文字早评 2025/07/28 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、新央企中国雅江集团董事长、总经理亮相； 2、中国政府倡议成立世界人工智能合作组织 初步考虑总部设在上海； 3、国家统计局：1—6 月份全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额 34365.0 亿元 同比下降 1.8%； 4、国内商品期市夜盘收盘全线下跌 焦煤、焦炭收跌超 7%； 5、特斯拉亮相世界人工智能大会：智能辅助驾驶计划年内在中国进一步落地。 IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.11%/-0.27%/-0.93%/-1.73%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.61%/-1.33%/-3.32%/-5.14%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.57%/-1.50%/-4.21%/-6.61%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.00%/0.05%/0.09%/0.20%。 期指基差比例： 到期量增多扰动，央行资金呵护态度维持，总体预计后续资金利率有望回落。往后看，在内需弱修复和 资金有望延续松背景下预计利率大方向依然向下，但近期商品和股市情绪较好对债市有所压制，并触发 了一定的赎回负反馈，节奏上关注股债跷跷板的影响，当前位置债市调整 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to be strong. The cost side strongly supported steel prices. With low inventory levels, the market is expected to continue rising, but attention should be paid to policy signals, especially those from the Politburo meeting at the end of July [3]. - The "anti - involution" sentiment drove up the prices of some commodities, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities [11][15]. - For glass, short - term prices are expected to be strong due to policy support and inventory reduction. In the long term, it depends on real estate policies and demand. For纯碱, short - term prices may be strong, but the upside is limited due to fundamental supply - demand contradictions [17][18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Positions**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3356 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (1.882%) from the previous trading day, with an increase in registered warehouse receipts and positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3507 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton (1.475%), with a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and an increase in positions [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost side supported steel prices. The supply and demand sides both had positive factors, and the low inventory level led to an expected continuous rise in the market. However, the subsequent market depends on policy signals and terminal demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Positions**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 802.50 yuan/ton, down 1.05% (- 8.50), with a decrease in positions. The weighted position was 101.37 million hands. The basis of Qingdao Port PB powder was 28.73 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 3.46% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments rebounded, with Brazil contributing the main increase. The daily average pig iron output remained high, and both port and steel mill inventories increased slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - economic conditions [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Positions**: On July 25, driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon hit the daily limit. The main contract of manganese silicon closed at 6414 yuan/ton, up 7.83%, and the main contract of ferrosilicon closed at 6166 yuan/ton, up 7.16% [8]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment dominated the price increase, but there are risks of a sharp decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there are issues of over - supply and weakening demand [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Prices and Positions**: On July 25, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 9725 yuan/ton, up 0.36%. The spot prices of 553 and 421 remained stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the "anti - involution" sentiment drove up prices, but there are risks of a decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, there is a problem of over - supply and insufficient demand [13][14]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China increased. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased. With policy support and inventory reduction, short - term prices are expected to be strong, and long - term prices depend on real estate policies and demand [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. Short - term prices may be strong due to market sentiment and cost factors, but the upside is limited due to supply - demand contradictions [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market continues to face issues of oversupply and insufficient effective demand in the long - term. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by the "anti - involution" and supply - side reform 2.0 expectations, which have led to a surge in market sentiment. However, there are signs that the short - term exuberant sentiment may fade, and attention should be paid to the risk of a significant price drop when the sentiment wanes. It is also recommended that relevant enterprises seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Production and Price Data**: The weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase but still significantly lower than the same period in 2024, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 46.99%. The price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.75 yuan/ton to 44.7 yuan/kg. The DMC output was 45,600 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 15.51% year - on - year. The organic silicon inventory continued to decline week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, and the production gross profit continued to be in the red, with the loss narrowing significantly. The price of organic silicon rose by 1,600 yuan/ton to 12,450 yuan/ton. From January to June, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.097 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6%. From January to June, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [14]. - **Inventory Data**: The industrial silicon inventory was 691,800 tons, a decrease of 280 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline while remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 271,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons week - on - week; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; and the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons week - on - week [14]. - **Spot and Futures Data**: The spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,030 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 1.27%; the 421 had a discount of 175 yuan/ton to the main contract, with a basis rate of - 1.69% [15]. - **Cost Data**: The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it was 9,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Sichuan, it was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [15]. - **Supply Data**: The weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,200 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons week - on - week, continuing a slight upward trend. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by 20.48% year - on - year [15]. - **Demand Situation**: Polysilicon production remained at a low level, DMC production was basically stable, and overall demand was still relatively weak [16]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) industrial silicon in East China was 9,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 10,350 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 9,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2509) closed at 9,725 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,030 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 553 (non - oxygen - permeable) had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 1.27%; the 421 had a discount of 175 yuan/ton to the main contract, with a basis rate of - 1.69% [21]. 3. Profit and Cost - **Cost Factors**: The average electricity price in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased by 0.02 yuan/kWh and 0.04 yuan/kWh respectively week - on - week, and the silicon stone price remained unchanged. The silicon coal price in the main production areas increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week [26][29]. - **Production Cost**: The average production cost in Xinjiang was 8,325 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week; in Yunnan, it was 9,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton week - on - week; and in Sichuan, it was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [29]. 4. Supply and Demand - **Supply - Total Output**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 75,200 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons week - on - week, continuing a slight upward trend. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by 20.48% year - on - year. In June 2025, the industrial silicon output was 331,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to June decreased by 321,000 tons or 14.74% year - on - year [34]. - **Supply - Main Production Areas Output**: Data on the output of industrial silicon in main production areas such as Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc. are presented in the form of graphs, but specific numerical summaries are not provided in the text [36][39][42]. - **Demand - Polysilicon**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of polysilicon was 24,400 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase but still significantly lower than the same period in 2024. As of this week, the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 46.99%. The price of N - type polysilicon increased by 0.75 yuan/ton to 44.7 yuan/kg [46]. - **Demand - Organic Silicon**: As of July 25, 2025, the DMC output was 45,600 tons, a decrease of 2,200 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 15.51% year - on - year. The organic silicon inventory continued to decline week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level, and the production gross profit continued to be in the red, with the loss narrowing significantly. The price of organic silicon rose by 1,600 yuan/ton to 12,450 yuan/ton [49]. - **Demand - Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 25, 2025, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 21,240 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 20,160 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. From January to June, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 9.097 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.089 million tons or 13.6% [52]. - **Demand - Export**: From January to June, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 335,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15,800 tons or 4.49% [55]. 5. Inventory - As of July 25, 2025, the industrial silicon inventory was 691,800 tons, a decrease of 280 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline while remaining at a high level. Among them, the factory inventory was 271,400 tons, an increase of 300 tons week - on - week; the market inventory was 171,500 tons, remaining unchanged; and the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 248,900 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons week - on - week [60]. 6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the industrial silicon futures price continued to rebound. During the week, it broke through the upper edge of the flag (or expanding horn pattern) and briefly accelerated upwards, once exceeding 10,000 yuan/ton, with a weekly gain of 1,005 yuan/ton or 11.55%. At the daily - line level, the short - term rebound trend continued, but the upward momentum became looser. Short - term attention should be paid to the price performance at the resistance level around 10,000 yuan/ton, and be wary of the risk of price decline [63].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the bullish sentiment of commodities driven by the unfalsifiable "anti - involution" and Supply - side Reform 2.0 expectations is the dominant factor for the price of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon. The speculative behavior of short - term funds has made the price deviate from the actual fundamentals. Although it's hard to determine if the price has reached the short - term peak, the significant reduction in positions and drop of coking coal on the night of July 25 may symbolize the end of the short - term exuberant sentiment. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [15][96] - In the long - term, both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector, will face a situation of weakening marginal demand, especially the risk of a rapid decline in the demand for coil products and a significant drop in high - level hot metal production [15][96] 3. Summary According to the Directory Manganese Silicon 3.1.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 6010 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6414 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan/ton; the basis was - 214 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton. The calculated immediate profit remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 264 yuan/ton, Ningxia at - 124 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at - 474 yuan/ton. The production cost increased, with Inner Mongolia at 5964 yuan/ton, Ningxia at 5924 yuan/ton, and Guangxi at 6194 yuan/ton. The weekly output was 18.65 tons, up 0.36 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.72% compared with the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar was 211.96 tons, up 2.9 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.56% compared with the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. The estimated visible inventory was 59.48 tons, down 4.04 tons [14] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was at a low level, production profit continued to be in the red, production increased, rebar production was weak, hot metal production remained high, visible inventory continued to decline but remained high, and the tender volume increased slightly while the tender price continued to fall [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [15] 3.1.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon was 6010 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6414 yuan/ton, up 610 yuan/ton; the basis was - 214 yuan/ton, down 320 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 3.47%, at a low level in historical statistics [20] 3.1.3. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of July 25, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remained low, with Inner Mongolia at - 264 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton from last week; Ningxia at - 124 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton; and Guangxi at - 474 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [25] - **Cost**: The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia was 5964 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan/ton from last week; in Ningxia, it was 5924 yuan/ton, up 109 yuan/ton; and in Guangxi, it was 6194 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton. The main producing area's electricity price remained stable. In June, the manganese ore import volume was 268 tons, down 25.95 tons from the previous month and up 54.01 tons year - on - year. As of July 18, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 428.5 tons, down 4.2 tons [27][30][33] 3.1.4. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon was 18.65 tons, up 0.36 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.72% compared with the same period last year. In June 2025, the output was 75.23 tons, up 0.93 tons, and the cumulative output from January to June decreased by 15.67 tons or 3.10% year - on - year [44] - **Demand**: The weekly output of rebar was 211.96 tons, up 2.9 tons, and the cumulative weekly output decreased by about 4.56% compared with the same period last year. The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. In June, the national crude steel output was 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and 842 tons year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output was 509 million tons, down 772 tons or 1.49% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 63.54%, up 3.47 percentage points [58][61][62] 3.1.5. Inventory - The estimated visible inventory of manganese silicon was 59.48 tons, down 4.04 tons, continuing to decline but remaining at a high level. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises was 20.5 tons, down 1.13 tons. In July, the average available days of steel mill inventory was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days, at a historical low [69][72][75] 3.1.6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the manganese silicon futures price broke through the upper pressure level on July 25 and rose sharply, hitting the daily limit, with a weekly increase of 624 yuan/ton or 10.74%. On the daily line level, it continued the short - term rebound trend and accelerated upwards. Pay attention to the pressure around the gap of 6586 - 6644 yuan/ton [81] Ferrosilicon 3.2.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Summary**: The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. From January to June 2025, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year; the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 17.36 tons, down 0.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6166 yuan/ton, up 658 yuan/ton; the basis was - 266 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 4.51%, at a low level in historical statistics. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 103 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it was + 201 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton; and in Qinghai, it was 344 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton. The production cost in the main producing areas remained stable [95] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis was at a low level, production profit rebounded significantly, production continued to increase, hot metal production remained high, export and magnesium metal demand were average, inventory remained at a relatively high level in the same period, and the steel tender volume increased slightly while the tender price continued to fall [96] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the risk of a sharp decline in the market when the sentiment fades, and relevant enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities while controlling margin (cash flow) safety [96] 3.2.2. Spot and Futures Market - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon was 5900 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price was 6166 yuan/ton, up 658 yuan/ton; the basis was - 266 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was - 4.51%, at a low level in historical statistics [101] 3.2.3. Profit and Cost - **Profit**: As of July 25, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was - 103 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; in Ningxia, it was + 201 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton; and in Qinghai, it was 344 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [106] - **Cost**: The silicon stone price in the northwest region was 210 yuan/ton, remaining stable, and the semi - coke small material price was 590 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The electricity price in the main producing areas remained stable, and the production cost in the main producing areas remained basically stable [109][112] 3.2.4. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: As of July 25, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon was 10.23 tons, up 0.23 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 0.26% compared with the same period last year. In June 2025, the output was 41.4 tons, remaining stable compared with the previous month, and the cumulative output from January to June increased by 5.48 tons or 2.08% year - on - year [117] - **Demand**: The daily average hot metal output was 242.23 tons, down 0.21 tons, and the cumulative weekly output increased by about 3.15% compared with the same period last year. In June, the national crude steel output was 8318 tons, down 342 tons from the previous month and 842 tons year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative crude steel output was 509 million tons, down 772 tons or 1.49% year - on - year. From January to June, the cumulative output of magnesium metal was 40.6 tons, down 2.6 tons year - on - year; the cumulative export of ferrosilicon was 20 tons, down 2.25 tons or 10.11% year - on - year. The export profit of ferrosilicon was 63 yuan/ton, significantly weakening, at a relatively low level in the same period. From January to June, the cumulative overseas crude steel output was 419 million tons, down 450 tons or 1.06% year - on - year [126][129][132] 3.2.5. Inventory - The estimated visible inventory of ferrosilicon was 17.36 tons, down 0.2 tons, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. In July, the average available days of steel mill inventory was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days, and the raw material inventory of steel mills decreased significantly, at a historical low [140][143] 3.2.6. Graphical Trends - From July 21 - 25, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to rebound and rose sharply on July 25, hitting the daily limit, with a weekly increase of 690 yuan/ton or 12.46%. On the daily line level, it continued the short - term rebound trend, broke through the upper edge of the flag - shaped channel, and entered the acceleration phase. Pay attention to the pressure around 6300 yuan/ton and 6550 - 6600 yuan/ton [149]

Group 1 - The recent slight upward trend in the ten-year government bond yield is primarily driven by two catalysts: "anti-involution" and market expectations regarding real estate policies [1] - Investors are concerned that the rebound in industrial product prices may lead to an overall increase in macroeconomic inflation, which could constrain future monetary policy stimulus and pose an upward risk to interest rates [1] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to structurally improve certain industries, particularly those with poor competitive landscapes, potentially allowing them to raise prices above cost levels, thus enhancing overall supply-demand dynamics and boosting future profitability [1][2] Group 2 - The current "anti-involution" policy differs significantly from the previous round of supply-side reforms, as it is more focused on self-regulation at the industry level rather than being implemented at the policy level [2] - The time required for the effects of the "anti-involution" policy to materialize and for industry profitability and price increases to impact overall inflation means it does not currently pose a substantial downside risk to the bond market [2] - From an investment perspective, the ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is considered a favorable option due to its vertical nature, low fees, and ease of trading, making it suitable for current market conditions [2]

Market Performance - The A-share index has been on the rise since April 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3605.73 points on July 24, marking a significant recovery [2] - On July 21, the single-day financing purchase amount reached 1776.88 billion yuan, the highest since mid-March, with financing purchases accounting for 10.29% of total A-share transactions [2] Trading Volume and Investor Sentiment - Since June 23, the trading volume of A-shares has significantly increased, with the Wind All A Index trading volume rising from 1.1 trillion yuan to 1.9 trillion yuan [2] - Nomura Orient International Securities suggests that the increase in trading volume indicates investor optimism about future liquidity improvements, potentially leading to a "liquidity bull market" [2] - The firm warns that the current trading volume may be nearing its peak, estimating a potential peak around 2.2 trillion yuan [2] Market Rotation and Volatility - The market is expected to enter a rotation phase, with high volatility likely as market sentiment rather than fundamentals drives movements [3] - Compared to Nomura's cautious outlook, Cinda Securities anticipates a potential breakout similar to the second half of 2014, contingent on economic or policy catalysts [3] Policy and Industry Trends - The "anti-involution" policy has gained traction, with the Central Financial Committee emphasizing the need to address low-price competition among enterprises [4] - Huatai Securities notes that the launch of the Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project and coal industry production restrictions are contributing to the formation of the "anti-involution" theme [5] - The transition of "anti-involution" from a theme to a mainline strategy is supported by deepening policy efforts and market recognition [5] Strategic Insights - Huatai Securities recommends focusing on low-valuation, high-dividend sectors such as building materials, coal, and chemicals, as well as sectors showing signs of natural capacity clearance [5] - CITIC Securities highlights the need for a long-term approach to address "involution" issues, advocating for a shift from speed to quality in development assessments [6]

Core Viewpoint - The price of caustic soda futures continues to rise, driven by policy expectations, industry chain resonance, and cost support from low liquid chlorine prices, indicating a bullish market sentiment [1][2][3]. Group 1: Policy Expectations - Recent market discussions around "anti-involution" reforms have led to a rebound in commodity markets, with supply-side reform expectations boosting market confidence [1]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is set to implement a new growth plan for ten key industries, which is expected to enhance structural adjustments and eliminate outdated production capacity [1]. Group 2: Industry Chain Resonance - The chemical industry outlook has improved due to policies aimed at phasing out outdated hazardous chemical production processes, leading to significant price increases in upstream and downstream products such as alumina, coking coal, and soda ash [2]. - Coking coal prices are rising, providing strong cost support for caustic soda, while alumina, a major downstream product, is experiencing price increases due to policy expectations and structural supply-demand imbalances [2]. Group 3: Current Supply and Demand Analysis - As of July 17, 2025, the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is 82.6%, with production at 809,700 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase [4]. - Liquid caustic soda inventory is at 383,900 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 2.56%, while flake caustic soda inventory is at 24,000 tons, also reflecting a month-on-month increase [8]. Group 4: Demand Side - The alumina industry maintains a high production level, supporting caustic soda demand, while the viscose staple fiber sector is also showing slight improvements in production and operating rates [12]. - Non-alumina demand remains weak, primarily driven by essential purchasing needs, with some resistance to high prices from certain enterprises [12]. Group 5: Cost and Profit Analysis - Liquid chlorine prices in Shandong are maintaining a low level, providing some cost support for caustic soda production [17]. - The overall profit margins for the chlor-alkali industry are at a low point but have shown slight recovery, although rising coal prices and high electricity loads may increase production costs [17]. Group 6: Market Outlook - Short-term market sentiment is driven by expectations of phasing out old production facilities, with improved downstream operations and a potential increase in inventory replenishment as the market atmosphere warms [21]. - Future attention should be given to the impact of new production capacity and the implementation of anti-involution policies on the supply side, as well as the potential negative effects of further declines in liquid chlorine prices on caustic soda costs and profits [21].

Group 1 - The main driving force behind the recent market rally is supply-side expectations of "anti-involution," which have led to price increases, while rising coal prices are expected to increase downstream electricity costs, potentially leading to supply contraction and further price hikes [1][2][6] - The market anticipates that fiscal policies will strengthen in the second half of the year, alongside urban renewal and major infrastructure projects, contributing to improved demand expectations [1][2][5] - Recent futures market trends show significant price increases across various commodities, with notable gains in coking coal, silicon, and glass, driven by supply-side reforms and demand recovery expectations [3][4][6] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy is seen as a catalyst for the current market dynamics, with expectations of reduced low-price competition and the orderly exit of outdated production capacities [4][5][11] - Analysts express differing views on the sustainability of the current rally, with some optimistic about policy impacts while others caution about the need for alignment between policy execution and downstream demand [2][8][11] - The recent surge in commodity prices is attributed to a combination of supply-side adjustments and improved market sentiment, with significant price recoveries observed in various sectors, including black metals and energy materials [3][6][10] Group 3 - The coal price increase is expected to lead to reduced production in downstream sectors, further contributing to price increases in related commodities [6][7] - The market is currently experiencing a strong rebound in various commodity prices, with significant gains reported in coking coal and silicon, driven by both supply-side reforms and rising production costs [3][7][10] - The outlook for the commodity market remains mixed, with some analysts predicting continued volatility and others highlighting the potential for sustained price increases if supply-side policies are effectively implemented [8][11]

Core Viewpoint - Citi Group's Chief Economist for Greater China, Yu Xiangrong, emphasizes the importance of nominal growth recovery in the second half of the year, alongside maintaining real growth momentum, which will enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets [3]. Economic Growth Forecast - Citi has raised its GDP growth forecast for China to 5% for the year, with actual growth in the first half reaching 5.3%, providing a solid foundation for achieving the annual target [2]. Export Performance - Exports are expected to slow down in the second half due to higher base effects but are likely to continue exceeding expectations, with a forecast of mid-single-digit positive growth for the year [6]. - In the first half of 2023, China's total export value reached 13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with machinery and electronics exports accounting for 60% of total exports [6]. Domestic Demand Recovery - Domestic demand is anticipated to show a differentiated recovery, with varying performance across industries, but overall growth is expected to remain on track [9]. - New economic sectors such as artificial intelligence, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals are increasingly contributing to overall growth [10]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer confidence is gradually improving, with demand for travel, entertainment, and experience-based consumption rising, contributing to GDP growth [12]. - The sales of certain new energy vehicles, despite higher prices, indicate that consumer purchasing power remains robust for quality products [13]. Investment Trends - New capital expenditures and service sector investments are flourishing, with AI-related investments projected to contribute approximately 500 billion yuan to GDP growth [14]. Policy Outlook - Macro policies are expected to focus on coordinated supply and demand measures, with incremental policies likely to accelerate [15]. - Fiscal policies will emphasize new measures rather than budget modifications, including enhanced trade-in policies and timely childcare subsidies [16]. Real Estate Support - New supportive policies for the real estate sector are anticipated, including potential easing of restrictions in high-tier cities and adjustments to down payment ratios for second homes [17]. Supply-Side Reforms - The focus will be on substantial actions to address low-price competition and promote the orderly exit of outdated capacities [18]. - Specific measures may include tightening financial regulations and enhancing industry standards [19]. Conclusion - A new phase of supply-side reform is expected, which, if effectively implemented alongside demand-side stimulus, could lead to price recovery and bolster market confidence [20].

Commodity Market Insights - The domestic commodity market experienced a surge with six major contracts, including glass and industrial silicon, closing at the daily limit up due to "anti-involution" policies driving price increases[2] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to eliminate low-price competition, enhancing expectations for supply-side reforms and leading to price rebounds in various commodities[2] Trade Agreements - The U.S. has reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, reducing tariffs on Philippine goods from 20% to 19% and eliminating 99% of tariffs from Indonesia[3] - These agreements are expected to lower global trade uncertainties and signal a new phase in international trade development[3] Automotive Industry Developments - The automotive sector is undergoing a crackdown on irrational competition, with multiple meetings held to address the issue, potentially alleviating price wars in the future[4] - Major automakers like Dongfeng and Changan have expressed support for these regulatory measures[4] Infrastructure Investment Trends - In the first half of 2025, infrastructure investment showed a "blossoming" trend, with the average operating rate of construction machinery at 47.1%, up 4.62% from the previous quarter[4] - The recovery in exports and the initiation of large infrastructure projects are expected to boost domestic demand and improve profit margins in the non-excavation sector from 15% to 20%[4] Financial Market Overview - The latest 10-year government bond yield is at 1.692%, with a change of 1.43 basis points, while the DR007 rate is at 1.474%, down by 1.60 basis points[6] - The USDCNH exchange rate is at 7.1705, with a slight decrease of 0.01%, and the dollar index stands at 97.36, down by 0.49%[8] Investment Sentiment - The A-share market saw significant inflows in sectors such as construction decoration, coal, and electric equipment, indicating strong investor interest[22] - The financing balance in the A-share market reached 1,904.6 billion yuan as of July 21, 2025[15] Risk Factors - Potential risks include insufficient policy support, unexpected adjustments in the real estate market, and escalating tensions between China and the U.S.[27]