2026/01/27 宏观 宏观与地缘：中东地缘局势突发升级，波斯湾美军兵力投送加强、叙利亚油气控制权争夺 加剧，避险情绪升温；据美国财政部数据，美元指数回落至 99.8，美联储 2025 年完成三 次降息后，2026 年降息预期持续。世界黄金协会数据显示，2025 年全球央行净购金 1230 吨，中国央行连续 14 个月增持黄金，2025 年 12 月增持 3 万盎司。 市场分析：1 月 26 日亚盘期间现货黄金突破 5110 美元/盎司。金价的核心支撑为地缘避险 资金流入、央行持续购金及美元走弱，若中东局势进一步升级，金价或获更多资金面支 撑。短期压力来自金价突破 5000 美元/盎司历史新高后技术面超买，若美联储 1 月议息释 放鹰派信号，或对金价形成短期压制。 操作建议：建议重点关注中东地缘局势演变及美联储议息会议表态，以趋势跟踪为主，做 好仓位管控，避免追高操作。 白银 外盘价格:1 月 26 日亚盘期间，伦敦银现最高突破至 110 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银商业净空 持仓从 8 万手降至 5.5 万手。光伏等新能源领域用银需求 2025 年翻倍，全球矿产白银产量 较峰值下降 12%，全球白银 E ...

文 | 中国金融网(CFN) 大河 2026年1月26日，国际贵金属市场迎来历史性时刻：伦敦黄金现货最高触及5111.17美元/盎司，COMEX黄金期货峰值达5107.9美元/盎司，双双突破5100美元/ 盎司关键关口。然而，暴涨背后是极致震荡——现货黄金日内冲高2.5%后大幅回落，尾盘跌破5000美元/盎司，收涨仅0.26%；现货白银波动更为剧烈，日内 涨幅一度高达14%至117美元/盎司，最终转跌报102.8美元/盎司。这场"狂欢式震荡"不仅凸显贵金属市场的狂热情绪，更释放出多重风险升级信号，为投资者 敲响警钟。 关口告破：贵金属市场的极端行情演绎 金银价格走势分化显著，白银弹性远超黄金。今年以来银价涨幅已超50%，大幅跑赢金价17%的年内涨幅，核心源于供需矛盾与资金推动的双重叠加，但其 波动幅度也数倍于黄金，日内从暴涨14%到尾盘转跌，凸显高位投机资金的快进快出。 波动率拉满：多重因素交织下的市场博弈 贵金属高位波动率飙升，本质是短期避险情绪、中期供需格局与长期货币逻辑交织博弈的结果，而资金面的极致涌入进一步放大了波动弹性。 短期核心驱动源于避险买盘的脉冲式涌入。当前全球地缘政治与金融风险交织，美国对伊 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美方称如果加拿大同中国达成新的贸易协 议，美国将对自加拿大进口的商品加征100%关税。外交部发言 人郭嘉昆对此表示，中加构建新型战略伙伴关系，就妥善解决 中加之间的经贸问题作出一些具体安排，不针对任何第三方。 评：关税及伊朗方面的地缘政治问题持续发酵，避险情绪对黄 金存在支撑。在避险情绪推动，美元指数下跌及美联储主席更 迭等事件发酵下，黄金再度走高，但是短期黄金或受美联储议 息会议影响，注意管控风险，关注地缘扰动。 【短评-焦炭】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-66元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利-51元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利-8元/吨，内蒙二级 焦平均盈利-103元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利-11元/吨。评： 焦炭成本支撑坚挺，且钢厂后续复产预期仍在，冬储补库需求 仍存，焦炭基本面将保持健康，现货提涨落地后预计跟随成本 运行，盘面则跟随焦煤震荡运行。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月27日 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-01-27 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2026-01-27 今 日 发 现 贵金属市场剧烈波动，交易所出手降温 观点分享： 周一贵金属市场剧烈波动。COMEX 白银一度大涨超 16%，现货白银一度涨近 14%，双 双站上 117 美元/盎司关口，但随后大幅回落，上演"过山车"行情，COMEX 白银涨幅收窄 至 2.5%，现货白银转跌。COMEX 黄金现货黄金一度连续突破 5000 美元、5100 美元两道 关口，但随后涨幅持续回落，COMEX 黄金收涨 0.5%，现货黄金涨幅收窄至 0.5%，双双徘 徊于 5000 美元附近。现货钯金一度大涨 7%，最终收跌逾 3%。交易所出手为商品期货市场 降温。上期所上期能源发布通知，将白银、锡期货合约单日开仓交易限额分别下调至 800 手 和 200 手，对 16 名客户限制锡、白银期货开仓 1 个月并限制出金；将铜、国际铜、铝期货 合约涨跌停板幅度调整为 9%，套保、一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为 10%和 11%。广期所 也发布风险提示函，强调将严肃查处各类违规行为。 | 所 | 长 | 首 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The escalation of geopolitical tensions and the increased probability of a U.S. government shutdown have driven up safe-haven demand, resulting in a rise in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching a peak of $5107 before closing at $5004.8 per ounce, marking a 0.5% increase [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), increased by 2.76%, while gold stock ETFs (159562) rose by 7.58%, and non-ferrous metal ETFs (516650) gained 5.52% [1] - The probability of a U.S. government shutdown by the end of January has surged to nearly 80%, up from less than 10% the previous week, indicating heightened market anxiety [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The surge in gold prices is attributed to several factors, including uncertainty surrounding former President Trump's policies, concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve amid an investigation into Chairman Powell, and geopolitical risks from regions such as Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland [1] - Gold prices have increased by approximately 18% this month, potentially marking the largest monthly gain in over 40 years [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Institutions remain optimistic about gold's trajectory, with Goldman Sachs raising its year-end price target for gold from $4900 to $5400 per ounce [1]

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's statement that he does not rule out the possibility of reaching a diplomatic agreement with Iran has led to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - The upcoming policy to promote service consumption may have an impact on the A - share market. The market is currently in a state of rapid rotation, and the overall risk is controllable. It is recommended to continue holding long positions in stock index futures [17]. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades [20]. - The steel market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and it is advisable to hedge on rallies. The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The动力煤 market is expected to have strong price support. The iron ore market is expected to be weak in February [23][25][27][28]. - The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas. The vegetable oil market is affected by various factors, and it is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [29][33]. - The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The zinc price can be considered for buying on dips, with caution in chasing up. The lithium carbonate price is likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, and long - biased strategies can be adopted with attention to risk control [34][40][45]. - The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Attention should be paid to supply recovery and consumption improvement [49][53]. - Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes [54][57]. - The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. Low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract can be considered after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. - The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to the intensification of short - squeeze sentiment. It is recommended to shift from low - buying to cautious waiting. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. The caustic soda near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [63][65][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump will raise the tariff rate on a variety of South Korean goods to 25% due to the South Korean Congress's failure to approve and implement the previous trade agreement [10]. - Trump does not completely rule out the possibility of resolving the Iranian issue through diplomacy, leading to a short - term decline in risk - aversion sentiment and an increase in market risk appetite. The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. - Investment advice: The dollar index is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump announced an increase in the tariff rate on South Korean goods to 25%. - The US durable goods orders in November increased by 5.3% month - on - month, exceeding market expectations, mainly driven by aircraft orders. The market risk appetite has marginally improved. - Investment advice: During the earnings season, US stocks are expected to be more volatile and maintain high - level consolidation [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Policies to promote service consumption are即将推出. The A - share market is in a state of rapid rotation, with overall controllable risk. - Investment advice: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures [18]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. - The long - term bearish logic of the bond market remains unchanged. Although there is a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short after the upward momentum fades. - Investment advice: Short the bonds after the upward momentum fades [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Policies to optimize consumer goods replacement and promote the consumption of large - scale durable goods such as automobiles will be implemented. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to hedge on rallies in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy and hedge on rallies [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is fluctuating, with prices rising and falling. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. - Investment advice: The coking coal market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [25]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The FOB price of Indonesian Q3800 Panamax steam coal is maintained at $50 - 51 per ton. The price is expected to have strong support in the short term. - Investment advice: The steam coal price is expected to have strong support due to seasonal supply decline and high demand in February [27]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore market of MGX Resources showed a divergence in production and sales in the fourth quarter. The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February. - Investment advice: The iron ore price is expected to be weak in February [28]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills decreased last week. The futures price is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The soybean meal futures price is expected to remain volatile, and attention should be paid to weather conditions in South American production areas [30]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The palm oil production in Malaysia from January 1 - 25 decreased by 14.81% month - on - month, and exports increased by 7.97% month - on - month. The rapeseed oil market is affected by the uncertainty of China - Canada relations. - Investment advice: It is not recommended to take unilateral positions in rapeseed oil. Attention can be paid to arbitrage strategies [33]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $44.56 per ton on January 23. The domestic lead ingot inventory increased. The lead price is expected to remain in low - level consolidation. - Investment advice: Look for short - selling opportunities on rallies and stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - South 32's zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 increased by 25% quarter - on - quarter, and 29Metals' zinc production in Q4 increased by 72% quarter - on - quarter. The domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased. - Investment advice: Buy on dips for unilateral positions, with caution in chasing up. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [40]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will introduce overseas traders to lithium carbonate futures and options. Sigma Lithium sold 100,000 tons of high - purity lithium ore concentrate powder. - Investment advice: Adopt a long - biased strategy, look for low - buying opportunities after the position volume and volatility stabilize, and pay attention to risk control [45]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The roadblock in the Escondida copper mining area in Chile has been lifted. Zangge Mining's subsidiary's copper mine phase - II project was put into operation. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term. Stay on the sidelines for arbitrage [49]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME 0 - 3 tin was at a discount of $245 per ton on January 23. The exchange strengthened risk prevention and control. The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. - Investment advice: The tin price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations in the short term. Pay attention to supply recovery and consumption improvement [53]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is preparing to resume production. Oil prices are affected by geopolitical situations. - Investment advice: Pay attention to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation [55]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The asphalt refinery inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. - Investment advice: The asphalt price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term. Pay attention to geopolitical changes [57]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate increased. The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, with a possible further correction around the Spring Festival. - Investment advice: The urea price is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term. Consider low - buying the 05 contract after the relative valuation provides a safety margin [60]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The styrene inventory in East China ports increased. The styrene price may deviate from the industrial logic in the short term due to short - squeeze sentiment. - Investment advice: Shift from low - buying to cautious waiting for styrene. The far - end expectation game of pure benzene may not end [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price increased. The PVC export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled on April 1. The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited. - Investment advice: The PVC price may be relatively strong in the short term, but the upward space may be limited [65]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda price in Shandong decreased. The caustic soda market has high supply, weak demand, and high inventory. The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited, while the far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips. - Investment advice: The near - month contract's rebound height is expected to be limited. The far - month contract can be considered for light - position long - side layout on dips [67].

新闻 早上好，先来关注下黄金和白银。 26日晚， 白银价格加速上涨。伦敦银现货价格涨幅扩大至12%，纽约期银主力合约涨逾16%。 不过，今天凌晨，黄金与白银价格大幅回调，伦敦银现货价格转跌，报约103美元/盎司，此前最高触及117美元/盎司。伦敦金现货价格同样转跌，一度跌破 5000美元/盎司，此前在5100美元/盎司附近运行。 92.231 08:00 开启您的 T+0黄金账户>> 其全 黄金与白银在刷新历史高点后大幅回调 置顶 同花顺7x24快讯 05:24 现货白银站上11美元/盎司 置顶 同花顺7×24快讯 01-26 22:53 国际金价突破5100美元 贵金属高位震荡加剧馆 投资 期货开 加自元 网 同花顺 App 05:57 N 5110.320 昨收 5000.030 % 4983.940 买价 -38.810 -0.77% 开 5038.870 卖价 相关 ETF 2 T+0 金 ETF嘉实 2 同花顺黄金 2 银行金价 1141.75 日K 月K 王日 分时 周K 童零 最新: 5000.030 -38.810 -0.770% 5110.320 4967.360 08:00 开启您的 T+ ...

【#分析称金价急剧回调可能性正在增加#】#金价还会跌回去吗#美国纽约商品交易所交投最活跃的2月 黄金期货价格，25日傍晚在电子盘交易中突破每盎司5000美元的历史性关口。伦敦现货黄金价格当天也 突破了这一重要关口。分析人士指出，美国对格陵兰岛的野心，以及美国政府向美联储施压引发市场持 续动荡，导致投资者避险情绪高涨，为黄金近期价格上涨提供支撑。分析人士警告，经历极端上涨行情 后，黄金市场急剧回调的可能性正在增加。 @央视网 #黄金白银大回调##金价飙升原因找到了##金价波 动# #白银又上攻# 来源：扬子晚报 ...

早上好，先来关注下黄金和白银。 26日晚，白银价格加速上涨。伦敦银现货价格涨幅扩大至12%，纽约期银主力合约涨逾16%。 不过，今天凌晨，黄金与白银价格大幅回调，伦敦银现货价格转跌，报约103美元/盎司，此前最高触及117美元/盎司。伦敦金现货价格同样转跌，一度跌 破5000美元/盎司，此前在5100美元/盎司附近运行。 消息面上，据CCTV国际时讯最新报道，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"发文称，由于韩国国会未批准并落实此前与美国达成的贸易协议，美国 将提高对韩国商品征收的关税——他已决定将对韩国汽车、木材、制药产品以及其他对等关税项目的税率从15%上调至25%。 此外，特朗普在接受采访时表示，并未完全排除通过外交途径解决伊朗问题的可能性，他同时认为伊朗方面"确实希望与美国达成协议"。 据新华社报道，负责中东地区美军行动的美军中央司令部26日在社交媒体发布消息说，美国海军"亚伯拉罕·林肯"号航空母舰打击群"正部署到中东"。稍 早时候，美国哥伦比亚广播公司新闻部网站援引一名美国官员的话报道，该航母打击群已经驶入美军中央司令部辖区。 截至收盘，伦敦金现货价格下跌0.77%，报5000.2美元/盎司，较日内 ...

白银市场则更为疯狂。Investinglive分析师Adam Button称，这是白银市场"有史以来最辉煌的日子之一"，这种行情在大宗商品市场极为罕见。年初至今，白 银价格已上涨50%，远超黄金涨幅。分析指出，由于白银市场体量远小于黄金，且流动性相对较低，这使其价格更容易出现剧烈波动。 Button指出，白银已突破100美元这一关键心理关口，"本来被视为价格回调的测试点，结果却引发了惊人的上涨。"他警告称，虽然市场热情高涨，但随着 价格不断飙升，本周可能再次迎来保证金水平的调整，且券商可能收紧交易权限。 黄金价格延续涨势，在周一突破每盎司5100美元，再度刷新历史新高。此次突破不仅远超华尔街此前对黄金年内表现的预期，也成为当前全球金融市场的重 大标志事件。与此同时，白银也在同一时期大幅上涨，盘中一度突破115美元/盎司，年内涨幅已达50%，表现超越黄金。 贵金属的迅猛上涨，被广泛视为投资者对"货币贬值"风险的强烈反应。在全球政府债务持续膨胀、通胀压力挥之不去的背景下，黄金、白银等实物资产成为 市场资金竞相追逐的避风港。 布鲁金斯学会高级研究员Robin Brooks指出，黄金的飙升代表着"更大格局"的开始，即 ...