聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月18日 Z0003135 张晓珍 | 品种 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | 活成失 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 6843 | 6823 | -10.00 | -0.15% | | | L2605 收盘价 | 6902 | 6912 | -13.00 | -0.19% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6467 | 6474 | -7.00 | -0.11% | | | PP2605 收盘价 | ୧ટરર | 6575 | -10.00 | -0.15% | | | L15价差 | -20 | -62 | 3.00 | 4.84% | 元/吨 | | PP15价差 | -98 | -101 | 3.00 | 2.97% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货价格 | 6430 | 6450 | -20.00 | -0.31% | | | 华北LDPE现货价格 | 6810 | 6830 | -20.00 | -0.29% | ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/11/18 P T A 日期 原油 石脑油日 本 PX CFR 台湾 PTA内盘现 货 POY 1 50D/4 8F 石脑油裂 解价差 PX加工差 PTA加 工差 聚酯毛利 PTA平衡 负荷 PTA负 荷 仓单+有 效预报 TA基差 产销 2025/11/ 11 65.2 577 821 4600 6600 99.13 244.0 155 183 78.3 75.7 111732 -78 0.65 2025/11/ 12 62.7 584 825 4590 6580 124.34 241.0 127 179 78.3 75.7 113382 -78 0.35 2025/11/ 13 63.0 569 826 4565 6570 107.14 257.0 106 197 78.3 75.7 113382 -77 0.40 2025/11/ 14 64.4 577 832 4635 6570 105.02 255.0 142 124 77.5 75.7 114594 -77 0.70 2025/11/ 17 64.2 571 831 4615 6590 105.02 260.0 122 ...

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No information provided. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Silicon Iron (SF601)**: The conversion price of 72 - silicon iron qualified blocks from Inner Mongolia to Tianjin warehouse receipts is 5490, with a change of 64 and a change rate of 1.24%, and a historical quantile of 64.00% [1]. - **Silicon Manganese (SM601)**: The price is 5870, with a change of 122 and a change rate of 2.12%, and a historical quantile of 48.40%. The conversion price of silicon manganese from Inner Mongolia to Hubei warehouse receipts is 6517 [1]. - **Rebar (RB2601)**: The price of HRB400 20mm in Shanghai is 3053 [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2601)**: The price is 3260, with a change of 4 and a change rate of 0.12%, and a historical quantile of 19.40%. The reference is Q235B 4.75mm in Shanghai [1]. - **Iron Ore (I2601)**: The price is 843, with a change of 70 and a change rate of 9.09%, and a historical quantile of 55.20%. The conversion price is for 62.5% Brazilian mixed powder (BRBF) from Vale at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coke (J2601)**: The price is 1689, with a change of 20, and a historical quantile of 72.08%. The conversion price is for quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port [1]. - **Coking Coal (JM2601)**: The price is 1301, with a change of 109 and a change rate of 9.14%, and a historical quantile of 54.40%. The conversion price is for S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Meng 5) at Shaheyi [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper (CU2512)**: The spot price is 87095, the futures price is 86900, the basis is 195, the basis rate is 0.22%, and the historical quantile is 69.58% [1]. - **Aluminum (AL2601)**: The spot price is 21910, the futures price is 21840, the basis is 70, the basis rate is 0.32%, and the historical quantile is 76.45% [1]. - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The spot price is 2847, the futures price is 2822, the basis is 25, the basis rate is 0.90%, and the historical quantile is 30.61% [1]. - **Zinc (ZN2512)**: The spot price is 22420, the futures price is 22425, the basis is - 5, the basis rate is - 0.02%, and the historical quantile is 59.16% [1]. - **Tin (SN2512)**: The spot price is 1 1 1 0 00, 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月17日 | | | | 壬泽辉 | | Z0019938 | | 豆油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | | | 11月13日 | | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 | | 8590 | 8560 | | 30 | 0.35% | | 期价 Y2601 | | 8256 | 8316 | | -60 | -0.72% | | 墓差 Y2601 | | 334 | 244 | | 90 | 36.89% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 | | 01+270 | 01+270 | | 0 | - | | 仓单 | | 24993 | 24993 | | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | | | 11月13日 | | 张跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 | | 8590 | 8570 | | 20 | 0.23% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided reports. The reports mainly offer data on various financial products such as stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals, and container shipping, including prices, price changes, and historical quantiles. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures Spread Daily Report - **Price and Spread Data**: The report provides current values, changes from the previous day, 1 - year historical quantiles, and all - time historical quantiles for various stock index futures price spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is - 27.74, with a 15.60% change from the previous day [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratios**: It also presents cross - variety ratios such as CSI 200/CSI 300, CSI 500/CSI 300, etc., along with their current values, changes, and historical quantiles [1]. Bond Futures Spread Daily Report - **Basis and Spread Data**: The report shows basis data for TS, TF, T, and TL bond futures, including current values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles since listing. For instance, the TS basis is 1.3494, with a 0.0020 change from the previous day [2]. - **Cross - period and Cross - variety Spreads**: It provides cross - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - variety spreads (e.g., TS - TF) for different bond futures, along with their values, changes, and historical quantiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Price Data**: The report includes domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, gold - to - silver ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, inventory, and positions for precious metals (gold and silver). For example, the AU2512 contract closed at 953.20 on November 14, down 0.83% from the previous day [3]. - **Basis and Ratio Changes**: It shows changes in basis and gold - to - silver ratios, such as the gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract basis being - 5.22, with a - 2.67 change [3]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures Daily Report - **Index and Price Data**: The report provides settlement price indices for container shipping (SCFIS for European and US - West routes), Shanghai export container freight rates, futures prices, and basis for container shipping contracts. For example, the SCFIS (European route) settlement price index was 1504.80 on November 10, up 24.50% from November 3 [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: It includes fundamental data such as global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (quasi - on - time rate, port calls), monthly export amounts, and overseas economic indicators (PMI, consumer confidence index) [5].

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is an LPG morning report by the energy and chemical team of the research center on November 17, 2025, presenting data from November 10 - 14, 2025 [4] Group 2: Daily Changes - On Friday, for civil LPG, prices were 4364 (-4) in East China, 4400 (+0) in Shandong, and 4460 (-30) in South China; ether - post - carbon four was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China with a basis of 1 (-43), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (-8). FEI was 502 (-1) and CP was 481 (-1) dollars/ton [4] Group 3: Weekly Views - The PG main contract showed a strong trend. The basis was 1 (-101), and the 12 - 01 month spread was 93 (+21). The cheapest delivery product was civil LPG in East China at 4364 (-10), 4440 (+60) in Shandong, 4460 (+10) in South China; ether - post - carbon four was 4630 (+130) [4] - The overseas paper cargo prices rose, the oil - gas ratio weakened slightly; the month spread strengthened; the domestic - foreign price difference weakened, with PG - CP at 128 (-9) and PG - FEI at 111 (-2) [4] - The discount strengthened. The arrival discount of propane in East China was 78 (+8), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, Middle East, and US propane were -2.75 dollars (+3.75), 22 dollars (+13), and 39 dollars (+13) respectively [4] - Freight rates weakened slightly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -66 (+7). The naphtha crack spread changed little and remained at a relatively high level this year [4] - The profit of propylene production from PDH in Shandong recovered slightly; the profit of alkylation units deteriorated; the MTBE production profit fluctuated, and the export profit remained good [4] - Domestic production decreased slightly, arrivals were limited, factory inventories decreased slightly, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 71.74% (-3.71), with Donghua Zhangjiagang restarted and Juzhengyuan and Haiwei under maintenance and shut - down [4] - Overall, the domestic chemical market is strong, there is an expectation of a strong peak season for civil use, but the futures price is over - valued; the international propane market pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to the weather and cold snaps in the US [4]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到 或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 期债 行情回顾 持续走强的动力可能依旧欠缺。 1、基本面：今年以来，在债市波动较大的情况下，债券ETF继续显著增长，总规模一路拾级而上。Wind数据显示，截至11月14日，53只债券ETF最新 规模达7062.9亿元，再创历史新高。年内债券ETF资金净流入超4270亿元。 2、资金面：11月14日，人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了了2128亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2128亿元，中标量2128亿 元。Wind数据显示，当日1417亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放711亿元。 3、基差：TS主力基差-0.0174，现券贴水期货，偏空。TF主力基差为-0.0357，现券贴水期货，偏空。T主力基差0.0891，现券升水期货，偏多。 TL主 力基差为0.0356，现券升水期货，偏多。 4、库存：TS、TF、T主力可交割券余额分别为13594亿、1493 ...

期货研究报告 | 商品研究 策略报告 供需偏弱，部分装置意外关停，短期震荡为主 聚烯烃周报 20251110-20251117 ❑ 聚乙烯： 1、基本面上：本周产业链库存小幅累积，处于于历年正常水平。本周国内小 幅震荡，基差走强，成交一般；美金现货稳中小跌为主，进口窗口关闭。供应 端：国产开工小幅回升，新装置投产，检修装置减少，进口窗口持续关闭，预 期后期进口量下滑，出口窗口关闭，总体供应环比回升力度减缓。需求端：下 游农地膜处于旺季逐步结束，开工率小幅下降，其他需求一般，总体开工率环 比稳中小降为主。短期来看，产业链库存小幅去化，基差小幅走强，进口窗口 关闭，农膜旺季结束，后期供需仍偏弱，短期震荡为主，往上受制于进口窗口 压制。 ❑ 2、从交易维度上：本周产业链库存小幅去化，基差小幅走强，部分装置意外 检修，短期震荡为主，往上受制于进口窗口压。四季度，供需逐步宽松，单边 逢高做空为主或者逢高做月差反套。 ❑ 聚丙烯： 1、基本面上：本周产业链库存小幅累积，处于历年正常水平。本周国内现货 小幅震荡，基差走强，成交一般；美金现货稳中小跌为主，低价进口窗口关闭， 出口窗口打开。供给端，短期检修仍偏高，检修装置减少 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic civil LPG market may show a pattern of stronger in the south and weaker in the north, with overall peak - season expectations. PDH profit contraction may lead to a decline in propane demand, and the current domestic market valuation is high and may decline. The international propane market is in a loose pattern, and attention should be paid to weather and US cold wave conditions [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Content Price and Basis Information - On Thursday, for civil LPG, the price in East China was 4368 (-10), in Shandong was 4400 (+0), and in South China was 4490 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4630 (+0). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of - 6, and the daily change was (+74). The 12 - 01 monthly spread was 98 (-3). FEI was 501 (+2) and CP was 480 (+6) dollars/ton [1] - The PG main contract fluctuated. The basis was 102 (+116), the 12 - 01 monthly spread was 72 (-8). The number of warehouse receipts was 4444 (+250). The cheapest delivery product was East China civil LPG at 4374; in Shandong it was 4380 (+80), in East China it was 4374 (+95), and in South China it was 4450 (+50). The price of Shandong ether - post carbon four was 4500 (+80) [1] Market Spread and Margin Information - The external market price declined; the internal - external spread strengthened. PG - CP reached 137 (+4), PG - FEI reached 113 (+15.6); FEI - MB was 153 (-1.8). The arrival discount of propane in East China was 85 US dollars (+6), and the freight was basically flat. The FEI - MOPI spread widened, and the switching window was still open, with the latest at - 73 (-6) [1] - The naphtha crack spread changed little and was at a relatively high level this year. The profit of Shandong PDH to produce propylene declined significantly (some plants shut down). The profit of alkylation plants rebounded. The MTBE production gross profit changed little, and the export profit fluctuated [1] Supply, Demand and Inventory Information - Domestic production decreased, and factory inventories were basically flat; the arrival potential was limited, terminal sales improved, and port inventories decreased. The PDH operating rate was 75.49% (+1.6), as Lihuayi Weiyuan started to full - load operation, while Binhua, Xintai, and Haiwei shut down successively [1]