关注教会会 贵金属期现日报 | 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年9月25日 | 品种 | 全历史分位数 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | -35.98 | 18.80% | 9.10% | 上期验价差 | 2.63 | H期现价差 | 85.80% | 82.70% | 5 49 | 4.66 | 期现价差 | | | | | | | -166,71 | IC期现价差 | 73.40 | 1.60% | 0.10% | IM期现价差 | -231.02 | 50.05 | 20.00% | 1.20% | 次月-当月 | -14.80 | -1,80 | 28.60% | 24.50% | | | 季月-崇月 ...

聚烯烃早报 2025-9-25 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，官方PMI为49.4，比上月上升0.1个百分点，财新PMI50.4，较 前月上升0.6个百分点，制造业景气度有所改善。8 月以美元计价的中国出口额为3218.1 亿美元， 同比增长4.4%，较 7 月有所回落。美联储降息落地，原油近期价格震荡。9月19日晚，中美领导 人通话同意平等磋商妥善处理经贸等领域分歧。供需端，农膜逐渐进入旺季，包装膜以刚需为主， 下游开工提升，但整体需求仍较往年偏弱。当前LL交割品现货价7120（-30），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-22，升贴水比例-0.3%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.9万吨（-4.2），中性； • 4. 盘面： ...

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Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming operations, leading to an increase in domestic PTA production and a rapid decline in PTA basis. Hengli's concentrated sales have significantly pressured the market. OPEC+ has increased oil production again, causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices. The spread between PX and naphtha has narrowed. Recently, sales and production have weakened, and inventories have risen. Especially with the approaching off - season, the polyester operating load has rebounded to 91%. However, due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the basis, PTA has shown weakness [2] Group 3: Summary of Specific Indicators 1. Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4510 to 4470, a change of - 40 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4344 to 4297, a change of - 47 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4586 to 4556, a change of - 30 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 4240 to 4212, a change of - 28 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6470 to 6440, a change of - 30 [2] - Polyester staple fiber basis increased from 122 to 149, a change of 27 [2] - 10 - 11 spread increased from 2 to 4, a change of 2 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5625 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 845 to 815, a change of - 30 [2] - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5785 to 5757, a change of - 28 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5785 to 5757, a change of - 28 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5885 to 5857, a change of - 28 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 760 to 755, a change of - 5 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 474 to 496, a change of 21.94 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10270 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3800 to 3830, a change of 30 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16250 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14795 to 14755, a change of - 40 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1368 to 1403, a change of 35.01 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7050 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 539 to 589, a change of 49.94 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7430 [2] 2. Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The price of polyester staple fiber production plants was stalemate, while the price of traders slightly decreased. Downstream buyers purchased according to demand, and the on - site transactions were differentiated. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - glossy natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6230 - 6550 yuan/ton in cash on the spot, 6350 - 6670 yuan/ton in cash delivered in the North China market, and 6230 - 6450 yuan/ton in cash delivered in the Fujian market [2] - Polyester bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Polyester raw materials and bottle chip futures were weakly operating. The supply - side quotations were adjusted downward, and downstream end - users replenished stocks on a rigid basis. The market negotiation atmosphere was acceptable, and the price center of bottle chips declined today [2] 3. Operating Load and Sales - to - Production Ratio - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) changed from 93.90% to 94.40%, a change of 0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales - to - production ratio increased from - 22.00% to 30.00%, a change of 52.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) changed from 51.00% to 51.50%, a change of 0.01 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present the latest data on various futures, including stock index futures, treasury bond futures, precious metal futures, and container shipping futures, such as price differences, basis, ratios, and related fundamental data, but do not explicitly state a unified core view. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - **Price Differences and Percentiles**: On September 24, 2025, the F and H futures-spot price differences were 35.98 and 5.49 respectively, with changes of 2.63 and 4.66 from the previous day. The IC and IM futures-spot price differences were -240.11 and -281.07, with changes of -28.19 and -21.79 [1]. - **Inter - period Price Differences**: There are various inter - period price differences for IF, H, IC, and IM, such as the "next month - current month" price differences and "far month - current month" price differences, with different historical percentile rankings and changes from the previous day [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: There are multiple cross - variety ratios, like the ratios of IC/IH, IF/IH, and IM/IF, with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Basis and IRR**: On September 23, 2025, the IRR for TS basis was 1.4835, TF basis was 1.4550, T basis was 1.4427, and TL basis was 1.2299, with corresponding changes from the previous day and historical percentile rankings [2]. - **Inter - period Price Differences**: There are different inter - period price differences for TS, TF, T, and TL, such as "current quarter - next quarter" and "next quarter - far quarter", with historical percentile rankings and changes [2]. - **Cross - variety Price Differences**: Cross - variety price differences like TS - TF, TS - T, and TF - T are provided, with corresponding changes and historical percentile rankings [2]. Precious Metal Futures - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On September 23, 2025, the AU2512 contract closed at 855.44 yuan/gram, up 1.06% from the previous day. The AG2512 contract closed at 10349 yuan/kg, up 0.31%. The COMEX gold and silver futures also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Basis and Ratios**: The basis values of gold and silver, such as "gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract" and "silver TD - Shanghai silver main contract", are provided, along with historical percentile rankings. Ratios like COMEX gold/silver and Shanghai Futures Exchange gold/silver are also given [5]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Inventories**: Information on 10 - year and 2 - year US Treasury yields, the US dollar index, and offshore RMB exchange rate is provided. Inventory data for gold and silver in domestic and foreign exchanges, as well as ETF holdings, are also presented [5]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The SCFI (US East) and SCFI (US West) had significant price drops. The futures prices of various EC contracts also changed, with the basis of the main contract increasing significantly [9][10]. - **Fundamental Data**: Global container shipping capacity supply remained unchanged. The port punctuality rate in Shanghai decreased, while the number of port calls increased. Some overseas economic indicators, such as the eurozone's composite PMI and the US manufacturing PMI, showed positive changes [9].

宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 9 月 24 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | 动力煤 （元/吨） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/09/23 | -96.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/22 | -97.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/19 | -102.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/18 | -108.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/09/17 | -113.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 二、能源化工 www.bcqhgs.com 2 杭州市求是路8号公元大厦东南裙楼1-5层 2025/09/23 2025/09/22 2025/09/19 2025/09/18 2025/09/17 99.63 0.1418 14.42 0.1444 燃料油 ...

音烙橡胶呈报 图1 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/24 R 不 A A POY 1 石脑油 PX CFR |PTA内盘现 PTA平衡 仓单+有 PTA加 PTA负 石脑油裂 聚酯毛利 TA基美 50D/4 PX加工美 日期 原油 产销 工差 效预报 日本 台湾 न्ह 解价差 荷 负荷 8F Hill 2025/0 6705 68.0 609 836 4620 110.81 227.0 102 140 80.7 75.9 0 -78 0.45 9/17 2025/0 105.04 67.4 599 827 4630 6680 228.0 155 110 80.7 75.9 6012 -78 0.45 9/18 图H 2025/0 66.7 107.99 -78 0.50 597 816 4555 6655 219.0 136 153 80.6 75.9 15804 9/19 2025/0 808 212.0 31310 66.6 596 4510 6600 107.67 137 139 80.6 75.9 -80 0.50 9/22 2025/0 (图H 67.6 598 107.67 80.6 -80 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The decline in South China prices is mainly due to the impact of the typhoon, which led to the near - stagnation of exports and some refineries reducing prices to clear inventories. With an increase in port and factory inventories, a decline in chemical demand, and sufficient supply in Shandong, the market is under pressure [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Price Changes - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On Tuesday, the low - end price in East China was 4385 (+0), in Shandong it was 4550 (+0), and in South China it was 4600 (-40). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4670 (-10). The South China price decrease was due to the typhoon impact [1]. - **International Prices**: FEI and CP changed little. As of 2:30 pm, FEI was 549 (+1) and CP was 543 (+0) dollars/ton. The FEI monthly spread remained at 5 dollars, and the CP monthly spread was - 11 [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 monthly spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 62 (+3) [1]. Market Indicators - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the lowest delivery area in East China was 60 (+19), and the 10 - 11 monthly spread was 70 (+0). The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. The PG - CP was 75 (-3), the PG - FEI was 67.6 (-9.3), and the FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5) [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: There were 13002 warehouse receipts (-6), with Shanghai Yuchi decreasing by 1 and Donghua decreasing by 5 [1]. - **Freight**: Freight continued to rise. The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7) [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Incoming shipments decreased, and external shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE also decreased [1].

īs 疯安期货 沥青早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/9/24 | | 指标 | 8/25 | 9/15 | 9/19 | 9/22 | 9/23 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU主力合约 | 3512 | 3393 | 3421 | 3401 | 3373 | -28 | -20 | | | BU10 | 3512 | 3411 | 3420 | 3406 | 3400 | -6 | -11 | | | BU11 | 3483 | 3393 | 3421 | 3401 | 3373 | -28 | -20 | | | BU12 | 3432 | 3322 | 3374 | 3352 | 3320 | -32 | -35 | | 语语 | BU01 | 3398 | 3340 | 3353 | 3322 | 3284 | -38 | -56 | | | BU03 | 3394 | 3346 | 3366 | 3325 | 3297 | -28 | -49 | | | 成交量 | 2575 ...

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年9日23日 | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 价差 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | -38.61 | 7.90% | E期到分差 | -1.09 | 14.30% | | | | | | | -2.84 | H期现价差 | 0.82 | 58.6096 | 61.40% | 期现价差 | -25.58 | 0.0096 | IC期现价差 | -211.93 | 0.40% | IM期现价差 | 5.00% | -259.28 | -11.89 | 0.10% | | 次月-当月 | -13.00 | 10.00 | 29.5096 | 31.8096 | 季月-崇月 | -22.40 | 23.20 | 48,7096 | 3 ...