Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals of the black building materials market remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of incremental trends. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side for product prices [3]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Price and Position Changes**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.31%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85,034 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 213,107 lots to 1.816026 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,390 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan/ton (-2.67%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57,772 tons, with no change. The position of the main contract decreased by 139,278 lots to 1.433936 million lots [2]. - **Market Conditions**: The export competitiveness has weakened, and this week's export volume has significantly declined. Rebar speculative demand has decreased significantly, resulting in inventory accumulation; hot - rolled coil demand has slightly increased, production has risen rapidly, and inventory has slightly accumulated. Currently, the inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Changes**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 779.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -1.27% (-10.00), and the position changed by -32,551 lots to 419,600 lots. The weighted position was 942,000 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.41 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.99% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing, Australian shipments increasing, Brazilian shipments slightly declining, and non - mainstream country shipments falling to a low level this year. The average daily molten iron output decreased by 1.52 tons to 2.4071 million tons. Port inventory decreased, and steel mill imported ore inventory slightly increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Changes**: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5,950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 194 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed down 5.19% at 5,696 yuan/ton. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 6,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of 304 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Suggestion**: The short - term price fluctuations of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have intensified. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see. The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: On July 31, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 5.65% at 8,760 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,550 yuan/ton, with a basis of 790 yuan/ton; the 421 market price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10,150 yuan/ton, with a basis of 590 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market Suggestion**: It is expected that the short - term price will maintain high - volatility and wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals are still oversupplied, and enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 8 yuan to 1,267 yuan, and in Central China, it remained unchanged at 1,230 yuan. The national floating glass inventory decreased by 2.397 million heavy boxes to 59.499 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and follow macro - sentiment fluctuations in the long term [16]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 60 yuan to 1,240 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 12,200 tons to 1.7958 million tons, an increase of 0.68%. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18].

今年下半年，扩内需增量政策信号持续释放；"反内卷"将是重要政策议题；围绕稳住楼市股市，下半年 仍会有政策部署……近日，多部门召开经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作 重点。 2025年是"十四五"规划的收官之年，上半年 GDP（国内生产总值）增速达到5.3%。近日，多部门召开 经济形势座谈会、年中工作会或相关发布会，透露了下一步工作重点。专家表示，下半年政策主线仍将 聚焦扩内需、"反内卷"、稳楼市股市等方面。 全方位扩大内需 全方位扩大国内需求是今年重点任务之首，下半年扩内需增量政策信号持续释放。 7月16日召开的国务院常务会议研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作，并作出一系列针对性部 署，涉及扩大新兴服务业等领域投资、优化消费品以旧换新政策等。 "扩大内需""提振消费"成为各部门提及下一步施策重点时的高频词。近日，财政部在上半年财政收支情 况新闻发布会上提到，下一步将按照《提振消费专项行动方案》部署，加快出台提振消费增量政策举 措，引导地方提升消费环境，优化消费供给。国家发展改革委则多次强调，扩围提质实施"两新"政策， 加力实施"两重"建设。 消费品以旧换新是当前扩大内需的重要抓手。据 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market has policy support, and there are opportunities to go long on dips. The bond market is affected by the stock - commodity market, and the interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term. The precious metals market is under pressure due to the hawkish stance of the Fed. Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals. The black building materials market is affected by policies and demand, and prices may fluctuate. The energy and chemical market has various trends for different products based on supply - demand and cost factors. The agricultural products market also shows different trends for different products such as livestock, grains, and oils [2][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Stock Index - **News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the capital market. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. Ningde Times' net profit increased by 33.02% year - on - year. Zhongchuan Emergency will be under risk warning from August 1st [2] - **Base Ratio**: Different base ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [2] - **Trading Logic**: The policy's support for the capital market is confirmed, and there are opportunities to go long on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose [3] - **News**: The Politburo meeting emphasized the implementation of fiscal and monetary policies. The Sino - US economic and trade talks agreed to extend relevant tariffs and counter - measures for 90 days [3] - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 3090 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1585 billion yuan [3] - **Strategy**: The interest rate is expected to decline in the long - term, but the stock and commodity markets may suppress the bond market in the short - term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: Both domestic and foreign gold and silver prices declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.38%, and the US dollar index was 99.82 [7] - **Market Outlook**: The hawkish stance of the Fed and the strong US economic data are negative factors for precious metals [7] Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper fell 0.74%, and SHFE copper was affected. The inventory and basis changed [10] - **Price Outlook**: The pressure on copper prices is relieved, and the price is expected to stabilize in the short - term [10] Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum rose slightly, and SHFE aluminum was in a volatile state. The inventory and basis changed [11] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the low inventory and weak demand [11] Zinc - **Market Quotes**: SHFE zinc index rose slightly. The inventory and basis changed [12] - **Price Outlook**: The long - term price is bearish, and short - term attention should be paid to the Fed's decision and market risks [12][13] Lead - **Market Quotes**: SHFE lead index fell slightly. The inventory and basis changed [14] - **Price Outlook**: The supply is tightening, and the price may strengthen if the smelter inspection expands [14] Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices oscillated narrowly. The prices of nickel ore, nickel iron, and refined nickel changed [15] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to decline, and short positions can be held or shorted on rallies [15] Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The inventory and price of upstream tin concentrate changed [16] - **Price Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak in the short - term, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [16] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Quotes**: The spot index was flat, and the futures price fell. The trading limits were adjusted [18] - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals are expected to improve, but there is high uncertainty, and speculators are advised to be cautious [18] Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The index rose, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory increased slightly [19] - **Price Outlook**: The over - capacity pattern may remain, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [19] Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The futures price was flat, and the spot price and basis changed. The inventory decreased [20] - **Price Outlook**: The price may be affected by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to terminal demand [20] Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose slightly, and the spot price was flat. The inventory increased slightly [21] - **Price Outlook**: The price is under pressure due to the weak supply and demand in the off - season [21] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil fell. The inventory and basis changed [23] - **Price Outlook**: The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [24] Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price and basis changed [25] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price may be adjusted, and risk control is needed [26] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was flat. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [27] - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was stable. The inventory decreased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [28] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot price and basis changed [29] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price fluctuates greatly, and speculation is not recommended. The long - term fundamentals are bearish [30][31] Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell. The spot price and basis changed [33] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate with high volatility, and waiting and watching are recommended [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices fell. The supply concern decreased [37] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate downward, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [39] Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI and Brent crude oil rose, while INE crude oil fell. The inventory data changed [40] - **Price Outlook**: The price has upward momentum in the short - term but is limited by the off - season demand [41] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price rose. The basis changed [42] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase and demand may weaken, and waiting and watching are recommended [42] Urea - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell, and the spot price was flat. The basis changed [43] - **Price Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak, and long positions can be considered on dips [43] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis strengthened [44] - **Price Outlook**: The price may rise with the cost after the inventory is reduced [44] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [46] - **Price Outlook**: The supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price may fall back [46] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [47] - **Price Outlook**: The fundamentals may turn weak, and the price may decline [47] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [48] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase and inventory may accumulate, and long positions can be considered on dips [50] p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose, and the spot price and basis changed [51] - **Price Outlook**: The price may go down with inventory, and long positions can be considered on dips [51] Polyethylene PE - **Market Quotes**: The futures price rose [52] - **Price Outlook**: The price may be affected by cost and supply, and short positions can be held [52] Polypropylene PP - **Market Quotes**: The futures price fell [53] - **Price Outlook**: The price may follow the crude oil trend in July [53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Quotes**: The pig price was stable with local fluctuations [57] - **Price Outlook**: The price may rise slightly today. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [57] Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The egg price was stable [58] - **Price Outlook**: The short - term price may oscillate, and short positions can be considered after the rebound [58] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: The US soybean price fell, and the domestic soybean meal price rose slightly [59] - **Price Outlook**: The soybean import cost may be affected by trade relations, and long positions can be considered on dips [60][61] Oils - **Market Quotes**: The domestic palm oil oscillated, and the net long positions of three major oils changed [62] - **Price Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate, and there may be an upward trend in the fourth quarter [63] Sugar - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell [64] - **Price Outlook**: The supply may increase, and the price may continue to decline [65] Cotton - **Market Quotes**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fell [66] - **Price Outlook**: The price is bearish in the short - term due to the weak consumption and unresolved trade issues [66]

Core Insights - The anticipated policy changes have not materialized, leading to a cautious market outlook with no significant upward or downward movements expected in the near term [2][3] - The economic performance in the first half of the year shows a GDP growth of 5.3%, indicating some positive outcomes from prior policy implementations [6][12] - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with significant declines in investment and sales figures, suggesting a prolonged period of adjustment [9][10][15] Economic Performance - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66.05 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [6] - Trade values showed a total import and export value of 21.79 trillion, with exports at 13 trillion (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.27 trillion (down 2.7%) [7] - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 24.55 trillion, reflecting a growth of 5.0%, with non-automotive retail sales increasing by 5.5% [8] Real Estate Sector - Real estate development investment fell to 4.67 trillion, a decrease of 11.2%, indicating a worsening trend [9] - New housing sales area dropped by 3.5%, with sales value declining by 5.5%, suggesting ongoing market difficulties [10] - The focus has shifted towards urban renewal and quality housing, with policies aimed at stabilizing the market rather than aggressive stimulus [14][18] Policy Outlook - Future policies are expected to encourage consumption and stabilize employment, with a focus on urban renewal rather than direct real estate market stimulation [9][12] - The government aims to implement a dual-track system for housing, balancing between market-driven and government-led initiatives [23][24] - The emphasis on "good housing" standards is set to increase, with new regulations expected to enhance housing quality [21][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has slightly improved, and the prices of finished products have risen significantly driven by news, with the profit on the futures market increasing simultaneously. However, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The market still needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. - For iron ore, the short - term price may be adjusted. Attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations and the macro - situation during the important meeting in July [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals. A possible phased high may have emerged, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to enter a stage of high - volatility and wide - range oscillation in the short term. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [13]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has limited upside potential due to supply - demand contradictions [15][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3347 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan/ton (3.048%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 85034 tons, a net increase of 594 tons. The main contract position was 2.175237 million lots, an increase of 239356 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3350 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3430 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3503 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton (3.120%). The registered warehouse receipts were 57772 tons, a net decrease of 590 tons. The main contract position was 1.612699 million lots, an increase of 131532 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Market rumors of production restrictions and construction site closures in Beijing and surrounding areas have increased expectations of supply contraction, driving up futures prices. However, the recent price increase has weakened export competitiveness, and export volume has declined this week. Rebar demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased, while hot - rolled coil demand has declined, and inventory has slightly increased. The current inventory levels of both are at a five - year low. The overall fundamentals are still weak, and the market needs to pay attention to policy guidance and terminal demand recovery [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 798.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.53% (+ 12.00), and the position decreased by 7237 lots to 482200 lots. The weighted position was 987200 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 31.03 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.74% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments have continued to rise, with FMG shipments significantly increasing and Brazilian shipments slightly decreasing. The daily average pig iron output was 242.23 tons, slightly down from the previous period. Both port inventory and steel mill import ore inventory have slightly increased. The high pig iron output and high port - clearance volume in the off - season support demand, and the supply pressure is not significant, resulting in limited inventory accumulation at ports. The short - term price may be adjusted [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 3.05% at 6212 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 22 yuan/ton to the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 4.62% at 6110 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the futures [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Short - term "anti - involution" sentiment has driven up prices, but it has deviated from fundamentals. The significant decline in coking coal on the night of July 25 may indicate a phased high. Enterprises are advised to hedge according to their own situations [9]. Industrial Silicon - **Price Data**: On July 29, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed up 4.88% at 9350 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China non - oxygenated 553 was 9600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 250 yuan/ton to the futures; the 421 was 10150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, at par with the futures [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage in the short term. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient effective demand. Short - term speculative behavior has made prices deviate from fundamentals, and enterprises are advised to hedge [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Price and Inventory Data**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Shahe was 1275 yuan, down 13 yuan from the previous day; in Central China, it was 1230 yuan, unchanged. As of July 24, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 61.896 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.043 million weight boxes (- 4.69%) from the previous period and a decrease of 7.74% year - on - year. The inventory days were 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.3 days from the previous period [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has declined due to weakened market sentiment. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate. In the long run, it depends on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [15]. - **Soda Ash** - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price was 1300 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. As of July 28, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7836 million tons, a decrease of 81000 tons (- 4.34%) from last Thursday. The inventory of light soda ash was 695100 tons, a decrease of 47100 tons; the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0885 million tons, a decrease of 33900 tons [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, due to supply - demand contradictions, the upside potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current bullish foundation of the bond market is difficult to reverse in the short term. The impacts of anti - involution policies and the Yajiang Hydropower Project are long - term issues, and their short - term disturbances to the bond market are controllable [2]. - The implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 still has a probability [2]. - The central point of the appropriate yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is around 1.7%. As long - term topics cool down, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to the range of 1.65% - 1.70%. Although the Politburo meeting at the end of July and the China - US negotiations in early August may cause bond market fluctuations, the overall yield center is difficult to deviate significantly without new interest rate cut expectations [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bond Last Week's Data Review - **Funding Rates**: From July 21 to July 25, DR001 rose from 1.36% to 1.52%, with a 16BP increase in funding cost; R001 rose from 1.40% to 1.55%, with a 15BP increase. The 7 - day rates fluctuated more significantly across the month, with DR007 rising 16BP to 1.65% and FR007 rising 25BP to 1.75% [11]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse repurchase volume continued to increase, with a total of 1656.3 billion yuan. With a large total maturity of 1726.8 billion yuan, a net capital withdrawal of 7.05 billion yuan was finally achieved. The central bank also conducted a 400 - billion - yuan MLF operation on July 25 and a 495.8 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on July 28 [11][27]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread widened. The US 6 - month SOFR rate fluctuated around 4.20%, while the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate rose from 1.59% to 1.61%. As of July 25, the 6 - month interest rate spread between China and the US was - 259BP, and the inversion increased in July. The 2 - year and 10 - year spreads between Chinese and US bonds were - 247BP and - 266BP respectively, with a slight narrowing of the long - and short - term spreads during the week [17]. - **Term Spread**: The US bond term spread contracted, while the Chinese bond term spread changed little. The 2 - year Chinese bond yield was 1.43%, and the 10 - year was 1.73%, with the 10 - 2 - year spread slightly widening from 29BP to 30BP. The US bond yield continued to correct, with the 2 - year rising to 3.91% and the 10 - year to 4.40%, and the 10 - 2 - year term spread narrowing from 53BP to 49BP [20]. - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: The yields of both Chinese and US bonds corrected last week. The Chinese bond yield curve steepened, while the US bond yield curve flattened. The overall correction range of Chinese bond yields, except for the 3 - month period, was around 4BP - 6BP, and the middle - end of the US bond yield had the largest correction range, with a 5BP correction in the 3 - 5 - year period [21]. 2. Last Week's Key Bond Market Events - **LPR Remained Unchanged**: On July 21, the new LPR quotes released by the People's Bank of China remained unchanged, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus variety at 3.5% [33]. - **Futures Market Cooling Measures**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued notices to adjust trading limits. After the cooling measures were released, the trading volume of coking coal and lithium carbonate futures decreased by more than 20%, with the total trading volume decreasing by more than 1.7 million lots [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current foundation of the bond bull market is difficult to reverse in the short - term. The impacts of anti - involution policies and the Yajiang Hydropower Project are long - term issues, and their short - term disturbances to the bond market are controllable [2]. - Even if supply - side reform 2.0 measures are introduced in the July Politburo meeting, it will take time for the policies to be implemented and for the PPI to turn positive, and the impact on the bond market reversal also needs time [2]. - There is still a probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025 [2]. - The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to the range of 1.65% - 1.70% after the short - term calm of long - term topics such as "anti - involution" and infrastructure [3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Bonds Last Week Data Review - **Funding Rates**: From July 21 to 25, DR001 rose from 1.36% to 1.52%, a 16BP increase; R001 rose from 1.40% to 1.55%, a 15BP increase. DR007 rose 16BP from 1.49% to 1.65%, and FR007 rose 25BP from 1.50% to 1.75% [8]. - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank's reverse repurchase投放 reached 16563 billion yuan, with a large total maturity of 17268 billion yuan, resulting in a net capital withdrawal of 705 billion yuan [8]. - **Sino - US Market Interest Rate Comparison**: The inversion of the Sino - US bond yield spread widened. The US 6 - month SOFR rate fluctuated around 4.20%, while the Chinese 6 - month SHIBOR rate rose from 1.59% to 1.61%. As of July 25, the 6 - month interest rate spread was - 259BP. The 2 - year/10 - year Sino - US bond yield spreads were - 247BP and - 266BP respectively, with a slight narrowing of the long - and short - term spreads during the week [14]. - **Term Spreads**: For Chinese bonds, the 10 - 2 year spread widened from 29BP to 30BP. For US bonds, the 10 - 2 year spread narrowed from 53BP to 49BP [14]. - **Interest Rate Term Structure**: Both Chinese and US bond yields pulled back last week. The Chinese bond yield curve steepened, while the US bond yield curve flattened. The overall pull - back range of Chinese bond yields was about 4BP - 6BP, and the middle - term US bond yields pulled back by about 5BP [15]. - **Industrial and Fiscal Data**: In June 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The general public budget revenue decreased by 0.31% year - on - year, with tax revenue recovering and non - tax revenue declining [19]. 3.2 Key Bond Market Events Last Week - **LPR Remained Unchanged**: On July 21, the 1 - year LPR was reported at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was reported at 3.5%, both remaining unchanged from the previous month [24]. - **Bond Market Adjustment**: Last week, due to anti - involution policy expectations and the Yajiang Hydropower Station theme, the bond market significantly adjusted. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield once pulled back to around 1.75%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond pulled back to around 1.97% [20]. - **Exchange Measures and Central Bank Operations**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued notices to adjust trading limits, resulting in a more than 20% decline in trading volume. The central bank conducted a 4000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on July 25 and a 4958 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on July 28 [1][20].

Group 1 - The core focus of the government's economic strategy is to "fully expand domestic demand," with significant policy signals expected in the second half of the year [2] - The State Council's meeting on July 16 emphasized the implementation of key policies to strengthen domestic circulation, including expanding investment in emerging service industries and optimizing the old-for-new consumption policy [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to accelerate the introduction of measures to boost consumption, with a total of 690 billion yuan in special long-term bonds allocated in July and planned for October to support these initiatives [2] Group 2 - The central economic work conference and this year's government work report highlighted the need to address "involution-style" competition, with "anti-involution" becoming a key policy topic for the second half of the year [3] - The government aims to promote the construction of a unified national market and regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector [3] - Policies to stabilize the real estate and capital markets have been emphasized, with expectations for more supportive measures in the housing market, including easing restrictions in first-tier cities and optimizing real estate storage policies [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has cooled significantly, and the prices of finished products have started to correct. The cost side has collapsed notably. Export volume has dropped significantly this week due to the recent rapid price increase [2]. - The fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coils are weak. Rebar has seen increased speculative demand and inventory reduction, while hot - rolled coils have experienced a slight decline in demand and inventory accumulation. Their inventories are at a five - year low. The market may return to real - world trading, and future market trends depend on policy signals, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [2]. - For iron ore, short - term prices may adjust. The market should focus on the inflection point of sentiment and pay attention to the policies of the important meeting in July [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, short - term price fluctuations are large, and speculative positions are advised to wait and see. In the long - term, they face the risk of weakening demand. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin safety [8][9]. - For industrial silicon, prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation phase, and it is recommended to wait and see. The industry still faces over - supply and insufficient demand [11]. - For glass and soda ash, prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, glass prices depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments, while soda ash has fundamental supply - demand contradictions, and short - term waiting and long - term short - selling opportunities are recommended [14][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the main rebar contract was 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton (-3.21%) from the previous trading day. Registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3587 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 62,771 lots. In the spot market, prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased [1]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3397 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-3.13%). Registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the main contract positions decreased by 73,396 lots. In the spot market, prices in Lecong and Shanghai decreased [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore contract (I2509) closed at 786.00 yuan/ton, with a change of -2.06% (-16.50), and positions decreased by 39,554 lots to 489,400 lots. The weighted position was 979,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 770 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.02 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.91% [4]. - Overseas iron ore shipments continued to rise, with an increase in Australian shipments led by FMG, a slight decline in Brazilian shipments, and non - mainstream shipments at a low level. Daily molten iron production was 242.23 tons, slightly down. Port and steel mill inventories increased slightly [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - On July 28, the main manganese silicon contract (SM509) closed down 6.02% at 6028 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a discount to the futures price. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF509) closed down 5.29% at 5840 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium to the futures price [7][8]. - In the short - term, the "anti - involution" and supply - side reform expectations drove up prices, but after the sharp rise of coking coal, prices may have reached an inflection point. In the long - term, they face weakening demand [8][9]. Industrial Silicon - On July 28, the main industrial silicon contract (SI2509) closed down 8.33% at 8915 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China decreased, with the 553 having a premium and the 421 having a discount to the futures price [11]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe decreased by 9 yuan, and in Central China increased by 40 yuan. The total inventory of national float glass enterprises decreased by 4.69% month - on - month. The market may oscillate in the short - term and follow macro - sentiment in the long - term [14]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 120 yuan. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased by 4.34%. Supply decreased due to increased maintenance, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term with fundamental contradictions in the long - term [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market mainly traded on the expectation of "anti - involution" policies last week as no incremental policies were further introduced. The market is highly concerned about whether the upcoming policies from the July Politburo meeting will signal a new round of supply - side reform and focuses on the policy priorities for the second - half economic work [7]. - With the short - term ebb of hot topics, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down in the short term, presenting a volatile pattern. The market also pays attention to the July Politburo meeting communique and the Sino - US trade consultation on Wednesday [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Money Market - **Market Data**: DRO01 closed at 1.52 with a - 13.41bp change, DR007 at 1.65 with a 7.64bp change, GC001 at 1.35 with a 26.00bp change, etc. The 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 3.00bp to 4.40 [4]. - **Central Bank Operations**: Last week, the central bank conducted 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, 4000 billion yuan of MLF, and 1000 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. With 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchase, 2000 billion yuan of MLF, and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit maturing, the net injection was 1095 billion yuan. This week, 16563 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [4][5]. - **Market Situation**: The inter - bank market liquidity has tightened recently, with DR001 rising above 1.5% and DR007 above 1.65% [5]. Stock Index Market - **Market Data**: The CSI 300 closed at 4127 with a - 0.53% change, the SSE 50 at 2796 with a - 0.60% change, etc. The trading volumes and positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased. Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.69%, the SSE 50 rose 1.12%, etc. The daily average trading volume increased by 2778.4 billion yuan compared to the previous week. In the Shenwan primary industry index, construction materials (8.2%), steel (7.7%), etc. led the gains, while only banking (- 2.9%), communication (- 0.8%), and public utilities (- 0.3%) declined [6]. - **Market Situation**: The market was mainly driven by the expectation of "anti - involution" policies last week. Stocks were mainly hyped around the Yarlung Zangbo River project, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and Hainan Free Trade Zone themes [7]. Futures Premium and Discount - **Premium and Discount Data**: IF's current - month contract had a premium of 2.03%, IH's current - month contract had a discount of - 0.06%, IC's current - month contract had a premium of 11.71%, and IM's current - month contract had a premium of 11.00% [8].