Core Viewpoint - The significant reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a mixed reaction in the A-share market, with initial gains followed by a decline, raising questions among investors about the underlying reasons for this behavior [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The A-share market had already rebounded over 8% since the resumption of China-U.S. trade negotiations, with some export-related stocks rising over 30%, indicating that the market had priced in the expectation of tariff reductions [2]. - Following the release of the joint statement, profit-taking by investors led to increased selling pressure, resulting in a quick drop in the index after an initial high opening [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index faced significant selling pressure around the 3400-point mark, which is a previous area of high trading volume, leading to many retail investors selling to break even [3]. - The ChiNext Index also struggled with resistance at the 2100-point level, and insufficient trading volume contributed to the failure to break through this barrier [3]. Group 3: Sector Rotation and Fund Flow - Sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as cross-border e-commerce and consumer electronics, saw initial gains but then retreated, while growth sectors like photovoltaic batteries attracted continued investment, indicating a market focus on long-term industry logic rather than short-term events [4]. - Recent regulatory changes for public funds have pressured capital to shift from high-volatility stocks to undervalued blue-chip stocks, with bank stocks rising to new highs as a safe haven for investors [4]. - Although growth stocks experienced a rebound, trading volumes did not significantly increase, reflecting a market characterized by existing capital rather than new inflows, suggesting a cautious outlook [4].

Consumption Trends - In April, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while retail sales of above-limit goods were 6.6%, down 2.0 percentage points[3] - Automobile consumption saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate dropping 4.8 percentage points to 0.7%, indicating instability in consumer confidence amid the ongoing real estate cycle[3] - Essential goods and services showed resilience, with food and oil prices rising 14.0% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 3.5% year-on-year in April, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with real estate development investment down 11.3%, deepening by 1.3 percentage points[4] - The residential sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, worsening by 1.9 percentage points, while new construction area dropped 17.8% year-on-year[5] - The construction completion area experienced a significant decline of 25.8% year-on-year, marking the steepest drop since the beginning of the year[5] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth fell to 6.1% year-on-year in April, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, with mining industry value-added dropping 3.6 percentage points to 5.7%[6] - Manufacturing value-added decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.6% year-on-year, primarily affected by fluctuations in investment and consumer demand[6] - The second wave of export growth began, with electrical machinery and equipment, and computer communication equipment increasing by 13.4% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively[6] Economic Outlook - The overall economic data for April indicates a simultaneous cooling in consumption and investment, primarily driven by the real estate cycle's downturn affecting domestic demand[6] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction, aim to stabilize the real estate market and consumer confidence[6] - There is a possibility of further interest rate cuts in June to enhance support for the real estate market and consumer spending[6]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The recent phase of easing tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to alleviate the pressure on export-oriented companies, enhancing the investment value of high-growth sectors. Companies such as Zhongchong Co., Xianle Health, and Angel Yeast are highlighted as favorable investments, while companies like Guibao Pet and Petty Co. are under observation [3][11] - The snack sector continues to show potential, with Youyou Foods maintaining momentum in new channels. The company plans to stabilize its traditional offline channels while increasing investments in store displays and adjusting distributor structures to capture evolving channel opportunities [4][12] - The food and beverage sector's performance has been moderate, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Industry Index showing a weekly increase of 0.48%, ranking 17th among 30 Shenwan primary industries, and underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.64 percentage points [5][14] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Update - The easing of tariffs has catalyzed the export chain, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China has lowered tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10% for a trial period of 90 days. This marks a significant shift towards de-escalation in trade tensions [11] - The snack segment is expected to grow rapidly, with Youyou Foods seeing increased visibility and penetration in snack wholesale channels, alongside a strong performance in e-commerce [4][12] 2. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE ratio stands at 22.74, indicating an upward trend. The highest performing sub-sectors last week were health products (+8.54%) and baked goods (+2.36%) [5][14] - Among individual stocks, ST Jiaogang saw a significant increase of 35.59%, followed by Xianle Health (+19.57%) and Youyou Foods (+14.95%) [5][14] 3. Key Company Announcements - Nanchao Foods reported a revenue of RMB 273.9 million for April 2025, a slight decrease of 0.98% year-on-year [21] - Guizhou Moutai has been actively repurchasing shares, with a total of 624,646 shares repurchased from May 1 to May 16, 2025, representing 0.0497% of its total share capital [22] 4. Industry News - Moutai Group reported a stable growth in sales, with a year-on-year increase of over 30% in mainstream e-commerce channels [24] - Qingdao Beer is progressing with its new intelligent production project, expected to be operational by November 2025 [24] 5. Industry Chain Data Tracking - As of May 10, 2025, wheat prices are at RMB 2,424.1 per ton, down 6.32% year-on-year, while pork prices are at RMB 20.94 per kilogram, up 2.6% year-on-year [26][27]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The recent easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to alleviate pressure on export-oriented companies, enhancing the investment value of high-growth sectors. Companies such as Zhongchong Co., Xianle Health, and Angel Yeast are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [3][11] - The snack sector continues to show growth potential, with new channel dynamics for Youyou Foods expected to persist into Q2. Traditional offline channels faced slight pressure due to the timing of the Spring Festival, but investments in store displays and adjustments in distributor structures are anticipated to stabilize performance [4][12] - The food and beverage sector index showed a modest increase of +0.48% last week, ranking 17th among 30 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.64 percentage points. The current dynamic PE ratio for the industry is 22.74, indicating a trend of gradual upward movement [5][14] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Update - The easing of tariffs has catalyzed the export chain, with significant adjustments in tariff rates for both Chinese and American goods. This marks a phase of reduced trade tensions, benefiting export-oriented companies [11] - Companies like Zhongchong Co. and Xianle Health are positioned well due to their strategic adjustments in production and sales channels, mitigating tariff impacts [11] 2. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector index experienced a weekly increase of +0.48%, with the highest performing sub-sectors being health products (+8.54%) and baked goods (+2.36%). A total of 41 stocks in the sector saw gains, with ST Jiaogang leading at +35.59% [5][14] 3. Key Company Announcements - Nanchao Foods reported a revenue of RMB 273.9 million for April 2025, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.98% year-on-year [21] - Guizhou Moutai has been actively repurchasing shares, with a total of 624,646 shares bought back, representing 0.0497% of its total share capital [22] 4. Important Industry News - Moutai's sales through mainstream e-commerce channels have shown over 30% year-on-year growth in the first four months of the year, indicating strong market performance [24] - The restaurant industry is experiencing a rise in chain operations, with the chain rate expected to exceed 24% in 2025 [24] 5. Industry Chain Data Tracking - Recent data shows fluctuations in agricultural product prices, with wheat priced at RMB 2,424.1 per ton, down 6.32% year-on-year, and pork at RMB 20.94 per kilogram, up 2.6% year-on-year [26][27]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the freight forwarding industry, particularly focusing on shipping routes to the United States and global supply chain dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Shipping Demand and Trends**: - In early May, there was a surge in bookings for U.S. shipping routes due to positive news and speculation among primary agents, leading to a concentration of shipments for traditional bulk goods like furniture and textiles to address inventory buildup before tariff adjustments [1][2]. - The current booking prices are around $3,000, with Maersk offering discounted rates as low as $2,800, albeit without guaranteed space [4][5]. - June is expected to see a peak in supply as companies rush to replenish inventory, particularly for home appliances and furniture, although some businesses remain cautious due to tariff uncertainties [1][17]. - **Freight Forwarding Pricing Dynamics**: - Significant price discrepancies among freight forwarders are attributed to speculative warehousing, differences in customer bases, and the interplay between contract and market prices [4][5]. - The freight forwarding industry is experiencing lower profitability in Q2 compared to the previous year, with full-service logistics providers faring better than traditional FOB order service providers [3][26][27]. - **Market Conditions and Capacity**: - The current capacity for bookings in early June is relatively relaxed, with major shipping companies allowing for excess orders to gauge market demand [7][8]. - The proportion of FOB (Free on Board) shipping remains dominant at 70%-80%, with a notable shift from pre-paid contracts during the pandemic [19]. - **Impact of U.S.-China Relations**: - The easing of U.S.-China relations has made transshipment trade easier, with Southeast Asian factories operating at scale and complying with regulations [20]. - The potential for new shipping capacity entering U.S. routes is limited due to regulatory restrictions, with only a 50%-60% chance of new vessels being deployed [13]. - **Future Projections**: - A supply peak is anticipated around mid-June, driven by urgent inventory replenishment needs, although the overall market dynamics remain uncertain due to tariff sharing issues [17][18]. - The European shipping market is expected to see price increases, with projections for July rates reaching around $3,000 [31][32]. Other Important Insights - **Operational Challenges**: - The logistics of moving goods from factories to ports can take 1-2 weeks, with additional delays possible depending on transportation methods [11]. - The risk associated with origin certification and third-country transshipment services is high, leading traditional freight forwarders to avoid these high-risk areas [21][22]. - **Market Sentiment**: - There is a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of shipping demand, but many companies are still in a wait-and-see mode due to ongoing uncertainties in tariffs and market conditions [17][18]. - **Technological Adoption**: - The freight forwarding industry is still transitioning towards more digital solutions, with varying preferences for online versus offline booking depending on the shipping company [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the freight forwarding industry.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the **chemical industry**, **steel industry**, **non-ferrous metals industry**, and **transportation sector** including **shipping and aviation**. Core Points and Arguments Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low valuation, presenting a good investment opportunity. The CSI Chemical Leaders Index has outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 13.4% and the CSI Basic Chemical Engineering Index by 17% since September 2024 [3][4] - Chemical product prices have significantly rebounded, with MDI prices rising from 14,000 RMB to over 17,000 RMB per ton, indicating a recovery to pre-conflict levels [3][5] - Capital expenditures in the chemical industry have decreased for two consecutive years, signaling a clear turning point in the product cycle. Major companies like Wanhua and Satellite are expected to see significant net value growth from late 2025 to early 2026 [4][5] - Cost pressures in the chemical industry have decreased, with coal prices dropping to around 600 RMB per ton, and oil prices falling from the 70-90 USD range to 55-65 USD, improving the fundamentals for leading companies [5] Steel Industry - The steel sector has experienced a surge in exports due to tariff disturbances, with a 8.2% increase in steel exports in the first four months of the year. However, the growth rate may decline as overseas inventories accumulate [6] - The actual impact of tariffs on the steel sector is limited, with the current tax rate remaining at 70%. Investment opportunities should focus on basic materials, high-dividend stocks, and companies with good overseas layouts [6][7] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The easing of tariffs has improved macro risk appetite, providing a temporary investment opportunity for the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly benefiting the aluminum sector [8] - The Chinese aluminum export to the U.S. has significantly decreased due to tariffs, with exports dropping by about 20% in the first quarter of the year. The recovery of indirect exports is crucial for boosting overall industry demand [9] Transportation Sector - The shipping industry is expected to see an increase in freight rates due to tariff easing, with the average freight rate for the West America route rising from 2,400 USD to 3,100 USD, a 31% increase [11][12] - The aviation sector is experiencing a positive shift in fundamentals, with a decrease in supply-side pressures and a recovery in demand. The cost of aviation fuel has decreased by 13% year-on-year, leading to significant improvements in profitability for airlines [14][15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The Guinean government has reclaimed some bauxite mining rights, leading to an increase in alumina prices. Companies with low-cost integrated operations, such as China Aluminum and Nanshan International, are recommended for investment [10] - The shipping companies' valuations are expected to decrease to around 8 times PE, with dividend yields for major companies like COSCO Shipping expected to rise as profitability improves [13] - The aviation industry is seeing a gradual recovery in ticket prices, which are expected to stabilize compared to last year, despite the high costs associated with importing aircraft and parts from the U.S. [14][15]

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： ◆ 烧碱： 5 月 15 日受魏桥上调采购价和氧化铝大涨影响，主力 SH09 合约收 2567 元/吨（+37），山东市场主流价 830 元/吨（0），折百 2594 元/吨（0）， 液氯山东-50 元/吨（-100）。5 月 16 日开始，山东地区某氧化铝厂家采 购 32%离子膜碱价格上调 15 元/吨，执行出厂 760 元/吨（折百 2375 元/ 吨）。截至 20250515，隆众资讯统计全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本 企业厂库库存 41.59 万吨(湿吨)，环比上调 7.09%，同比上涨 1.74%。山 东意外检修较多，近期液氯与烧碱价格均反弹。中期看，供应端，减产 装置中下旬陆续恢复，利润尚可、开工高位，新装置有少量投产预期， 库存高位去库不畅，供应同比压力偏大。需求端，关税影响烧碱下游非 铝行业需求（如印染化纤），非铝有补库放缓，五月后步入淡季；氧化 铝投产与降负并存，边际企业亏损减停产增多，需求边际转弱预期，魏 桥的烧碱日均收货量低于日耗，支撑采购价上涨；海外有氧化铝新投产， 烧碱出口存一定支撑，呈现阶段性签单。总的来看，短期供应减量和关 税缓和有支撑 ...

美债收益率回到了4月美债抛售潮期间的高点。 美债收益率"高烧"不退。5月15日，美国10年期美债收益率自2月以来首次收于4.5%以上，偿债成本回到了4月美债抛售潮期间的高点，市场对美联储降息的 预期再次被削弱。 相比之下，中国债市并未受到明显影响，债市受到上周降准降息的提振，而本周各期限债券收益率相较于关税缓和之前的水平仅略有回升。 贝莱德基金首席固定收益投资官刘鑫在15日接受第一财经记者采访时表示，随着汇率掣肘消退，未来中国或仍有1次降息，带动短端利率下行10~20BP（基 点），整体资金利率的下降也有助于在债券供给放大下维护债市稳定，因而短债更受到利好，考虑到5~6 月政府债融资增加和逆周期政策落地刺激需求，预 计长债走势偏震荡。 美债收益率"高烧"不退 5月15日，美债收益率进一步上行5-7BP，10年期美债收益率自2月以来首次收于4.5%以上，30年期则逼近5%，市场对美联储降息的预期再次被削弱。期货市 场上有大型投资者买入看跌美债期权，目标收益率已高达4.8%。 美联储副主席杰斐逊隔夜表示，关税及相关不确定性今年可能减缓增长并推高通胀，但货币政策准备好适时应对。若已宣布的关税措施持续，可能会阻碍通 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is currently influenced by macro factors, with limited fundamental drivers. The expected rebound space is restricted, and attention should be paid to macro news [2]. - For caustic soda, there is short - term support from supply reduction and tariff easing, but in the medium term, the 09 contract is mainly bearish. Attention should be paid to factors such as delivery volume, inventory depletion, alumina production, and exports [3]. - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. Although there is short - term support from high raw material prices, the upward drive is insufficient due to expected supply increase and weak downstream demand [4][5]. - Urea supply is stable, and the concentrated release of fertilizer demand will support the price. The export situation is undetermined, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [6]. - Methanol supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand has limited short - term承接 capacity, so it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [7]. - The plastic market is under supply pressure in the second quarter. Although there is short - term market boost from trade negotiation news, downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, policies, and other factors [8]. Summary by Product PVC - On May 14, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4987 yuan/ton (+149), with different market prices rising. The basis weakened. The inventory is high but slightly lower than last year. In the long - term, demand is weak due to the real estate downturn and export restrictions. The supply side has new investment plans. The market is macro - dominated, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 14, the SH09 contract closed at 2530 yuan/ton (+30). Some prices in the Shandong market changed. The inventory increased year - on - year and month - on - month. There are short - term supports, but in the medium term, supply is sufficient and demand growth is limited, so the 09 contract is mainly bearish [3]. Rubber - On May 14, rubber was strong. Supported by high raw material prices in the short term, but the inventory increased slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate [4][5]. Urea - The urea main contract fell 0.89% to 1886 yuan/ton. Supply is stable, demand from fertilizer use will be concentrated, and the inventory changed from accumulation to depletion. Attention should be paid to multiple factors [6]. Methanol - The methanol main contract rose 0.86% to 2353 yuan/ton. Supply is expected to increase, downstream demand has limited short - term承接 capacity, and it is expected to oscillate widely [7]. Plastic - On May 14, the plastic main contract rose 2.11% to 7339 yuan/ton. The second - quarter supply pressure is high, downstream demand is weak, and there is short - term market boost from trade negotiation news [8].

金融衍生品研究所 基本面分析报告 金融衍生品日报 2025 年 05 月 13 日 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号： F0211891 投资咨询从业证号： Z000567 ：021-65789277 ：sunfeng@chinastock.com.cn 研究员：彭烜 期货从业证号： F3035416 投资咨询从业证号： Z0015142 ：pengxuan_qh@chinastock.com.cn 研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号： F3053225 投资咨询从业证号： Z0015885 ：shenchen_qh@chinastock.com.cn 金融衍生品日报 一、财经要闻 1. 习近平在中拉论坛第四届部长级会议开幕式的主旨讲话中提出，当前，世界百年变 局加速演进，多重风险交织叠加，各国唯有团结协作，才能维护世界和平稳定，促进全球发 展繁荣。关税战、贸易战没有赢家，霸凌霸道只会孤立自身。 2. 数据显示，今日南向资金净流入 22.61 亿元。 3. 央行公告称，5 月 13 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1800 亿元 7 天期逆回购操 作，操作利率 1.40%。数据显示，当日 4050 亿元逆回购到期 ...