期 货 研 究 2025 年 12 月 08 日 铝：重心上移 氧化铝：继续承压 铸造铝合金：上行动力不足 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | 22345 | 285 | 735 | 1050 | 1630 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22165 | ー | ー | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2901 | 13 | 36 | 31 | 277 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 261562 | 15196 | 133906 | 109802 | 163573 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 245335 | 878 | -15335 | -37943 | 42374 | | 电解铝 | | LME铝3M成 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (12.1-12.5) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油继续震荡运行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶60.14美元，周涨2.84%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶 63.86美元，周涨2.47%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至457.1元/桶，周涨0.71%。供应方面，机构调查显示，欧佩克上月原油产量保持稳定， 该组织在全球石油市场疲软之际维持谨慎战略，欧佩克在11月的平均日产量略高于2900万桶，与上月基本持平。地缘局势方面，俄罗斯原 油因不可抗力供应减少的预期利好油价，位于新罗西斯克的里海管道集团公司系泊设施29日遭无人艇袭击，乌克兰消息人 ...

Core Insights - In November, the U.S. private sector experienced a significant job loss of 120,000 positions, marking the largest decline in nearly two and a half years, primarily driven by small businesses [1] - This marks the third instance of job losses in the private sector within four months, indicating a general slowdown in hiring activities [1] - The report from Automatic Data Processing (ADP) highlighted a reduction of 32,000 jobs in the overall market, the largest drop since March 2023 [1] Employment Trends - Small businesses accounted for the loss of 120,000 jobs, attributed to increased costs from import tariffs [1] - In contrast, medium-sized businesses added 51,000 jobs, while large enterprises saw an increase of 39,000 jobs [1] Economic Implications - The ongoing trend of job losses could lead to a rise in the unemployment rate and negatively impact the economy [1] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is expected to address these employment trends, potentially concluding the speculation around interest rate cuts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the official cash rate (OCR) down to 2.25%, in response to rising inflation and a weak labor market [1][3]. Monetary Policy - The RBNZ's decision to lower the OCR is influenced by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reaching 3% in Q3, which is at the upper limit of the official target range of 1%-3% [1]. - The RBNZ expects inflation to decline to around 2% by mid-2026, indicating a long-term outlook on inflation management [1]. - Since August 2024, the RBNZ has cut rates eight times, totaling a reduction of 300 basis points, which is significantly higher than the 150 basis points cut by the Federal Reserve [5]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market remains weak, with a rising unemployment rate that reached 5.3% in Q3, surpassing the 5% threshold for full employment [3]. - The RBNZ's rationale for the rate cut mirrors that of the Federal Reserve, focusing on the challenges within the labor market [3]. Interest Rate Context - The current cash rate of 2.25% is close to the neutral rate estimates of the Federal Reserve (2.5%-3.0%) and the European Central Bank (1.75%-2.25%), suggesting limited room for further significant rate adjustments [5]. - The RBNZ has not explicitly defined its neutral rate range, but the current rate is seen as supportive and stimulative for the economy [5]. Technical Analysis - The NZD/USD currency pair is in a medium-term bearish trend, with significant support levels identified around 0.5500, which has historically been a rebound point [7]. - The current market price of 0.5675 is close to this long-term support level, indicating potential for a significant rebound [7].

Group 1 - Australia's October weighted CPI year-on-year data will be released at 08:30 [1] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce its interest rate decision at 09:00 [1] - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, will present the budget proposal at 20:30 [1] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 22 will be reported at 21:30, along with September durable goods orders month-on-month data [1] - Chicago PMI for November will be released at 22:45 [1] - Annualized new home sales in the US for September will be reported at 23:00 [1] Group 3 - EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending November 21 will be released at 23:30 [1] - EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending November 21 will be reported at 01:00 the next day [1] - Total oil rig count in the US for the week ending November 28 will be released at 02:00 the next day [1] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve will publish the Beige Book on economic conditions at 03:00 the next day [1]

Economic Data Summary - Pending home sales for October increased by 1.9%, significantly surpassing the street's expectation of 0.5% and a previous revision of 0.1% [2][3] - The mortgage rates are trending downwards, and home prices are stabilizing, indicating potential buyer activity in the market [3] - There is a notable increase in home inventory, leading to a rise in cancellations from buyers, suggesting more options available in the market [4] Retail Sales Insights - Retail sales for September showed a month-over-month growth of 0.2%, falling short of the expected 0.4% [6] - The retail control group, a critical component for assessing consumer spending, reported a decline of 0.1% month-over-month, which may lead to downward revisions in GDP forecasts [8] Market Reactions - The S&P 500 is experiencing volatility, with Nvidia's stock dropping about 7% and falling below the key support level of 170 [12][13] - The market is reacting to mixed economic data, with increased expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in December, now estimated at 80% [10] Commodity Market Developments - Oil prices are trading down at around $57.20, influenced by reports of Ukraine potentially agreeing to a revised peace deal [18][19] - The potential easing of sanctions could increase supply in the oil market, impacting Brent oil prices [21] - Natural gas is also experiencing a selloff, attributed to seasonal trends and potential increases in Russian exports to Europe [22][23]

Group 1 - UBS expects weak data this week to increase the probability of a Fed rate cut by year-end, which may put pressure on the dollar [1] - UBS forecasts a 15% rise in global stock markets by 2026, driven by AI and technology, with US GDP growth projected at 1.7% [1] - Barclays suggests that Powell may push for a rate cut next month, with a split among Fed officials on the decision [2] - Barclays anticipates the dollar will strengthen until 2026, supported by significant AI capital expenditure in the US [3] Group 2 - ANZ reports that gold prices have retreated but the fundamentals remain strong, with silver outperforming gold [5] - Bank of America expresses caution regarding Japan's economic stimulus plan, predicting limited impact on GDP growth [4][5] - CICC predicts gold prices could rise to $4,500 per ounce by 2026, driven by cyclical demand [6] - CITIC Securities highlights that global risk assets are overly reliant on AI narratives, suggesting potential volatility [7] - CITIC Securities notes that hydrogen energy is expected to gradually enter the industrialization phase under policy support [8] - CITIC Securities identifies three main lines for consumer goods investment, focusing on the food and beverage sector [9] - CITIC Securities believes that the current market is in a "three-phase overlap," indicating a long-term bullish trend [11] - CITIC Securities sees the establishment of a commercial space agency as a significant step for the satellite industry [13]

Group 1 - The "Department of Government Efficiency" (DOGE), established by Trump and led by Musk, has been quietly disbanded eight months before its contract was set to end [2][3] - The fate of DOGE has been speculated since summer, with reports indicating staff have been relocating and some have taken new positions [3] - Despite claims of cutting hundreds of billions in spending, external financial experts could not verify these figures due to a lack of detailed financial disclosures from the department [4] Group 2 - Musk's mission to eliminate government regulations faced significant criticism during his tenure at DOGE, leading to its premature operational end [3][4] - The disbandment of DOGE reflects the internal resistance to reform within the Trump administration and highlights the challenges in executing policy changes [5] - The recent media reports confirm long-held suspicions about DOGE's exit from the political landscape [5] Group 3 - Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy is facing legal challenges, with several Supreme Court justices questioning its legality [6] - The White House is preparing a backup plan in case the court rules against the tariff policy, exploring options under the Trade Act of 1974 [7] - Trump expressed determination to maintain the tariff policy regardless of the court's decision, indicating a commitment to unilateral trade actions [7] Group 4 - The U.S. economy is experiencing a complex situation with mixed signals regarding growth and interest rates [8] - The recent government shutdown resulted in a permanent economic loss of $11 billion, yet the Treasury Secretary remains optimistic about future growth due to potential interest rate cuts and tax reductions [9] - The Federal Reserve is facing internal divisions regarding interest rate decisions, with the possibility of a deadlock in the upcoming meeting [9]

Market Overview - US stock indices opened significantly lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping below 47,000 points, but later narrowed its losses, while the Nasdaq turned positive [1] - As of the latest update, the Dow was down 0.74%, the Nasdaq up 0.06%, and the S&P 500 down 0.15% [1] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor stocks in the US showed resilience, contributing to a recovery in market sentiment, with SanDisk rising over 7% and Micron Technology up over 6% [2] - Nvidia, a leading global chipmaker, saw its stock price increase by 0.82%, reversing earlier losses [2] Precious Metals - Precious metal prices experienced a sharp decline, with London spot gold dropping over 3% and nearing the $4,000 per ounce mark, while COMEX gold futures fell by 2.88% [4] - Silver prices also fell, with spot silver dropping over 4% at one point, currently reported at $50.832 per ounce, down 2.78% [4] Technology Sector Insights - Wedbush, an investment bank, suggested that the recent sell-off in tech stocks represents a buying opportunity, viewing it as a temporary panic moment [7] - The firm anticipates significant gains in tech stocks for the remainder of the year, driven by investor interest in the AI revolution [7] - UBS highlighted that companies benefiting from AI development constitute about 23% of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, contributing over 42% to earnings growth in 2025 [7] Economic Data Release - The US Department of Commerce is set to release the revised GDP figures for Q3 and PCE data on November 26, which will be crucial for assessing economic growth and inflation trends [8]

Core Insights - Precious metals continue to strengthen, with silver leading the gains at over 3% and gold rising by 2.67% due to favorable market sentiment following the U.S. Senate's approval of a temporary funding bill [2] - The three major oils (rapeseed oil, palm oil, and soybean oil) are experiencing a rebound, supported by declining commercial inventories and tight supply expectations [3] - Double焦 (coke and coking coal) prices have dropped over 3%, influenced by government energy supply meetings and declining steel mill profitability [4] - Multi-crystalline silicon has seen a decline of over 2%, with production expectations decreasing in both silicon and downstream silicon wafer sectors [6] Precious Metals - Silver futures on the domestic market rose by 3.20%, while gold futures increased by 2.67% [2] - The market sentiment is buoyed by liquidity expectations following the U.S. government's funding approval, despite potential bearish fundamentals from economic conditions [2] Oilseeds - The main contracts for rapeseed oil increased by over 2%, while palm oil rose by over 1% [3] - Domestic commercial inventories of the three major oils have decreased by 100,000 tons week-on-week and 150,000 tons month-on-month, indicating tightening supply [3] Double焦 and Multi-crystalline Silicon - Double焦 prices fell over 3%, with the market affected by government directives on energy supply and declining steel production profitability [4] - Multi-crystalline silicon prices dropped over 2%, with production cuts expected in both upstream and downstream sectors, leading to a low-level consolidation phase [6]