1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA currently estimates the US soybean stock-to-consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%. The expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may have room for downward adjustment, while the export forecast has room for upward adjustment. The supply-demand balance of US soybeans is expected to be tight. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply-demand report next week [8][11]. - As of November 1st, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 47.1%, compared with 34.4% last week, 53.3% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 54.7%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry conditions expected in the southern Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul in the next few weeks and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [10]. - In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start reducing inventory, but the supply of domestic soybean meal in the fourth quarter is still expected to be abundant. The purchasing progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [11]. - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, with no obvious reduction in production capacity, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, but recent downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [11]. - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and inventory is expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level. Due to a significant decline in crushing last week, the domestic soybean meal inventory decreased significantly as of last week. In the short term, the domestic futures market is expected to fluctuate strongly following the US market. Attention should be paid to the USDA report data this week and weather changes in South America [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang on November 10th was -3, a decrease of 5 compared to the previous value. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot in different regions showed different changes, such as -5 in Tianjin, 5 in Rizhao, -5 in Zhangjiagang, 15 in Dongguan, -5 in Zhanjiang, and 15 in Fangcheng [6]. - The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong on November 10th was 105, an increase of 14 compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Spread Data - The RM1 - 5 spread was 99, a decrease of 24 compared to the previous value. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 536, an increase of 17 compared to the previous value [7]. 3.3 Premium and Profit Data - The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1175, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 145 cents per bushel, with no change. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit was - 86 yuan per ton [7]. 3.4 Inventory Data - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels, and inventory is expected to start decreasing in November. Feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days have dropped to a low level [11]. 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The USDA's 25/26 US soybean supply - demand balance is expected to be tight. The Brazilian soybean planting rate is lower than the same period last year and the five - year average, and attention should be paid to weather conditions. The purchasing progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [8][10][11]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may affect long - term supply. Recent downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, and提货 performance has declined [11].

新华财经北京11月11日电（吴郑思） 短期碳酸锂的强需求逻辑难被证伪，驱动上周强势拉涨的碳酸锂 10日跳空高开并继续大幅拉涨，单日涨超7%。11日碳酸锂继续惯性走高，盘中高点触及88000元/吨上 方，继续逼近90100元／吨的年度高点。近五个交易日碳酸锂累计最大涨幅超10000元。 碳酸锂下游乃至终端行业的数据，也印证了需求的强劲表现。作为动力需求的典型代表，新能源汽车的 产销数据被普遍作为具有代表性的指标。乘联分会的最新数据显示，10月全国新能源乘用车批发销量达 到162.1万辆，同比增长18.5%，环比增长8.5%；同期新能源乘用车生产达到165.7万辆，同比增长 19.8%，环比增长10.2%。 不仅新能源汽车维持强劲增长势头，储能需求旺盛带动相关企业订单大增，更是成为近期市场关注的焦 点。受益于国内政策的积极推动、全球性需求的爆发，储能成为锂电需求新的增长极，甚至被视为推动 碳酸锂行业"冬去春来"的重要力量。 据SMM统计，今年前三季度，中国动力电芯累计产量达861.04GWh，同比增长45.6%。同期储能电芯产 量为355.1GWh，同比增长57.5%。产量激增的背后也受到订单需求的有力支持，有头 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market has short - term support, but there are still supply - demand surplus pressures in Q4 and Q1 of next year. Consider short - side strategies after the oil price rebounds again [2]. - Precious metals may continue to build a high - level shock platform due to the lack of strong drivers [3]. - The upward momentum of the copper market in the short - term is decreasing. Consider buying put at - the - money/one - strike out - of - the - money options and selling call options with an execution price of 90,000 to reduce costs [4]. - The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro sentiment, with limited fundamental resonance. Be vigilant of capital turning [5]. - Other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc. also have their own market characteristics and investment suggestions based on supply - demand, inventory, and other factors [8][9][10]. Summary by Catalog Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspending production increase in Q1 of next year boosts market confidence. US government shutdown negotiation progress and geopolitical factors also affect the market. There is short - term support, but supply - demand surplus pressure remains [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply tends to be loose, while low - sulfur fuel oil has short - term positive sentiment but weak medium - term upward support [22]. - **Asphalt**: Demand is weaker than expected, and social inventory has turned from lower to higher year - on - year. The market is bearish, and the price continues to decline [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamental conditions have improved marginally, providing support for the LPG price [24]. Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: Temporarily lack strong drivers and may continue high - level shock [3]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The upward momentum is decreasing, and inventory has decreased. Consider short - term trading strategies [4]. - **Aluminum**: Narrow - range fluctuation, with macro - led strong sentiment and limited fundamental resonance [5]. - **Zinc**: The export window is open, and low inventory supports the external market. The domestic market is expected to follow the external market to rise [8]. - **Lead**: High - level shock, with the far - month contract's center of gravity expected to move up [9]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The nickel market is weak, and the stainless - steel market is sluggish [10]. - **Tin**: Supply is constrained, but demand is weak. Consider short - selling in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - **Alumina**: Supply surplus persists, and the price is weak with limited rebound space [7]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Follows the aluminum price and has no independent market for now [6]. Chemical Commodities - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price has risen significantly, and the market sentiment has improved. It is expected to be strong in the short - term [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is expected to shrink more than demand, and the inventory may decrease. The futures price is expected to be strong in the short - term [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The price will continue to fluctuate due to the synchronous contraction of supply and demand [14]. - **Urea**: The upward momentum is insufficient, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range with a slightly upward price center [25]. - **Methanol**: It may continue to be weak in the short - term, but is easily affected by positive news due to low valuation [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is in a narrow - range shock at a low level. Pay attention to the port inventory build - up rhythm [27]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance is tight, but the market is worried about the long - term situation, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The demand has improved temporarily, but the overall supply is loose, and the price is under pressure [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC has high supply and weak demand, and may run at a low level. Caustic soda is in a weak operation [30]. - **PX & PTA**: PX supply has recovered, and PTA has improved slightly. There is uncertainty in the short - to - medium - term, so it is advisable to wait and see [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply growth pressure is large, and the demand is expected to weaken in the medium - term. Adopt a bearish view [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber has a good spot pattern but is affected by raw material price increases. Bottle - chip demand is weakening [33]. Building Materials Commodities - **Glass**: The price is falling, and the cost has increased. The profit has narrowed, and the daily melting has decreased. Pay attention to the end - of - year rush - work situation [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The price is in a strong shock in the short - term, but a short - selling strategy is recommended in the long - term due to high supply pressure [36]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Soybean supply is basically sufficient in Q4, and there may be inventory reduction in Q1 of next year. Pay attention to long - buying opportunities after Sino - US trade eases [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Soybean oil is stronger than palm oil. Palm oil has high - inventory pressure in the short - term [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be poor. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for domestic rapeseed products [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price is in a high - level shock. Pay attention to domestic soybean policies and market sentiment [40]. - **Corn**: The futures price is rebounding at the bottom, but the supply is still loose in the future [41]. - **Pork**: The price may have a seasonal rebound in the short - term, but there is a high probability of a second bottom - probing in H1 of next year [42]. - **Egg**: Try short - selling at high prices and observe the spot market [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has risen. The Zhengzhou cotton price is in a shock. Pay attention to the US cotton export data [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and pay attention to the sugar production forecast in Guangxi for the new season [45]. - **Apple**: The price is in a wide - range shock. Adopt a bearish strategy due to inventory concerns [46]. - **Timber**: The price is in a weak operation. Low inventory provides support, and adopt a wait - and - see strategy [47]. - **Pulp**: The price has risen. The inventory has decreased, and the valuation is low. Consider buying at low prices [48]. Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes are differentiated, and futures contracts have all risen. Pay attention to the RMB exchange rate and domestic policies [49]. - **Treasury Bond**: The futures price is rising in a shock. The yield curve steepening may come to an end [50].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the current situation remains poor, with the shutdown in Iran slower than expected, high imports likely in November, difficulties in resolving the 01 contract issues, expected resolution of port sanctions before the end of gas restrictions, difficult inventory reduction, limited upward momentum, and the downward space depending on the inland situation. Recent coal price increases do not affect profits [2]. - For polyethylene, the overall inventory is neutral, the 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, the external market in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia is stable, the import profit is around -200 with no further increase for now, the non - standard HD injection price is stable, other price differences are volatile, LD is weakening, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. - For polypropylene, the upstream and middle - stream inventories are decreasing. The basis is -60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, the import profit is around -700, exports are good this year, the PDH profit is around -400, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure in the context of over - capacity, which can be alleviated if exports continue to increase or PDH device maintenance is extensive [6]. - For PVC, the basis remains at 01 - 270, the downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong, the mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating, attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, the recent export orders have slightly decreased, the cost is stable, and attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up [6]. Summary by Product Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, the daily change of Jiangsu spot price was 4, the daily change of South China spot price was 5, the daily change of Lunan converted to the market price was 12, and the daily change of CFR China was -1 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The actual situation is poor, the shutdown in Iran is slower than expected, high imports are expected in November, the 01 contract issue is difficult to resolve, port sanctions are expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, inventory reduction is difficult, and the upward momentum is limited [2]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained at 740, the daily change of North China LL price was 10, and the daily change of the import profit was -1 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The overall inventory is neutral, the 09 basis is around -110 in North China and -50 in East China, the external market is stable, the import profit is around -200, domestic linear production has decreased recently, and attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and new device commissioning [6]. Polypropylene - **Price Data**: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shandong propylene price decreased by 50, the daily change of East China PP price was 40, and the daily change of the主力期货 price was -7 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The upstream and middle - stream inventories are decreasing, the basis is -60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, the import profit is around -700, exports are good this year, the PDH profit is around -400, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the 01 contract is under moderate to excessive pressure [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shandong caustic soda price increased by 5, the daily change of the East China电石 - based price was 5, and the basis remained at -70 [6]. - **Market Situation**: The basis remains at 01 - 270, the downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, the mid - upstream inventory is continuously accumulating, attention should be paid to commissioning and export sustainability in Q4, and the recent export orders have slightly decreased [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean purchase and shipping profit is poor, the domestic market valuation is low. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost is expected to rise, and the futures market is expected to rebound to repair the crushing profit, showing a volatile and strong trend. However, the expected loose global soybean supply pattern limits the rebound height of the futures market. Attention should be paid to the subsequent Sino - US policies, USDA report adjustments, and the driving evolution brought by South American weather changes [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: On November 6th, the basis in Dalian was 82, up 55; in Tianjin it was 12, up 25; in Rizhao it was - 8, up 45; in Zhangjiagang it was - 8, up 35; in Dongguan it was - 48, up 25; in Zhanjiang it was - 18, up 35; in Fangcheng it was - 28, up 25 [6]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: In Guangdong, it was 76, down 34 on November 6th [6]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread in Guangdong was 519, down 17; the futures spread of the main contract was 457, up 45 [7]. 3.2 Supply Situation - **US Soybeans**: The USDA currently estimates the US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio for the 25/26 season at 6.9%, with the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre potentially being lowered and the export expectation having room for an upward adjustment. The US soybean supply - demand balance is expected to be tight [7]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of October 25th, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 34.4%, compared to 21.1% last week, 37.7% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 42.5%. The southern part of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil is expected to be relatively dry, and attention should be paid to the impact of the La Nina weather pattern [8]. - **Domestic Supply**: In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The far - month purchase and shipping progress is slow [9]. 3.3 Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry**: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory levels, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the far - month supply [9]. - **Downstream Transactions**: Recently, the downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, but the pick - up performance has been good [9]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, and it is expected that the inventory will start to decline in November. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The recent inventory has been continuously decreasing, providing some support to the market. However, when the price reaches 80,000 yuan/ton, the upstream has a strong willingness to hedge. The resumption of production at the mine end is in progress. Attention should be paid to the inflection points of consumption and inventory. If consumption weakens and the mine resumes production, the inventory may shift from destocking to stockpiling, and the market may decline at that time [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 6, 2025, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2601 was 79,480 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 80,500 yuan/ton, a 1.95% change from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 582,033 lots, and the open interest was 471,983 lots, compared with 453,260 lots in the previous trading day. The current basis was 1,300 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 26,420 lots, a decrease of 410 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,500 - 82,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 77,800 - 78,600 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 925 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market transactions were slightly dull, and downstream material enterprises maintained the rhythm of on - demand procurement [1]. - The overall operating rate of lithium salt plants remained high, with the operating rates of both the spodumene and salt lake ends above 60%. It is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in November can maintain the same level as in October [1]. - In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector (both commercial and passenger vehicles) is growing rapidly, and the energy storage market has strong supply and demand, with supply remaining tight [1]. - This week, the demand for power batteries continued to operate at a high level, and the cell prices were relatively stable. In the passenger vehicle sector, domestic terminal sales remained high, and some mainstream car companies increased promotion and production scheduling, driving a steady increase in power battery installation demand. In the commercial vehicle sector, affected by the expected vehicle purchase tax halving policy next year, some demand was advanced to the fourth quarter of this year, driving a significant increase in power battery orders [2]. - According to the latest weekly statistics, the weekly production increased by 454 tons to 21,534 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 3,405 tons to 123,753 tons. The inventories of smelters, downstream, and intermediate links all decreased, indicating strong support from the consumer end recently [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see. Pay attention to the inflection points of inventory and consumption and the resumption of production at the mine end, and choose the opportunity to sell and hedge at high prices [3]. - Inter - period: No strategy is provided. - Cross - variety: No strategy is provided. - Spot - futures: No strategy is provided. - Options: No strategy is provided.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the textile and apparel industry [6] Core Insights - The textile and apparel industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with the jewelry sector showing better growth compared to clothing [14] - The domestic sportswear market is expected to maintain long-term growth resilience despite short-term fluctuations in offline sales [1] - The report highlights the importance of inventory management and the impact of promotional events on sales performance [1][2][26] Summary by Sections 1. Sports Footwear and Apparel - The sports footwear and apparel sector showed weaker performance in Q3 2025 compared to Q2 but still outperformed the overall apparel market [1] - Offline sales for domestic sports brands remain weak, while e-commerce channels are performing better [1] - Inventory levels for domestic sports brands increased in Q3 due to preparations for the National Day holiday and Double Eleven sales [1] - Adidas reported a 6% year-on-year revenue growth in Greater China for Q3 2025, while Nike's sales in the region declined [1][18] 2. Brand Apparel - The brand apparel sector showed improvement in Q3 2025, with revenue and net profit growth of 3.1% and 23.2% respectively, driven by a low base effect [2] - The home textile segment benefited from product updates, while the fashion apparel category faced weak demand due to low consumer confidence [2] - The report anticipates continued reasonable expense management and stable profit growth for some companies in Q4 2025 [2] 3. Textile Manufacturing - Revenue for key textile manufacturing companies remained relatively stable, with a slight decline in net profit [3] - Companies with different customer structures showed varied performance, with some like Huayi Group achieving a 7% revenue growth by expanding their client base [3] - The report suggests that as inventory levels normalize, there may be a recovery in orders from upstream manufacturing companies [3] 4. Gold and Jewelry - The gold and jewelry sector experienced performance differentiation, with retail sales of gold and silver jewelry increasing by 11.5% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2025 [4] - Companies with fewer stores or a direct sales model reported excellent revenue growth, with some like Chao Hong Ji and Man Ka Long achieving revenue increases of 28.3% and 29.3% respectively [4] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product and channel capabilities in the jewelry sector [4] 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market positioning, including Shenzhou International, Anta Sports, Li Ning, and Chow Tai Fook, highlighting their respective PE ratios for 2025 [4][9]

Core Insights - The Guizhou Provincial Department of Commerce is soliciting opinions on a draft guideline aimed at transforming the "selling liquor" model into a "selling lifestyle" approach, emphasizing the integration of the liquor industry with tourism and other sectors [1] - Century Securities indicates that the adjustment period in the liquor industry is accelerating, with a notable divergence in company performance as the industry continues to face weak consumption recovery [1] - Open Source Securities notes a significant decline in revenue growth for the liquor industry in Q3 2025 compared to Q2, attributing this to weak market demand and companies prioritizing channel order over annual targets [2] Group 1: Industry Trends - The "liquor+" industry integration action is being implemented to promote the development of liquor-related tourism, dining, and retail, expanding the industry's boundaries [1] - The adjustment phase in the liquor industry is leading to a faster clearing process, with small and medium-sized enterprises struggling due to high inventory and insufficient recovery in local consumption scenarios [1] - The high-end liquor segment is also experiencing a reporting clearing rhythm, indicating that even resilient brands are not immune to the current market pressures [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall price range of liquor is under pressure, with companies facing challenges in managing inventory and pricing strategies [1] - The demand for liquor is approaching a bottom range, with the impact of alcohol bans diminishing and companies proactively reducing supply to alleviate channel pressures [2] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve in the medium to long term, with rising household income and consumer willingness likely to support a gradual recovery in liquor consumption [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, port prices are falling rapidly, the supply - demand pattern is "supply increasing and demand weakening", inventory is difficult to deplete. With the unfulfilled expectation of overseas winter production cuts, there is a risk of further decline in the future. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. - For urea, supply and demand have both increased, the market is in a relatively loose pattern, and there is limited upward momentum. Given the low absolute price, the downside space is also limited. It's recommended to wait and see [9]. - For rubber, the price shows signs of stabilization. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is suggested, and partial position building for the hedge strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [13]. - For PVC, the enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is strong and demand is weak, export expectations are weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It's advisable to look for shorting opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is declining, and the price may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, the global monetary policy is loose, the inventory is declining from a high level, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [21]. - For polypropylene, supply pressure is high, demand is in a seasonal rebound, and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the market [24]. - For PX, the load is high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and the PXN spread is expected to be under pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. - For PTA, supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there is a chance of processing fee repair. It's recommended to pay attention to this opportunity [29]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is in the process of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to short on rallies [31]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed up 8.50 yuan/barrel, a 1.85% increase, at 467.90 yuan/barrel. European ARA weekly data showed that gasoline inventory decreased by 0.68 million barrels to 7.99 million barrels, a 7.80% decline; diesel inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 16.94 million barrels, a 5.04% increase; overall refined oil inventory decreased by 0.29 million barrels to 43.54 million barrels, a 0.66% decline [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang decreased by 57 yuan, Inner Mongolia by 15 yuan, and southern Shandong by 20 yuan. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 37 yuan to 2143 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 43 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 16 yuan to - 96 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Port prices are falling rapidly, the supply - demand pattern is "supply increasing and demand weakening", inventory is difficult to deplete. With the unfulfilled expectation of overseas winter production cuts, there is a risk of further decline in the future. It's recommended to wait and see [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei decreased. The 01 contract on the futures market decreased by 2 yuan to 1623 yuan, with a basis of - 73 yuan. The 1 - 5 spread was - 8 yuan, reporting - 86 yuan [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply and demand have both increased, the market is in a relatively loose pattern, and there is limited upward momentum. Given the low absolute price, the downside space is also limited. It's recommended to wait and see [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price is near the starting point and shows signs of stabilization. Bulls expect an increase due to seasonal and demand factors, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of October 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week but down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a 1% decline. Spot prices of some rubber products decreased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The price shows signs of stabilization. Short - term long trading with quick entry and exit is suggested, and partial position building for the hedge strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 is recommended [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 21 yuan to 4680 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4570 yuan/ton, a 40 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 110 yuan, a 19 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 yuan, a 10 - yuan decrease. The overall PVC operating rate was 78.3%, a 1.7% increase; the demand - side downstream operating rate was 50.5%, a 0.7% increase. Factory inventory was 33.8 tons, an increase of 0.4 tons; social inventory was 103 tons, a decrease of 0.5 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, supply is strong and demand is weak, export expectations are weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. It's advisable to look for shorting opportunities on rallies in the medium - term [14][15]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene decreased, and the basis narrowed. The spot price of styrene increased, while the futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate was 66.72%, a 2.53% decline; the three - S weighted operating rate on the demand side was 42.09%, a 0.68% decline. Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.95 tons to 19.30 tons [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The BZN spread is at a relatively low level and has room for upward repair. The port inventory of styrene is declining, and the price may stop falling temporarily [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6888 yuan/ton, a 11 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 7010 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 122 yuan, a 11 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decline. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 1.49 tons to 51.46 tons, and trader inventory decreased by 0.04 tons to 5.00 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, a 0.83% increase [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The global monetary policy is loose, the inventory is declining from a high level, and the price may remain in a low - level oscillation [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6576 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan decrease; the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 64 yuan, a 14 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.02 tons to 63.85 tons, trader inventory decreased by 1.86 tons to 22.00 tons, and port inventory decreased by 0.11 tons to 6.68 tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply pressure is high, demand is in a seasonal rebound, and the overall inventory pressure is high. The high number of warehouse receipts and supply - surplus pattern on the cost side suppress the market [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract increased by 22 yuan to 6640 yuan. PX CFR decreased by 1 dollar to 819 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 87%, a 1.1% increase; the Asian load was 78.1%, a 0.4% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices had restarts or maintenance. PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decrease. In October, South Korea's PX exports to China were 42.6 tons, a 4.7 - ton increase year - on - year. In late September, inventory was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase month - on - month. The PXN was 240 dollars, a 4 - dollar decrease; the naphtha crack spread was 107 dollars, a 4 - dollar increase [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The load is high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and the PXN spread is expected to be under pressure in November. It's recommended to wait and see [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract increased by 10 yuan to 4596 yuan. The East China spot price increased by 25 yuan/ton to 4535 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan, a 2 - yuan decrease. The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decrease; the downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. On October 31, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 220.7 tons, a 0.6 - ton increase. The spot processing fee increased by 32 yuan to 147 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 5 yuan to 240 yuan [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply maintenance is expected to increase in November, and there is a chance of processing fee repair. It's recommended to pay attention to this opportunity [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 48 yuan to 3970 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 38 yuan to 4068 yuan. The basis was 76 yuan, a 5 - yuan decrease; the 1 - 5 spread was - 79 yuan, a 7 - yuan decrease. The ethylene glycol load was 76.2%, a 2.9% increase; the downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The import arrival forecast was 19.8 tons, and port inventory increased by 3.9 tons to 56.2 tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 723 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 516 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 628 yuan [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is high, imports are increasing, and the port is in the process of inventory accumulation. It's recommended to short on rallies [31].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on November 3, 2025. Some commodities like rapeseed meal and SC crude oil rose, while others such as BR rubber and methanol declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand fundamentals and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to various factors such as supply - side changes, demand fluctuations, and geopolitical events [6][7]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a) Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of the close on November 3, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Rapeseed meal rose over 4%, and many commodities including SC crude oil and LU fuel oil rose over 1%. On the other hand, BR rubber fell over 3%, and methanol and soda ash fell over 2%. In the stock index futures and bond futures markets, there were also different degrees of rise and fall. In terms of capital flow, some contracts like Shanghai copper 2512 had capital inflows, while others such as Shanghai gold 2512 had capital outflows [6][7]. b) Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper opened flat and closed higher. The shortage of copper concentrate and production cuts in the smelting end make copper production tend to decline. Although the short - term price was affected by the Fed's statement and domestic PMI data, the long - term trend is still strong [9][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened low and moved high, with prices in a narrow - range shock. The supply side is growing moderately, and the demand side is strong. The inventory has been continuously reduced, indicating a tight supply - demand pattern. Future attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the upstream [12]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to increase production in December, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter but reduce it in the first quarter of next year. The demand peak season has ended, and the market is worried about demand. Although the supply is in an oversupply pattern, factors such as the US sanctions on Russian oil companies and the military confrontation between the US and Venezuela limit Russian oil exports. The price is expected to fluctuate in the near future [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply side has a slight reduction in production, and the downstream demand is affected by funds and weather. The inventory is at a low level. Considering the supply - demand situation and the trend of crude oil prices, it is recommended to cautiously observe the asphalt futures price [15]. - **PP**: The downstream start - up rate is at a low level, and the supply side has new production capacity and some device overhauls. The cost is affected by crude oil price fluctuations. The demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near future [17]. - **Plastic**: The start - up rate is at a neutral level, and the downstream demand is affected by the season. There is new production capacity on the supply side. Although the demand in the peak season is not as good as expected, the future demand of agricultural film may bring some support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [18][19]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price is stable. The supply side has an increase in start - up rate, and the downstream start - up rate is still at a low level. The export is expected to weaken, and the inventory pressure is still large. Considering various factors, it is expected to fluctuate in the near future [20]. - **Coking Coal**: The price opened low and closed high with a decline. The supply is tight, and the inventory is being transferred downward. The profit of coke enterprises is negative, and the demand of steel mills is expected to recover. The supply - demand balance pattern is maintained, and the upward trend remains unchanged [21][22]. - **Urea**: It opened low and fluctuated weakly. The production has recovered rapidly, and the cost is supported by coal prices. The downstream demand is mainly for wheat fertilizer and compound fertilizer winter storage, and the inventory is in the process of de - stocking but still in the accumulation cycle. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [23].