一、半夜判决！法院挡刀，特朗普没得逞 急眼了？特朗普突击开除美联储女理事，法院深夜出手：不准！利率大战一夜爆表！ "就赶在美联储议息前一天晚上，特朗普突然开除唯一黑人女理事——结果被法院狠狠打脸！"一场总统与法官之间的权力拉锯战，在利率决议前夜彻底摊 牌。他为什么非要在这个时候动她？难道降息一票，真能撬动美国经济？ 法院讲得很直白：要动美联储理事，得拿出真凭实据——"正当理由"不是你说有就有的！ 华盛顿联邦上诉法院9月15日晚紧急裁定：维持禁令，不准特朗普解雇美联储理事莉萨·库克（Lisa Cook），允许她照常参加本周利率投票。 这事闹得可不是一般大。 8月底，特朗普突然指责库克"房贷欺诈"，说要炒她——可偏偏选在FOMC议息会议前几天动手。库克也不怂，转头就把政府告了，要求法院紧急保护。 结果你也看到了： 地方法院站她，上诉法院也站她。 二、为什么偏是这个时候？为什么偏是她？ 特朗普这时间选得，要说没算计，谁信？ 明明可以早点或晚点，却非要卡在利率决议前夜搞事！ 明眼人都看得出： 库克这几年和主席鲍威尔站同一阵线，不主张急着降息； 如果这关键一票被拔掉，再塞个自己人，特朗普就能在利率话语权上"加戏"，甚至 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. August retail sales month-on-month rate is expected to be 0.3%, down from the previous value of 0.5% [1] - The U.S. August industrial production month-on-month rate is anticipated to be 0%, an improvement from the previous value of -0.1% [2] - The U.S. crude oil inventory change for the week ending September 12 is expected to show an increase from the previous value of 3.939 million barrels [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, lowering the policy rate range to 4%–4.25% [4] - The Bank of Japan is anticipated to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and keep the 10-year government bond yield target unchanged [5]

Group 1: Market and Liquidity - Interest Rates - DRO01 closed at 1.36 with a -0.60 bp change, DR007 at 1.46 with a -2.38 bp change [4] - GC001 closed at 1.37 with a 28.50 bp change, GC007 at 1.46 with a 4.50 bp change [4] - SHBOR 3M closed at 1.55 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change [4] - 1 - year treasury closed at 1.40 with a 0.07 bp change, 5 - year at 1.61 with a -1.32 bp change [4] - 10 - year treasury closed at 1.86 with a -1.01 bp change, 10 - year US treasury at 4.06 with a 5.00 bp change [4] - Last week, the central bank conducted 1.2645 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 1.0684 trillion yuan maturing, resulting in a net injection of 196.1 billion yuan [4] - This week, 1.2645 trillion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 120 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposits will mature on Monday [5] Group 2: Market and Liquidity - Stock Indexes - CSI 300 closed at 4522 with a -0.57% change, IF current month at 4523 with a -0.9% change [6] - SSE 50 closed at 2969 with a -0.49% change, IH current month at 2969 with a -0.7% change [6] - CSI 500 closed at 7148 with a 0.35% change, IC current month at 7140 with a 0.2% change [6] - CSI 1000 closed at 7423 with a 0.31% change, IM current month at 7393 with a 0.1% change [6] - Last week, CSI 300 rose 1.38% to 4522, SSE 50 rose 0.89% to 2968.5, CSI 500 rose 3.38% to 7147.7, and CSI 1000 rose 2.45% to 7422.9 [6] - Last week, in the Shenwan primary industry index, electronics (6.1%), real estate (6%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (4.8%), media (4.3%), and non - ferrous metals (3.8%) led the gains, while only comprehensive (-1.4%), banking (-0.7%), pharmaceutical biology (-0.4%), and social services (-0.3%) declined [6] - Last week's A - share daily trading volumes were 2.2215 trillion yuan, 1.9424 trillion yuan, 1.8096 trillion yuan, 2.1904 trillion yuan, and 2.2681 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume decreasing by 247.39 billion yuan compared to the previous week [6] Group 3: Market and Liquidity - Futures Volume and Open Interest - IF trading volume was 148,623 with a -12.4% change, and open interest was 278,489 with a -1.3% change [6] - IH trading volume was 65,282 with a -8.0% change, and open interest was 100,041 with a -4.2% change [6] - IC trading volume was 175,859 with a -10.2% change, and open interest was 267,758 with a 0.5% change [6] - IM trading volume was 240,836 with a -24.3% change, and open interest was 372,165 with a -4.2% change [6] Group 4: Market and Liquidity - Futures Basis - IF basis for current month was -1.94%, next month was 1.22%, current quarter was 2.10%, and next quarter was 1.90% [8] - IH basis for current month was -0.15%, next month was -0.17%, current quarter was -0.11%, and next quarter was -0.23% [8] - IC basis for current month was 7.91%, next month was 9.06%, current quarter was 8.45%, and next quarter was 8.40% [8] - IM basis for current month was 29.59%, next month was 14.44%, current quarter was 12.77%, and next quarter was 11.82% [8] Group 5: Economic Data and Market Outlook - In August, the new social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 463 billion yuan, and the stock growth rate of social financing dropped to 8.8% [7] - Government bond net financing decreased by 251.9 billion yuan year - on - year, and corporate short - term loans increased by 260 billion yuan year - on - year [7] - Resident short - term loans only increased by 1.05 billion yuan, and M1 year - on - year growth rate rose slightly to 6% [7] - In the coming week, there will be many domestic and international macro events. The Fed will announce its September interest rate decision, and China - US leaders will have talks [7] - Last week, the stock index rose further, with CSI 500 leading the rise in index futures. Market trading volume decreased last week [7] - The strategy is to control risks in index futures positions and mainly adjust for long positions next week [7]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | | 沪镍产业日报 2025-09-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪镍(日,元/吨) | 122580 | 600 10-11月合约价差:沪镍(日,元/吨) | -240 | -60 | | | LME3个月镍(日,美元/吨) | 15380 | 160 主力合约持仓量:沪镍(日,手) | 70610 | -2030 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:沪镍(日,手) | -28268 | 1774 LME镍:库存(日,吨) | 224484 | -600 | | | 上期所库存:镍(周,吨) | 27500 | 514 LME镍:注销仓单:合计(日,吨) | 7974 | -600 | | | 仓单数量:沪镍(日,吨) | 24959 | 1430 | | | | 现货市场 | SMM1#镍现货价(日,元/吨) | 123000 | 150 现货均价:1#镍板:长江有色(日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming "central bank super week," highlighting the anticipated interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, and Bank of England, with a focus on the potential for rate cuts due to economic conditions [3]. Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is expected to hold a monetary policy meeting on September 16-17, with market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25% [5][6]. - Recent data shows a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 0.4% in August, indicating persistent inflation, while weekly jobless claims have increased to 263,000, the highest level in nearly four years [5]. - Analysts predict that the Fed will prioritize labor market weakness over inflation concerns, with expectations of three rate cuts this year, starting in September [6][7]. - The Fed's approach is characterized as gradual, with a focus on assessing the impacts of tariffs and fiscal policies on inflation and labor supply [7]. Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its current interest rate of 0.5% during its meeting on September 19, despite recent trade agreements with the U.S. [8][9]. - Political uncertainty following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba may influence the Bank's future monetary policy decisions [8]. - Market expectations for a rate hike in October have decreased, with a high probability (98%) that the BOJ will keep rates unchanged [9]. Bank of England - The Bank of England's recent decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was contentious, reflecting concerns over medium-term inflation pressures [9][10]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including unemployment rates and CPI, will provide further insights into the UK's economic health and the Bank's policy direction [10]. - The BOE's deputy governor indicated that while current rates may not be at neutral levels, further easing could risk reversing policy direction later [10]. Bank of Canada - The Bank of Canada is anticipated to resume rate cuts on September 17, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point reduction, driven by rising unemployment and GDP contraction [10][11]. - Analysts suggest that the Bank will adopt a cautious approach, potentially cutting rates twice in the coming months due to economic pressures [11].

从技术面来看，自黄金见顶3674回落以来，日线收线没有明确的单边走势，目前阴阳交替收窄，k线保 持在单边均线之上，所以，现在是多头趋势下的震荡表现，本周关注的日线支撑点在3600，3500两个关 键点，跌破3600就可能会出现强弱变化，跌破3500就可能会出现多空趋势变化。今天黄金要回调依然要 关注欧盘时间段黄金能否走弱出现，如果欧盘不出现走弱，黄金今天就不会在出现进一步下跌了，关注 本周重点利率决议后黄金高位多头休整完毕之后，还有希望破位新高的可能性，只是可能性，破位新高 并意味着又要继续上涨了。 换资前言： 金九银十已到，实物金银迎来销售旺季，金银交易市场也将越发热闹。为感谢广大投资朋友的长期关注 与支持，本分析团队开设黄金投资课程供大家交流、体验。本周会免费开放10位体验名额，每天早7点 至凌晨2点实时在线指导，提供投资信息共享、行情分析、现价给单、做单技巧、仓位管理及风险控制 计划！操作不是很理想或是单子被套的朋友可以免费体验，对于想要学习黄金投资产品的朋友也会有较 大帮助，机会难得，欢迎投资朋友们的到来。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一（9月15日）亚市早盘，现货黄 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 15 日 黄金：下修非农就业 白银：突破上行 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | | 沪金2510 | 834.22 | 0.41% | 834.00 | 0.39% | | | 黄金T+D | 830.34 | 0.51% | 830.50 | 0.12% | | | Comex黄金2510 | 3680.70 | 0.20% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 3642.37 | 0.30% | - | - | | | 沪银2510 | 10035 | 2.42% | 10051.00 | 1.22% | | ...

Group 1 - The U.S. and China began discussions in Madrid on September 14, focusing on unilateral tariffs, export controls, and issues related to TikTok [1] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on September 15 to discuss the national economic performance for August [1] - The People's Bank of China reported that in the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan, and the total social financing increased by 26.56 trillion yuan [1] - The Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-dumping investigation into imported simulation chips from the U.S. and initiated an anti-discrimination investigation regarding U.S. measures in the integrated circuit sector [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a work plan for the automotive industry, aiming for annual vehicle sales of approximately 32.3 million units by 2025, with new energy vehicle sales targeted at around 15.5 million units [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point interest rate cut on September 18 [3] Group 4 - Huibo Yuntong announced a share transfer agreement to acquire a total of 32.0875% of Baode Computing for a total transaction price of 1.444 billion yuan [4] - Jushen Co. reported a stock price fluctuation exceeding 20% over three consecutive trading days, with plans to reduce repurchased shares [4] - Dashi Intelligent signed a project contract worth 23.869 million yuan for a smart project with Xiaomi, representing 0.75% of the company's audited revenue for 2024 [5] - Colin Electric plans to raise no more than 1.5 billion yuan through a private placement to supplement working capital [5] - Wanda Information's shareholder Harmony Health Insurance plans to reduce its stake by up to 4.32189 million shares, accounting for 3% of the total share capital [5] - Yongyue Technology's actual controller is under bail pending trial for alleged information disclosure violations, but the company's operations remain normal [5] Group 5 - CITIC Securities highlighted that the current market trend is largely related to overseas expansion, suggesting a focus on resources, new productive forces, and global exposure in investment strategies [6]

全球金融市场即将迎来一个"央行超级周"， 一场密集的利率决策风暴将在约36小时内席卷全球。 从美联储到日本央行，多家主要央行将相继公布利率决议，其政策走向将为全球经济的最后季度定下基调，并直接影响着全球半数交易最活跃的货币。 备受瞩目的焦点是美联储， 市场普遍预期其将宣布自特朗普第二任期以来的首次降息。 在美联储做出决定前， 周二公布的美国零售销售数据将是最后的重要参考。 经济学家预测8月零售额增长0.3%。在劳动力市场不稳和物价上涨的背景下，消费 者的持续消费能力存有疑问。 此外，周四的失业救济申请数据将揭示上周的就业数据跳升是暂时现象还是市场持续恶化的前兆。 长期以来，白宫一直敦促降低借贷成本，而美联储主席鲍威尔则对关税驱动的通胀保持警惕。 然而，近期劳动力市场的疲软迹象，为降息亮起了绿灯，多数经 济学家预计降息幅度为25个基点。 紧随其后，加拿大央行也预计将采取降息行动。而英格兰银行在8月出现罕见的三方意见分歧后，此次可能维持利率不变。周期的尾声将由日本央行画上句 号，该行虽有紧缩倾向，但预计短期内不会采取行动。 这些决策将对占全球经济总量五分之二的经济体产生影响，包括七国集团（G7）中的四个国家。 对 ...

Market Events Overview - The People's Bank of China will have a total of 12,645 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing next week, with specific maturities throughout the week [1] - A total of 47 companies will have lock-up shares released next week, amounting to 3.073 billion shares with a total market value of 79.75 billion yuan based on the closing price on September 12 [2] - Four new stocks are set to be issued next week, with a total of approximately 413 million shares expected to raise 7.645 billion yuan [2] Economic Data Releases - Key economic indicators to be released include China's August retail sales, industrial output, and fixed asset investment data on September 15 [1] - The global payment share of the Chinese yuan in August will be announced on September 18 [2] - Various international economic data will be released throughout the week, including the U.S. retail sales and unemployment rate, as well as the Eurozone inflation data [3][4] Central Bank Decisions - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with market focus shifting to future rate paths and economic forecasts [3][4] - Other central banks, including those of Indonesia, Canada, Brazil, and the UK, will also announce their rate decisions, with varying expectations based on recent inflation data [4] Legislative and Regulatory Developments - New housing rental regulations in China will take effect on September 15, aimed at improving contract management and clarifying responsibilities [5] - The "Rural Road Regulations" will also come into effect on September 15, establishing a comprehensive system for rural road management [5] - The Hong Kong Legislative Council has passed a bill allowing electronic display of driver's licenses, effective September 15 [6]