Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Polyolefins - PP shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, with reduced maintenance driving supply recovery and a slight reduction in inventory. PE shows increased supply and decreased demand, with ample imported goods and weakening demand except for agricultural films. Overall, the 01 contract still faces significant pressure [2]. Crude Oil - During the US Thanksgiving, trading was light, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks were uncertain, leading to a slight increase in overnight oil prices. However, due to OPEC+ continuous production increase and record - high US crude oil production, the supply - demand pattern remains weak. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level, with short - term focus on the $60/barrel support for Brent crude and the results of the Russia - Ukraine talks [4]. Natural Rubber - On the supply side, domestic production areas are gradually entering the production - reducing and cutting - off season, and floods in southern Thailand and Vietnam need time to recede, providing strong cost support. However, the arrival of overseas shipments is increasing seasonally, and inventory accumulation suppresses spot prices. On the demand side, overall demand is weak, and the market mainly digests channel inventory. Natural rubber is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation, with the price likely to weaken if raw material supply is smooth, and to run in the 15000 - 15500 range if supply is restricted [6]. Methanol - In the inland market, Jiutai's maintenance is over, and subsequent domestic production will continue to increase. Currently, marginal inland plants are in the red. In Iran, some plants have started gas - restricted shutdowns, improving market sentiment and strengthening the futures price and basis. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [8][9]. LPG No specific overall view provided in the given content. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: New production capacity and plant restarts are expected, and although some plants are reducing production, supply remains loose. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and some loss - making varieties are reducing production. Port inventory is rising, and short - term prices may be dragged down by oil prices. The strategy is to short on rebounds for BZ2603 in the short term. - Styrene: With profit recovery, some plants are increasing production, but planned and unplanned shutdowns and maintenance are also increasing, limiting supply. Downstream demand support is limited, and overseas blending demand is cooling, but there are still export expectations. The short - term supply - demand outlook is improving, but the rebound space is limited. EB01 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. Ester Industry Chain - PX: Short - term supply is relatively high, and demand is weak due to PTA plant maintenance and weakening terminal demand. The short - term driver is limited, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is tight, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. - PTA: Supply reduction exceeds expectations, and demand from polyester is supported. Exports are expected to increase. The supply - demand outlook is improving, and the basis is recovering. It is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term, and the strategy is to go long on the TA month - spread at low levels. - Ethylene Glycol (EG): Polyester demand provides some support, but supply from coal - based plants is increasing, and imports are expected to be high. The port inventory has limited downward space. The strategy is to short the EG1 - 5 spread at high levels. - Short - fiber: Supply remains high, and demand is seasonally weak. The absolute price has limited drivers, and processing fees are expected to be compressed. - Bottle chips: Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline. The strategy is to short the processing fee [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda Ash: Recent production has declined, and inventory has decreased, supporting the futures price. However, the medium - term oversupply problem persists, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid level. The supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy is to wait for short - selling opportunities after rebounds. - Glass: News of production line shutdowns in Hubei has boosted the market sentiment, and the futures price has rebounded, driving better spot sales. There is still some short - term rigid demand, but long - term demand is a concern, especially with the approaching winter in the north. The market still needs capacity clearance to solve the oversupply problem. The 01 contract may face pressure near the delivery month [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: The industry still faces supply - demand pressure. Regional supply in East China will decrease next week, but with the monthly contract signing, the spot price in East China is expected to decline if the futures price remains weakening. The demand from the main downstream, alumina, is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the long term. - PVC: The spot market remains weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is sluggish, especially during the traditional off - season from November to January. Although the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected anti - dumping tax implementation limits external demand. The supply - demand pattern is in surplus, and the price is expected to continue to be weak at the bottom [16]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601 and L2605 prices decreased slightly, while PP2601 and PP2605 prices increased. L15, LP01 spreads decreased, and PP15 spread increased. Spot prices of some products changed slightly [2]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP inventories decreased, with PE enterprise inventory down 9.80% and PP enterprise inventory down 8.00% [2]. - **开工率**: PE device operating rate increased by 2.17%, and PP powder operating rate increased by 6.93%, while PP device operating rate decreased slightly [2]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI prices increased slightly, while SC price decreased. Some spreads such as Brent - WTI decreased [4]. - **Refined Oil**: NYM RBOB price increased, while NYM ULSD and ICE Gasoil prices decreased [4]. Natural Rubber - **Prices and Spreads**: Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices increased slightly, and some spreads changed [6]. - **Fundamentals**: September production in Thailand, Indonesia, etc. changed, and October tire production, exports, and natural rubber imports decreased [6]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory and warehouse futures inventory increased, while some出库 and入库 rates changed [6]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 and MA2605 prices increased, and some spreads and basis changed [8]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 4.19%, while port and social inventories decreased [8]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed, with downstream - formaldehyde operating rate increasing by 2.73% [9]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: PG2512, PG2601, etc. prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [11]. - **Inventory**: LPG refinery storage capacity ratio and port inventory decreased [11]. - **开工率**: Some upstream and downstream operating rates changed slightly [11]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and pure benzene changed slightly, and some spreads decreased [13]. - **Styrene - related Prices and Spreads**: Styrene spot and futures prices decreased slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased [13]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as domestic pure benzene and styrene changed [13]. Ester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Prices of some upstream products such as crude oil, naphtha, and PX changed slightly [14]. - **Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of some polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY changed slightly, and cash flows and processing fees of some products changed [14]. - **开工率**: Some industry operating rates such as PTA, MEG, and polyester changed [14]. Glass - Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass and soda ash spot and futures prices changed slightly, and some basis changed [15]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production and float glass and photovoltaic daily melting volume decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: Glass and soda ash inventories decreased [15]. - **Real Estate Data**: New construction area, construction area, etc. changed, with some showing a decline [15]. PVC - Caustic Soda - **Prices and Spreads**: Prices of caustic soda and PVC changed slightly, and some spreads and basis changed [16]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: Overseas quotes of caustic soda and PVC decreased, and export profits changed [16]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda and PVC operating rates increased slightly [16]. - **Demand**: Operating rates of some downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC changed [16]. - **Inventory**: Some inventories of caustic soda and PVC changed [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall performance of oil prices is under pressure and fluctuates repeatedly due to the possible peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Various energy and chemical products are expected to show a volatile trend [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI January contract closed down $0.89 to $57.95 per barrel, a decline of 1.51%; Brent January contract closed down $0.89 to $62.48 per barrel, a decline of 1.4%; SC2601 closed at 443 yuan per barrel, down 4.4 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.98%. OPEC+ may keep production unchanged, and India's crude oil imports from Russia will change. The oil price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.36% at 2491 yuan per ton; the low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2601 closed down 1.31% at 3015 yuan per ton. The supply in December may tighten, and the absolute prices of FU and LU remain weak for now [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.19% at 3068 yuan per ton. The spot market exerts pressure on the futures, and the supply-demand pattern is expected to remain loose. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed down 0.51% at 4656 yuan per ton; EG2601 closed down 0.28% at 3873 yuan per ton. The production and operation of the polyester industry have certain characteristics, and the prices of relevant products are expected to fluctuate [2]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 closed down 195 yuan per ton to 15125 yuan per ton. The supply and demand are both weak, but the futures price is expected to be supported [3][4]. - **Methanol**: The prices of related products are given. The supply at home and abroad changes, and the port inventory is expected to decrease. The price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][4][6]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply will remain high, and the demand will weaken. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The supply remains high, and the domestic demand slows down. The price may fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread strategy [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on November 25th and 24th, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, etc. [8]. 3.3 Market News - Multiple news media reported that Ukraine has reached an agreement on the terms of a potential peace agreement, and President Zelensky may visit the US to finalize the agreement to end the Russia-Ukraine war [13]. - Kpler's preliminary data shows that India's crude oil imports from Russia in November will reach the highest level in five months [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [15][16][17]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [32][33][38]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: It shows the spread trends of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [46][47][48]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: It includes the spread and ratio trends between different varieties, such as the spread between crude oil's domestic and foreign markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [62][65][67]. - **Production Profit**: It shows the production profit trends of LLDPE and PP [70]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experience [75][76][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, natural rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: The potential easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the increasing probability of an interest rate cut in December have driven up oil prices, but there are still uncertainties, so short - term oil prices will continue to fluctuate [1] - **Fuel Oil**: The spot supply is relatively sufficient in the short term, but the arrival volume in December may tighten. The high - sulfur market is strongly supported by demand, and the absolute prices of FU and LU are temporarily weak [2] - **Asphalt**: The current spot market still exerts pressure on the futures market. The social inventory is about 15% higher than the same period in previous years, and the downstream demand continues to weaken. The market is expected to be in a loose supply - demand pattern, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [2] - **Polyester**: The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. The PX fundamentals have strong expectations but weak reality, and the near - month price is under pressure. The PTA supply reduction exceeds expectations, and the price will follow the raw material price. The ethylene glycol price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [2][4] - **Natural Rubber**: The supply and demand are both weak. After the concentrated cancellation of natural rubber warehouse receipts, the virtual - to - physical ratio of the 01 contract increases. The futures price is expected to be supported [4] - **Methanol**: Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a significant decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. The port inventory is likely to enter a destocking phase, driving the methanol price to rebound, but there is an upper limit, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken. The market will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the price is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply remains high, and the domestic demand slows down. The fundamental driving force is weak, but the price may bottom - out and fluctuate, and short - term attention can be paid to the 1 - 5 positive spread strategy [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI January contract rose $0.78 to $58.84 per barrel, a 1.34% increase; Brent January contract rose $0.81 to $63.37 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; SC2601 closed at 449.4 yuan per barrel, up 4.2 yuan per barrel, a 0.94% increase. The US proposed a 28 - point new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. From January to October 2025, Kazakhstan's crude oil and condensate production increased by 14.3% year - on - year to 83.614 million tons [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, FU2601, fell 0.67% to 2512 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2601, fell 2.44% to 3041 yuan per ton. Singapore's low - sulfur fuel oil arrivals from the Western market in November are expected to be 2.9 - 3 million tons, higher than 2.5 - 2.6 million tons in October [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, BU2601, rose 0.82% to 3060 yuan per ton. The current spot market still pressures the futures market, and the refineries are still releasing a large number of low - price contracts. The social inventory is about 15% higher than the same period in previous years [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4680 yuan per ton on Monday, up 0.3%; EG2601 closed at 3884 yuan per ton, up 2%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, with an average production and sales rate of 40% - 50%. The MEG port inventory in the East China main port area on November 24 was about 732,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [2] - **Natural Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber, RU2601, rose 80 yuan per ton to 15,320 yuan per ton; the main contract of NR fell 10 yuan per ton to 12,275 yuan per ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 10 yuan per ton to 10,395 yuan per ton. From November 16 to 21, the natural rubber inventory in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone increased by 0.48 million tons to 74,100 tons, a 6.93% increase [4] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2053 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1987.5 yuan per ton. The domestic device operation is stable, and the supply has returned to a high level. Iranian devices have stopped due to gas restrictions, and there are still plans to stop in the future [5] - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6300 - 6500 yuan per ton. The supply will remain high, and the downstream demand will weaken [5] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the price in the East China PVC market was adjusted strongly, and the price in the North China market was raised. The supply remains high, and the domestic real - estate construction will gradually slow down [6] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - It shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes of various energy and chemical products on November 24 and 21, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that US crude oil, distillate, and gasoline inventories are expected to increase last week. As of the week of November 21, US crude oil inventory is expected to increase by about 650,000 barrels. Fed Governor Waller said that the US employment market is still weak, which may prompt the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the December 9 - 10 meeting [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It includes the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [12][13][14][15][17][18][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][28] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [29][31][32][33][35][37][39] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [41][42][43][44][47][48][50][51][52][53][54][55][56][57] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It shows the spread charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - and low - sulfur spreads, etc. [58][59][61][62][63][65][69] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It includes the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [66][67] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - It introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, research areas, and professional qualifications [71][72][73][74]

Core Points - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced starting from November 24, 2023, due to the decline in international oil prices [1][3] - The price adjustments include a decrease of 70 yuan per ton for gasoline and 65 yuan per ton for diesel, translating to a reduction of 0.05 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline and 0.06 yuan per liter for both 95-octane gasoline and 0 diesel [3][4] - The logistics industry will benefit significantly, with estimated fuel cost savings of approximately 106 yuan per heavy truck running 10,000 kilometers before the next price adjustment [3][4] Industry Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) indicates that international oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to oversupply and reduced geopolitical risk premiums [4][6] - Major institutions, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), and OPEC, predict a supply surplus in the oil market for the next two years, with the IEA raising its 2026 surplus forecast to 4.09 million barrels per day [4][6] - Geopolitical developments, such as the U.S. pushing for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, and increased military tensions in the Caribbean, may further impact oil supply risks and market sentiment [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, oil prices remained volatile. News of potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on Thursday and the suspension of oil exports from Russia's Novorossiysk port due to an attack on Friday caused intraday fluctuations. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of oversupply and increased uncertainty regarding Russian sanctions risks. The US sanctions on Russia will take effect on November 21, and the short - term statements of the US and Russia will affect market expectations. The US EIA commercial crude oil inventory has increased, while the global oil inventory has slightly decreased. Due to high gasoline and diesel profits, the refinery operations in Europe and the US have recently recovered, and the maintenance rate of Middle Eastern refineries remains high. In the short term, the interruption of Russian ports supports the Dubai monthly spread, but the global supply pressure and the potential OPEC production increase plan limit the upside. In the short term, the monthly spread and absolute prices will maintain a volatile pattern, and a short - selling strategy is recommended for the fourth quarter [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - **Crude Oil Prices**: From November 11 - 17, BRENT crude oil price decreased by $0.57 to $63.82, DUBAI decreased by $0.18 to $65.00. SC increased by 0.70 to 458.10, and OMAN decreased by $0.40 to $64.46 [3]. - **Product Prices**: From November 11 - 17, NYMEX RB, RBOB - BR, NYMEX HO, HO - BRT, and other product prices showed corresponding changes. For example, the change in the difference between DUBAI - BRT was 0.22, and the change in the difference between SC - BRT was 0.68 [3]. - **Domestic Product Prices**: From November 11 - 17, domestic gasoline price increased by 20.00 to 7100, and the difference between domestic gasoline - BRT increased by 54.00 to 3335. Domestic diesel price increased by 5.00 to 6440, and the difference between domestic diesel - BRT increased by 35.00 to 3118 [3]. 3.2 Daily News - US President Trump said he would not rule out any possibilities regarding Venezuela and that any country doing business with Russia would be sanctioned, and Iran might be added to the list [3][4]. - Three Iraqi energy officials stated that the Iraqi government is discussing applying to the US Treasury for a six - month exemption to allow Lukoil to sell its stake in the West Qurna - 2 oilfield [4]. - Market news reported that Sudan's energy facilities were attacked, and oil exports were interrupted [4]. - As of the week ending November 17, the crude oil arrival volume of Shandong independent refineries was 2.67 million tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons from the previous week, a decline of 2.73%. Compared with the same period last year, the arrival volume was 2.039 million tons, a decrease of 483,000 tons, a decline of 19.15%. The arriving crude oil was mainly medium - quality crude oil, with 795,000 tons of Russian crude oil arriving, and no new diluted bitumen arrived [4]. 3.3 Inventory - **US Inventory**: In the week ending November 7, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 2.816 million barrels per day, domestic crude oil production increased by 211,000 barrels to 13.862 million barrels per day, the API crude oil inventory was 1.3 million barrels (previous value: 6.521 million barrels), and the commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, an increase of 1.52%. The US strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, an increase of 0.19% [5][17]. - **Japanese Inventory**: As of the week ending November 8, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters compared with the previous week [6]. - **Venezuelan Inventory**: As of the week ending November 12, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels [17]. - **Gasoline and Diesel Inventory**: From November 7 - 13, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline inventory was 10.4149 million tons, a decrease of 1.52%, and diesel inventory was 12.8156 million tons, a decrease of 0.63%. The refinery profits of major and independent refineries rebounded [6].

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: November 14, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, exceeding market expectations. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in floating storage, and Russian oil is trading at its largest discount in India in nearly a year. Refining margins in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of Dangote Refinery supported gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Global oversupply and sanctions support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil is expected to trade in the range of $55 - $65 in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Data - From November 7 - 13, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated between $58.49 - $61.04, BRENT between $62.71 - $65.16, and DUBAI increased from $64.93 to $64.45 with a change of $0.18. Other related prices such as SC, OMAN, and various refined product prices also showed corresponding fluctuations [3]. 3.2. Daily News - Ukraine's drone attacks damaged apartment buildings and oil depots in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk [3]. - The Trump administration lifted the ban on oil extraction in the 23 - million - acre Alaska National Petroleum Reserve, reversing a ban implemented by President Biden. Alaska predicts that the oil field's crude production will rise to 139,600 barrels per day in fiscal year 2033, up from 15,800 barrels per day in fiscal year 2023 [4]. - Russian refineries are increasing the utilization of idle capacity to make up for losses caused by Ukrainian drone attacks [4]. - The IEA said that US sanctions may have a profound impact on Russia's crude production outlook, but it maintains its estimate of Russia's average daily crude output of 9.3 million barrels this quarter and next year [4]. 3.3. Inventory Data - In the week ending November 7, US crude exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 2.816 million barrels per day; domestic crude production increased by 211,000 barrels to 13.862 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, a 1.52% increase; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.222 million barrels per day, a decrease of 702,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4][5]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined product inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week [6]. - As of the week ending November 8, Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters [6]. - From October 31 - November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, with gasoline at 10.5757 million tons (down 0.4%) and diesel at 12.8962 million tons (down 1.82%) [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, with the increase higher than market expectations. Recently, Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in on - board oil storage, and the trading price of Russian oil in the Indian market has hit the largest discount in nearly a year. This week, refining profits in Europe and the US rebounded. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of the Dangote refinery supported the gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. The global fundamental surplus and sanctions factors support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil maintains a volatile pattern, expected to fluctuate in the range of $55 - 65 in Q4 [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Daily News - Russia is ready to resume negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul [4]. - Lukoil has applied to the US Treasury to extend the deadline for the ban on transactions after November 21 [4]. - The US Energy Department has awarded a contract to purchase about 1 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve [4]. 3.2. Production Data - In October, Saudi Arabia's crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 10.003 million barrels per day; Venezuela's decreased by 7,000 barrels per day to 956,000 barrels per day; the UAE's increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 3.361 million barrels per day; Iraq's increased by 34,000 barrels per day to 4.098 million barrels per day; Libya's decreased by 30,000 barrels per day to 1.283 million barrels per day; Congo's increased by 1,000 barrels per day to 264,000 barrels per day; Kuwait's increased by 37,000 barrels per day to 2.552 million barrels per day; OPEC's increased by 33,000 barrels per day to 28.46 million barrels per day; Nigeria's increased by 15,000 barrels per day to 1.506 million barrels per day; Algeria's increased by 4,000 barrels per day to 956,000 barrels per day; Iran's decreased by 66,000 barrels per day to 3.209 million barrels per day; Guinea's decreased by 4,000 barrels per day to 48,000 barrels per day [5]. 3.3. Inventory Data - For the week ending October 31, US crude oil exports increased by 6,000 barrels per day to 4.367 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels to 13.651 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 5.202 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 1.25% increase; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 498,000 barrels to 409.6 million barrels, a 0.12% increase; crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.924 million barrels per day, an increase of 873,000 barrels per day from the previous week; the EIA Cushing crude oil inventory was 300,000 barrels (previous value: 1.334 million barrels); the EIA gasoline inventory was - 4.729 million barrels (expected: - 1.14 million barrels, previous value: - 5.941 million barrels); the EIA refined oil inventory was - 643,000 barrels (expected: - 1.969 million barrels, previous value: - 3.362 million barrels) [6]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week [7]. - As of the week ending November 8, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters [7]. - For the week ending November 7, the API crude oil inventory in the US was 1.3 million barrels (previous value: 6.521 million barrels) [7]. - From October 31 to November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. Gasoline was 10.5757 million tons, a 0.4% decrease, and diesel was 12.8962 million tons, a 1.82% decrease. The inventories of both gasoline and diesel from major refineries and local refineries decreased, while those from social sources increased. The comprehensive refining profit of major refineries rebounded, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries fluctuated at a low level [7]. 3.4. Price Data - From November 6 - 12, WTI decreased by $2.55, Brent decreased by $2.45, and Dubai decreased by $1.69. The SC price increased by 7.40, and the Oman price remained unchanged. The price of domestic gasoline increased by 40, and that of domestic diesel increased by 27 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the petrochemical sector, specifically recommending China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, CNOOC, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [4]. Core Views - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in Q1 2026, with a planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December 2025. The next meeting is scheduled for November 30, 2025. The market sentiment has improved due to this decision, but concerns about weak demand and oversupply remain, leading to expectations of price fluctuations in the short term [1][7]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers, which has led Turkish refiners to reduce purchases of Russian crude and seek alternatives from Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan [1][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with strong performance and high dividends, specifically China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, and CNOOC, due to their stable earnings and growth potential [10]. Oil Supply and Demand - As of October 31, 2025, U.S. crude oil production reached 13.65 million barrels per day, an increase of 10,000 barrels from the previous week. Refinery throughput also rose to 15.26 million barrels per day, up by 40,000 barrels [8][9]. - U.S. crude oil inventories increased, with strategic reserves at 409.6 million barrels, up by 500,000 barrels week-on-week [9]. Price Trends - As of November 7, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down 2.21% from the previous week, while WTI futures settled at $59.75 per barrel, down 2.02% [8][34]. - The report notes a decrease in LNG prices in Northeast Asia, with the price at $11.02 per million British thermal units, down 1.63% week-on-week [8][37]. Company Performance - The report indicates that the petrochemical sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 4.6% increase in the sector compared to a 0.8% increase in the CSI 300 index as of November 7, 2025 [11][14]. - Key companies such as Zhongjie Oil and Gas and Hengtong Petrochemical have shown significant weekly gains, with increases of 15.61% and 8.20%, respectively [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overnight crude oil failed to maintain its upward momentum and declined, ending the session slightly lower. Saudi Aramco's reduction of the official selling price to Asia dampened some of the market's optimistic sentiment. The impact of sanctions on Russia has begun to show, but it is weak and its sustainability remains to be seen. It is estimated that Russia's oil exports from its western ports in November will slightly decline, but still remain close to recent historical highs. In the short term, there is not enough support for a significant increase in oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate. The SC2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: After the US imposed a new round of sanctions on major Russian oil producers, major refineries in India and China reduced their purchases, causing the trading price of Russian oil in Asia to show the largest discount to Brent crude in a year. Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil sold to Asia in December. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asia by $1.20 per barrel, to a premium of $1 per barrel over the regional benchmark. The overall assessment is neutral [3] - **Basis**: On November 6, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.95 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.51 per barrel. The basis was 30.99 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3] - **Inventory**: For the week ending October 31, the API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 6.521 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels). The inventory in the Cushing area increased by 30 barrels. As of November 6, the inventory of Shanghai crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3.47 million barrels, which is a bearish signal [3] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the moving average, which is a bearish signal [3] - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions of the WTI crude oil main contract increased, and as of October 28, the long positions of the Brent crude oil main contract also increased, which is a bullish signal [3] - **Expectation**: Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the SC2512 contract trading in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3] 2. Recent News - **Saudi Arabia's Pricing Adjustment**: Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil sold to Asia in December. Saudi Aramco cut the price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia by $1.20 per barrel, to a premium of $1 per barrel over the regional benchmark. It also cut the prices of medium and heavy crude oils by $1.40 per barrel and the prices of ultra - light and extra - light crude oils by $1.20 per barrel. Saudi Arabia and some major OPEC+ members announced that they would suspend production increases in the first quarter to balance market share competition and potential supply gluts. London market crude oil has fallen nearly 15% this year and is currently trading below $65 [5] - **US Employment Situation**: Private data shows that US employment decreased in October due to government and retail sectors. The number of announced layoffs soared by 37% to 43,600 in October, and the planned layoff number in October soared by 183% to 153,074, the highest in the same period in 22 years [5] - **Fed's Stance**: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that high inflation levels are not conducive to the Fed's further interest rate cuts, and she is worried that monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with current inflation [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: There are optimistic signals in Sino - US trade negotiations, the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ is considering further production increases [6] - **Market Drivers**: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified in the short term, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all declined. Their decline rates were - 0.22%, - 0.29%, - 0.35%, and - 1.43% respectively [7] - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all declined. Their decline rates were - 0.96%, - 0.29%, - 1.65%, - 0.67%, and - 1.37% respectively [9] - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventories both increased in the week ending October 31. API inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels [3][10][12] 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 4,249 [16] - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of October 28, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 119,046 [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On November 5, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $59.60 per barrel, down 1.59% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $63.52 per barrel, down 1.43% [1] - **Naphtha**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan on November 5, 2025, was $577.50 per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **PX**: The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port on November 5, 2025, was $816.00 per ton, up 0.18%; the domestic spot price was 6504.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **PTA**: The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - market on November 5, 2025, was 4510.00 yuan per ton, down 0.33%; the outer - market was $610.00 per ton (November 4), down 0.49% [1] - **PR**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market on November 5, 2025, was 5690.00 yuan per ton, down 0.44%; in the South China market, it was 5730.00 yuan per ton, down 0.52% [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, chip, and bottle - grade chip showed little change or a slight decline on November 5, 2025 [2] Spread Information - **PXN Spread**: On November 5, 2025, it was $238.50 per ton, up 0.21% [1] - **PX - MX Spread**: On November 5, 2025, it was $129.00 per ton, up 0.78% [1] - **Near - far Month Spread of PTA**: On November 5, 2025, it was - 36.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan [1] - **Basis**: The basis of PTA was - 90.00 yuan per ton on November 5, 2025, a decrease of 11.00 yuan; the basis of PX was - 146.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan; the basis of PR in the East China market was 28.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 21.00 yuan; in the South China market, it was 68.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26.00 yuan [1] Operating Rate Information - On November 5, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 77.84%, down 1.82%; the polyester factory load rate was 89.56%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 75.63%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales Rate Information - On November 5, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 52.59%, up 4.44%; the production and sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 38.35%, down 4.26%; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 46.28%, down 22.17% [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (design capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy's No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the old one will be shut down [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: With the cooling of the overall risk appetite in the financial market, oil prices fluctuated and closed down. The domestic PX device supply was stable, and the demand - side PTA had both maintenance and restart. Some domestic PX plants had reformer maintenance, but the market supply remained stable with the supplement of toluene and xylene. Overseas devices ran smoothly. A 700,000 - ton device in the Northeast was expanded to 1 million tons and was increasing production [2] - **PTA**: The market focus returned to the fundamentals. PTA spot supply was sufficient. The crude oil market fluctuated narrowly, and downstream demand was stable. A 2.7 - million - ton PTA device in East China started trial operation, which had limited impact on the market. The supply - side production reduction expectation failed, and downstream demand was generally weak [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5670 - 5790 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated narrowly. The supply - side offers mostly decreased, and downstream purchasing willingness was low [2] Trading Strategy - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]