Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated a reduction in the number of anticipated rate cuts for 2026 to just one [3] - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.4% and increased its inflation prediction (PCE) to 2.7%, suggesting a normalization of high interest rates [3] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, have led to a preference for dollar assets over gold as a safe haven, impacting gold prices negatively [5] Group 2 - Following the Fed's announcement, gold prices fell nearly 4% below $5,000 per ounce due to delayed rate cuts raising the cost of holding gold and triggering sell-offs from investors [5] - If the Iran conflict extends into the second quarter of 2026, gold may face further pressure as the U.S. economy is expected to grow between 2% and 2.5%, with inflation remaining around 3% by the end of 2026, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts [5] - In a scenario where high inflation and economic stagnation coexist, the Fed may be forced to cut rates, potentially pushing gold prices above $6,000 per ounce, with predictions reaching $6,500 per ounce [6] Group 3 - Continuous gold purchases by global central banks, including those from China, provide medium to long-term demand support for gold [7] - A sustained high inflation environment in the U.S. could lead to lower real interest rates, which would negatively impact the dollar index but benefit gold [7] - The trend of de-dollarization and weakening dollar credit may enhance the investment value of gold [7]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Outcomes - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, with a probability of over 99% for no rate cut at this meeting[2][5] - One dissenting vote was recorded, with Stephen Miran advocating for a 25 basis point cut, contrasting with the majority's decision to keep rates unchanged[5] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Inflation - The Fed raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points, reflecting concerns over potential supply shocks[3][10] - Powell expressed optimism regarding inflation, suggesting that recent energy supply shocks are likely to be temporary[3][7] Group 3: Employment and Economic Concerns - The Fed noted that the absolute level of new job creation is too low, indicating potential risks in the labor market[3][8] - The unemployment rate remains stable at 4.4%, with no significant changes observed in recent months[10] Group 4: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is influencing the Fed's decision-making, with potential delays in rate cuts depending on developments in the region[3][13] - Following the Fed's meeting, major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 1.63%, S&P 500 down 1.36%, and Nasdaq down 1.46%[4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75% and paused rate cuts for the second consecutive time in 2026. The Fed continued its cautious tone and will maintain a "wait - and - see" attitude due to complex internal and external situations. The threshold for rate cuts has significantly increased, and the Fed will not consider rate cuts without further improvement in inflation. Although rate hikes are not the baseline scenario, internal discussions among officials have increased. The expectation of rate cuts within the year may converge, and attention should be paid to the persistence of the Middle East situation and high oil prices [5][7][29] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Statement - Overall, it changed little compared to January. The description of the unemployment rate was adjusted from "showing certain signs of stabilization" to "little change in recent months", and the statement "the impact of the development of the Middle East situation on the US economy is uncertain" was added. Only one person voted against the decision, and Fed Governor Milan voted against for the fifth consecutive time, advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut [13][14] 3.2 Economic Forecast - **GDP Growth**: The GDP growth expectations for 2026 - 2028 and the long - term were raised. The expected real GDP growth rates for 2026, 2027, 2028, and the long - term are 2.4% (previous value 2.3%), 2.3% (previous value 2.0%), 2.1% (previous value 1.9%), and 2.0% (previous value 1.8%) respectively [2][15] - **Unemployment**: The unemployment rate expectation for 2027 was raised by 0.1 percentage point to 4.3%, while the unemployment rates in 2026 and 2028 remained at 4.4% and 4.2% respectively [2][15] - **Inflation**: The PCE inflation and core PCE inflation expectations for this year and next year were raised. In 2026, the PCE and core PCE expectations were raised by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% and 2.7% respectively. In 2027, both PCE inflation and core PCE inflation expectations were raised by 0.1 percentage point to 2.2% [2][15] - **Dot Plot**: The March dot plot predicts one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, with the median remaining the same as in December. The Fed's interest rate outlook for the next three years remained basically unchanged, indicating only one rate cut in 2026 and 2027. The long - term interest rate median was raised to around 3.1%, with less than two rate - cut spaces. The high dispersion of officials' forecasts for 2027 indicates significant differences in their views on the subsequent rate - cut amplitude, increasing policy uncertainty [3][18] 3.3 Labor Market - The employment market is in a fragile balance of weak supply and demand, with certain downward risks. Current employment growth is at a low level, labor demand has weakened significantly, and labor supply has declined simultaneously due to factors such as immigration. In February, the number of new non - farm employment in the US decreased by 92,000. Although the unemployment rate has basically remained around 4.4% since September 2025, the Fed warned that energy shocks may have a negative impact on employment and the overall economy [5][20] 3.4 Inflation - Tariffs and energy prices are putting double pressure on inflation, and the process of inflation decline has slowed down. The core CPI in the US in February dropped to the lowest level in nearly five years, but the oil - price shock caused by the Middle East situation was not reflected in the February data. The Fed raised the inflation expectations for this year and next year. The inflation cooling process in the US has significantly slowed down, short - term inflation expectations have rebounded in recent weeks, and commodity inflation may not decline significantly until mid - year [5][24]

FICC日报 | 2026-03-19 地缘局势变化，股指探底回升 市场分析 美联储按兵不动。宏观方面，外交部发言人3月18日主持例行记者会，在回答有关中美高层交往的问题时表示，元 首外交对中美关系发挥着不可替代的战略引领作用，中美双方将继续就特朗普总统访华事保持沟通。地缘方面， 伊朗最大的天然气田——南帕尔斯气田和阿萨卢耶部分石油化工设施遭美国和以色列袭击，这是伊朗上游油气设 施首次成为攻击目标。海外方面，美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.50%-3.75%不变，连续第二次"按兵不 动"，符合市场预期。点阵图显示2026-2027年仅各降息1次，降息路径更加保守，凸显美联储在多重风险下的谨慎 观望立场。鲍威尔表示，若通胀无进展，将不会降息。绝大多数人不认为加息是基本预期，但下一步行动是加息 的可能性确实被提及。 指数探底回升。现货市场，A股三大指数探底回升，上证指数涨0.32%收于4062.98点，创业板指涨2.02%。行业方 面，板块指数涨多跌少，通信、计算机、电子行业涨幅超2%，石油石化、房地产、食品饮料行业跌幅居前。当日 市场成交额为2.3万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌1.63%报 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [8] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts are escalating, and Powell's remarks in the interest rate meeting have dampened the expectation of easing policies this year. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate, with the Au2604 contract oscillating between 1,050 yuan/gram and 1,110 yuan/gram [8] - Silver prices are also expected to oscillate, with the Ag2606 contract oscillating between 18,800 yuan/kilogram and 19,800 yuan/kilogram. It is recommended to short the gold-silver ratio at high levels and postpone options trading [9] Market Analysis - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have suddenly increased. Iran's largest natural gas field was attacked by the US and Israel. Iran announced it would strike US-related oil facilities and listed the energy facilities of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as legitimate targets. The US President may consider targeting more Iranian energy facilities depending on Iran's actions in the Strait of Hormuz [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, staying on hold for the second consecutive time. Fed Chair Powell denied that the US economy is in stagflation, emphasizing that the policy stance is appropriate and rate cuts require sustained progress in inflation. The possibility of a rate hike was also mentioned [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volume - On March 18, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,115.70 yuan/gram and closed at 1,113.52 yuan/gram, a -0.24% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 1,089.00 yuan/gram and closed at 1,088.90 yuan/gram, a -2.21% drop from the afternoon close [2] - On March 18, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,309.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,980.00 yuan/kilogram, a -1.62% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 552,862 lots, and the open interest was 225,308 lots. In the night session, it opened at 19,392 yuan/kilogram and closed at 19,170 yuan/kilogram, a -4.05% drop from the afternoon close [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On March 18, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.261%, a -0.40 BP change from the previous trading day. The 10-year and 2-year spread was 0.49%, a -0.40 BP change from the previous trading day [3] Changes in Positions and Trading Volume of Precious Metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange - On the Au2604 contract, long positions decreased by 2,753 lots, and short positions increased by 36 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai Gold contracts was 215,772 lots, a -9.34% change from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2606 contract, long positions increased by 5,085 lots, and short positions increased by 2,041 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 887,270 lots, a -0.13% change from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metals ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF position was 1,069.56 tons, a decrease of 1.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF position was 15,390 tons, an increase of 34 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking - On March 18, 2026, the domestic gold premium was 6.77 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was 380.37 yuan/kilogram. The price ratio of the main gold and silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was about 55.73, a 1.40% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.40, a -1.21% change from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On March 18, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d market was 47,378 kilograms, a 20.87% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,668,560 kilograms, an 867.21% change from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kilograms [7]

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations, with a probability of over 99% for no rate cut at this meeting[2][5] - The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for April 29, 2026[2] Economic Outlook - The Fed raised its 2026 PCE inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points, reflecting potential supply shocks[3][10] - Concerns about stagflation were noted, with low job creation levels posing risks to the economy[3][8] Geopolitical Factors - The Fed's decision to pause rate cuts is influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, which could delay future rate cuts[3][14] - Oil prices surged past $105 per barrel following military actions in the region, impacting market stability[13] Market Reactions - Major U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow Jones down 1.63%, S&P 500 down 1.36%, and Nasdaq down 1.46%[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6 basis points to 4.26%, while the 2-year yield increased by 8 basis points to 3.76%[4] Future Rate Cut Expectations - The Fed's future rate cut path will depend heavily on developments in the Middle East, with potential for 2-3 cuts later in 2026 if tensions ease[14] - Current projections suggest a likelihood of no rate cuts until 2027, with market expectations reflecting this outlook[14]

Monetary Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations, with a voting outcome of 11-1[1] - The dot plot indicates a median forecast of one rate cut in 2026 (3.25%-3.50) and one in 2027 (3.00%-3.25), with increased divergence among officials[2] - The Fed emphasized the uncertainty surrounding the impact of Middle Eastern developments on the U.S. economy, particularly regarding oil prices[1] Economic Projections - The GDP growth forecast for 2026 was revised up from 2.3% to 2.4%, while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 4.4%[3] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2026 was increased from 2.4% to 2.7%, with core PCE inflation also rising from 2.5% to 2.7%[3] - Increased uncertainty was noted for GDP growth, unemployment, and PCE inflation, indicating heightened risks in these areas[3] Market Reactions - Following the meeting, U.S. stock indices fell: S&P 500 down 1.36%, Nasdaq down 1.46%, and Dow Jones down 1.63%[6] - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 6.46 basis points to 4.265%, while the dollar index increased by 0.74% to 100.3[6] - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 dropped significantly, with implied cuts falling from 1.02 to 0.59 times[6] Future Outlook - The Fed's stance suggests a cautious approach amid rising uncertainties, particularly regarding oil prices and their potential inflationary effects[7] - The likelihood of a rate cut this year is now less than once, with a focus on labor market conditions and inflation trends[7] - Analysts recommend vigilance regarding potential deep corrections in the stock market due to tightening global liquidity conditions[7]

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate (FFR) target range at 3.50%-3.75% during the March meeting[2] - The tone of the statement was hawkish, with upward revisions to inflation and economic forecasts, and a contraction in rate cut expectations reflected in the dot plot[1] - Board member Milan voted against the decision, favoring a 25 basis point rate cut[1] Economic Forecasts - The Fed revised its GDP growth forecasts for 2026, 2027, and 2028 upwards by 0.1, 0.3, and 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2027 was adjusted up by 0.1 percentage points to 4.3%[2] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were raised by 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points to 2.7% and 2.2% respectively[2] Rate Cut Expectations - The dot plot indicates a median expectation of one rate cut this year, with a split of 12 in favor and 7 against among participants[2] - The number of participants expecting no rate cut, one rate cut, and more than two rate cuts this year is 7, 7, and 5 respectively, compared to 4, 4, and 8 in December[2] Forward Guidance - Chairman Powell emphasized a wait-and-see approach, stating that progress on inflation is a prerequisite for any rate cuts[3] - Powell noted that the impact of energy price shocks would depend on inflation expectations and the timing of tariff-related inflation declines[3] Oil Price Impact - Under the assumption of rising oil prices for 1-2 months, the Fed may only cut rates once this year, as the economic impact of high oil prices is expected to be limited[4] - The U.S. is a net oil exporter, which reduces the economic shock from high oil prices[4]

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Meeting Notes Industry Overview - The notes pertain to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which influences the broader financial markets, including equities and bonds. Core Insights and Arguments 1. The FOMC decided to maintain the current interest rates, signaling a hawkish stance overall [1] 2. Following the FOMC meeting, both the U.S. stock and bond markets experienced declines, while the U.S. dollar strengthened, surpassing the 100 mark [2] 3. The dot plot indicates that the median forecast for interest rate cuts remains similar to previous projections, with expected cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 and 2027, and no cuts anticipated in 2028 [3] 4. There is a narrowing of disagreements among committee members, with the most aggressive stance likely held by member Milan, who advocates for a 100 basis point cut this year [3] 5. The language in the interest rate decision was modified to reflect increased concerns regarding the labor market and inflation, indicating a deterioration in the assessment of the labor market [3] 6. The decision saw only one dissenting vote, with Milan advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3] 7. The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) has been revised to show an upward adjustment in GDP and inflation forecasts [3] 8. Powell emphasized that despite inflation concerns, the current economic environment cannot be compared to the stagflation of the 1970s, citing uncertainty regarding the duration and magnitude of oil price increases [3] 9. Powell mentioned that he would serve as interim chair if his successor is not confirmed by the end of his term, and he intends to remain on the board until the investigation concludes transparently [3] 10. The current priority for Federal Reserve policy is inflation over employment, with Powell asserting that there will be no rate cuts without visible progress in reducing inflation [3] 11. The committee will not hastily raise interest rates, despite discussions among members [4][5] 12. Historical decision-making patterns indicate that the Fed has maintained a stable and predictable approach, even during significant economic events, such as the Silicon Valley Bank incident in 2023 [6] 13. The market outlook warns of asymmetric risks, particularly concerning oil prices' impact on inflation, which could disrupt the anticipated easing of monetary policy [6] 14. The potential for inflation to exceed expectations due to rising oil prices from geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S.-Iran conflict, poses a risk to the previously certain easing direction [6] 15. The incoming Fed Chair, Walsh, is expected to have a hawkish stance, potentially reducing the likelihood of a "Fed put" [6] 16. Current equity markets exhibit asymmetric risks, with limited upside potential and significant downside risks stemming from inflationary tightening expectations [7] 17. Additional risks include marginal changes in employment data raising concerns about economic growth and vulnerabilities in private credit leading to potential financial contagion [8] Other Important Content - The notes highlight the Fed's cautious approach to monetary policy amidst evolving economic conditions and geopolitical uncertainties, emphasizing the importance of monitoring inflation and labor market dynamics closely [3][6]

供应方面,云南及江西地区冶炼厂加工费月环比上涨2000元/吨,12月进口锡精矿实物量 17637吨,折金属5191.6吨,环比增长13.3%,同比增长40.2%;截至3月17日,从印尼交易 所已出口2085吨锡锭,预计后期印尼出口水平或将稳定。需求方面,下游采购偏谨慎,下 游企业将逐步开始复产复工,但订单情况较为平淡,下游电子、光伏等行业当前终端消费 表现不及预期，企业规模性补库意愿不强。综上所述，中东局势持续胶着，同时美联储释 放鹰派信号令年内降息预期大幅缩水,预计短期锡价偏弱震荡,关注锡价35万元一线表 现;对锡价中长期看涨逻辑依旧存在,短期调整或提供长线多单布局机会 锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年3月19日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 现货价格及基差 品种 现值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 前值 SMM 1#锡 369500 -10850 -2.85% 380350 SMM 1#锡升贴水 1650 1900 -250 -13.16% 元/吨 长江 1#锡 370000 380850 -10850 -2.85% LME 0-3升贴水 -203.00 -91.00 -1 ...