Group 1 - The A-share market showed strong recovery after the Spring Festival, with overall positive performance and increased trading volume, indicating a bullish sentiment among domestic investors [1] - The market's rebound was characterized by significant inflows into cyclical industries, reflecting investor expectations for a further rise in PPI [1] - Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed large-cap blue-chip and technology stocks, which is a typical feature of the spring market [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index entered a consolidation phase after a series of rebounds, with current market characteristics including sector differentiation and rapid industry rotation [2] - Attention is needed on the technical resistance at previous highs and the ability of the 5-day moving average to hold [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for government bonds is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to oscillate before the Two Sessions. The real - estate stabilization policies in Shanghai are a limited negative for the bond market. The market's expectation of policy strength during the Two Sessions has slightly increased, but the probability of further large - scale policy stimulus is low, and geopolitical conflicts have led to continuous risk - aversion sentiment [2][11]. - After the Two Sessions, attention should be paid to the supply pressure of government bonds and the trend of the equity market. In the long run, inflation recovery and technological progress are the main trading themes for various assets this year, and the bond market remains a weak asset with adjustment risks [2][12][13]. - In terms of strategies, a unilateral strategy should be cautious about bond market adjustment risks; a short - hedging strategy is recommended; and in the long term, the spread of 3T - TL should be widened [2][14][15]. Summary by Directory 1. One - Week Review and Views 1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From February 23 to March 1, government bond futures declined slightly. On Tuesday, the LPR quote remained stable, the stock market rose as expected, and government bond futures outperformed spot bonds. On Wednesday, Shanghai introduced real - estate relaxation policies, the stock market continued to rise, and some bond market institutions took profits, causing government bond futures to decline. On Thursday, with a quiet market and strong profit - taking willingness, government bond futures continued to decline. On Friday, the bond market sentiment improved, and most government bond futures contracts rose. As of February 27, the settlement prices of the 06 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were 102.448, 105.985, 108.390, and 112.120 yuan respectively, down 0.042, 0.120, 0.125, and 0.750 yuan from the previous weekend [1][10]. 1.2 Next Week's View - The bond market is expected to oscillate before the Two Sessions. The real - estate policies in Shanghai are a limited negative for the bond market. The market's expectation of policy strength during the Two Sessions has slightly increased, but the deficit rate is likely to remain at 4%, and the probability of further large - scale policy stimulus is low. Geopolitical conflicts have led to continuous risk - aversion sentiment. After the Two Sessions, attention should be paid to the supply pressure of government bonds and the trend of the equity market. In the long run, the bond market is a weak asset with adjustment risks [2][11][12]. 2. Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 2.1 Primary Market - This week, 46 interest - rate bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 787.42 billion yuan and a net financing of 368.289 billion yuan, an increase of 787.42 billion yuan and 551.673 billion yuan respectively from last week. 27 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 256.42 billion yuan and a net financing of 190.429 billion yuan, an increase of 256.42 billion yuan and 211.813 billion yuan respectively from last week. 298 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance of 460.37 billion yuan and a net financing of - 206.29 billion yuan, an increase of 460.37 billion yuan and a decrease of 130.85 billion yuan respectively from last week [18]. 2.2 Secondary Market - Government bond yields rose. As of February 27, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bonds were 1.36%, 1.55%, 1.82%, and 2.29% respectively, up 0.45, 1.04, 2.32, and 4.60 basis points from the previous weekend. The spreads of 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y widened by 2.03, 1.28, and 2.28 basis points respectively [24]. 3. Government Bond Futures 3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Government bond futures declined slightly. As of February 27, the settlement prices of the 06 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were 102.448, 105.985, 108.390, and 112.120 yuan respectively, down 0.042, 0.120, 0.125, and 0.750 yuan from the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures this week were 52,831, 98,584, 173,293, and 128,349 lots respectively, with changes of - 769, - 10,029, + 29,223, and + 17,974 lots from last week. The open interests were 71,309, 186,444, 324,967, and 174,690 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,129, - 9, - 18,953, and - 11,948 lots from last week [31][34]. 3.2 Basis and IRR - The basis of TL widened, while the basis of T, TF, and TS oscillated narrowly. There are no obvious arbitrage opportunities at present. In the short term, risks such as policy stimulus and increased government bond supply should be watched out for. In the long run, the bond market still faces adjustment pressure, and a short - hedging strategy is recommended [38]. 3.3 Inter - delivery and Inter - variety Spreads - As of February 27, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2603 - 2606 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year government bond futures were + 0.002, - 0.095, + 0.040, and - 0.250 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.058, + 0.030, + 0.080, and - 0.110 yuan from the previous weekend. This week, long - position holders led the roll - over first, followed by short - position holders [43]. 4. Weekly Observation of the Funding Situation - This week, the central bank conducted 1.641 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. With 2.2524 trillion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases and 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF maturing, the net withdrawal was 911.4 billion yuan. As of February 27, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.36%, 1.34%, 1.36%, and 1.47% respectively, up 7.37, 5.46, 8.70, and 4.40 basis points from the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 7.79 trillion yuan, 1.06 trillion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 74.44%, lower than last week [46][48]. 5. Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index declined slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds decreased. As of February 27, the US dollar index fell 0.10% to 97.6443 compared with February 20, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 3.97%, down 11 basis points from February 20. The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year government bonds was inverted by 215.1 basis points. Due to some dovish statements from Fed officials, the expectation of interest - rate cuts increased, and the US dollar index weakened slightly. Concerns about AI impact led to an adjustment in US technology stocks and a decline in US Treasury bond yields [51]. 6. Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose this week. As of February 27, the Southern China Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,694.04, 7,225.54, and 1,603.56 points respectively, up 88.95, 214.49, and 33.59 points from the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices fell. As of February 27, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 17.70, 5.30, and 7.91 yuan per kilogram respectively, down 0.51, 0.28, and 0.15 yuan per kilogram from the previous weekend [54]. 7. Investment Suggestions - The bond market is currently oscillating, but risks of future adjustments should be watched out for [55]

Group 1 - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of stabilizing growth, improving quality, and ensuring economic operations, resumption of production, agricultural production, and safety [1][2] - Companies are encouraged to seize development opportunities, accelerate project construction, and enhance the integration of upstream and downstream industries [1] - There is a focus on enhancing research and development investments, extending industrial chains, and improving safety levels in enterprises [1] Group 2 - The government acknowledges the achievements in economic and social development in Jining and encourages leveraging comparative advantages for high-quality development [2] - Emphasis is placed on monitoring economic operations, boosting industrial quality and efficiency, and expanding effective investment [2] - The government aims to support enterprises in resuming production, optimizing policies, and providing precise services to address practical difficulties [2]

Group 1 - After the Spring Festival, several regions including Shanxi, Shaanxi, Shandong, and Beijing have initiated major project construction to stimulate investment and stabilize growth, aiming for a strong start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1][2] - Shanxi Naan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. is expanding its intelligent production line, which is expected to increase overall capacity by 40%, achieving an annual output of 800 tons and a projected annual output value of 200 million yuan [2] - Major projects are seen as crucial for stabilizing investment and promoting growth, with various regions accelerating the construction of key projects, such as the establishment of new educational facilities in Gansu and significant infrastructure projects in Henan [2][3] Group 2 - Multiple provinces, including Anhui, Liaoning, and Henan, have rolled out policies to promote economic stability in the first quarter, focusing on boosting consumption and strengthening industries [3][4] - Anhui plans to enhance consumer spending by developing income increase plans and new consumption scenarios, while Henan is advancing major infrastructure projects [3] - High-frequency data indicates strong production sentiment, with the manufacturing PMI showing a production index of 50.6%, indicating expansion, and a business expectation index of 52.6%, reflecting optimistic outlooks among enterprises [3]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of government bonds, including national and local government special bonds, has accelerated, reflecting a proactive fiscal approach aimed at stabilizing growth, investment, and expectations in 2026 [1] Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - The total scale of issued national bonds and new special bonds in 2026 has increased by 12% and 60% year-on-year, respectively [1] - The first quarter of 2026 has seen an earlier pace of government bond issuance, indicating a trend of fiscal preemptive action [1] Group 2: Policy Implications - The acceleration in bond issuance is aligned with policy goals of stabilizing growth, investment, and expectations [1] - To enhance the pricing function of national bonds, it is suggested to improve the maturity structure of bonds and optimize the buying and selling mechanisms [1] - The role of national bonds in regulating the money supply should be effectively utilized [1]

Core Insights - The issuance of government bonds, including national and local government special bonds, has accelerated, with national bonds and new special bonds in 2026 increasing by 12% and 60% year-on-year, respectively [1][5] Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - The issuance of national bonds has been front-loaded in 2026, with a total issuance of 22,390 billion yuan by February 26, 2026, compared to 19,960.6 billion yuan in the same period of 2025, reflecting a 12% increase [2] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to continue to increase in 2026 to meet the funding needs of major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][5] - The expansion of individual bond sizes, such as the issuance of 10-year bonds, is aimed at enhancing liquidity and improving the pricing function of government bonds [3] Group 2: Special Bonds and Investment - Local governments have also accelerated the issuance of new special bonds, with 8,076.86 billion yuan issued by February 26, 2026, representing a 60% increase from 5,040.75 billion yuan in 2025 [5] - The primary uses of the newly issued special bonds include municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and affordable housing projects [6] - The issuance of special bonds is expected to promote infrastructure investment, improve livelihoods, and mitigate debt risks, contributing to the policy goals of stable growth and investment [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of government bonds, including national and local special bonds, has accelerated, reflecting a proactive fiscal approach aimed at stabilizing growth, investment, and expectations in 2026 [1][2]. Group 1: Government Bond Issuance - The total scale of national bonds issued by February 26, 2026, reached 22,390 billion, a 12% increase compared to 19,960.6 billion in the same period of 2025 [1]. - The issuance of 10-year and 3-year bonds on February 24, 2026, amounted to 1,350 billion and 1,300 billion respectively, followed by 1,200 billion for 5-year bonds and 400 billion for discount bonds on February 25, 2026 [1]. - The issuance of long-term special bonds is expected to increase in 2026 to meet the funding needs of major projects under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2]. Group 2: Market Stability and Expectations - The single issuance scale of national bonds has expanded, with 1-year, 2-year, 7-year, and 10-year bonds issued in January 2026 being 1,350 billion, 1,750 billion, 1,600 billion, and 1,800 billion respectively, compared to lower figures in January 2025 [2]. - Increasing the issuance scale of 10-year bonds is seen as beneficial for enhancing liquidity and fulfilling the pricing function of government bonds [2][3]. - The expansion of single bond issuance is linked to the refinancing needs due to high maturity scales, indicating a responsive approach to market conditions [3]. Group 3: Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment - As of February 26, 2026, local governments issued 8,076.86 billion in new special bonds, a 60% increase from 5,040.75 billion in 2025 [4]. - The primary uses of newly issued special bonds include municipal and industrial park infrastructure, transportation infrastructure, and affordable housing projects [4]. - The management mechanism under the "negative list" is expected to broaden the scope of special bond applications, aligning with the demands for technological innovation and modern industrial system construction [4].

Group 1 - Various regions in China, including Anhui, Liaoning, Henan, Fujian, Heilongjiang, and Yunnan, have implemented a series of policies to promote economic stability and growth in the first quarter, focusing on boosting consumption, strengthening industries, and improving livelihoods [1] - Anhui plans to enhance consumer spending by developing income increase plans, improving wage growth mechanisms, and cultivating new consumption scenarios, while Henan emphasizes major infrastructure projects to stimulate investment [1] - The emphasis on accelerating industrial upgrades and developing future industries is highlighted, with Anhui allocating 4.1 billion yuan to foster new growth drivers and Fujian aiming to create data industry clusters and pilot national data industry zones [1] Group 2 - High-frequency data indicates a strong production sentiment and robust corporate confidence, with the manufacturing PMI showing a production index of 50.6%, indicating expansion [2] - The first quarter is expected to see the commencement of significant projects, which will positively impact investment, alongside increased consumer spending driven by tourism and service consumption [2]

Group 1 - After the Spring Festival, major project construction has commenced in regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Shandong, and Beijing, with local governments implementing pragmatic measures to promote investment, expand domestic demand, stabilize growth, and facilitate transformation [1][2] - Shanxi Naan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. is expanding its intelligent production line, which is expected to achieve full production by March, increasing overall capacity by 40% and reaching an annual output value of 200 million yuan [2] - Major projects are seen as key drivers for stabilizing investment and promoting growth, with various regions accelerating the construction of key projects, such as the establishment of new educational facilities in Gansu and significant infrastructure projects in Henan [2][3] Group 2 - Local governments, including those in Anhui, Henan, and Fujian, have deployed a series of policies aimed at stabilizing economic growth in the first quarter, focusing on boosting consumption, strengthening industries, and improving livelihoods [3] - In terms of demand, promoting consumption and expanding investment are highlighted as priorities, with Anhui planning to enhance income growth mechanisms and develop new consumption scenarios [3] - High-frequency data indicates a strong production sentiment, with the manufacturing PMI for January showing a production index of 50.6%, indicating expansion, and a business activity expectation index of 52.6%, reflecting optimistic corporate expectations [3]

Group 1 - The meeting emphasized the need to deeply learn and implement the important speech by General Secretary Xi Jinping, reinforcing the mission of "Western Demonstration, Xi'an First" and enhancing the quality and efficiency of the "Three Services" [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining political security and social stability, aiming to create a first-class legal business environment and strengthen grassroots legal work [1] - The meeting called for the implementation of the national and provincial organizational ministerial meeting spirit, focusing on enhancing grassroots party building and creating a favorable talent ecosystem [2] Group 2 - The meeting stressed the need to focus on key tasks in the field of united front work, aiming to enhance the quality of united front efforts and build a strong synergy for high-quality development [2] - The meeting underscored the importance of promoting the construction of a culturally strong city and enhancing the leading and shaping power of socialist core values [2] - The meeting called for high standards in advancing the construction of a national intellectual property strong city and demonstration zone, aiming to improve the entire chain of intellectual property creation, application, protection, management, and service [2] Group 3 - The meeting noted that the social situation during the Spring Festival was harmonious and stable, with smooth economic operations and vibrant cultural tourism markets, while emphasizing the need to maintain growth and ensure stability [2]