今日沪期铅走势：今日沪期铅小幅下跌，沪铅主力合约2603开盘报17115元，高点17165元，低点16945 元，结算价17035元，收盘17000元/吨，跌135元，跌幅0.79%。伦铅最新价报2035.5美元，跌0.5美元。 今日ccmn铅价统计，今日ccmn长江综合1#铅价报16910-17010元/吨，均价16960元，跌100元；广东现货 市场1#铅报16835-16935元/吨，均价16885元，跌125元。今日现货铅市场报价在16825-17010元/吨之 间，对比沪期铅2602合约贴水110-升水75元/吨，沪期铅2603合约贴水160-升水25元/吨。 ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小跌，铅价急跌迎岁末 宏微观共振压估值，铅价承压的首要因素是 宏观情绪的转变。美国最新经济数据展现出超预期韧性，导致市场对美联储提前降息的乐观预期迅速降 温，美债收益率随之走高，这直接压制了包括铅在内的金属资产估值。同时，全球资金风险偏好出现结 构性分化，对新兴市场资产的谨慎态度加剧了有色金属板块的整体资金流出压力。今日长江现货市场铅 价震荡回调。 供应压力：冶炼复产与库存累积 供应端的宽松是价格下跌的基本面 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the need for a systematic reshaping of macro governance paradigms through "three rebalances," aiming to establish a new starting point for high-quality development in 2026, which is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] - The report identifies the main contradiction in the economy as "strong supply and weak demand," highlighting the necessity for policies to focus on expanding domestic demand while addressing structural issues [2][3] - The macroeconomic policy framework for 2026 is expected to prioritize internal demand, reform, and innovation, aiming for high-quality development while balancing external and internal factors [3] Group 2 - In 2025, the economic operation showed a steady improvement supported by proactive macro policies, with industrial production demonstrating resilience and a shift towards high-tech industries [2][12] - The report notes that the external demand has been stronger than internal demand, with exports playing a significant role in supporting economic stability [3][33] - The investment landscape remains challenging, particularly in real estate, while manufacturing investment is buoyed by equipment renewal policies [2][3] Group 3 - The economic outlook for 2026 suggests a moderate GDP growth target of around 5%, with growth driven by improvements in domestic demand and supply efficiency [4] - Price indicators are expected to show a mild upward trend, with PPI likely to recover due to improved supply-demand dynamics and global manufacturing inventory cycles [4][33] - The market dynamics are shifting from liquidity-driven growth to profit-driven growth, particularly in the midstream manufacturing sector, which is expected to see significant profit recovery [4][33]

研究报告 能繁去化不及预期 供应压制磨底延续 华龙期货投资咨询部 研究员：刘维新 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 市场对上半年生猪出栏压力延续的担忧持续升温，引发盘面 集中抛压，上周生猪期货盘面震荡走弱，截至上周五收盘，生猪 期货主力 LH2603 合约报 11565 元/吨，涨 0.26%。 【基本面分析】 报告日期：2026 年 1 月 26 日星期一 上周猪价先涨后跌，周均价重心上移，全国生猪出栏均价报 12.87 元/公斤，环比上涨 1.42%；仔猪周均价 343.33 元/头，环 比涨 11.09%，养殖户节前提前补栏控成本、集团场刚性补栏及部 分区域产能去化共同提振需求；二元母猪市场交投清淡，二元母 猪均价 1431 元/头，后备养殖户补栏积极性偏低；淘汰母猪价格 随猪价回暖上行，全国均价 9.77 元/公斤，环比涨 2.84%，养殖 端惜淘情绪浓厚；标肥价差环比走扩至-0.75 元/公斤，气温走低 ...

Group 1 - Economic growth has shown improvement in 2025, with a "strong supply and weak demand" situation still prevailing, but price indicators are moving in a positive direction [1][3] - Production data for December 2025 shows improvement compared to November and October, as well as a quarter-on-quarter improvement from Q4 compared to Q2 and Q3 [1][3] - The narrowing decline in PPI and the expansion in CPI, along with a significant reduction in the year-on-year decline of the GDP deflator index in Q4, indicate positive trends [1][3] Group 2 - Demand-side indicators remain relatively weak, with December's retail sales and fixed asset investment showing slight negative growth on a month-on-month basis [1][3] - Capacity utilization rates in manufacturing and mining sectors are still experiencing a year-on-year decline [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core of soda ash futures is "strong supply, weak demand, high inventory, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. Fundamentals are dominated by negative factors. There is a long - short game in the market, but the bears are in the dominant position, and there is no substantial rebound in the short term." The SA2605 main contract fluctuated weakly in the range of 1,190 - 1,230 yuan/ton this week and closed at 1,193 yuan/ton on January 16th. The 20 - day moving average formed a suppression. The trading volume of SA2605 exceeded 5.71 million lots this week, and the open interest reached 1.196 million lots, making it the most active contract in the entire market, indicating high - level participation of funds. The net short position of the main contract continued to increase, with the bears increasing their positions more aggressively than the bulls, and the market sentiment was bearish. - The core suppression factors are strong supply, weak demand, and high inventory. Although there were small rebounds driven by the sentiment in the chemical sector, they lacked fundamental support and quickly declined. Downstream players were highly cautious, mainly making purchases based on rigid demand, and speculative demand was not sustainable. In the short term, the market is expected to remain fluctuating weakly, with the reference range of 1,180 - 1,230 yuan/ton. In the medium term, the oversupply situation is difficult to change, and it is advisable to short on rallies, paying attention to the pressure level around 1,300 yuan/ton. It is recommended to mainly observe or take small - short positions in the short term and set stop - losses. In the medium term, short positions can be established after rebounds [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - This week, the fundamental pressure on the soda ash market remained unchanged. The supply side continued to operate at a high level, inventory continued to accumulate, and the weak demand for heavy soda ash dragged down the overall trend. Although the futures price fluctuated downward, the downward space was limited due to the cost bottom line and the structural demand for light soda ash. The market is still in a volatile pattern of "weak reality and expectation - based game" in the short term [2] Supply - The weekly output of soda ash this week was 77.53 tons. As of January 15th, the national operating rate of soda ash remained at a high level of 86.82%, among which the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process was 89.95%, and that of the co - production process was 78.88%. The capacity utilization rate was stable, and the release rhythm of new production capacity did not slow down. The weekly output reached 75.36 tons, showing a significant month - on - month increase, and the pressure on the supply side continued [2] Demand - The daily melting volume of float glass this week was 150,700 tons, an increase of 680 tons month - on - month, while that of photovoltaic glass was 87,200 tons, a decrease of 950 tons. The demand for heavy soda ash was affected by the slight decline in the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass, and the rigid demand for heavy soda ash continued to weaken, with low purchasing willingness from downstream players. The operating rate of the lithium carbonate industry remained above 87%, providing stable support for light soda ash and becoming the main supporting force on the demand side [2] Inventory - As of January 15th, the total inventory of soda ash manufacturers nationwide was 1.575 million tons, an increase of 10,300 tons (+0.66%) week - on - week, with inventory accumulating for multiple consecutive weeks, and the inventory pressure showed no sign of relief. The inventory of heavy soda ash increased from 720,700 tons on January 12th to 738,000 tons, an increase of 17,300 tons week - on - week, reflecting the weak demand in the downstream glass industry. The inventory of light soda ash slightly decreased from 844,000 tons to 837,000 tons, indicating relatively resilient demand on the light soda ash side. The social inventory increased slightly, with the total amount exceeding 380,000 tons, an increase of over 10,000 tons. The previous replenishment transactions of futures - cash traders were good, and enterprises were gradually making deliveries [2] Profit - The production cost of soda ash remained at a high level, and the industry as a whole was in a state of deep loss. Although the price fluctuations of steam coal pushed up the cost, the long - term loss in the industry suppressed the willingness for active production cuts. The cost line became an important support for the price decline, forming a weak equilibrium pattern of "low profit + high inventory" [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's rise in the soda ash market was more of a rebound driven by sentiment and funds, lacking solid demand support. With increasing supply and rapid inventory accumulation, the upside for prices is severely restricted. The market has entered a phase of intense confrontation between "weak reality" and "expectations," and it is expected to continue the pattern of high - level oscillations, waiting for new drivers [8][36][37] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation (1) Production and Capacity Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Among them, light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons [9] - The comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 84.39%, an increase of 4.43% from the previous period. The ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, a week - on - week increase of 11.20%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, a week - on - week increase of 2.24% [11] (2) Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,572,700 tons, a 4.26% increase from Monday and an 11.67% increase from the previous Wednesday. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 101,900 tons or 6.93%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 836,500 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 736,200 tons [14] (3) Shipment Situation Analysis - As of January 8, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15 percentage points [15] (4) Profit Analysis - As of January 8, 2026, the theoretical profit (per two - ton) of the co - production method for soda ash in China was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The profit decreased slightly due to the increase in the cost side and the weak and stable soda ash market [20] - As of January 8, 2026, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash in China was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. The profit improved because the soda ash price rebounded after a decline [24] 2. Downstream Industry Situation (1) Floating Glass Industry - As of January 8, 2026, the daily output of national floating glass was 150,100 tons, a 0.96% decrease compared to the 1st. The weekly output from January 2 - 8, 2026, was 1,059,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [27] - As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national floating glass sample enterprises was 55,518,000 weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 1,348,000 weight boxes or 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days were 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [31] 3. Market Price Analysis - The price of 5500 - calorie动力煤 increased by 1.31% week - on - week, while the price of well - mine salt in East China remained unchanged. The prices of light and heavy soda ash in most regions decreased or remained stable, except for heavy soda ash in the Northwest, which increased by 2.33%. The price of floating glass increased by 1.03% week - on - week, while the price of 2.0 - mm photovoltaic glass decreased by 4.35%. The price of 32% caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased by 2.35%, the price of dry ammonium chloride in Henan remained unchanged, and the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 1.37% [35] 4. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the main contract of soda ash futures showed a wide - range oscillation pattern, with the weekly line closing slightly positive. The market sentiment gradually returned to rationality, and there was a deep confrontation between "short - term sentiment game" and "accumulated fundamental pressure" [36] - The market showed a typical "strong supply and weak demand" characteristic. The supply - side pressure increased sharply, the inventory accumulated significantly, and the enterprise shipment volume and shipment rate decreased. However, due to previous losses and macro - level optimistic expectations, the price had a psychological bottom support, resulting in volatile prices [36] - In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations for single - side trading, not to conduct arbitrage, and consider selling a wide - straddle option combination to earn time value [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Report's Core View - The overall situation of pure benzene shows strong supply and weak demand, and it should still be treated weakly; benzene styrene is in the seasonal off - season demand in the first quarter, with obvious demand pressure, and the industry should participate in hedging appropriately [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu port samples was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%; from December 22 to 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the pick - up was about 12,500 tons; 3 out of the statistical storage areas increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of benzene styrene port samples in Jiangsu was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period; the commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period; according to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The short - term large - denomination certificate of deposit interest rates of some banks have entered the "0 -字头", similar to ordinary fixed deposits [2] - In December 2025, the national consumer price increased by 0.8% year - on - year; China's December CPI annual rate was 0.8%, with an expected 0.9% and a previous value of 0.70% [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene fluctuated slightly during the day, with strong upward pressure and a supply - strong and demand - weak state, and is still treated weakly [3] - Benzene styrene fluctuated slightly, with attention paid to the pressure near the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line level; in the first - quarter off - season, it may be boosted by the short - term rebound sentiment of overall commodities, but the demand pressure is still obvious, and the industry should participate in hedging appropriately [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market shows a state of strong supply and weak demand, with significant upward pressure and should be treated weakly [3] - The styrene market is in the off - season demand in the first quarter. Although it may be boosted by the short - term rebound sentiment of commodities, the demand pressure is still obvious, and the industry should appropriately participate in hedging [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%. From December 22 - 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the提货 was about 12,500 tons. During the period, the inventory in 3 warehouses increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period. According to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Trump and his advisors are planning a large - scale plan to dominate the Venezuelan oil industry in the coming years, aiming to push the oil price down to $50 per barrel [2] - On January 8, 2026, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1.1 trillion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene fluctuated slightly during the day, with significant upward pressure and a state of strong supply and weak demand [3] - Styrene fluctuated slightly, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line. Affected by the short - term rebound sentiment of commodities, it may be boosted to some extent, but the demand pressure is still obvious [3][4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The pure benzene market is in a state of strong supply and weak demand, with significant upward pressure and should be treated weakly [3] - The styrene market is in a seasonal demand slump in the first quarter of next year, and the industry is advised to participate in hedging appropriately [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 29, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene at ports in Jiangsu was 300,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.89% and a year - on - year increase of 56.09%. From December 22 to December 28, the estimated arrival was about 39,500 tons and the提货 was about 12,500 tons. During the period, the inventory in 3 warehouses increased and 4 remained stable [1] - As of January 5, 2026, the total inventory of styrene at ports in Jiangsu was 132,300 tons, a decrease of 4.68% from the previous period. The commercial inventory was 77,300 tons, a decrease of 7.20% from the previous period. According to past industry rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - OPEC+ agreed to suspend production increases in the first quarter, and the meeting did not discuss the issue of Venezuela. Trump stated that the US needs to fully acquire Venezuela's oil and other resources and threatened a second strike if Venezuela does not comply [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Pure benzene showed a slight intraday fluctuation, with significant upward pressure and a state of strong supply and weak demand, and should be treated weakly [3] - Styrene also showed a slight fluctuation. Pay attention to the pressure around the 40 - day moving average on the weekly line. It is in a seasonal demand slump in the first quarter of next year, and the industry is advised to participate in hedging appropriately [3]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The lead market in 2026 is expected to experience a supply surplus and weak demand, leading to price fluctuations within a range of 16,000 to 18,000 yuan per ton. Seasonal factors may create temporary supply-demand gaps that could elevate prices [4]. Group 1: Market Inventory and Production - As of December 26, 2025, Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 780 tons to 27,095 tons [1]. - On January 2, 2026, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported registered lead warrants of 162,500 tons, with canceled warrants down by 6,025 tons to 76,825 tons, and total lead inventory reduced by 2,600 tons to 239,325 tons [1]. - A medium-sized recycled lead smelting enterprise in Southwest China plans to reduce production by 20%-30% in January due to ongoing raw material supply constraints [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side is seeing a slight increase in ore and waste battery recovery, with refined lead production continuing to grow [4]. - Demand is supported by policies encouraging replacements, with positive growth in electric two-wheelers and potential increases in energy storage and lead-carbon batteries. However, exports of lead-acid batteries may decline due to high Shanghai-London price ratios, trade frictions, and tariffs in the Middle East [4]. - The overall assessment indicates a slight domestic surplus, with seasonal consumption expected to pressure prices after a minor uptick at the beginning of the year [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Trading Recommendations - Recent reductions in recycled lead production are primarily due to raw material supply issues, compounded by environmental controls in East and North China [4]. - Downstream large manufacturers are experiencing weaker operations, attributed to the end-of-month accounting period, although there remains some buying activity in the spot market [4]. - The terminal demand is showing significant differentiation, with replacement demand affected by new national standards and automotive battery consumption entering a peak season, though the seasonal effect may not match previous years due to competition from lithium alternatives [4]. - Inventory levels are currently fluctuating downwards, with no significant short-term recovery expected, leading to limited upward potential for lead prices. A cautious trading approach is recommended [4].