来源：第一财经 摘要 在2025年11月17日至11月21日当周，第一财经研究院中国金融条件日度指数均值为-2.35。从年内看， 指数下降0.95。从指数的分项指标来看，上周货币、股市指标指向紧缩。从货币指标来看，上周银行间 市场质押式回购成交量下滑，主要货币市场利率稳中有升。从债券指标来看，信用债收益率呈震荡走 势，信用利差收窄。从股市指标来看，上周主要股指大幅回落，市盈率和成交量同步下滑。 11月20日，人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，11月1年期LPR利率为3.0%，5年期以上LPR利 率为3.5%，自今年6月起LPR利率已连续6个月保持不变。LPR报价一直按兵不动，背后的根本原因是年 初以来出口超预期、国内新质生产力领域较快发展等。 11月19日，美联储公布了10月货币政策会议纪要。针对后续是否还会继续降息的问题，会议纪要显示， 美联储内部存在明显分歧。这令市场对于美联储12月降息的预期进一步降温。在10月货币政策会议后的 新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔就曾表示，美联储12月降息并非板上钉钉。旧金山联储行长、明尼阿 波利斯联储行长以及美联储副主席均对12月降息保持观望和谨慎态度。与此同时，美国 ...

金价突破4100美元，这次推动它上涨的力量，可能和很多人想的不太一样。 不是"中国大妈"，也不是普通投资者，真正的"大买家"是各国央行。 2025年以 来，全球央行的黄金净购买量预计将分别达到平均80吨和70吨，这种体量的购买是个人投资者难以企及的。 东亚波动与日元的连锁反应 市场立刻对东亚的紧张局势做出了反应，一个明显的表现是日元快速贬值，美元对日元汇率一度突破157关口。 这意味着有大量资金正在撤离日本。 市场普遍预期，如果日元继续下跌，跌破160这一关键心理关口，日本央行将大概率入场干预汇市。 干预方式通常是大量抛售其外汇储备中的美元和美债， 同时买入日元来支撑汇率。 这个行动本身会产生连锁反应：日本央行大量抛售美债和美元会导致美元指数走弱，而美元走弱则会推动以美元计价的黄金价格上涨。 回顾历史，每次日 本央行大规模干预汇市时，黄金都曾出现单日大涨行情。 俄乌谈判再陷僵局 在俄乌局势方面，期待中的和平似乎再次变得遥远。 乌克兰总统办公室近期表态非常直白，声称之前特朗普推动的那个包含28项条款的和平协议现在已经 不作数了。 不寻常的是，这次黄金的强势上涨，居然发生在美元同样走强的背景下。 这彻底打破了以往 ...

昨夜美联储货币政策的表态延续鸽派，同时特朗普政府派系成员暗示后续将会削减美联储的影 响力，金银价格短期得到支撑。 美联储理事米兰鸽派表态，他认为不存在通货膨胀问题，当前经济形势需要大幅降息。市场对 于米兰的鸽派言论已不产生反应，但米兰同时表示希望放宽监管使得美联储资产负债表收缩， 且更多的转向美国国债，他同时表明"我们需要降低抵押贷款利率"。米兰讲话的内容呼应了 此前贝森特的表述，即大幅削减联储本身所具备的影响力。今晨，海外消息人士称特朗普的"亲 密盟友"哈塞特已成为美联储新任主席的最热门人选，而他后续的货币政策表态将偏向鸽派。 白银方面，上期所白银库存自 11 月 21 日后开始小幅回升，昨日库存量增加 8.27 吨至 540.57 吨，但当前沪银总体期限结构处于 back 状态（其中 AG2512 合约仍贴水 AG2601 合约），显示库 存低位的情况下白银现货依旧紧俏，而这从供需层面对于白银的基本面形成支撑。 【策略观点】 贵金属日报 2025-11-26 贵金属 钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongju ...

真正引人注目的，是两位拜登任命的理事：迈克尔·巴尔和丽莎·库克。这两位理事的投票，尤其是库克的投票，将可能决定最终是否降息。而库克恰恰是特 朗普曾力图解雇的对象之一！特朗普曾多次尝试通过各种途径解雇库克，认为她的政策立场与自己的理念不符。这一举动曾引起政界和法庭的广泛关注，最 终法院决定于2025年1月对特朗普与库克的争议进行审理。 库克一直以关注劳动力市场问题而著称，她的立场较为温和，倾向于支持能够促进经济增长和就业的政策。尽管她对12月的降息持谨慎态度，但她的投票可 能成为这场决策的关键。如果库克选择支持降息，美联储就能获得足够支持票，最终实现降息目标。这一切，可能会成为特朗普此前努力解雇库克的"反作 用力"，局面无疑充满讽刺性。 美联储的决策远不止是一次简单的利率调整。它涉及的，不仅是经济数据、市场反应和通胀控制问题，更深层次的是美联储与美国政治的紧密联系，尤其是 特朗普在任期间对美联储的强烈干预。从特朗普曾尝试解雇库克，到她成为影响美联储政策的关键人物，整个过程充满复杂政治博弈和不可预测因素。 12月，美联储的降息决策即将成为全球经济关注的焦点。但谁能料到，这一次的决策背后，竟然有一场"政治博弈"—— ...

在服务类别内部，机械和设备批发的利润率出现下降，而食品批发商的利润率则有所上升。此外，航空客运服务成本也出现上涨。 这一数据公布时点距离报告已有一个月，当时CPI数据显示通胀低于预期，而批发价格数据则显示企业可能正限制涨价幅度。 能源主导商品价格上涨 数据显示，美国9月批发商品价格环比上涨0.9%，其中60%的涨幅归因于汽油成本上升。数据还显示，能源价格波动继续成为批发通胀的主要 驱动因素。 相比之下，服务成本在9月环比持平，此前8月服务成本出现下降。这表明批发环节的价格压力主要集中在商品领域。 美国关键通胀指标之一——生产者物价指数（PPI）环比上涨，显示通胀在9月重新升温，能源和食品价格上涨成为主要推动力，为美联储货币 政策决策增添新的考量因素。 美国劳工统计局周二公布的数据显示，9月PPI环比上涨0.3%，预期上涨0.3%，此前8月下降0.1%。剔除食品和能源的核心PPI环比上涨0.1%，预 期上涨0.2%，前值下跌0.1%。 同比数据方面，PPI较上年同期上涨2.7%，预期上涨2.6%，前值上涨2.7%。 核心PPI同比上涨2.6%，预期上涨2.7%，前值上涨2.9%。这是自2024年7月以来核心PP ...

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September in the U.S. increased compared to August, driven by rising energy and food prices [1] - The PPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month, aligning with market expectations, while the year-over-year increase rose from 2.60% in August to 2.7% in September, also meeting market forecasts [1] - Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.1% month-over-month, below the expected 0.2%, but improved from a previous value of -0.1% [1] - Year-over-year, the core PPI rose by 2.6%, slightly lower than analysts' estimates of 2.7% [1] Price Movements - Wholesale commodity prices increased by 0.9%, with 60% of this increase attributed to rising gasoline prices [1] - Service prices remained unchanged after a decline in the previous month [1] - In the services sector, wholesale profit margins for machinery decreased, while those for food increased [1] - Costs for airline passenger services also saw an increase [1] Economic Context - The PPI data was released after a delay due to a government shutdown and provides critical insights for assessing the inflation trajectory in the U.S. [1] - The previous month's PPI had unexpectedly declined, primarily due to a drop in service category prices, but the September data indicates a return to typical growth patterns [1] - The PPI is a leading indicator for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which is set to be released on December 5 [2] - Current inflation persistence contrasts with a weak labor market, leading to divided opinions within the Federal Reserve, making the PPI data significant for the upcoming monetary policy meeting in December [2]

美国9月非农数据姗姗来迟，终于在11月20日公布。数据显示，非农数据很好，新增非农就业人口11.9万人，为今年6月以来最佳 表现，但市场反应较为平淡，黄金等各种资产价格走势也较为克制。整体来看这份就业数据既重要，又不那么重要。 就业数据有升有降 根据美国劳工统计局发布的数据，9月非农就业人数意外激增11.9万人，远超市场预期的5万人。然而，失业率却出现反弹，从8 月的4.3%上升至4.4%，创下2021年以来的新高。此外，7月和8月的非农就业数据也进行了同步下修，7月新增就业人数下调7000 人至7.2万人，8月则下调2.6万人至-0.4万人。修正后，7月和8月新增就业人数合计较修正前减少3.3万人。 工资增速方面同样呈现波动，9月平均每小时工资同比增长3.8%，略高于预期的3.7%；但环比增长0.2%，低于预期，且涨幅较前 月的0.3%有所收窄。总体来看，这份就业数据表现尚可。数据发布后，美联储官员古尔斯比表示，9月就业数据反映出就业市场 稳定且略有降温，失业救济申请数据也未显示就业市场迅速恶化。作为首位对非农数据发表看法的美联储官员，其言论带有预 期管理的意味。 美国劳工统计局已宣布取消原定于12月5日发 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Amid the current inflation expectation game phase, focus on the more certain non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors [4] - The Fed is likely not to cut interest rates in December, and the change in market expectations has impacted short - term overseas assets [3] - The domestic economic foundation still needs to be strengthened, but the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal has boosted market sentiment and economic expectations [2] Summary by Related Content Domestic Economic Situation - On October 28, the full text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released. The average GDP growth rate during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to be around 5% [2] - On October 30, the China - US economic and trade teams reached a three - aspect consensus, and on November 5, China officially postponed tariffs [2] - In October, the national manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8. China's exports in October decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the growth rates of investment, consumption, and industry also slowed down [2] - On November 14, the State Council Executive Meeting studied the implementation of "two major" construction and promoted consumption policies [2] - On November 25, the People's Bank of China will conduct a 1 - year MLF operation of 1 trillion yuan [2][6] - On November 24, the A - share market fluctuated with reduced trading volume, and the military industry sector soared [2] International Economic Situation - Multiple Fed voting members have expressed cautious views on a December interest - rate cut, while Fed Governor Waller supports a cut and Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a cautious approach [3] - The US 11 - month S&P Global Composite PMI preliminary value was 54.8, the highest in four months, with the service sector accelerating and the manufacturing sector slowing [3] - The US September seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls increased by 119,000, the largest increase since April, but the unemployment rate rose and wage growth declined [3] - The Eurozone's November manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.7, unexpectedly falling below the boom - bust line, with manufacturing in Germany and France deteriorating [3] - The EU Council approved the EU's 2026 annual budget, with a total budget commitment of 192.8 billion euros [3][7] Commodity Market - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" situation [4] - The long - term supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector has not been alleviated, and it has been boosted by global easing expectations recently [4] - The medium - term supply of the energy sector is considered relatively loose, with OPEC+ announcing an additional production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November [4] - In the chemical sector, the "anti - involution" space of varieties such as methanol, caustic soda, urea, and PTA is worthy of attention [4] - In the agricultural products sector, with the China - US talks concluded, attention should be paid to China's procurement plan for US goods and next year's weather forecast [4] - After the short - term sharp adjustment risk in the precious metals sector is cleared, opportunities for buying on dips can be considered [4] International Political Events - On November 23, the US and Ukrainian delegations held talks on the US - proposed "28 - point" new plan to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Geneva, Switzerland, and jointly drafted an updated peace framework text [4][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's loose monetary policy has significantly rebounded after the speeches of key Fed voting members, and the overseas interest - rate cut cycle will continue. Further driving forces will be released in December. The Fed will hold its last interest - rate meeting of the year on December 10 (local time) and release an economic outlook report (including the dot - plot), and Trump will probably complete the selection of the new Fed chairman in late December [3]. - Currently, it is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals strategy. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 896 - 960 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai Gold rose 0.64% to 938.68 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver rose 1.47% to 11975.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold was reported at 4129.60 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver was reported at 51.09 dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was 4.04%, and the US dollar index was 100.20 [2]. - Multiple Fed officials' dovish statements drove the prices of gold and silver to stabilize and rebound. San Francisco Fed President Daly and potential new Fed Chairman candidate Waller both supported an interest - rate cut in the December meeting [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said there was still room for an interest - rate cut recently. After his speech, the market's probability pricing of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in the Fed's December meeting rose to 70% [3]. 3.2 Strategy Suggestions - Given the increasing expectation of Fed's interest - rate cuts, it is advisable to buy precious metals on dips. The reference ranges for Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver main contracts are 896 - 960 yuan/gram and 11367 - 12639 yuan/kilogram respectively [3]. 3.3 Data Summary - Gold: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) rose 1.75% to 4133.80 dollars/ounce, while trading volume decreased by 13.77% to 21.82 million lots. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) rose 0.36% to 930.32 yuan/gram, and trading volume decreased by 19.60% to 47.25 million lots [5]. - Silver: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) rose 3.01% to 51.16 dollars/ounce, and its trading volume decreased by 28.51% to 210.82 million lots. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) rose 1.10% to 11,808.00 yuan/kilogram, and trading volume decreased by 28.51% to 210.82 million lots [5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **technology sector**, with a specific focus on **AI** and its implications for the **U.S. economy** and **global asset allocation**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Technology Capital Expenditure as a Key Variable** Technology capital expenditure is identified as a crucial factor influencing the global economic cycle and asset allocation in 2026, affecting major assets like the dollar, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. equities [2][4][12] 2. **Impact of AI on U.S. GDP Growth** The technology sector, particularly AI, contributes significantly to U.S. GDP growth, accounting for at least 0.5 percentage points of GDP increase. This contribution is more pronounced due to the U.S.'s leading position in technology capital expenditure compared to other countries like China [8][12] 3. **Current Monetary Policy Environment** The U.S. is currently in a loose monetary policy cycle, with the Federal Reserve likely to maintain this stance to address complex economic issues, reducing concerns about an AI bubble burst [5][6][7] 4. **Political Influence on Monetary Policy** The Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be influenced by political factors, leading to continued loose policies even in the face of improving employment data and rising inflation pressures [6][7] 5. **Global Capital Flows and the Dollar** AI development is expected to attract global capital into the U.S., supporting a strong dollar. In 2024, the U.S. technology sector is projected to outperform, maintaining a high dollar index despite potential trade war impacts [9][10] 6. **Debt Management through Technology Investment** The resolution of U.S. government debt issues relies heavily on technology capital expenditure and Federal Reserve policies. Sustained technology investment can attract foreign capital, aiding in debt management [14] 7. **Concerns about AI Bubble** Market concerns regarding an AI bubble are primarily focused on financing and over-investment issues. However, the current liquidity environment is relatively loose, mitigating these concerns [5][15] 8. **Future of the Dollar and Gold Prices** The strength of the dollar is influenced by economic cycles, demand changes, and liquidity conditions. While short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term strength of the dollar is tied to the performance of the technology sector [16] 9. **Investment Opportunities in December** December presents potential investment opportunities in the technology sector, especially if market concerns about financing and investment arise, coinciding with expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [17] Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **AI's Political Dimension** The current AI revolution is characterized by its strong political attributes, with the U.S. facing intense competition from China, leading to unprecedented governmental focus on technology development [11][12] 2. **Long-term Economic Strategy** The U.S. government is expected to increase investments in AI and emerging technologies to maintain its competitive edge, which will significantly impact global capital markets and international political economy [12][13]