风险提示： 宏观经济波动加大、行业竞争加剧、食品安全风险。 报告导读： 白酒板块动销和批价上行。大众品板块中零食、乳制品有望迎来春节备货投资 行情。 投资建议： 成长为主线、重视供需出清下的拐点机会。 白酒：春节动销渐起，飞天批价上涨。 本周1月29日白酒板块单日大幅上涨，主要受地产政策、茅台批价、流动性等多重因素催化。据我们观察，茅台价盘 理顺后渠道融合度显著提升，线上i茅台掀起抢购潮，线下经销商出货甚至略快于往年，近期礼赠及饮用需求增加，普飞批价本周一度涨超1700元。展望后 续：1）短期维度，白酒开门红推进中，除强势品牌外多数渠道打款积极性一般，预计动销高峰2月开启，届时若普飞等核心大单品需求持续释放，则有望支 撑价盘，若批价确认企稳，我们认为其对股价的压制将会减轻；2）中期维度，2026年景气修复和库存去化尚需时间，预计酒企通过以价换量或控量的方式维 持渠道韧性，典型的以价换量如高端龙头茅台、五粮液，控量如习酒、郎酒等，5-6月起行业迎来低基数，动销或将逐步企稳，具备较强放量潜力的品牌有望 更快修复，行业预计呈现主动或被动去库之势，为后续发展奠定基础。 大众品：元旦良好人流量利好出行相关食饮需求。 （ ...

库存小幅去化，碳酸锂弱势震荡 市场分析 2026-01-29，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于169200元/吨，收于164820元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.24%。当 日成交量为521334手，持仓量为402347手，前一交易日持仓量410985手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为2460元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单30211手，较上个交易日变化245手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价162000-174000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-4000元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价159000-170000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-4000元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2250美元/吨，较前一日变化-20美元/吨。 碳酸锂昨日整体呈震荡走势，盘中由于库存数据发布显示去化，导致一度翻红，但多空博弈后尾盘依然收跌。近 期交易所为维护市场公平秩序，对碳酸锂品种各类违规行为保持高压态势，一定程度上抑制了行情的急涨急跌。 现货方面，由于下游库存水平较低，前期价格持续走高情况下，现货成交情况较为清淡，但节前存在补库需求， 对价格起到一定的支撑作用。 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-30 3、 宏 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size increased, with improved single - month profitability in December, accelerated inventory destocking, and increased production - sales ratio. The operating pressure may have marginally eased, and the enterprise profit repair trend is initially evident. However, the performance of revenue and profit margin is still divergent, the profit quality is somewhat restricted, and there are also differences among industries, with the mid - upstream performing well and the downstream under pressure. The "anti - involution" measures may have some effects, but the sustainability of profit repair depends on whether policies can stimulate the improvement of terminal demand and drive price stabilization and recovery. The bond market's reaction to the fundamentals may still show the characteristic of "being insensitive to positive news and sensitive to negative news", and the structural highlights of the economic fundamentals may limit the downward space of interest rates. The view of short - term long - bond oscillation is maintained [3][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Event Description - In 2025, the cumulative operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was 139.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1%; the cumulative operating cost was 118.75 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%; the cumulative total profit was 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%; the operating profit margin increased by 0.02 pct to 5.31% compared with the first 11 months. In December, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits increased by 18.4 pct to 5.3% compared with November [6] 3.2 Event Comments - **Profit growth rate recovery and strong seasonality in the month - on - month aspect**: From January to December 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth rate increased by 0.5 pct compared with November. The low - base effect contributed, and the month - on - month growth rate was also at a relatively high level in the same period over the years, indicating the improvement of enterprise profitability. The reasons for the recovery of the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size in December are: active production (the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value rebounded and the capacity utilization rate improved), weakened drag on the price side (the year - on - year decline of PPI narrowed and the production - sales ratio also improved slightly), and the year - on - year growth rate of the operating profit margin turned from negative to positive (an 8.6% year - on - year increase in December, a 22 pct increase compared with the previous month) [9] - **Marginal pressure on revenue and improved profit margin**: In December, the year - on - year revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size was - 3.2%, and the decline increased by 3 pct compared with November. In terms of cost and expenses, the cost per 100 yuan of operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size for the whole year was 85.31 yuan, and the expenses were 8.62 yuan. The total amount, cumulative year - on - year, and month - on - month growth rates all increased compared with January - November. In terms of profit efficiency, the cumulative value of the operating profit margin from January to December increased from the previous 5.29% to 5.31%, but the profit quality needs to be improved due to the year - on - year increase in cost and expenses and the impact of investment income [9] - **Differentiated profit performance**: In December, the non - ferrous and high - tech manufacturing industries performed well, while the downstream was still under pressure. Throughout the year, the black metal industry improved significantly, and the equipment manufacturing industry had a stable growth rate. By industry, the profits of the mid - stream non - ferrous, railway and shipbuilding, and downstream furniture manufacturing industries improved significantly in December. From the perspective of the two - year average growth rate, the profit growth rates of the mining, raw material, and equipment manufacturing industries all rebounded. Among them, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry recorded a profit of 109.83 billion yuan, a three - fold increase compared with the previous year; the mid - stream equipment manufacturing industry provided strong support, driving the profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 2.8 pct throughout the year; the high - tech manufacturing industry had a remarkable growth rate, with the profit of high - tech manufacturing industries above designated size increasing by 13.3% compared with the previous year, 12.7 pct higher than the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size. By business entity, the profit growth rates of small and medium - sized enterprises, foreign - invested and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan - invested enterprises turned from negative to positive, and the profits of joint - stock and state - owned holding enterprises improved significantly [9] - **Both nominal and real inventories decreased, and inventory destocking accelerated**: In December, the year - on - year growth rate of finished product inventories of industrial enterprises was 3.9%, a decrease of 0.7 pct compared with the previous month. After excluding price factors, the real inventory was 5.9% year - on - year, a decrease of 1 pct compared with the previous month. The turnover days of finished products were 19.9 days, slightly lower than the previous month, and inventory turnover accelerated seasonally. By industry, some mid - stream manufacturing and downstream consumer goods industries were still in the process of inventory replenishment, while industries such as black metal and textile were actively destocking, and nearly 20% of industries destocked in December. The inventory - to - sales ratio decreased compared with the previous month. Notably, the production - sales ratio of industrial enterprises rebounded to near the median of the same period in history, and the asset - liability ratio continued to reach a new high in the same period over the years, which may reflect the marginal improvement of enterprise operating pressure [9]

成文日期：20260122 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:棕榈? 研究员：游镇齐（从业资格号：F3012673;投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012990) 棕榈油期货日报 1 期货市场 棕榈油期货主力合约 P2605 收盘价 8,944 元/吨,较前一交易日 上涨 1.59%；开盘价 8,850 元/吨,最高价 8,964元/吨,最低价 8,850 元/吨，成交量 502,993 手，持仓量 467,244 手，成交额 448.37 亿元。 数据来源：wh6，国金期货 1: 棕榈油主力合约分时图 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjqh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 前。 出口数据显著改善：1 月 1 日至 20 日，马来西亚棕榈油出口量 环比增长 8.64%–11.4%,出口回升反映印度、中国等主要进口国节 前备货需求增强、库存去化预期提升。 国内库存高位但边际缓和：截至 2026 年 1 月 21 日，全国棕榈 油商业库存为 77.60 万吨，较前一周微增 0.6 万吨，同比仍高出 31 万吨,但库存增速放缓,叠加进口成本倒挂收窄 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are strong due to capital rotation into the chemical sector and geopolitical tensions. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventories are being depleted. PP supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance activities, while PE faces pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations [1]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, but the basis is weakening, and trading volume is average. The methanol market has weak supply and demand, and the rebound space is restricted by high production. The port inventory is slightly depleted, but MTO demand is weak, suppressing price rebounds [4]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, the natural rubber market has a strong sentiment to rise due to the strong performance of the synthetic rubber market. However, considering the weak demand, the upside is expected to be limited, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but the port inventory is unexpectedly increasing, limiting its self - driving force. Styrene has strong short - term performance due to export - driven inventory reduction, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene is expected to compress [10]. Urea - Urea futures are rising, and the spot market is mixed. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, lacking effective support for price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, with the main contract focusing on the 1760 - 1800 range [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are slightly rebounding, but the spot price is declining. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the upside of futures is expected to be limited. PVC futures are rising, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the upside is also expected to be restricted [13]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. Glass futures are also oscillating, with weak supply - demand during the pre - holiday off - season. Both need to be vigilant against potential price drops [14]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are mainly influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and the US cold wave. Although the cold wave's impact is weakening, geopolitical premiums still support oil prices [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA supply - demand are weakening before the Spring Festival, but have strong support in the second quarter. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Polyester bottle - chip's supply is decreasing, and the price and processing fee will follow the cost [18]. LPG - LPG prices are rising. The upstream refinery operating rate is increasing, while the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The inventory situation is mixed, with the refinery inventory ratio increasing and the port inventory decreasing [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins Price Changes - L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased, with PP2609 rising 1.35% [1]. - Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with PP enterprise inventory dropping 7.85% [1]. - PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, while downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [1]. Methanol Price Changes - MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the basis weakened [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all rose [4]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78%, while port inventory increased by 1.55% [4]. - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, and downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56% [4]. Natural Rubber Price Changes - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices decreased slightly [7]. Production and Operating Rates - November production in some countries decreased, while December domestic tire production and export increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 2.94%, while factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 2.49% [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Price Changes - Upstream crude oil and some raw material prices changed slightly, and styrene and pure benzene prices also had minor fluctuations [10]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain changed [10]. Urea Price Changes - Futures prices rose, and the spot market was mixed [12]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 2.64%, and the demand was weak [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda Price Changes - Caustic soda spot prices declined, and PVC spot and futures prices increased [13]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda supply - demand imbalance persisted, and PVC supply was high with weak demand [13]. Glass - Soda Ash Price Changes - Glass and soda ash futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices were stable [14]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash production was high, and glass production and sales were average during the pre - holiday off - season [14]. Crude Oil Price Changes - Brent and WTI prices decreased slightly, while SC increased by 2.62% [15]. Influencing Factors - Oil prices were affected by geopolitical tensions and the US cold wave [15]. Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain changed to varying degrees [18]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain decreased [18]. LPG Price Changes - LPG futures prices increased, and the basis weakened [19]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery inventory ratio increased, and port inventory decreased. The upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [19].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新大豆及豆粕库存环比下降，考虑 2 月进口预估同比偏低，豆粕预计进入去库阶 | | 豆粕 | | 段。阿根廷大豆地区的干旱天气为价格提供了基本面支撑。巴西产量再度遭到上调， | | ★ | 短线反弹 | 利空市场情绪，上周五豆粕小幅回落。关注后市南美天气情况。可关注逢低企稳短 | | | | 多机会。 | | | 1 | 月菜籽零进口，2-3 月月均进口 12 万吨，远低于去年同期水平。加拿大首批菜籽 | | 菜粕 | | 已经采购，预计 3 月后到港。菜粕现货短期供应偏紧，但消费淡季现货成交清淡。 | | ★ | 止跌反弹 | 中加贸易关系缓解，长期将大幅化解国内进口供应。菜粕近月价格存在支撑，主力 | | | | 及远月看多谨慎对待。 | | 棕榈油 | | 本月前 20 日马棕榈油产量环比大幅下降，马棕榈油出口数据环比虽然增加，但仍有 | | ★ | 短期反弹 1 | 月累库风险，且近期反弹较高，追多谨慎对待。关注 1 月马棕榈油去库情况。 | | 豆油 | | 国内豆油库存阶段性去库开启，但近期价格持续上涨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the apple and red date industries is neutral [4][8] 2. Core Views Apple - The apple futures price closed higher with high - level fluctuations yesterday. The market focuses on the consumption demand side due to low cold - storage inventory and poor overall quality. The current inventory removal pace is slow, but it is expected to speed up in the coming weeks as the Spring Festival is late. The market demand is generally weak, and the market is affected by low - priced fruits like cherries. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking progress and terminal consumption [3] Red Date - The red date futures price fluctuated narrowly yesterday. The acquisition of new dates at the end of the year has accelerated, and the supply has become more abundant. Consumption has entered the peak season, and the high - level inventory has started to decline. The market focuses on terminal consumption. Although the output of red dates in this production season has decreased, the overall supply is still abundant due to the combination of old and new stocks. Attention should be paid to the terminal sales, inventory removal progress, buyers' mentality, and the impact of weather on logistics before the Spring Festival [7] 3. Summary by Directory Apple Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2605 contract yesterday was 9489 yuan/ton, a +71 yuan/ton change from the previous day, with a +0.75% change. Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Shandong Qixia was 4.00 yuan/jin, a - 0.10 yuan/jin change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1489, a - 271 change from the previous day. The price of 70 and above semi - commodity late Fuji in Shaanxi Luochuan was 4.20 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis AP05 was - 1089, a - 71 change from the previous day [1] Recent Market Information - The market in apple - producing areas is generally stable. Individual areas see a slight price decline in farmers' apples. The Spring Festival stocking has started, and the overall transaction has improved slightly. The sales of farmers' apples have increased but are still limited. In Shaanxi, the sales of farmers' apples are mainly small - quantity extreme - quality goods, and merchants mainly use their own inventory. In Gansu, merchants purchase farmers' apples as needed, and the packaging and shipping are stable with good sales. In Shandong, the transaction is average, and the packaging of gift boxes has started sporadically. The sales are mainly 75 and third - grade apples, with limited transactions. The apple sales in the consumer market are slow, and the transit warehouses are seriously overstocked. There may be a price decline for medium - quality apples as the sales of farmers' apples increase [2] Market Analysis - The apple futures price closed higher with high - level fluctuations. The market is concerned about the consumption demand side due to low cold - storage inventory and poor overall quality. The current inventory removal pace is slow, but it is expected to speed up in the coming weeks as the Spring Festival is late. The market demand is generally weak, and merchants mainly pick up their own goods and purchase as needed. The market is significantly affected by low - priced fruits like cherries. Attention should be paid to the Spring Festival stocking progress and terminal consumption [3] Red Date Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2605 contract yesterday was 8745 yuan/ton, a +5 yuan/ton change from the previous day, with a +0.06% change. Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 8.00 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis CJ05 was - 745, a - 5 change from the previous day [5] Recent Market Information - In the 2025 production season, the acquisition price of Xinjiang grey dates ranges from 5.00 - 6.50 yuan/kg. The acquisition price varies by region, and the principle of high - quality high - price is maintained. On January 21, there were 7 trucks of goods arriving at the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, mainly sub - grade dates. Local processing plants mainly sold their own processed goods, and sellers actively sold their goods while buyers purchased as needed, with average transactions. In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 5 trucks of goods arrived, and the price remained stable, with 1 - 2 trucks of goods sold. In the Hebei consumer market, processing plants mainly traded their own goods, and buyers purchased as needed. The price is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term as logistics is expected to stop around the 15th day of the twelfth lunar month [6] Market Analysis - The red date futures price fluctuated narrowly. The acquisition of new dates at the end of the year has accelerated, and the supply has become more abundant. Consumption has entered the peak season, and the high - level inventory has started to decline. The market focuses on terminal consumption. Although the output of red dates in this production season has decreased, the overall supply is still abundant due to the combination of old and new stocks. Attention should be paid to the terminal sales, inventory removal progress, buyers' mentality, and the impact of weather on logistics before the Spring Festival [7]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 1数据日报 国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2026/1/23 | 指标 | | 1月22日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | ===== 16/17 | == | == | ** | == | | | 大连 | 452 | -43 | 2500 2000 | ===== 21/22 | ====== 22/23 | == | 24/25 | 25/26 | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 日照 | | | 1000 500 | | | | | | | | 天津 | 392 | -43 | 1500 | | | | | | | | | 332 | -63 | | | | | | | | | 张家港 | 312 | -43 | -500 | | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | | | 05/21 06 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-23 双硅同步上涨，库存维持高位 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-22，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8770元/吨，最后收于8825元/吨，较前一日结算变化（90） 元/吨，变化（1.03）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓228488手，2026-01-21仓单总数为11955手，较前一日变化 384手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421#硅在9500-9800 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。昆明、黄埔港、西北、天 津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计1月15日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.5万吨，较上周增加0.54%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13800-14000（0）元/吨。本周多晶硅维持减产，对工业硅需求支撑有限， 但短期光伏抢出口显现易拉动工业硅需求。有机硅维持错峰减排政策，持续自律减产，对工业硅需求支撑同样乏 力。铝合金下游需求呈现边际走弱，预 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 师橙 工业硅： 市场分析 2026-01-22，工业硅期货价格震荡上涨，主力合约2605开于8770元/吨，最后收于8825元/吨，较前一日 结算变化（90）元/吨，变化（1.03）%。截止收盘，2605主力合约持仓228488手，2026-01-21仓单总数 为11955手，较前一日变化384手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格基本持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9200-9300（0）元/吨；421# 硅在9500-9800（0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8600-8800（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8600-8800（0）元/吨。 昆明、黄埔港、西北、天津、新疆、四川、上海地区硅价持平，97硅价格持稳。 SMM统计1月15日工业硅主要地区社会库存共55.5万吨，较上周增加0.54%。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价13800-14000（0）元/吨。本周多晶硅维持减产，对工业硅需求 支撑有限，但短期光伏抢出口显现易拉动工业硅需求。有机硅维持错峰减排政策，持续自律减产，对工 业硅需求支撑同样乏力。铝合金下游 ...