1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for a clear bottom signal and consider left - side buying opportunities at low prices [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices have dropped significantly, driving the cost side of asphalt negatively and causing the BU futures price to decline. The overall fundamentals of asphalt are still weak, but the gradual release of winter storage demand provides some support. If oil prices stop falling, the downside space of the asphalt market may be limited, but a rebound requires more positive factors. Potential positive factors may come from an increase in crude oil costs. If the Venezuelan crisis persists, it may lead to a decline in heavy oil supply and drive up the asphalt cost center [1] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 16th, the closing price of the main BU2602 contract in the afternoon session was 2,894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton or 2.36% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 237,057 lots, an increase of 29,936 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 372,360 lots, an increase of 161,403 lots [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong: 2,840 - 3,270 yuan/ton; South China: 2,920 - 3,100 yuan/ton; East China: 3,100 - 3,220 yuan/ton. The spot prices in North China, Shandong, and South China decreased, while those in other regions remained stable [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a neutral stance, wait for a clear bottom signal, and pay attention to left - side buying opportunities at low prices [2] - Cross - variety: No strategy [2] - Cross - period: No strategy [2] - Spot - futures: No strategy [2] - Options: No strategy [2] Figures - The report includes figures on the spot prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), the closing prices of the petroleum asphalt futures index, main contract, and near - month contract, the price difference between near - month contracts, the trading volume and open interest of petroleum asphalt futures, domestic asphalt weekly production, production of independent refineries and in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories in refineries and society [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a rating of "Oscillating with an upward bias" for the hot-rolled coil industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of hot-rolled coils is expected to continue to decline, providing support, and the stabilization of furnace materials has increased cost support. The market has digested the off-season demand and export license management news. With positive macro expectations, winter storage demand is expected to start, but attention should be paid to whether the inventory pressure can be relieved. The price of hot-rolled coils is expected to continue to oscillate with an upward bias [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情 Review - The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures oscillated with an upward bias during the day, closing at 3254 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.65%. It has shown a stable recovery trend in the past two trading days [1] - The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream region, was reported at 3270 yuan/ton [2] - The basis between futures and spot was 24 yuan, close to flat water [3] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of December 11, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils decreased by 5.6 tons week-on-week to 308.71 tons, and decreased by 11.41 tons year-on-year. Recent production has been continuously declining, and steel mills may have the expectation of switching production to rebar, which may marginally reduce the supply of hot-rolled coils [4] - **Demand**: The weekly apparent consumption decreased by 2.89 tons week-on-week to 311.97 tons, and decreased by 5.02 tons year-on-year. Domestic manufacturing demand is weak, with purchases mainly for rigid needs and a weak willingness to stock up actively. Export demand is good, sharing the domestic supply pressure and providing support [4] - **Inventory**: The total inventory decreased by 3.26 tons week-on-week to 397.09 tons (social inventory decreased by 7.37 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 4.11 tons). The total inventory is at a four-year high, and inventory pressure continues to accumulate. Attention should be paid to the further inventory reduction speed [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish factors**: The expectation of supply reduction has increased, winter storage demand has started, there is policy support (such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" and infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal have increased cost support [5] - **Bearish factors**: The demand has weakened seasonally, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global crude oil supply and demand are becoming more relaxed, and the progress of the peace talks led by the US has increased concerns about the release of Russian oil supply, causing oil prices to drop to their lowest level this year [1] - Precious metals continued to be strong overnight. The loose trading continued after the Fed meeting, and gold is approaching its historical high. If it breaks through, the strong performance of precious metals is expected to continue [2] - The prices of various metals and commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and cost factors, showing different trends of rise, fall, or shock [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: EU sanctions on Russia and US sanctions on Venezuela have affected the global oil market. Under the background of loose supply and demand, the potential release of Russian oil supply after the peace talks has put pressure on oil prices [1] - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. - **Coal**: No relevant content provided. - **Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)**: No relevant content provided. - **Carbon Emission Rights**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold is approaching its historical high, and platinum and palladium are at high levels. The relatively low - valued platinum and palladium are favored by long - position funds. The long - term allocation rhythm is clear [2] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper rose and then gave back some gains. The high position volume in the Shanghai copper market suggests that long - position investors should temporarily reduce their positions and wait and see [3] - **Aluminum**: The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged. Long - position investors can hold their positions based on certain support levels and leave the market if they break [4] - **Zinc**: The LME's position limit plan is expected to end the soft squeeze on the outer market. The internal and external price difference is likely to converge, and it is a good time for cross - market reverse arbitrage. Shanghai zinc is in a short - term rebound [7] Chemicals - **Synthetic Materials** - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand is weak, with low downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [25] - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The production of polypropylene is expected to increase slightly, and the short - term demand is weak [25] - **Basic Chemicals** - **Methanol**: The methanol market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The supply - demand situation is difficult to improve significantly in the short term, and it is expected to be weak [22] - **Urea**: The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [21] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The weather in South America has improved, and the US soybean data has not been adjusted. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories have decreased. The strategy is to wait for the weather changes in South America and go long on the main contract at low prices [33] - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil market is facing high - inventory pressure and is expected to be neutral or weak in the short term [34] - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is still abundant, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term. The medium - to - long - term price may have a second bottom [38] - **Eggs**: The egg futures price of the 01 contract is leading the market, but the price is still in the previous range. The far - month contract needs to pay attention to chick replenishment and old - hen culling [39] - **Cash Crops** - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price has risen significantly. There are rumors that the planting area in Xinjiang will decrease next year. The sales progress is fast, and the demand is stable. The industry can consider hedging opportunities [40] - **Sugar**: The international sugar market supply is sufficient, and the US sugar faces pressure. The production progress in Guangxi is slow, but the production forecast for the 25/26 season is good [41] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFIS European route index has been released, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate. The spot price is expected to rise, but there are risks such as additional supply pressure. The far - month 04 contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market and stock index futures fell yesterday. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly upward pattern in the short term, depending on the implementation of domestic economic policies [45] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is in a warm - up and volatile state. In the short term, it is difficult to break through the volatile adjustment pattern, and attention should be paid to the previous interest rate high points [46]

《博源化工子公司阿拉善塔木素天然碱开发利用项目二期投料试车》 博源化工(6.940, 0.04, 0.58%)（000683）发布公告，控股子公司银根矿业在建的阿拉善塔木素天然碱开发利用项目二期第一条100万吨/年纯碱生产线已于 2025年12月9日投料试车，目前正对装置进行调试、优化和完善。该项目规划总产能为纯碱780万吨/年、小苏打80万吨/年，分为两期建设，一期已全面达产 达标，二期于2023年12月底启动建设。 后续，公司将根据二期项目整体建设进度及第一条生产线的试车情况，逐步对其余生产线进行投料试车。项目投料试车将进一步夯实公司天然碱主业，扩大 业务规模，提升市场占有率。然而，试车阶段部分设备及工艺参数仍需优化，全面达产达标并产生经济效益尚需时间，未来可能面临政策调整、市场变化、 价格波动等风险。 2025年前三季度，博源化工实现收入86.56亿元，归母净利润10.62亿元。 《美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点至3.5%-3.75%》 12月10日，美国联邦储备理事会(FED/美联储)宣布下调联邦基金利率目标区间25个基点至3.5%-3.75%。 美联储预测显示在2026年和2027年 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot indicates only two rate cuts planned for 2025 [3] - International spot gold peaked at $4230 per ounce before retreating to close at $4198 per ounce, with New York gold futures down 0.23% [3] - The main contract for silver in Shanghai closed at 13920 yuan/ton, up 4.06%, marking a three-month high, driven by a 12% increase in silver procurement by photovoltaic component companies [4] Group 2 - The main contract for焦煤 (coking coal) closed at 1132 yuan/ton, down 1.48%, while焦炭 (coke) closed at 1628 yuan/ton, down 0.19% [6] - The main contract for螺纹钢 (rebar) closed at 3175 yuan/ton, up 0.47%, indicating a slight increase in winter storage demand among steel mills [7] - The main contract for iron ore closed at 775 yuan/ton, down 1.09%, with port inventories rising to 138 million tons, a three-month high [8] Group 3 - The main contract for玉米 (corn) reported at 2312 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan (0.61%), reaching a nearly one-year high [11] - The main contract for大豆 (soybeans) fell by 1.32% to 4020 yuan/ton, influenced by higher-than-expected import volumes and weak demand from pig farming [13] - The main contract for红枣 (red dates) rose 1.82% to 9393 yuan/ton, supported by a confirmed 12% reduction in production from major producing areas [13] Group 4 - WTI crude oil fell by 1.07% to $58.25 per barrel, while Brent crude oil dropped by 0.88% to $61.94 per barrel [15] - The main contract for甲醇 (methanol) closed at 2092 yuan/ton, down 0.71%, with domestic operating rates decreasing to 86.5% [15] - The main contract for多晶硅 (polysilicon) closed at 8560 yuan/ton, down 0.35%, with trading rules adjustments leading to reduced speculative activity [17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The cost-side support for asphalt has weakened, and the market's rebound momentum remains insufficient. The asphalt market's downside may be limited, but a bottom rebound requires more stimulating factors, waiting for the release of winter storage demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 9th, the closing price of the main BU2602 asphalt futures contract in the afternoon session was 2,943 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.41% from the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 201,816 lots, up 6,677 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 167,841 lots, down 4,034 lots from the previous day [2] - The spot settlement prices of heavy-traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast, 3,156 - 3,500 yuan/ton; Shandong, 2,860 - 3,370 yuan/ton; South China, 2,930 - 3,150 yuan/ton; East China, 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton [2] - The rebound of crude oil prices has stalled and retraced, weakening the cost-side support for asphalt, and the futures market has been oscillating in a low range. In the spot market, asphalt prices in North China rose slightly, while those in Northwest, Shandong, East China, and South China declined. The overall asphalt fundamentals remain in a weak supply and demand situation, and future terminal demand may decline further with the cooling. The profits of refineries with quotas are relatively attractive, and local supply competition is fierce, suppressing spot prices. As the winter storage demand has not shown signs of large-scale release, market sentiment is cautious, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, wait for the bottom to consolidate; Cross-variety: None; Cross-period: None; Spot-futures: None; Options: None [3]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-09 现货小幅反弹，盘面震荡筑底 市场分析 1、12月8日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价2955元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨10元/吨，涨幅 0.34%；持仓195139手，环比下跌14471手，成交171875手，环比上涨66929手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2860—3470元/吨；华南，29550—3150元/吨； 华东，3100—3300元/吨。 昨日华北、山东以及华南地区沥青现货价格小幅上涨，川渝地区沥青现货价格出现下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格 大体企稳。部分地区终端项目赶工，叠加山东个别厂家沥青合同暂停销售，带动昨日国内沥青均价小幅反弹。当 前沥青基本面维持供需两弱格局，未来随着降温终端需求还有进一步下降的空间，对于具备配额的炼厂利润相对 可观，局部供应竞争较为激烈，压制现货价格。考虑到冬储需求还没有大量释放的迹象，市场情绪谨慎，反弹动 力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行空间或有限，但底部反弹需要更多的刺激因素，等待冬储需求释放。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部夯实 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权： ...

从库存结构来看，上游煤矿与洗煤厂累库明显，下游独立焦化厂则呈现去库态势，钢厂库存小幅波动。 这种库存向上游转移的现象显示出当前市场需求承接能力不足。从现货市场的贸易情况看，煤焦也确实 处于采购情绪偏谨慎的阶段，交易活跃度不高，竞拍流拍率较高。下游企业以消化自身库存为主，刚需 补库成为主流，投机需求受到明显抑制。不过，目前现货层面的利空因素已经逐步兑现。按蒙五原煤计 算的焦煤仓单价格在1150~1180元／吨，现货已经升水焦煤2601合约，期货盘面对现货层面的利空已经 进行计价。进入12月，焦煤市场的利多因素浮现，如神火股份下属煤矿暂时停产等事件，为市场提供了 潜在的反弹契机。市场正处于"估值到位但时间未到"的状态。 展望12月行情，焦煤期货将呈现"短期承压、中期震荡偏强"的格局。短期来看，铁水产量下降、焦炭提 降落地、进口煤持续到港等因素仍将对价格形成压制，焦煤期价仍有压力，但考虑到当前估值偏低、现 货价格底部支撑较强，进一步下跌的空间有限。中期来看，随着中央经济工作会议召开和释放政策信 号，宏观预期有望持续改善。随着焦煤价格持续下跌，补库性价比逐渐显现，下游焦钢企业补库的意愿 也将增强，冬储需求在12月中旬 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 内需支撑，库存去化 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 3 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开高走，日内偏强。期货盘面数日反弹，现货成交继续增量， 随着订单的增多，部分工厂出现停售。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素 出厂报价范围多在 1620-1680 元/吨，河南工厂报价偏低端。气头装置限气减产 拉开序幕，内蒙部分装置已开启检修，后续西南地区本月也将逐渐开始停产减 产，目前日产依然处于 19 万吨-20 吨之间。农需秋季肥扫尾后，储备型农需逢 低拿货为主。复合肥工厂开工负荷逐步抬升，东北地区复合肥工厂开启生产， 已有部分工厂满负荷。工厂处于冬储生产阶段，12 月份将继续高负荷生产，目 前预收订单生产中，后续厂内成品库存将继续增加，冬储提供需求支撑，尿素 价格预计窄幅波动，呈现一定的抗跌性。储备型需求及复合肥开工率增加带来 的需求增量，促使库存进一步去化，预计后续随着气头装置的停产限产，库存 将依然表现为流畅去化。终端交易顺畅，虽日产一直处于同比偏高位置，但库 存维持去化，且本期已降至同比偏低水平。综合来看，基本面及下游积极性尚 可，可支撑盘面进一步走强。 2025 年 12 月 3 日，尿 ...

石油沥青日报 | 2025-11-27 供需两弱格局延续，市场低位震荡 市场分析 1、11月26日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2601合约下午收盘价3043元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌17元/吨，跌幅 0.56%；持仓152279手，环比下跌1513手，成交187910手，环比增加27854手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2960—3470元/吨；华南，3050—3210元/吨； 华东，3200—3400元/吨。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 近期原油价格走势偏弱，沥青成本端支撑不足，但在自身绝对价格跌至低位后，市场底部信号已开始出现。现货 方面，昨日山东地区沥青现货价格继续下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格大体企稳。山东地区沥青现货资源供应较为 充裕，施压沥青现货价格下行。从基本面来看，当前供需两弱格局延续，虽然终端需求逐步步入淡季，但在炼厂 开工率和产量出现明显下滑态势，部分炼厂转产渣油，沥青装置开工率降至绝对低位。不过目前冬储需求还没有 明确释放的迹象，市场情绪相对平淡，反弹动力仍不足。整体来看，沥青市场下行压力已有所缓解，但 ...