Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding report industry investment ratings is provided in the content. Core Views of the Report Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: Short - term supply pressure is limited during the concentrated maintenance period. Demand from the alumina industry is expected to increase. However, there are risks from non - aluminum demand pressure and rising valuations after cost reduction. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and try positive spreads for the 6 - 9 contracts [7]. - **PVC**: The recent rebound is due to macro - stimulus, export support, and supply - demand factors. But in the long - term, there is an obvious oversupply pressure, and potential negative factors exist. It is suggested to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling idea in the medium - term, with a resistance level of around 5100 for the 09 contract [7]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices are in a volatile trend, lacking strong drivers. The market is mainly affected by macro and supply factors. Short - term prices will continue to fluctuate, and the implied volatility is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, a trading - band strategy is recommended, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be observed. Attention should also be paid to the INE spread rebound opportunities and options' volatility - trading opportunities [12]. Styrene Industry - The recent rebound of styrene is due to tariff relief and low - inventory support. But high - price spot shows signs of weakness, and there are problems in the downstream and raw - material supply. It is expected to have more downward space, and the strategy is to short - sell at a high price around 7800 for the near - month contracts and pay attention to the widening opportunity of the EB - BZ spread [23]. Polyester Industry - **PX**: Supply is increasing, and the supply - demand situation is marginally weakening. It is relatively resistant to decline in the short - term. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 6500 - 6600 and try a reverse spread for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the basis has declined. It is also relatively resistant to decline. The strategy is to pay attention to the support at 4600 and take a reverse - spread approach for the 9 - 1 contracts [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Supply is expected to contract, and inventory is decreasing. The strategy is to wait and see on the single - side and try a positive spread for the 9 - 1 contracts at a low price [27]. - **Short - fiber**: The processing fee may be repaired. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at a low level [27]. - **Polyester Bottle - chip**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the processing fee is low. The strategy is the same as PTA for the single - side, and the processing fee should be expanded at the lower limit of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [27]. Polyolefin Industry - For LLDPE and PP, the supply of LLDPE is expected to decrease in inventory before early June, while the supply pressure of PP will increase after late May. Demand lacks sustainability. The strategy is to short - sell PP at a high price and pay attention to the expansion of the LP spread [31]. Methanol Industry - The port inventory is at a turning point, and the supply is increasing while the demand is in the off - season. The 09 contract's supply - demand situation is more relaxed. The strategy is to short - sell around 2300 - 2350 with a target of around 2100, and the MTO spread should be operated within 0 - 500 [34]. Urea Industry - The supply is at a high level, while the demand is under pressure from the decline of compound - fertilizer plants and stagnant agricultural fertilization. The short - term market is likely to move in a range after the decline [38]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On May 26, the 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2687.5 yuan/ton (in 100% equivalent), and the 50% was 2840 yuan/ton. The PVC market prices in East China were 4760 yuan/ton for the calcium - carbide method and 5000 yuan/ton for the ethylene method [2]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 22 was 405 dollars/ton, with an export profit of 32.1 yuan/ton. For PVC, the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 670 dollars/ton, and the export profit was 40.3 yuan/ton [3][4]. - **Supply**: The caustic - soda industry's operating rate on May 23 was 86.9%, and the PVC total operating rate was 73.1% [5]. - **Demand**: The alumina industry's operating rate on May 23 was 78%, and the PVC downstream pipe - making and profile - making operating rates were 45.3% and 39.6% respectively [6][7]. - **Inventory**: On May 22, the liquid - caustic soda inventory in East China factories was 19.1 tons, and the PVC upstream factory inventory was 38.7 tons [7]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 27, Brent was 64.71 dollars/barrel, WTI was 61.47 dollars/barrel, and SC was 455.90 yuan/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was 3.24 dollars/barrel [12]. - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The market is affected by OPEC+ production policies, geopolitical factors such as the US - Iran nuclear talks, and macro - economic policies [12]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.7 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was 780 dollars/ton [20]. - **Spot and Futures**: The styrene spot price in East China on May 26 was 7825 yuan/ton, and the EB2506 futures price was 7341 yuan/ton [21]. - **Overseas Quotes and Import Profits**: The styrene CFR China price on May 26 was 896 dollars/ton, and the import profit was 271.5 yuan/ton [22]. - **Industry Operating Rates and Profits**: On May 23, the domestic pure - benzene comprehensive operating rate was 71.6%, and the styrene operating rate was 69.3% [23]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: On May 26, Brent crude oil (July) was 64.74 dollars/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha was 566 dollars/ton, and CFR China PX was 834 dollars/ton [27]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On May 26, the POY150/48 price was 6990 yuan/ton, and the FDY150/96 price was 7275 yuan/ton [27]. - **Industry Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Asian PX operating rate was 69.4%, the PTA operating rate was 77.1%, and the polyester comprehensive operating rate was 95% [27]. Polyolefin Industry - **PE and PP Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the L2505 closing price was 7008 yuan/ton, and the PP2505 closing price was 6888 yuan/ton [31]. - **Non - standard Prices**: The East China LDPE price on May 26 was 8930 yuan/ton [31]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: On May 23, the PE device operating rate was 78%, and the PP device operating rate was 76.8%. The PE enterprise inventory was 49.8 tons, and the PP enterprise inventory was 59.3 tons [31]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the MA2501 closing price was 2293 yuan/ton, and the regional spread between Taicang and Inner Mongolia's northern line was 338 yuan/ton [34]. - **Inventory**: On May 23, the methanol enterprise inventory was 33.401 tons, and the port inventory was 49 tons [34]. - **Operating Rates**: On May 23, the Shanghai - domestic enterprise operating rate was 74.51%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate was 75.7% [34]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On May 26, the 01 - contract price was 1737 yuan/ton, and the spread between the 01 and 05 contracts was - 12 yuan/ton [38]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: On May 26, the price of anthracite small pieces (Dangcheng) was 1000 yuan/ton, and the price of steam - coal at the pithead (Ejin Horo Banner) was 418 yuan/ton [38]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: On May 23, the domestic urea daily output was 20.48 tons, and the factory inventory was 91.74 tons [38].

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Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market currently has high inventory, but the basis provides some support in the short - term. In the long - run, due to weak demand and over - capacity, the price is mainly driven by the macro - environment, and the expected rebound space is limited [2]. - The caustic soda market has high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting [3]. - The rubber market has fundamental pressure, with slow short - term supply increase and high raw material prices providing some support, but the overall upward drive is insufficient due to strong future supply increase expectations and weak demand [4][5]. - The urea market has stable supply and expected demand release, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. - The methanol market has relatively abundant supply and strong downstream demand wait - and - see sentiment. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. - The plastic market has reduced supply pressure due to increased maintenance, but weak downstream demand. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8]. Summary by Product PVC - On May 22, the PVC 09 contract closed at 4926 yuan/ton (- 43), and the market prices in different regions showed different trends. The basis strengthened recently, providing some support to the futures price [2]. - In the long - term, demand is dragged down by the real estate industry, and exports are restricted. The supply side has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. The price is mainly affected by the macro - environment [2]. - The short - term tariff relief exceeds expectations, but the actual impact on demand is still expected to exist. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to tariff progress [2]. Caustic Soda - On May 22, the caustic soda SH09 contract closed at 2528 yuan/ton (+ 1), and the market prices in Shandong increased. The inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is high and the de - stocking is not smooth [3]. - The supply side has high - profit and high -开工, with new device production expectations. The demand side is affected by tariffs, and the non - aluminum industry's demand has slowed down. The alumina industry has mixed production situations [3]. - The short - term is in a volatile state, and the medium - term 09 contract is mainly for shorting. It is necessary to pay attention to multiple factors such as delivery volume, inventory de - stocking, and alumina production [3]. Rubber - On May 22, the rubber price center declined slightly. The short - term supply increase is slow, and the high raw material prices provide some support, but the future supply increase expectation is strong and the demand is weak [4][5]. - As of May 18, the inventory in Qingdao and the social inventory of natural rubber showed different trends. The capacity utilization rates of semi - steel and full - steel tire sample enterprises changed, and the inventory continued to increase [5]. - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China are provided, and the basis between Yunnan full - latex and the RU main contract changed [5]. Urea - The urea 2509 contract fell 0.48% to close at 1849 yuan/ton, and the spot price continued to decline slightly. The supply side has stable production, and the cost of anthracite is stable or decreasing [6]. - The demand side shows that the capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The demand support of other industrial sectors is weak. The inventory of urea enterprises has decreased, and the port inventory has increased [6]. - The supply is stable, and the demand is expected to be released, but there is obvious upward price pressure. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [6]. Methanol - The methanol 2509 contract fell 1.1% to close at 2241 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Taicang decreased. The supply side has a reduced capacity utilization rate and production volume [7]. - The cost of coal - to - methanol has decreased slightly, and most are in a profitable state. The demand side shows that the olefin industry's开工 rate has decreased, and the traditional demand has limited support [7]. - The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the port inventory has decreased. It is expected to run in a volatile manner [7]. Plastic - On May 22, the plastic 2509 contract fell 1.01% to close at 7159 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of plastics decreased. The supply side has reduced开工 and production due to increased maintenance losses [8]. - The demand side shows that the export of plastic products has increased in the short - term, but the demand for agricultural films has declined, and the demand for packaging films and pipes is average [8]. - The inventory pressure has been relieved to some extent, but the future market expectation is still weak. It is expected to have a wide - range volatile run in the short - term [8].

Core Viewpoint - The significant reduction in tariffs between China and the U.S. has led to a mixed reaction in the A-share market, with initial gains followed by a decline, raising questions among investors about the underlying reasons for this behavior [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The A-share market had already rebounded over 8% since the resumption of China-U.S. trade negotiations, with some export-related stocks rising over 30%, indicating that the market had priced in the expectation of tariff reductions [2]. - Following the release of the joint statement, profit-taking by investors led to increased selling pressure, resulting in a quick drop in the index after an initial high opening [2]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index faced significant selling pressure around the 3400-point mark, which is a previous area of high trading volume, leading to many retail investors selling to break even [3]. - The ChiNext Index also struggled with resistance at the 2100-point level, and insufficient trading volume contributed to the failure to break through this barrier [3]. Group 3: Sector Rotation and Fund Flow - Sectors benefiting from tariff reductions, such as cross-border e-commerce and consumer electronics, saw initial gains but then retreated, while growth sectors like photovoltaic batteries attracted continued investment, indicating a market focus on long-term industry logic rather than short-term events [4]. - Recent regulatory changes for public funds have pressured capital to shift from high-volatility stocks to undervalued blue-chip stocks, with bank stocks rising to new highs as a safe haven for investors [4]. - Although growth stocks experienced a rebound, trading volumes did not significantly increase, reflecting a market characterized by existing capital rather than new inflows, suggesting a cautious outlook [4].

Consumption Trends - In April, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales was 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, while retail sales of above-limit goods were 6.6%, down 2.0 percentage points[3] - Automobile consumption saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year growth rate dropping 4.8 percentage points to 0.7%, indicating instability in consumer confidence amid the ongoing real estate cycle[3] - Essential goods and services showed resilience, with food and oil prices rising 14.0% year-on-year, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment growth fell to 3.5% year-on-year in April, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, with real estate development investment down 11.3%, deepening by 1.3 percentage points[4] - The residential sales area saw a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, worsening by 1.9 percentage points, while new construction area dropped 17.8% year-on-year[5] - The construction completion area experienced a significant decline of 25.8% year-on-year, marking the steepest drop since the beginning of the year[5] Industrial Production - Industrial value-added growth fell to 6.1% year-on-year in April, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, with mining industry value-added dropping 3.6 percentage points to 5.7%[6] - Manufacturing value-added decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 6.6% year-on-year, primarily affected by fluctuations in investment and consumer demand[6] - The second wave of export growth began, with electrical machinery and equipment, and computer communication equipment increasing by 13.4% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively[6] Economic Outlook - The overall economic data for April indicates a simultaneous cooling in consumption and investment, primarily driven by the real estate cycle's downturn affecting domestic demand[6] - The central bank's recent actions, including a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate reduction, aim to stabilize the real estate market and consumer confidence[6] - There is a possibility of further interest rate cuts in June to enhance support for the real estate market and consumer spending[6]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The recent phase of easing tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to alleviate the pressure on export-oriented companies, enhancing the investment value of high-growth sectors. Companies such as Zhongchong Co., Xianle Health, and Angel Yeast are highlighted as favorable investments, while companies like Guibao Pet and Petty Co. are under observation [3][11] - The snack sector continues to show potential, with Youyou Foods maintaining momentum in new channels. The company plans to stabilize its traditional offline channels while increasing investments in store displays and adjusting distributor structures to capture evolving channel opportunities [4][12] - The food and beverage sector's performance has been moderate, with the Shenwan Food and Beverage Industry Index showing a weekly increase of 0.48%, ranking 17th among 30 Shenwan primary industries, and underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.64 percentage points [5][14] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Update - The easing of tariffs has catalyzed the export chain, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China has lowered tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10% for a trial period of 90 days. This marks a significant shift towards de-escalation in trade tensions [11] - The snack segment is expected to grow rapidly, with Youyou Foods seeing increased visibility and penetration in snack wholesale channels, alongside a strong performance in e-commerce [4][12] 2. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector's dynamic PE ratio stands at 22.74, indicating an upward trend. The highest performing sub-sectors last week were health products (+8.54%) and baked goods (+2.36%) [5][14] - Among individual stocks, ST Jiaogang saw a significant increase of 35.59%, followed by Xianle Health (+19.57%) and Youyou Foods (+14.95%) [5][14] 3. Key Company Announcements - Nanchao Foods reported a revenue of RMB 273.9 million for April 2025, a slight decrease of 0.98% year-on-year [21] - Guizhou Moutai has been actively repurchasing shares, with a total of 624,646 shares repurchased from May 1 to May 16, 2025, representing 0.0497% of its total share capital [22] 4. Industry News - Moutai Group reported a stable growth in sales, with a year-on-year increase of over 30% in mainstream e-commerce channels [24] - Qingdao Beer is progressing with its new intelligent production project, expected to be operational by November 2025 [24] 5. Industry Chain Data Tracking - As of May 10, 2025, wheat prices are at RMB 2,424.1 per ton, down 6.32% year-on-year, while pork prices are at RMB 20.94 per kilogram, up 2.6% year-on-year [26][27]

Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The recent easing of tariffs between China and the U.S. is expected to alleviate pressure on export-oriented companies, enhancing the investment value of high-growth sectors. Companies such as Zhongchong Co., Xianle Health, and Angel Yeast are highlighted as potential beneficiaries [3][11] - The snack sector continues to show growth potential, with new channel dynamics for Youyou Foods expected to persist into Q2. Traditional offline channels faced slight pressure due to the timing of the Spring Festival, but investments in store displays and adjustments in distributor structures are anticipated to stabilize performance [4][12] - The food and beverage sector index showed a modest increase of +0.48% last week, ranking 17th among 30 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.64 percentage points. The current dynamic PE ratio for the industry is 22.74, indicating a trend of gradual upward movement [5][14] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Update - The easing of tariffs has catalyzed the export chain, with significant adjustments in tariff rates for both Chinese and American goods. This marks a phase of reduced trade tensions, benefiting export-oriented companies [11] - Companies like Zhongchong Co. and Xianle Health are positioned well due to their strategic adjustments in production and sales channels, mitigating tariff impacts [11] 2. Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector index experienced a weekly increase of +0.48%, with the highest performing sub-sectors being health products (+8.54%) and baked goods (+2.36%). A total of 41 stocks in the sector saw gains, with ST Jiaogang leading at +35.59% [5][14] 3. Key Company Announcements - Nanchao Foods reported a revenue of RMB 273.9 million for April 2025, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.98% year-on-year [21] - Guizhou Moutai has been actively repurchasing shares, with a total of 624,646 shares bought back, representing 0.0497% of its total share capital [22] 4. Important Industry News - Moutai's sales through mainstream e-commerce channels have shown over 30% year-on-year growth in the first four months of the year, indicating strong market performance [24] - The restaurant industry is experiencing a rise in chain operations, with the chain rate expected to exceed 24% in 2025 [24] 5. Industry Chain Data Tracking - Recent data shows fluctuations in agricultural product prices, with wheat priced at RMB 2,424.1 per ton, down 6.32% year-on-year, and pork at RMB 20.94 per kilogram, up 2.6% year-on-year [26][27]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the freight forwarding industry, particularly focusing on shipping routes to the United States and global supply chain dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Shipping Demand and Trends**: - In early May, there was a surge in bookings for U.S. shipping routes due to positive news and speculation among primary agents, leading to a concentration of shipments for traditional bulk goods like furniture and textiles to address inventory buildup before tariff adjustments [1][2]. - The current booking prices are around $3,000, with Maersk offering discounted rates as low as $2,800, albeit without guaranteed space [4][5]. - June is expected to see a peak in supply as companies rush to replenish inventory, particularly for home appliances and furniture, although some businesses remain cautious due to tariff uncertainties [1][17]. - **Freight Forwarding Pricing Dynamics**: - Significant price discrepancies among freight forwarders are attributed to speculative warehousing, differences in customer bases, and the interplay between contract and market prices [4][5]. - The freight forwarding industry is experiencing lower profitability in Q2 compared to the previous year, with full-service logistics providers faring better than traditional FOB order service providers [3][26][27]. - **Market Conditions and Capacity**: - The current capacity for bookings in early June is relatively relaxed, with major shipping companies allowing for excess orders to gauge market demand [7][8]. - The proportion of FOB (Free on Board) shipping remains dominant at 70%-80%, with a notable shift from pre-paid contracts during the pandemic [19]. - **Impact of U.S.-China Relations**: - The easing of U.S.-China relations has made transshipment trade easier, with Southeast Asian factories operating at scale and complying with regulations [20]. - The potential for new shipping capacity entering U.S. routes is limited due to regulatory restrictions, with only a 50%-60% chance of new vessels being deployed [13]. - **Future Projections**: - A supply peak is anticipated around mid-June, driven by urgent inventory replenishment needs, although the overall market dynamics remain uncertain due to tariff sharing issues [17][18]. - The European shipping market is expected to see price increases, with projections for July rates reaching around $3,000 [31][32]. Other Important Insights - **Operational Challenges**: - The logistics of moving goods from factories to ports can take 1-2 weeks, with additional delays possible depending on transportation methods [11]. - The risk associated with origin certification and third-country transshipment services is high, leading traditional freight forwarders to avoid these high-risk areas [21][22]. - **Market Sentiment**: - There is a cautious optimism regarding the recovery of shipping demand, but many companies are still in a wait-and-see mode due to ongoing uncertainties in tariffs and market conditions [17][18]. - **Technological Adoption**: - The freight forwarding industry is still transitioning towards more digital solutions, with varying preferences for online versus offline booking depending on the shipping company [23][24]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the freight forwarding industry.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the **chemical industry**, **steel industry**, **non-ferrous metals industry**, and **transportation sector** including **shipping and aviation**. Core Points and Arguments Chemical Industry - The chemical industry is currently at a historical low valuation, presenting a good investment opportunity. The CSI Chemical Leaders Index has outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 13.4% and the CSI Basic Chemical Engineering Index by 17% since September 2024 [3][4] - Chemical product prices have significantly rebounded, with MDI prices rising from 14,000 RMB to over 17,000 RMB per ton, indicating a recovery to pre-conflict levels [3][5] - Capital expenditures in the chemical industry have decreased for two consecutive years, signaling a clear turning point in the product cycle. Major companies like Wanhua and Satellite are expected to see significant net value growth from late 2025 to early 2026 [4][5] - Cost pressures in the chemical industry have decreased, with coal prices dropping to around 600 RMB per ton, and oil prices falling from the 70-90 USD range to 55-65 USD, improving the fundamentals for leading companies [5] Steel Industry - The steel sector has experienced a surge in exports due to tariff disturbances, with a 8.2% increase in steel exports in the first four months of the year. However, the growth rate may decline as overseas inventories accumulate [6] - The actual impact of tariffs on the steel sector is limited, with the current tax rate remaining at 70%. Investment opportunities should focus on basic materials, high-dividend stocks, and companies with good overseas layouts [6][7] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The easing of tariffs has improved macro risk appetite, providing a temporary investment opportunity for the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly benefiting the aluminum sector [8] - The Chinese aluminum export to the U.S. has significantly decreased due to tariffs, with exports dropping by about 20% in the first quarter of the year. The recovery of indirect exports is crucial for boosting overall industry demand [9] Transportation Sector - The shipping industry is expected to see an increase in freight rates due to tariff easing, with the average freight rate for the West America route rising from 2,400 USD to 3,100 USD, a 31% increase [11][12] - The aviation sector is experiencing a positive shift in fundamentals, with a decrease in supply-side pressures and a recovery in demand. The cost of aviation fuel has decreased by 13% year-on-year, leading to significant improvements in profitability for airlines [14][15] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The Guinean government has reclaimed some bauxite mining rights, leading to an increase in alumina prices. Companies with low-cost integrated operations, such as China Aluminum and Nanshan International, are recommended for investment [10] - The shipping companies' valuations are expected to decrease to around 8 times PE, with dividend yields for major companies like COSCO Shipping expected to rise as profitability improves [13] - The aviation industry is seeing a gradual recovery in ticket prices, which are expected to stabilize compared to last year, despite the high costs associated with importing aircraft and parts from the U.S. [14][15]

能源化工日报 日度观点: ◆ PVC： ◆ 烧碱： 5 月 15 日受魏桥上调采购价和氧化铝大涨影响，主力 SH09 合约收 2567 元/吨（+37），山东市场主流价 830 元/吨（0），折百 2594 元/吨（0）， 液氯山东-50 元/吨（-100）。5 月 16 日开始，山东地区某氧化铝厂家采 购 32%离子膜碱价格上调 15 元/吨，执行出厂 760 元/吨（折百 2375 元/ 吨）。截至 20250515，隆众资讯统计全国 20 万吨及以上固定液碱样本 企业厂库库存 41.59 万吨(湿吨)，环比上调 7.09%，同比上涨 1.74%。山 东意外检修较多，近期液氯与烧碱价格均反弹。中期看，供应端，减产 装置中下旬陆续恢复，利润尚可、开工高位，新装置有少量投产预期， 库存高位去库不畅，供应同比压力偏大。需求端，关税影响烧碱下游非 铝行业需求（如印染化纤），非铝有补库放缓，五月后步入淡季；氧化 铝投产与降负并存，边际企业亏损减停产增多，需求边际转弱预期，魏 桥的烧碱日均收货量低于日耗，支撑采购价上涨；海外有氧化铝新投产， 烧碱出口存一定支撑，呈现阶段性签单。总的来看，短期供应减量和关 税缓和有支撑 ...