估值下降至低位， 过剩格局难以扭转 PVC周报 2025/09/27 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 02 期现市场 05 供给端 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 成本利润：乌海电石价格报2600元/吨，周同比持平；山东电石价格报2890元/吨，周同比上涨50元/吨；兰炭陕西中料730元/吨，周同比上 涨50元/吨。利润方面，氯碱综合一体化利润持续下降，乙烯制利润小幅改善，目前估值中性偏低。 ◆ 供应：PVC产能利用率79%，环比上升2%；其中电石法79.3%，环比上升2.4%；乙烯法78.1%，环比上升1%。上周供应端负荷上升，主因昊华、 金川、镇洋、英力特负荷提升，下周预期负荷进一步回升。9月整体检修量上升，但有多套装置试车投产，供应压力仍然较大。 ◆ 需求：出口方面印度反倾销税率终裁结果公示，对我国税率相比其他国家存在明显劣势，届时落地后预计出口下滑；三大下游开工上周下滑， 管材负荷 ...

Overview - In 2024, China's acrylonitrile production capacity is expected to remain at 4.399 million tons, with a production volume of 3.113 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.56% [1] - The capacity utilization rate has been declining since 2020 and is projected to recover to 70.8% in 2024, indicating an oversupply situation due to rapid expansion in domestic production [1][11] - The apparent consumption of acrylonitrile in China is forecasted to be 2.946 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of only 0.08%, highlighting a mismatch between supply and demand [1][11] Market Policies - Recent policies in China aim to promote technological innovation and industrial upgrades in the acrylonitrile sector, steering the industry towards high-end and green development [6][7] Industry Chain - The acrylonitrile industry chain includes upstream suppliers of propylene, liquid ammonia, and catalysts; midstream production; and downstream applications in ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide [7][8] Consumption Structure - The consumption of acrylonitrile is primarily concentrated in three sectors: ABS, acrylic fiber, and acrylamide, with ABS accounting for 50% of total consumption [9][10] - The household appliance sector is the largest consumer of ABS, representing over 45% of the total ABS consumption in China [9] Competitive Landscape - In 2024, the global acrylonitrile production capacity is expected to grow by 3.3%, with the top ten producers accounting for 71.6% of total capacity [12] - In China, the market concentration is high, with the top five producers holding 63.47% of the capacity, led by Sierbang Petrochemical [12][14] Development Trends - The acrylonitrile industry in China is anticipated to enter a new phase of capacity expansion in 2025, with an expected increase of over 1.3 million tons, pushing total capacity beyond 5.7 million tons [15] - However, low operating rates in downstream sectors are likely to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, leading to continued low-price fluctuations [15]

Group 1 - The petrochemical industry is facing challenges such as intensified competition in the basic organic raw materials market, insufficient supply of high-end fine chemicals, slowing domestic demand growth, and increasing external uncertainties. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and six other departments have released a growth stabilization plan for the petrochemical industry for 2025-2026, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in added value [1] - The plan emphasizes the need to strictly control new refining capacity and rationally determine the scale and pace of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity, while preventing overcapacity risks in the coal-to-methanol industry. It supports the transformation of old petrochemical facilities and the industrialization of new technologies [1][3] - The industry is undergoing a market reshuffle, with refining capacities below 2 million tons/year being phased out. Major projects such as the 20 million tons/year integrated refining and chemical project by Yulong Petrochemical and the 6 million tons/year expansion project by Daxie Petrochemical are coming online, further accelerating the market reshuffle [3] Group 2 - The chemical industry is experiencing severe homogenization issues, with a significant increase in production capacity leading to limited profit margins. The capacity utilization rate in the chemical raw materials and chemical manufacturing sector has declined from 80% in Q2 2021 to 72% in the same period this year [5] - The petrochemical industry has seen a rapid development over the past decade, with new integrated refining and chemical facilities being continuously put into operation. However, this has led to "involution" competition, where production increases do not translate into profit growth. Major petrochemical products have seen capacity and output increases of over 50% in the past five years, resulting in declining profitability for companies [5] - The growth stabilization plan suggests focusing on high value-added areas to enhance high-end supply, targeting key industries such as integrated circuits, new energy, and medical equipment. Companies with early layouts in high value-added fields are expected to benefit [6]

截至9月25日，PVC社会库存新样本统计环比增加1.84%至97.13万吨，同比增加16.23%；其中华东地区 在91.33万吨，环比增加2.18%，同比增加14.86%；华南地区在5.79万吨，环比减少3.15%，同比增加 43.35%。 截止9月25日，全国电石法PVC生产企业平均毛利：毛利-785元/吨，环比亏损增加137元/吨；全国乙烯 法PVC生产企业平均毛利：毛利-650元/吨，环比利润增加5元/吨。 机构观点汇总： 截至2025年9月26日当周，PVC期货主力合约收于4888元/吨，周K线收阳，持仓量环比上周减持18540 手。 本周（9月22日-9月26日）市场上看，PVC期货周内开盘报4894元/吨，最高触及4909元/吨，最低下探至 4874元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-0.29%。 消息面回顾： 本周PVC生产企业检修损失量在6.14万吨，较上期减少2.39万吨。 冠通期货：反内卷情绪再起，六部门联合发布建材行业稳增长工作方案，只是目前PVC产业还未有实际 政策落地，老装置也大多通过技改升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观 政策，将影响后续行情。PVC成本端支撑走强，下游 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean market is facing a crisis due to zero imports from China since April 2023, causing significant distress among American farmers and impacting political support for the Trump administration [1][2] - The U.S. government is exploring two main strategies to address the crisis: opening new markets and restarting agricultural subsidies [2][4] Group 1: Market Conditions - U.S. soybean exports to China have been stagnant, with farmers expressing frustration and calling for immediate government action [1] - China is the largest soybean importer globally, with an annual import volume of 105 million tons, of which 22 million tons are from the U.S. [2] - The loss of the Chinese market is projected to result in over $100 loss per acre for U.S. soybean farmers, even with potential subsidies [4] Group 2: Government Response - The U.S. government is attempting to diversify markets, but finding alternative buyers for the significant volume of soybeans previously exported to China is challenging [2] - Agricultural subsidies previously provided during the trade war are difficult to sustain due to high national debt and fiscal constraints [4] - The U.S. soybean industry is losing international competitiveness, with China imposing a 23% tariff on U.S. soybeans compared to only 3% on Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [4] Group 3: Industry Challenges - The crisis highlights contradictions in U.S. agricultural policy, where the government aims to maintain market share while also engaging in trade protectionism [5] - The U.S. agricultural sector is experiencing overproduction, exacerbated by government subsidies that encourage increased planting [5] - Environmental concerns are raised as U.S. agriculture contributes significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions, indicating a need for capacity reduction in the soybean industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - *ST Green Kang is divesting its photovoltaic film business by selling 100% equity of three subsidiaries to Jiangxi Raoxin New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. for cash, aiming to protect shareholder interests and improve financial health [1][4]. Group 1: Company Background - *ST Green Kang, originally focused on veterinary drug development and sales, shifted to the photovoltaic film industry in 2022 due to persistent losses in its core business [2]. - The company acquired Green Kang Yushan for 95 million yuan, despite its book value being only 160,350 yuan, indicating a significant overvaluation at the time of purchase [2][4]. Group 2: Financial Performance - The company has faced substantial losses, reporting a net loss of 222 million yuan in 2023, which is expected to increase to 445 million yuan in 2024, totaling over 700 million yuan in losses within two and a half years [4][5]. - As of June 2023, *ST Green Kang's debt-to-asset ratio surged to 105.82%, indicating a state of insolvency [5]. Group 3: Industry Context - The photovoltaic film industry experienced a downturn from 2023 to 2024, with oversupply leading to declining prices for POE, EVA, and EPE films, adversely affecting *ST Green Kang's profitability [5][6]. - The company's subsidiaries reported negative gross margins in 2024, with Green Kang Yushan at -19.28%, Green Kang Haining at -35.96%, and Green Kang New Energy at 0.41% [5]. Group 4: Strategic Implications - By divesting the loss-making photovoltaic film business, *ST Green Kang aims to refocus on its core veterinary products, enhancing its profitability and sustainability [7]. - The exit from the photovoltaic sector reflects a broader trend of companies withdrawing from the industry amid significant adjustments, with several other firms also choosing to leave [7][8].

反内卷政策或带来双重拐点。正如前文分析，当前各行业反内卷政策的执行核心集中于产能调控与价格 引导，我们认为，反内卷政策或将催生双重拐点。第一，"反内卷"有望推动产能过剩下行拐点出现；第 二，随着产能过剩化解进程加快，PPI也有望迎来上行拐点。不过需要注意的是，"反内卷"过程中可能 出现制造业增长动能阶段性衰减的情况，要同时实现稳增长目标，还需同步配套需求侧政策工具。若能 辅以有效的扩大需求举措，本轮"反内卷"政策的持续落地有望为资本市场带来牛市支撑。 风险因素："反内卷"推进低于预期，地缘政治风险突发，历史规律可能会失效等。 信达证券主要观点如下： 反内卷从政策定调到逐步落地。本轮"反内卷"政策的起点可追溯至2024年7月中共中央政治局会议，该 会议首次明确提出防止"内卷式"恶性竞争；至2024年12月，政策重心从初期的风险预警逐步转向具体整 治行动。进入今年以来，"反内卷"不仅成为多场高层会议的高频议题，相关配套政策也进一步落地至可 执行层面，具体涵盖统一大市场建设、十大行业稳增长方案等举措，政策的逐步细化为后续行业层面的 落地实施奠定了基础。 不同行业反内卷方式或有差异，但始终围绕产能调控和价格引导。不同 ...

每经记者｜彭斐 每经编辑｜魏官红 随着集中检修季进入尾声，山东地方炼厂的开工率呈现持续回升的态势。 根据隆众资讯的最新数据，截至9月25日的当周，山东地炼常减压开工率已攀升至53.49%，不仅实现了连续七周的上涨， 更创下了今年以来的最高纪录。 《每日经济新闻》记者注意到，这一涨势始于8月7日当周的46.87%开工率，标志着市场供应正逐步恢复。彼时，受燃料油 税改及油轮接卸新规等多重因素影响，山东地炼开工率曾在2月28日当周跌至43.17%，创下自2020年4月以来的新低。 不过，在看似回暖的景象之下，仍有寒流侵袭着地方炼厂的盈利能力。与持续走高的开工率形成鲜明对比的是，炼油利润 正经历下滑。数据显示，截至9月25日，山东独立炼厂加工进口原油日度综合利润跌至132.83元/吨，较9月上旬利润缩水近 六成。 更广泛的行业背景是，中国炼油产业正面临着结构性挑战。新能源汽车的加速替代以及过去几年炼化项目集中投产带来的 巨大产能，构成了行业产能过剩的困局。 创年内新高，山东地炼开工率实现"七连涨" 进入2025年下半年，山东地炼的生产节奏明显加快。 根据隆众资讯的数据，截至9月25日的当周，山东地炼常减压装置的产能利 ...

据悉，茨维考与埃姆登两家工厂均为大众汽车专门生产电动汽车的工厂。其中，茨维考工厂主要负责生 产ID.3、ID.4以及奥迪Q4 e-tron等车型；埃姆登工厂则以生产ID.7车型为主，同时也承担部分ID.4车型 的生产任务。此次停产计划将对上述ID系列车型的交付产生影响，不过奥迪Q4 e-tron车型的生产不会受 本次停产波及，将照常推进。 【环球网科技综合报道】9月27日消息，据路透社报道，大众汽车集团发言人证实，其位于德国的茨维 考工厂将于10月8日起暂时停产一周。与此同时，有知情人士透露，大众已对德国埃姆登工厂下达削减 工时计划，预计未来该工厂也将停产数日。 来源：环球网 为应对当前发展困境，避免工厂大规模关闭，大众汽车此前已制定规划，计划在2030年前于德国市场裁 员3.5万人。值得注意的是，茨维考工厂与埃姆登工厂因签订有保护就业相关协议，此次裁员计划不会 对这两家工厂的员工岗位造成影响。（纯钧） 作为欧洲电动汽车市场的重要参与者，大众汽车今年上半年表现亮眼，在欧盟区电动汽车销量超越特斯 拉，成为该区域最大的电动汽车品牌。但在市场销量增长的背后，大众汽车内部也面临着产能过剩、市 场需求放缓等挑战。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pig market is experiencing a downturn despite the traditional peak season, with prices dropping and concerns over excess production capacity [1][2][3] Price Trends - As of September 26, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China is 12.71 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day, with half of the regions experiencing prices in the "5 yuan pig price zone" [1] - The average price of pigs in the third week of September was 13.85 yuan/kg, and the average pork price was 24.51 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.8% decrease from the previous week [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - High inventory levels and the release of production capacity by leading enterprises are contributing to the oversupply in the pig industry, compounded by weak consumer demand [2][3] - The number of breeding sows is projected to reach a high of 40.8 million by November 2024, indicating sustained supply levels [2] Industry Adjustments - Major pig farming companies are actively reducing production capacity, with a consensus on the need for quality improvement and capacity reduction [5][6] - Companies like Wens Foodstuffs and New Hope are implementing measures to control the number of breeding sows and reduce average slaughter weights [8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the market may stabilize by November as excess capacity is gradually absorbed, with potential for price recovery [5][6] - The industry is expected to evolve into a "three-three" structure, balancing large enterprises, specialized farms, and medium-sized family farms to better withstand cyclical fluctuations [9]