Report Summary - **Report Date**: February 13, 2026 [2] - **Data Source**: Wind Financial Terminal, Steel Union Data Terminal [3] 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the document. 2. Core View The document mainly presents the basis rate statistics of various futures on February 13, 2026, including the basis rate changes, spot prices, and futures contract prices of multiple commodities such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals, steel, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Non - ferrous Metals - Copper (CU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.62%, the spot price is 102,040, and the settlement price of the main contract is 102,680. The basis decreased by 0.02% compared to the previous day [3]. - Aluminum (AL): The main contract basis rate is - 1.10%, the spot price is 23,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 23,610 [3]. - Zinc (ZN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.45%, the spot price is 24,480, and the settlement price of the main contract is 24,590 [3]. - Lead (PB): The main contract basis rate is - 0.99%, the spot price is 16,575, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,740 [3]. - Tin (SN): The main contract basis rate is - 0.37%, the spot price is 391,650, and the settlement price of the main contract is 393,120 [3]. - Nickel (NI): The main contract basis rate is 3.58%, the spot price is 140,780, and the settlement price of the main contract is 140,320 [3]. - Industrial Silicon (SI): The main contract basis rate is 11.31%, the spot price is 9,300, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,290 [3]. Precious Metals - Gold (AU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.28%, the spot price is 1,126.12, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,129.74 [3]. - Silver (AG): The main contract basis rate is - 4.63%, the spot price is 19,670, and the settlement price of the main contract is 20,626 [3]. Steel - Rebar (RB): The main contract basis rate is 5.25%, the spot price is 3,050, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,096 [3]. - Hot - Rolled Coil (HC): The main contract basis rate is 0.37%, the spot price is 3,218, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,237 [3]. - Iron Ore: The main contract basis rate is 5.94%, the spot price is 807.3, and the settlement price of the main contract is 762.0 [3]. - Coke (J): The main contract basis rate is - 3.5%, the spot price is 1,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,664.0 [3]. - Coking Coal: The main contract basis rate is 9.60%, the spot price is 1,227.5, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,120.0 [3]. - Power Coal (ZC): The main contract basis rate is 0.50%, the spot price is 711.0, and the settlement price of the main contract is 801.4 [3]. - Ferrosilicon (SF): The main contract basis rate is - 4.00%, the spot price is 5,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,500 [3]. - Silicomanganese (SM): The main contract basis rate is 2.07%, the spot price is 5,800, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,842 [3]. - Stainless Steel (SS): The main contract basis rate is 1.29%, the spot price is 14,150, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,975 [3]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 143,450, and the settlement price of the main contract is 147,340 [3]. - Methanol (MA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.38%, the spot price is 2,223, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,231 [3]. - Ethanol (EG): The main contract basis rate is - 0.14%, the spot price is 3,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,830 [3]. - PTA (TA): The main contract basis rate is - 0.48%, the spot price is 5,195, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,220 [3]. - Polypropylene (PP): The main contract basis rate is 3.04%, the spot price is 6,850, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,648 [3]. - Styrene (EB): The main contract basis rate is 2.04%, the spot price is 7,605, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,415 [3]. - Short - Fiber (PF): The main contract basis rate is - 0.03%, the spot price is 6,620, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,616 [3]. - Plastic: The main contract basis rate is 0.24%, the spot price is 6,750, and the settlement price of the main contract is 6,734 [3]. - PVC (V): The main contract basis rate is - 3.40%, the spot price is 4,770, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,938 [3]. - Rubber (RU): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 16,400, and the settlement price of the main contract is 16,450 [3]. - 20 - Standard Rubber (NR): The main contract basis rate is - 0.09%, the spot price is 13,736, and the settlement price of the main contract is 13,405 [3]. - Soda Ash (SA): The main contract basis rate is - 4.30%, the spot price is 1,112, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,162 [3]. - Urea (UR): The main contract basis rate is - 1.79%, the spot price is 1,810, and the settlement price of the main contract is 1,843 [3]. - Pulp (SP): The main contract basis rate is 2.14%, the spot price is 5,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,238 [3]. - Crude Oil (SC): The main contract basis rate is - 4.70%, the spot price is 454.4, and the settlement price of the main contract is 478.1 [3]. - Fuel Oil (FU): The main contract basis rate is 8.99%, the spot price is 3,148, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,888 [3]. - Asphalt (BU): The main contract basis rate is - 3.9%, the spot price is 3,210, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,348 [3]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil (LU): The main contract basis rate is 0.89%, the spot price is 3,379, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,355 [3]. - LPG (PG): The main contract basis rate is 11.17%, the spot price is 4,748, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,447 [3]. Agricultural Products - Soybean: The main contract basis rate is - 11.2%, the spot price is 4,100, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,613 [3]. - Soybean Meal (M): The main contract basis rate is 9.68%, the spot price is 3,060, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,790 [3]. - Rapeseed Meal (RM): The main contract basis rate is 8.55%, the spot price is 2,263, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,303 [3]. - Soybean Oil (Y): The main contract basis rate is 5.91%, the spot price is 8,560, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,082 [3]. - Rapeseed Oil (OI): The main contract basis rate is 9.65%, the spot price is 9,920, and the settlement price of the main contract is 9,047 [3]. - Peanut (PK): The main contract basis rate is 15.78%, the spot price is 9,200, and the settlement price of the main contract is 7,938 [3]. - Palm Oil (P): The main contract basis rate is 1.34%, the spot price is 8,900, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,782 [3]. - Corn (C): The main contract basis rate is 0.86%, the spot price is 2,340, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,320 [3]. - Corn Starch (CS): The main contract basis rate is 1.48%, the spot price is 2,610, and the settlement price of the main contract is 2,642 [3]. - Apple (AP): The main contract basis rate is - 1.22%, the spot price is 8,209, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,300 [3]. - Egg (JD): The main contract basis rate is 14.85%, the spot price is 3,280, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,444 [3]. - Live Pig (LH): The main contract basis rate is 7.02%, the spot price is 12,350, and the settlement price of the main contract is 11,540 [3]. - Cotton (CF): The main contract basis rate is 8.65%, the spot price is 14,790, and the settlement price of the main contract is 14,855 [3]. - Sugar (SR): The main contract basis rate is 2.21%, the spot price is 5,370, and the settlement price of the main contract is 5,254 [3]. Stock Index Futures - CSI 300 (IF): The main contract basis rate is 0.06%, the spot price is 4,719.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 4,719.4 [3]. - SSE 50 (IH): The main contract basis rate is - 0.11%, the spot price is 3,079.7, and the settlement price of the main contract is 3,082.8 [3]. - CSI 500 (IC): The main contract basis rate is - 0.30%, the spot price is 8,423.6, and the settlement price of the main contract is 8,448.2 [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the precious metals market has a negative impact on the overall market, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide some support. The copper market shows a tight supply of copper ore and a relatively sufficient supply of refined copper, with copper prices expected to remain range - bound at high levels during the holiday. Aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate with an upward bias due to stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals. The lead market is currently in a weak state, and whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival. The zinc industry is also weak, but zinc prices may rise following the non - ferrous metal sector due to positive macro - economic expectations. Tin prices are expected to trade in a wide range, and short - term operations are recommended to wait and see. Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain tight in the short term, and upstream producers may have more bargaining power. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed, and the key lies in the impact of disruptions in Guinea's mining and the alleviation of high domestic supply pressure. Stainless steel maintains a strategy of buying on dips. Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [5][8][10][12][14][16][19][22][25][28] Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight silver and US stocks declined, causing copper prices to rise first and then fall. LME copper 3M closed down 2.9% at $12,855/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,550 tons to 196,650 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased slightly. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to futures, and the import of SHFE copper was at a loss of over 900 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,100 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The decline in precious metals dampens market sentiment, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide support. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the supply of refined copper is relatively sufficient. During the long holiday, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound at high levels. Today, the reference range for SHFE copper's main contract is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is $12,500 - 13,200/ton [5] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum smelter in Mozambique is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Precious metals and US stocks declined, causing aluminum prices to rise first and then fall. LME aluminum closed down 0.63% at $3,097/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions decreased by 16,000 to 647,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 33,000 to 201,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories increased, the processing fee for aluminum bars continued to rebound, and the market entered a holiday state. The spot in East China was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to futures, and LME aluminum inventories decreased by 2,200 tons to 484,000 tons [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. LME aluminum inventories remain at a relatively low level, and the high premium of US aluminum in the spot market provides strong support for aluminum prices. With stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias during the long holiday. Today, the reference range for SHFE aluminum's main contract is 23,200 - 23,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is $3,050 - 3,140/ton [8] Lead - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed 0.29% lower at 16,705 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 120,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME lead 3S rose $8 to $1,986/ton, with a total open interest of 175,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,000 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 233,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 16,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,400 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from February 9 [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years. The processing fee for lead concentrates remains at a low level. The inventory of waste batteries continues to rise, higher than in 2025. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of smelters declines seasonally. Lead ingot social inventories continue to accumulate, and the domestic industry is currently in a weak state. Current lead prices are close to the lower end of the long - term trading range, but downstream consumption is mediocre. Whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed 0.18% higher at 24,678 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 193,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME zinc 3S rose $8 to $3,424.5/ton, with a total open interest of 235,500 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,480 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,300 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 138,100 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from February 9 [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory has slowed down, and the TC of zinc concentrates has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate. The operating performance of downstream enterprises is mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises have increased rapidly. The domestic zinc industry is in a weak state. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - economic sentiment. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there is still a risk of abnormal price movements in non - ferrous metals during the holiday. The strong US PMI has boosted market expectations of a recovery in consumption, which may drive zinc prices to rise following the non - ferrous metal sector [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 12, tin prices fluctuated. The main SHFE tin contract closed at 391,320 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, the upward momentum was insufficient after the two regions resumed from maintenance, and there were constraints on the scrap side and high - price wait - and - see attitudes from downstream. In the short term, supply is difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot trading has improved slightly, the overall price is still at a high level, and downstream restocking willingness before the festival is still not obvious, with most adopting a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on end - user industries from the overall rise in the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand is slow, and the actual support for the spot market is limited [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the second decline in precious metals prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound accordingly. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term, in the short term, with the marginal easing of tin ingot supply - demand and the steady increase in inventory recently, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly trade in a wide range. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $46,000 - 50,000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 12, nickel prices fluctuated. The main SHFE nickel contract closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the nearby contract was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron averaged 1,048 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the second decline in precious metals and risk - asset prices, there are signs of stabilization, with short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and short - term nickel prices are expected to mainly trade in a wide range. On the evening of February 10, Tri Winarno, the Director - General of Minerals and Coal at the ESDM Ministry, revealed that the approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons, which is close to market expectations and is expected to have a limited impact on nickel prices. The reference trading range for SHFE nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contracts, it is $16,000 - 18,000/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 142,316 yuan in the evening session, up 2.30% from the previous working day. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,200 yuan (+2.29%) to 138,800 - 146,700 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.31%. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 149,420 yuan, down 0.56% from the previous day's closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. The SMM weekly inventory was 102,932 tons, down 2,531 tons (-2.4%) from the previous week, with a decrease of 1,436 tons in the upstream and 1,095 tons in the downstream and other sectors [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: On Thursday, the futures market adjusted, and the Wenhua Commodity Index fell 0.22%. On the supply side, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate has decreased by about 10.7% from the peak. On the demand side, the demand expectation is strong, and the production schedule of the material sector in March is expected to increase significantly. It is expected that the short - term supply - demand tightness of domestic lithium carbonate will continue. If there is no unexpected supply recovery in the mining sector, upstream producers will have more bargaining power in the post - holiday spot market. In the future, attention should be paid to the atmosphere in the commodity market, the resumption progress of lithium mines in Jiangxi, and the changes in the tradable inventory of salt plants and traders. Today, the reference trading range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 0.29% to 2,812 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 441,800 lots, a decrease of 16,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 253 yuan/ton to the main contract [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the mining end, workers at a mine in the Boké region of Guinea have launched an indefinite strike. This region is the core area for Guinea's bauxite. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike will expand. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity situation at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there have been more capacity maintenance recently, the overall output is still at a high level. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The key to future price trends lies in whether the disturbances at the Guinea mining end can materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated through policies or market means. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply - reduction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,970 yuan/ton, down 1.24% (-174) from the previous day, with an open interest of 198,500 lots, a decrease of 6,938 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in the Foshan market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in the Wuxi market remained at 14,150 yuan/ton. The Foshan basis was - 240 (-300), and the Wuxi basis was - 90 (-300). The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 was 7,750 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, and the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was 9,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The high - carbon ferrochrome price in the northern main - producing area was 8,550 yuan/50 - base ton, also unchanged. The futures inventory was 55,253 tons, an increase of 762 tons from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a 1.07% increase from the previous period, with the 300 - series inventory at 632,000 tons, a 2.49% increase [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: From the supply side, although the supply of raw materials has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents has generally slowed down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively sell goods, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with weak willingness to actively stock up. Steel mills will cut production collectively in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. The reference range for the main contract is 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The main AD2604 contract closed 0.25% higher at 22,260 yuan/ton (as of 15:00). The weighted contract positions decreased to 23,400 lots, and the trading volume was 11,200 lots, with increased trading volume. Warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 66,600 tons. The price difference between the AL2604 and AD2604 contracts was 1,430 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to the previous period. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 remained stable, and the

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). The warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable with the local transaction center moving down. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30). The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | 2026/02/09 | 4765 | 4475 | 4470 | 636 | 576 | 534 | 4370 | 7280 | -281 | 381 | | 2026/02/10 | 4750 | 4475 | 4490 | 638 | 578 | 538 | 4450 | 7280 | -305 | 324 | | 2026/02/11 | 4750 | 4475 | 4430 | 635 | 581 | 538 | 4450 | 7250 | -282 | 313 | | 2026/02/12 | 4750 | 4467 | 4440 | 635 | 571 | 534 | 4460 | 7280 | -274 | 296 | | Daily Change | 0 | -8 | 10 | 0 | -10 | -4 | 10 | 30 | 8 | -17 | [1] Daily Viewpoint - The 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). Warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable, with local transaction centers moving down, and the mainstream transaction price is 4150 - 4800 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1] - The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PG - FEI c1 is 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB is 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP is 10 (+13). Freight rates have increased. The actual landed cost has fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread has widened, with the latest at -44.75 (-15.75) [1] - PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature has slightly warmed up but is still low, and the rigid demand on the combustion side is still acceptable [1] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly focus on inventory clearance. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]

Market Performance - The corn May contract closed at 2322 CNY/ton with a daily increase of 0.13%, showing a brief uptick before the Spring Festival amid weak purchasing and sales [4][14] - The soybean meal market is neutral, with overseas markets assessing potential upward adjustments in U.S. soybean demand for the 2025/26 season, leading to a rise in CBOT soybean prices [4][14] Downstream Demand - Deep processing enterprises have begun to issue notices for reduced or halted purchases, indicating that pre-holiday stockpiling is largely complete; feed enterprises are primarily executing previous contracts with weak purchasing intentions [4][14] Market Focus & Summary - Post-holiday, the main divergence in market sentiment will focus on whether the northeastern grain supply will increase significantly with rising temperatures, and the real demand elasticity of corporate inventories in this context. The corn May contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2250–2275 CNY/ton before the holiday, with directional choices pending further validation of supply release and demand recovery after the holiday [4][14] - The Rosario Grain Exchange has raised its soybean production forecast for this year to 48 million tons from the previous 47 million tons, despite a decline in crop quality due to dry weather [5][15] Egg Market - The egg market is neutral to slightly bullish as various channels have paused current spot price quotes. The near-month contracts have seen significant increases following a weak reality check, with the 03 contract price reflecting support near cost levels [7][17] Operational Strategies - For the egg market, long positions in distant contracts like 2605 and 2606 may have value after the convergence of premiums, and attention can be given to opportunities arising from the expansion of price differences [8][18] - In the live pig market, the average price in major production areas is approximately 11.52 CNY/kg, with a planned slaughter volume of 22.92 million heads in February, reflecting a 17.73% decrease from January [9][19]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. Given the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, previous short positions should take profits, and short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differentials has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so short positions on rallies are recommended [8]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. During the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a hedging position of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity reduction expectations, and export rush support PVC. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and production [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is narrowing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, positions can be gradually liquidated [21]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and there is still room for PE valuation to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the overall operating rate is declining [24]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. The number of warehouse receipts is at a high level in the same period of history. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil on dips after the Spring Festival [30]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high production. The valuation is moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of rebound [35]. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 0.90 yuan/barrel, or 0.19%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories increased by 8.53 million barrels to 428.83 million barrels, a 2.03% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan, Henan, and Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 10.00 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and MTO profit decreased by 10 yuan [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and other regions remained unchanged. The main futures contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 1843 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 63 yuan/ton [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. Bulls were optimistic due to macro, seasonal, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 60.94%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.42% [11][12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 52 yuan to 4938 yuan. The overall operating rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3%. The downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a decrease of 3.3%. Factory inventory was 28.8 tons (- 0.2), and social inventory was 122.7 tons (+ 2.1) [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China rose 87.5 yuan/ton to 6103 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene fell 150 yuan/ton to 7550 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. Jiangsu port inventory increased by 0.80 million tons to 10.86 million tons [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6787 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6585 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a decrease of 0.27%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 5.67 million tons to 37.97 million tons [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closed at 6693 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a decrease of 0.01%. Production enterprise inventory increased by 1.49 million tons to 41.58 million tons [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract fell 62 yuan to 7202 yuan. China's PX load was 92%, an increase of 2.5%. Asian load was 83.7%, an increase of 1.3%. In early February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 17.5 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons year - on - year [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 40 yuan to 5220 yuan. The spot price in East China rose 25 yuan to 5205 yuan. The PTA load was 74.8%, a decrease of 2.8%. Social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 232.6 million tons, an increase of 21 million tons [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 41 yuan to 3723 yuan. The spot price in East China fell 13 yuan to 3639 yuan. The supply - side load was 76.8%, an increase of 0.7%. Port inventory increased by 3.8 million tons to 93.5 million tons [34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Basis and Calendar Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (non-Jingbo) decreased from 10 on 1/13 to -93 on 2/11, with a daily change of -30 [3]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang warehouse) decreased from 30 on 1/13 to -43 on 2/11, with a daily change of -30 [3]. - The South China basis (Foshan warehouse) decreased from -10 on 1/13 to -93 on 2/11, with a daily change of -30 [3]. - The 03 - 06 spread decreased from -15 on 1/13 to -12 on 2/11, with a daily change of -4 [3]. - The 04 - 06 spread increased from -11 on 1/13 to 3 on 2/11, with a daily change of 4 [3]. - The 06 - 09 spread remained at 31 on 2/11, with a daily change of 0 [3]. 3.2. Futures Contract Information - The BU主力合约 price increased from 3140 on 1/13 to 3373 on 2/11, with a daily change of 30 [3]. - The trading volume decreased from 409443 on 1/13 to 234042 on 2/11, with a daily change of 2427 and a decrease of 4 compared to the previous day [3]. - The open interest decreased from 434852 on 1/13 to 365458 on 2/11, with a daily change of -8941 and a decrease of 1 compared to the previous day [3]. - The contract value remained at 13580 from 2/5 to 2/11, with a daily change of 0 [3]. 3.3. Crude Oil and Asphalt Prices - The Brent crude oil price increased from 63.3 on 1/13 to 69.4 on 2/11, with a daily change of 0.7 [3]. - The Jingbo asphalt price decreased from 3260 on 2/5 to 3200 on 2/11, with a daily change of -10 [3]. - The Shandong (non-Jingbo) asphalt price remained at 3200 from 2/9 to 2/11, with a daily change of 0 [3]. - The Zhenjiang warehouse asphalt price remained at 3330 from 2/9 to 2/11, with a daily change of 0 [3]. - The Foshan warehouse asphalt price remained at 3280 from 2/9 to 2/11, with a daily change of 0 [3]. 3.4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 411 on 1/13 to 269 on 2/11, with a daily change of -31 [3]. 3.5. Weekly Changes - The weekly changes of various indicators are as follows: -104, -54, -54, -9, -7, 9, 34, -42033, -18419, 0, 1.8, -60, -70, -20, -20, -109 [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The US plans to promote the commercial reserve of critical mineral resources, and China is expected to strengthen copper reserves. The US economic data is relatively volatile, and the manufacturing sentiment is strong, providing support on the sentiment side. The copper ore supply remains tight, while the domestic refined copper supply maintains high growth, with relatively abundant short - term supply. It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. [4] - Aluminum: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The LME aluminum inventory remains at a relatively low level, and the US aluminum spot premium remains high, so there is still strong support for aluminum prices. It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. [7] - Lead: The visible inventory of lead ore has a slight decline but is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee remains at a low level. The waste battery inventory continues to rise, higher than that in 2025. Near the Spring Festival, the smelter's operating rate declines seasonally. The lead ingot social inventory continues to accumulate, and the domestic industry situation is weak. Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] - Zinc: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory slows down, and the zinc concentrate TC stops falling and stabilizes. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory begins to accumulate. The downstream enterprise operations are mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises rise rapidly. The domestic zinc industry performs weakly. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - sentiment disturbances. Near the Spring Festival holiday, there is still a risk of abnormal movements in non - ferrous metals during the festival. The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] - Tin: After the secondary decline of precious metal prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long term, in the short term, with the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. [14] - Nickel: After the secondary decline of precious metals and risk assets, they stabilize, and there is a short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and it is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. [16] - Lithium Carbonate: In January, the year - on - year growth rates of domestic power and energy - storage battery production and sales were 55.9% and 85.1% respectively, and the lithium demand expectation is strong. After the Spring Festival, the production schedule growth rate of the material side is considerable. At the same time, there are frequent disturbances on the supply side. Although the substantial impact is limited, it is easy to ignite market sentiment under the inventory decline trend. In the future, the game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. [19] - Alumina: There is a strike in a mine in the Boké region of Guinea. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike expands. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there are more capacity overhauls recently, the overall output is still at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. [22] - Stainless Steel: From the supply side, although the raw material supply has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents generally slows down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively ship, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with a weak willingness to actively restock. Steel mills will have collective production cuts in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. [25] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: The cost - side price of cast aluminum alloy rebounds. Although the demand is relatively average, under the background of continuous supply - side disturbances and seasonal tightness of raw material supply, the short - term price still has support. [28] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The US employment data was better than expected. Overnight, US stocks rose first and then fell, and copper prices rose. The LME copper 3M closed up 1.06% to $13,239 per ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,190 yuan per ton. The LME copper inventory increased by 3,000 to 192,100 tons, with the increase coming from Asian warehouses. The cancelled warrant ratio increased, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 13,000 to 179,000 tons. The Shanghai spot market turned to a discount of 50 yuan per ton to the futures, and the market trading remained dull. The Guangdong spot market was at a discount of 60 yuan per ton to the futures, and the holders of goods held firm on the basis price quotes, with dull trading. The Shanghai copper spot import loss was about 700 yuan per ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,110 yuan per ton, expanding compared with the previous period. [3] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that copper prices will mainly fluctuate. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract today is 101,000 - 104,000 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME copper 3M is 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars per ton. [4] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The situation between the US and Iran is still uncertain. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, and aluminum prices rebounded. The LME aluminum closed up 0.39% to $3,117 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,555 yuan per ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased slightly to 663,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,000 to 168,000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased month - on - month, and the aluminum rod inventory also increased. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to rebound, and the spot trading remained dull. The East China electrolytic aluminum spot was at a discount of 190 yuan per ton to the futures, and the spot trading volume gradually declined. The LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1,000 to 486,000 tons, the cancelled warrant ratio declined, and Cash/3M remained at a discount. [6] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that aluminum prices will be in a range - bound pattern. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract today is 23,300 - 23,800 yuan per ton; the reference range for the LME aluminum 3M is 3,090 - 3,160 US dollars per ton. [7] Lead - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.39% to 16,753 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 124,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME lead 3S rose 8 to $1,978 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 178,100 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan per ton, the average price of recycled refined lead was 16,550 yuan per ton, the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan per ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,875 yuan per ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 46,500 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 35 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan per ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 232,800 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 15,900 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 50.95 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 126.6 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.227, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 306.79 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 49,900 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared with February 5. [9] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Whether the lead price can stabilize needs to be observed based on the restocking willingness of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival. [10] Zinc - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.57% to 24,634 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 193,200 lots. As of 15:00 on Wednesday, the LME zinc 3S rose 50 to $3,416.5 per ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 230,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,460 yuan per ton, the Shanghai basis was - 30 yuan per ton, the Tianjin basis was - 80 yuan per ton, the Guangdong basis was - 50 yuan per ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong spread was 20 yuan per ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 42,300 tons, the domestic Shanghai - area basis was - 30 yuan per ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 50 yuan per ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 106,800 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 11,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 19.55 US dollars per ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was 71.21 US dollars per ton. After excluding the exchange rate, the disk Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.046, and the zinc ingot import profit and loss was - 3,392.57 yuan per ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets on February 9 was 128,100 tons, an increase of 9,800 tons compared with February 5. [11] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong US PMI boosts the market's expectation of consumption recovery, which may drive zinc prices to rise with the non - ferrous metal sector. [12] Tin - **Market Information**: On February 11, tin prices fluctuated and rose. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 394,700 yuan per ton, up 3.32% from the previous day. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan last week remained stable at a high level, and the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, the upward momentum was insufficient. There were both constraints on the scrap side and high - price waiting - and - seeing by downstream, and the short - term supply was difficult to increase significantly. On the demand side, although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and the spot trading recovered slightly, the overall price was still at a high level, and the downstream's willingness to restock before the festival was still not obvious, mostly holding a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on the terminal industry brought by the overall rise of the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand was slow, and the actual support for the现货 market was limited. [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that tin prices will mainly operate in a wide - range oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan per ton, and the reference operating range for overseas LME tin is 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars per ton. [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: On February 11, nickel prices rose significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 139,360 yuan per ton, up 4.51% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 50 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 9,500 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day. On the cost side, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $61.42 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% - grade Indonesian domestic red - soil nickel ore was reported at $25 per wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices fluctuated upward. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was reported at 1,047.5 yuan per nickel point, up 7.5 yuan per nickel point from the previous day. [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is expected that nickel prices will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. The approved nickel ore production quota is close to market expectations, and it is expected to have limited impact on nickel prices. The reference range for Shanghai nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and the reference range for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars per ton. [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wukuang Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 139,123 yuan, up 1.99% from the previous working day. Among them, the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 135,500 - 143,600 yuan, with the average price up 2,750 yuan (+2.01%) from the previous working day, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 132,500 - 140,500 yuan, with the average price up 1.87% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 150,260 yuan, up 9.41% from the previous closing price. The average premium and discount of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future game between upstream hoarding and downstream restocking will affect the direction of lithium prices. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract today is 138,000 - 156,000 yuan per ton. [19] Alumina - **Market Information**: On February 11, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index rose 0.28% intraday to 2,845 yuan per ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 457,800 lots, a decrease of 10,400 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of the basis, the Shandong spot price remained at 2,555 yuan per ton, at a discount of 287 yuan per ton to the main contract. Overseas, the MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at $304 per ton, and the import profit and loss was reported at - 65 yuan per ton. In terms of futures inventory, the futures warehouse receipts on Wednesday were reported at 262,700 tons, an increase of 11,700 tons from the previous trading day. At the mine end, the Guinea CIF price remained at $61 per ton, and the Australian CIF price remained at $58 per ton. [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan per ton. It is necessary to focus on domestic supply contraction policies, Guinea ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy. [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: At 15:00 on Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,040 yuan per ton, up 2.18% (+300) on the day, with a unilateral position of 205,500 lots, a decrease of 5,669 lots from the previous trading day.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current prices have factored in a high geopolitical premium. Given the potential over - expected production increase in Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, it is recommended to take profits on previous short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, and avoid holding single - sided positions during the festival. Consider holding a long NR main contract and short RU2609 contract for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support the price, the weak fundamentals may affect the industry pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so it is advisable to gradually take profits [19]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and the overall demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to be supported by the significant reduction of coal - based inventory [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, the short - term situation is stable. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil prices after the Spring Festival [28]. - For PTA, it is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing inventory accumulation and high production pressure. Although there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to geopolitical and cost factors, the supply - demand situation needs to be improved through increased production cuts [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures rose 4.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.91%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, rose 39.00 yuan/ton, or 1.38%, to 2,860.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.32%, to 3,357.00 yuan/ton [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while those in Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract changed by 14.00 yuan/ton to 2,248 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 12 yuan [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hubei remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12 yuan/ton to 1,797 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. The bulls were optimistic about the market due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than the previous week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than the previous week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 million tons, a 0.9 - million - ton increase from the previous month, or 0.7%. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, a 1.88% increase [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 19 yuan to 4,990 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,750 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 240 (+1) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (+4) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2,550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 590 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method at 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 million tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 million tons (+2.1) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6,103 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6,124 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase, and the pure benzene basis was - 21.5 yuan/ton, a 2.5 - yuan/ton reduction. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7,550 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan/ton decrease, and the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7,497 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 53 yuan/ton, a 174 - yuan/ton weakening. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a 12.5 - yuan/ton decrease. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a 44.125 - yuan/ton decrease. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton reduction. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, a 0.80 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase, the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,787 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,585 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan/ton decrease. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a 102 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 million tons, a 5.67 - million - ton increase from the previous period, and the trader inventory was 2.32 million tons, a 0.23 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton expansion [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,693 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton increase from the previous period, the trader inventory was 18.32 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 million tons, a 0.03 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton expansion, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton reduction [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7,264 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 8 US dollars to 917 US dollars. The basis was - 39 yuan (- 8) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 114 yuan (- 26). The PX operating rate in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and Fujian United Petrochemical's operating rate fluctuated. The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 175,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of February, a 30,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of December was 4.65 billion tons, a 190 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 297 US dollars (- 5), the South Korean PX - MX was 142 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 US dollars (+15) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 30 yuan to 5,260 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 40 yuan to 5,180 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 2.326 billion tons, a 210 - million - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 1 yuan to 365 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 16 yuan to 420 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 31 yuan to 3,764 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 3,652 yuan. The basis was - 114 yuan (- 4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan (- 2). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, with the syngas - based method at 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based method at 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short term, Guanghui restarted, and Sinochem reduced production due to an accident. In the oil - chemical sector, Zhongke Refining & Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Satellite switched production after shutting down. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 restarted. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 181,000 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure volume on February 10 was 12,400 tons. The port inventory was 935,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 1,312 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 24 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 580 yuan [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel, the spot market is closed during the holiday, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. The market's expectation for the post - holiday period is not ideal. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil positive spreads. For large spot exposures, selling hedging or options can be used to reduce risks [2] - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the supply - demand situation is weak. Policy and cost factors are favorable. It is recommended to hold an empty or light position during the long holiday due to many uncertainties [3] - For coking coal and coke, the market continues to weaken. It is recommended to cash in spot positions before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures market after the price rises [5] - For iron ore, the restocking is basically over, and the price will fluctuate before the holiday. It is recommended that long - term investors short at the pressure level [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The spot market is closed during the approaching holiday, and the futures price fluctuates weakly, indicating a not - so - optimistic market expectation for the post - holiday period. The black market is less affected by the cooling of the commodity market. Traders are not willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. Before the holiday, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading and conduct rolling operations for hot - rolled coil positive spreads. For large spot exposures, selling hedging or options can be used to reduce risks [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The downstream terminal demand is seasonally weak, and the direct demand is weak and stable. The alloy factory's profit is under pressure, and the production and start - up rate have decreased compared with the same period last year. The medium - term supply surplus pressure remains. Policy and cost factors are favorable, such as the increase in manganese ore prices and electricity price disturbances. It is recommended to hold an empty or light position during the long holiday [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market trading is cold during the approaching holiday. The futures market of the black sector fluctuates weakly. The market is in the off - season, and the industrial data is weak. The downstream restocking is near the end. There is news about Indonesian production cuts, but the probability of substantial cuts is low, and it provides an opportunity for spot - futures positive spreads. It is recommended to cash in spot positions before the holiday and wait for opportunities to short on the futures market after the price rises [5] Iron Ore - The steel mill's restocking is basically over, and the restocking strength is not as strong as expected. The price will fluctuate before the holiday. After the holiday, the Australian weather may affect the supply rhythm, and the price impact is more likely to be a rebound followed by a better short - selling point. It is recommended that long - term investors short at the pressure level [6]

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/02/11 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2026/02/0 4 801 2250 2235 2380 - 2300 2398 268 323 -29 -40 - 2026/02/0 5 801 2205 2215 2380 - 2300 2398 264 323 -25 -35 - 2026/02/0 6 801 2208 2210 2375 - 2300 2405 262 323 -9 -35 - 2026/02/0 9 801 2210 2218 2395 - 2300 2470 262 323 -7 -30 - 2026/02/1 0 801 2210 2205 2398 - 2315 2443 - - - -40 - 日度变化 0 0 -13 3 - 15 -27 - - - -10 - 观点 伊朗矛盾继续发酵，mto出现抵抗，兴兴停车，盛虹2月停车，鲁西下周停车，其余也有降幅计划，预计等待伊朗 正常后重新开车， 目前看 ...