Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2) Report's Core View - The short - term market game has intensified, and the stock index will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. In the medium - term, it is strong. Although the stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between policy expectation and profit - taking, in the long run, the policy expectation and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market strongly support the stock index [5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is bullish, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is the game between the willingness of funds to take profits and the expectation of policy benefits [1]. b) Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. Yesterday, each stock index oscillated and slightly pulled back. The total trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1722.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20 billion yuan from the previous day. The stock index is in a short - term oscillation period due to the game between the fermentation rhythm of policy benefit expectations and the profit - taking rhythm of profitable funds. In November, the incremental policy signals weakened, and the willingness of profitable funds to take profits increased, so the stock index entered a technical consolidation stage. However, in the long - term, policy expectations and capital inflow trends support the stock index [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the latest fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, and briefly mentions macro - related news. It shows that aluminum is affected by macro - disturbances, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,530 yuan, down 40 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 169,843 lots and an open interest of 338,582 lots. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,815 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day. The LME cancellation warrant ratio was 10.89%, up 0.77% from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,732 yuan, down 8 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 266,933 lots and an open interest of 411,305 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,780 yuan, down 35 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 4,864 lots and an open interest of 12,349 lots [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic average price of aluminum ingots was 21,530 yuan, and the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, down 24,000 tons from the previous day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 544,100 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 2,861 yuan, and the alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 345 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Related Products**: The pre - baked anode market price was 5,887 yuan, the Foshan aluminum rod processing fee was 360 yuan, and the Shandong 1A60 aluminum rod processing fee was 50 yuan [1]. 3.3 Macro News - As of the week ending November 15th, the number of initial unemployment claims decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, lower than the expected 227,000. However, the number of continued unemployment claims slightly rose to 1,974,000, higher than the expected 1,950,000, reaching the highest level since October 2021 [3]. - There is a new divergence between hawks and doves within the Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Hammack strongly opposes further interest rate cuts, warning that inflation is difficult to control and monetary policy needs to be tightened [3].

中信建投研报指出，展望2026年，我们认为转债资产在权益资产催化与高强赎概率制约下，整体上可能 依然呈现较为显著的区间震荡特征。一方面，在权益资产预期回报率提升与转债自身稀缺性影响下，转 债资产出现大幅回撤难度较大；而另一方面，受制于转债资产整体不断提升的强赎概率以及不断缩短的 平均剩余期限，转债资产的时间价值可能进一步衰减，市场亦难以对其定价更高的估值。因此建议关注 转债估值与价格中枢的波动，灵活调整转债的配置力度，获取交易型收益。对于新发转债，除在一级市 场积极申购外，在转债上市初期依然可以持续关注，具备统计套利机会。 ...

Group 1 - The current gold market is influenced by two main factors: the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and geopolitical changes affecting safe-haven demand [2][3] - Gold has entered a consolidation phase after a significant drop, with a trading range established between 4000 and 4150. A breakout from this range will determine the market's direction [3][4] - The domestic gold market has shown low volatility, with support levels at 930 and 925, and resistance at 955 and 950. The market is expected to remain in a low volatility phase unless these key levels are breached [4][5] Group 2 - Silver is experiencing a similar consolidation pattern, with key resistance at 50 and support at 47.5. A sustained move above 50 could signal a continuation of the bullish trend [4][5] - The domestic silver market has shown a bullish trend after a drop to 11300, with a focus on maintaining support at this level. A breakout above 11700 could lead to further gains [5] - The oil market has seen fluctuations, with a recent rise from 56 to 63. The market is currently observing whether it can maintain above 63 to confirm a bullish trend [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is mainly in a range - bound oscillation. The US government shutdown is nearing an end, reducing market uncertainties. Fundamentally, there is high resistance to high copper prices in the domestic market, but the opening of the domestic copper export window eases the inventory accumulation pressure. It is the peak consumption season in October, and the fundamentals provide support. Copper mine accidents limit price declines. Although the previous trading session has broken through the long - term oscillation range and the market tends to be strong, the upward momentum is insufficient as demand support weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak intraday oscillation. The supply - side disturbances in copper mines limit the decline of copper prices. The positive support from the previous copper mine accident in Indonesia to the market has not disappeared. The port inventory of copper concentrates has decreased this week, and the current inventory is significantly lower than that of last year. Smelter overhauls are still ongoing, resulting in low output levels. Currently, long - term contracts are in the preliminary discussion stage, and copper mine traders hold relatively few supplies. Although it is the peak season in October, the high copper prices driven by macro - stimulation are difficult to be accepted by downstream users, leading to a weak market trading atmosphere. After the recent price decline, the demand may improve month - on - month. The stable development of the domestic power grid and new energy sectors provides rigid support for demand, and the global industrial demand outlook is optimistic during the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, showing a weak intraday oscillation [1][4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 25 yuan/ton, and in South China is 65 yuan/ton. On October 21, 2025, the LME official price was 10,635 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 23 US dollars/ton [4]. 3.3. Supply Side - As of the latest data on October 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 40.8 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.08 US cents/pound [8]. 3.4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 36,600 tons, a decrease of 7,978 tons from the previous period. As of October 20, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 108,700 tons, an increase of 8,700 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 136,900 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 345,900 short tons, a decrease of 692 short tons from the previous period [11].

Market Overview - As of September 22, 2025, the inventory of coniferous logs at Chinese ports is 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 100,000 cubic meters week-on-week, indicating a shift towards inventory reduction [1] - The actual arrival volume last week was 235,600 cubic meters, down by 234,400 cubic meters, with New Zealand accounting for 210,000 cubic meters of this volume, a decrease of 209,000 cubic meters; the expected arrival volume from New Zealand is projected to increase to approximately 336,000 cubic meters this week [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily outflow of coniferous logs from 13 ports across 7 provinces in China is 63,300 cubic meters, a slight decrease of 90 cubic meters from the previous week [1] - The current market for raw wood is stable, with no significant contradictions in supply and demand; however, there is a weak reality against strong expectations, leading to weaker spot transactions [2] Price Trends - As of September 24, the spot market prices for raw wood remain unchanged, with Shandong's 3.9-meter medium A radiata pine priced at 750 yuan per cubic meter and Jiangsu's 4-meter medium A radiata pine at 770 yuan per cubic meter [2] - The overall price trend in the spot market is stable, with expectations of increased arrivals and tightening supply; however, there is currently no clear upward momentum in prices, leading to an anticipated range-bound fluctuation in raw wood prices [3]

Group 1 - The total trading volume of the two markets reached 2.44 trillion yuan, an increase of 372.9 billion yuan compared to the previous day [2] - The net inflow of funds into the top three industries (according to Shenwan's first-level classification) includes: Banking (2.023 billion yuan), Power Equipment (4.519 billion yuan), and Automotive (3.400 billion yuan) [2] - The market is expected to maintain a range-bound fluctuation between 3700 and 3900 points in the short term, driven by profit-taking ahead of the holiday [2] Group 2 - The A50 ETF by Huabao focuses on the top 50 core leading companies, providing investors with a diversified option to invest in China [2] - The MACD golden cross signal has formed, indicating a positive trend for certain stocks [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong during the peak season, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - Supported by policies and the release of peak - season demand, the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1%, hitting a new high [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts of lithium carbonate increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the 2511 contract closed at 73,960, up 1,080 from T - 1; the 2601 contract closed at 74,040, up 1,100 from T - 1. The trading volumes and open interests of the two contracts also changed, with the trading volume of the 2511 contract at 370,359, down 131,910 from T - 1, and the open interest at 281,264, down 147 from T - 1 [1]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot - 2511 was - 460, and the spot - 2601 was - 540. The basis between 2511 - 2601 was - 80. The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon - industrial carbon) was 2,250 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859, up 1 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,880, up 65 from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500, up 50 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,534 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - According to the latest research data of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the retail targets of leading manufacturers accounting for nearly 80% of the total market sales are generally high this month. The retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply is diversified during the new sugar - cane crushing season transition period. The competition between processed sugar and domestic sugar intensifies. The market is expected to maintain range - bound trading. It's necessary to be vigilant about the risks of declining import costs and unmet demand expectations. If Brazil's sugar production exceeds expectations or India relaxes sugar exports, raw sugar prices may test previous lows [3][4]. 3) Summary by Related Content Domestic Sugar Price and Futures Data - On September 17, 2025, the spot sugar prices varied by region: 5970 yuan/ton in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi; 5860 yuan/ton in Kunming, Yunnan (down 5 yuan); 5715 yuan/ton in Dali, Yunnan; 6000 yuan/ton in Rizhao, Shandong. SR09 futures price was 5519 yuan (down 11 yuan), and SR01 was 5529 yuan (down 18 yuan). The spread between SR09 - 01 was - 10 (up 7) [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1276 (down 0.0093), the exchange rate of the Brazilian real against the RMB was 1.2818 (up 0.0212), and the exchange rate of the Indian rupee against the RMB was 0.084 (down 0.0004). The ICE raw sugar main contract price was 15.88 (unchanged), the London white sugar main contract price was 573 (up 3), and the Brent crude oil main contract price was 68.49 (unchanged) [4].

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