华金期货品种报告 产业分类：新能源-双硅 分析师：马园园 执业资格证号： F3059193/Z0016074 华金期货有限公司 交易咨询 公楼 22 层 电话：400-995-5889 资决策的唯一参考因素，亦不 应认为本报告可以取代自己的 判断。 本报告版权仅为本公司所 明出处，且不得对本报告进行 任何有悖原意的引用、删节和 修改。 工业硅、多晶硅 2026 年策略报告 期货研究报告 双硅产能过剩，"政策"落地执行为关键变量 报告日期：2025.12.31 报告内容摘要： 工业硅： 2025 年工业硅价格经历了"下跌-反弹-震荡"行情，与其基本面 供需现况基本吻合。2026 年来看，供应端：新增产能投放&淘汰落后 产能叠加下，产能仍然过剩，供应较大程度取决于企业根据需求与利 润的动态调整，预计小增；需求端：多晶硅、有机硅在 2025 年"低 基数"基础上有所增加，而铝合金维持平稳增长。主流价格区间预计 在 7600 元/吨-9400 元/吨，价格重心或较当前有所下移。 经营范围：商品期货经纪、金 融期货经纪、资产管理、期货 地址：天津市和平区五大道街 南京路 183 号世纪都会商厦办 重点关注：成本端重点关 ...

年度报告——锰硅/硅铁 产能过剩未解，成本博弈深化 | . | | --- | | 走势评级: | [★Ta锰bl硅e_：Su产mm能a持ry]续投放，成本支撑弱化 黑 色 供应方面，硅锰行业虽整体延续产能过剩格局，但由于电力在生产成 本中占比显著，内蒙古等西北低电价区域仍具备明显的成本优势，推 动该地区新增产能继续释放，供应呈逐步增加态势。根据钢联统计， 2026 年计划投产规模约 286.32 万吨，预计全年硅锰供应仍将保持增量。 成本方面，2026 年锰矿供应增量主要来自 South32 上半年产量的同比 恢复，但矿山端挺价意愿较强，若价格下行可能引发部分供应收缩， 因此成本端的下行压力更多来自电价。电价方面，在新能源装机增长、 电力结构优化的背景下，2026 年电价预计仍有下调空间。需求方面， 2026 年建材需求虽仍处于下行通道，因此在建材终端需求尚未扭转跌 势的背景下，预计硅锰需求将同步承压。 金 ★硅铁：供应持续增加，需求难支撑 属 供应方面，硅铁与硅锰行业相似，在产能明显过剩的背景下，新增产 能仍在向成本优势地区集中投放。根据钢联统计，预计 2026 年硅铁新 增产能约 103.8 万吨，多数 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Petroleum (601857.SH) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3][10] Core Views - The group has demonstrated confidence by increasing its stake, with plans to invest between RMB 2.8 billion and RMB 5.6 billion in A-shares and H-shares. As of December 29, 2025, the group has cumulatively increased its holdings by 30 million A-shares and 11.896 million H-shares [4][5][7] - The company has a sulfur production capacity exceeding 3.5 million tons per year, and rising sulfur prices are expected to enhance performance. The average price of solid and liquid sulfur has increased by over 150% year-on-year, reaching RMB 3,750/ton and RMB 3,800/ton respectively [5][8] - The closure of overseas refineries, combined with domestic capacity control, positions the company as a leader in refining, ethylene, and aromatics, likely benefiting from the current market dynamics [6][9] Summary by Sections Stake Increase - China Petroleum Group announced plans to increase its stake in the company, with a total investment of RMB 2.8 billion to RMB 5.6 billion in A-shares and H-shares. As of December 29, 2025, the group has increased its holdings by 30 million A-shares and 11.896 million H-shares [4][5][7] Sulfur Production and Pricing - The company has a sulfur production capacity of over 3.5 million tons per year. Due to supply constraints from Russian refineries and strong demand from the phosphate fertilizer and acid production sectors, sulfur prices are expected to rise, significantly boosting profits. Current average prices for solid and liquid sulfur are RMB 3,750/ton and RMB 3,800/ton, with year-on-year increases exceeding 150% [5][8] Refining and Petrochemical Market - The national refining capacity has surpassed 1 billion tons per year, but the utilization rate has dropped to around 70%, indicating structural overcapacity of over 300 million tons. The company is expected to benefit from the strict control of new refining projects and the adjustment of production schedules for ethylene and paraxylene, as outlined in the "Petrochemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" [6][9] Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company remains unchanged, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at RMB 167.4 billion, RMB 170.9 billion, and RMB 174 billion respectively. The diluted EPS is projected to be RMB 0.91, RMB 0.93, and RMB 0.95 for the same period, with current A-share PE ratios of 11.2, 11.0, and 10.8 times [10]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for ethylene glycol shows mixed trends, with futures prices experiencing a slight decline while spot prices have increased in certain regions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 31, the main contract for ethylene glycol futures has decreased by 0.78%, settling at 3804.00 CNY/ton [1]. - On December 30, the closing price for ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang rose by 19 CNY/ton to 3702 CNY/ton, while the price in the South China market increased by 10 CNY/ton to 3850 CNY/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - A 200,000-ton ethylene glycol unit in South China was restarted on December 25, with some products already being produced. This maintenance was for catalyst replacement, and the unit is expected to operate at full capacity going forward [2]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Downstream polyester operating rates have decreased to 89.7%, indicating a slight weakening in demand support. In November, the total export volume of polyester products was 1.2194 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7.5% and a year-on-year increase of 9.78% [2]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The outlook suggests that a new wave of production will exacerbate the oversupply of ethylene glycol, with price adjustments likely leading to marginal capacity shutdowns. Although short-term fluctuations may stabilize prices, the overall oversupply situation is expected to persist, maintaining a bearish market sentiment [2].

| X | | --- | | 12 | | --- | | 免责声明 | 能化板块研发报告 供需双弱持续，原料风险关注 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 2025 年沥青市场走势由成本、政策及供需格局共同主导。年初低开工 低库存叠加冬储需求释放，现货价格上行；2 月油价走弱，节后需求复苏 不及预期引发累库，叠加美对委制裁扰动原料贴水，期价冲高回落，3 月 委政策反复加剧贴水预期反转。二季度油价宽幅震荡，4 月受衰退担忧与 OPEC + 增产拖累下跌，6 月伊以冲突助推油价大涨，期价同步上行，炼 厂利润持续承压。下半年价格震荡下行，三季度旺季北强南弱，供应充裕叠 加原油走弱压制价格；四季度供应过剩，南北需求陆续收尾致库存攀升，价 格续跌，12 月北方冬储托底稳价，南方供应增量拖累价格下行。 【市场展望】 2026 年沥青行业产能过剩格局未改但出清提速，无新增产能，资源向 有配额及产业链一体化优势炼厂集中，供应环比收紧。作为 "十五五" 开 局年，沥青终端需求启动慢，重心转向存量养护，改性沥青预期存在增量。 上半年在低供应支撑下，库存水平预期整体偏低，但下半年需求偏弱的状态 下，去库速度预期放缓，年底库存水平偏 ...

2025年第三季度以来，受益于储能需求释放等因素拉动，磷酸铁锂行业出现量价齐升，呈现强劲复苏态 势。头部企业几乎全部满产，部分企业甚至超负荷生产，出现"挑订单"的紧俏局面，一些企业订单甚至 已排至2026年上半年。 进入12月份，锁单、扩产在磷酸铁锂行业不断涌现。记者注意到，面对行业回暖，不少磷酸铁锂厂商选 择与下游客户签订长期采购协议，也有磷酸铁锂厂商积极通过定增募资的方式扩充产能，积极把握市场 高速增长的机遇。 如今，在行业火热发展的情况下，磷酸铁锂企业的逆势减产操作，引发了业界关注。 巨丰投顾高级投资顾问丁臻宇向记者表示，从产业链看，磷酸铁锂处于行业中游，受上下游两头挤压。 上游碳酸锂、磷化工等原材料价格波动大，且上游多为规模化矿产或化工企业，议价能力强。同时，下 游磷酸铁锂厂商多数与头部电池厂绑定，下游产业集中度高、订单锁定周期长，磷酸铁锂材料企业同样 议价权不强。 本报记者 冯雨瑶 据记者梳理，12月25日至12月29日，包括湖南裕能新能源电池材料股份有限公司、湖北万润新能源科技 股份有限公司、深圳市德方纳米科技股份有限公司、贵州安达科技能源股份有限公司（以下简称"安达 科技"）、江苏龙蟠科技集团股 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall valuation of the industrial silicon industry is neutral, and there are structural opportunities in the low - valuation area [3][47] - The polysilicon industry is still policy - dominated, and its development is affected by policy implementation and dynamic adjustment [5] Core Views of the Report - In 2025, the industrial silicon industry featured "costs first decreasing then increasing, stable production growth, differentiated regional开工率, and prominent over - capacity". In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with over - capacity as the core issue [1][3] - In 2025, the polysilicon industry was strongly affected by policies, showing characteristics of "ineffective pricing mechanism, production recovery in the second half of the year, and demand fluctuating with the photovoltaic industry chain". In 2026, it may show a situation of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: View Summary 1.1 Summary - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2025, costs first decreased due to lower raw material prices in the first half and then increased as coal prices rose in the second half. Production increased steadily, with开工率 showing regional and phased differences. Exports were weakly stable, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [1] - **Polysilicon**: In 2025, the pricing mechanism was ineffective. Production recovered in the second half, and demand was "high in the front and low in the back" affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave". After the anti - involution policy in June, profits rebounded, and the industry's production enthusiasm was boosted [2] 1.2 Future Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand balance will remain loose, with an expected supply growth rate of about 4.3% and a demand growth rate of about 5%. Attention should be paid to cost and price changes and the risk of short - term supply - demand mismatches [3] - **Polysilicon**: In 2026, it may show a "supply increase and demand decrease" situation, with a supply growth rate of about 3.7% and a demand growth rate of about - 10%. The profit transmission in the industrial chain is the key observation point, and policy implementation should be focused on [5] Chapter 2: Market Review 2.1 2025 Industrial Silicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price declined due to weak supply - demand and pricing restructuring caused by the new delivery system. Supply increased, and demand was weak. Although there were short - term sentiment boosts, the overall supply - surplus situation remained [6] - **Second Quarter**: The price continued to decline due to high inventory, weak downstream demand, cost collapse expectations, and regional supply increases [7] - **Third and Fourth Quarters**: In the third quarter, the price rose due to the "anti - involution" sentiment, cost support, and downstream demand. In the fourth quarter, it was affected by the expected production cut in the polysilicon industry and profit - taking [7][8] 2.2 2025 Polysilicon Market Price Trend - **First Quarter**: The price fluctuated widely, driven by industry expectations and chain sentiment, with price increases at the beginning and drops after the Spring Festival [10] - **Second Quarter**: The price declined due to supply - demand deterioration, with a 14% drop in April. There were short - term rebounds but then continued to fall [11] - **Third Quarter**: The price rose significantly due to the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations [11] - **Fourth Quarter**: The price fluctuated in a range with a rising center, affected by policy expectations and supply - demand in the spot market [11] Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Industrial Silicon - **Cost**: In 2025, costs decreased in the first half and increased in the second half, mainly due to raw material price changes [13] - **Supply**: Production increased steadily due to low start - stop costs and flexible production.开工率 was supported by cost collapse in the first half and profit recovery in the second half. Xinjiang had high开工率, and the Southwest had seasonal fluctuations [18][20] - **Import and Export**: Exports were affected by policies and overseas supply, and were expected to be weakly stable in 2026, with an estimated volume of 70 - 74 tons [23] - **New Capacity in 2026**: The industry was over - capacity, and the new planned capacity was about 45 tons, mainly integrated capacity [25] 3.2 Polysilicon - **Cost**: The cost was composed of electricity, silicon powder, and other auxiliary costs, and the market - based pricing mechanism was temporarily ineffective [27] - **Supply**: In 2025, production decreased in the first half and recovered in the second half after the anti - involution policy [29] - **Terminal Demand**: In 2025, demand was affected by the "531 rush - to - install wave", showing a "high - then - low" trend. In 2026, demand growth may be - 10% due to policy changes [31][5] - **Component Import and Export**: China's photovoltaic component exports were strong in 2025, with high volumes in the first half and a surge in the second half [33] - **Photovoltaic Power Generation**: In 2025, China's solar power generation reached 461.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 38.12%, providing key support for green - power supply [35] 3.3 Organosilicon - In 2025, the industry had high capacity, weak demand, and low开工率, with marginal improvement at the end of the year. In 2026, the supply - demand situation was uncertain [38] 3.4 Aluminum Alloy - In 2025, the domestic aluminum alloy industry had stable production growth, with a cumulative output of about 10.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 5.8%. In 2026, demand for industrial silicon was expected to continue to grow [40][41] Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 4.1 Valuation Feedback - **Industrial Silicon Profit**: Since May 2025, profits have increased due to lower hydropower costs and the "anti - involution" policy. The overall valuation is neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and price changes and enterprises with cost advantages or product - structure optimization capabilities [45][47] - **Polysilicon Profit**: Since June 2025, profits have rebounded rapidly, and the current profitability is good. Attention should be paid to profit transmission in the industrial chain [49][52] 4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - **Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply growth rate is expected to be about 4.3%, and the demand growth rate is about 5%. The over - capacity situation remains, and attention should be paid to production fluctuations caused by the hydropower season change [53] - **Polysilicon Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2026, the supply may increase by about 3.7%, and the demand may decrease by about 10%, with a slight supply - demand surplus [55]

暴跌10.9%，最近官方报道，咱们的钢厂减产已经严重超过了预期，每产一吨就要亏损91元，在这样的情况下，十分不利于咱们的钢产业发展，面对这如此 严峻的形势，咱们的钢产业又该如何发展？ 全球钢铁市场正上演一幕令人费解的场景，11月份，中国粗钢产量同比下跌10.9%，这一跌幅创下近年来的历史峰值，彰显国内钢铁行业正经历深度调整。 诡异的是，产量大幅收缩的同时，中国钢铁出口却走出逆势上涨行情，同比增幅达到8%，产量与出口的反向背离，打破了行业常规运行逻辑，背后暗藏的 产业困境与转型压力值得深究。 摩根士丹利12月中旬发布的最新行业报告，精准点破了这一悖论的核心。报告指出，国内钢铁需求已陷入彻底恶化状态，过剩产能在本土市场找不到消化出 口，只能被迫转向海外寻求出路。 这波出口增长绝非行业景气度提升的信号，反而折射出国内需求疲软下的产能外溢困境。 《中国冶金报》此前刊发的调研数据显示，当钢铁行业出现"产量跌、出口增"的背离时，往往伴随国内终端需求的大幅萎缩。 从全球视野俯瞰，11月全球钢铁产量同比下跌4.6%，跌幅创下年内最低水平，这一全球数据的下滑，几乎完全由中国市场拖累所致。 世界其他地区的钢铁产量非但没有下跌，反 ...

Core Viewpoint - The nylon 6 industry is facing significant challenges due to structural overcapacity, with rapid production expansion outpacing demand growth, leading to a decline in industry profit margins and increased competition. The industry must shift from scale expansion to value enhancement, focusing on high-end and differentiated products to navigate these challenges [2][3][7]. Overview - Nylon 6, also known as PA6 or polyamide 6, is a crucial synthetic fiber and engineering plastic material with diverse applications, including textiles, automotive parts, and food packaging. China has become the global center for nylon 6 production, accounting for over 50% of global capacity and consumption [2][3][6]. Industry Chain Analysis - The nylon 6 industry chain includes key components such as caprolactam, nylon 6 chips, fibers, engineering plastics, films, and composite materials. Caprolactam is a vital raw material for producing nylon 6 chips, which are further processed into various products [10][11][12][15]. Market Supply and Demand - Global nylon 6 production capacity is primarily concentrated in China, which holds 57% of the total capacity, followed by Western Europe at 11%. The demand for nylon 6 is expected to grow significantly in China over the next 5-10 years [18][20][22]. Domestic Supply and Demand Forecast - China's nylon 6 chip production and consumption have shown steady growth, with production increasing from 312,000 tons in 2018 to 502,500 tons in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 10%. The import dependency for nylon 6 chips has decreased from 11.15% in 2018 to 4.68% in 2023 [25][28]. Production Capacity Distribution - As of the end of 2023, China's caprolactam production capacity reached 6.53 million tons, with 11 companies holding 75.19% of the total capacity. The nylon 6 chip production capacity exceeded 5.34 million tons, with 25 companies contributing to this output [36][39]. Competitive Landscape - The nylon 6 industry is characterized by increasing competition, particularly in the caprolactam and nylon 6 chip segments. Companies are encouraged to enhance their technological capabilities and explore international markets to mitigate overcapacity issues [47][48]. Technological Features - The nylon 6 production process has evolved significantly, with various polymerization techniques employed, including single-stage and two-stage polymerization. The industry is also focusing on improving spinning and twisting technologies to enhance product quality [51][53]. Industry Barriers and Challenges - The nylon 6 industry faces several barriers, including high capital requirements, technological complexities, and increasing competition. New entrants must overcome significant challenges to compete effectively in this mature industry [57][58].

以下文章来源于科创板日报 ，作者吴旭光 科创板日报 . 专注科创板和科技创新，上海报业集团主管主办，界面财联社出品。 又一家磷酸铁锂企业宣告停产检修。 继湖南裕能、万润新能、德方纳米之后， 安达科技于12月26日盘后发布公告，宣布自2026年1月1日起对部分产线开展为期一个月的停产 检修。 多家头部企业宣告按下检修"暂停键"， 背后是碳酸锂等上游原材料涨价、下游电芯企业拒接涨价传导的双重挤压， 而当前新能源汽车与储 能市场需求持续回暖，行业呈现"需求旺而盈利弱"的反差格局，加剧了企业的成本压力与亏损困境。 市场表现方面，截至12月26日收盘， 磷酸铁锂板块整体上涨2.11%， 安纳达、丰元股份强势涨停，万润新能、湖南裕能等个股亦跟涨明 显。 多家头部企业密集宣布检修 连日来，磷酸铁锂龙头接连宣告减产检修。 其中，12月26日早间，德方纳米公告，为保障公司产品质量，计划进行年度设备检修与维护工作，检修时间从2026年1月1日起，预计一个 月；紧随其后，12月26日盘后，安达科技亦发布停产检修公告，称自2026年1月1日起，公司将对部分产线进行检修，为期一个月。 更早前，12月25日，湖南裕能、万润新能接连宣布减 ...