国泰君安期货·能源化工 石油沥青周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 期货从业资格号：F3082452 日期：2025年5月11日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 沥青市场综述 ◆ 风险提示：关税谈判推进、炼厂超预期复产复工等 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 价格&价差 02 基本面数据 03 市场回顾 期现 价差结构 需求 供应 ◆ 我们的观点：区间震荡，估值高位 ◆ 我们的逻辑：节后BU低开后持续反弹，裂解高位运行。现货方面，北方高价资源部分回落，南方低价船货小幅抬升，南 北价差略微收窄。具体来看，国内沥青总产量为49万吨，环比上周增幅1.9%；分地区来看，东北、西北及西南地区部 分中石油炼厂增产沥青，且山东地炼多有提产复产，从而带动整体供应增加。需求方面，北方高速项 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to trigger a new market trend for gold, which has been in a consolidation phase [1] - The gold market is currently experiencing a tight trading range, with significant fluctuations expected as the market prepares for a breakout [1][4] - The current support level for gold is at $3260, while resistance is seen at $3380, indicating a potential for significant price movement [4] Group 2 - Recent trading activity shows gold prices fluctuating between $3300 and $3330, with a critical support range identified between $3285 and $3275 [2] - The technical analysis indicates a downward trend with high points decreasing and low points remaining stable, suggesting a potential continuation of the current adjustment phase [4] - Traders are advised to avoid entering positions in the middle of the current trading range to minimize losses from stop-loss triggers [2]

中原证券认为，周二A股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低开后震荡上行，盘中沪指在3294点 附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震荡，盘中汽车零部件、机器人、互联网服务以及通用设备等行业表现较 好；电力、保险、航运港口以及贵金属等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现小幅震荡整理的运行特征。 4月是年报和一季报密集披露期，市场将从预期驱动转向基本面验证。预计短期市场仍以区间震荡为 主，但政策托底与经济韧性为结构性机会提供支撑。市场或延续政策与业绩双轮驱动的结构性行情，投 资者需平衡防御与成长，聚焦业绩确定性高、政策催化明确的板块，同时警惕外部风险引发的短期波 动。 东莞证券认为，周二，市场全天震荡调整，三大指数缩量微跌。海外方面，本周美国将公布3月核心 PCE和4月非农就业等重要经济数据，或将一定程度上影响美国经济预期走势及贸易谈判进程。国内方 面，五一假期将近，节前资金避险情绪有所提升，部分资金选择在短期获利离场，市场继续缩量。随着 本周财报披露季结束，叠加海外冲击逐渐减弱，A股市场将进入一个相对均衡的阶段。但另一方面，指 数目前处于相对纠结的位置，指数上方有压力，同时估值不存在超跌情况，短期缺乏热点催化，市场或 将继续 ...

【市场资讯】 4月23日，无锡鼎利凯钢业有限公司304，1.0四八尺，公差0.9平板价格报13300元/吨，较上一交易日持 平；304，2.0四尺卷价格报13600元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 （4月23日）今日全国不锈钢板价格一览表 | 规格 | 品牌/ | 报价 | 报价 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 产地 | | 类型 | | | | 材质:304/2B ;规格:2.0*1219*C ;品种:冷轧不锈 | 宏旺 | 13150 | 市场 | 江苏省/无 | 江苏屿鑫金属科技有 | | 钢卷板； | | 元/吨 | 价 | 锡市 | 限公司 | | 材质:304/2B;规格:1.0*1219*2438;公差:0.91;品 | 国产 | 12050 | 市场 | 江苏省 | 江苏鑫万佳不锈钢有 | | 种:冷轧不锈钢平板; | | 元/吨 | 价 | | 限公司 | | 材质:304/2B ;规格:2.0*1219*C ;品种:冷轧不锈 | 国产 | 13120 | 市场 | 江苏省 | 江苏鑫万佳不锈钢有 | | 钢卷板； | ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The lead market is expected to experience range - bound fluctuations [1] Group 2: Core Data Price and Volume - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 16,655 yuan/ton, down 1.01% from the previous day; the closing price of the LME 3M lead electronic disk was 1,902 dollars/ton, down 0.47% [1] - The trading volume of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 19,726 lots, an increase of 2,459 lots; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,146 lots, an increase of 213 lots [1] - The open interest of the main Shanghai lead futures contract was 30,993 lots, a decrease of 1,084 lots; the open interest of LME lead was 151,498 lots, a decrease of 5,095 lots [1] Premium and Discount - The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 19.94 dollars/ton, an increase of 1.97 dollars/ton [1] - The PB00 - PB01 spread was 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1] Inventory - The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 57,977 tons, a decrease of 401 tons; the LME lead inventory was 283,125 tons, an increase of 17,575 tons [1] - The LME lead cancelled warrants were 122,950 tons, a decrease of 1,850 tons [1] Others - The price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,175 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - The price of recycled refined lead was 16,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was - 435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton [1] - The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was - 427.32 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.88 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - month contract was - 468.27 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.87 yuan/ton [1] Group 3: News - China's GDP in the first quarter increased by 5.4% year - on - year [1] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1]