Group 1: Macroeconomic Impact - The U.S. plans to increase tariffs on imported steel from 25% to 50%, prompting the EU to prepare countermeasures [1] - The geopolitical situation escalates as Ukraine reportedly destroys 41 Russian strategic bombers, raising market risk aversion [1] - WTI crude oil futures rose by 2.85%, while COMEX gold and silver futures increased by 2.74% and 5.76%, respectively [1] Group 2: Automotive Industry - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) advocates for fair competition principles among automotive companies to prevent market monopolization [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) emphasizes the need to address "involution" competition in the automotive sector to optimize industry structure [2] Group 3: Cryptocurrency and Digital Finance - Hong Kong's Stablecoin Regulation officially becomes law, leading to a significant rise in cryptocurrency-related stocks [3] - Notable stock increases include a 64% rise for LianLian Digital and over 41% for OKLink, indicating a positive market sentiment towards digital finance [3] Group 4: Strategic Metals and AI Development - Domestic breakthroughs in AI models and computing power are expected to drive the development of the AI industry and related sectors [10] - The military drone sector is anticipated to grow significantly due to the increasing importance of drones in modern warfare [11] - Recent actions against illegal outflow of strategic minerals are expected to support the prices of strategic metals, with a focus on rare earth elements [12]

Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide investment ratings for the industry sectors discussed. Core Insights - The industrial metals sector is experiencing an upward turning point in market conditions, particularly for copper and aluminum, driven by easing trade tensions between the US and China [13]. - Precious metals, particularly gold, are facing downward pressure due to a stronger US dollar and reduced appeal as a safe-haven asset amid improving trade relations [15]. - The rare earth sector is witnessing a simultaneous increase in both domestic and international prices, driven by export controls and a recovering market sentiment [32]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Bulk and Precious Metals Market - Copper prices increased slightly, with LME copper at $9,440.00 per ton and Shanghai copper at ¥78,100 per ton. A notable rise in copper inventory was observed, ending a ten-week decline, attributed to weakened downstream demand [13]. - Aluminum prices rose by 2.75% to $2,484.50 per ton, with domestic inventories remaining low despite a slight decrease in stock levels [14]. - Gold prices fell by 1.13% to $3,205.30 per ounce, influenced by a stronger dollar and easing trade tensions between the US and China [15]. 2. Updates on Bulk and Precious Metals Fundamentals 2.1 Copper - The report highlights a significant increase in copper inventory, reaching 132,000 tons, marking a shift in market dynamics due to reduced demand [13]. - The processing fee for imported copper concentrate has dropped to -$43.05 per ton, indicating pressure on the supply side [13]. 2.2 Aluminum - Domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 581,000 tons, remaining at a near three-year low, while the cost of prebaked anodes increased slightly [14]. - The report notes that the Guinean government has revoked mining licenses for over 40 companies, impacting aluminum ore production capacity [14]. 2.3 Precious Metals - The report discusses the impact of US-China trade negotiations on gold prices, with a significant reduction in SPDR gold holdings [15]. - Economic indicators such as the US CPI and PPI suggest a cooling inflation environment, which may influence future monetary policy [15]. 3. Overview of Minor Metals and Rare Earths Market - The rare earth market is experiencing price increases, particularly for dysprosium and terbium, driven by export controls and a recovering market sentiment [32]. - The antimony market is expected to see price recovery due to supply disruptions from Myanmar and ongoing anti-smuggling efforts in China [33]. - Tin prices have risen, supported by positive expectations from US-China trade negotiations, despite some production concerns [35]. 4. Updates on Minor Metals and Rare Earths Fundamentals 4.1 Rare Earths - Prices for rare earth elements are showing upward trends, with significant increases in overseas prices following export control measures [32]. - The report anticipates a continued tightening of supply due to regulatory changes and geopolitical factors affecting production [32]. 4.2 Antimony - Antimony prices are expected to recover as supply constraints from Myanmar persist, alongside increased demand from various sectors [33]. 4.3 Tin - Tin prices are supported by a favorable market outlook, driven by demand recovery in sectors such as semiconductors and photovoltaics [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of closely monitoring investment opportunities in strategic metals such as rare earths, especially following significant price increases in overseas markets due to China's export controls [8][13]. - In the steel sector, there has been a notable increase in rebar consumption and a slight rise in overall steel prices, indicating a positive trend in demand [14][38]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints: Focus on Strategic Metals - The report highlights the strategic importance of rare earth metals, particularly in light of recent U.S.-China trade discussions that aim to reduce tariffs, which could enhance global economic recovery [8][13]. - Following China's export restrictions on heavy rare earths, overseas prices have surged, with dysprosium and terbium prices in Europe increasing nearly threefold [8][13]. 2. Steel Sector: Price Trends - Rebar consumption has risen significantly, with a reported consumption of 2.6 million tons, marking a 21.69% increase week-on-week [14][18]. - The overall steel price index has seen a slight increase of 0.92%, with hot-rolled coil prices rising to 3,320 CNY/ton, a 1.40% increase, and cold-rolled prices at 3,767 CNY/ton, a 1.31% increase [14][38]. 3. New Energy Metals: Supply and Price Declines - Lithium production in April 2025 was reported at 70,640 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, but with a slight month-on-month decline [15][42]. - Nickel production has seen a significant year-on-year decrease of 14.18%, while cobalt prices have shown a downward trend [15][44]. 4. Industrial Metals: Copper and Aluminum - Copper smelting fees have slightly increased, with the LME aluminum price settling at 2,474 USD/ton, reflecting a minor week-on-week rise of 0.20% [16]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, leading to increased profitability for producers [16][28]. 5. Precious Metals: Market Adjustments - Gold prices have experienced a notable decline of 3.72% week-on-week, attributed to reduced demand for safe-haven assets following positive developments in U.S.-China relations [17].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the antimony industry, highlighting significant demand growth and supply constraints, suggesting a bullish investment rating for antimony-related assets. Core Insights - Recent price increases for antimony are driven by improved exports, rising domestic demand, and a contraction in imported ore supply [2][3] - The domestic supply-demand gap for antimony is projected to reach 25,000 tons, representing 24% of domestic demand, necessitating a price adjustment to at least 294,000 RMB per ton to align with import costs [4][6] - Global antimony demand is expected to grow from 151,000 tons in 2024 to 165,000 tons in 2027, with a CAGR of 2.9%, while supply is anticipated to decline at a rate of -1.2% during the same period [9][10] Summary by Sections Recent Price Movements - Antimony prices have risen due to three main factors: improved exports, increased domestic demand from flame retardants and photovoltaic sectors, and reduced imports [2][3] - Exports of antimony oxide have shown significant recovery, with December exports reaching 1,571 tons, a 102% month-on-month increase [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic supply of antimony is constrained, with total supply estimated at 80,000 tons against a demand of 110,000 tons, leading to a significant shortfall [4][6] - The report emphasizes that even with maximum export recovery, a supply gap of 10,000 tons remains in overseas markets, indicating persistent tightness in the global antimony market [5] Long-term Industry Outlook - Antimony is recognized as a strategic metal with emerging demand in new applications and safety stock considerations [9] - The report highlights the importance of antimony in various sectors, including flame retardants (50% of consumption) and photovoltaic glass (24% of consumption) [9] - The global antimony supply is projected to face increasing pressure, with China's production expected to decline from 180,000 tons in 2008 to 60,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -7% [10] Company Performance - Companies like Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, and Huaxi Nonferrous are positioned as key players in the antimony market, with significant resources and strategic plans to enhance their market positions [14]