavorable for PVC exports, and PVC may oscillate weakly. Polyester products may be affected by trade friction and oil price drops, facing cost collapse and weak demand [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Possible US tariff increases may affect domestic soybean supplies in the first and second quarters of next year. If the trade war lasts, the overall supply may tighten in the first quarter of next year. Oils and fats may be under pressure due to the decline in crude oil prices and the uncertainty caused by the US government shutdown [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Precious Metal ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had a weekly return of around 2.94% - 2.99%. The total net asset value of gold ETFs was 1,773.72 billion yuan, with a 1.66% increase. The total net asset value of all commodity ETFs was 1,853.72 billion yuan, with a 1.83% increase [38]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical futures ETF had a - 1.28% return, the feed soybean meal futures ETF had a - 0.29% return, the non - ferrous metal futures ETF had a 3.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had a 2.61% return [38].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report period: October 13 - 17, 2025 [1] - Report title: Weekly Report on Gold and Silver Futures [2] Group 2: Gold Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, currently possibly at the end of the trend [7] - Trend logic: Last week, gold prices fluctuated upward driven by factors such as the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the risk - aversion sentiment caused by the US government shutdown, continuous central - bank gold purchases, and investment fund inflows. The overall operation logic is a triple - drive pattern of "macro - easing expectation as the foundation, risk - aversion sentiment as the catalyst, and fund inflow as the boost" [7] - Short - term risk: After the rapid price increase, the SPDR holdings decreased by 1.14 tons on October 9, and the speculative sentiment index dropped from 779.55 to 607.38. There is a need to be vigilant against technical corrections caused by the departure of profit - taking positions [7] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The gold contract 2512 faced pressure to take profits at high levels, with the lower support level at 845 - 850. It was recommended to wait and see before the holiday [10] - This week's strategy: The gold contract 2512 needs to be vigilant against technical corrections caused by the departure of profit - taking positions, with the lower support level at 898 - 903. It is recommended to wait and see [11] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference [18][21][23] Group 3: Silver Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward stage, currently at the end of the trend [31] - Trend logic: Last week, silver prices showed a pattern of "stabilizing at a low level - jumping up after the holiday - falling from a high level". The core drivers were the strengthening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, tight supply in the spot market, and the resonance of industrial and investment demands. In the future, it is expected to remain strong. In the fourth quarter, silver prices are expected to continue the upward trend under the background of loose monetary policy, an expanding supply - demand gap, and continuous geopolitical risks, but short - term fluctuations caused by profit - taking at high levels and the easing of geopolitical situations need to be watched out for [31] - Mid - term strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [31] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: It was expected that the silver contract 2512 would operate strongly, with the lower support range at 10400 - 10500. It was recommended to wait and see before the holiday [34] - This week's strategy: It is expected that silver will mainly fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the lower support range at 10700 - 11000 [35] 3. Relevant Data - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference [42][44][46]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Positive" for the gold market [5]. Core Viewpoints - The escalation of US-China trade tensions has led to increased market risk aversion, driving gold prices to new historical highs, with spot gold reaching over $4060 per ounce on October 13 [3]. - The impact of the current round of US-China trade friction is expected to be limited, as both economies have developed a basic understanding of each other's economic resilience, and upcoming high-level negotiations may lead to a consensus [4]. - The gold market is unlikely to replicate the bull market seen during the previous US-China tariff conflict, as the likelihood of tariffs being implemented is low, with only a 16.5% chance according to Polymarket data [4][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The report notes that the US stock indices fell significantly due to the trade tensions, with the Dow Jones down 1.9%, S&P 500 down 2.71%, and Nasdaq down 3.56% on the announcement day [3]. - Gold prices are expected to experience high volatility in the short term, supported by strong buying interest as the market digests the impact of trade tensions [5]. Economic Indicators - The US government is facing a shutdown crisis, which raises concerns about the stability of the US dollar and sovereign debt, potentially leading to increased capital inflows into gold [5]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with a 95.7% probability, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and support its price [7][14]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in gold-related companies, specifically mentioning Shandong Gold International (000975.SZ), Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH), and Shandong Gold Mining (600547.SH) as potential targets [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, including the U.S. government shutdown and rising geopolitical tensions, with potential for further upward movement in the short term [1][6]. Economic Overview - The U.S. consumer confidence index slightly decreased to 55, marking a five-month low, attributed to a slowing job market and persistent inflation [2]. - The U.S. manufacturing sector shows resilience, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 49.1, indicating a slight recovery in production and employment, despite a drop in new orders [2]. - High-frequency data indicates sustained consumer spending momentum, with the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow projecting a 3.8% annualized growth rate for Q3 [3]. Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding interest rate cuts, with a consensus to lower rates by 25 basis points [4]. - Political uncertainties have escalated, with the U.S. government shutdown affecting federal operations and delaying key economic data releases [5]. Gold Market Insights - The ongoing government shutdown and political deadlock are eroding the dollar's status as a global reserve currency, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves continues, with China's reserves rising to 7.406 million ounces, reflecting a sustained demand for gold [8]. - The potential impact of the U.S. government's legalization of stablecoins on dollar credibility could influence gold prices, depending on the stability of these digital assets [7].