会议强调，构建科学稳健的货币政策体系，动态评估完善货币政策框架，丰富货币政策工具箱，加强货 币政策执行和传导。统筹做好金融"五篇大文章"。健全覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系和系统性金融风险 防范处置机制，强化重点领域的宏观审慎管理，完善系统重要性金融机构监管的基本框架。建设规范、 透明、开放、有活力、有韧性的金融市场体系。建设安全高效的金融基础设施体系。完善中央银行履职 的法律基础。 北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）据人民银行官网消息，12月12日，中国人民银行党委书记、行长潘功胜主持 召开党委会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，落实全国金融系统工作会议要求，研究部署贯彻落实 举措。中国人民银行各党委成员出席会议。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market [2][4][67][68] 2. Report's Core View - Economic downward pressure may rise, and there is a high possibility of a future policy interest rate cut. The CPI rebounded to positive territory year-on-year in October, and the year-on-year decline of PPI narrowed. However, the economic growth pressure remains high, with significant declines in the year-on-year growth rates of investment and consumption. Since 2018, the probability of making profits in the bond market in December has been high. The report continues to clearly be bullish on the bond market [2][67] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro News - On December 5, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted a 100 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months (91 days), and another 6 - month - term operation is expected within the month [4][10] - The central bank governor stated in an article that the central bank aims to maintain currency value stability and financial stability. The monetary policy system and the macro - prudential management system are two fundamental tools for macro - management [4][14] - In December 2025, the Bank of Japan signaled a clear interest rate hike, with an 85% probability of raising the policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% at its monthly monetary policy meeting [4][14] 3.2 Meso - level High - frequency Data 3.2.1 Consumption - As of November 30, the average daily retail volume of passenger car manufacturers increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the average daily wholesale volume increased by 19.3% year - on - year. As of December 5, the total box office revenue of national movies in the past 7 days increased by 290.7% year - on - year. As of November 21, the total retail volume of three major household appliances decreased by 25.0% year - on - year, and the total retail sales decreased by 48.2% year - on - year [9][15][20] 3.2.2 Transportation - As of November 30, the container throughput of ports increased by 16.8% year - on - year, the postal express pick - up volume increased by 2.4% year - on - year, the postal express delivery volume increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the railway freight volume increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and the highway truck traffic volume increased by 3.1% year - on - year. As of December 5, the average subway passenger volume in first - tier cities in the past 7 days increased by 0.6% year - on - year [9][23][26] 3.2.3 Operating Rates - As of December 3, the blast furnace operating rate of major steel enterprises increased by 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. As of December 4, the average operating rate of asphalt decreased by 2.0 percentage points year - on - year, the soda ash operating rate decreased by 6.5 percentage points year - on - year, and the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.7 percentage points year - on - year. As of December 5, the average operating rate of PX was 88.5%, and the average operating rate of PTA was 74.1% [9][28][30] 3.2.4 Real Estate - As of December 5, the total commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities in the past 7 days decreased by 29.9% year - on - year. As of November 28, the second - hand housing transaction area in 9 sample cities decreased by 24.2% year - on - year [9][33][36] 3.2.5 Prices - As of December 5, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 24.2% year - on - year and 2.1% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of vegetables increased by 17.7% year - on - year and 2.1% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average wholesale price of 6 key fruits increased by 2.4% year - on - year and 3.8% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average price of thermal coal at northern ports decreased by 0.7% year - on - year and increased by 4.4% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of WTI crude oil decreased by 13.9% year - on - year and 2.2% compared with 4 weeks ago. The average spot price of rebar decreased by 5.4% year - on - year and increased by 2.5% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of iron ore increased by 0.1% year - on - year and 1.4% compared with 4 weeks ago; the average spot price of glass decreased by 15.3% year - on - year and 1.2% compared with 4 weeks ago [9][40][44] 3.3 Bond and Foreign Exchange Markets - On December 5, overnight Shibor decreased by 0.60 BP compared with December 1; R001 increased by 0.06 BP, R007 increased by 0.32 BP; DR001 decreased by 0.59 BP, DR007 decreased by 2.00 BP; IBO001 decreased by 0.53 BP, IBO007 decreased by 4.80 BP. Most government bond yields increased. On December 5, the yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.40%, 1.63%, 1.85%, and 2.26% respectively, compared with November 28, they changed by - 0.1 BP, + 1.6 BP, + 0.6 BP, and + 7.3 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year China Development Bank bonds were 1.63%, 1.84%, 2.01%, and 2.40% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 0.8 BP, 3.2 BP, 3.5 BP, and 7.2 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year local government bonds were 1.48%, 1.79%, and 2.06% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 2.8 BP, 4.7 BP, and 3.5 BP respectively. The yields of 1 - month and 1 - year AAA and AA + inter - bank certificates of deposit were 1.61%, 1.66%, 1.63%, and 1.69% respectively, compared with November 28, they changed by + 16.0 BP, + 1.0 BP, + 16.0 BP, and remained unchanged respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the 10 - year government bond yields of the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, and Germany were 4.14%, 1.95%, 4.48%, and 2.86% respectively, compared with November 28, they increased by 12 BP, 14 BP, 1 BP, and 9 BP respectively. On December 5, the central parity rate and spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB were 7.07, compared with November 28, they decreased by 40 and 88 pips respectively [50][53][60] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is clearly bullish on the bond market. Banks' self - operations focus on government bonds within 10 years, insurance companies' asset allocation and trading desks focus on 30 - year bonds, bond funds focus on 5 - year capital bonds, and bank wealth management products focus on credit bonds below 3 years. From the domestic fundamental perspective, domestic economic data is under pressure, housing prices have further declined, and the current short - term interest rate is too high, so the necessity of a policy interest rate cut has significantly increased. From the external environment, the Fed has started an interest rate cut cycle and may cut interest rates by another 25 BP within the year. Currently, long - term bond yields have reached the highest point of the year, and the probability of making profits is high under the dual influence of domestic and external factors [4][67][68]

FICC日报 | 2025-12-05 国债期货集体收跌，日债持续承压 市场分析 国内政策预期升温。11月14日国务院常务会议，研究深入实施"两重"建设有关工作，部署增强消费品供需适配性进 一步促进消费政策措施。11月24日，国家发展改革委价格司组织召开价格无序竞争成本认定工作座谈会。11月28 日，工信部组织召开动力和储能电池行业制造业企业座谈会，强调认真落实党中央关于综合整治"内卷式"竞争的 决策部署，加快推出针对性政策举措，依法依规治理动力和储能电池产业非理性竞争。数据方面，中国10月出口 （以美元计价）同比下降1.1%，前值增8.3%，进出口数据受工作日天数减少以及节前抢出口影响，前期的"抢出口" 和"抢进口"有待消化，同时10月投资、消费和工业的增速也出现不同程度放缓，国内经济基础有待夯实。中国11 月官方制造业PMI环比回升至49.2，高技术制造业PMI连续10个月位于临界点50以上，受高基数影响非制造业PMI 小幅回落。党的二十届四中全会通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》提出， 构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系。中国央行12月5日将开展100 ...

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 5 日 星期五 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 早盘提示 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周四两市主要指数宽幅波动，走势分化，机器人和半导体板块领涨，中证 1000 指 | | | | | | 数继续拖累市场。两市成交额 1.54 万亿元，缩量。沪深 300 指数收 4546 点，涨 | 15 | | | | | 点，涨幅 0.34%；上证 50 指数收 2974 点，涨 11 点，涨幅 0.38%；中证 500 指数收 | | | | | | 7012 点，涨 16 点，涨幅 0.24%；中证 1000 指数收 7248 点，涨 1 点，涨幅 0.01%。 | | | | | | 行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是半导体设备 ETF、机器人 50ETF、科创半导体 ETF、 | | ...

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）12月4日，人民银行行长潘功胜在《人民日报》撰文指出，中央银行 以维护币值稳定和金融稳定为双目标，货币政策体系和宏观审慎管理体系是中央银行实施宏观管理的两 项基础性工具，是实现双目标的双支柱。构建科学稳健的货币政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体 系，有利于把维护币值稳定和金融稳定更好结合起来，对于支撑金融强国建设具有重要的意义。 潘功胜表示，准确把握覆盖全面的内涵和要求。我国较早引入宏观审慎理念，在信贷市场、资本市场、 外汇市场、房地产市场等领域探索建立了宏观审慎管理框架。近年来，我国经济金融的关联性、金融体 系的复杂性、国际国内金融市场溢出效应和联动性日益增强，需要不断完善宏观审慎管理框架、拓展覆 盖范围，提高金融体系韧性，提高应对冲击的能力。 一是更好覆盖宏观经济运行与金融风险的关联性。金融高质量发展的重要基础是经济高质量发展。需要 密切监测评估宏观经济运行态势，坚持推动经济高质量发展，为金融高质量发展奠定坚实基础。 二是更好覆盖金融市场和金融活动的重点领域。近年来，我国金融市场发展格局日益完善，金融创新日 趋活跃，科技与金融深度融合发展，各类金融业务、金融工具、金融行为 ...

钛媒体App 12月4日消息，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在人民日报发表署名文章《构建科学稳健的货币政 策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》，文中提到，做实覆盖 全面的重点领域风险防范举措。对经济运行，防止经济运行中的关键领域、关键行业大幅波动影响经济 金融高质量发展进程。对重点金融机构，围绕提升损失吸收能力和风险应对水平、强化风险早识别早预 警，不断夯实附加监管。对跨境资本流动，根据形势及时采取逆周期调控措施，保持跨境资本流动总体 平稳。对金融市场，及时矫正和阻断市场"羊群效应"，促进实体经济和金融市场的正向循环。对房地产 市场，加强房地产金融宏观审慎管理，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展，助力构建房地产发展新模式。对 互联网金融，把握好防范风险与促进创新的平衡，促进其整体稳健运行。（人民日报） ...

钛媒体App 12月4日消息，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在人民日报发表署名文章《构建科学稳健的货币政 策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系（学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神）》，文中提到，要建立标 准化、系统化的定量与定性结合的宏观审慎监测评估框架，从宏观、整体上把握风险演变，更加关注经 济运行与金融风险的关联性。聚焦系统重要性金融机构、跨境资本流动、金融市场、房地产市场、互联 网金融等重点领域，识别和评估代表性风险和薄弱环节，强化监测结果运用，为针对性创设宏观审慎政 策工具、完善宏观审慎管理提供支撑。（人民日报） ...

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high level of spending [11][12] - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, with a focus on guiding expectations and improving transmission efficiency [1][23] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in supporting economic growth and structural transformation, with a deficit rate maintained around 4% [2][61] - Special bonds and new special debt scales are anticipated to expand slightly compared to 2025, aiming to keep fiscal expenditure growth in line with or above nominal GDP growth [2][63] - The focus will be on investing in social welfare and new infrastructure, particularly in areas like elderly care and child welfare [2][61] Group 3: Tax and Fiscal System Reform - Fiscal reforms will address structural contradictions, focusing on macro tax burden, central-local relations, and social security systems [3][61] - The aim is to maintain a reasonable macro tax burden and regulate tax incentives to curb excessive competition among local governments [3][61] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with an emphasis on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement a rate cut of about 10 basis points to maintain liquidity [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Macro Governance - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible response to market changes, enhancing policy effectiveness [1][42] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is evolving, with a focus on improving the overall governance system [1][42]

政策回顾：财政货币政策协同支撑2025年经济增长 财政政策呈现力度加大、节奏前置、灵活性提升的突出特征，充分体现对经济的托底意图。 2025年财政 融资规模创历史新高，政府债净融资达14.36万亿元，占GDP比例预计为10.2%。2025年前三季度广义财 政支出同比增长7.9%，支出力度为近年高位。支出节奏明显前置，配合四季度灵活出台的增量政策，凸 显财政对宏观经济支持的积极姿态。 货币政策重归"适度宽松"基调，注重预期引导与传导疏通，操作更趋精准审慎。 2025年央行保持流动性 合理充裕，资金利率整体处于较低水平；降息次数和幅度较2024年更为谨慎，政策节奏前置，社融增速 呈现"前高后稳"。同时，2025年央行加强市场沟通，支持资本市场稳定，并通过多种手段缓解银行息差 压力，提升政策传导效率。 财政与货币协同持续深化，国债买卖操作与商业银行注资体现宏观治理体系不断完善。 2025年央行分阶 段调整国债买卖操作，展现出灵活应对市场变化的调控艺术。财政则通过注资商业银行增强其资本实 力，助力货币政策传导畅通。两类举措共同提升政策的整体效能。 财政政策展望：2026年或成为全面发力、积极作为的关键一年 "十五五" ...

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 13, with a fixed rate and a total amount of 190 billion yuan, at an interest rate of 1.40% [1] - On the same day, 92.8 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 97.2 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Liquidity Conditions - Following several days of net injections by the central bank, the interbank market's liquidity improved, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit-taking institutions dropping by approximately 10 basis points to around 1.32% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous click (X-repo) system returned to 1.3%, while non-bank institutions' pledging of credit bonds for overnight funding also decreased to 1.40%-1.45% [3] - Traders noted that the rapid decline in funding prices indicates the central bank's flexible injections are stabilizing liquidity, with limited impact expected from the upcoming tax period in November [3] Group 3: Financial Indicators - As of the end of October, M2 balance was 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while M1 balance was 112 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.2% [14] - The M0 balance reached 13.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [14] - The net cash injection in the first ten months was 728.4 billion yuan, with the total social financing scale increasing by 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [14] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The Financial Regulatory Bureau plans to release a revised "Commercial Bank Merger Loan Management Measures" to support mergers and restructuring for various enterprises, including technology innovation companies [15] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced new optimization measures for the cross-border wealth management pilot program to enhance communication between licensed institutions and their clients [15] Group 5: Global Economic Context - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.95% [5] - The U.S. government shutdown has officially ended following President Trump's signing of a bill [18] - Japan's Finance Minister indicated that domestic investors primarily hold Japanese government bonds, making debt default unlikely, while also hinting at potential tax cuts as a future fiscal policy option [18]