长期以来，黄金价格被认为能够对抗通货膨胀。Erb与Havey（2013）的研究发现，历史上黄金价格与美国定基CPI指数的比率平均为3.2倍，这个比值可以视 为反映黄金购买力波动均值的黄金常数，且黄金价格在10年左右的时间维度内呈现均值回归的趋势。 不过如图1所示，随着2022年之后黄金价格不断创出历史新高，黄金价格与美国定基CPI指数比率的均值不断抬升，目前接近6倍左右。值得注意的是，自 2010年以来至今，黄金价格与美国定基CPI指数的比率大致已经连续15年高于历史均值，且当前黄金价格与美国定基CPI指数与均值的偏离程度，已经与 1980年初的上一次历史高位相仿。换言之，从黄金价格对抗通货膨胀的视角以及均值回归的视角来看，黄金价格回落调整的概率随着时间的推移将会不断上 升。 不排除全球黄金价格在2026年上半年出现显著调整（例如下跌10%~20%）的可能性。 2024年12月30日至2025年12月10日，英国LBMA黄金价格由每盎司2609.10美元上涨至每盎司4200.15美元，涨幅高达61%，可谓2025年全球表现最好的大类 资产。不过，黄金价格在2025年10月20日触及每盎司4294.35美元的历 ...

投资的科学面：均值回归是绕不开的铁律 哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇评论，主要来分析投资的运气骗局，拆解背后不为人知的硬核逻辑。 不少人觉得投资全靠运气，有人靠一只股票翻倍，有人却栽得血本无归。但往深了挖才发现，那些看似 幸运的成功，背后都藏着一套严密的逻辑。 经济学的"理性人"假设虽不完美，却揭示了投资的底层规律。投资从来不是瞎蒙，它既有科学的必然， 也有艺术的弹性，看懂这一点，才能避开大多数坑。 投资的科学成分，核心就是均值回归的必然性，说白了就是涨久必跌，跌久必涨。这不是随口说说的玄 学，而是经过市场长期验证的规律。 就像去年火遍全网的某新能源龙头股，2023年一路飙升翻了三倍，不少人追高入场，觉得会一直涨。结 果2024年上半年直接腰斩，套牢了大批散户。 证券日报11月底报道过一则案例，某基金经理坚持均值回归逻辑，在这只股估值高位时果断减仓，转而 布局低估的消费板块。虽然短期业绩不如同行，但到了2024年下半年，消费板块回暖，他的基金业绩直 接冲进同类前10%。 还有A股市场的白酒板块，过去十几年里经历过多次涨跌循环，每次下跌后总会有反弹，每次暴涨后也 难免回调。这就是均值回归的力量，不管市场情绪多狂热或 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the inadequacy of using moving averages to measure market sentiment, arguing that it reflects rationality rather than true emotional responses [1] - The article introduces a new method for measuring market sentiment through the TR value, which captures the maximum daily price movement, suggesting that the frequency of breakthroughs in maximum tension is a more accurate measure of sentiment [1] - The sentiment curve derived from TR calculations includes three lines representing 10-day, 20-day, and 40-day sentiment values, with specific thresholds indicating "emotional boiling" and "emotional freezing" regions [1] Group 2 - Key insights include that extreme sentiment values often lead to price reversals [3] - The synchronization of extreme values across the three sentiment lines indicates a significant potential for price reversals [3] - Discrepancies between large sentiment peaks and small sentiment movements suggest lower reliability in predicting market behavior [3] - A significant divergence between sentiment peaks and price peaks indicates a potential turning point in the market [3]

进入12月，两市开启震荡趋势，高股息上周随市回调。数据显示，截至12月12日，中证红利全收益指数相对万得全A指数40日收益差 为-5.28%，或意味中证红利当前跑输Wind全A比较多，可以更多关注阶段性布局时机。 从资金面上看，资金年末增仓高股息迹象较为显著。截至12月12日，中证红利指数挂钩ETF获资金净流入6.24亿元，近一月该数据为18.51亿 元。中证红利ETF（515080）成为其中的吸金主力军，数据显示，截至12月15日，该ETF近5日净流入额为3.12亿元，近20日这一净申购额升至 8.8亿元。 分红层面，近期上市公司密集中期分红，或也成为资金关注高股息的原因之一。根据Wind数据，截至12月15日，中证红利指数成份股中有39 家公司完成中期派息，合计派息3467亿元。其中工商银行、建设银行、农业银行、中国石油等派息总额超400亿元。 兴业证券观点认为，岁末年初，或可掘金红利资产投资机遇。年末机构仓位调整，"高低切"助力红利行情；此外，红利风格存在"月历效应"： 2015年以来，中证红利全收益指数在4月、5月、11月胜率分别高达91%、73%以及82%，同时，在1月、12月以及7月份胜率也超过5 ...

文 | 王嫱 4个月前，笔者写了篇《00后星二代集中出道，谁最有明星相？》，谁知，现在星三代也开始连续出道了。他们有的抽中了"基因彩票"，有的靠努力证明 了自己。但不少在颜值上属于"均值回归"，个别还因业务能力不够被质疑娱乐圈"世袭"…… 1 韩子萱（2014年生）： 外公濮存昕 大家一致觉得这个星三代颜值很一般，甚至有点像任素汐。 12月9日晚，韩子萱发文：在妈妈的手机上看到我自己在《掌上齐眉》的画面了哈哈，这是我第一次在横店体验拍电视剧，也看到制作一部作品需要那么 多人的辛勤付出才能做成。谢谢叔叔阿姨们对我的照顾。 近日，著名演员濮存昕因连发微博支持11岁外孙女韩子萱的短剧首秀引发热议。 其实，1953年生的濮存昕本人也算星二代，他父亲苏民（革命时期的化名，原名濮思洵）是人艺老院长。 濮存昕和父母 濮存昕的太太宛萍是一名舞蹈演员，两人只有一个独生女濮方（1986年生），16岁就出国读书，在国外十几年后回国开了文化公司。濮方虽然没出道，但 也在文化圈混。 濮方和父母 后来，濮方嫁给了圈外人士、滑雪教练韩金凯。 至于外孙女韩子萱长相不如外公外婆爸爸妈妈，一方面可能是均值回归（后代颜值向人群平均水平靠拢的趋势） ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant "technical storm" driven by index rules is anticipated, primarily affecting the strong-performing gold and silver markets [2] Group 1: Technical Adjustments and Market Impact - The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is set for annual weight rebalancing in January 2026, which is expected to exert substantial selling pressure on gold and silver futures [3][4] - Gold and silver have outperformed other commodities over the past three years, leading to an elevated weight in the BCOM index, necessitating passive funds to sell positions during the rebalancing [5] - The report predicts a staggering sell-off scale, with silver facing the heaviest pressure, estimated at about 9% of its total open contracts, while gold is expected to see a sell-off of approximately 3% [6][7] Group 2: Seasonal Trends vs. Technical Selling - January will present a battleground of bullish seasonal trends against bearish technical selling for gold investors [9] - Historically, gold prices have averaged a 4.6% increase during the last ten trading days of the year to the first twenty trading days of the next year, with an 80% probability of rising [10] - The anticipated technical selling pressure from index rebalancing may counteract the traditional seasonal bullish trend, particularly for silver, which faces greater selling pressure this year [12] Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Effects - The rebalancing will impact various commodities beyond precious metals, creating complex long and short dynamics across different indices [13] - Cocoa is expected to be the biggest winner, with anticipated buying pressure equivalent to 22% of its total open contracts due to its re-inclusion in the BCOM index [14] - The energy market will see minimal overall impact, but natural gas may experience selling pressure of about 3% of its total open contracts [15] - Industrial metals will see mild buying pressure, particularly lead, which is projected to receive about 3% of its total open contracts [16] Group 4: Market Volatility and Key Observations - The rebalancing involves not only BCOM but also the S&P GSCI index, with overlapping adjustment windows from January 8 to 15, 2026 [18] - The total assets tracking BCOM exceed $60 billion, indicating that such a large-scale adjustment will amplify market volatility [19] - Notable discrepancies in adjustment directions between BCOM and S&P GSCI could trigger cross-index arbitrage activities and unusual market fluctuations, making the second week of January 2026 a critical observation period for investors [19]

Core Viewpoint - A significant "technical storm" driven by index rules is anticipated, primarily affecting gold and silver due to an upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) in January 2026, which is expected to exert substantial selling pressure on these precious metals [1][2]. Group 1: Technical Selling Pressure - The core driver of the anticipated selling pressure is the mean reversion effect, as gold and silver have outperformed other commodities over the past three years, leading to an inflated weight in the BCOM index [2]. - The forced selling operations are projected to occur between January 8 and 14, 2026, coinciding with the BCOM index roll period, potentially resulting in concentrated capital outflows from the market [2]. Group 2: Seasonal Factors vs. Technical Selling - January will present a battleground of bullish and bearish factors for gold investors, with historical data indicating an average price increase of 4.6% during the last ten trading days of the year and the first twenty trading days of the new year, with an 80% probability of price increases [3]. - However, the significant technical selling pressure from the index rebalancing may counteract this seasonal bullish trend, particularly with silver facing greater selling pressure than in previous years [3]. Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Impacts - The rebalancing will not only impact precious metals but will also create complex long and short dynamics across other commodities, as different indices will adjust their weights differently [4]. - The oil market outlook is cautious, with expectations of a growing oversupply in 2026 and 2027, which may exert downward pressure on oil prices [4]. Group 4: Specific Commodity Predictions - Silver is expected to face the heaviest selling pressure, with the anticipated sell-off amounting to approximately 9% of its total open interest in the futures market [5]. - Gold's projected selling pressure is estimated at about 3% of its total open interest, which, despite being lower than silver's, still represents a significant absolute value due to gold's large market size [5]. - Cocoa is predicted to be the biggest winner from the rebalancing, with expected buying pressure equivalent to 22% of its total open interest, significantly surpassing other agricultural products [6]. Group 5: Market Volatility and Key Observations - The rebalancing will also involve the S&P GSCI index, with both indices adjusting during the same period, which could amplify market volatility due to the large asset scale tracking BCOM exceeding $60 billion [8]. - Notably, there are significant directional discrepancies between the two indices, such as cocoa being a large buy in BCOM while facing substantial sell pressure in S&P GSCI, potentially leading to cross-index arbitrage activities and unusual market fluctuations [8].

Market Overview - The overall market was relatively sluggish, but the North Exchange 50 index surged, rising over 6% during the afternoon session, making it the only index in the A-share market to show gains [1][14]. - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 1,324.2 billion, with 1,154 stocks rising, 73 remaining flat, and 4,226 declining [2][15]. North Exchange 50 Performance - The North Exchange 50 index closed at 1,476.97, with a gain of 87.17 points, representing a 6.27% increase [2][15]. - The trading volume for the North Exchange 50 was reported at approximately 200 billion, which is a significant increase compared to the recent daily average of around 100 billion [5][16]. Fund Inflows and Investment Trends - The surge in the North Exchange 50 is attributed to passive inflows from newly opened two-year fixed-term theme funds, as the North Exchange 50 ETF has not yet been issued [4][18]. - There are currently 11 funds focused on the North Exchange, all of which are two-year fixed-term funds, indicating a growing interest from investors [18][19]. Investor Sentiment - There is a notable interest from retail investors in the North Exchange funds, with a significant increase in the number of views on these funds, suggesting a strong demand for entry into the market [22]. - The best-performing stocks in the North Exchange are primarily in the basic metals and aerospace software sectors, which are popular among investors due to their low market capitalization compared to similar sectors [22]. Investment Strategies - The market appears to be divided into two camps: one focusing on long-term value investing, while the other follows a "trend-following" strategy, which emphasizes buying into rising stocks and sectors [24][26]. - Recent reports suggest that "buying the dip" strategies may not perform as well as trend-following strategies, indicating a shift in investment approaches among market participants [25][26].

在回撤控制方式上，可能和市场上很多基金经理不太一样的是，他不会选择在价格跌破安全垫时减仓甚 至砍仓，而是在入场时就做好准备，在相对低位建仓，等到价格上涨再去兑现，而不是追高后再试图在 更高的位置卖出。对于不同"固收+"产品，会设置不同的回撤控制目标。 中证报中证网讯（记者 张韵）12月11日晚间，大成元瑞诚利拟任基金经理苏秉毅在做客中国证券报"中 证点金汇"直播间时表示，近年来"固收+"产品的走红主要源于供给和需求两方面的推动。供给端，权益 市场走强，带动"固收+"产品业绩显著提升；需求端，低利率环境里，许多存款理财产品的收益率下 行，居民在稳健基础上寻求更高收益的需求大幅提升。 在产品投资上，他表示，其在各类产品管理上均秉承均值回归的理念。交易偏左侧，根据市场情绪适当 逆向调整仓位。在操作上，量化与主观相结合，量化辅助风格及股票筛选，量化筛选核心指标为超跌 （反转因子），辅助基本面、技术面等指标，不同阶段指标权重主观调整；主观负责股票买卖与交易环 节。 以中波"固收+"的投资为例，他投资时设置的权益中枢通常为15%，市值维度对标中证1000指数，严格 控制个股与行业集中度，坚持"抄底等待修复"，赚估值回归的 ...

来源：睿远基金 又到年末，是时候对自己的投资做一做深度复盘了，打开基金账户，除了看看收益率，其实我们还可以考虑一个容易被忽略的因素：资产配置的再平衡。 如果把投资比作开车，年末体检就是检查车辆是否偏离车道、发动机是否磨损的关键时刻，而资产再平衡，在此刻就有点像是方向盘的微调。 年末基金投资体检参考公式 要盘点一年的基金投资，可展开的维度实在太多了。因此，为了简化讨论，我们不妨借用这个公式做分析：投资者收益 = α + β - γ α代表选基能力。我们的基金本身质量如何？投资策略是否清晰？最大回撤是否在承受范围内？这像是检查发动机性能。关于如何选择优质基金，小编过 往写过很多文章进行讨论，感兴趣的读者可以查看历史文章。 β代表市场机遇。主要与市场整体阶段性表现有关。 由此可见，买入后就束之高阁，或许并不妥当。年末基金体检或有必要重新审视基金账户的资产配置，在必要时做资产再平衡。 再平衡的原理 再平衡的原理很简单：定期将各类资产的比例调整回最初设定的目标值。当股票涨得多时卖出部分股票，买入表现较差的债券；反之亦然。这一操作遵循 均值回归的朴素原理——涨多了会跌，跌多了会涨。 大多数投资者在购买基金的时候，并不会单 ...