Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The bond market is affected by the stock market rebound driven by tariff black swan events, with a decline in risk appetite. The continuous expectation of Fed rate cuts and rising global trade uncertainties increase the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a 0.10% month - on - month increase and a - 0.30% year - on - year decrease; China's monthly PPI has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year decrease [9] - Monthly updated economic indicators: Social financing scale is 437.08 trillion yuan, with a 3.42 - trillion - yuan month - on - month increase and a 0.79% increase rate; M2 year - on - year is 8.40%, with a 0.40% month - on - month decrease and a 4.55% decrease rate; Manufacturing PMI is 49.80%, with a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a 0.81% increase rate [10] - Daily updated economic indicators: The US dollar index is 98.68, with a 0.36 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.36% decrease rate; The offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.1274, with a 0.015 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.21% decrease rate; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.41, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.63% decrease rate; DR007 is 1.42, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 1.01% decrease rate; R007 is 1.53, with a 0.02 point month - on - month increase and a 1.49% increase rate; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.59, with a 0.01 point month - on - month decrease and a 0.38% decrease rate; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a 0.00 point month - on - month increase and a 0.38% decrease rate [10] 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentions related charts such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contract of treasury bond futures, the price change rate of each variety of treasury bond futures, the precipitation fund trend of each variety of treasury bond futures, etc [12][16][25] 3. Overview of the Money Market Funding Situation - The text mentions related charts such as the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics, and the local bond issuance situation [26] 4. Spread Overview - The text mentions related charts such as the inter - period spread trend of each variety of treasury bond futures and the term spread of spot bonds and the cross - variety spread of futures [26] 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [30][33][41] 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [43][50] 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [51][52] 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The text mentions related charts such as the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [58][60][64]

Report Information - Industry: Treasury Bonds [1] - Date: October 16, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoints - The bond market sentiment remains weak due to various negative factors such as the strong stock market, the impact of the new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations. In October, the bond market may still face more negatives than positives. It is expected to stabilize after the negatives are cleared, but a rebound may need the re - warming of easing expectations. The optimal allocation opportunity for the bond market may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter [11][12] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: In the afternoon, the strengthening of the A - share market suppressed the bond market, causing all treasury bond futures to turn down. Most yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market edged up slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rising 0.45bp to 1.757% by 16:30 [8][9] - **Funds Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose. There were 150 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 43.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 106.5 billion yuan. The short - term fund rates fluctuated within a narrow range, and the medium - and long - term funds were stable [10] - **Conclusion**: Although the economic data in September weakened marginally, it had limited impact on the market. The bond market may face more negatives in October, but it is expected to stabilize after the negatives are cleared. The optimal allocation opportunity may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter [11][12] 2. Industry News - China has officially imposed special port fees on US ships starting today [13] - China's total value of goods trade imports and exports in the first three quarters reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The growth rate accelerated quarter by quarter [14] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27 to 30 in Beijing [14] - The issuance plan of 1.3 trillion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has been successfully completed [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Provides data on the trading of various treasury bond futures contracts on October 15, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, etc. [6] - **Money Market**: Mentions the term - structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change of inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Includes the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

Group 1 - The current global financial market narrative is driven by two main themes: escalating US-China trade tensions and a clear dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy [1] - The US-China trade conflict has intensified, with both sides imposing reciprocal port fees on shipping companies, particularly targeting vessels flying the US flag [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a preference for at least two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year due to risks from a slowing US labor market [3] Group 2 - The uncertainty surrounding policy paths has increased due to the US government shutdown and delays in official data, with markets grappling with rising trade risks and expectations of Fed easing [4] - Gold prices are being supported by heightened risk aversion from the trade war and increased attractiveness due to rate cut expectations [4] - The US dollar is experiencing dual influences from safe-haven flows and easing expectations, which may put pressure on the dollar if rate cut expectations continue to rise [5][7] Group 3 - US equities are facing pressure from trade concerns, particularly in technology and growth stocks, with potential for prolonged market stress if tensions escalate [6] - The S&P 500 index is under scrutiny, with a critical level at 6700 points; sustained pressure below this level could trigger broader risk aversion [12] - Gold is experiencing upward momentum driven by trade tensions and geopolitical risks, with key resistance at the 4180–4200 dollar range and support at 4100 dollars [15]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - A-share market's intraday adjustment boosts risk aversion, leading to a full - scale rise in Treasury bond futures. Bank - to - bank major - term spot - rate Treasury bond yields mostly decline slightly, and the money market remains stable and loose at the beginning of the month. The bond market sentiment is still weak due to various negative factors, but it may stabilize in October after risk clearance. The counter - offensive phase may require a resurgence of easing expectations, and it is advisable to wait patiently for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may appear in the middle to late fourth quarter [8][9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: A - share's intraday adjustment boosts risk aversion, and Treasury bond futures rise across the board. Bank - to - bank major - term spot - rate Treasury bond yields mostly decline slightly, with the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250011 yield dropping 0.7bp to 1.754% by 16:30. The money market is stable and loose at the beginning of the month. The central bank conducts a net injection of 91 billion yuan, short - term money rates mostly fall, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rises slightly [8][9][10]. - **Conclusion**: In October, the bond market may face more negatives than positives. However, it may enter a window period for risk clearance after negative factors are realized and is expected to stabilize. The counter - offensive may require a resurgence of easing expectations, and it is recommended to wait for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may occur in the middle to late fourth quarter [11][12]. 3.2 Industry News - China officially imposes special port fees on US ships starting today. - Trump hints at canceling new tariffs on China. - China's total goods trade imports and exports in the first three quarters reach 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase, with accelerating quarterly growth. - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference will be held from October 27th to 30th. - The issuance of the 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds in 2025 is successfully completed [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It includes data on Treasury bond futures trading, such as contract prices, trading volumes, and open interests. It also involves data on the spreads between different Treasury bond futures contracts (inter - term and inter - variety spreads) and the trends of major Treasury bond futures contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: It presents data on the money market, including the changes in the weighted average rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and the trends of SHIBOR [24][32]. - **Derivatives Market**: It shows the average curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swaps [36].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices surged past the $4,100 mark, reaching a new historical high, driven by trade tensions and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the close, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.64% to $4,159.60 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) increased by 1.33%, while the gold stock ETF (159562) fell by 3.29% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that officials might halt balance sheet reduction in the coming months, acknowledging some signs of tightening in the money market [1] - Powell suggested a potential 25 basis point rate cut later this month, despite the government shutdown impacting the Fed's economic outlook [1] - Fed Governor Bowman noted a weakening in consumer spending and anticipated two more rate cuts by the end of the year [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - Guosen Futures analysis highlighted that the dovish signals from the Fed and expectations of further rate cuts have strengthened the outlook for easing [1] - Ongoing geopolitical risks have increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] - A Bank of America survey indicated that "long gold" has become the most crowded trade, surpassing the "seven giants," suggesting a continued bullish sentiment in the precious metals market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks are experiencing a significant decline in the afternoon trading session, influenced by fluctuations in international gold prices and market sentiment regarding economic conditions and monetary policy [1] Company Performance - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) is down 7.64%, trading at HKD 32.88 [1] - China Gold International (02099) has decreased by 6.6%, currently at HKD 134.5 [1] - Zijin Mining (02899) fell by 5.67%, now at HKD 32.3 [1] - Shandong Gold Mining (01787) is down 4.01%, trading at HKD 40.2 [1] Market Conditions - International gold prices saw a sharp decline, briefly dropping below USD 4,120 per ounce before rebounding, after previously surpassing the USD 4,170 mark [1] - CITIC Futures noted that trade tensions and expectations of monetary easing are driving gold prices, supported by Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and the U.S. fiscal deadlock [1] - The government shutdown has weakened the availability of economic data, leading to a market sentiment of "no data is bullish," which continues to drive buying [1] - A potential short-term technical correction may occur if overbought conditions arise, with USD 4,000 identified as a key support level, and increased price volatility could trigger profit-taking [1]

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has been rising significantly, with domestic gold jewelry brands exceeding 1210 RMB per gram, marking an increase of over 130 RMB per gram in the past month [1]. Price Movements - On October 14, 2023, the price of gold jewelry from Chow Tai Fook rose from 1190 RMB per gram to 1215 RMB per gram, an increase of 25 RMB in one day [1]. - The price of gold jewelry from Chow Sang Sang increased from 1188 RMB per gram to 1213 RMB per gram [1]. - Lao Miao Gold's price for gold jewelry reached 1218 RMB per gram [3]. Market Performance - The spot gold price reached a new high of 4140 USD per ounce on October 14, 2023, with a year-to-date increase of over 57% [3]. - The A-share precious metals sector surged nearly 7% on October 13, 2023, with companies like Western Gold hitting the daily limit [6]. - The recent rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to strong safe-haven demand, renewed tariff risks, and ongoing expectations for monetary easing [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 14, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Although the economic data released in September showed marginal weakness, it had limited impact on the market. With multiple negative factors such as the strong stock market, the impact of the new public - fund regulations, and the resurgence of anti - involution expectations, the sentiment in the bond market remained weak. [11] - In October, the bond market may face a situation of more negatives than positives. Negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus potentially boosting credit expansion expectations, the resurgence of anti - involution, and the uncertainty of the official implementation of the new public - fund regulations. Positives may include economic data slowdown, lower - than - expected fiscal stimulus, and the central bank restarting bond purchases, but monetary easing is difficult to implement. [11][12] - In October, after the negatives are gradually digested, the bond market is expected to stabilize. However, a rally may require the re - warming of easing expectations, which could be triggered by factors such as weakening fundamentals or deterioration in trade negotiations. It is recommended to wait patiently for better bond - allocation opportunities, which may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter. [12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Due to the escalation of Sino - US frictions over the weekend, the risk - aversion sentiment was boosted, and treasury bond futures opened higher and rose in the morning session. In the afternoon, as the A - share market recovered, the gains of treasury bond futures narrowed. [8] - The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds across all maturities increased, with larger increases in the medium - and long - term maturities, mostly around 2bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.759%, up 1.6bp. [9] - At the beginning of the month, the funds were stable and abundant. There were no reverse - repurchase maturities today, and the central bank injected 137.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 137.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank fund sentiment index was stable, and short - term fund rates showed mixed movements. The overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate rose 5.5bp to 1.45%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose 3bp to 1.61% compared with last weekend. [10] 3.1.2 Conclusion - The bond market sentiment remains weak. In October, the bond market may face more negatives than positives, but it is expected to stabilize after the negatives are digested. The rally may require the re - warming of easing expectations. It is recommended to wait for better bond - allocation opportunities, which may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter. [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs recently announced export controls on relevant rare - earth items, stating that it is a proper measure to improve the export - control system in accordance with laws and regulations. [13] - China announced counter - measures against the US 301 investigation restrictions on China's shipbuilding and other industries, including charging special port fees for US - related ships starting from October 14, aiming to maintain a fair competition environment in the international shipping and shipbuilding markets. [13] - US Vice - President Vance signaled a relaxation regarding Trump's latest tariff threat, saying that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China. [14] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller warned that US employment growth may have turned negative in the past few months, and he is open to a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in future meetings. San Francisco Fed President Daly said that labor - market weakness and inflation slowdown led to the interest - rate cut last month and signaled possible further cuts. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on October 13, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest. [6] - **Money Market**: It includes information on the SHIBOR term - structure change, SHIBOR trend, inter - bank pledged - repurchase weighted - rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged - repurchase rate change. [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on the Shibor3M interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curve (mean) is provided. [35]

Core Insights - Gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with spot gold touching $4080 per ounce and COMEX gold futures surpassing $4100 per ounce, marking increases of approximately 55% and 56% year-to-date respectively [1] - Silver prices have surged over 70% this year, outperforming gold [1] Market Performance - On October 13, the A-share precious metals sector rose nearly 7%, with notable gains in stocks such as Western Gold (601069) and Zhaojin Gold (000506) [3] - U.S. gold stocks also saw pre-market gains, with Coeur Mining rising over 7% and other companies like Harmony Gold and Barrick Mining showing significant increases [3] Gold Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with major brands adjusting their prices upwards; for instance, Chow Tai Fook raised its price from 1180 to 1190 yuan per gram [3][4] Investment Sentiment - Huatai Futures Research Team maintains a "cautiously bullish" stance on gold and silver, citing tariff risks and ongoing expectations for monetary easing as factors driving prices higher [5] - The precious metals index has risen over 113% this year, significantly outperforming the broader market, with several stocks doubling in value [5][6] Stock Performance - Notable stock performances in the precious metals sector include Zhaojin Gold with a 254.66% increase and Western Gold with a 187.34% increase year-to-date [6] - Hunan Gold has the smallest increase among the listed stocks at 49.21% [6] Risk Advisory - Silver YS (601212) issued a risk warning after its stock price surged 40.10% over four consecutive trading days, indicating potential for future declines [7]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector surged nearly 7% on October 13, with notable stocks like Western Gold, Zhaojin Gold, and others experiencing significant gains [2] - Spot gold reached a historical high of $4,078 per ounce, while spot silver increased over 2% to $51.71 per ounce [2] - Huatai Futures research team indicated that renewed tariff risks and ongoing expectations for monetary easing are driving gold prices to new highs [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, which is perceived as a significant fiscal risk, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets, thus boosting gold prices [2] - There remains strong uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, but the market leans towards a potential cut in October, providing further support for gold [2]