盘面表现： 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 国泰君安期货市场分析师 张驰宁 Z0020302 今日（2026年2月4日）焦煤价格大幅上涨，主要受印尼煤炭出口政策生变所引发的供应担忧驱动。具体 而言，印尼政府对2026年煤矿企业的RKAB（工作计划与预算）审批额度出现大幅削减，部分矿商获批 的产量额度较其申报计划下降了约53%，这直接导致部分印尼矿商暂停了现货煤炭的出口和市场报盘。 作为全球最大的动力煤出口国，印尼供应的不确定性立即扰动了全球市场，推高了国际煤价，并引发市 场对进口至中国的煤炭量将减少的预期。此外，临近中国春节，国内煤矿生产活动有所放缓，而下游仍 存在一定的刚性补库需求，这种阶段性的供需错配也加剧了市场对供应收紧的担忧。 因此，外部供应收紧的预期与内部短期供需矛盾共同推动了今日焦煤价格的强势表现。 焦煤盘面呈现显著的多头资金回流迹象，分时图显示多头持续增仓并推动价格拉涨，即便临近关键压力 位也未表现犹豫，强势完成了对上方阻力的突破。目前盘面已接连上破多个前期重要压力位置，后续需 重点关注能否在12月5日开盘价1185.5附近进行有效回踩确认，并观察回踩过程中的企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant price fluctuations, with gold, silver, copper, aluminum, and rare earths reaching new highs in 2025, but recent market volatility has raised questions about the sustainability of this trend [2][18]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations and Market Dynamics - The recent sharp decline in metal prices has left the market confused about whether this is a peak cycle or a short-term adjustment [5][20]. - The non-ferrous metals sector saw over a 90% increase in 2025, with gold prices rising over 23% in January 2026 and silver over 60% for the year [22][6]. - Profit-taking by investors after substantial gains has triggered corrections in some metal prices [23]. Group 2: Macro and Supply-Demand Factors - Global macroeconomic changes, such as the unexpected rise in the U.S. CPI, have led to a reduction in the expected number of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which could strengthen the dollar and suppress metal prices [24]. - The supply-demand imbalance is a core driver of price strength in basic and new energy metals, with traditional metals like copper and aluminum facing supply constraints and increasing demand from energy transitions [27]. - The geopolitical climate and economic uncertainties are elevating market risk aversion, making gold a preferred safe-haven asset [28]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The underlying logic for investing in non-ferrous metals remains intact, with expectations of continued demand from emerging industries and a loose monetary environment [11][28]. - Investors are advised to be cautious of high leverage in the futures market and to monitor ETF premium risks, especially when market conditions change [29][30]. - The recent downturn in non-ferrous metals does not indicate a fundamental reversal, suggesting a potential shift into a phase of structural differentiation within the sector [32].

格隆汇2月2日｜William Blair分析师Alexandra Symeonidi在报告中表示，由于白银价格在上周五随金价 大跌而重挫超过30%，预计今年该贵金属将经历剧烈的价格波动。分析师指出，白银市场持续面临流动 性挑战，而市场供需平衡数据预示今年将出现供应短缺。此外，投机头寸已有所下降，表明投机因素不 太可能是此前白银上涨的驱动力。然而，Symeonidi补充称，占总需求约60%的工业需求目前表现疲 软，且即便近期大跌，白银年内至今的涨幅依然存在。因此，她认为白银以及更广泛的金属市场可能将 持续维持高波动水平。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 800-1,000 million yuan in 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous losses, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5-2.7 billion yuan [3]. - The company anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 130-190 million yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 408-414 million yuan [3]. - The report highlights that the company is increasing its passenger capacity and optimizing its cargo operations, which are expected to enhance profitability [5]. - The decline in oil prices is projected to improve cost structures, with a significant foreign exchange gain expected due to the appreciation of the yuan against the dollar [5]. - The report suggests that the aviation industry is entering a golden investment era, driven by supply-demand mismatches and increasing international travel demand [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 179.291 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9% [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted at 702 million yuan, with a substantial increase of 598.7% compared to the previous year [4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.05 yuan, with a significant increase expected in subsequent years [4]. - The gross profit margin is projected to improve from 9.8% in 2025 to 16.9% by 2027 [4]. - Return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 2.5% in 2025 to 22.1% by 2027 [4].

行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 2026 年 01 月 30 日 相关研究 《航空"反内卷"初见成效——航空迎来 黄金时代系列报告》 2026/01/20 《景气度持续提升，从量变到质变—— 2025 下半年航空板块投资策略》 2025/06/12 《全球格局持续演变，静待我国航司迈入 成熟期——2025 航空及海外飞机制造链 年度策略》 2024/11/27 《航空出行渐入常态，再强调"国际+供 给"双主线——2024 航空机场中期策 略》 2024/06/14 《不同周期阶段的不同演绎，民航业东升 西降趋势确定-2024 航空机场投资展望》 2023/12/05 证券分析师 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 本 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 最新 | 涨幅% T | IOPV | 溢折率% | 成交额 | 年初至今涨幅% | 换手% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 517400 | 黄金股票ETF | 2.229 | -10.01 | 2.2505 | -0.96 | 3.71 Z | 37.93 | 18.14 | | 159562 | 黄金股ETF | 3.069 | -10.00 | 3.0913 | -0.72 | 12.76 Z | 37.56 | 13.10 | | 159321 | 黄金股票ETF | 2.197 | -10.00 | 2.1798 | 0.79 | 1.67 Z | 40.29 | 17.56 | | 517520 | 黄金股ETF | 2.819 | -9.99 | 2.8614 | -1.48 | 13.53 Z | 38.19 | 6.45 | | 159322 | 黄金股票ETF基金 | 2.270 | 666 | 2.2953 | -1.10 | 7091万 | 36.25 | 19.37 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company indicates that the supply-demand mismatch in the industry is not fully alleviated by 2025, despite various policies aimed at stabilizing market expectations and reducing negative sentiment [1] Industry Summary - The implementation of policies to "counteract involution" and regulate market order has had some positive effects on stabilizing market expectations and mitigating overall negative sentiment in the industry [1] - However, there has been no significant increase in equipment demand from downstream enterprises in the short term [1] Company Summary - In the fourth quarter of 2025, prices for key raw materials such as silicon and silver continue to rise, putting pressure on domestic customers due to increased costs and low component prices [1] - The company is facing significant operational pressure and currently has no plans for large-scale capacity expansion [1]

01 周价格表 | 多晶硅 (Per KG) | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | N型复投料(RMB) | 54.000 | 50.000 | 53.000 | 0.00% | | N型致密料(RMB) | 52.000 | 49.000 | 52.000 | 0.00% | | N型颗粒硅(RMB) | 51.000 | 50.000 | 50.000 | 0.00% | | 非中国区多晶硅(USD) | 22.000 | 13.100 | 17.500 | 0.00% | | 硅片 | 高点 | 低点 | 均价 | 涨跌幅 | | N型183单晶硅片-183mm/130um (RMB) | 1.350 | 1.200 | 1.300 | 0.00% | | N型210单晶硅片-210mm/130um (RMB) | 1.600 | 1.500 | 1.600 | 0.00% | | N型210R单晶硅片-210*182mm/130um (RMB) | 1.450 | 1.300 | 1.400 | 0.00% | | 电池片 ( ...

短期PX市场的压力来自终端需求的疲软及由此引发的聚酯企业减产负反馈。当前终端纺织行业进入传 统淡季，新增订单持续乏力，企业生产活跃度显著回落。数据显示，截至1月22日当周，江浙地区织机 开工率降至51.20%，较2025年年底下降9.50个百分点；织造订单天数仅7.55天，减少2.51天。原料端价 格偏强与终端需求不振形成明显背离，聚酯企业为缓解库存压力，减产检修计划密集出台。据统计，已 公布的春节前后聚酯装置检修规模接近1500万吨，超过2025年同期水平，预计春节假期国内聚酯行业最 低负荷将降至77%以下。需求负反馈逐渐显现，节前PX价格调整压力加大。 PX自身供需错配是支撑价格中期偏强格局的核心逻辑。从产能周期看，2023年下半年至2025年年底， 国内PX无新装置投产，总产能稳定在4373万吨。2026年PX虽重启扩产周期，但新产能投放多集中于下 半年。据统计，1月福佳大化完成30万吨产能扩产；裕龙石化300万吨产能因未取得PX生产批文，目前 仅生产MX，投产时间待定；华锦阿美200万吨产能预计于下半年落地。2026年下游聚酯维持4%~5%扩 产速度，供需错配格局将对PX及PTA市场形成支撑。 产能利 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhonglai Co., Ltd. (300393.SZ) expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company between 1 billion to 1.5 billion yuan for the year 2025, with a net loss of 1.07 billion to 1.57 billion yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [1] Industry Summary - The photovoltaic industry is still in a phase of adjustment in 2025, with ongoing supply-demand mismatches and low-price competition [1] - Despite initiatives to counteract internal competition within the industry, the fundamental imbalance in supply and demand has not yet improved [1] - The prices of major photovoltaic products remain at relatively low levels during the reporting period, compounded by significant increases in the prices of upstream raw materials such as silicon materials and silver paste, leading to a decline in overall gross profit levels for companies [1] - Some existing orders are expected to incur losses, resulting in anticipated liabilities [1] - The company has made provisions for impairment based on the requirements of the "Enterprise Accounting Standards" and financial management, considering market and industry conditions and adhering to the principle of prudence, which significantly impacts net profit [1]