Market Overview - The A-share market from December 1 to December 5, 2025, showed varied performance with the top three broad indices being Shenzhen Dividend (+0.79%), ChiNext (+0.54%), and Shanghai 50 (+0.28%) while the bottom three were Wind Micro-Pan Index (-1.20%), Sci-Tech 50 (-0.80%), and Sci-Tech Composite Index (-0.75%) [13] - The performance of style indices ranked middle value (+1.65%), mid-growth (+1.49%), and cyclical (+0.93%) at the top, while consumer (-0.97%), small-cap growth (-0.75%), and growth (-0.59%) were at the bottom [15] - Among the Shenwan first-level industry indices, non-ferrous metals (+2.42%), non-bank financials (+2.24%), and machinery (+2.10%) led, while media (-4.67%), beauty care (-2.41%), and computers (-2.35%) lagged [18] Market Outlook - The macro timing model for December 2025 scored -2, indicating a historical probability of adjustment for the Wind All A Index, but any potential adjustment space is expected to be limited [24] - The market is anticipated to continue a bottoming phase with weak rebounds, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and communications sectors, but trading volume is decreasing, indicating weak buying and selling intentions [24] - Caution is advised for micro-pan directions as historical data shows weak performance in December, and recent high-level stocks have shown unusual movements [24] Fund Allocation Recommendations - A balanced and slightly aggressive ETF allocation is recommended based on the current market conditions [64] - The report suggests that the market may remain in a range-bound oscillation, necessitating patience for a larger-scale rebound [62] Risk Warnings - The model is based on historical data, which may become ineffective in the future [68] - There is a risk of macroeconomic performance falling short of expectations [68] - Unexpected macro events could significantly impact market conditions [68]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean oil futures market continued its narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract slightly closing higher and a significant decrease in open interest. The market is currently influenced by both long and short factors. The firm spot price and high positive basis support the futures price, while the medium - to - high domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil restricts the upward price movement. It is expected that the soybean oil price will continue to oscillate within a range in the short term. Key factors to watch include the domestic inventory reduction pace, weather changes in South American soybean - producing areas, and external variables such as biodiesel policies at the macro - level [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On December 3, 2025, the soybean oil futures market showed an oscillating and consolidating trend. The main contract y2601 closed at 8,286 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 161,570 lots, and the open interest was 301,309 lots, with a decrease of 17,961 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The total trading volume of soybean oil contracts was 300,450 lots, and the total open interest was 823,989 lots, an increase of 9,061 lots compared to the previous day [4]. - **Related Market**: The daily trading volume of soybean oil options was 19,261 lots, the open interest was 90,263 lots, with a decrease of 838 lots, and the exercise volume was 0 lots [7]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang on the day was 8,550 yuan/ton. The settlement price of the main contract v2601 was 8,278 yuan/ton, and the basis was 272 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - On December 2, commodity funds net - sold 3,000 lots of CBOT soybean futures contracts, net - bought 15,500 lots of corn futures contracts, net - bought 3,500 lots of wheat futures contracts, net - sold 4,000 lots of soybean meal futures contracts, and net - bought 3,000 lots of soybean oil futures contracts [9].

Core Viewpoint - The current gold price movement is characterized as a consolidation phase rather than a peak, with a significant breakthrough expected in March 2024 [2][3]. Group 1: Current Gold Price Trends - As of December 4, 2023, spot gold is trading around $4,196.77 per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.23% [1]. - Gold reached a high of $4,210.00 per ounce and a low of $4,194.23 per ounce during the trading session, indicating a short-term sideways movement [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis and Predictions - The recent price action of gold resembles a breakout trend for 2023 and 2024, rather than the bull markets seen in 1980 and 2011 [2]. - After breaking the strong resistance level of $2,000 per ounce in December 2023, gold quickly surged to $2,100 but faced significant selling pressure shortly after [2]. - Experts initially misinterpreted the price movements as a double top pattern, but it was actually a period of consolidation and range trading [2]. Group 3: Economic Indicators Impacting Gold Prices - The latest jobless claims data from the U.S. Labor Department shows a decrease to 191,000, down from 218,000, which supports the resilience of the U.S. labor market [3]. - This positive labor market data has led to rising yields, which in turn limits the upward movement of gold prices, keeping them in a consolidation phase [3]. - The market is currently awaiting PCE data and Federal Reserve decisions, with expectations of maintaining slight fluctuations until a breakout occurs [3].

Market Overview - The market experienced a slight decline with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.06%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.4%, and ChiNext Index up by 1.01% [6] - Total trading volume across both markets was 1.55 trillion yuan, a decrease of 121 billion yuan compared to the previous day [6] Fund Performance - The three major ETFs from Huabao, tracking the CSI A50, CSI A100, and CSI A500 indices, provided investors with diversified options for bullish positions on China [2][6] - The CSI A100 ETF fund was launched on August 1, 2022, while the CSI A500 ETF from Huabao was launched on December 2, 2024 [2] Institutional Insights - Everbright Securities noted that despite market adjustments, there is no panic, and the current fluctuations are considered normal, with potential for a rebound if favorable news emerges from upcoming significant meetings [2][6] - Wanhe Securities suggested that the market rebound may continue, particularly in the consumer and technology sectors, focusing on integrated circuits and commercial aerospace [2][6] - According to招商证券, the market is likely to break upward after three months of consolidation, indicating a high probability of a year-end rally [2][6] Sector Capital Inflows - The top three sectors for net capital inflows were household appliances (+2.784 billion yuan), machinery (+2.456 billion yuan), and automobiles [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view for the stock index futures is that they will be in a range - bound oscillation. The policy利好预期 continues to ferment, but the willingness of funds to take profits is rising. In the short term, the market is waiting for policy guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference and lacks a clear main line. However, in the long run, the positive policy expectations and the trend of long - term funds entering the market remain unchanged, providing strong support for the stock index [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, the intraday view is bullish, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the conflict between the fermentation of policy利好预期 and the rising willingness of funds to take profits [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillation, with a reference view of range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and slightly回调 yesterday. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 168.36 billion yuan, an increase of 7.63 billion yuan from the previous day. Currently, the trading atmosphere in the stock market has cooled down, the margin trading amount and margin balance have declined, and the willingness of funds to take profits has risen. The stock index is in a stage of oscillation and consolidation. The policy side has strong expectations for stabilizing macro - demand and supporting technological innovation, which provides strong support for the stock index. However, in the short term, the market is waiting for policy guidance from the Central Economic Work Conference and lacks a main line. In general, the stock index will mainly oscillate in the short term [5].

【中国经济观测点】是由新华财经国家金融信息平台打造，从微观数据见微知著，为市场提供更加具有"颗粒度"的经济观 测和经济画像。本期发布的是2025年11月钢铁市场的产销数据及后市趋势。 11月钢材消费量环比小幅回落 12月钢材终端需求或继续转弱 回顾11月份，国内钢材市场呈现先跌后涨的运行态势。从钢材产量来看，建筑钢材产量快速下降，热轧板卷产量稳中有 升，一定程度上减轻了供给压力，需求端虽受淡季影响但仍显韧性，库存表现持续去化。原料方面，铁矿石尽管基本面边 际转弱，但受到供需结构性矛盾影响，价格表现坚挺。同时，焦煤供应预期从紧张转向宽松，导致价格向下调整。在原料 价格波动加剧且分化的背景下，钢材价格涨跌两难。 对于12月份钢材市场，一方面，受利润收缩及环保政策约束，钢厂产量或延续小幅回落；另一方面，需求端虽面临季节性 走弱，但出口仍对整体需求形成支撑。原料方面，钢厂减产预期虽令成本支撑有所弱化，但冬储需求的存在将限制下行空 间。宏观方面，国内重要会议临近叠加海外降息预期升温，市场情绪偏暖。整体来看，钢价下方有成本支撑，上方受需求 季节性压制，整体或维持区间震荡走势。 高炉钢厂开工率小幅下降电炉开工率先降后升 从 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 11 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2512 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 区间震荡 | 短期内资金了结意愿上升 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均冲高回落，全天震荡整理。沪深京三市全天成交额 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market is currently experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, with recent movements showing a slight rebound after a dip, indicating a lack of strong directional trends [1][2] - On Thursday, gold reached a high of 4107 but fell back to 4045, suggesting a significant trading range between 4040 and 4150, with traders advised to consider short positions at the upper end and long positions at the lower end [2][3] - The technical analysis indicates that both daily and H4 charts are showing clear signs of range-bound trading, with key support at 4040 and resistance at 4130 [2][3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - The international silver market has also entered a period of volatility, with prices fluctuating between 52.5 and 49.5, suggesting a similar range-bound trading strategy [3] - Domestic silver (沪银) has seen a recent drop, with current support at 11500, and traders are encouraged to maintain long positions as long as this support holds [3] - The short-term outlook for silver suggests potential upward movement if it can rebound from current levels, with resistance points identified at 12000 and 12300 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The international oil market has not shown significant upward movement, currently trading around 58, with previous recommendations to hold long positions at this support level [4] - Domestic fuel oil has experienced a slight decline but remains stable, with traders advised to monitor for signs of a bottom formation before considering further positions [4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term market game has intensified, and the stock index will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. In the medium - term, it is strong. Although the stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between policy expectation and profit - taking, in the long run, the policy expectation and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the stock index [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the game between the willingness of funds to take profits and the expectation of policy benefits [1]. b) Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and slightly pulled back. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1722.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. In November, the incremental policy signals weakened, and the willingness of profitable funds to take profits increased, so the stock index entered a technical consolidation stage. However, in the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflow trends support the stock index [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the latest fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, and briefly mentions macro - related news. It shows that aluminum is affected by macro - disturbances, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,530 yuan, down 40 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 169,843 lots and an open interest of 338,582 lots. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,815 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day. The LME cancellation warrant ratio was 10.89%, up 0.77% from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,732 yuan, down 8 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 266,933 lots and an open interest of 411,305 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,780 yuan, down 35 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 4,864 lots and an open interest of 12,349 lots [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic average price of aluminum ingots was 21,530 yuan, and the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, down 24,000 tons from the previous day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 544,100 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 2,861 yuan, and the alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 345 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Related Products**: The pre - baked anode market price was 5,887 yuan, the Foshan aluminum rod processing fee was 360 yuan, and the Shandong 1A60 aluminum rod processing fee was 50 yuan [1]. 3.3 Macro News - As of the week ending November 15th, the number of initial unemployment claims decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, lower than the expected 227,000. However, the number of continued unemployment claims slightly rose to 1,974,000, higher than the expected 1,950,000, reaching the highest level since October 2021 [3]. - There is a new divergence between hawks and doves within the Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Hammack strongly opposes further interest rate cuts, warning that inflation is difficult to control and monetary policy needs to be tightened [3].