Group 1: U.S. Military Action - The U.S. conducted a significant military operation against Iran on June 21, targeting three nuclear facilities, marking the most severe action since the 1979 Iranian Revolution [1][10] - President Trump announced the completion of the strikes, claiming that Iran's Fordow nuclear facility "no longer exists" and indicated that further targets could be struck if peace is not achieved [10][12] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the escalating conflict, global asset markets showed resilience, with major stock indices like Israel's TA35 and South Korea's KOSPI200 recording gains of over 3% from June 13 to June 20 [2][3] - Oil prices initially surged due to the conflict, with Brent crude rising by 11.48% and WTI by 8.82% during the same period, although they later stabilized [6][12] Group 3: Energy Market Implications - Analysts predict that the U.S. strikes may lead to increased oil prices and a potential panic in global markets, with concerns about the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for energy transport [13][15] - The market consensus suggests that any military action by the U.S. will be short-lived, as President Trump aims to keep gasoline prices manageable [16][17] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a rare decline during the conflict, with spot gold prices dropping below $3,370, despite initial spikes above $3,400 [6][22] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Citigroup anticipate that geopolitical risk premiums for gold may re-emerge, with predictions of gold prices peaking between $3,100 and $3,500 in Q3 2023 before declining [26]

国债期货周报 | 2025-06-22 政策预期博弈下，国债期货震荡偏强 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：5月7日国新办发布会上，央行宣布落实适度宽松政策，推出涵盖数量型、价格型和结构 型在内的一揽子十项措施，包括降准0.5个百分点、政策利率与结构性工具利率分别下调0.1和0.25个百分点、公积 金贷款利率同步下调，同时增设及扩容科技、养老、消费、涉农等领域专项再贷款，强化资本市场支持和创新债 券风险缓释机制，旨在提升信贷投放、稳定市场预期，推动经济高质量发展；5月10日，中美双方在日内瓦举行经 贸高层会谈，为时两天；5月12日，中美联合发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，声明指出中美双方 "24%的关 税在初始的90天内暂停实施，对这些商品加征剩余10%的关税。" ；5月20日，中国人民银行公布LPR下调：1年期 LPR由3.1%降至3.0%，5年期以上品种由3.6%降至3.5%，为近半年首次下调。同日，多家国有大行与部分股份制银 行同步下调存款挂牌利率，涵盖活期、整存整取及通知存款等多类型产品。此次降息与降存款利率同步实施，延 续了央行5月初提出的 "政策利率—LPR—存款利率" 联动调控路径。6月20 ...

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 6 月 22 日 周度金融市场跟踪 股票方面，本周 A 股整体下跌，小盘股走势弱于大盘股。全周累计看，沪深 300 本 周下跌 0.5%，中证1000 下跌 1.7%，中证 2000 下跌 2.2%。恒生指数本周下跌 1.5%， 恒生科技指数下跌 2.0%。行业方面，银行、通信和电子领涨。值得注意的是在市场 整体走弱的背景下，本周银行指数大幅上涨 2.6%，申万银行指数收盘至历史最高水 平。前期上涨较多的美容护理、纺织服装和医药生物领跌（图表 9），医药生物在连 续多周上涨后本周大幅下跌 4.4%。风格上，本周高估值风格（高市盈率和高市净率 指数）与低估值风格（低市盈率和低市净率指数）连续第二周走势相反（高估值下跌， 低估值上涨）。高估值资产的整体下跌体现了当前市场的避险情绪。周内看，周一（6 月 16 日）市场整体上涨，上午统计局发布经济数据，5 月份国民经济运行总体平稳、 稳中有进，全天超 3500 只股票上涨。周二（6 月 17 日）市场震荡。周三（6 月 18 日）上午陆家嘴论坛"一行两局一会"领导分别发言并发布了一系列政策举措，其中 证监会推出 ...

加密货币市场在周末遭遇短暂抛售，周日凌晨以太坊跌幅一度达到7.7%，比特币短暂跌破10.1万美元。这一轮下跌正值美国对伊朗核设施发动空 袭、地缘政治紧张局势升级之际，投资者避险情绪上升。 市场恐慌情绪导致大规模清算，24小时内约6.79亿美元的加密货币头寸被强制平仓，超过17.1万名交易者遭遇爆仓。其中最大单笔损失来自HTX 交易所的915万美元ETH多头头寸。 流动性提供商Orbit Markets联合创始人Caroline Mauron表示，市场正紧张关注持续的地缘政治发展。她指出，周末期间比特币10万美元和以太坊 2000美元将是关键观察点，而当传统市场重新开盘时，石油价格将成为特别关注的焦点。 比特币相对抗跌 相比以太坊的大幅下跌，比特币表现相对稳定。虽然一度短暂跌破10.1万美元，但在新加坡时间下午1点10分几乎持平，目前在10.2万美元上方交 易。 不过，在短暂下跌后，比特币、以太坊均探底回升，收回失地。 据央视新闻报道美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击。 以太坊遇挫 一度跌至五个月低点 以太坊（ETH）在此轮抛售中表现最为疲弱，价格一度跌至2200美元水平附近，创下自去年5 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to an increase in gold prices due to its safe-haven appeal, while the strong performance of the US dollar has exerted pressure on gold prices [5][23] - The basic metals sector is experiencing mixed trends, with copper prices remaining stable amid weak domestic demand, while aluminum prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and inventory reductions [4][18][19] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are supported by safe-haven buying, but face pressure from a strong dollar [5][23] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for various metals, with specific recommendations for companies in the sector [14][22] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices are fluctuating within a high range, with domestic consumption weakening and inventory levels increasing [12][13] - Aluminum: Prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing inventory reductions, with current prices at 20,490 CNY/ton [18][19] - Precious Metals: Gold prices have risen to an average of 786.42 CNY/gram, while silver prices have also seen a slight increase [5][23] 2. Minor Metals - Tungsten: Prices are mixed, with some products seeing slight increases while overall market activity remains subdued [6][56] - Rare Earths: Prices for light and heavy rare earths have increased, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [7] 3. Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao in the aluminum sector, as well as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Lingnan in the precious metals sector [14][22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent military action by the U.S. against Iranian nuclear facilities is expected to influence oil prices and market reactions, particularly with an initial spike in oil prices due to heightened risk and uncertainty [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the U.S. military strike, investors anticipate a potential rise in oil prices when markets reopen, driven by instinctive risk-averse behavior [3]. - Mark Spindel, CEO of Potomac River Capital, suggests that initial market reactions may include panic, leading to an increase in oil prices [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the safety of U.S. personnel abroad may contribute to increased market volatility, especially in the oil sector [3]. Group 2: Long-term Considerations - While short-term fluctuations in oil prices are likely, long-term investors should focus on broader trends rather than immediate market noise [4]. - The impact of geopolitical events on oil prices is influenced by various factors, including supply-demand dynamics, global economic conditions, and monetary policies [4]. - Investors are advised to remain calm and analyze how the market digests the news before making decisions, emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective in investment strategies [5].

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Group 1: Currency Market Overview - The US dollar index has declined for the second consecutive day, trading around 98.59, with expectations for the largest weekly gain in over a month due to safe-haven demand from Middle East conflicts [1] - The Federal Reserve has raised its interest rate targets for 2026 and 2027 to 3.6% and 3.4% respectively, indicating significant inflation risks [1] - Investor sentiment shows a strong preference for strategic dollar short positions, with the total dollar short positions nearing $40 billion, close to historical records [1] Group 2: Euro and Yen Dynamics - The euro has rebounded above the key level of 1.15 against the dollar, although its upward movement may be limited due to potential US intervention in the Middle East [5] - Japanese inflation data has exceeded expectations, supporting further rate hike expectations, which has benefited the yen [6] - The Japanese government plans to significantly reduce long-term bond issuance, with a reduction of 1.8 trillion yen in 20-year bonds, indicating a tightening fiscal policy [6] Group 3: Other Currency Movements - The Swiss franc is expected to record its largest weekly decline since mid-April due to the Swiss National Bank's rate cut to 0% [7] - The Norwegian central bank unexpectedly cut rates by 25 basis points, leading to a decline of over 1% in the Norwegian krone against the dollar [8] - Risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian and New Zealand dollars have seen a slight increase of 0.1% this week [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict and its impact on market sentiment, particularly regarding gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - It raises questions about whether the heightened risk aversion will lead to an increase in gold prices and how to assess key levels for trading strategies [1] - The mention of a live trading session indicates a focus on real-time analysis and potential investment opportunities in the gold market [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Neutral, expecting a sideways trend [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral, with a range - bound outlook [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Neutral, with a long - term upward potential for gold [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel)**: Copper - Neutral, Aluminum - Slightly Bullish, Nickel - Neutral [4] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish, with a downward trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Neutral, with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Neutral, with a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish, Glass - Bearish [8] - **Crude Oil**: Slightly Bullish [8][10] - **Methanol**: Bullish [10] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish [10] - **Cotton**: Slightly Bullish [10] - **Rubber**: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - A - share market shows cautious sentiment in the short - term, lacking upward momentum and continuing the sideways pattern. However, with increasing capital volume and clear policy support, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - The Treasury bond market is affected by overseas geopolitical issues to a limited extent. With the central bank's net injection in the open market, the bond market is running at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] - Precious metals are affected by geopolitical factors, with gold prices oscillating at a high level and a potential long - term upward movement. Silver is more volatile than gold [1][4] - Non - ferrous metals face supply - demand imbalances. Copper has supply constraints but weak demand; aluminum has supply concerns and low inventory support; nickel has an oversupply situation [4] - Carbonate lithium has an increasing supply and weak demand, with a downward price trend [4][6] - Silicon energy has sufficient supply and demand uncertainty, with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and ore markets have limited contradictions, and the pressure of raw material valuation adjustment has eased, with prices in a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - Coking coal and coke markets are bearish due to factors such as inventory accumulation and production reduction [8] - Soda ash has a high inventory and weak demand, while glass has a relatively loose supply and weak demand, both with a bearish outlook [8] - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation [8][10] - Methanol production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] - Polyolefins have stable production, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] - Cotton has a strengthening expectation of tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] - Rubber has an increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited potential for a trend - reversal [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Index Futures - Market sentiment is cautious, with limited short - term upward momentum. A - shares continue the sideways pattern, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - level long - position layout [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Overseas geopolitical issues have a limited impact on the domestic bond market. The central bank's net injection in the open market supports the bond market at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, with a potential long - term upward movement. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold short - put options. Silver is more volatile than gold, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [1][4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Copper - Supply is tight, but demand is weak due to macro uncertainties. Prices are affected by market sentiment and funds, with a sideways trend [4] 3.4.2 Aluminum - Alumina has an oversupply pressure, but the downward drive may slow down.沪铝 has low inventory support, with a slightly bullish outlook [4] 3.4.3 Nickel - The supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward momentum weakens at low prices. It is recommended to hold short - option strategies [4] 3.5 Carbonate Lithium - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price trend is downward [4][6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - Supply is sufficient, and demand is uncertain. Price fluctuations are limited, and it is recommended to hold short - put options [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore 3.7.1 Rebar - Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing at a slower pace. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term, with a weak long - term trend. It is recommended to hold short - call options [6] 3.7.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand are both increasing, with a slight inventory reduction. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.7.3 Iron Ore - Supply and demand are expected to shift from tight to balanced and slightly loose. Prices are expected to follow steel prices and move in a narrow range. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal production is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, with a bearish outlook. Coke production is decreasing, and prices are under downward pressure [8] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass 3.9.1 Soda Ash - Supply is decreasing in the short - term, but inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.9.2 Glass - Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.10 Crude Oil - Prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to hold long - call options [8][10] 3.11 Methanol - Production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] 3.12 Polyolefins - Production is stable, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] 3.13 Cotton - Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] 3.14 Rubber - Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and the potential for a trend - reversal is limited. Attention should be paid to the tire inventory cycle and demand improvement [10]