Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current bullish foundation of the bond market is difficult to reverse in the short term. The impacts of anti - involution policies and the Yajiang Hydropower Project are long - term issues, and their short - term disturbances to the bond market are controllable [2]. - The implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 still has a probability [2]. - The central point of the appropriate yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is around 1.7%. As long - term topics cool down, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to the range of 1.65% - 1.70%. Although the Politburo meeting at the end of July and the China - US negotiations in early August may cause bond market fluctuations, the overall yield center is difficult to deviate significantly without new interest rate cut expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bond Last Week's Data Review - **Funding Rates**: From July 21 to July 25, DR001 rose from 1.36% to 1.52%, with a 16BP increase in funding cost; R001 rose from 1.40% to 1.55%, with a 15BP increase. The 7 - day rates fluctuated more significantly across the month, with DR007 rising 16BP to 1.65% and FR007 rising 25BP to 1.75% [11]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse repurchase volume continued to increase, with a total of 1656.3 billion yuan. With a large total maturity of 1726.8 billion yuan, a net capital withdrawal of 7.05 billion yuan was finally achieved. The central bank also conducted a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on July 25 and a 495.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on July 28 [11][27]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread widened. The US 6 - month SOFR rate fluctuated around 4.20%, while the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate rose from 1.59% to 1.61%. As of July 25, the 6 - month interest rate spread between China and the US was - 259BP, and the inversion increased in July. The 2 - year and 10 - year spreads between Chinese and US bonds were - 247BP and - 266BP respectively, with a slight narrowing of the long - and short - term spreads during the week [17]. - **Term Spread**: The US bond term spread contracted, while the Chinese bond term spread changed little. The 2 - year Chinese bond yield was 1.43%, and the 10 - year was 1.73%, with the 10 - 2 - year spread slightly widening from 29BP to 30BP. The US bond yield continued to correct, with the 2 - year rising to 3.91% and the 10 - year to 4.40%, and the 10 - 2 - year term spread narrowing from 53BP to 49BP [20]. - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The yields of both Chinese and US bonds corrected last week. The Chinese bond yield curve steepened, while the US bond yield curve flattened. The overall correction range of Chinese bond yields, except for the 3 - month period, was around 4BP - 6BP, and the middle - end of the US bond yield had the largest correction range, with a 5BP correction in the 3 - 5 - year period [21]. 2. Last Week's Key Bond Market Events - **LPR Remained Unchanged**: On July 21, the new LPR quotes released by the People's Bank of China remained unchanged, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus variety at 3.5% [33]. - **Futures Market Cooling Measures**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued notices to adjust trading limits. After the cooling measures were released, the trading volume of coking coal and lithium carbonate futures decreased by more than 20%, with the total trading volume decreasing by more than 1.7 million lots [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current foundation of the bond bull market is difficult to reverse in the short - term. The impacts of anti - involution policies and the Yajiang Hydropower Project are long - term issues, and their short - term disturbances to the bond market are controllable [2]. - Even if supply - side reform 2.0 measures are introduced in the July Politburo meeting, it will take time for the policies to be implemented and for the PPI to turn positive, and the impact on the bond market reversal also needs time [2]. - There is still a probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to the range of 1.65% - 1.70% after the short - term calm of long - term topics such as "anti - involution" and infrastructure [3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Bonds Last Week Data Review - **Funding Rates**: From July 21 to 25, DR001 rose from 1.36% to 1.52%, a 16BP increase; R001 rose from 1.40% to 1.55%, a 15BP increase. DR007 rose 16BP from 1.49% to 1.65%, and FR007 rose 25BP from 1.50% to 1.75% [8]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse repurchase投放 reached 16563 billion yuan, with a large total maturity of 17268 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 705 billion yuan [8]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread widened. The US 6 - month SOFR rate fluctuated around 4.20%, while the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate rose from 1.59% to 1.61%. As of July 25, the 6 - month interest rate spread was - 259BP. The 2 - year/10 - year Sino - US bond yield spreads were - 247BP and - 266BP respectively, with a slight narrowing of the long - and short - term spreads during the week [14]. - **Term Spreads**: For Chinese bonds, the 10 - 2 year spread widened from 29BP to 30BP. For US bonds, the 10 - 2 year spread narrowed from 53BP to 49BP [14]. - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: Both Chinese and US bond yields pulled back last week. The Chinese bond yield curve steepened, while the US bond yield curve flattened. The overall pull - back range of Chinese bond yields was about 4BP - 6BP, and the middle - term US bond yields pulled back by about 5BP [15]. - **Industrial and Fiscal Data**: In June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The general public budget revenue decreased by 0.31% year - on - year, with tax revenue recovering and non - tax revenue declining [19]. 3.2 Key Bond Market Events Last Week - **LPR Remained Unchanged**: On July 21, the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was reported at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged from the previous month [24]. - **Bond Market Adjustment**: Last week, due to anti - involution policy expectations and the Yajiang Hydropower Station theme, the bond market significantly adjusted. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield once pulled back to around 1.75%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond pulled back to around 1.97% [20]. - **Exchange Measures and Central Bank Operations**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued notices to adjust trading limits, resulting in a more than 20% decline in trading volume. The central bank conducted a 4000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on July 25 and a 4958 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on July 28 [1][20].

Group 1 - The core focus of the government's economic strategy is to "fully expand domestic demand," with significant policy signals expected in the second half of the year [2] - The State Council's meeting on July 16 emphasized the implementation of key policies to strengthen domestic circulation, including expanding investment in emerging service industries and optimizing the old-for-new consumption policy [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the introduction of measures to boost consumption, with a total of 690 billion yuan in special long-term bonds allocated in July and planned for October to support these initiatives [2] Group 2 - The central economic work conference and this year's government work report highlighted the need to address "involution-style" competition, with "anti-involution" becoming a key policy topic for the second half of the year [3] - The government aims to promote the construction of a unified national market and regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [3] - Policies to stabilize the real estate and capital markets have been emphasized, with expectations for more supportive measures in the housing market, including easing restrictions in first-tier cities and optimizing real estate storage policies [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has cooled significantly, and the prices of finished products have started to correct. The cost side has collapsed notably. Export volume has dropped significantly this week due to the recent rapid price increase [2]. - The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils are weak. Rebar has seen increased speculative demand and inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coils have experienced a slight decline in demand and inventory accumulation. Their inventories are at a five - year low. The market may return to real - world trading, and future market trends depend on policy signals, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [2]. - For iron ore, short - term prices may adjust. The market should focus on the inflection point of sentiment and pay attention to the policies of the important meeting in July [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term price fluctuations are large, and speculative positions are advised to wait and see. In the long - term, they face the risk of weakening demand. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin safety [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation phase, and it is recommended to wait and see. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient demand [11]. - For glass and soda ash, prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has fundamental supply - demand contradictions, and short - term waiting and long - term short - selling opportunities are recommended [14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton (-3.21%) from the previous trading day. Registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3587 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 62,771 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3397 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.13%). Registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 73,396 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2509) closed at 786.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.06% (-16.50), and positions decreased by 39,554 lots to 489,400 lots. The weighted position was 979,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.02 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.91% [4]. - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with an increase in Australian shipments led by FMG, a slight decline in Brazilian shipments, and non - mainstream shipments at a low level. Daily molten iron production was 242.23 tons, slightly down. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On July 28, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) closed down 6.02% at 6028 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed down 5.29% at 5840 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium to the futures price [7][8]. - In the short - term, the "anti - involution" and supply - side reform expectations drove up prices, but after the sharp rise of coking coal, prices may have reached an inflection point. In the long - term, they face weakening demand [8][9]. Industrial Silicon - On July 28, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2509) closed down 8.33% at 8915 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China decreased, with the 553 having a premium and the 421 having a discount to the futures price [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 9 yuan, and in Central China increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory of national float glass enterprises decreased by 4.69% month - on - month. The market may oscillate in the short - term and follow macro - sentiment in the long - term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 120 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.34%. Supply decreased due to increased maintenance, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term with fundamental contradictions in the long - term [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market mainly traded on the expectation of "anti - involution" policies last week as no incremental policies were further introduced. The market is highly concerned about whether the upcoming policies from the July Politburo meeting will signal a new round of supply - side reform and focuses on the policy priorities for the second - half economic work [7]. - With the short - term ebb of hot topics, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down in the short term, presenting a volatile pattern. The market also pays attention to the July Politburo meeting communique and the Sino - US trade consultation on Wednesday [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money Market - **Market Data**: DRO01 closed at 1.52 with a - 13.41bp change, DR007 at 1.65 with a 7.64bp change, GC001 at 1.35 with a 26.00bp change, etc. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 3.00bp to 4.40 [4]. - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 4000 billion yuan of MLF, and 1000 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. With 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, 2000 billion yuan of MLF, and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturing, the net injection was 1095 billion yuan. This week, 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [4][5]. - **Market Situation**: The inter - bank market liquidity has tightened recently, with DR001 rising above 1.5% and DR007 above 1.65% [5]. Stock Index Market - **Market Data**: The CSI 300 closed at 4127 with a - 0.53% change, the SSE 50 at 2796 with a - 0.60% change, etc. The trading volumes and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.69%, the SSE 50 rose 1.12%, etc. The daily average trading volume increased by 2778.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week. In the Shenwan primary industry index, construction materials (8.2%), steel (7.7%), etc. led the gains, while only banking (- 2.9%), communication (- 0.8%), and public utilities (- 0.3%) declined [6]. - **Market Situation**: The market was mainly driven by the expectation of "anti - involution" policies last week. Stocks were mainly hyped around the Yarlung Zangbo River project, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and Hainan Free Trade Zone themes [7]. Futures Premium and Discount - **Premium and Discount Data**: IF's current - month contract had a premium of 2.03%, IH's current - month contract had a discount of - 0.06%, IC's current - month contract had a premium of 11.71%, and IM's current - month contract had a premium of 11.00% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent decline in bond futures provides a good opportunity to enter the market. The current bond market stabilization is supported by three factors: positive signals from monetary policy, a stable trend in the capital market, and the configuration value of bond yields after previous adjustments [8]. - In the long - term, insufficient effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are still favorable for bond futures. With the coordinated efforts of monetary and fiscal policies, the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PART ONE: Main Views - This week, treasury bond futures declined significantly. The 30 - year main contract fell by about 2%, and the 10 - year contract fell by over 0.5%. The short - end showed relative resistance. The market focus was on the commodity market, where commodities started a bullish trend. The rise in commodities may break the deflation trend, improve corporate profitability, and lead to a recovery in risk appetite. The increase in capital prices and marginal tightening of liquidity further intensified the bond market correction, and bond funds faced redemption pressure [4]. - Looking forward, the current decline in bond futures offers a good entry opportunity. The bond market is supported by positive monetary policy signals, a stable capital market, and the attractiveness of bond yields. In the long - run, due to insufficient effective demand, deflation is likely to continue, and the bond bull market logic may persist [8]. 3.2 PART TWO: Liquidity Tracking - The report presents various liquidity - related data, including open - market operations (amount and price), medium - term lending facilities (amount and price), reverse repurchase rates, deposit - related interest rates, and bond yield data, but does not provide specific analysis based on these data [11][12][14]. 3.3 PART THREE: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking - The report shows data on treasury bond futures basis, net basis, internal rate of return (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year bonds, but does not offer specific analysis based on these data [42][51][59][65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share mid - year report performance pre - announcements show a sequential improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. Industry differentiation is significant, with non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals leading, while the real estate industry chain is under pressure [3]. - The market is mainly trading on the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The July Politburo meeting is yet to be held, and the market is concerned about the policy focus in the second - half economic work [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that China - US economic and trade officials will conduct the third round of trade consultations in Stockholm, Sweden. - The liquidity is relatively abundant, with the A - share margin trading balance increasing and the trading volume rising. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down, showing a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Their Driving Forces** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: Neutral. As of July 21, about 28.6% of A - share companies (1547) disclosed their 2025 mid - year report pre - announcements, with a pre - joy rate of 43.7%. Non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals have strong performance expectations, while the real estate industry chain is sluggish [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral - bullish. The market is highly concerned about whether the upcoming policies signal a new round of supply - side reform. The July Politburo meeting is awaited for policy focus [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: Neutral. The US Treasury Secretary announced China - US trade consultations [3]. - **Liquidity**: Bullish. The A - share margin trading balance increased, and the trading volume rose [3]. - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Adjust and go long. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down due to the ebb of hot topics [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Adjust and go long. Risk concerns include domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.69% to 4127.2; the SSE 50 rose 1.12% to 2795.5; the CSI 500 rose 3.28% to 6299.6; the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% to 6706.6 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: In the Shenwan Primary Industry Index, building materials (8.2%), steel (7.7%), non - ferrous metals (6.7%), building decoration (5.6%), and real estate (4.1%) led the gains last week, while only banking (- 2.9%), communication (- 0.8%), and public utilities (- 0.3%) declined [9]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of some stock index futures changed. For example, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures increased by 3.80%, and the open interest increased by 2.76% [13]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of July 25, the annualized discounts and premiums of different contracts of various stock index futures varied [15]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 86.1% historical quantile level, and the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 61.7% historical quantile level [19]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, along with 400 billion yuan of MLF and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. The net investment for the whole week was 10.95 billion yuan [26]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of July 24, the A - share margin trading balance was 1935.73 billion yuan, an increase of 39.32 billion yuan from the previous week. The margin trading volume accounted for 11.3% of the total market trading volume, at the 96.4% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 277.84 billion yuan compared with the previous week [32]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamental and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In June 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and other economic indicators showed different trends [35]. - **Industry - specific Economic Data**: The real estate industry showed a decline in investment, while the manufacturing and consumer industries had their own characteristics. For example, the manufacturing industry maintained a certain growth rate, and the consumer industry had different performances in various sub - sectors [35][38][39]. - **PMI Data**: In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, showing marginal improvements in some sub - indicators [42]. - **Earnings Indicators of Major Broad - based Indexes**: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders and ROE of major broad - based indexes varied [47]. - **Financial Data of Shenwan Primary Industry Index**: The profitability of different industries in the Shenwan Primary Industry Index showed significant differences, with some industries having high growth rates and others in decline [48]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drive - **Recent Macro - policy Trends**: A series of meetings and policies have been introduced, including the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizing the governance of low - price and disorderly competition, and the Central Urban Work Conference focusing on urban development transformation. A package of financial policies has also been announced to support the economy [52][53]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 147,000. The PCE and CPI also showed different trends [60][63]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have had a certain impact on international trade relations. There have also been legal disputes over tariff policies [69][71][73]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - As of July 25, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.5 times, 11.4 times, 30.7 times, and 41.3 times respectively, at the 73.7%, 81.5%, 71.6%, and 63.9% quantile levels in the past decade [76].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **supply-side reform** in China, specifically the **Supply-Side Reform 2.0** and its implications for various industries, particularly in the context of **overcapacity** and **deflation** [1][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Return of "Anti-Involution"**: The term "involution" has gained traction in recent years, with the government emphasizing the need to combat it. This reflects a shift in policy focus towards sustainable growth and social welfare [2][10]. 2. **Complex Current Environment**: The current economic landscape is more complicated than the previous supply-side reforms (2015-2018). The overcapacity issue is exacerbated by a more challenging industry structure and macroeconomic environment [1][4][10]. 3. **Differences from Previous Reforms**: - **Target Industries**: The previous reforms primarily targeted upstream industries, while the current focus is on midstream and downstream sectors [5]. - **Enterprise Types**: The earlier reforms were dominated by state-owned enterprises (SOEs), whereas the current situation sees a predominance of private enterprises [5]. - **Execution Methods**: The previous reforms relied heavily on administrative orders, while the current approach is expected to be more balanced and flexible [5]. 4. **Limited Backward Capacity**: The current overcapacity is largely in advanced production capacities developed in recent years, making it difficult to identify clear targets for shutdowns [8][10]. 5. **Economic Weakness and Fiscal Constraints**: The economic downturn and high government debt (over 100% of GDP) limit the government's ability to implement expansive fiscal policies, which are crucial for stimulating demand [8][10]. 6. **Historical Context**: The success of the previous supply-side reforms was attributed to clear directives from the central government and the dominant role of SOEs in key industries [9][10]. 7. **Need for Demand Stimulation**: The report emphasizes that demand stimulation is critical to mitigate the negative impacts of supply-side adjustments, as significant production cuts could lead to job losses and reduced overall demand [9][10]. 8. **Policy Implementation Challenges**: Despite recent meetings to discuss "anti-involution" measures, there is still no clear timeline or actionable plan, indicating the complexity of implementing these reforms [10][11]. 9. **Potential for Future Reforms**: The report suggests that while the direction of the "anti-involution" policy is correct, the tools available for implementation are more limited compared to previous reforms, and the affected industries are broader [13]. Other Important Insights - **Sector-Specific Analysis**: - In the **photovoltaic industry**, there are concerns about potential demand declines and high inventory levels, complicating the path for production cuts [12]. - In the **express delivery sector**, companies have not yet changed their pricing and competition strategies, indicating a potential for varied outcomes based on different production cut policies [12]. - In the **upstream materials sector**, the enforcement of renewable energy consumption responsibilities may influence capacity exits, but flexibility remains in execution [12]. - **Conclusion on Inflation**: The report concludes that rapid re-inflation is contingent on demand improvement, and the current economic conditions suggest a slow re-inflation process, with expectations of continued deflation into late 2026 [13].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference has rebounded due to the anti - involution driving up related sectors and the rebound of the large financial sector. Overseas, the impact of US tariffs is gradually settling. Domestically, attention should be paid to the expectations of the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July, with anti - involution expected to be an important theme. There are opportunities for market style transformation [3]. - In the bond market, although the economic data in the second quarter remained resilient under tariff disturbances, the抢 - export effect may weaken. With weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but recent positive commodity and stock market sentiments have suppressed the bond market [4][5]. - For precious metals, the Fed is expected to make a dovish statement in the July interest - rate meeting, and there is a possibility of more than expected interest rate cuts. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [6]. - In the base metals market, most metal prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, inventory changes, and macro - events. For example, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly weak, while aluminum prices may also show a similar trend [8][9]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are supported by cost and supply - demand policies, but the market still needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile, and glass and soda ash prices are affected by policies and market sentiment [22][23][25]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber has different views from bulls and bears, and crude oil has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand [34][35][41]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, weather, and policies. For example, the pig price is affected by capacity - reduction policies, and the egg price is affected by supply and demand during the peak season [54][55]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - **News**: New central enterprise China Yajiang Group's leadership was unveiled; China proposed to establish the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization; National Bureau of Statistics reported industrial enterprise profits; domestic commodity futures closed down at night; Tesla's intelligent driving plan is to be further implemented in China [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: IF, IC, IM show negative basis ratios, while IH shows positive ones. It is recommended to go long on IF futures on dips, focusing on market style transformation opportunities [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts all declined on Friday. Eurozone and US economic data were released, and the central bank conducted net capital injections [4]. - **Strategy**: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term bond market is suppressed. Wait for opportunities to enter the market on dips [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed's July interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish, and it is recommended to go long on silver [6]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices fluctuated last week. Inventory changes varied in different exchanges. It is expected to be range - bound and slightly weak, affected by macro - events and supply - demand fundamentals [8]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated. Domestic inventory is at a relatively low level, but the price rebound is limited due to the off - season and weak export demand [9]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the medium - and long - term price is bearish. There are short - term risks due to market sentiment [10]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose slightly. Supply is marginally tightened, and if smelter inspections expand, prices may strengthen [11][12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices were slightly strong. Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices were range - bound and slightly strong. Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, and prices may be range - bound and slightly weak [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: Lithium carbonate prices rose. There is a strong expectation of supply - demand repair, but the real fundamentals have not changed. It is recommended that speculators wait and see [15][16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose slightly. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Supply is tightening, and demand is recovering, but the oversupply situation has not been fundamentally improved [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated. The off - season demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [19][20]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices rose. Supported by cost and policies, but need to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices declined. Supply has rebounded, and demand remains high. Prices are expected to be volatile [23][24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Glass prices rose. Supported by policies and inventory reduction, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices rose. Affected by market sentiment, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction exists [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Both rose and hit the daily limit. Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades [27][28][29]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose. Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, supply is excessive [30][31][32]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices declined at night. There are different views from bulls and bears, and the industry's tire production and inventory data are provided [34][35][36]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil prices had different trends. It has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [40][41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices rose. Affected by market sentiment, and the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to supply increase and demand decrease [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene prices rose. Affected by macro - sentiment and cost, prices are expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward [44][45]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply and demand are both improving, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down, and there is a risk of valuation decline [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, but demand is expected to pick up. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices rose. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE prices rose. Affected by macro - sentiment and cost, and the inventory reduction is promoted by high - maintenance [50][51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP prices rose. Affected by macro - expectations in the context of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices were stable with local fluctuations. The market is affected by capacity - reduction policies, and it is recommended to focus on spread trading opportunities [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices declined. Supply is sufficient, but demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices were weak. The market is affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to spreads [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Palm oil prices declined. Supported by policies and supply - demand fundamentals, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to take a range - bound view [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices fluctuated. Domestic import pressure may increase, and prices may decline [61]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices fluctuated. Affected by factors such as downstream consumption and import quota expectations, there are potential downward risks [62][64].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to be strong. The cost side strongly supported steel prices. With low inventory levels, the market is expected to continue rising, but attention should be paid to policy signals, especially those from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3]. - The "anti - involution" sentiment drove up the prices of some commodities, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [11][15]. - For glass, short - term prices are expected to be strong due to policy support and inventory reduction. In the long term, it depends on real estate policies and demand. For纯碱, short - term prices may be strong, but the upside is limited due to fundamental supply - demand contradictions [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3356 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (1.882%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3507 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton (1.475%), with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and an increase in positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side supported steel prices. The supply and demand sides both had positive factors, and the low inventory level led to an expected continuous rise in the market. However, the subsequent market depends on policy signals and terminal demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 802.50 yuan/ton, down 1.05% (- 8.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 101.37 million hands. The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder was 28.73 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 3.46% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The daily average pig iron output remained high, and both port and steel mill inventories increased slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - economic conditions [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Positions**: On July 25, driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon hit the daily limit. The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 6414 yuan/ton, up 7.83%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 6166 yuan/ton, up 7.16% [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment dominated the price increase, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there are issues of over - supply and weakening demand [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Positions**: On July 25, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9725 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The spot prices of 553 and 421 remained stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment drove up prices, but there are risks of a decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there is a problem of over - supply and insufficient demand [13][14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased. With policy support and inventory reduction, short - term prices are expected to be strong, and long - term prices depend on real estate policies and demand [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. Short - term prices may be strong due to market sentiment and cost factors, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand contradictions [18].