Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference may continue to rise after the positive signal from the Sino-US presidential call, and the stock index has a clear upward trend in shock, but short - term upward breakthrough needs further accumulation of capital and policy benefits [1]. - The central bank's intention to protect liquidity is clear, the short - end expectation of bonds has improved, but the long - end is weak, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend; silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio [4]. - Copper price is affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, and is in an interval shock [4]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory [4]. - Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. - Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - Metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock, and some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. - Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. - Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The A - share market has been strengthening this week, with trading volume increasing. The stock index is in a shock - upward trend, but short - term breakthrough needs more favorable factors [1]. Treasury Bond - The performance of treasury bonds was differentiated yesterday, with the long - end weak and the short - end strong. The central bank's operation affects market expectations, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. Precious Metals - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend. Silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio, and one can hold short - position out - of - the - money put options [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, copper price is in an interval shock [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory. Aluminum has supply constraints but demand uncertainty [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium**: Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - **Metal Silicon**: The metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - **PTA**: PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. Black Building Materials - **Steel and Ore**: The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock. Some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - **Coal and Coke**: Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - **Rubber**: Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: Iran's low methanol shipments may lead to inventory reaching a seasonal low by the end of April. If there is an unexpected supply gap in May, low inventory levels will provide a safety margin for long - positions [1]. - **Plastic (Polyethylene)**: Overall polyethylene inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is around +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400 with no further increase. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [6]. - **PP (Polypropylene)**: Polypropylene inventory has increased in upstream and mid - stream. The 05 contract may face pressure under over - capacity. Pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH devices [6]. - **PVC**: The PVC basis has strengthened. Mid - upstream inventory is decreasing, and spring maintenance may bring the operating rate to 75%. Attention should be paid to export, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [9]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of Jiangsu spot decreased from 2440 to 2445, with a daily decrease of -8 on May 6. The import profit remained at 218, and the main contract basis increased from 30 to 175 [1]. - **Viewpoint**: Due to low shipments from Iran, inventory is expected to reach a seasonal low at the end of April. In May, inventory may accumulate, but low inventory at the end of April will still be a trading factor [1]. Plastic (Polyethylene) - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of North China LL decreased from 7330 to 7230, with a daily decrease of -70 on May 6. The main contract futures price decreased from 7150 to 6987, and the basis increased from 190 to 260 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Overall inventory is neutral. The 05 basis is around +300 in North and East China. Import profit is around -400. Attention should be paid to US quotes and new device commissioning [6]. PP (Polypropylene) - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of East China PP decreased from 7180 to 7125, with a daily decrease of -30 on May 6. The main contract futures price decreased from 7097 to 6995, and the basis increased from 70 to 110 [6]. - **Viewpoint**: Upstream and mid - stream inventory has increased. The 05 contract may face pressure under over - capacity. Pressure relief requires increased exports or monthly maintenance of 2 million tons of PDH devices [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From April 25 to May 6, the price of calcium carbide method in East China decreased from 4850 to 4740, with a daily decrease of -60 on May 6. The basis increased from -180 to -170 [8][9]. - **Viewpoint**: The basis has strengthened. Mid - upstream inventory is decreasing, and spring maintenance may bring the operating rate to 75%. Attention should be paid to export, coal prices, housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [9].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping below 10,000 yuan per ton and reaching a recent low of 9,975 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.84% decrease [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is facing an increase in production as major enterprises resume operations after maintenance, leading to rising supply pressure [1] - Demand remains weak, with organic silicon manufacturers implementing maintenance and production cuts, while polysilicon producers are operating at 30-40% capacity, limiting demand growth for industrial silicon [1][2] - Overall demand for industrial silicon has not shown significant growth, providing limited support for prices [1] Inventory and Cost Factors - Inventory levels are high, exceeding 900,000 tons, with expectations of continued accumulation due to increased supply and stagnant demand, which exerts downward pressure on prices [2] - The cost of raw materials, such as silicon coal, has decreased, reducing the cost support for industrial silicon, leading to potential losses for producers in the southwest region [2] - Despite the current price drop, which has breached some companies' cost lines, the potential for further significant declines is limited, with prices expected to remain within a low range in the short term [2]