Glass Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Despite October being the traditional peak season, terminal demand this year was weak and failed to support prices. Supply expectations increased as corporate profits recovered, and inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, suppressing spot prices. The market was dominated by weak reality, leading to a negative feedback loop and a significant price drop at the beginning of the month. Although there were short - term price rebounds, they lacked momentum due to weak real - estate demand and high inventory. The market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile pattern, and future attention should be paid to production line maintenance and the coal - to - gas conversion process in the Shahe area [12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of float glass was 1130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the closing price of the main contract was 1101 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the basis was 29 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [12][17]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of producing float glass with natural gas was - 172.7 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4400 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit with coal was 78.1 yuan/ton, up 14.65 yuan/ton; with petroleum coke, it was - 1.77 yuan/ton, down 2.86 yuan/ton [12][26][29]. - Supply: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, unchanged; the number of operating production lines was 226, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35% [12][33]. - Demand: The downstream deep - processing orders of float glass were 10.8 days, down 0.2 days; the operating rate of Low - e glass was 44.30%, up 0.6%. From January to September 2024, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing was 65834.79 million square meters, down 5.5%; in September, it was 8530.87 million square meters, down 11.89%. In September 2025, automobile production and sales were 327.58/322.64 million vehicles, up 17.15%/14.86% year - on - year; from January to September, cumulative production and sales were 2433.30/2436.30 million vehicles [12][36][39][42]. - Inventory: The national float glass factory inventory was 6313.6 million heavy boxes, down 265.4 million heavy boxes; the inventory in the Shahe area was 0 million heavy boxes, down 529.6 million heavy boxes [12][46]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Glass Basis: As of November 7, 2025, the glass basis situation was as described above [17]. - Glass Inter - month Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was - 128 yuan/ton (+22), the 05 - 09 spread was - 90 yuan/ton (+5), the 09 - 01 spread was 218 yuan/ton (-27), and the open interest was 1.9284 million lots [20]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Float Glass Profit and Cost: The profit and cost details using different fuels (natural gas, coal, petroleum coke) were as mentioned above [26][29]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Glass Production and Operating Rate: Weekly output, number of operating production lines, and operating rate were as stated [33]. - Glass Demand: Downstream deep - processing orders and Low - e glass operating rate, as well as real - estate and automobile market data, were as described [36][39][42]. 3.5 Inventory - Inventory: National and Shahe area factory inventories were as mentioned [46]. Soda Ash Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The soda ash market is in a long - term supply - demand imbalance. New capacity release and holiday inventory accumulation pressure prices. Downstream demand has not improved, and export orders are weak. Although cost support exists due to industry losses, it has not fully affected prices. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [56][57]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Price: As of November 7, 2025, the spot price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area was 1157 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main contract was 1207 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton; the basis was - 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [56][61]. - Cost and Profit: The weekly average profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 103.5 yuan/ton, down 1.8 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of the combined - soda process was - 212 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 794 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton; the low - end price of Henan LNG was 4400 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton. The price of raw salt in the northwest region was 215 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2120 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [56][71][74][77]. - Supply: The weekly output of soda ash was 74.68 tons, down 1.08 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 85.67%. The output of heavy soda ash was 41.48 tons, down 0.5 tons; the output of light soda ash was 33.2 tons, down 0.58 tons [56][81][84]. - Demand: The weekly output of national float glass was 112.89 tons, unchanged; the operating rate was 76.35%. The apparent consumption of soda ash in September was 3.08 million tons [56][87]. - Inventory: The factory inventory of soda ash was 1.7142 million tons, up 12,200 tons; the available inventory days were 14.21 days, up 0.1 days. The heavy soda ash factory inventory was 89.96 tons, up 1.32 tons; the light soda ash factory inventory was 81.46 tons, down 0.1 tons [56][91][94]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Soda Ash Basis: As of November 7, 2025, the soda ash basis situation was as described above [61]. - Soda Ash Inter - month Spread: The 01 - 05 spread was - 86 yuan/ton (+7), the 05 - 09 spread was - 69 yuan/ton (-5), the 09 - 01 spread was 155 yuan/ton (-2), and the open interest was 1.9284 million lots [64]. 3.3 Profit and Cost - Soda Ash Profit: The profit details of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process were as mentioned above [71]. - Raw Material Cost: The prices of steam coal, LNG, raw salt, and synthetic ammonia were as described [74][77]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - Soda Ash Production: Weekly output, capacity utilization rate, and the output of heavy and light soda ash were as stated [81][84]. - Soda Ash Demand: Float glass output and soda ash apparent consumption were as described [87]. 3.5 Inventory - Soda Ash Inventory: Factory inventory, available inventory days, and the inventory of heavy and light soda ash were as mentioned [91][94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, the short - term is in an adjustment phase, and there is expected to be no strong driving force in November [3]. - For copper, when the copper price drops to around 85,000 yuan/ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases, and the price has strong support at this level. However, whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient [17]. - For aluminum, the recent price increase is driven by speculative funds due to potential future supply - demand mismatches, but it contradicts the current fundamentals. The price of alumina may be weak in the short - term due to oversupply [37]. - For zinc, the TC in November has dropped significantly due to intense competition for ore at the smelting end. There is a possibility of inventory reduction in November, and the low inventory provides support for the price [60]. - For the nickel industry chain, the price of nickel ore may be supported during the rainy season in the Philippines. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but there is no upward driving force for prices. Nickel iron prices have been continuously lowered, and stainless steel spot sales are weak [76]. - For tin, the supply is weaker than demand, and the raw material problem at the supply end is difficult to solve in the short - term, so the Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock [91]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply increment is stable, the demand is strong in November, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend in the short - term [105]. - For the silicon industry chain, there is an expectation of production reduction at the industrial silicon supply end, and the demand has not improved. The fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak [116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold, and the gold - silver ratio [4]. - **Factor Analysis**: Analyzes the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, and the relationship between gold and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds [8][15]. - **Inventory Situation**: Shows the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper are provided [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotong, etc., as well as the spot premium and discount data are presented [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference are given [28][32]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory are provided [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures, LME aluminum, and alumina futures are presented [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of East China aluminum, Foshan aluminum, etc., as well as the basis data are provided [46]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts are given [54]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [61]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SMM 0 zinc and SMM 1 zinc, as well as the premium and discount data are presented [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory are given [73]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [77]. - **Spot Data**: The average price of nickel spot is presented [82]. - **Downstream Situation**: The price and inventory of nickel ore, the profit rate of downstream products, and the price of nickel pig iron are analyzed [83][85][89]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium and discount, etc., are presented [96]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory are given [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided [106]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium - related products are presented [110]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and lithium carbonate social inventory are given [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116][117]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented [122][123][124]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are given [129][141][144].

智通财经APP获悉，11月6日，硅业分会发布单晶硅片周评。由于下游需求较为疲软，本周硅片价格延 续小幅下跌态势。具体来看，终端装机进入传统淡季，下游对硅片需求较为疲软，市场对后市硅片价格 看跌气氛偏浓，相关采购意愿偏低，导致硅片成交清淡，各硅片厂商出货压力较大。另外，部分厂商和 贸易商为确保现金稳健，开始低价抛售硅片，进一步加剧了市场压力，这一系列因素导致本周硅片整体 成交价格重心继续下行。据调研了解，本周行业整体开工率较上周暂无明显变化，其中两家一线企业开 工率在56%和54%，一体化企业开工率在56%-80%之间，其余企业开工在54%-80%之间。 据安泰科统计，本周硅片价格呈弱势维稳状态。其中，N型G10L单晶硅片(182*183.75mm/130μm)成交 均价在1.31元/片，环比上周下跌0.76%；N型G12R单晶硅片(182*210mm/130μm)成交均价在1.33元/片， 环比上周下跌0.75%；N型G12单晶硅片(210*210 mm/130μm)成交均价在1.65元/片，环比上周下跌 0.60%。据调研了解，本周下游电池价格较上周小幅下跌，组件价格较上周持稳运行，其中部分电池片 跌破0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure at the upper level is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (there are rumors of mine resumption), and further stimulation from funds, events, and news is needed to continue the price increase. Otherwise, the price will be low [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 80,500 yuan with a decrease of 400 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 78,300 yuan with a decrease of 400 yuan [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts: Li2511 closed at 77,800 yuan with a decline of 1.12%; Li2512 closed at 79,060 yuan with a decline of 0.38%; Li2601 closed at 79,140 yuan with a decline of 0.45%; Li2602 closed at 79,000 yuan with a decline of 0.13%; Li2603 closed at 78,860 yuan with a decline of 0.43% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) has an average price of 920 yuan with a decrease of 11 yuan (Li2O: 5.5% - 6%); lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1,290 yuan with a decrease of 25 yuan; lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 2,085 yuan with a decrease of 30 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 6,990 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li2O: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 8,340 yuan with a decrease of 80 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,925 yuan with a decrease of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,950 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,450 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,150 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2,200 yuan with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is 1,360 yuan with a decrease of 980 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 80 yuan with an increase of 20 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 60 yuan with an increase of 100 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons with a decrease of 3,008 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons with a decrease of 1,630 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons with a decrease of 1,987 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons with an increase of 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 26,830 tons with an increase of 340 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 78,943 yuan, and the profit is 425 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 82,750 yuan, and the profit is - 5,412 yuan [3]

Group 1: Market Overview - The phenol industry chain is experiencing a "旺季不旺" (busy season not busy) situation, with phenol prices dropping from 7050 yuan per ton in early September to 6400-6450 yuan by the end of October, a decline of 8.5% [1] - Analysts believe that the supply-demand mismatch will remain unresolved, and the phenol market will continue to face pressure in the short term, with further downside potential [1] Group 2: Raw Materials - The two main raw materials for phenol, pure benzene and propylene, have both weakened recently, leading to insufficient cost support for phenol [2] - Pure benzene prices fell by 3.13% month-on-month in September and continued to decline by over 5% in October, with some regions seeing prices around 5400 yuan, down more than 25% year-on-year [2] - Propylene prices also dropped below 6000 yuan in several regions by the end of October, marking a new low for the year, due to weak cost support from upstream crude oil and propane prices [2] Group 3: Phenol Supply Dynamics - The continuous decline in the phenol market is closely linked to the concentrated release of production capacity, with significant new capacity coming online in Q3 [3] - Despite temporary supply tightening due to maintenance shutdowns, the overall supply remains ample, leading to persistent downward pressure on phenol prices [3] - Future supply is expected to remain abundant, with several facilities scheduled for maintenance but others ramping up production, indicating a lack of recovery in the phenol market [3] Group 4: Bisphenol A Market Challenges - The bisphenol A market is facing a significant imbalance between supply growth and slowing demand, resulting in deep losses for the industry [4] - Although bisphenol A prices briefly rose above 8200 yuan during the "golden September," the market has since entered a downward trend due to weak downstream demand [4] - The polycarbonate (PC) industry is experiencing limited new orders, with a current operating rate of 77%, down 4 percentage points from September 30, which is expected to reduce bisphenol A consumption [4] Group 5: Epoxy Resin Industry Impact - The epoxy resin industry is also struggling, with an operating rate of only 51% [5] - Recent policy changes regarding wind power have negatively impacted the epoxy resin sector, which may further reduce the procurement of bisphenol A by epoxy resin manufacturers, creating a negative feedback loop across the entire supply chain [5]

Core Viewpoint - The phenol industry chain is experiencing a "peak season not booming" scenario, with market prices declining significantly from September to October, indicating ongoing pressure and potential for further declines in the short term [1] Raw Materials: Weakness and Insufficient Support - Both pure benzene and propylene markets have weakened, leading to insufficient cost support for phenol [2] - Pure benzene prices fell by 3.13% in September and continued to decline by over 5% in October, with some regions seeing prices around 5400 yuan, down more than 25% year-on-year [2] - The high import volume of pure benzene at 4.1147 million tons in the first three quarters, up 41% year-on-year, has not improved the downstream loss situation, resulting in a lack of purchasing enthusiasm [2] - Propylene prices have also dropped below 6000 yuan, creating a new low for the year, driven by lower upstream crude oil and propane prices [2] Phenol: Oversupply and Limited Recovery - The continuous decline in the phenol market is closely linked to the concentrated release of production capacity, with significant new capacity coming online in Q3 [3] - Despite temporary supply tightening due to maintenance, the overall supply remains ample, leading to persistent price declines [3] - Future supply pressures are expected to remain high due to the restart of maintenance facilities and stable output from new capacities [3] Bisphenol A: Demand Weakness and Deep Losses - The bisphenol A market is facing a significant imbalance between supply growth and slowing demand, resulting in deep losses for the industry [4] - Although prices briefly rose above 8200 yuan during the peak season, the market has since entered a downward trend due to weak downstream demand [4] - The polycarbonate (PC) industry is experiencing limited new orders, with a current operating rate of 77%, down 4 percentage points from September [4] Downstream Impact: Epoxy Resin Industry Challenges - The epoxy resin industry is also struggling, with an operating rate of only 51% [5] - Recent policy changes regarding wind power have negatively impacted the epoxy resin sector, which may further reduce the procurement of bisphenol A and create a negative feedback loop across the entire industry chain [5]

在当前全球经济弱复苏、能源转型加速与地缘格局深刻演变的背景下，全球原油市场正面临结构性重 构。受益于南美地缘风险加剧，本周以来，国内外原油期货溢价水平提升，进而推动油价小幅反弹。不 过，面对供应过剩担忧，原油缺乏持续上行动力。预计未来供应宽松格局下，原油市场仍将继续承压， 地缘扰动难以扭转其弱势趋势。 图为美国原油产量走势（单位：千桶／日） 产业基本面主导 "欧佩克+"产油国自2025年3月以来已连续8次增产，10月会议再度决定上调产量13.7万桶／日，全年增 量预计达133万桶／日，主要来自沙特、俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和阿联酋。更关键的是，非OPEC国家供 应增长迅猛，美国、加拿大、巴西与圭亚那四国合计增产约110万桶／日，远超全球约88万桶／日的需 求增量。尤其是美国周度产量攀升至1360万桶／日，创历史新高。 与此同时，需求端季节性转弱特征明显。北半球进入秋冬季后，交通用油需求自夏季峰值回落，尽管取 暖油和船用燃料油提供一定支撑，但难以抵消整体消费下滑。国际能源署（IEA）已将2025年全球石油 需求增长预测从110万桶／日大幅下调至70万桶／日，凸显中长期需求前景的不确定性。新能源替代加 速、电动车渗透率 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure from above is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (rumors of mine resumption have emerged), and further capital, events, and news are needed to push up the price. Otherwise, the price will remain low [3] 3. Summary by Category Lithium Compounds - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 81,000 yuan with a rise of 450 yuan; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate has an average price of 78,800 yuan with a rise of 450 yuan [1] Lithium Futures Contracts - Lithium carbonate 2511 has a closing price of 80,620 yuan with a decline of 0.67%; lithium carbonate 2512 has a closing price of 82,100 yuan with no change; lithium carbonate 2601 has a closing price of 82,280 yuan with a decline of 0.1%; lithium carbonate 2602 has a closing price of 81,980 yuan with a rise of 0.27%; lithium carbonate 2603 has a closing price of 81,760 yuan with a rise of 0.02% [1] Lithium Ore - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) has an average price of 941 yuan with a decline of 3 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) has an average price of 1350 yuan with a decline of 30 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) has an average price of 2150 yuan with a decline of 30 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) has an average price of 7360 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) has an average price of 8770 yuan with a decline of 55 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 36,050 yuan with a rise of 110 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,950 yuan with a rise of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,450 yuan with a rise of 150 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 138,150 yuan with a rise of 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200 yuan with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 1280 yuan with a decline of 1050 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan with a rise of 1240 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 120 yuan with a rise of 1600 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons with a decline of 3008 tons; the smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons with a decline of 1630 tons; the downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons with a decline of 1987 tons; the other inventory (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons with a rise of 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,290 tons with a decline of 331 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 80,421 yuan, and the profit is - 557 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 84,985 yuan, and the profit is - 7158 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The narrative of strong terminal demand continues, the de - stocking of social inventory increases, and the degree of supply - demand mismatch deepens. However, from a fundamental perspective, the hedging pressure at the upper level is gradually released, weakening the upward momentum. The market has begun to show differences (there are rumors of mine restarts), and further stimulation from funds, events, and news is needed to continue to drive up prices. Otherwise, prices will remain low [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,550 yuan, up 550 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,350 yuan, up 550 yuan [1] - For lithium carbonate futures contracts, the closing price of lithium carbonate 2511 is 79,300 yuan, with a decline of 3.6%; lithium carbonate 2512 is 80,720 yuan, down 3.33%; lithium carbonate 2601 is 80,780 yuan, down 3.42%; lithium carbonate 2602 is 80,480 yuan, down 3.25%; lithium carbonate 2603 is 80,320 yuan, down 3.21% [1] Lithium Ore - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li20: 5.5% - 6%) is 944 yuan, unchanged; lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1380 yuan; lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 2180 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) is 7400 yuan, down 250 yuan; phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) is 8825 yuan, down 250 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,940 yuan, up 135 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 157,850 yuan, up 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 139,300 yuan, up 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 137,950 yuan, up 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200 yuan; the price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 230 yuan, with a change of 3170 yuan; the price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 1420 yuan, unchanged; the price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is - 1480 yuan, up 80 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 127,358 tons, down 3008 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 32,051 tons, down 1630 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 53,288 tons, down 1987 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 42,020 tons, up 610 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 27,621 tons, down 20 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate externally is 80,623 yuan, with a profit of - 1205 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate externally is 85,678 yuan, with a profit of - 8291 yuan [3]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance this year, driven by supply-demand imbalances and financial attributes under a global monetary easing backdrop [1][2]. Supply Side Summary - Supply constraints are a core support for the industrial metals sector, with global copper supply disruptions becoming a norm. An incident at Indonesia's second-largest copper mine in September is expected to reduce its 2026 output by approximately 35%, with recovery not anticipated until 2027 [1]. - Reduced capital expenditure in the mining sector due to declining global economic growth may lead to production cuts in the coming years, emphasizing the importance of supply constraints [1]. - Geopolitical factors, such as new rare earth export control policies from the Ministry of Commerce, are also impacting global supply [1]. Demand Side Summary - Traditional metals like copper and aluminum are closely linked to manufacturing and real estate, with recent price fluctuations influenced by pessimistic demand expectations. However, new industries such as AI are expanding downstream demand for non-ferrous metals [2]. - Upgrades in traditional power demand and the growth of new energy sectors, including electric vehicles and batteries, are expected to drive future demand for non-ferrous metals [2]. - The overall supply-demand balance for non-ferrous metals is currently tight, providing support for industry growth [2]. Financial Environment Summary - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, with a 25 basis point cut in September, leading to expectations of further cuts. This environment reduces the risk-free return on dollar assets, potentially shifting market liquidity towards physical assets [2]. - A weaker dollar, resulting from Fed rate cuts, could benefit commodities priced in dollars, including copper and other major metals, while also favoring precious metals like gold [2]. Investment Perspective Summary - The long-term price recovery of non-ferrous metals is supported by the aforementioned factors, despite potential short-term volatility [3]. - Investors are encouraged to consider index-based tools for overall exposure, such as mining ETFs (561330) that cover key commodities like copper, gold, and rare earths, or focus on specific products like gold ETFs (518800) and gold stock ETFs (517400) [3]. - The growth of emerging industries and the tight supply-demand balance are expected to sustain sector attractiveness, with opportunities for strategic accumulation during short-term adjustments [3].