2025 年 06 月 23 日 工业生产仍有韧性 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（联系人） hening@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070017 供需：工业生产仍强，消费需求分化 1.建筑开工：水泥出库保持历史低位。最近两周（6 月 8 日至 6 月 21 日），石油沥 青装置开工率、水泥发运率季节性位置处于历史中位，磨机运转率处于历史低位。 基建、房建项目水泥出库量保持历史同期低位，资金方面，建筑工地资金到位率 同比低于 2024 年同期。 2.工业生产端，整体仍有韧性。最近两周，工业开工整体景气度仍处于历史中高 位。化工链开工率整体处于历史同期中高位，汽车钢胎开工率有所回落但保持历 史中高位，焦化企业开工率表现略弱。 3.需求端，建筑需求偏弱，汽车、家电需求波动运行。最近两周，建筑需求弱于 历史同期，螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需求低于历史同期。汽车销售同比波动运行， 中国轻纺城成交量处于同期历史低位，义乌小商品价格指数有所回升，618 影响 下，多数家电线上销售额高于 2024 年同期， ...

早安 庆阳 新闻早知道 - 今天是2025年 6月21日- - 农历 五月廿六 星期六 - 多云，18℃~28℃ NEWS MEDIA 今日头条 关于西峰区消费品以旧换新政策暂停实施的公告 2025年 2.已于2025年6月19日24时前（以签购单和发票开具时间为准）购买汽车置换更新、家电以旧换新、3C 数码产品购新、电动自行车以旧换新和家装厨卫"焕新"产品，并取得相关票据凭证暂未上传或上传有误 需修改信息的消费者，须于7月5日24时前在"甘快办"系统提交完整准确的申报资料，逾期未提交申请 的，不再受理。对已向"甘快办"以旧换新系统内提交补贴申请的消费者，按提交顺序审核拨付。 3.若有后续资金另行通知活动事宜。 感谢广大消费者及活动商家对消费品以旧换新活动的支持。 特此公告！ 庆阳市西峰区商务局 2025年6月19日 NEWS MEDIA 西峰区商务领域消费品以旧换新补贴活动自启动以来，得到了广大消费者、市场经营主体的高度关注和 积极参与。 目前，西峰区消费品以旧换新阶段补贴资金 已使用完毕。经研究决定，对2025年 西峰区商务领域消费品以旧换新补贴活动予以调整，现公告如 下。 1.西峰区消费品以旧换新补贴活 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 5月消费超预期 投资增速回落 2025年6月20日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：刘洋 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F3063825 期货交易咨询号：Z0016580 国债期货一周行情复盘 本周国债期货主力合约总体表现为震荡上行，30年品种走势偏强，截至收盘全周30年国债涨0.71%，10年国债涨 0.14%，5年国债涨0.12%，2年国债涨0.09%。 数据来源：wind，格林大华 5月份家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类等同比涨幅较大 以旧换新政策推动下，5月限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类、通讯器材类、文化办公用品类、家具类商品零 售额分别增长53.0%、33.0%、30.5%、25.6%，4月分别增长38.8%、19.9%、33.5%、26.9%。基本生活类和部分升 级类商品销售增势较好，限额以上单位粮油食品类、金银珠宝类、体育娱乐用品类商品零售额分别增长14.6%、 21.8%、28.3%，4月分别增长14.0%、25.3%、23.3%。5月份限额以上单位汽车类消费品零售总额同比增长1.1% ...

Economic Overview - The province's economy showed overall stability in the first five months of the year, with significant growth in various sectors [2] - The industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 3.4% year-on-year, with high-tech manufacturing growing by 9.7% [2] Industrial Performance - Among the three major sectors, mining, manufacturing, and utilities saw year-on-year increases of 13.2%, 1.6%, and 4.4% respectively [2] - State-owned enterprises' added value grew by 2.3%, while collective enterprises declined by 1.2%. Shareholding enterprises increased by 5.8%, and private enterprises grew by 4.6% [2] - Out of 40 industrial categories, 27 experienced year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 67.5% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment rising significantly by 12.8% [2] - Infrastructure investment grew by 1.5%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 25.4% [2] - Investment in the primary industry rose by 16.3%, the secondary industry by 1.7%, and the tertiary industry decreased by 2.1% [2] - Investment in construction projects increased by 6.5%, with projects over 100 million yuan growing by 11.0% [2] Market Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4191.3 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [3] - Sales of basic living goods saw rapid growth, with food and oil retail sales increasing by 20.3% [3] - Significant growth was noted in upgraded products, such as smartphones (up 130%), energy-efficient home appliances (up 54.7%), and wearable smart devices (up 46.1%) [3] Trade Performance - The total import and export value reached 3048.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8% [3] - Exports amounted to 1615.5 billion yuan, growing by 12.1%, while imports fell by 13.9% to 1432.5 billion yuan [3] - Notable export growth was seen in electromechanical products, which reached 803.6 billion yuan, up 6.0% [3] - High-tech product exports, particularly in computer integrated manufacturing technology, increased by 24.1% to 36.8 billion yuan [3] Price Trends - Consumer prices experienced a slight decline, while industrial producer prices also decreased in the first five months [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the mixed performance of consumption, industrial production, and investment, indicating a potential lack of sustainability in the recent economic recovery [7]. Consumption - In May 2025, retail sales showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from April, driven by government subsidies and increased consumer travel [7][18]. - The demand for gold and jewelry has increased due to rising gold prices, but this consumption is not stable and may not be sustainable if income does not improve [7]. - The overall consumer sentiment is cautious, with a preference for using savings over loans for consumption, reflecting a weak growth in new short-term loans [7]. Industrial Production - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value in May 2025 was 6.3%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from April, indicating a slowdown in industrial production [7]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained in negative territory at -0.1%, suggesting ongoing deflationary pressures [7]. Investment - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth rate of 3.7% in May 2025, down 0.3 percentage points from April, with real estate investment declining by 10.7% [7]. - Infrastructure investment grew by 10.42%, but this was also a decline of 0.43 percentage points from the previous period, indicating a weakening trend across various sectors [7]. - The article emphasizes that the real estate sector requires additional policy support to stabilize [7]. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to remain in a favorable position due to a loose monetary policy and weak real financing, with a recommendation to maintain duration and wait for positive developments [7]. - The recent strong performance in credit bonds is attributed more to expectations rather than actual capital movement from deposits to non-banking sectors [7].

6月16日，国家统计局发布5月国民经济运行数据。供给端，5月全国规上工业增加值同比增长5.8%（预期 5.6%），服务业生产指数当月同比增长6.2%。需求端，5月固定资产投资累计增长3.7%（预期4.1%），其中， 基建和制造业累计增速分别为10.4%（预期9.7%）和8.5%（预期8.5%），房地产投资累计同比-10.7%（预期增 速-10.5%）。社会消费品零售总额同比增长6.4%（预期4.8%）。 图1：消费提振，投资放缓 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 资料来源：Wind，招商银行研究院 5月关税冲击显现，我国经济顶住压力，多数指标实现超预期增长，呈现三个特征。一是外需放缓节奏开始， 内外需增速差收敛。 5月人民币计价出口金额同比增长6.3%，较5月显著下行3pct，出口增速放缓，源自中美 双边贸易额大幅收缩三成，转口贸易和非美贸易伙伴需求边际回落。 二是消费提速支撑，增速同时高于市场 预期、投资和生产。 5月社零增速上行1.3pct至6.4%，以旧换新政策扩围显效、购物节前置、假日消费热度高 企，合力推高单月增速升至2020年以来次高位【注释1】。 三是房地产市场以价换量趋向价跌量缓。 70大中 ...

Core Insights - In May 2025, Shenzhen's Producer Price Index (PPI) remained unchanged year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] - The average PPI from January to May showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, while the purchasing price index increased by 0.3% [1] Group 1: Producer Prices - Year-on-year, the prices of production materials decreased by 1.5%, with mining industry prices dropping by 23.5% and processing industry prices down by 1.3%. Raw materials prices increased by 1.0% [3] - Year-on-year, consumer goods prices increased by 3.1%, with clothing prices down by 1.4%, durable goods prices stable, food prices up by 0.3%, and general daily goods prices up by 15.0% [3] - Month-on-month, production materials prices increased by 0.1%, with mining industry prices down by 7.3% and raw materials prices up by 2.5%. Consumer goods prices increased by 0.2% [3] Group 2: Purchasing Prices - In the purchasing price index, prices for building materials and non-metallic products decreased by 7.1%, fuel and power prices decreased by 6.8%, and wood and pulp prices decreased by 5.1% [3] - Other industrial raw materials and semi-finished products saw a price decrease of 1.8%, while chemical raw materials increased by 0.9% and textile raw materials increased by 1.0% [3] - Notably, prices for non-ferrous metals and wires increased by 17.9% [3]

按经季节性调整的数字计算，2025年第一季整体制造业的工业生产指数，较2024年第四季下跌0.5%。 就制造业的主要行业而言，2025年第一季的生产量与上年同季比较录得升幅的行业主要有纸制品、印刷 及已储录资料媒体复制业(+2.9%)、金属、计算机、电子及光学产品、机械及设备业(+2.4%)，以及纺织 制品及成衣业(+0.8%)。另一方面，录得跌幅的行业有食品、饮品及烟草制品业(-0.3%)。 2025年第一季的生产者价格与上年同季比较录得升幅的行业主要有金属、计算机、电子及光学产品、机 械及设备业(+9.7%)、纸制品、印刷及已储录资料媒体复制业(+3.5%)，以及食品、饮品及烟草制品业 (+0.9%)。另一方面，录得跌幅的行业有纺织制品及成衣业(-0.5%)。 2025年第一季污水处理、废弃物管理及污染防治活动的工业生产指数与上年同季比较上升1.8%，而在 2024年第四季则录得0.7%的按年跌幅。相应的生产者价格指数继在2024年第四季录得3.4%的按年升幅 后，2025年第一季与上年同季比较上升1.3%。 工业生产指数反映本地工业生产量变动的情况，即已撇除价格变动的影响。该等价格变动，是以生产者 价格 ...

深圳商报·读创客户端驻穗记者 姚嘉莉 通讯员 粤调 据国家统计局广东调查总队6月11日发布的数据，2025年5月份，广东居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比下 降0.4%，降幅与上月持平；环比下降0.1%，与上月上涨0.3%相比，涨跌幅差为0.4个百分点。1—5月平 均，广东居民消费价格比上年同期下降0.4%。 受国际原油价格下行、部分行业产能过剩与下游市场需求不足等因素影响，5月份广东工业生产者出厂 价格指数（PPI）环比降幅收窄，同比降幅扩大。 在PPI调查的38个大类行业中，环比指数"6升26降6平"，行业上涨面为15.8%。国际原油价格下行影响国 内相关行业价格下降，石油和天然气开采业价格下降 3.6%，石油煤炭及其他燃料加工业价格下降 3.0%。部分行业产能过剩，市场供大于求，价格下降，非金属矿物制品业价格下降1.0%、电气机械和 器材制造业价格下降0.7%。雨季基建工程、房地产行业推进缓慢，下游市场对钢材需求减少，黑色金 属矿采选业价格下降 4.1%，有色金属矿采选业价格下降1.9%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业价格下降 4.0%。 5月份，受国际油价波动和五一假期结束影响，广东居民消费价格指数（CPI）同 ...

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 3321 字，阅读全文约 11 分钟 前5个月我国货物贸易进出口增长2.5% 2025年5月份居民消费价格同比下降0.1% 2025年5月份工业生产者出厂价格同比下降3.3% 据海关统计，2025年前5个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值17.94万亿元人民币，同比（下同）增长2.5%。其 中，出口10.67万亿元，增长7.2%；进口7.27万亿元，下降3.8%。 5月份，我国货物贸易进出口总值3.81万亿元，增长2.7%。其中，出口2.28万亿元，增长6.3%；进口1.53 万亿元，下降2.1%。 前5个月我国进出口主要特点： 前5个月我国货物贸易进出口增长2.5% 一、一般贸易、加工贸易进出口增长 前5个月，我国一般贸易进出口11.51万亿元，增长0.8%，占我外贸总值的64.2%。其中，出口7.04万亿 元，增长7%；进口4.47万亿元，下降7.8%。同期，加工贸易进出口3.21万亿元，增长6.2%，占17.9%。其中， 出口1.99万亿元，增长4.5%；进口1.22万亿元，增长9.3%。此外，我国以保税物流方式进出口2.54万亿元，增 长5.9%。其中，出口1.05 ...