1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: High - level oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating upward [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: High - level oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50 Index: Rebound [3] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 500 Index: Oscillation [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward movement [3] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward movement [3] - Gold: High - level oscillation [3] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Pulp: Consolidation [4] - Logs: Oscillation [4] - Soybean oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Palm oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Rapeseed oil: Oscillating upward [4] - Soybean meal: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Rapeseed meal: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 2: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Soybean No. 1: Strong - side oscillation [6] - Live pigs: Weak - side oscillation [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [6] - PX: Wait - and - see [8] - PTA: Wait - and - see [8] - MEG: Wait - and - see [8] - PR: Wait - and - see [8] - PF: Wait - and - see [12] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the black industry, short - term steel industry growth expectations still exist. There are opportunities in the contract operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601. Attention should be paid to policy implementation and off - season demand. In the financial market, the market has rebounded continuously, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly and long positions in Treasury bonds lightly. For precious metals, the logic driving the gold price increase has not completely reversed, and short - term factors may cause fluctuations. In the agricultural and light industrial products markets, different products have different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Short - term manufacturing recovery is interrupted, and policy expectations are falsified. Supply increases slightly, and steel mills' production drive is strong. There are production - reduction expectations in the later period. Consider the operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601 [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coal mine over - production inspections tighten supply, and transportation is disrupted. The market is in a slightly tight supply - demand state, and prices are likely to rise [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Tangshan's independent steel - rolling enterprises' production restrictions are beneficial to finished products. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory may accumulate. Consider the operation of going long on RB2601 and shorting I2601 [2]. - **Glass**: The market's speculation sentiment cools down, and the demand is difficult to recover significantly. It is in the adjustment stage [2]. - **Soda ash**: In the adjustment stage, with the market's trading logic returning to the fundamentals [2]. Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market has rebounded, and risk appetite has improved. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures lightly [3]. - **Treasury bonds**: Market interest rates have rebounded, and Treasury bond prices have fallen. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [3]. - **Gold and silver**: The gold - pricing mechanism is changing. The logic of the gold price increase has not reversed. Short - term factors such as employment data and tariff policies affect the price. Pay attention to the latest CPI data [3][4]. Agricultural and Light Industrial Products Markets - **Pulp**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to consolidate [4]. - **Logs**: Demand has increased slightly, supply pressure is not large, and the price is expected to oscillate [4]. - **Oils and fats**: Supported by raw material costs, external markets, and demand recovery, they are expected to oscillate upward. Pay attention to weather and production - sales conditions [4]. - **Meal products**: Supply is sufficient in the short term, and prices are under pressure. In the long term, there are some supporting factors. They are expected to oscillate strongly [6]. - **Live pigs**: Supply is increasing, and consumption is restricted by high temperatures. The price is expected to decline slightly [6]. - **Rubber**: The supply - demand gap has narrowed. With the improvement of supply - side factors, the price is expected to be strong in the short term [6][8]. - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These products are in a state of wait - and - see, with their prices mainly affected by cost and supply - demand changes [8][12].

Group 1: Economic Policy and Growth - Multiple departments are focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations while implementing proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [1][2] - The contribution rate of domestic demand to GDP growth in the first half of the year was 68.8%, with final consumption expenditure contributing 52% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 690 billion yuan for consumer upgrades and plans to release another 690 billion yuan in October, aiming to complete a total of 300 billion yuan for the year [2][3] Group 2: New Quality Productivity - High-tech industry sales revenue increased by 14.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating robust growth in innovative industries [4] - The NDRC emphasizes the need to cultivate new quality productivity and promote the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, while the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) is focusing on enhancing the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand [4][5] - The government is utilizing various policy tools, including special funds and tax incentives, to support the transformation of traditional industries and the development of emerging industries [5] Group 3: Anti-Competition Measures - The NDRC is advancing the construction of a unified national market to eliminate "involutionary" competition and promote healthy development of the private economy [6][7] - The MIIT is working to consolidate the achievements in regulating "involutionary" competition in the new energy vehicle sector and other key industries [6][7] - The People's Bank of China is supporting the resolution of structural contradictions in key industries to promote quality upgrades [7]

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis is on stabilizing growth and addressing public concerns to promote high-quality economic and social development in the region [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategies - The focus is on stabilizing existing resources, optimizing quality, and closely monitoring initial targets to ensure employment, businesses, markets, and expectations are stable [2]. - There is a call to seize opportunities and leverage comparative advantages to mobilize resources effectively and create a new landscape for integrated development [2]. - The importance of strong work ethics and implementation is highlighted, with a commitment to safeguarding the bottom line of people's livelihoods [2]. Group 2: Project Development and Innovation - The National Center for Translational Medicine, one of five national-level centers, is being developed with a focus on high standards and quality to meet national strategic needs [1]. - The project aims to enhance original innovation and strengthen the integration of scientific research and industrial innovation [1]. Group 3: Community Engagement - During the visit, there was an emphasis on listening to community concerns and addressing them promptly to protect citizens' legal rights [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of iron ore is expected to shift towards fundamentals in August. Domestically, policy expectations have ebbed, while abroad, attention should be paid to tariff dynamics. In the short term, iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level in a range, and in the long term, it may weaken along with finished steel. Currently, steel mills still have high profits, so the output of hot metal remains at a high level, supporting the demand for iron ore. The inventory contradiction of iron ore is not significant, but it is expected that the shipment volume of foreign mines will increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in iron ore demand [7][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint Strategy - **Core Logic**: Domestically, policy expectations have ebbed, but the US non - farm payrolls data has been significantly revised down, increasing the probability of an interest rate cut in September. Fundamentally, steel mills still have high profits, so the output of hot metal remains at a high level, supporting the demand for iron ore. Coke is about to start the fifth round of price increase. Currently, the inventory contradiction of iron ore is not significant. It is expected that the shipment volume of foreign mines will increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to changes in iron ore demand [13]. - **Spot and Futures Market**: In July, the price of iron ore increased by 38 - 77 yuan/wet ton. The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract was 779 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.87% compared with the end of June. The basis was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June. The unilateral open interest of iron ore first increased and then decreased in July. The price center of the iron ore Back curve shifted upwards, and the curve became slightly steeper [13]. - **Spread**: At the end of July, the spread between DCE and SGX iron ore was 66 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton compared with the end of June, and the spread continued to widen. At the end of July, the spread between rebar and iron ore (main contract) was 2426 yuan/ton, an increase of 144.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; at the end of July, the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.11, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the end of June [13]. 02 Macro Level - **Macro News in July**: In July, the black - sector fluctuated greatly under market policy expectations and capital speculation, especially in coking coal futures. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's statement at the beginning of the month and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's emphasis on capacity reduction later, along with other events, led to sharp rises and falls in coking coal prices [15]. - **Construction**: In July, the weekly cement delivery volume was about 275 tons, a decrease of about 15 tons/week compared with June. The weekly direct supply of infrastructure cement was about 166 tons, a decrease of about 3 tons/week compared with June. The total cement delivery volume decreased by about 75 tons/week year - on - year, and real - estate demand was a drag [18]. - **Infrastructure**: In July, the weekly concrete delivery volume was about 1.44 million cubic meters, basically the same as in June and year - on - year. The weekly asphalt sales volume was about 26 tons, a decrease of about 2.5 tons/week compared with June [22]. - **Manufacturing**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4% month - on - month, and it was below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. The steel PMI was 50.5%, returning above the boom - bust line [24]. 03 Spot and Basis - **Spot Market**: In July, the spot price of steel followed the futures market and strengthened. Affected by coking coal, the black - sector rebounded. The price of coking coal increased significantly, trade merchants held back sales, and the inventory of raw coal in mines decreased significantly. Coke had four rounds of price increases in July, and there was an expectation of a fifth round at the end of the month [28]. - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: In July, the price of iron ore increased by 38 - 77 yuan/wet ton. The price of low - grade iron powder increased less, while that of medium - and high - grade iron powder increased more. The spot benchmark price of the Beijing Iron and Steel Exchange first increased and then slightly decreased [33]. - **Iron Ore Futures**: As of July 31, the closing price of the main iron ore futures contract was 779 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.87% compared with the end of June. The basis on the 31st was - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June. The open interest of iron ore futures first increased and then decreased in July [35][38]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Compared with a month ago, the price center of the iron ore Back curve shifted upwards, and the curve became slightly steeper. As of July 31, the 5 - 9 spread was - 47 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; the 9 - 1 spread was 25.5 yuan/ton, the same as at the end of June [42][45]. 04 Spread - **Cross - market Spread**: At the end of July, the spread between DCE and SGX iron ore was 66 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton compared with the end of June, and the spread continued to widen [50]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: At the end of July, the spread between rebar and iron ore (main contract) was 2426 yuan/ton, an increase of 144.5 yuan/ton compared with the end of June; the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.11, a decrease of 0.08 compared with the end of June. The fundamentals of iron ore are better than those of steel. Considering the high profits of steel mills, one can consider narrowing the steel - mill profit, but also pay attention to the expectation of crude - steel production reduction [53]. 05 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: In July, the weekly shipment volume of iron ore was around 30 million tons, a decrease of about 4 million tons/week compared with June. As of the end of July, the cumulative global shipment volume was 937 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [55]. - **47 - Port Arrival Volume**: In July, the weekly arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports was between 23 million and 29 million tons, higher than the same period last year. As of the end of July, the cumulative arrival volume for the year was 762 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23 million tons, a decrease of 2.99% [61]. - **Domestic Mine Supply**: In July, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines increased slightly, and the daily output of iron powder increased slightly [65][68]. 06 Demand - **Hot Metal Output**: In July, the daily average output of hot metal from 247 steel enterprises was around 2.4 million tons, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The daily average consumption of imported iron ore was about 3 million tons [71]. - **Blast - furnace Operating Rate and Capacity Utilization**: In July, the operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was maintained at 83.46%, a slight decrease from the previous month. The blast - furnace capacity utilization was around 90%, a slight decrease from the previous month and an increase of about 1% compared with the same period last year [73]. - **Profitability of Steel Enterprises**: In July, the profitability of 247 steel enterprises continued to rise. At the end of July, the profitability rate of steel mills was 65.37%, an increase of 6.06% compared with the beginning of the month and an increase of about 60% compared with the same period last year [76]. - **Production Profit**: In July, the profit of producing rebar in blast furnaces continued to increase. The profit of electric furnaces in the East China region turned from negative to positive, and the profit of electric furnaces in the Southwest region exceeded 200 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled and cold - rolled coils also increased [80][83][87]. 07 Inventory - **Domestic Mine Inventory**: In July, the inventory of iron concentrate in domestic mines continued to decline and remained at a low level [96]. - **Steel - Mill Inventory**: As of the end of July, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.1209 million tons, an increase of 1.6462 million tons compared with the end of June. Steel mills maintained a low inventory and mainly purchased on demand [98]. - **Port Inventory**: In July, the port inventory decreased slightly, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. As of the end of July, the iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 142.2201 million tons, a decrease of 2.5822 million tons compared with the end of June and a decrease of 14.683 million tons year - on - year [101]. - **Surcharge Volume**: In July, the surcharge volume remained at a high level. At the end of July, the number of ships at 45 ports was 90, an increase of 8 compared with the end of June and a decrease of 35 compared with the same period last year. The daily average surcharge volume at 45 ports was maintained above 3 million tons, higher than the same period in previous years [103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroeconomic factors: The China-US trade negotiation has been postponed. China's anti-involution and stable growth policies have significantly boosted the sentiment in the industrial product market. In July, China's manufacturing PMI decreased seasonally, and the decline in industrial enterprise profits narrowed. The Ministry of Finance emphasized increasing fiscal counter-cyclical adjustment, supporting traditional industry transformation and the growth of emerging industries, promoting consumption, and expanding domestic demand [3]. - Supply side: The operating rate in Xinjiang dropped below 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The supply side showed a passive contraction, with social inventory declining from a high level and warehouse receipt inventory decreasing due to the monthly decline in domestic production [3][56]. - Demand side: The spot price of polysilicon rebounded significantly, but a large increase in production volume was expected. Silicon wafers could not cover the high costs, but battery orders were good due to export tax rebates, driving consumption. However, battery prices had limited upward space due to the drag of centralized demand. Component markets had high quotes but low transactions because of the weak demand for domestic distributed projects. In traditional industries, silicone monomer enterprises were reluctant to lower prices, but the cost support in the future would weaken. The aluminum alloy production remained stable due to continuous orders from the automotive sector. Overall, industrial silicon was expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand in August [3][57]. - Market outlook: The futures price of industrial silicon was expected to enter a pattern of volatile rebound [3][57]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 July Industrial Silicon Market Review - **Futures price**: In July 2025, the industrial silicon futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The main 2509 contract fluctuated between 7705 - 10060 yuan/ton. The price center rebounded compared to the previous month, and the volatility increased. The anti-involution and stable growth policies boosted market sentiment, but the contraction of polysilicon production capacity might drag down the demand for industrial silicon. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3. The operating rate in Xinjiang in July was around 50%, and the increase in the operating rate in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. As of the end of July, the number of open furnaces nationwide increased to 260. From the demand side, the polysilicon market mainly had historical order replenishment transactions, the silicon wafer market continued to raise prices but could not cover costs, the battery market had limited price increase space, and the component market had a situation of high quotes but low transactions. As of July 31, the main 2509 contract closed at 8760 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 8.7% [8]. - **Spot market**: In July, the total number of open furnaces of industrial silicon in China was 260, an increase of 45 compared to the previous month. The average production cost decreased by 1.64% month-on-month. The operating rate in Xinjiang decreased to around 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The social inventory decreased slightly to 53.5 tons. The spot market rebounded to above 10,000 yuan and then quickly declined. By the end of July, the prices of mainstream 553 grades rebounded, the price of 441 decreased, the price of 421 rebounded significantly, and the price of 3303 might be adjusted downward in the next month [9][10]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis - The anti-involution and stable growth policies were clearly defined. The 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July proposed an anti-involution policy framework, aiming to address the imbalance between supply and demand in the macro - economy, especially in the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic component, and e - commerce platform sectors. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology planned to introduce stable growth plans for key industries such as automobiles, steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, and promote the integration of technological and industrial innovation. In June, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the profit of the equipment manufacturing industry increased significantly, providing support for the profit of large - scale industries [16][19][20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: In July, the operating rate of silicon enterprises in Xinjiang was around 50%, and the output growth in Sichuan and Yunnan during the wet season was limited. The output in Inner Mongolia and Gansu was stable. The total industrial silicon output in July was 33.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.2%. As of July 28, the number of open furnaces nationwide increased to 260, and the overall operating rate increased to 32.7%. It was expected that the operating rate in August would remain at a low level of around 35%, and the output of mainstream grades of industrial silicon would be restricted by policies in the long - term [22][23]. - **Export**: From January to June this year, the cumulative export volume of industrial silicon was 21.67 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. In June, the export volume was 6.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The export destinations were mainly Southeast Asian countries. It was expected that the export volume from July to August would remain stable at 6 - 7 tons [32]. - **Inventory**: By July 31, the social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 54 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.9 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange decreased by 1.4% month - on - month. The decrease in warehouse receipt inventory was mainly due to the monthly decline in domestic production. It was expected that the social inventory would continue to decline in August [35]. - **Demand**: - **Photovoltaic industry**: In July, the polysilicon output was 10.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.4%. The price of polysilicon increased significantly. The price of silicon wafers continued to rise but could not cover costs. The battery orders were good due to export tax rebates, but the price increase space was limited. The component market had high quotes but low transactions. It was expected that the overall demand for photovoltaic in August would decline significantly, and the new installed capacity in 2025 was expected to drop to around 250GW [37][38][39]. - **Silicone industry**: In July, the output of silicone DMC was 20.65 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%. The average operating rate of silicone monomer enterprises increased to 72.1%. The spot price of DMC rebounded. The monomer enterprises were reluctant to lower prices, but the cost support in the future would weaken, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a high level in August [40]. - **Aluminum alloy industry**: From January to June, the aluminum alloy output was 909.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. In June, the output was 166.9 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. The production of aluminum rods in different regions varied, and the total production would continue to run stably. It was expected that the aluminum alloy output would decline slightly in August [42]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Macroeconomic factors would continue to support the market. The supply side would remain in a passive contraction pattern, and the demand side would enter a slow - down cycle in August. Industrial silicon was expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the futures price was expected to enter a pattern of volatile rebound [56][57].

Group 1 - The recent focus on financial "anti-involution" is aimed at addressing the disorderly competition within the financial industry to improve service quality [1] - Experts emphasize the need for a balance between supporting economic growth and preventing risks, advocating for rational competition and stability in the financial system [1] - From a macro perspective, policies should enhance support for the real economy while maintaining the stability of banking operations [1] Group 2 - Future monetary policy should adopt a more refined balance strategy between "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks," avoiding excessive easing that could lead to long-term risks [2] - The central bank plans to strengthen the execution and supervision of interest rate policies to maintain healthy competition in the deposit and loan markets [2] - Measures may include enhancing self-discipline mechanisms for interest rate pricing and improving the assessment systems for financial institutions [2] Group 3 - The central bank aims to continue supporting local government financing platforms and manage risks in key areas [3] - A macro-prudential management framework will be improved to monitor risks in local government debt, small financial institutions, and real estate credit [3] - Different policies and tools will be employed to address risks in three key areas, including extending financial support for debt restructuring [3]

光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 2 0 2 5 年 0 8 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金："反内卷"引领，基本面驱动有限 p 2 铁合金："反内卷"引领，基本面驱动有限 锰 硅 供应：7月锰硅产量持续增加，各地区产量均有不同程度回升。据铁合金在线，7月锰硅总产量约为89.27万吨，较6月增加5.69万吨。 其中硅锰6517产量约为80.39万吨，较6月增加5.89万吨左右。其中宁夏、云南产量增幅明显，增量在1万吨以上，内蒙地区增量约7000吨，主 产区中，近贵州、广西产量略有下降。 需求：粗钢产量降幅明显，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值仍处于历史同期偏低水平，钢厂备货意愿有限。6月我国粗钢产量8318.4万吨， 同比下降9.19%。截止7月末，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值12.37万吨，同比基本持平，绝对值偏低。7月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数为14.24天，近 年来同期新低。 库存：样本企业库存环比下降，同比仍然增加。7月63家样本样本企业库存连续两周下降，最近一周降幅超4万吨至16.4万吨。去年同 期为10.4 ...

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced a rise followed by a decline, with all major indices closing down after the Politburo meeting, where the CSI 1000 had the smallest drop of 0.54%, while the CSI A50 and CSI 300 fell by 2.48% and 1.75% respectively [3][12] - There was a noticeable divergence in market styles, with growth and consumption sectors experiencing smaller declines, while financial, stability, and cyclical styles saw significant pullbacks [3][12] - Mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed large-cap indices during the week, with the NING and MAO indices, representing core assets and growth leaders, also declining, with the NING combination down 1.74% and the MAO index down 0.84% [3][12] Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook - The personal investor sentiment index has continued to decline, entering a negative zone, with the 7-day moving average reported at -0.42% as of August 2, down from 4.35% on July 26 [4][19] - The recent Politburo meeting did not indicate any large-scale stimulus plans, suggesting that the focus will shift back to demand recovery rather than potential supply-side reductions [4][32] - The current market dynamics indicate a potential vacuum in buying momentum, necessitating a cautious approach to investment strategies [4][32] Sector Analysis - The healthcare and communication sectors saw gains of over 2%, driven by significant partnerships and strong performance in the CPO sector, respectively, indicating a return to prosperity trading [15] - Conversely, sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, construction materials, and steel experienced substantial declines due to the withdrawal of "anti-involution" trading sentiment following policy announcements [15] Investment Strategy and Recommendations - The report emphasizes a return to prosperity trading, highlighting opportunities for valuation recovery in technology growth sectors, particularly in AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules [5][33] - The fundamentals of innovative pharmaceuticals and CROs are showing signs of transformation, with continued trading logic for Chinese pharmaceuticals going overseas [5][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is experiencing weak demand, with the PMI showing a decline. The market is awaiting new policies to stimulate demand [4] - The report highlights that the cement market is facing challenges due to adverse weather conditions, leading to a low average shipment rate of less than 45% in key regions. However, the overall price decline has slowed down, indicating potential stabilization in the near term [11][18] - The report suggests that the supply-side consensus on self-discipline within the industry is strengthening, which may lead to better profitability compared to the previous year [11] - The report recommends focusing on cyclical industries that may benefit from policy support, particularly in cement and glass sectors, and highlights specific companies such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, and others as potential investment opportunities [4][11] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The construction materials sector has seen a decline of 2.31% in the past week, underperforming against the Shanghai Composite Index [4] - The report notes that the cement price is currently at 339.7 RMB/ton, down 1.0 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 42.5 RMB/ton year-on-year [19][20] 2. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data 2.1 Cement - The average cement shipment rate is reported at 44.7%, with a slight increase of 1.7 percentage points from the previous week, but a decrease of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [26] - The report anticipates that cement prices will stabilize in the short term, despite current weak demand [11][18] 2.2 Glass - The average price of float glass is reported at 1295.3 RMB/ton, which is an increase of 56.7 RMB/ton from the previous week but a decrease of 175.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [4] - The report indicates that the glass industry is expected to see a supply-side contraction, which may improve the supply-demand balance in the short to medium term [14] 2.3 Fiberglass - The report highlights that the market for electronic fiberglass products is evolving, with a clear trend towards high-end products, which are expected to see increased penetration and value growth [12] - The profitability of ordinary fiberglass remains resilient, with ongoing demand in sectors like wind power and thermoplastics [12] 3. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report discusses the impact of government policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand, particularly in the housing market, which is expected to improve the outlook for construction materials [15] - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that are exploring new business models and enhancing their supply chain efficiency [15]

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: August 4, 2025 [1] - Report author: Mao Lei [8] - Report institution: Guotai Junan Futures [9] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook - Market performance last week: The overall market declined, reaching a phased high during the week and then oscillating downward. The top three sectors in terms of gains were medicine and biology, communication, and media, while the bottom three were coal, non - ferrous metals, and real estate [3] - Policy impact: The Politburo meeting announced the main economic work direction for the second half of the year. The policy on stabilizing growth weakened marginally due to the improved external environment and good economic data in the first half. In the anti - involution area, the policy on prices was diluted, causing a significant decline in related commodity futures prices and dragging down relevant stock market sectors [3] - Overseas factors: Tariff fluctuations increased. The deadline for the equal - tariff negotiation for non - Chinese countries was approaching on August 1st, and the market's interpretation of the China - related trade negotiation in Sweden was not optimistic, suppressing investors' risk appetite [3] - Market turning points: In a bull market driven by risk preference, market turning points are mainly driven by policy shifts and the fermentation of external risks. Last week's market performance basically conformed to this adjustment logic [4] - Future market outlook: After the policy meeting, the actual future direction is uncertain. There is also uncertainty regarding the Sino - US equal - tariff deadline in the middle of this month. The upward market space may be limited, and the downward space is also restricted as market sentiment remains positive [4] - Factors to watch: The release of China's economic data in July, the Fed's policy direction, and the progress of tariff negotiations [5] Group 3: Strategy Recommendations Short - term strategy - Intraday trading frequency can refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [6] Trend strategy - Adopt a long - after - correction approach. The core operating ranges for the IF2508, IH2508, IC2508, and IM2508 contracts are 3909 - 4110 points, 2727 - 2853 points, 6030 - 6434 points, and 6375 - 6804 points respectively [6] Cross - variety strategy - Cautiously participate in the strategy of going long on IF (or IH) and shorting IC (or IM) [7] Group 4: Market Data Summary Spot market review - Global stock indices: Most global stock indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index rose by 0.30%, while others such as the Russian RTS, NASDAQ, and Brazil BOVESPA Index fell [11] - Major domestic indices: All major domestic indices declined last week. The Taiwan Weighted Index was an exception with a 0.30% increase. Since 2025, major domestic indices have shown varying degrees of increase [11][12][13] - Industry performance: In the CSI 300 index, the medicine sector rose by 2.17%, while sectors such as industry, materials, and optional consumption declined. In the CSI 500 index, the medicine and telecommunications sectors rose, while others such as finance and real estate declined [15] Futures market review - Futures contract performance: The IF futures contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude last week. The trading volume and open interest of股指期货 declined [15] Index valuation - PE ratios: The PE (TTM) ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index are 15.57 times, 13.5 times, 11.39 times, 30.79 times, and 41.44 times respectively [18][19] Market funds - Newly - established funds and investors: The data on newly - established equity - biased fund shares and the number of new investors in the two markets are presented [22] - Fund rates and central bank operations: The fund rate declined last week, and the central bank's net investment situation is shown [22]