Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The Central Economic Work Conference further clarified the direction and tasks of next year's economic work. There are new refinements in some areas compared to the Political Bureau meeting, including releasing many signals in traditional growth - stabilizing areas, emphasizing work related to prices, and focusing on "quality and efficiency improvement" and "cross - cycle" structural adjustment. Next year's economy is expected to continue to stabilize, with the repair of short - boards such as prices and more prominent economic development quality and efficiency [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference continued to emphasize科技创新 and had new refinements in traditional growth - stabilizing areas, such as clearly mentioning "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", "maintaining sufficient liquidity", and focusing on real estate with the focus on "controlling increments, reducing inventories, and optimizing supplies". It is expected that the deficit rate will remain and the total deficit scale will continue to expand moderately next year. These measures are conducive to improving the growth expectation [8]. - In terms of prices, the policy shows an attitude of attention. It is expected that the certainty of price repair next year will further increase [8]. - Next year's policy will focus on "quality and efficiency improvement" and "cross - cycle" structural adjustment in addition to stabilizing growth [8]. Commodity Analysis Precious Metals - **Silver**: The price reached a new high, with London silver accelerating to $64.3 per ounce. The current spot contradiction is difficult to solve, with low domestic inventory and a slight increase in overseas lease rate. There is a risk of a squeeze in both Shanghai and London. The market is expected to continue to be strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure level around $65 [10]. - **Gold**: The price showed an upward trend, with factors such as expected interest rate cuts and macro - economic policies influencing it [21]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rose due to the decline of the US dollar. China's copper imports increased in November, and Chile's copper exports also increased year - on - year. The trend intensity is strong [25][27]. - **Zinc**: The price is short - term strong with internal and external market resonance. Although the most severe stage of overseas supply shortage has passed, the risk of low inventory still exists. There is an expectation of zinc element surplus next year, but the short - term price has upward elasticity [11]. - **Lead**: The domestic inventory increased, and the price was under pressure [31]. - **Tin**: There was a new supply disturbance. The price showed a certain fluctuation [34]. - **Aluminum**: The price center moved up. The supply - demand surplus of alumina remained unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [37]. - **Nickel**: The structural surplus situation has changed, but the game contradiction remains unchanged. Stainless steel's supply and demand continue to be weak, and the cost - support logic is enhanced [46]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: The price dropped significantly at night due to factors such as the decline of crude oil, weakening demand, and warehouse receipt pressure. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term [13]. - **PX**: The demand is seasonally weakening, but the supply is still tight, showing a high - level shock market. The overall supply - demand is tight, and there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future [86]. - **PTA**: The price is in a high - level shock situation, supported by the cost of PX. The 05 contract can hold a long - PX and short - PTA strategy [87]. - **MEG**: The trend is weak. Attention should be paid to the support of unplanned maintenance on the market. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 [88]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The reduction in production is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [183]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from US soybeans is insufficient, and the price fluctuates mainly [183]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rose, and the domestic soybean meal showed a strong - side shock [189]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The price showed a certain fluctuation [193]. - **Sugar**: The price is in a range - bound shock [196]. - **Cotton**: The price is in a strong - side shock, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [200]. - **Eggs**: The price is in an adjustment shock [206]. - **Hogs**: The price increase due to cooling was less than expected, and the warehouse receipt increased. The trend is weak [208]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills. The price showed a certain stability [212]. Others - **Iron Ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [57]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand data is weak, and the price is in a low - level shock [60][61]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The spot price is short - term firm, and the price is in a wide - range shock [65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a wide - range shock [70]. - **Log**: The price is in a low - level shock [74]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The short - term sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is a shock market [156]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: There is medium - term pressure, and a long - TA and short - PF/PR strategy can be held [170]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [173]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is in a short - term shock [178].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The composite PMI fell to 49.7% in November, down 0.3 percentage points from October, marking the first drop below the neutral line since early 2023[1] - The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points, but remains below the neutral line[2] - The services PMI dropped significantly by 0.7 percentage points to 49.5%, contributing to the overall decline in the composite PMI[1] Group 2: Sector Performance - The manufacturing sector showed signs of recovery with new orders rebounding 0.4 percentage points to 49.2%, although still below the neutral line, indicating weak demand[2] - The construction sector's business activity index increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.6%, driven by infrastructure-related activities, but remains below the neutral line[4] - The services sector experienced a notable decline, with business activity dropping significantly, reflecting seasonal effects post-holiday[1] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The average composite PMI for October-November was 49.85%, a significant slowdown from the third quarter average of 50.43%[7] - New export orders in manufacturing rebounded sharply by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, indicating potential recovery in exports[3] - The manufacturing raw material purchase price index rose by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, the highest in 18 months, suggesting rising input costs[3] Group 4: Policy Implications - The likelihood of increased monetary policy support is rising as economic indicators suggest continued slowdown[6] - The market remains skeptical about new supportive policies as the year-end approaches, with expectations for broad monetary easing not high[7] - The bond market's response to central bank bond purchases in November will be a key observation point for future monetary policy expectations[7]

Core Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to August. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from August [1][2] CPI Analysis - The slight narrowing of the CPI decline in September is attributed to effective consumption promotion policies, with increased prices for home appliances and mobile phones contributing positively. Additionally, a significant rise in international gold prices also played a role [2] - Food prices decreased by 4.4%, impacting the CPI by approximately 0.83 percentage points, while energy prices fell by 2.7%, contributing about 0.20 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] - The "tail effect" was noted as a significant factor in the CPI's year-on-year change, with a negative impact of about 0.8 percentage points from previous price changes [2] PPI Analysis - The narrowing of the PPI decline is influenced by a lower comparison base from the previous year and the positive effects of macroeconomic policies. Certain industries, such as coal processing and metal smelting, showed reduced price declines compared to August [4] - Prices in several sectors, including aircraft manufacturing and electronic materials, experienced year-on-year increases, indicating a recovery in some industrial prices [4] Future Outlook - The release of consumer service potential is expected to support a stable core CPI, with a gradual recovery anticipated in the CPI year-on-year [3] - The PPI is expected to stabilize as capacity governance continues in key industries, improving supply-demand structures [5] - The monetary policy is likely to maintain a moderately loose stance to support consumption and innovation, while addressing the weak internal growth dynamics [5]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In September, the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while it increased by 0.1% month-on-month [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [1][4] - The decline in CPI was primarily attributed to the "carryover effect," with food prices dropping by 4.4%, significantly impacting the overall CPI [4][6] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, with the month-on-month figure remaining flat [1][6] - The year-on-year decline in PPI has narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a potential stabilization in producer prices [6][9] - The prices of production materials showed a year-on-year decline of 2.4%, but the decrease has lessened compared to previous months, suggesting some recovery in production material pricing [8][10] Group 3: Economic Factors and Market Trends - The improvement in price indices is attributed to the release of consumer potential, industrial structure upgrades, and the continuous optimization of market competition [1][10] - Various macroeconomic policies are showing positive effects, leading to a reduction in the year-on-year price decline in several industries, including coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [10][11] - The overall market is expected to see a gradual recovery, with projections indicating that the PPI decline will narrow in the latter half of 2025 due to improved market conditions [11]

Core Insights - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth [1][2][3] CPI Analysis - The year-on-year decline in CPI was primarily due to a "tail effect," with a contribution of approximately -0.8 percentage points from this effect, while new price changes contributed about 0.5 percentage points [2] - Food prices fell by 4.4%, impacting the CPI decline by about 0.83 percentage points, with lamb prices experiencing their first increase after 44 months of decline [2] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7%, contributing approximately 0.20 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] - The core CPI's increase to 1.0% is attributed to improved consumer demand and the effects of recent consumption-boosting policies [3] PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating better-than-expected performance [4] - The PPI remained flat month-on-month for two consecutive months, with improvements in supply-demand relationships in certain industries stabilizing prices [4] - The narrowing of the PPI decline is also linked to the ongoing optimization of market competition and the effects of macroeconomic policies [4][5] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the CPI will show a mild recovery in 2025, with a projected annual increase of 0.1% [3] - The PPI is expected to experience a decline in the first half of 2025, followed by a stabilization or slight recovery in the latter half, with an overall forecasted annual decrease of 2.7% [5]

Industrial Sector - The operating rates of various industrial sectors are generally higher than the same period last year, with national high furnace operating rates increasing by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year as of the second week of March [1][6] - The operating rate of benzene-styrene increased by 15.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the operating rate of PVC saw a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points [1][6] - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires grew by 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, while PTA weaving machine load rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 6.2 percentage points [1][6] Construction Sector - The funding availability rate for construction projects continues to improve, reaching 57.2% as of March 11, up 0.75 percentage points from the end of February [2][7] - Cement dispatch rates recorded 33.7%, a year-on-year increase of 4.2 percentage points, while asphalt operating rates fell by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][8] Transportation Sector - Subway passenger volumes in major cities averaged 61.99 million trips from March 1 to March 17, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [2][8] - Domestic flight execution rates averaged 12,063 flights per day, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, while international flights saw a significant increase of 20.1% [2][9] Real Estate Market - The real estate market shows positive transaction conditions, with average daily transaction areas in 30 major cities increasing by 11.0% year-on-year [2][10] - Second-hand housing transactions in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen saw significant year-on-year increases of 47.1%, 56.3%, and 65.1%, respectively [2][10] Automotive Sector - Retail sales of passenger cars in early March showed a year-on-year growth of 14%, significantly higher than the cumulative growth of 1% in January and February [2][11] - Wholesale sales increased by 26% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales surged by 44% [2][12] Home Appliances - Offline sales of home appliances maintain relatively high growth rates, with air conditioning and washing machine sales showing mixed results [2][12][13] - The ongoing policy support for replacing old appliances is expected to sustain growth momentum in the home appliance sector [2][12] Container Shipping - Container throughput remains robust, with a year-on-year increase of 11.3% from March 2 to March 16 [2][13] - Port cargo throughput also showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, indicating stable export conditions [2][13] Price Trends - Food prices are in line with seasonal trends, while industrial product prices remain relatively stable, with the BPI index at 905 points as of March 18 [2][14] - The national average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.7% week-on-week, while vegetable prices saw a decline of 2.0% [2][15]