2月的首个交易日，金融市场延续震荡走势。伦敦金现盘中跌破4500美元/盎司，日内跌幅一度超过9%；A股三大指数均跌超2%，全市场超百股 跌停。 风险偏好回落将对债市形成一定支撑，债市整体震荡。2月2日，Wind数据显示，主要国债品种收益率小幅上行，国债期货收盘多数下跌，其中 10年期国债活跃券"250016"收益率日内小幅上行，而在经历了1月的结构性分化后，超长债收益率回暖走强。在分析人士看来，人民银行今年将 继续降息降准，进一步带动债市短端利率下行。 | 自选债 | 债券综合屏 | | 城投债综合屏 二永债综合屏 | | 经纪商行情 债市成交统计 | | | CFETS行情 交易所行情 万得债券 | 实时利差 | 债券报价屏 | 利差分析 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产价格 | | | | | 利率债二级 | | 信用债二级 | NCD二级 | # # # | ● 前收 ● 估值 | H ... | | 名称 | | 现价 | 涨跌 | 时间 | | 1Y 2Y | 7Y | 3 ...

Market Overview - Financial markets continued to show volatility on the first trading day of February, with London gold prices dropping below $4500 per ounce, experiencing a daily decline of over 9% [1] - The A-share market saw all three major indices fall by more than 2%, with over a hundred stocks hitting the daily limit down [1] Bond Market Performance - As of February 2, major government bond yields showed mixed performance, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.8150% [3] - The 30-year government bond futures contract increased by 0.18% to 112.060, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts fell by 0.03% and 0.02%, respectively [3] - In January, the bond market experienced significant fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield peaking at 1.8985% on January 8, marking the highest level since September 2025 [3][4] Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to continue lowering interest rates and reserve requirements, which will further drive down short-term bond yields [1][10] - On February 2, the PBOC conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with the same amount for both bidding and winning [5] - The market is anticipated to experience tightening liquidity as the Chinese New Year approaches, although the PBOC's willingness to maintain liquidity support is strong [9] Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the bond market will remain in a state of fluctuation, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to oscillate between 1.6% and 2.0% throughout 2026 [10] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is expected to be weak leading up to the holiday, with small fluctuations in yields anticipated [9] - The bond market is characterized by low interest rates, high volatility, and structural differentiation, influenced by both monetary and fiscal policies [7][8]

关注债市修复行情的持续性 核心观点 西南证券研究院 [Table_Author] 分析师：杨杰峰 执业证号：S1250523060001 电话：18190773632 邮箱：yangjf@swsc.com.cn 分析师：叶昱宏 执业证号：S1250525070010 电话：18223492691 邮箱：yeyuh@swsc.com.cn [Table_Report 2026 年 02 月 02 日 证券研究报告•固定收益定期报告 债券市场跟踪周报（1.26-1.30） 相关研究 请务必阅读正文后的重要声明部分 S 2026年 1月，债券市场整体呈现为触底后的修复行情。2026年 1月，债券市 场在经历月初"股强债弱"的逆风期后，走出了一轮由政策预期驱动、配置力 量托底的修复行情。月初，权益市场"春季躁动"预期强烈，风险偏好快速上 行，对债市形成显著压制，收益率曲线呈现陡峭化上行。随着监管层对股市过 快上涨的"降温"表态抑制风险偏好以及央行持续性传达流动性呵护态度，债 市修复行情逐渐开启。1 月 19 日，央行结构性降息 25BP 推动利率中枢进一 步下行，虽然一季度总量降息落空可能性有所提升，但债市仍表现出较 ...

研究报告 铁矿周报 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | 年 日星期一 报告日期：2026 2 2 | 月 | 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约下跌 0.06%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 79%，环比 增加 0.32%；高炉炼铁产能利用率 85.47%，环比减少 0.04%；钢 厂盈利率 39.39%，环比减少 1.30%；日均铁水产量 227.98 万吨， 环比减少 0.12 万吨。Mysteel 统计全国 45 个港口进口铁矿库存总 量 1.7 亿吨，环比增加 255.73 万吨；日均疏港量 332.31 万吨，增 21.58 万吨；在港船舶数量 106 条，降 12 条。 单边：逢 ...

行程过半的地方两会 有何亮点？ ——宏观周度观察 宏观团队：陶川、钟渝梅 报告日期：2026年02月01日 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 摘要 ➢ 下周重要事件预览：地方省级两会持续召开中。 ➢ 风险提示：外部环境变化不及预期；政策落地节奏和执行力度与效果不及预期；经济结构调整进度与预期不一 致。 证券研究报告 * 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 ➢ 行程过半的地方两会有何亮点？2025年全国各省市GDP增速目标与实际完成情况呈现分化态势，成功完成的省 市与未完成的省市各占一半。部分省市实际增速与前期目标存在的偏差使2026年地方增长目标的设定更加贴合 当地经济增长的潜在中枢，增长目标的表述从单一、模糊向区间化、弹性化转变。对于地方目标增速的下调或 不必过于担忧，这种调整并不等同于全国增长预期的下调，更多反映地方增长目标的设定更具科学性。 ➢ 本周宏观脉络回顾：经济数据方面，2025年12月工企利润增速大幅反弹，中游行业利润"领跑"； 2025年全 年财政数据公布，自2020年后，公共财政收入首度录得负增长，或压缩支出端发力空间；2026年1月制造业 PMI景气度有所回落，但高技术制造业表现亮眼， ...

Group 1: Gold Investment Insights - Financial expert Li Bei has liquidated her gold holdings, stating that gold is not worth investing in for the next 10 to 20 years due to a reversal in central bank buying logic and high valuation, leading to high opportunity costs [1] - The appreciation of the RMB may lead to a decline in RMB-denominated gold prices, further supporting her stance [1] - Li's views have sparked debate, with some arguing she may miss out on recent price increases, while others question her reasoning [1] Group 2: Precious Metals Fund Activity - E Fund's gold-themed LOF and Guotou Silver LOF announced a suspension of A-class share subscriptions and regular investment services starting January 28 to protect investor interests and maintain fund stability [2] - The recent surge in precious metal prices has led to high trading prices and premium rates in the secondary market, but signs of short-term price corrections are emerging [2] - Industry insiders caution that the current market sentiment is driven by emotions, advising investors to remain rational and avoid chasing high prices [2] Group 3: Dollar Index Decline - The US dollar index has fallen to a nearly four-year low, influenced by market speculation of potential US-Japan currency intervention and structural risks within the dollar itself [3] - Concerns over the politicization of the Federal Reserve, expanding fiscal deficits, and policy uncertainty have led investors to short the dollar [3] - Record costs for hedging against dollar depreciation risks and increased trading volumes indicate that devaluation has become a mainstream trading expectation [3] Group 4: Student Housing Investment Surge - The Hong Kong government has increased enrollment quotas for non-local students, driving a surge in demand for student housing, with a shortfall of over 70,000 beds [4] - Capital is rapidly flowing into the sector, with various domestic and foreign institutions acquiring hotels and converting them into student dormitories, providing stable rental income and high occupancy rates [4] - The market outlook remains strong for the coming years, with low short-term risks of oversupply [4] Group 5: Corporate Developments - Vanke's two bond extension proposals received 100% approval, with plans to repay 40% of principal and interest while extending the remaining 60% for one year [5] - The company's largest shareholder, Shenzhen Metro Group, announced a loan of up to 2.36 billion yuan to support liquidity and repay public market bond principal and interest [5] - ST Joy's expected first net loss since listing in 2025 is attributed to operational pressures, investment losses, and increased non-recurring expenses, prompting a strategic shift towards focusing on niche markets [6] Group 6: Semiconductor Price Increases - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a price surge across the entire supply chain, with companies like Zhongwei Semiconductor announcing price increases of 15% to 50% due to tight chip supplies and rising costs [10] - Previous announcements from Guokai Micro indicate price hikes of up to 80%, driven by significant increases in raw material costs such as silver and copper [10] - The pressure from rising costs is now affecting passive components like capacitors and resistors [10] Group 7: Macro Prudential Management - The People's Bank of China held a macro prudential work meeting to summarize and deploy related tasks, emphasizing the importance of macro prudential management in preventing systemic financial risks and maintaining financial stability [9] - The meeting outlined plans to strengthen the central bank's macro prudential management functions, improve work mechanisms, and expand policy coverage [9] - The goal is to proactively assess risks and innovate policy tools to support the stability of the financial system and the construction of a financial powerhouse [9]

21世纪经济报道记者 唐婧 近日，中国人民银行召开2026年宏观审慎工作会议，总结2025年宏观审慎管 理和跨境人民币业务工作，分析当前形势，部署2026年工作。会议明确提出要"继续丰富和完善宏观审 慎管理的工具箱"并"进一步完善人民币跨境使用政策"。 关于如何完善宏观审慎管理工具箱，中国人民银行行长潘功胜近日在接受央行主管《金融时报》采访时 表示，提升宏观审慎管理工具的标准化、规范化和实战化水平。同时，完善管理机制，实现宏观审慎管 理工具创设、实施、评估、反馈、优化的全流程管理。 2025年10月，潘功胜曾在2025金融街论坛年会上表示，货币政策是中央银行传统职责，制度框架比较清 晰成熟；宏观审慎管理全球虽然也有不少实践，但起步不久，仍处于不断探索和完善的过程中。"十五 五"规划建议稿提出，要构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系。 潘功胜近日在接受央行主管《金融时报》采访时表示，构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系，要重点覆盖 四个方面，即覆盖宏观经济运行与金融风险的关联性、金融市场和金融活动的重点领域、系统重要性金 融机构、国际经济和金融市场风险的外溢影响。下一步，人民银行将重点做好以下工作： 一是强化系统性金融风险 ...

先看国际上，2008年国际金融危机发生之后，国际社会对危机的成因和教训进行深刻反思，认识到单体 金融机构稳健并不代表金融系统的整体稳健，需要弥补微观审慎监管的不足，加强宏观审慎政策应对， 防范金融风险的顺周期积累以及跨机构、跨市场、跨部门和跨境传染，并将加强宏观审慎管理作为国际 金融监管改革的核心内容。 经过多年实践，全球初步形成了操作性较强的宏观审慎管理体系。2020年新冠疫情期间，除了采取支持 性的货币政策外，主要经济体普遍运用降低逆周期资本缓冲、流动性监管要求等宏观审慎政策措施应对 重大冲击，疫情后又推动宏观审慎政策立场重回中性，展现出良好的灵活性，增强了全球金融体系的韧 性和稳健性，提高了逆周期调节的空间和能力。 再看中国，我国对宏观审慎管理的探索实践起步较早。早在2003年，我国就在房地产金融领域首次引入 最低首付比例政策。2008年国际金融危机后，中国在全球率先启动构建宏观审慎政策框架，逐步形成了 具有中国特色的宏观审慎管理实践路径。 昨天，各大财经网站转载一条消息，中国人民银行召开2026年宏观审慎工作会议，受到广泛关注。 近年来，"宏观审慎"这个专业词汇逐渐走进公众视野，"十五五"规划建议提出 ...

国际金价历史性突破 5100 美元关口；资金面延续紧平衡态势，债市震荡盘整 【内容摘要】1 月 26 日，税期结束，但资金面紧平衡态势未见明显缓和；债市震荡盘整；转 债市场主要指数集体跟跌，转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【央行：维护金融市场稳健运行和金融体系整体稳定】1 月 22 日，央行召开 2026 年宏观审慎 工作会议，总结 2025 年宏观审慎管理和跨境人民币业务工作，分析当前形势，部署 2026 年工 作。会议要求，2026 年宏观审慎工作要继续按照构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系部署，强 化中央银行宏观审慎管理功能，持续完善宏观审慎和金融稳定委员会工作机制，逐步拓展宏观 审慎政策覆盖范围，前瞻性研判系统性金融风险隐患，创新丰富政策工具箱，维护金融市场稳 健运行和金融体系整体稳定。以服务构建新发展格局为导向，进一步完善人民币跨境使用政策， 促进货物贸易便利化，优化人民币清算行布局，更好发挥货币互换作用，发展人民币离岸市场， 支持上海国际金融中心建设，更好满足各类主体人民币交易结算、投融资、风险管理等需求。 【国 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are under pressure, and caution is advised. Stock index volatility centers are expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held. Precious metal market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see. For various industrial and agricultural products, different trends and investment strategies are analyzed based on their respective fundamentals [6][10][14] Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 150.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 780 million yuan on the day. Due to the current low Treasury bond yields, the steady recovery of the Chinese economy, rising core inflation, and increased risk appetite, Treasury bond futures are expected to face pressure, and caution is needed [5][6] Stock Index - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and the economy has sufficient resilience. With the increase in market sentiment and incremental funds, the stock index volatility center is expected to gradually rise, and previous long positions can be held [8][9][10] Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The complex global trade and financial environment, the trend of "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization", and the gold - buying behavior of central banks are favorable for the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, due to the recent sharp rise in precious metals and the significant increase in speculative sentiment, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is recommended to exit long positions and wait and see [12][13][14] Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last trading day, they showed weak oscillations. The real estate industry's downward trend has not reversed, and the market is entering the demand off - season. Although the supply pressure is relieved, the inventory is slightly higher than last year. Prices may continue the weak oscillation, and investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16] - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, it slightly corrected. The demand for iron ore is low, the supply situation is complex, and the port inventory is at a high level. The market supply - demand pattern has weakened, but there are signs of stabilizing. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [18] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, they slightly rebounded. The production of coking coal is stable, and the demand for coke is weak. The futures have stopped falling and rebounded, but the rebound space may be limited. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [21] - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron contracts fell. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost is fluctuating in a narrow range at a low level. The overall supply is still in excess, but the short - term supply may be reduced. After the price decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [23][24] Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly. Speculators increased their net long positions in crude oil futures and options, the number of active oil and gas rigs increased, and the US imposed new sanctions on Iran. Crude oil is expected to continue rising, and investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [25][26][27] - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, it rose significantly. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil inter - month inverse spread widened, and the market expected short - to - medium - term supply to tighten. Investors can look for long - position opportunities in the main contract [28] Chemicals (including Polyolefins, Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber, PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chips, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda) - **Polyolefins**: The market is expected to be in a supply - demand tight situation this week. Due to rising crude oil prices and some production line overhauls, prices may continue to rise in the short term. The downstream demand is stable, and investors can look for long - position opportunities [29][30] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It was mainly supported by the rising price of butadiene and high device operating rates, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. It is expected to show a strong - side oscillation, and attention should be paid to factors such as butadiene price trends and downstream demand recovery [31][32][33] - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, it rose. It is expected to show a wide - range oscillation in the short term. The overseas supply is shrinking, and the cost is supported, but the demand is expected to be weak, and the inventory is accumulating [34][35] - **PVC**: Last trading day, it rose. Although it is in the traditional demand off - season, the policy expectation may lead to a strong - side oscillation. In the medium term, capacity clearance and export growth may improve the supply - demand situation. The cost is supported, but the inventory is increasing [36][37][39] - **Urea**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The short - term price will maintain a strong - side oscillation, mainly driven by export demand and cost support. The supply is increasing, the demand of downstream products is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level [40][41] - **PX**: Last trading day, it rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are stable, the operating rate is declining, and the cost of crude oil provides support. It is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and investors can participate in the low - level range [42][43] - **PTA**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded to the average level of previous years, and the upward space may be limited. The supply has little change, the demand is seasonally decreasing, but the cost and market sentiment boost the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with a slight inventory accumulation in January and February [44] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is shrinking due to increased domestic and overseas device overhauls, but the port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream polyester is in seasonal maintenance. It is expected to have limited upward space in the short term, and investors should operate carefully [45][46] - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, it rose. The supply is at a relatively high level, the inventory is at a low level, and it is mainly trading based on the cost - side logic. It is expected to oscillate with the raw material price, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - holiday stocking [47] - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, it rose. The processing fee has rebounded, the supply is expected to shrink during the Spring Festival, the export is increasing, and it is mainly driven by the cost side. It is expected to oscillate with the cost, and investors can participate cautiously on dips [48][49] - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the price is stable for the time being, and it lacks substantial support in the short term. Caution is advised [50][51] - **Glass**: Last trading day, it rose. The fundamental situation is loose, the inventory is increasing, the market demand is weak, but the manufacturers' shipments are good due to pre - holiday stocking. It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [52][53] - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, it rose. The winter seasonal characteristics are significant, with sufficient supply, high inventory, and weak demand. Affected by the alumina price fluctuation, the pre - holiday trading sentiment may fluctuate, but caution is still needed due to the unchanged fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches [54][55] Agricultural Products (including Pulp, Carbonate Lithium, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel, Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apples, Pigs, Eggs, Corn & Starch, Logs) - **Pulp**: Last trading day, it fell. The inventory is accumulating, the spot trading is light, the downstream procurement is coming to an end, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but rational treatment is needed [56][57] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is at a high level, the consumption is improving, the inventory is decreasing, and there is strong support for the price. However, the short - term volatility may increase, and risk control is necessary [58][59] - **Copper**: Last trading day, it rose. The US economic data is divided, the Fed's long - term monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the global copper concentrate supply is tight. However, the demand is suppressed by high prices, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [60][61] - **Aluminum**: Last trading day, it rose slightly. The alumina market has an oversupply situation, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is inelastic. The high price suppresses the demand, and the inventory is accumulating rapidly. It is expected to adjust at a high level [62][63][64] - **Zinc**: Last trading day, it rose. The domestic refined zinc production is increasing, the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the inventory is slightly increasing. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust [65][66] - **Lead**: Last trading day, it fell slightly. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, the production capacity of primary lead is restricted, the demand is differentiated, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to maintain an interval oscillation [67][68] - **Tin**: Last trading day, it fell. The supply is generally tight due to the slow resumption of production in Wa State and the crackdown on illegal mines in Indonesia. The demand has certain resilience, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and risk control is needed [69] - **Nickel**: Last trading day, it fell. The global geopolitical situation is tense, the Indonesian nickel quota is reduced, and the cost is rising. However, the stainless - steel consumption is in the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. The first - grade nickel is in an oversupply situation [70] - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, they rose. The Brazilian soybean harvest is accelerating, and the domestic soybean import is slowing down. The supply of soybean is relatively loose, the cost support is weakening, the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is slightly improving. Investors can look for long - position opportunities for soybean meal in the low - cost support range and consider exiting long positions for soybean oil on rallies [71][72] - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil futures rose, supported by the price of related oils and crude oil and favorable export data. The domestic palm oil inventory is at a medium level in the past 7 years. Investors can consider long - position opportunities after the price correction [73][74][75] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The Canadian rapeseed price fell. The Chinese tariff on Canadian rapeseed will be reduced. The domestic rapeseed meal inventory is decreasing, and the rapeseed oil inventory is increasing. Investors can consider closing the spread - widening positions between soybean and rapeseed products [76][77] - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton futures oscillated. The external market cotton price fell. The USDA report is favorable for the market, and the medium - term external cotton price is expected to be strong. The domestic cotton harvest is good, but the inventory increase is lower than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream demand has resilience. The medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to be strong, but the domestic market is under pressure in the short term. Investors can buy on dips after the price correction [78][79][80] - **Sugar**: The domestic and foreign sugar futures oscillated. India's sugar production is expected to increase, and the domestic market will face the dual supply pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is recommended to short on rallies [82][83][84] - **Apples**: The domestic apple futures oscillated weakly. The current inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season apple production and quality have declined. The medium - to - long - term price is expected to be strong, and investors can go long on dips [86][87][88] - **Pigs**: The main contract fell. The supply is expected to be under pressure in the first quarter, and the market is waiting for the marginal change in consumption during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to wait and see [90][91] - **Eggs**: The main contract rose. The egg supply is expected to remain at a relatively high level in January, but the supply - side improvement is emerging. It is recommended to hold positive spreads [92] - **Corn & Starch**: The main contracts of corn and corn starch fell. The northern port inventory is low, the spot price is strong, and the domestic corn is basically in balance of production and demand. The demand for corn starch is slightly improving, but the supply is abundant, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to follow the corn market [93][94] - **Logs**: The main contract rose slightly. The supply is shrinking at a high level, the inventory is decreasing, the demand is entering the pre - holiday end, and the cost is rising. The overall supply - demand is tending to be loose, but the cost support is strengthening [95][96][97]