1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Overseas: After the global central bank summit, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has further strengthened, and overseas macro - monetary conditions are expected to become looser, entering a "loose expectation + weak dollar" repair channel. The recent rise in risk - asset prices is mainly driven by the easing of global risk expectations, the expectation of loose liquidity, and the decline of the dollar's central level, and the stage of rapid economic recovery is coming to an end. With the approach of subsequent important events and the increasing pressure of economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. - Domestic: In the short term, as China approaches important events in early September, the high - spirited market sentiment may continue. After these events, China will gradually enter the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the pricing weight of the fundamentals for assets, especially short - duration commodity assets, may increase. Although the current domestic economic fundamentals have weakened month - on - month, the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is still not high, and market risk appetite may still be supported to some extent [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: Powell's annual meeting speech was unexpectedly dovish, weakening inflation risks, emphasizing employment vulnerability, and returning to a dovish framework, which strengthened the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. The current fundamental expectation has weakened slightly month - on - month, but the absolute level remains resilient. US consumer confidence deteriorated in August, and inflation concerns rose again. In July, new housing starts in the US increased steadily, while building permit issuance continued to decline [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The current domestic economic fundamentals have weakened month - on - month, but the difficulty of achieving the annual economic target is not high, and market risk appetite may still be supported. Shanghai has optimized and adjusted real - estate policies. Under the background of a 90 - day further easing of Sino - US tariff negotiations, the probability of a significant decline in external demand has decreased. Although domestic demand such as consumption and investment has weakened month - on - month, the absolute level is still acceptable. The current capital market remains loose, and liquidity still supports relevant assets [6]. - **Asset Views**: In the short term, the high - spirited domestic market sentiment may continue until after important events. Then, the fundamentals will play a more important role in pricing assets, especially short - duration commodity assets. Overseas, the expectation of a September interest rate cut has strengthened, and the macro - monetary environment will become looser. The recent rise in risk - asset prices is mainly driven by the easing of global risk expectations, the expectation of loose liquidity, and the decline of the dollar's central level. As subsequent important events approach and economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3.2 View Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, with attention paid to the growth main line and capital reallocation [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend, and attention paid to the upward trend of volatility [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market remains under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend, and attention paid to unexpected tariff changes, unexpected supply changes, and unexpected monetary easing [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The expectation of an interest rate cut in September in the US is expanding, which is beneficial to prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of the US fundamentals, the Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in the third quarter is turning to the off - season, and there is a lack of upward driving force. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight rate decline in September [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel and Iron Ore**: The off - season is coming to an end, and attention should be paid to production - restriction disturbances. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel export volume, and molten iron production. The expectation of an interest rate cut has led to a slight increase in ore prices, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather factors, changes in ore inventory at ports, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: Seven rounds of price increases have been implemented, and the expectation of production restriction still exists. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has increased slightly, and coal mines have slightly accumulated inventory. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost support still exists, and supply and demand are becoming more relaxed. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Prices in Hubei have continued to decline, and the delivery logic suppresses the market. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [7]. - **Glass**: Spot prices have continued to fall, and production and sales have improved slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to spot production and sales [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply and demand remain in excess, and inventory continues to accumulate. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [7]. - **Copper**: Sino - US tariff suspension has been extended, and copper prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, the Fed's less - than - expected dovish stance, unexpected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Alumina**: Spot prices are weakly stable, and warehouse receipts are increasing. Alumina prices are under pressure and oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [7]. - **Aluminum**: Social inventory has slightly accumulated, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disturbances, and unexpected weak demand [7]. - **Zinc**: The prices of the black series have fallen, and zinc prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [7]. - **Lead**: Consumption is still unclear, and lead prices are oscillating downward. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [7]. - **Nickel**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and nickel prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected delays in supply release [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel market has corrected. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected increases in demand [7]. - **Tin**: Raw material supply remains tight, and tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand improvement expectations [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Coal prices are fluctuating, and silicon prices are continuously volatile. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected production cuts on the supply side and unexpected increases in photovoltaic installations [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The game between long and short positions continues, and prices are oscillating widely. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected weak demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and the sustainability of the rebound is expected to be limited. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to OPEC + production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [9]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the progress of cost - side factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [9]. - **Asphalt**: Geopolitical premiums have emerged again, and asphalt futures prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disturbances [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical premiums have returned, and high - sulfur fuel oil prices are oscillating upward. The short - term judgment is an upward trend, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and crude oil prices [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices are oscillating following crude oil. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [9]. - **Methanol**: Port inventory has accumulated, but petrochemical news has provided short - term support, and methanol prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to macro - energy factors and the dynamics of upstream and downstream devices [9]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. Attention should be paid to export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Low inventory and peak - season expectations resonate, providing strong support for prices at the lower end. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of coal and oil prices, the rhythm of port inventory, and unexpected device shutdowns [9]. - **PX**: Emotional stimulation and peak - season promotion are driving the market. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - level abnormalities, and the failure of the peak season to meet expectations [9]. - **PTA**: Supply is decreasing while demand is increasing, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction from August to October. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices, macro - level abnormalities, and the failure of the peak season to meet expectations [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The peak season for terminal products has started, and yarn mills are mainly focused on capital recovery. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and unexpected device load reductions [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Inventory has decreased, and the processing margin is under pressure due to the strong performance of upstream products. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected increases in the production load of bottle - chip enterprises and a surge in overseas export orders [9]. - **Propylene**: In the short term, it mainly follows the fluctuations of PP. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [9]. - **PP**: News related to Zhonghan Petrochemical has stimulated the market, but the fundamental support is limited. PP prices are oscillating. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Plastic**: News of anti - internal competition in the petrochemical industry has boosted the market, and plastic prices have strengthened slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and foreign macro - situations [9]. - **Styrene**: The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [9]. - **PVC**: Market sentiment has been boosted, and PVC prices have weakly stabilized. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The rebound of spot prices has slowed down, and long positions in the near - month contracts should take profits. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected monthly increase in Malaysian palm oil production in August has led to oscillating and consolidating prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the weather conditions of US soybeans and the production and demand data of Malaysian palm oil [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Point - price orders are providing support, and prices are oscillating at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the weather conditions of US soybeans, domestic demand, the macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: Sentiment is weak, and both futures and spot prices remain weak. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to unexpected weak demand, the macro - situation, and weather conditions [9]. - **Hogs**: State reserve purchases have affected market sentiment, and futures prices have rebounded slightly. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices have returned to a moderately strong oscillating trend. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the weather conditions in production areas, raw material prices, and macro - level changes [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market is oscillating moderately strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to significant fluctuations in crude oil prices [9]. - **Pulp**: There are not many changes, and prices are moving within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [9]. - **Cotton**: With the implementation of quotas, cotton prices have rebounded with increased positions. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory [9]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices are oscillating within a range. The short - term judgment is a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to imports [9]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals have improved marginally, and it is recommended to try long positions in far - month contracts at low prices. The short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to shipment volume and dispatch volume [9].

Market Overview - The US and China have suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff on each other's goods for 90 days, leading to a global stock market rally, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains[3] - The US July PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.2%, indicating rising inflationary pressures[3] - The 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.33%, while the US dollar index slightly declined, remaining below 100[3] Fund Flows - As of August 14, 2025, overseas active funds saw a net outflow of $1.36 billion, while passive funds experienced an inflow of $12.32 billion[3] - Domestic capital outflow reached $28.67 billion, contrasted by foreign capital inflow of $10.96 billion[3] Valuation Metrics - The ERP for the Shanghai Composite Index decreased from 63% to 59%, indicating a decline in valuation attractiveness[3] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Euro Stoxx 600 have ERPs of 2%, 2%, 6%, and 3% respectively, reflecting varying levels of market valuation[3] Economic Indicators - The US July CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the PPI year-on-year was reported at 3.3% against an expectation of 2.5%[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased to 92.10%, up from 88.90% the previous week[3] Risk Sentiment - The S&P 500 closed at 6449.80, above the 20-day moving average, with an implied volatility trend showing a decline[3] - The options market for the CSI 300 indicates a bullish sentiment, with 55% of its constituent stocks above the 5-day moving average[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The stock - bond seesaw is obvious, and treasury bond futures closed down across the board. Affected by the strong stock market, the rising risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral trading, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates, and it is recommended to short at high levels for the 2509 contract. In the arbitrage trading, attention should be paid to the decline of the basis of TF2509. In the hedging trading, there is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a 0.10% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a - 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [8]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 408.34 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.74 trillion yuan (0.68%); M2 year - on - year growth is 7.30%, with a 0.20% (2.82%) month - on - month change; the manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a - 0.20% (- 0.40%) month - on - month change [8]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 109.41, with a 0.47 (0.43%) day - on - day change; the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate is 7.324, with a - 0.019 (- 0.25%) day - on - day change; SHIBOR 7 - day is 2.01, with a - 0.03 (- 1.28%) day - on - day change; DR007 is 2.12, with a - 0.21 (- 9.18%) day - on - day change; R007 is 1.94, with a 0.12 (6.52%) day - on - day change; the yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) for 3M is 1.89, with a 0.00 (0.09%) day - on - day change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.15, with a - 0.01 (0.09%) day - on - day change [8]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the position - holding ratio of each variety of treasury bond futures, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 in each variety of treasury bond futures, the spread between policy - bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance situation of treasury bonds [11][12][15]. 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - Charts show the trend of Shibor interest rates, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance situation of local government bonds [24][25]. 3.4 Spread Overview - Multiple charts present the inter - term spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures (4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL), and the spread between spot bond spreads and futures spreads (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [28][35][36]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TS main contract in the past three years [38][41][51]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [47][48][53]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [56][59]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Charts show the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the fund interest rate, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [64][66][70].

Report Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [8] - Options: On hold [8] Core Views - The over - expected US initial jobless claims data, combined with the weak domestic economic growth and employment pressure, has intensified market concerns about the US economy, leading to more bets on the Fed's dovish turn. The Fed's personnel changes have also strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's easing. As a result, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline [1][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than market expectations. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, exceeding market expectations. The cooling trend of labor data continues, and the market is trading on the loose expectation, which strongly supports the precious metal prices. Trump has selected Stephen Milan to replace a Fed governor, and the US Treasury Secretary has started the interview process for the new Fed chairman. There are also rumors about potential candidates. Geopolitically, Russia and the US have agreed in principle to hold a summit [1]. Futures Quotes and Volumes - On August 7, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 782.28 yuan/gram and closed at 785.02 yuan/gram, a change of 0.17% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 785.44 yuan/gram, up 0.05% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,163.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,258.00 yuan/kg, a change of 0.83% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 326,856 lots, and the open interest was 378,070 lots. The night - session closed at 9,241 yuan/kg, down 0.18% from the afternoon close [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On August 7, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond closed at 4.23%, up 1 BP from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury bonds was 0.51%, down 2 BP from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes - On August 7, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,107 lots, and the short positions decreased by 180 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai gold contracts was 234,653 lots, a decrease of 2.03% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 958 lots, and the short positions decreased by 708 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contracts was 471,384 lots, a decrease of 11.49% from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The position of the gold ETF was 959.09 tons, up 6.30 tons from the previous trading day. The position of the silver ETF was 15,112.28 tons, up 67.80 tons from the previous trading day [5]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On August 7, 2025, the domestic premium of gold was - 9.88 yuan/gram, and the domestic premium of silver was - 646.37 yuan/kg. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the SHFE was about 84.79, a decrease of 0.65% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.01, a decrease of 1.15% from the previous trading day [6]. Fundamental Analysis - On August 7, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 31,738 kg, an increase of 8.60% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 252,338 kg, an increase of 8.96% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,114 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 2,040 kg [7]. Outlook - Gold: The price of gold is expected to continue to rise, and the oscillation range of the Au2510 contract may be between 775 yuan/gram and 800 yuan/gram. - Silver: The price of silver is expected to continue to rise, and the oscillation range of the Ag2510 contract may be between 8,900 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio at high levels. - Options: On hold [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core View of the Report - The supply constraint logic still exists, providing strong support for copper prices. The demand side shows that the global visible copper inventory has increased, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, with no obvious marginal improvement in demand. There are concerns about whether the demand can be maintained in the second half of the year due to global macro - economic uncertainties. In the short term, the macro - level catalysts are weakening, making it difficult to significantly improve the overall copper demand expectation. In the future, the domestic anti - involution meeting's stance on copper supply constraints can still be expected, and the probability of a significant weakening of demand is low. It is recommended to mainly use buy - on - dips hedging for copper, with a buying range of 77,000 yuan/ton to 77,500 yuan/ton [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 7, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,380 yuan/ton and closed at 78,460 yuan/ton, a 0.23% increase from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,420 yuan/ton and closed at 78,360 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market showed a stable - to - strong trend. The spot price was at a premium of 70 - 150 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract, with an average of 110 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton increase from the previous day. The trading range was 78,410 - 78,590 yuan/ton. The market supply was structurally tight, with a decrease in domestic supply. The inventory decreased slightly this week, and the spot premium is expected to remain firm [2] Important Information Summary - Macro: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 7,000 to 226,000, slightly higher than expected. The number of continued jobless claims increased by 38,000 to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021. The market is trading on easing expectations. There are personnel changes in the Fed. Geopolitically, Russia and the US are preparing for a summit. Overall, the data and personnel changes are fueling easing expectations, which may support copper prices [3] Mining End - Jubilee metals' Zambian copper investment portfolio has made significant progress, and it has all the assets needed for its copper expansion strategy. It has built a diversified platform with three pillars in Zambia [4] Smelting and Imports - In July 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons, increasing for two consecutive months and up 9.6% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 3.113 million tons, a 2.6% year - on - year decrease. The imports of copper concentrates in July were 2.56 million tons, an 8.9% increase from June, and the cumulative imports from January to July were 17.314 million tons, an 8.0% year - on - year increase [4] Consumption - Wood Mackenzie's Charles Coope pointed out that copper consumption is expected to increase by about 2.6%. By 2035, about 6 million tons of new copper production capacity will be needed to meet the demand [5] Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by 2,275 tons to 156,000 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts changed by - 201 tons to 20,145 tons. On August 7, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,000 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - Copper: Cautiously bullish, with a recommended buy - on - dips hedging strategy and a buying range of 77,000 - 77,500 yuan/ton. - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton [6][7] Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, basis, inventory, warehouse receipts, and arbitrage from August 8, 2025, compared with previous periods, including prices of different copper types, inventory in different markets, and arbitrage spreads [25][26][27]

Macro News - The main focus is on the geopolitical tensions between the US and India regarding India's purchase of Russian oil, with President Trump threatening to impose significant tariffs on Indian goods if they continue these purchases [1] - The Swiss Federal Council is preparing to negotiate with the US after the announcement of a 39% tariff on Swiss imports, indicating a willingness to find a more attractive proposal to alleviate the current tariff situation [1] Employment Data and Federal Reserve - President Trump has accused the US Labor Department of manipulating the recent employment report to favor the Democratic Party, leading to the dismissal of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director [2] - There is a significant expectation for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, with a 94.4% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, reflecting concerns over the deteriorating job market [2] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to the rising demand for safe-haven assets amid expectations of monetary easing and a weakening dollar [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, precious metal prices oscillated and declined. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran, Fed Chair Powell's statement on the lack of urgency to cut interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earth supply led to a significant decline in the price of gold as a safe - haven asset. Silver was more resilient but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - Trump criticized Canada's digital tax, terminated US - Canada trade negotiations, and threatened new tariffs. The US Treasury Secretary hinted at a possible extension of the "tariff deadline" from July 9 to September 1. The US and China finalized a trade understanding on rare earth exports, and the US will lift trade counter - measures if China exports rare earths to the US [4][8]. - With the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the improvement in Sino - US trade relations, and the rise in the US core PCE supporting Powell's view, market expectations of monetary easing have decreased, putting pressure on safe - haven assets. It is expected that the prices of gold and silver will continue to adjust in the short term [4][8]. Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - SHFE gold closed at 768.64 yuan/gram, down 9.94 yuan or 1.28%. Its total trading volume was 148,475 lots, and the total open interest was 178,255 lots [5]. - Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 763.08 yuan/gram, down 14.86 yuan or 1.91%. The total trading volume was 38,222 lots, and the total open interest was 213,128 lots [5]. - COMEX gold closed at 3286.10 dollars/ounce, down 98.30 dollars or 2.90% [5]. - SHFE silver closed at 8792 yuan/kilogram, up 128 yuan or 1.48%. The total trading volume was 522,479 lots, and the total open interest was 634,627 lots [5]. - Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 8748 yuan/kilogram, up 18 yuan or 0.21%. The total trading volume was 477,072 lots, and the total open interest was 3,111,050 lots [5]. - COMEX silver closed at 36.17 dollars/ounce, up 0.21 dollars or 0.60% [5]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The decline in precious metal prices was due to the cease - fire in the Middle East, Powell's statement on interest rates, and the Sino - US trade agreement on rare earths. Silver was more resilient due to the strong performance of platinum and palladium but also fell on Friday [4][7]. - After the cease - fire declaration, there were still mutual attacks between Iran and Israel, but the conflict did not worsen further. Iran's foreign minister said there was no plan to restart nuclear negotiations [7]. - Powell maintained a wait - and - see stance on interest rates, which dissatisfied Trump. Trump considered announcing Powell's successor in advance, causing market concerns [8]. - The US - Canada trade relationship became tense again, but Sino - US trade relations improved. The rise in the US core PCE supported Powell's view, and short - term gold and silver prices are expected to continue adjusting [4][8]. - This week, focus on the US June non - farm payroll data and the global central bank forum, especially Powell's remarks [9][11]. 3. Important Data Information - In May, the US core PCE price index rose 2.7% year - on - year, slightly exceeding expectations. The core PCE price increased 0.2% month - on - month, while real personal consumption expenditure decreased 0.3% month - on - month, and personal income decreased 0.4% month - on - month. Fed's Kashkari still expects two rate cuts this year, with the first possibly in September [12]. - The final value of the US Q1 real GDP decreased 0.5% annually and quarter - on - quarter, higher than expected. Personal consumption growth was revised down to 0.5%, and the core PCE price index was revised up to 3.5% [12]. - Last week, the number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than expected. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 [12]. - The initial value of US durable goods orders in May increased 16.4% month - on - month, the largest increase since July 2014. Core capital goods orders increased 1.7% [13]. - The initial value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in June was 53.1, and the manufacturing PMI was 5.0, the highest since February. The raw material payment price index rose 5.4 points, and the price acceptance index also increased [13]. - The initial value of the Eurozone's June composite PMI was 50.2, lower than expected. Germany's composite PMI rose to 50.4, while France's fell to 48.5 [13]. - US consumer confidence in June unexpectedly declined. The consumer confidence index decreased 5.4 points to 93 [13]. - The one - year inflation expectation in the Michigan University consumer survey was adjusted from 5.1% to 5.0%, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 4.0%, both lower than the previous values [14]. 4. Related Data Charts - As of June 27, 2025, the total gold position in ETFs was 954.82 tons, an increase of 4.58 tons from the previous week. The silver position in ishare was 14,866.19 tons, an increase of 115.91 tons from the previous week [15]. - As of June 24, 2025, the non - commercial net long position in gold futures was 195,004, a decrease of 5,644 from the previous week. The non - commercial net long position in silver futures was 62,947, a decrease of 4,227 from the previous week [17]. - The report also provides multiple charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, net long position changes, and price differences of precious metals, as well as the relationships between precious metals and other economic indicators such as the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and bond yields [19][21][26]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: With the ceasefire between Israel and Iran taking effect and Powell's remarks relaxing the dovish stance, the gold price dropped significantly and then rebounded slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold expanded to 3 yuan/gram. Although the risk - aversion sentiment cooled down, the easing expectation increased, and there is still downward pressure on the gold price [4]. - Silver: After the ceasefire between Israel and Iran and Powell's remarks, the risk preference recovered. The silver price dropped significantly and then rebounded, showing slightly stronger performance than gold. As the situation in the Middle East eases, the silver price will give back its gains [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The ceasefire between Israel and Iran took effect, and Powell reiterated a wait - and - see attitude while being non - committal about the prospect of interest rate cuts, leading to a decline in the gold price. The three major US stock indexes rose by more than 1%, and the three major European stock indexes closed higher across the board. The US dollar index fell 0.42% to 97.97, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1644. US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year yield dropping nearly 5 basis points to 4.297%. COMEX gold futures fell 1.66% to $3338.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Similar to gold, affected by the ceasefire and Powell's remarks, COMEX silver futures fell 0.88% to $35.87 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 0.79, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts were 18,213 kilograms, an increase of 45 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main net position was long, and the main long positions decreased, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis was - 24, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts were 1,256,831 kilograms, an increase of 9,728 kilograms compared to the previous day, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position was long, and the main long positions increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50 Japan's central bank will release the summary of opinions of the deliberation members at the June monetary policy meeting - 08:15 Kansas City Fed President Schmid will discuss the economic outlook at the "2025 Agricultural Summit" - 09:00 Bank of Japan board member Naoki Tamura will speak in Fukushima - Time TBD The Summer Davos Forum will be held until June 26 - 09:30 Australia's May CPI data will be released - 16:45 Bank of England Deputy Governor Lombardelli will speak - 17:00 Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill will speak - 22:00 Fed Chairman Powell will testify on the semi - annual monetary policy report before the Senate Committee, and the US May new home sales data will be released - Next day 01:30 ECB Banking Supervision Committee member Donnelly will speak - 02:00 The Fed will hold a meeting to discuss adjusting the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rule [14] 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall back. The verification between the policy expectations and the reality of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [9]. - Silver: Silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on silver prices, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices [12]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 2.25% to 201,137, the short positions decreased by 4.06% to 67,417, and the net position decreased by 1.31% to 133,720 on June 24, 2025, compared with the previous day [28]. - Silver: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 0.11% to 409,978, the short positions decreased by 1.57% to 306,572, and the net position increased by 5.45% to 103,406 on June 24, 2025, compared with the previous day [30]. - ETF: The SPDR gold ETF position decreased slightly, and the silver ETF position decreased in a volatile manner but was higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - Warehouse Receipts: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts continued to increase, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts decreased slightly but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts increased slightly and were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [37][38][40].

Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market reaction to tariff factors has become dull, and the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures has slightly slowed down, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic economy has a risk of being high in the front and low in the back, and there is still room for monetary policy easing. Recently, the bond market may maintain a shock, but the adjustment risk is limited, and the probability of a long - position winning is high [11][12]. 3. Section - by - Section Summary 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: In the first quarter, the economic performance was better than expected, but the tariff impact was not yet reflected. The landing of negative factors boosted market sentiment, but the short - term pressure on the capital side still had a suppressing effect [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board. The short - end decline was within 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond declined by 1 - 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250004 was reported at 1.654%, down 1.25bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank conducted a net withdrawal in the open market, and the funding situation was stable. There were 1189 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank carried out 1045 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net withdrawal of 144 billion yuan. The short - term inter - bank funding rate rose slightly, while the medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: The short - term upward momentum of Treasury bond futures has slowed down, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. The domestic economy has a risk of being high in the front and low in the back, and there is still room for easing. The main factor hindering the decline of interest rates in the short term is the capital side. Recently, the bond market may maintain a shock, but the adjustment risk is limited, and the probability of a long - position winning is high [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - China's national economy had a good start in the first quarter. The GDP in the first quarter was 31.8758 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.4% at constant prices. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.5%, 5.9%, and 5.3% respectively. The capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 74.1%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year. The total retail sales of consumer goods in March was 4.094 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first quarter was 10.3174 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The per capita disposable income of residents in the first quarter was 12,179 yuan, with a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.5%, and the per capita consumption expenditure was 7,681 yuan, with a nominal year - on - year increase of 5.2% [13]. - China has established trade partnerships with more than 150 countries and regions, and the dependence on a single export market has decreased. For example, the proportion of China's exports to the United States in total exports decreased from 19.2% in 2018 to 14.7% last year [14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Information on the trading data of Treasury bond futures on April 16, including contract details such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, and open interest, is provided [6]. - **Money Market**: The central bank's open - market operations, the situation of reverse repurchase maturities and operations, the movement of short - term and medium - long - term funding rates, and the situation of the inter - bank short - term funding rate are presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the curves of Shibor3M interest rate swaps and FR007 interest rate swaps is provided [34].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Report Date: April 9, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Due to the unexpected impact of tariff conflicts, the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond has fallen back to the level in early March, and the easing expectation has resurfaced. If the tariff situation does not ease, the probability of China implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in April will significantly increase. If the impact of tariffs on exports and the economy is further reflected in April data, the easing expectation may continue to rise, and treasury bond futures are expected to challenge previous highs [11][12] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: With strong signals from multiple departments to stabilize the market, risk aversion declined, the A-share market strengthened, and the bond market slightly corrected [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major term interest rate bonds in the interbank market all rebounded, with a larger increase of about 5bp at the short end and an increase of 3 - 4bp in the yield of the active 10-year treasury bond. By 16:30, the yield of the 10-year active treasury bond 250004 reported 1.6675%, up 2.75bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The central bank's open market operations turned to net injection. The funding situation marginally tightened but remained stable overall. The central bank conducted 1674 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations with 649 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, achieving a net injection of 1025 billion yuan. Short-term interbank funding rates slightly increased, while medium - and long - term funds continued to decline [10] - **Conclusion**: Short - term attention should be paid to the responses of various countries before the additional reciprocal tariffs on April 9. If the situation does not ease, the probability of China implementing reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in April will significantly increase [11][12] 2. Industry News - The US threatens to further impose 50% tariffs on China, and China firmly opposes this. If the US implements tariff escalation measures, China will take countermeasures. The so - called "reciprocal tariffs" imposed by the US on China are baseless and a typical act of unilateral bullying [13] - China will impose additional tariffs on imported goods from the US starting from 12:01 on April 10, 2025, adding 34% to the current applicable tariff rates [13] - The global manufacturing PMI in March was 49.6%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The US tariff hikes will lead to a "lose - lose" situation in the short term [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on the trading data of treasury bond futures on April 8, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc., is provided [6] - **Money Market**: The central bank's open - market operations, changes in interbank short - term and medium - long - term funding rates are presented [10] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves is provided [34]