所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-12 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-12 所长 早读 托底信号浓，提质增效进 观点分享： 昨日闭幕的中央经济工作会议进一步明确了明年经济工作的方向和任务。边际来看，除 了延续政治局会议精神，持续强调譬如科技创新等领域内容外，较政治局会议在市场关注的 一些领域有新的细化：①传统稳增长领域，重新释放了诸多稳增长信号，超出市场预期。包 括明确提及"灵活高效运用降准降息"，要求"保持流动性充裕"，对宏观资产均有明确的 流动性正向利多。财政方面要求"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"，预计明 年赤字率将维持，总赤字规模继续温和扩张。财政继续发力将给市场带来总需求预期的正向 引导。此外，政治局会议未提及的房地产也重回视野，聚焦"控增量、去库存、优供给"， 并结合内需任务中提到的"高质量推进城市更新"以及"推动投资止跌回稳，适当增加中央 预算内投资规模"，有利于改善下半年以来投资明显拖累经济的现状。在市场较为关注的 "两新"、"两重"方面用了"优化"实施意味着将不会直接完全退出，均有利于增长预期 的改善。②在物价方面，在多个领 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 综合 PMI 跌破 50，货币待加力 11 月 30 日， 统计局发布 11 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.2%，前值 49.0%。非制造业 PMI 49.5%，前值 50.1%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，服务业 PMI 下跌，拖累综合 PMI 跌破 50%。11 月综合 PMI 产出指数回落 0.3 个百分点至 49.7%， 这是自 2023 年初以来综合 PMI首度跌破荣枯线。拆分来看，服务业、制造业、建筑业生产或商务活动指数环比 分别为-0.7、+0.3、+0.5 个百分点，可见主要是服务业的拖累。10 月适逢国庆中秋假期，居民出行、购物、旅 游、文体娱乐以及住宿餐饮消费表现较好，11 月进入淡季，这些分项均出现不同程度回落。不过这种季节性， 往年并不特别明显。今年 11 月服务业商务活动分项的回落幅度（-0.7 个百分点），在最近 10 年中仅次于 2022 和 2023 年同期（分别是-1.9 和-0.8 个百分点），其他年份多为持平或小幅上升（平均+0.5 个百分点）。 第二，制 ...

Core Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to August. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from August [1][2] CPI Analysis - The slight narrowing of the CPI decline in September is attributed to effective consumption promotion policies, with increased prices for home appliances and mobile phones contributing positively. Additionally, a significant rise in international gold prices also played a role [2] - Food prices decreased by 4.4%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.83 percentage points, while energy prices fell by 2.7%, contributing about 0.20 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] - The "tail effect" was noted as a significant factor in the CPI's year-on-year change, with a negative impact of about 0.8 percentage points from previous price changes [2] PPI Analysis - The narrowing of the PPI decline is influenced by a lower comparison base from the previous year and the positive effects of macroeconomic policies. Certain industries, such as coal processing and metal smelting, showed reduced price declines compared to August [4] - Prices in several sectors, including aircraft manufacturing and electronic materials, experienced year-on-year increases, indicating a recovery in some industrial prices [4] Future Outlook - The release of consumer service potential is expected to support a stable core CPI, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the CPI year-on-year [3] - The PPI is expected to stabilize as capacity governance continues in key industries, improving supply-demand structures [5] - The monetary policy is likely to maintain a moderately loose stance to support consumption and innovation, while addressing the weak internal growth dynamics [5]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In September, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while it increased by 0.1% month-on-month [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1][4] - The decline in CPI was primarily attributed to the "carryover effect," with food prices dropping by 4.4%, significantly impacting the overall CPI [4][6] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, with the month-on-month figure remaining flat [1][6] - The year-on-year decline in PPI has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in producer prices [6][9] - The prices of production materials showed a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, but the decrease has lessened compared to previous months, suggesting some recovery in production material pricing [8][10] Group 3: Economic Factors and Market Trends - The improvement in price indices is attributed to the release of consumer potential, industrial structure upgrades, and the continuous optimization of market competition [1][10] - Various macroeconomic policies are showing positive effects, leading to a reduction in the year-on-year price decline in several industries, including coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [10][11] - The overall market is expected to see a gradual recovery, with projections indicating that the PPI decline will narrow in the latter half of 2025 due to improved market conditions [11]

Core Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][2][3] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily due to a "tail effect," with a contribution of approximately -0.8 percentage points from this effect, while new price changes contributed about 0.5 percentage points [2] - Food prices fell by 4.4%, impacting the CPI decline by about 0.83 percentage points, with lamb prices experiencing their first increase after 44 months of decline [2] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7%, contributing approximately 0.20 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] - The core CPI's increase to 1.0% is attributed to improved consumer demand and the effects of recent consumption-boosting policies [3] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating better-than-expected performance [4] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries stabilizing prices [4] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is also linked to the ongoing optimization of market competition and the effects of macroeconomic policies [4][5] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the CPI will show a mild recovery in 2025, with a projected annual increase of 0.1% [3] - The PPI is expected to experience a decline in the first half of 2025, followed by a stabilization or slight recovery in the latter half, with an overall forecasted annual decrease of 2.7% [5]

Industrial Sector - The operating rates of various industrial sectors are generally higher than the same period last year, with national high furnace operating rates increasing by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year as of the second week of March [1][6] - The operating rate of benzene-styrene increased by 15.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate of PVC saw a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points [1][6] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires grew by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while PTA weaving machine load rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 6.2 percentage points [1][6] Construction Sector - The funding availability rate for construction projects continues to improve, reaching 57.2% as of March 11, up 0.75 percentage points from the end of February [2][7] - Cement dispatch rates recorded 33.7%, a year-on-year increase of 4.2 percentage points, while asphalt operating rates fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][8] Transportation Sector - Subway passenger volumes in major cities averaged 61.99 million trips from March 1 to March 17, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [2][8] - Domestic flight execution rates averaged 12,063 flights per day, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, while international flights saw a significant increase of 20.1% [2][9] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows positive transaction conditions, with average daily transaction areas in 30 major cities increasing by 11.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Second-hand housing transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw significant year-on-year increases of 47.1%, 56.3%, and 65.1%, respectively [2][10] Automotive Sector - Retail sales of passenger cars in early March showed a year-on-year growth of 14%, significantly higher than the cumulative growth of 1% in January and February [2][11] - Wholesale sales increased by 26% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales surged by 44% [2][12] Home Appliances - Offline sales of home appliances maintain relatively high growth rates, with air conditioning and washing machine sales showing mixed results [2][12][13] - The ongoing policy support for replacing old appliances is expected to sustain growth momentum in the home appliance sector [2][12] Container Shipping - Container throughput remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3% from March 2 to March 16 [2][13] - Port cargo throughput also showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, indicating stable export conditions [2][13] Price Trends - Food prices are in line with seasonal trends, while industrial product prices remain relatively stable, with the BPI index at 905 points as of March 18 [2][14] - The national average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.7% week-on-week, while vegetable prices saw a decline of 2.0% [2][15]