Core Viewpoint - The TIC report from the U.S. Treasury reveals that foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities reached $9.0134 trillion as of April, showing a year-over-year increase but a month-over-month decrease, with Japan, the UK, and China being the top holders [1][3]. Group 1: Foreign Holdings of U.S. Debt - As of April, foreign holdings of U.S. debt totaled $9.0134 trillion, an increase of $977.2 billion year-over-year but a decrease of $36.1 billion month-over-month [1]. - The top three holders of U.S. debt are Japan ($1.13 trillion), the UK ($807.7 billion), and China ($757.2 billion), with Japan and the UK increasing their holdings while China decreased its [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Trends - Since April, there has been significant market volatility attributed to a sentiment of "selling America," raising questions about whether this is a temporary shift or a long-term reallocation of global capital [5][7]. - The report indicates that 12 of the top 20 foreign holders reduced their U.S. debt holdings by a total of $125.2 billion, while 8 increased their holdings by $66.9 billion, suggesting mixed trends among foreign investors [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - Concerns over U.S. fiscal issues have led to an increase in term premiums, as investors demand additional compensation for taking on term risk, which has affected the correlation between stocks and bonds [5][12]. - The long-term attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries may be challenged if fiscal imbalances are not addressed, potentially leading to higher yields on long-term bonds [12]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations - Japan's substantial holdings of U.S. debt are seen as a strategic asset for trade negotiations, although officials have stated they do not intend to use these holdings as leverage [10]. - The ongoing discussions about U.S. fiscal sustainability and its impact on Treasury yields highlight the delicate balance between maintaining investor confidence and addressing budget deficits [12].

Group 1 - The latest military confrontation between Israel and Iran is expected to exert continued selling pressure on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, contrary to some investors' expectations of a flight to safety driving yields down [1][5] - Since the escalation of tensions into direct military conflict, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen by over 10 basis points, driven by soaring international oil prices and concerns over inflation [1][5] - Historical data indicates that previous confrontations between Israel and Iran have led to a rapid increase in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, which remained elevated for 30 days following such events [4][1] Group 2 - The current geopolitical situation is increasing the long-term risks faced by U.S. Treasury bond investors, who are already contending with rising inflation concerns and expanding U.S. debt issues [1][5] - The yield curve for U.S. Treasuries is steepening, with the 2-year yield rising by 8 basis points since last Thursday, while shorter-term yields are on a downward trajectory [5][6] - The concept of "term premium," which compensates investors for holding long-term bonds, is expected to rise, potentially pushing 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to levels even higher than the over 5% seen in 2023 [6][5]

智通财经APP获悉，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，日本央行官员们普遍认为，日本国内的整 体物价涨幅较今年早些时候央行官员们给出的预期略强;若全球贸易紧张局势缓解，并且央行官员们认 为这一因素可能为该央行再度讨论加息敞开大门，并且预计下一次加息可能就出现在今年的下半年。 知情人士称，在下周为期两天的日本央行货币政策利率决议结束时，央行基准利率预计将继续维持在 0.5%，主要因为日本央行的货币政策制定者们需要继续观察全球关税谈判进展，以及日本贸易代表与 特朗普领导的美国政府关于美日贸易谈判对于美国以及日本经济的影响程度。 "10月可能是最早的时点，"前田表示。"但若日本央行想对明年春季薪资谈判有充分信心，则有可能等 到明年3月。" 在下一次利率调整后，日本央行大概率每六个月加息一次，目标终端利率约在1.5%至2%之间，高于市 场普遍预期的1%，前田在采访中表示。 目前利率期货交易员们以及债券市场交易员们的担忧点在于，若市场长期以来难以预测货币政策决策的 日本央行选择在下周的政策会议上释放"鹰派"的重磅加息信号，可能令长期限(10年及以上)日本国债以 及美国国债收益率大幅扩张，"期限溢价"也随之大幅增长，进而 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction is seen as a critical test for the market, especially as the yield approaches a 20-year high [1] - The proposed tax reform by Trump is expected to increase the U.S. budget deficit by trillions, potentially leading to more bond issuance [1] - Investor demand for long-term U.S. debt has weakened, with higher yields being demanded as compensation, pushing the 30-year yield to 5.15%, the highest in nearly two decades [1][2] Group 2 - The 5% yield threshold has become a focal point for the market, attracting buyers as it is perceived as a ceiling before the auction [2] - There is a consensus among bond managers, including DoubleLine Capital and PIMCO, to favor shorter-duration U.S. Treasuries while reducing exposure to long-term bonds due to refinancing risks and the tax reform's impact [3] - Some analysts, like Guneet Dhingra from BNP Paribas, suggest that the current levels of 30-year Treasuries reflect worsening fiscal conditions and may rebound if auction demand is strong or deficit concerns ease [3]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts predict a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve in 2025-2026, driven by a significant decline in short-term yields rather than a substantial rise in long-term yields [1][4][6] Group 1: Yield Curve Expectations - The yield curve is expected to steepen due to a downward trend in overall yields, particularly in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Long-term yields may experience slight declines by the end of the year due to persistent high U.S. government budget deficits, while short-term yields are anticipated to decline significantly [1][4] - By the end of the year, the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to approach around 4% [4] Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Morgan Stanley anticipates that inflation pressures related to tariffs will prevent the Federal Reserve from lowering interest rates in 2025, maintaining a hawkish stance [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are betting on a rate cut in September and December, contrasting with Morgan Stanley's outlook [3] Group 3: Long-term Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - Long-term Treasury yields are expected to remain elevated due to expanding budget deficits, potentially leading to increased "term premiums" [6][7] - The term premium, which compensates investors for holding long-term bonds, is currently at its highest level since 2014, reflecting concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and inflation risks [7][8] - The anticipated increase in borrowing needs and government spending may exacerbate financing pressures in the market [8]

1. 6月9日(周一)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.11%，标普500指数期货涨 0.16%，纳指期货涨0.09%。 | 트 US 30 | 42,811.50 | 42,840.50 | 42,668.50 | +48.90 | +0.11% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6,010.00 | 6.012.60 | 5,984.70 | +9.70 | +0.16% | | E US Tech 100 | 21,781.00 | 21,793.80 | 21,685.80 | +19.20 | +0.09% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数跌0.62%，英国富时100指数跌0.21%，法国CAC40指数跌0.29%，欧洲斯托克 50指数跌0.60%。 | 德国DAX30 | 24,145.46 | 24,296.30 | 24,097.98 | -149.43 | -0.62% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 8,819.63 | 8 ...

在一些经济学家看来，重返白宫后的"特朗普2.0时代"国债发行与预算赤字将比官方预测高得多，主要因特朗普领导的新一届政府以"对内减税+对外加征关 税"为核心的促经济增长与保护主义框架，叠加愈发庞大的预算赤字与美债利息，美国财政部发债规模可能被迫在"特朗普2.0时代"比花钱如流水的拜登政府 愈发扩张，加之"逆全球化"之下中国与日本可能大幅减持美债，"期限溢价"势必较以往愈发高企。 智通财经APP了解到，全球投资者们对长期限美国政府债的抵触情绪，正在让本应"例行公事"的美国国债拍卖事件成为华尔街投资机构乃至全球投资者本周 最期待的经济大事件之一。 随着投资者们对于美国预算赤字将因"大而美"法案所包含的庞大减税举措以及未来愈发庞大债息支出而持续升温，对于美债的需求也在趋于疲软，近期美债 拍卖收益率以及标售倍数持续低于市场预期。因此本周长期限美债拍卖可能令"期限溢价"大幅飙升，进而使得曾经令投资者们闻风丧胆的"期限溢价"重返聚 光灯之下，可能推动股债市场再度剧烈震荡。 据了解，美国财政部周四将发行220亿美元、期限长达30年的美国长期限国债，作为美国政府常规融资的一部分。不过，由于市场对于长期限美债(即10-30 年期 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in U.S. economic activity and unexpected macro data in May have led to increased uncertainty, as reflected in the Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book, which used the term "uncertainty" 80 times, impacting the bond market positively with a notable rise in bond prices [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Beige Book indicates a decline in U.S. economic activity, suggesting that tariffs and high uncertainty are causing a chain reaction in the economy [1] - ADP's report shows that private sector job growth in May was nearly stagnant, with only 37,000 jobs added, significantly below the expected 110,000, marking the lowest level in over two years [1] Group 2: Bond Market Trends - The yields on U.S. Treasury bonds have dropped to their lowest levels since May 9, with the 2-year yield down 8.25 basis points to 3.862% and the 10-year yield down 9.85 basis points to 4.355% [2] - Short-term bond ETFs have gained popularity, with significant inflows, including over $25 billion into iShares 0-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (SGOV) and SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (BIL) [4] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Many fixed-income investors are avoiding long-term U.S. Treasuries, shifting focus to short-term bonds as a substitute, reflecting a cautious market sentiment [4] - Current conditions are expected to lead to a supply-demand imbalance in the bond market, with potential upward pressure on term premiums, keeping medium to long-term Treasury yields elevated [5]

美债收益率若升至5%，美股是否必然承压？ 据追风交易台消息，瑞银（UBS）最新报告指出，关键不在于美债收益率本身，而在于它如何上涨。"收益率上行的路径"是由经济增长驱动还是 由风险溢价（term premium）推动，其对股市的影响截然不同。 报告强调，若由经济增长和企业盈利预期改善推动，标普500有望上行至6200点；若由风险溢价上升（如财政赤字、政策不确定性）驱动，则对美 股尤其是防御板块构成压力。 收益率的变动路径比最终数值更重要 如果谈论美国债券收益率升至5%或更高，那么达到目标的过程将至关重要。 瑞银报告称，10年期美债收益率是全球无风险利率的重要锚，也是股市现金流折现的核心参数。当这一利率上升时，未来现金流的现值下降，从 而对股票估值构成压力。然而，市场并非静态调整，收益率的变化通常与其他变量同步发生，例如企业盈利预期、风险溢价和宏观经济环境。 "收益率从来不是孤岛"，瑞银策略师团队强调。10年期美债收益率的变动通常与股票估值的两大核心要素——风险溢价和盈利预期——同步波 动。真正决定股市走向的，是推动收益率上行的主导因素。 | Factors of investment returns | Ma ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in investment strategies among major financial institutions, led by DoubleLine Capital, towards short-term bonds due to concerns over the expanding U.S. federal budget deficit and debt burden, while long-term U.S. Treasury bonds are being avoided due to rising yield risks [1][2][5]. Group 1: Investment Strategies - DoubleLine Capital and other institutions are avoiding long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, opting instead for short-term bonds which present lower interest rate risks and decent yields [1]. - The investment strategy includes "steepening" trades, focusing on bonds in the mid-yield curve rather than long-term bonds [4]. - PIMCO has maintained a cautious stance on 30-year bonds since late last year, favoring bonds in the 5 to 10-year range [11][12]. Group 2: Market Trends - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has shown particularly weak performance this year, with yields rising while shorter-term bonds (2-year, 5-year, and 10-year) have seen declining yields [2]. - The yield on the 30-year bond reached 5.15%, close to its highest point since 2007, with a yield spread between the 30-year and 5-year bonds exceeding 1 percentage point for the first time since 2021 [9]. - Recent auction results indicate a preference for shorter-term bonds, with 2-year, 5-year, and 7-year bonds performing well, while the 30-year bond auction slightly underperformed expectations [13]. Group 3: Government Debt Issuance - Discussions about potentially reducing or pausing the issuance of 30-year bonds have emerged, which is unusual given the Treasury's efforts to maintain a stable debt issuance plan [5][6]. - The U.S. Treasury has committed to maintaining its auction scale, including long-term bonds, despite market pressures [7]. - The upcoming auction of 30-year bonds on June 12 is viewed as a critical test for market demand [7]. Group 4: Economic Concerns - Concerns over inflation due to tariff policies and the potential for increased government borrowing to cover deficits have contributed to the negative sentiment surrounding long-term bonds [8]. - The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2035, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio could rise to 118%, surpassing historical highs, which raises further concerns about long-term bond investments [13].