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宏观经济专题报告:美国通胀风险越来越难对市场构成趋势性压制
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 01:53
Group 1 - The core driver of inflation risk in the U.S. is the significant increase in import tariffs, with the effective tariff rate rising to 9.1% as of June 2025, an increase of 6.9 percentage points since the beginning of the year [1][10][20] - The current inflation in core goods is primarily driven by high import dependence and low inventory levels in categories such as furniture, apparel, and leisure goods [1][10][28] - The direct impact of tariffs has been significant, with import prices rising approximately 5.4% since early March, indicating that about half of the tariff burden is passed on to consumer prices [1][10][30] Group 2 - The indirect effects of tariffs on domestic goods have shown a slowing trend, with price increases for domestic products that are similar to imported goods starting to decelerate from April onwards [1][10][35] - The correlation between tariffs and inflation increased from March to May but has not deepened further, suggesting a weakening relationship [1][10][39] - If the effective tariff rate rises to 15%, it is estimated that U.S. goods prices could increase by approximately 2.8% based on the average import dependence of 37% and a transmission coefficient of 1/2 [1][10][50] Group 3 - Service inflation has not shown a trend of significant rebound, with core service inflation being the largest contributor to nominal inflation, but expected to be dragged down by a weakening labor market [2][11][54] - The nominal Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to peak at around 3.2% in December 2025, followed by a gradual decline to approximately 2.3% by mid-2026 [2][11][70] - The overall inflation risk is expected to be lower than market expectations, indicating a potential for further monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve [2][11][73]
【环球财经】市场观望情绪浓重 纽约金价18日冲高回落小幅收跌
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 00:09
当天9月交割的白银期货价格收盘上涨4.5美分,报收于每盎司38.065美元,涨幅为0.12%。12月交割的 白银期货价格收盘上涨4美分,报收于每盎司38.560美元,涨幅为0.1%。 (文章来源:新华财经) 盘中金价一度冲高并再度触及3400美元关口。 分析来看,市场关注美乌双边会晤和即将召开的杰克逊霍尔央行年会,整体观望情绪浓重,金价短期缺 少明确的上涨或下跌驱动。 消息面上,美国总统特朗普18日在白宫与到访的乌克兰总统泽连斯基举行会晤后表示,下一步将筹备与 俄罗斯总统普京的美俄乌三方领导人会晤,他期待取得好成果。特朗普与普京15日在美国阿拉斯加州安 克雷奇市举行会晤。双方表示,会晤"具有建设性""富有成果",但未就俄乌停火等议题达成任何协议。 与此同时,美联储主席鲍威尔将在8月21日至23日的杰克逊霍尔会议上发表讲话,市场也期望从中获得 更多关于美联储货币政策前景的信息。 当前,市场对美联储在9月重启降息的预期高涨,主要分歧在于降息幅度的大小。据CME"美联储观 察"工具最新数据,美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为16.9%,降息25个基点的概率为83.1%。但有分析 师表示,市场有部分投资者押注美联储9月或 ...
美俄峰会牵动国际黄金 3300关口岌岌可危
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-18 02:09
Core Viewpoint - International gold prices faced a decline due to reduced risk appetite following comments from Putin about a potential new arms agreement with the U.S. and a significant increase in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, which raised concerns about inflation and diminished expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. PPI for July increased by 0.9%, marking the largest rise in three years, which has led to heightened market concerns regarding inflation pressures [2]. - Following the PPI data release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September dropped to 89.1% from approximately 95% prior to the announcement, indicating a shift in market sentiment [2]. Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices opened the week at $3,398.34 per ounce, reached a weekly high of $3,404.51, but subsequently fell over 1.6%, closing at $3,336.11, reflecting a total weekly decline of $62.23 or 1.83% [3]. - The fluctuations in gold prices suggest that the market is sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy expectations, with geopolitical uncertainties typically driving demand for gold [2].
美国通胀风险越来越难对市场构成趋势性压制
Orient Securities· 2025-08-17 05:16
Inflation Trends - The effective tariff rate for U.S. imports rose to 9.1% as of June 2025, with a cumulative increase of 6.9 percentage points since the beginning of the year[5] - Tariffs are expected to lead to an approximate 2.8% increase in U.S. goods prices based on a thumb rule calculation[40] - Core goods inflation is primarily driven by high import dependency and low inventory levels, particularly in categories like furniture and apparel[20] Economic Implications - The direct impact of tariffs results in about 50% of the tariff increase being passed on to consumer prices[24] - The indirect impact on domestic goods prices has shown signs of slowing, indicating limited transmission of tariff effects to local products[27] - Despite a rebound in goods inflation, core service inflation remains the largest contributor to nominal inflation, with a contribution of 82% to the CPI growth in June 2025[47] Future Projections - Inflation is expected to continue rebounding in the second half of 2025, with a peak CPI growth rate of approximately 3.2% by December 2025, followed by a decline to around 2.3% by mid-2026[56] - The market's consensus on inflation risks appears to be overestimated, particularly for mid-term projections, suggesting potential for further easing in monetary policy[61] - Political pressures may further influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, potentially leading to increased easing in 2026[64]
下周,全市场都盯着一个地方:杰克逊霍尔
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-08-17 01:18
Core Viewpoint - The upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole conference is anticipated to provide critical insights into the future path of U.S. monetary policy, amidst significant political pressure and economic challenges [1][3]. Group 1: Market Expectations - Investors are widely expecting a rate cut from the Federal Reserve in the coming weeks, which has driven stock markets, particularly interest-sensitive sectors, to historical highs [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the September meeting is over 92%, with expectations for at least one more cut within the year [2]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Powell faces a complex economic situation, balancing rising inflation due to tariff policies against signs of a cooling labor market and risks of economic slowdown [1][3]. - Recent economic data shows persistent inflation pressures, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.3% month-over-month in July, the largest increase since January, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) surging 0.9%, the highest monthly increase in over three years [5]. Group 3: Political Pressure - The Trump administration has intensified its criticism of Powell for not cutting rates quickly enough, creating a challenging environment for the Fed's decision-making [2][3]. - Historical precedents of political interference in monetary policy, such as during the Nixon administration, highlight the potential risks of maintaining low rates in the face of rising inflation [3]. Group 4: Fed's Independence - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to focus on the Fed's monetary policy framework review, which is crucial for maintaining the central bank's long-term independence [6][7]. - Adjustments to the policy framework may establish guiding principles that extend beyond Powell's tenure, addressing how to respond to supply shocks and balancing full employment with price stability [6].
铂族金属周报:价格表现弱势,等待联储货币政策驱动-20250816
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-16 14:52
1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The platinum - group metals market was previously trading on US tariff risks, with CME platinum and palladium inventories increasing significantly. As tariff trading receded and US inflation data exceeded expectations, market expectations for the Fed's interest - rate cuts declined, putting pressure on platinum - group metal prices. - Before the Fed's monetary policy shows a clear dovish turn, platinum - group metal prices are expected to remain weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now and wait for Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If there is a clear dovish stance, one can consider buying on dips at support levels [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Platinum Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX platinum contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 8.21%; the open interest of the main contract increased 3.23%; the NYMEX platinum inventory increased 6.87%; the net long position of CFTC managed funds increased by 503 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 60 lots; the platinum ETF holdings decreased 0.14% [9]. - **Palladium Key Data**: The closing price of the active NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce; the five - day average trading volume decreased 18.36%; the open interest of the main contract decreased 14.53%; the NYMEX palladium inventory increased 13.28%; the net short position of CFTC managed funds increased by 2219 lots; the net short position of CFTC commercial decreased by 482 lots; the palladium ETF holdings decreased 0.23% [9]. - **Technical Analysis**: The NYMEX platinum price is approaching the upward trend line, and attention should be paid to its reaction around the trend line. The NYMEX palladium price is at the trend - line support, and whether it can stabilize and rebound around the trend line needs attention [13][16]. 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The NYMEX platinum main contract rose 0.28% to $1345.2 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1179 lots to 81726 lots. The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price rose 2.52% to 323.8 yuan per gram, and the internal - external price difference rebounded. The one - month implied lease rate of platinum dropped to 14.65%, and the overseas spot shortage eased. As of August 12, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased by 503 lots to 12689 lots [21][27][31][36]. - **Palladium Price**: The NYMEX palladium main contract fell 1.85% to $1116 per ounce, and the open interest increased 1148 lots to 20191 lots. As of August 12, the net short position of NYMEX palladium managed funds was 4896 lots [24][39]. 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum**: As of August 15, the total platinum ETF holdings were 74.6 tons. The CME platinum inventory increased 1007 kg to 18.1 tons, with registered inventory decreasing and unregistered inventory increasing [50][57]. - **Palladium**: As of August 15, the total palladium ETF holdings were 13.21 tons. The CME palladium inventory increased 464.7 kg to 3963.9 kg, with both registered and unregistered inventories increasing [53][62]. 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 platinum mines is expected to be 127.47 tons, a 1.9% decrease compared to 2024, indicating a contraction in mine - end supply [68]. - **Palladium Supply**: The 2025 annual output of the top 15 palladium mines is expected to be 165.78 tons, a 0.86% decrease compared to 2024, showing a slight contraction [71]. - **Chinese Imports**: China's platinum imports in June were 11.79 tons, a decline from May; palladium imports in June were 2.34 tons, an increase from May [74][77]. - **Automobile Production**: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are provided, but no specific supply - demand conclusions are drawn from these data in the report. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The global platinum supply - demand balance in 2025F shows a deficit of 14.29 tons, while the global palladium supply - demand balance in 2025 shows a surplus of 3.50 tons [88][89]. 3.5 Monthly and Cross - Market Spreads - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [93][94][96][98]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spreads**: Data on spreads such as 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [100][102][104][105]. - **London Spot - NYMEX Spreads**: Data on the spreads between London spot platinum and NYMEX platinum, and London spot palladium and NYMEX palladium are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [107].
美联储,重大宣布
Zheng Quan Shi Bao· 2025-08-16 13:17
Core Points - The Federal Reserve has officially closed the "Novel Activities Supervision Program," which was designed to regulate banks' activities in the cryptocurrency and fintech sectors, and will now integrate this oversight into standard banking regulations [1][2] - The closure of the program follows a deeper understanding of the risks associated with cryptocurrency activities, particularly after the collapse of three banks closely tied to the crypto industry [2][3] - The recent actions by the Federal Reserve signal a trend of increasing acceptance of the cryptocurrency industry by U.S. regulators, moving away from previous stringent requirements [4] Regulatory Changes - The "Novel Activities Supervision Program" was established to enhance oversight of banks' involvement in digital assets and blockchain technology, focusing on areas such as crypto asset custody and stablecoin issuance [3] - The latest regulatory changes simplify compliance processes for banks engaging in cryptocurrency activities, while core regulatory principles like anti-money laundering and consumer protection remain unchanged [3] Market Sentiment - Financial markets are highly anticipating a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 92% probability of a 25 basis point reduction in September [6][7] - Recent inflation data has created uncertainty among Federal Reserve officials regarding the timing and extent of future rate cuts, with some officials suggesting a cautious approach [6][7]
突然!美联储,重大宣布!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 12:50
Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced the closure of the "Novel Activities Supervision Program," which was established to enhance the regulation of banks' activities related to cryptocurrencies and fintech [1][2] - The decision to close the program is based on the Federal Reserve's increased understanding of the risks associated with cryptocurrency activities and the integration of this knowledge into standard regulatory processes [2][3] - The closure follows the collapse of three banks closely tied to the cryptocurrency industry, highlighting the need for closer scrutiny of innovative technologies that may pose risks to the banking system [2][3] Group 2 - The "Novel Activities Supervision Program" focused on areas such as crypto asset custody, loans collateralized by cryptocurrencies, digital asset trading assistance, and the issuance of stablecoins and dollar tokens [3] - The latest regulatory changes simplify compliance processes for banks engaging in cryptocurrency activities, while core regulatory principles such as anti-money laundering and consumer protection remain unchanged [3] - The Federal Reserve's actions align with a broader trend among U.S. regulatory agencies to embrace the cryptocurrency industry, moving towards a more favorable regulatory environment [4] Group 3 - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing tariff uncertainties [6] - Recent inflation reports indicate a rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI) by 0.9% in July, driven primarily by service sector inflation, which has raised concerns about the inflation outlook [6][7] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September are high, with a 92% probability indicated by interest rate swap traders, although future rate cut probabilities show divergence [7]
【UNFX课堂】风暴前夕的沉思:鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔面临的三重困境
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 09:05
Group 1 - The Jackson Hole annual central bank symposium has evolved into a key platform for showcasing the policy thoughts of the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, amidst increasing political pressure and uncertain economic data [1][2] - Powell faces three core and challenging questions that will shape the potential path of the global macroeconomy and markets in the coming months [1] - The traditional economic theory that tariffs directly drive inflation is being challenged by current U.S. economic conditions, where the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth does not seem to stem from tariffs [1][2] Group 2 - There is a complex picture regarding import prices and domestic pricing strategies, with U.S. small businesses absorbing costs without raising prices, which may threaten future investment and profitability [1][2] - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to downplay the direct impact of tariffs on inflation while emphasizing data dependency to retain flexibility for the September interest rate decision [2][4] - The health of the labor market is a critical pillar of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, but recent conflicting narratives about employment data create a challenging environment for Powell [2][3] Group 3 - If there is a significant labor supply shortage, businesses would typically raise wages, yet wage growth remains moderate, undermining the credibility of the labor shortage narrative [3] - Powell's stance on the labor market is crucial; he must balance acknowledging potential risks without alarming the market excessively [3][4] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny due to ongoing calls for interest rate cuts from the White House, complicating Powell's decision-making process [3][4] Group 4 - The market is divided on the extent of potential interest rate cuts in September and throughout the year, reflecting high uncertainty in the economic outlook [4] - Powell is likely to use the Jackson Hole platform to reclaim the narrative on monetary policy, emphasizing the Fed's goal of maintaining economic expansion and the need for timely and flexible policy decisions [4] - The upcoming speech is seen as a balancing act for Powell, as he navigates market anxieties, economic data warnings, and the need to uphold the central bank's independence [4]
五矿期货贵金属日报-20250815
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 01:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The unexpectedly high US inflation data released last night and the Fed officials' cautious stance on interest rate cuts have put short - term pressure on precious metal prices [2][3]. - The much - higher - than - expected PPI data in July shows that Trump's tariff policy has significantly affected US prices. Fed officials' statements around the data release were generally hawkish [3]. - Despite the current resilience of US inflation data, due to factors such as US debt interest payments and Trump administration intervention, the Fed will implement a further easing cycle. It is recommended to wait and see for now and consider buying on dips after the price stabilizes. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver, it is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Changes - Shanghai Gold (Au) dropped 0.55% to 774.54 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) dropped 1.31% to 9197.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX Gold fell 0.12% to 3379.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX Silver fell 0.12% to 38.03 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.29%, and the US dollar index was 98.21 [2]. - In the comparison of recent trading days, various precious - metal - related products showed different price and volume changes, such as Au(T + D) rising 0.05% to 775.10 yuan/gram, and London Gold falling 0.61% to 3343.85 dollars/ounce [4]. US Economic Data - In July, the US PPI year - on - year value was 3.3%, much higher than the expected 2.5% and the previous value of 2.4%. The month - on - month value was 0.9%, significantly higher than the expected 0.2% and the previous value of 0% [3]. Trading Suggestions - Given the current market situation, it is recommended to wait and see for now. After the precious metal prices stabilize after a correction, consider buying on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 766 - 788 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai Silver, it is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [3]. Data Tables and Graphs - Multiple data tables presented detailed information on precious - metal prices, trading volumes, positions, and inventories in different markets and time periods, such as the COMEX and SHFE gold and silver markets [6]. - There are also various graphs showing the relationships between precious - metal prices, US dollar index, real interest rates, and other factors, as well as the near - far month structure and price spreads of precious metals [8][11][21].