固收-2026，乘风而起，转债新篇 20251212 摘要 2025 年 A 股市场分阶段波动，小微盘股表现优于沪深 300，中证转债 指数涨幅与沪深 300 相当，但各行业转债表现分化，有色金属表现突出， 通信、银行等偏弱。 2025 年转债估值呈现波动上升趋势，中位数价格维持历史高位，小盘 和低评级转债占优，高价策略跑赢双低策略，约 400-500 只转债全年上 涨。 2025 年转债供给偏弱，新发行规模虽略高于去年，但仍处历史低位， 新券定价普遍偏高，强赎退出加速，总体净缩量超 1,500 亿，AAA 级缩 量超 1,000 亿。 2025 年转债需求端，可转债 ETF 规模迅速增长，公募基金显著增持， 保险机构则显著压降持仓比例。 展望 2026 年，转债市场到期规模仍较高，但新发预案提速，强赎倾向 延续，供给紧平衡是主线，需求端虽乐观但不一定完全补足退出规模。 2026 年全球经济外需具韧性，内需和内生增长更值得期待，预计将有 促进消费的宏观政策发力，固定资产投资和制造业增速或改善，宏观经 济能见度提升。 对 2026 年权益市场持乐观态度，新消费、科技制造是主线，建议关注 新能源、化工、养殖、钢铁 ...

12月10日，雅迪在无锡国际会议中心隆重举办2026年度全球「新」新零售与「新」消费融合峰会。本次峰会以"智启新零售·重塑新增长"为主题，汇聚全球 运营商代表、行业专家与企业高层，共同探讨新时代背景下的「新」新零售转型路径与市场增长策略，践行行业领导者使命，推动产业迈向高质量发展。 把握新国标时代的重大机遇，行业不仅需积极拥抱政策、深耕用户需求，更需依靠新模式、新创新来打开广阔市场，实现可持续增长。此次峰会上，聚焦这 一发展课题，雅迪高级副总裁、轮值总裁周朝阳阐释了如何在新机遇下实现产品与市场的有效对接；高级副总裁王家中就海外市场拓展分享了实践路径；全 球产品与技术副总裁韩义西则从产品端进一步解读了落地策略。峰会还特邀中国企业战略转型专家宁高宁先生，以《乘势而上 更好的雅迪》为题，从长期 主义视角为行业注入前瞻动力，共同探索新国标时代高质量增长之道。 新战略聚势：新零售重塑新增长 迎接新国标时代，雅迪推出以"试骑试驾"标准化、细分市场开拓为核心的关键举措，将"新"新零售的系统能力转化为运营商可执行、可增长的行动指南。 在运营层面，雅迪持续深化以用户为中心的数字化建设，依托大数据分析骑行习惯与消费偏好，深度融合 ...

仰望星空 关注全球价值投资机会 止于至善总经理何理，比较关注全球的价值投资机会。近日，在接受上证报记者采访时，何理认为，尽 管科技股年底波动有所加剧，但AI对各行业的颠覆性影响和科技产业积极的政策环境并未改变，科技 有望继续成为接下来的市场主线。 洞察：AI主线刚刚开始 何理对科技板块的投资机会尤为关注。 止于至善总经理何理： ◎记者 马嘉悦 实习生 姜彧 全局：投资机会远不止AI 值得注意的是，除了AI板块，何理对新消费与资源方向也颇为关注。 他分析称，近年来，90后、00后逐渐成为主力消费群体，他们更愿意为能表达个性、带来愉悦体验的产 品买单。与此同时，"质价比"正在成为消费企业新的竞争核心，即消费企业竞争的本质不再是单纯的高 低价博弈，而是能否在合理的价位上提供恰当的产品与服务体验。因此，从投资角度看，情绪价值、质 价比驱动的新消费板块值得关注。 另外，何理认为，AI数据中心的建设和电网扩容正在推升对铜、铝、铀等关键资源的需求，这些资源 品有望在下一阶段迎来结构性的投资机会。 谈及全球市场的机会，何理对韩国、越南等国家的权益资产较为看好。 他表示，在韩国市场的宽基指数中，与AI相关的标的占比非常高，而且 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the food and beverage industry, indicating a potential for returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is currently in a favorable position for investment, with a focus on valuation before performance. The report suggests that despite recent adjustments in the sector, there is fundamental support for new consumption trends, and stock prices have absolute upside potential [7][4]. - Short-term trading strategies should focus on "individual stock improvement" and "turnaround opportunities," recommending specific stocks such as Miaokelan Duo (600882), Jinshiyuan (603369), Gujing Gongjiu (000596), and Shede Liquor (600702) for buying [3]. - Structural dividends are expected to continue, with recommendations for Dongpeng Beverage (605499) and Yanjinpuzi (002847) [3]. - The report highlights a stabilization in demand or market share, recommending stocks like Kweichow Moutai (600519), Shanxi Fenjiu (600809), Luzhou Laojiao (000568), Qingdao Beer (600600), and Yili Group (600887) for buying [3]. Summary by Sections - **Market Conditions**: The food and beverage industry is experiencing pressure on both volume and price, primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors and consumer sentiment. High-end consumption is performing better than low-end, with emerging channels outpacing traditional ones. Categories like snacks and beverages are expected to maintain relative prosperity, while dairy and beer are projected to see structural growth [7][4]. - **Mid-term Trends**: New consumption remains a key theme, with expanding demand in categories such as health foods and pet foods. Instant retail channels are showing high growth, although discount formats and high-end retail are slowing down compared to traditional supermarkets [7][4]. - **Future Outlook**: The report anticipates that the food and beverage sector will transition from valuation-driven growth to performance-driven growth in 2026, with expectations of a performance bottom in the first quarter of 2026 for the liquor segment [7][4].

这是新消费智库第 2 7 2 7 期文章 新消费导读 1. 拉比 × 膳魔师限定款保温杯上新 2. 雀巢奇巧联名 7-ELEVEN 推出上新联名限定新品 3. 「 Peet' s 」 x 「 SALOMON 」联名上新 4. Mondel ē z 推出无糖奥利奥 5. 「星巴克中国」 x 《哈利波特》上新 6. Jol l ybaby 推出声效拳击手偶 7. 巴拉巴拉推出黑标鹅绒 8. 果子熟了推出「西柚黄金芽」与「白桃观音」新品 9. 宝宝树推出 AI 奇迹 2.0 系统 10. 权志龙将与 CDG 合作推出联名系列 11. 莲花即将上市松茸鲜升级版 12. 盐津铺子旗下 大 魔王官宣王一博为全球代言人 13. Prada 官宣杨幂成为品牌代言人 ...... 一周新品 1. 拉比 × 膳魔师限定款保温杯上新 图片来源：AI生成 拉比 × 膳魔师限定款保温杯上新，三丽鸥、 CHi iKAWA 、哈利波特等，宣称超高颜值，长效保温。 （ EBH 母婴时代） 2. 雀巢奇巧联名 7-ELEVEN 推出上新联名限定新品 近日，雀巢奇巧联名 7-ELEVEN 推出威化巧克力脆片与巧克力风味酱联名限定新品。据官方介绍 ...

行业月报 · 食品饮料行业 11 月 CPI 继续正增长，关注顺周期β与新消费α —— 行业动态更新 2025 年 12 月 14 日 核心观点 食品饮料行业 推荐 维持评级 分析师 刘光意 ：021-20252650 ：liuguangyi_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130522070002 研究助理：彭潇颖 ：pengxiaoying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 相对沪深 300 表现图 2025 年 12 月 12 日 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024/12/16 2025/1/16 2025/2/16 2025/3/16 2025/4/16 2025/5/16 2025/6/16 2025/7/16 2025/8/16 2025/9/16 2025/10/16 2025/11/16 SW食品饮料 沪深300 资料来源：中国银河证券研究院 相关研究 1.【银河食饮】专题研究_关注餐供公司与商超合作 自有品牌的α机会 2.【银河食饮】专题研究_前瞻 2026：如何判断魔芋 零食的持续性？ 3.【银河食饮】2026 年度投资策略：新 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2026 strategy conference held by Zhongtai Securities highlighted the importance of the capital market in serving national strategies and empowering the real economy, with a focus on structural opportunities driven by advanced manufacturing and emerging industries, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence [2][4][5]. Group 1: Economic Structure and Opportunities - The Chinese economic structure is characterized by a strong supply but weak demand, leading to downward pressure on prices, which is a structural issue involving industrial and income distribution [7]. - Despite challenges, structural opportunities exist, particularly in advanced manufacturing and emerging industries led by AI, which are transforming the economic landscape and creating new industry prosperity [8]. - The improvement in listed companies' profitability supports the performance of the A-share market, with a year-on-year growth of 5.47% in the first three quarters, surpassing the actual GDP growth rate [10]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Investment Directions - The capital market is expected to present more structural opportunities in 2026, particularly in technology and new consumption sectors, as traditional consumption growth is limited [9][11]. - Zhongtai Securities' strategy chief analyst, Xu Chi, anticipates a structural market rotation in 2026, focusing on key areas such as technology innovation and reducing reliance on Western supply chains [11][12]. - Four key investment directions for 2026 include: 1) Gold and related sectors due to geopolitical tensions; 2) AI technology stocks expected to perform well; 3) Emerging consumption related to younger demographics; 4) High dividend and fixed-income-like assets [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that emerging demand is leading the way, while traditional consumption is breaking through. The year 2026, as the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, is expected to see continued implementation of consumption stimulus policies, effectively releasing residents' consumption willingness and promoting a steady recovery in consumption demand [4][11] - The report suggests that the traditional consumption industry is likely to experience a rebound, while new demands such as "new products, new channels, and new business formats" will continue to drive the rapid development of new consumption [4][11] - The report highlights the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan, which emphasizes the need to stimulate consumption and enhance domestic demand as a key driver of economic growth [11][12] Group 2 - In the textile and media sectors, new demand is leading to new supply, and new supply is creating new demand. The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in three segments: outdoor sports, gold jewelry, and cultural and trendy IP in 2026 [4][30] - The outdoor sports segment is identified as a growing trend, with social aspects becoming increasingly important for young consumers. The report notes that outdoor activities such as cycling, hiking, and climbing are gaining popularity [32][33] - The gold jewelry market is expected to see continued growth in consumer spending, with a positive outlook for retail sales in 2026. The report suggests focusing on leading gold jewelry brands [32][33] Group 3 - The social services sector is evolving, with a focus on leading companies that actively respond to changes in consumer demand. The report indicates that tourism and beauty industries are experiencing changes, with a shift towards rational consumption and a focus on value for money [4][30] - The food and beverage sector is expected to stabilize, with signs of recovery emerging. The report notes that the industry is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions and consumer income expectations [4][30] - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors are experiencing a cyclical upturn, particularly in the pig farming segment, which is expected to stabilize due to policy-driven transformations [4][5] Group 4 - The home appliance industry is characterized by resilience in demand, with policies such as "trade-in for new" supporting consumption. The report suggests looking for structural highlights within the home appliance sector, particularly in high-dividend white goods and rapidly growing new consumption categories [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of exploring new consumption trends and adapting to changing consumer preferences, particularly in the context of the ongoing economic recovery [4][5]

2024年全球金融资产达到269万亿欧元，创历史新高。 中国已崛起为全球财富增长的重要来源。 报告数据显示，持有证券尤其是股票，是资产增长的关键。从资产类别看，证券（股票、投资基金等）增速遥遥领先，2023年与2024年增幅 分别达11.5%和12.0%，约为保险/养老金及银行存款增速的两倍。报告预测，2025年全球金融资产增速将放缓至约6%，中长期前景则受政治 不确定性和人工智能（AI）未知发展的影响。 安联控股中国旗下多家子公司的投资负责人亦在上述论坛上展望了明年中国资本市场的配置价值。 安联基金副总经理兼首席投资官郑宇尘表示，当前的政策环境演变和向好的产业趋势推动了股市牛市，且股票估值隐含的风险溢价处于合理 水平。A股盈利水平预计在2025年底企稳，为来年的慢牛行情奠定了基础。投资者可关注多个具备增长潜力的领域，特别是科技、自主可控 和创新药板块，以及新消费和受益于海外市场拓展的结构性机会。 安联保险权益投资部总经理杜毅也分析称，中国权益市场正迎来三大转变：低利率环境推动险资等长期资金持续流入，资本市场生态优化转 向重回报，以及全球产业趋势引领的科技板块盈利确定性提升。展望明年，市场将在盈利温和修复与资 ...

近日，随着"双12"购物节各种促销政策纷纷上线，消费者的购物热情同步点燃。趁此热度，浙江各地抢抓岁末消 费旺季，策划组织多元活动，持续激发消费潜能。 在杭州的这家卖场，"双12"促销活动持续升温，不少市民前来选购。商家紧贴岁末年底消费需求，联合厂家上新 多款家电产品，同步加码满减优惠力度，销售额较平日增加近两成。 消费者 曹先生：因为我房子马上交付了，就赶紧来买掉，各个品牌自己的厂家的补贴，吸引力还是蛮大的。 杭州苏宁易购广场店店长 余林启：让利给消费者，新服务的模式，给消费者带来更大的一个生活品质的提升。 购物节的热度也从消费端传导至供给端。在湖州织里镇，这家服饰店铺12小时的订单量突破5000单。应对激增的 发货需求，企业引入自动化分拣系统，确保货品快速送达消费者手中。 为助力企业更好抢抓年底窗口期，今天，省商务厅举行新消费创新大赛资源对接活动，为百余家新消费品牌链接 金融、技术和平台资源。这家科技企业带来了自主研发的外骨骼产品，计划在消费级健康与辅助领域加大应用。 现场，参会电商平台当即与其开展对接，探讨新品推广路径。 湖州煜果果品牌管理有限公司副总经理 张小涛："双12"期间，我们早中晚三场直播，比平 ...