Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, reaching 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [1] - The growth rates of social financing and broad money (M2) remain high, indicating that monetary finance continues to create a favorable environment for economic recovery [1] - The net financing from government bonds reached 11.46 trillion yuan, contributing significantly to the social financing scale, while corporate bond financing also increased due to supportive policies [7] Financial Statistics - In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits rose by 22.71 trillion yuan [1] - As of the end of September, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4% [1] - The narrow money (M1) growth rate rose to 7.2% by the end of September, reflecting increased economic activity and consumer demand [6][10] Credit Growth - The growth of new RMB loans in September was stable, with a monthly increase of approximately 1.29 trillion yuan [8] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was about 3.1%, which is 40 basis points lower than the same period last year [9] - The structure of loans continues to optimize, with inclusive small and micro loans growing by 12.2% year-on-year [8] Direct Financing - Direct financing, particularly through government and corporate bonds, accounted for over 43% of the new social financing, indicating a shift from traditional bank loans [7] - The proportion of RMB loans in the social financing scale decreased to 48%, highlighting the increasing role of diverse financing channels [7] Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" reflects a reallocation of residents' assets in response to changing return rates, with significant increases in both resident deposits and non-bank financial institution deposits [11] - The overall economic environment remains characterized by low inflation and low interest rates, with expectations for continued monetary support for the real economy [9][11]

Core Viewpoint - The demand has been weak since Q3 2025, leading to a continued suppression of credit issuance, with a year-on-year decrease in readings [4][6] Group 1: Credit and Financing - It is expected that new RMB loans in September will be around 1.3 to 1.5 trillion, with a year-on-year decrease of 900 to 2900 billion, resulting in a month-end growth rate of approximately 6.6% to 6.7% [4][5] - The corporate credit issuance has increased on a month-on-month basis, while retail loans remain relatively weak [5] - New social financing is projected to be between 3 to 3.2 trillion in September, with a year-on-year decrease of about 5200 to 7200 billion, and a growth rate of around 8.5% to 8.6% [6] Group 2: Monetary Conditions - The monetary activation level is expected to improve further in September, with M1 growth continuing to rise while M2 growth slightly declines [7][8] - Factors influencing private sector deposit growth include increased government spending and a shift of government deposits to residents and enterprises [7] - The M2 growth rate may drop below 8.5% due to a high base from last year's capital market activation [8]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the bond market and macroeconomic conditions in China, particularly in relation to interest rates and economic growth forecasts [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Economic Data Predictions**: August economic data is expected to weaken due to factors like anti-involution policies, but a rebound may occur in September due to seasonal end-of-quarter effects. If the current pace of industrial value-added growth is maintained, it could exceed 6% for the year, with GDP growth projected above 5% [1][4][5]. 2. **Bond Market Performance**: The bond market is currently underperforming, influenced by seasonal institutional behaviors and regulatory pressures. However, there may be opportunities in the fourth quarter [6]. 3. **Impact of New Lending Regulations**: New regulations on centralized lending are expected to have limited short-term negative effects but aim to improve market mechanisms in the long term, benefiting short-selling activities [7]. 4. **Conditions for Resuming Government Bond Trading**: The resumption of government bond trading is contingent on factors such as Sino-US relations, economic fundamentals, fiscal expansion, and financial risks. There is a high necessity for this to occur within the year [8][9]. 5. **Market Impact of Resuming Bond Trading**: Resuming government bond trading is seen as a positive development for the market, increasing demand for bonds, providing medium to long-term liquidity, and reducing costs for financial institutions, which helps stabilize market expectations [10]. 6. **Social Financing Data**: Recent social financing data shows a decline in growth for August, raising concerns about whether this trend will continue and if local government debt funds will be disbursed early in the fourth quarter [11]. 7. **Trends in Deposits**: There is a notable decrease in resident deposits below seasonal norms, while non-bank deposits have surged, primarily due to the expansion of wealth management products leading to financial disintermediation. This trend should not be simplistically interpreted as funds moving into the stock market [12][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Strategy Recommendation**: In the current high-interest rate environment, a barbell strategy is recommended for investment portfolios, focusing on medium to high-grade credit bonds for the short term and long-term government bonds for flexibility [2][14]. Specific recommendations include 25T6 for three-year government bonds and 250,215 for ten-year bonds from the China Development Bank [2][14].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)】 股指继续上行，市场成交缩量 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-9-15 郑雨婷 从业资格证号：F3074875 投资咨询证号：Z0017779 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 股指观点概述 | 影响因 素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8月社融增速首次回落。8月新增社会融资2.57万亿元，同比少增4630亿元，低于近五年同期均值。社融存量增速在连续10个月回升后首次回落 | | 经济和企 | 中性 | 至8.8%。政府债券净融资同比少增2519亿元，为2023年11月以来首次下降，也成为社融的主要拖累。企业短期贷款同比多增2600亿元，创2013 | | 业盈利 | | 年以来同期新高，或反映银行以短贷"冲量"信贷。居民短贷仅增105亿元，再创历史新低，显示消费意愿低迷。M1同比增速微升至6%，增幅 | | | | 放缓，或仍受基数影响。 | | | | 财 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the banking industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 5% [9][24]. Core Viewpoints - The growth rate of social financing (社融) has declined for the first time this year, primarily due to weak credit demand and a decrease in government bonds, with August's social financing year-on-year growth at 8.8% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.2 percentage points [9][10]. - The report highlights a significant drop in new loans, with a year-on-year decrease of 3,100 billion yuan in August, reflecting ongoing challenges in the credit market [14][20]. - M1 growth shows a trend of improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 6.0% in August, although non-bank deposits have cooled compared to previous months [20][21]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit - In August 2025, social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, which was higher than market expectations, but still represented a year-on-year decrease of 4,630 billion yuan [9][10]. - The report notes that the decline in social financing is largely driven by a reduction in both corporate loans and government bonds, with corporate direct financing also seeing a slight decrease [11][12]. Loan Dynamics - Total RMB loans grew by 6.8% year-on-year in August, with new loans amounting to 590 billion yuan, slightly above expectations but still reflecting a year-on-year decrease [14][15]. - The report identifies a "seesaw" effect between short-term corporate loans and bill discounting, indicating a strategic shift in bank lending practices [15][16]. Deposit Trends - In August, M1 and M2 growth rates were 6.0% and 8.8% respectively, with a narrowing gap between the two [20][21]. - New RMB deposits totaled 2.06 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1,600 billion yuan, indicating a shift in deposit behavior among residents and enterprises [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment themes: high-dividend stocks due to insurance rate adjustments and fundamentally strong small to medium-sized banks [24]. - Specific stock recommendations include China Construction Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and others, with some rated as "Buy" [24].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - In August 2025, new loans increased significantly less year - on - year, and credit demand remained weak. The mortgage prepayment pressure may rise, and credit demand may be weak in the long - term. In September, banks may boost loan balance data through ultra - short - term loans, and new loans in October may be very low [2] - In recent years, individuals have deleveraged while enterprises have increased leverage, leading to rising corporate debt pressure. Personal consumption is sluggish, and corporate profitability is worrying [2] - In August, the M2 growth rate was flat month - on - month, and the M1 growth rate rebounded month - on - month. It is expected that the M1 growth rate will decline in the fourth quarter [2] - The social financing growth rate may have reached a stage peak. It is expected that new loans will increase less year - on - year in 2025, government bond net financing will expand significantly year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate may rise first and then fall, reaching about 8.1% at the end of the year [2] - The 10 - year government bond may have allocation value for bank self - operations. It is expected that the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will be between 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Credit Data - On September 12, 2025, the central bank disclosed that in August, new loans were 59 billion yuan, and social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan. At the end of August, M2 reached 332.0 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; M1 increased by 6.0% year - on - year; the social financing growth rate was 8.8% [1] - In August, new loans increased 31 billion yuan less year - on - year. Personal loans increased 3.03 billion yuan, including 1.05 billion yuan in short - term personal loans and 2 billion yuan in medium - and long - term personal loans, a significant year - on - year decrease. Corporate short - term loans increased 7 billion yuan, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased 47 billion yuan, and bill financing increased 5.31 billion yuan [2] Leverage and Financial Situation - As of the end of August 2025, the ratio of personal loans to deposit balances was only 52.7%, a decrease of 17.6 percentage points compared with the end of May 2022. Since 2021, the difference between personal deposits and loans has increased significantly, while that of corporate has decreased significantly [2] Monetary Supply - The central bank has used the new M1 caliber since January 2025. As of the end of August 2025, the new M1 balance was 111.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of 76.9 billion yuan from the beginning of the year. The M2 growth rate in August was 8.8%, flat month - on - month [2] Social Financing - In August, the social financing increment was 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.46 trillion yuan. The decrease mainly came from credit and government bond net financing. The social financing growth rate at the end of August was 8.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the end of the previous month [2] - It is predicted that in 2025, social financing will be 34.6909 trillion yuan, with new loans of 16.28 trillion yuan, a decrease of 76.95 billion yuan year - on - year; government bond net financing of 13.77 trillion yuan, an increase of 247.46 billion yuan year - on - year [22]

Financial Data Forecast - In August, the expected new social financing (社融新增) is approximately 1.98 trillion RMB, with a growth rate of 8.7%[7] - The forecast for new credit (信贷新增) in August is around 350 billion RMB, with a growth rate of 6.7%[4] - M2 growth is projected at 8.6% year-on-year, with an estimated increase of 12,985 billion RMB in total M2[10] Loan and Financing Insights - Expected new household loans are around -100 billion RMB, significantly lower than the previous year's 190 billion RMB[4] - Corporate loans are anticipated to be approximately 6,500 billion RMB, with a notable decline from the previous year's average of 3,000 billion RMB[4] - The total expected new loans from non-bank financial institutions is about 3,500 billion RMB, down from an average of 12,000 billion RMB over the past three years[10] Government Debt and Financing - Government net financing is estimated at 13,290 billion RMB for 2025, with a breakdown of 8,489 billion RMB from national bonds and 4,801 billion RMB from local bonds[8] - In August, the net financing from government bonds is projected to be around 13,000 billion RMB, compared to 18,000 billion RMB in the same month last year[10] Market Trends - The real estate market remains weak, with a decline in average daily transaction area for new homes in 30 cities by 0.1% month-on-month[4] - The auto market shows improvement, with a 22% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales of passenger cars[4]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the bond market and financial data predictions for August 2025, highlighting the expected decline in social financing growth and its potential negative impact on economic growth and fixed asset investment [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Social Financing Growth**: - Social financing growth is expected to decline significantly from 9.0% at the end of July to approximately 8.1% by year-end, which may negatively affect economic growth and fixed asset investment [2][3]. - Historical data indicates that social financing growth typically leads nominal GDP growth by one to two quarters [3][4]. 2. **Bond Market Outlook**: - The bond market is anticipated to remain volatile, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.8% [1][5]. - Current bond market conditions are characterized by low revenue growth for listed companies, aligning with the bond market's performance [1][5]. 3. **Stock Market Performance**: - Despite the stock market outperforming expectations, with the All A index doubling since last year, the operating performance of listed companies has not significantly improved [6]. - The actual growth rate of the Chinese economy remains low, indicating that the bond market may continue to experience volatility [6]. 4. **Government Leverage and Financing Demand**: - There is a lack of motivation for individuals and market-oriented enterprises to increase leverage, leading to a reliance on government leverage to drive financing demand [7]. - The anticipated increase in government bond issuance may not offset the ongoing weakness in other financing demands, posing challenges to the overall financial environment [7]. 5. **Investment Recommendations**: - A bullish stance on 30-year long-term government bonds is recommended, with a focus on high-value products such as 30-year national development bonds and 10-year capital bonds [12][13]. - Investors with lower risk tolerance are advised to consider long positions in 10-year national development bonds due to potential price increases when yields decline [12][13]. 6. **Southbound Trading Expansion**: - The expansion of southbound trading requires attention to the choice of custody models and the liquidity of the offshore RMB market, which can impact offshore RMB bond yields [14][16]. - The differences between multi-level direct custody and global custody models are highlighted, with implications for investment range and associated costs [15]. 7. **Regulatory Environment**: - The progress of domestic debt replacement for offshore debt is hindered by existing barriers, with few successful cases reported [17]. - Continuous observation of regulatory attitudes is necessary to determine if channels for domestic replacement can be opened, which would support the reduction of offshore credit risk [17][18]. Additional Important Points - The central bank's loose monetary policy and declining bank liability costs support the value of government bond allocations [1][9]. - The average cost of bank liabilities is expected to decrease further, enhancing the attractiveness of government bonds [9]. - The liquidity of the offshore RMB market is a critical factor influencing offshore RMB bond yields, with current conditions indicating manageable risks [16]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and forecasts from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current financial landscape and investment strategies.

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Forecasts for August 2025 include 850 billion yuan in new loans, 2.6 trillion yuan in social financing, M2 reaching 331.4 trillion yuan with a YoY increase of 8.6%, new - caliber M1 YoY growth of 5.9%, and a social financing growth rate of 8.8% [2] - Predicts that new loans in August may be low due to weak credit demand, with expected individual loans of +18 billion, corporate loans of +70 billion, and non - bank inter - bank loans of - 5 billion. Also anticipates short - term individual loans of +10 billion, long - term individual loans of +8 billion, short - term corporate loans of - 20 billion, long - term corporate loans of +40 billion, and bill financing of +50 billion [3] - Expects the new - caliber M1 growth rate to rebound and the M2 growth rate to slightly decline in August. Forecasts the new - caliber M1 growth rate at 5.9% (up month - on - month) and the old - caliber M1 growth rate at 5.4% (up month - on - month), and the M2 growth rate at 8.6% (down slightly month - on - month) [3] - Suggests that the social financing growth rate may start to fall. Predicts a social financing increment of 2.6 trillion yuan in August (less than the 3.03 trillion yuan in August 2024), with the social financing growth rate at 8.8% at the end of August, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. Expects new loans (social financing caliber) to be slightly less year - on - year, government bond net financing to expand significantly year - on - year, and the social financing growth rate to rise first and then fall, reaching around 8.1% at the end of the year [3] - Recommends going long on the bond market in September, based on expectations of central bank easing, potential economic downturn in the second half of the year, and banks increasing bond allocation due to weak credit demand and falling liability costs. Suggests focusing on 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs New Loans - Due to weak credit demand, new loans in the beginning of the quarter are usually low. The low 1 - month term transfer discount rate at the end of August reflects average credit issuance. Forecasts 850 billion yuan in new loans in August, close to the same period last year, with individual loans of +18 billion, corporate loans of +70 billion, and non - bank inter - bank loans of - 5 billion [3] M1 and M2 Growth Rates - Since January 2025, the central bank has used a new - caliber M1. Forecasts the new - caliber M1 growth rate at 5.9% and the old - caliber M1 growth rate at 5.4% at the end of August, both up month - on - month. Expects the M2 growth rate at 8.6% at the end of August, down slightly month - on - month [3] Social Financing - Predicts a social financing increment of 2.6 trillion yuan in August 2025, less than the 3.03 trillion yuan in August 2024. The decrease mainly comes from credit and government bond net financing. Expects 88 billion yuan in RMB loans to the real economy, +3 billion yuan in undiscounted bank acceptance bills, 15 billion yuan in corporate bond net financing, and 135 billion yuan in government bond net financing in August. Forecasts the social financing growth rate at 8.8% at the end of August, down 0.2 percentage points month - on - month, and anticipates it to reach around 8.1% at the end of the year [3] Bond Market - Recommends going long on the bond market in September, based on central bank easing, potential economic downturn in the second half of the year, and banks increasing bond allocation due to weak credit demand and falling liability costs. Suggests focusing on 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds [3]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the report is provided [1][2][6] Group 2: Core Views - Since August, the bond market has undergone significant adjustments, especially in the long - end, with the overall bond market showing a bear - steepening trend, and the interest rate adjustment exceeding that of credit. The market is concerned about the end of the adjustment and the opportunity and scope for the subsequent recovery. The bond market adjustment inflection point requires two conditions: the full release of pessimistic expectations and the emergence of at least one widely - recognized bullish main line [2][6][15] - Currently, the pessimistic expectations in the bond market may have been basically released. Three possible bullish main lines are: the stock and bond markets moving independently, the central bank's potential interest rate cut from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, and the confirmation of the inflection point of the social financing growth rate. Among them, the first and the third scenarios are more likely, while the expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut needs further observation. The current bond market inflection point signal is clear, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may face strong resistance around 1.8%. It is recommended to seize the bond market opportunities arising from the adjustment [2][10][38] Group 3: Summary by Directory 8 - month Bond Market Adjustment - Since August, the bond market has adjusted significantly, with the long - end adjustment being more prominent. From August 1st to 22nd, the 30 - year Treasury yield rose by 13bps to 2.08%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose by 8bps to 1.78%, while the short - end 1 - year Treasury yield slightly declined. The adjustment of 5 - year and 10 - year secondary bonds exceeded 10bps, and the adjustment of other credit products was mostly within 5bps [15] Bond Market Pessimistic Expectations - A typical bond market adjustment process is: slow decline - sharp decline - slow decline - stabilization, corresponding to market expectations of doubt - wavering - panic selling - recovery. If public funds conduct large - scale continuous net selling and insurance allocation power significantly increases, it can be judged that the bond market has probably been fully adjusted [10][17] - During the recent bond market adjustment, from June 17th to July 22nd, the bond market declined slowly; from July 23rd to 29th, it declined sharply, with public funds selling large - scale long - term interest - rate bonds and insurance increasing positions; from July 30th to August 8th, the market recovered; from August 11th to 22nd, it adjusted again, with public funds selling long - term interest - rate bonds and insurance increasing positions. The adjustment may have basically ended [18] - The decline in the liability costs of banks and insurance companies has increased the attractiveness of the bond market to allocation investors after the adjustment. When the 10 - year Treasury yield approaches 1.80% and the 30 - year Treasury yield approaches 2.1%, the adjustment momentum weakens [19] Bullish Main Lines - The most likely main line is that the stock market ends its unilateral upward trend, or the bond market moves independently of the stock market. Recently, the bond market has gradually shown independent movements. The stock - bond seesaw effect may not last. The current PMI data indicates that the fundamentals may still be under pressure, and the central bank has maintained ample liquidity, which is conducive to the bond market's independent movement [10][25][26] - Another possible main line is the central bank's potential interest - rate cut from the third quarter to the fourth quarter. Although the Fed's interest - rate cut may open up space for domestic interest - rate cuts, considering the current deep inversion of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, the "domestic - oriented" monetary policy, and the possible "combination - punch" approach of the central bank, this main line needs further clarification [10][28][29] - The third possible main line is the confirmation of the inflection point of the social financing growth rate. Social financing growth has been declining since August and is expected to continue until the end of the year. The social financing growth rate is predicted to reach a peak of about 9.0% from July to August and then gradually decline to about 8.2% by the end of the year. Even if special refinancing bonds are issued, their impact on social financing is only temporary [10][35][38]