Core Viewpoint - The oil and petrochemical sector is experiencing strong demand for refined oil during the travel peak season, leading to a short-term bullish fluctuation in oil prices. However, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases, there are concerns about potential downward pressure on international oil prices in the medium to long term [2][4]. Oil and Petrochemical Sector - As of July 4-11, 2025, WTI crude oil futures closed up by 3.05%, while Brent oil futures rose by 3.09% [2]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Hamas, and Iran's cautious approach to nuclear negotiations, are contributing to short-term support for oil prices [2]. - The U.S. saw an increase in commercial crude oil inventories, but gasoline and jet fuel stocks decreased, indicating strong refined oil demand during the summer travel season [2]. - OPEC+ announced an increase in production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, with Saudi Arabia planning a final monthly increase of 550,000 barrels per day in September [2]. - There are concerns that after the peak season, international oil prices may face greater downward pressure due to accelerated production increases by OPEC+ [2][4]. Fluorochemical Sector - The supply of popular fluorinated refrigerants is tight, with prices remaining high. R32 prices continue to rise, while R134a prices are stable [3]. - The supply side is constrained due to policy restrictions, while demand from the automotive and air conditioning sectors is strong, supported by national subsidy policies [3]. - In the first half of 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 15.62 million and 15.65 million units, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.4% [3]. - The production of second-generation refrigerants is decreasing, while the production and quotas for third-generation refrigerants are locked in, leading to a high concentration of supply and supporting continued price increases [3]. Investment Recommendations - The oil and petrochemical sector is recommended for attention due to ongoing geopolitical risks and strong refined oil demand during the summer travel season, although medium-term concerns about price declines exist [4]. - The fluorochemical sector is also highlighted, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics driven by government subsidies and strong downstream demand [4]. - Companies to watch in the oil sector include China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, while in the fluorochemical sector, focus on leading companies in third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", "oscillating strongly", etc., which can be used as a reference for investment ratings of different products [3][5][10] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international diesel futures continue to be strong, and the downstream performance is eye - catching, providing support for crude oil prices. The overall energy and chemical market is expected to oscillate, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [1][3] - Oil - chemical products may have a small rebound due to the continuous strength of crude oil prices and the unfulfilled expectation of a decline in refined oil crack spreads, but the downstream and terminal industries do not support a trend - upward movement [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - Diesel remains strong, with the immediate spread of European ICE diesel reaching its highest level since 2022 and the US diesel crack spread rising. The low inventory in the US and Europe, combined with refinery outages and good demand, contributes to the strength of refined oil. The global crude oil inventory has not increased further since June [1] - Chemical product basis has stabilized slightly after a significant decline. Oil - chemical products may have a small rebound, but the downstream does not support a long - term upward trend. The spread between pure benzene and styrene is still narrowing [2] 2. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - US crude oil commercial inventory increased significantly on a weekly basis, and oil prices remained stable. On July 9, EIA reported that US gasoline demand was still very strong. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and diesel remains strong. OPEC + may increase production in September, and the US sanctions on Iran remain unchanged [5][8] Asphalt - Asphalt futures prices face significant downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production in August and September, increasing heavy - oil supply. Domestic asphalt raw material supply is sufficient, and production is expected to increase in July. The demand side shows that asphalt is overvalued [10][11] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil futures prices face downward pressure. OPEC + may increase production, and the decline in natural gas prices may reduce the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. China's increase in fuel oil import tariffs and the decline in geopolitical tensions also have a negative impact [12] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow crude oil to oscillate. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [13] LPG - The cost - side support of LPG weakens, and the fundamental pattern of oversupply remains unchanged. The PG futures may oscillate weakly due to factors such as the significant reduction in CP prices in July, the rapid accumulation of US propane inventory, and weak domestic demand [14][15] PX - Crude oil prices rise, driving PX to rebound. In the short term, the tight - balance pattern of PX continues, but the terminal market does not provide strong support, and the absolute price of PX has a downward trend [17] PTA - PTA is affected by terminal negative feedback and oscillates weakly. It is expected that the PTA market will decline this week due to factors such as the expected weakness of crude oil prices, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction in production by downstream polyester factories [17] Pure Benzene - Pure benzene has risen continuously due to positive news of downstream production. In the medium term, the situation in July - August is favorable, but high inventory may suppress the rebound [18] Styrene - Styrene rebounds driven by the strength of pure benzene. However, its own supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and port inventory is accumulating [22] Ethylene Glycol (EG) - EG is boosted by the rise in energy prices and oscillates due to its own supply - demand situation. The EG09 contract has upward elasticity, while the 01 contract may be shorted on rebounds [23][24] Short - Fiber - Short - fiber production and sales have slightly increased, the basis is stable, and processing fees have risen. The short - fiber supply - demand pattern oscillates, and the downstream weakness has not been transmitted to short - fiber itself [24] Bottle Chips - Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and processing fees need to remain low to promote maintenance. The absolute value of bottle chips follows raw materials, and the further compression space of spot processing fees is limited [26] Methanol - Methanol port inventory accumulates, and it oscillates. The price in Inner Mongolia has decreased, and the logic of reduced imports has weakened. The port inventory has increased, and the coal supply is sufficient [27][28] Urea - Urea has a situation of weak supply and demand, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot market is active, and exports help reduce inventory [28] Plastic (LLDPE) - The short - term driving force of LLDPE is limited, and it oscillates. The raw material support is weakening, the supply side has pressure, and the demand side is in the off - season [30][31] PP - PP maintenance has increased slightly, and it oscillates in the short term. The cost - side support is weakening, the supply side has an increasing trend, and the demand side is weak [32] PVC - PVC has low valuation and weak supply - demand, and it oscillates. The new production capacity will be put into operation, the downstream demand is weak, and the export situation has not improved significantly [34] Caustic Soda - Caustic soda may be in a situation where downstream replenishes inventory, and the market is strong. It is supported by the low price of liquid chlorine and the possible downstream replenishment [35] 3. Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period spread**: Different varieties have different changes in inter - period spreads, such as Brent M1 - M2 spread increasing by 0.04 to 1.21, and PX 1 - 5 month spread increasing by 10 to 46 [36] - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each variety vary. For example, the asphalt basis is 212 with a change of - 24, and the warehouse receipt is 82300 [37] - **Inter - variety spread**: The inter - variety spreads also show different changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread decreasing by 14 to - 268, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread increasing by 20 to 378 [38]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价震荡运行，其中WTI 8月合约收盘下跌0.41美元至65.11 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.63%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.16 美元至 67.61 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.24%。SC2508 以 497.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.5 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.30%。四位 OPEC+代表透露该联盟计划 8 月增产 | | | | 41.1 万桶/日，此前 5 月、6 月和 7 月已实施同等规模的增产。 | | | | OPEC+将于 7 月 6 日召开会议，这将是该组织自 4 月开始逐步退 | | | | 出减产以来的第五次月度增产。市场再度计价欧佩克增产预期， | | | 原油 | 但整体仍较为温和。油价已回落至 6 月 13 日以色列首次袭击伊朗 | 震荡 | | | 之前的水平附近，市场焦点重新转向供需平衡。除了 OPEC+可能 | | | | 增产，这可能会加剧今年晚些时候供过于求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After sharp rises and falls in the market, oil prices are likely to oscillate within a narrow range, and there is room for a slight increase in the oil price center in the future, subject to further guidance from OPEC+ production policies [1] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market will be supported in the short term, but the supply from Iran and Russia is declining, and attention should be paid to the risk of significant oil price fluctuations [3] - The price of asphalt is affected by both the cost - side oil price and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate [3] - The supply of polyester products is expected to increase, demand support is insufficient, and prices are expected to return to a low - range consolidation, with PX and TA following the cost of crude oil [4] - The rubber market has weak fundamental contradictions, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4] - Methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as the expected resumption of Iranian production and the impact on port arrivals in Taicang [6] - The fundamentals of polyolefins have not improved significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the decline in crude oil prices [6] - PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate as the downstream enters the off - season, but the arbitrage and hedging space is gradually narrowing [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI August contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; Brent August contract closed up $0.05 to $67.73 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; SC2508 closed at 498 yuan per barrel, down 7.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.46% decrease. Russian Urals crude oil price has fallen below the $60 per - barrel limit [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3019 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2508 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.19% at 3693 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased week - on - week [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.2% at 3563 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 0.7% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.42% at 4770 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.69% at 4293 yuan per ton. Iranian ethylene glycol plants are expected to resume production, and the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to return to a low - range consolidation [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 270 yuan per ton to 14040 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber rose 335 yuan per ton to 12145 yuan per ton. The global natural rubber production in May decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly [4] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2765 yuan per ton. Iranian plants are expected to resume production, and methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China wire drawing is 7150 - 7250 yuan per ton. Due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in crude oil prices, polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **PVC**: The prices in East, North, and South China markets fluctuate. As the downstream enters the off - season, PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on June 26th and 25th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price increases and decreases, and basis changes [9] 3.3 Market News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending June 20th, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels [12] - An impaired facility at the 14th - phase project of the South Pars Refinery in Iran's Bushehr Province has resumed operation [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of inter - period contract spreads for various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA, are provided [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report includes charts of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of production profits for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are presented [73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, it will likely have a narrow - range oscillation, and there is potential for a slight upward shift in the price center. For fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, their prices are also expected to fluctuate, with some facing downward pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and geopolitical situations [1][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil rebounded slightly. The EIA inventory report showed significant declines in US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 are key factors affecting the supply - demand balance and price trends of the oil market [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil declined on Wednesday. The import and export volumes of Chinese bonded marine fuel oil in May showed different trends. In June, the supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to increase, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market in Asia is supported by summer power generation demand [3]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract fell on Wednesday. The July production plan of refineries is expected to increase year - on - year but decrease slightly month - on - month. The current influencing factors include cost - side oil prices and weak demand [3][5]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX showed different trends on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are light, and there are plans for production cuts. The operation of Iranian terminals and the passage through the Strait of Hormuz are normal, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production of ethylene glycol plants [5]. - **Rubber**: The prices of main rubber contracts showed different trends on Wednesday. EU passenger car sales in May increased year - on - year, but the cumulative sales in the first five months decreased. The social inventory of natural rubber in China increased slightly, and the raw material prices declined [6]. - **Methanol**: The prices of methanol and its downstream products are presented. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the resumption of production of Iranian plants is expected to increase the arrival volume, and the price of methanol is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. - **Polyolefins**: The prices and production profits of polypropylene and polyethylene are provided. After the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in oil prices, the prices of polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The prices of PVC in different regions showed different trends. As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the narrowing of arbitrage and hedging space is expected to keep the price in an oscillatory state [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on June 25, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes, as well as the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - The EIA inventory report shows that in the week ending June 20, US commercial crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased significantly, while the strategic petroleum reserve increased. The product supply of US gasoline reached the highest level since December 2021, and the refinery utilization rate reached the highest level since July 2024 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [12][14][16] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [30][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [46][48][51] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spread charts between different varieties, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt, etc. [63][67][69] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [74][75][78] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [80][81][82] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [85]

2509预计随油价震荡，技术上关注7150附近支撑与7400附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 石化计划重启，产量、产能利用率预计环比上升。下游需求季节性偏弱，终端订单跟进有限，制品开工率 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 维持小幅下降趋势。进口减少或部分缓解国内供需矛盾。库存压力不大。成本方面，多国表示愿帮助调节 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 伊以冲突，但近日冲突呈升温趋势，国际油价高位宽幅震荡。短期来看，基本面对LLDPE盘面影响较小，L 塑料产业日报 2025-06-17 | 项 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [3]. Core Insights - The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has led to significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude reaching a peak of $78.5 per barrel on June 13, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly five years. The report outlines three potential scenarios for the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict on oil prices, ranging from limited upward pressure to a potential surge above $100 per barrel if the situation escalates further [6][7][14]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - As of June 13, 2025, Brent crude futures closed at $74.23 per barrel, up 11.67% from the previous week, while WTI futures rose 13.01% to $72.98 per barrel. The average prices for the week were $69.45 and $67.89 per barrel, respectively [6][21]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.644 million barrels to 432 million barrels, which is 8% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.504 million barrels, remaining 2% lower than the five-year average [21][23]. - The number of U.S. drilling rigs decreased by 4 to 555, which is a year-on-year decline of 35 rigs. The report anticipates a widening supply-demand trend in crude oil, with potential downward pressure on prices, but expects drilling day rates to continue rising due to ongoing capital expenditures in the global oil and gas upstream sector [6][21]. Refining Sector - The report notes a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads, with Singapore's comprehensive product crack spread dropping to $5.40 per barrel, down $5.38 from the previous week. The gasoline crack spread in the U.S. also fell to $20.95 per barrel, below the historical average of $24.88 per barrel [6][54][56]. - Despite the decline in crack spreads, the report suggests that refining profitability may gradually improve as overseas refineries exit the market and domestic refining rates remain low [6]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, while profits from polyester filament yarn have decreased. The report highlights that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with a need to monitor demand changes closely. However, it anticipates an upward trend in industry prosperity in the medium to long term due to a slowdown in new capacity additions [6][51]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as companies in the upstream exploration and development sector like CNOOC and Haiyou Engineering. It also suggests monitoring polyester leaders like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials for potential investment opportunities [6][15][16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with Brent spreads stronger than the Dubai market. High refinery profits in the short term are likely to lead to an expected increase in refinery operations. A decline in leading indicators for US shale oil and a stalemate in US - Iran negotiations contribute to this outlook [5]. - Medium - to long - term: Crude oil has a bearish outlook due to OPEC's supply policies and potential supply - demand imbalances [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily News - Saudi Arabia is pushing the OPEC alliance to increase production again, which may put downward pressure on international oil prices as it could exacerbate the risk of supply surplus in the second half of the year. A similar move in the past might trigger a new price war [3]. - Saudi Arabia has lowered the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia in July by 20 cents per barrel to a nearly four - year low [3]. - Iraq's oil exports have decreased because it failed to receive and export oil from the Kurdish region and was forced to cut production to comply with OPEC quotas [4]. - Hamas leaders are ready to start a new round of cease - fire negotiations in Gaza [4]. Regional Fundamentals - US oil market data for the week of May 23: Crude exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day; domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels (a 0.63% decline); strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels (a 0.2% increase); commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.351 million barrels per day, an increase of 262,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4]. - In China, the operating rate of major refineries decreased while that of Shandong local refineries increased this week. The production of gasoline and diesel both rose, with production from major refineries increasing and that from independent refineries decreasing. The sales - to - production ratio of gasoline increased and that of diesel decreased at local refineries. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded and that of local refineries improved [5]. Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated. After the OPEC's July production increase decision was made, prices rose over the weekend due to geopolitical tensions such as the threat of oil supply disruptions from Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian territory, the ongoing stalemate in US - Iran negotiations, and wildfires in a major oil - producing province in Canada [5]. - Fundamentally, global oil inventories remained largely flat. US commercial crude inventories decreased more than expected, with absolute inventories lower than the past three years, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased more than expected [5]. - On the supply side, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs continued to decline. OPEC increased production by 411,000 barrels per day in July as expected, Iran's production increased in April, and the production compliance rate within OPEC + rose in April [5]. - On the demand side, global refinery profits declined slightly but were still at a high level compared to the same period last year. US refinery operations were volatile and slightly under - expected. The summer travel season has begun, leading to an increase in demand for gasoline and jet fuel [5].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern, with Brent spreads stronger than the Dubai market. This is due to high short - term refinery profits, expected increase in refinery operations, decline in leading indicators of US shale oil, and the stalemate in US - Iran negotiations [5][6]. - Medium - to long - term: Crude oil is expected to be in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policies and supply - demand surplus [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, WTI prices decreased by $0.56, BRENT by $0.77, and DUBAI by $0.75. SC prices increased by 5.70, while OMAN decreased by 1.01 [3]. - For refined products, domestic gasoline prices increased by 20.00, and domestic diesel prices remained unchanged, with their spreads to BRENT also showing corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that completely giving up uranium enrichment goes against Iran's interests and rejected US coercion [3]. - Saudi Arabia hopes OPEC+ to further increase oil production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September to regain market share [3]. - Canada's Natural Resources Company restarted the Jackfish 1 oil sands project, aiming to fully restore its 36,500 - barrel - per - day capacity by June 7 [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day [4][5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a 0.63% decline, while strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, a 0.2% increase [5]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.897 million barrels per day, a 0.22% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - In China, the main refinery operating rate decreased, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate increased. Gasoline and diesel production both increased, with significant inventory reduction. Main refinery comprehensive profits rebounded, and local refinery comprehensive profits improved [5]. 3.4 Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated. After OPEC's July production increase decision, prices rose over the weekend due to geopolitical tensions such as Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian territory, the unresolved US - Iran negotiations, and wildfires in Canada's oil - producing province [5]. - Fundamentally, global oil inventories were basically flat, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased significantly. On the supply side, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs continued to decline, OPEC increased production as expected, and Iran's production increased in April [5][6]. - On the demand side, global refinery profits slightly declined but were still at a high level compared to the same period last year. US refinery operations were volatile and slightly lower than expected. With the start of the summer travel season, gasoline and jet fuel demand increased [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Brent monthly spread stronger than the Dubai market. The short - term high refinery profits are expected to lead to an increase in refinery operations. The leading indicators of US shale oil are declining, and the US - Iran negotiation is at a stalemate [5]. - Medium - to - long - term: Crude oil is in a bearish pattern due to OPEC supply policies and supply - demand surplus [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Price Data - **International Crude Oil**: From May 27 to June 3, WTI increased by $2.62 to $63.41, BRENT increased by $2.85 to $65.63, and DUBAI increased by $1.16 to $64.89 [3]. - **Domestic Oil Products**: From May 27 to June 3, domestic gasoline increased by 50 yuan to 7710 yuan, and domestic diesel increased by 63 yuan to 6639 yuan [3]. - **Other Oil - Related Products**: From May 27 to June 3, Japan naphtha CFR decreased by $9.59, Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by $10, and HH natural gas decreased by $0.16 [3][12]. 3.2 News and Events - **US - Iran Negotiation**: The US proposed allowing Iran to conduct low - level uranium enrichment, but Iranian officials said the proposal was "incoherent and disjointed", and the next round of talks' time is uncertain. Iran will respond in a few days [3][4]. - **OPEC Production**: OPEC's crude oil production in May increased by 200,000 barrels per day to 27.54 million barrels per day [4]. - **US API Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 30 was - 3.3 million barrels, exceeding the expected - 0.9 million barrels [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Report**: In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a decrease of 0.63%; strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, an increase of 0.2% [4][5]. - **China's Oil Market**: This week, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [5]. 3.4 Market Analysis - **Supply**: US shale oil drilling rig numbers continue to decline. OPEC increased production by 411,000 barrels per day as expected in July, and Iran's production increased in April. The internal production compliance rate of OPEC + increased in April [5]. - **Demand**: Global refinery profits declined slightly but are still at a high level compared to the same period last year. US refinery operations were volatile and slightly lower than expected. The summer travel season has begun, and the demand for gasoline and jet fuel has increased [5].