Core Viewpoint - Silver TD prices have shown a significant increase, currently trading above 22,394, with a notable rise of 7.82% from the opening price of 21,125 [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Federal Reserve's Musalem indicated that inflation risks are easing, predicting prices will return to the Fed's target later this year [1] - He noted that after last year's rate cuts, the Fed's monetary policy is well-positioned to address price stability and employment risks [1] - Current interest rates are close to neutral levels, suggesting no further rate cuts are necessary despite ongoing inflation concerns [1] Group 2: Silver TD Market Analysis - Silver TD prices continued to rise, with an increase of over 8% today, reaching a high of 22,860 and a low of 21,125 [1] - Technical indicators show a bullish trend, with the MACD histogram in positive territory and the RSI nearing overbought levels [1] - Short-term outlook remains bullish, with support levels identified between 20,500 and 21,000, and resistance levels between 22,500 and 23,000 [1]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 398.21 points, a decrease of 0.80%, while the Nasdaq dropped by 0.1% and the S&P 500 declined by 0.19% [1] - Bank stocks experienced a widespread decline, with the KBW Bank Index down by 1.3% and JPMorgan Chase falling by 4.2% [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed results, with Intel rising over 7% to reach a nearly two-year high, while AMD increased by over 6%. However, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft all fell by more than 1% [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped by 1.86%, with notable declines in Pinduoduo (over 5%), NIO and Xpeng (over 3%), and JD.com and Li Auto (over 1%) [1] Commodity Market - The FTSE China A50 Index futures closed down by 0.01% at 15,398 points [2] - Crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose by 2.90%, closing at 450.40 RMB per barrel [2] - Spot silver increased by 2.11%, reaching $86.92, with an intraday surge exceeding 4% [3] - Both New York and Brent crude oil prices rose by over 2% [5] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, with a core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 2.6% [8] - The U.S. government recorded a fiscal deficit of $145 billion in December 2025, a 67% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high for that month [8] - Analysts from Morgan Stanley noted that the December inflation data may contain "technical noise" due to the previous government shutdown, potentially affecting its predictive value for future Federal Reserve policy [8] - The market currently anticipates a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting [8] Federal Reserve Outlook - St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem indicated that inflation-related risks are diminishing, and he expects prices to align more closely with the Fed's target later this year [9] - Musalem stated that current monetary policy is appropriately positioned to address risks related to both price stability and employment [9] - Investors believe the likelihood of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting is low, but anticipate two rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points [9] Venezuela Market Developments - Following significant political changes in Venezuela, the country's benchmark stock index surged over 130% since January 3, driven by expectations of economic recovery and U.S. government proposals for oil revitalization [9][10] - The U.S. White House has requested major oil companies to invest in Venezuela to restore its oil extraction infrastructure [10] - Teucrium, an ETF issuer, has applied to establish what is believed to be the first ETF focused on companies with exposure to Venezuela, indicating a potential opening for global capital into this previously closed market [10]

Group 1: Market Performance - Bank stocks experienced a broad decline, with the KBW Bank Index falling by 1.3% and JPMorgan Chase down by 4.2% [1] - Technology stocks showed mixed results, with Intel rising over 7% to reach a nearly two-year high, while AMD increased by over 6%. However, Meta, Amazon, and Microsoft all dropped by more than 1% [1] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.86%, with notable declines in Pinduoduo (over 5%), NIO and Xpeng (over 3%), and JD.com and Li Auto (over 1%) [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - Crude oil futures saw an increase, with the Shanghai International Energy Exchange's crude oil futures contract rising by 2.90% to 450.40 RMB per barrel [1] - International oil prices also rose, with light crude oil futures for February delivery increasing by $1.65 to $61.15 per barrel (up 2.77%) and Brent crude for March delivery rising by $1.60 to $65.47 per barrel (up 2.51%) [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with a core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 2.6% [6] - The U.S. government recorded a fiscal deficit of $145 billion in December 2025, a 67% increase year-on-year, marking a historical high for that month [6] - Economists suggest that despite a weak job market, persistent inflation concerns may lead the Federal Reserve to be cautious in deciding whether to ease monetary policy in 2026 [7] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Alberto Musalem indicated that inflation-related risks are diminishing, and he expects prices to align more closely with the Fed's target later this year [8] - Investors believe the likelihood of another rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is low, but anticipate two rate cuts in 2026, each by 25 basis points [8] Group 5: Venezuela Market Developments - Venezuela's benchmark stock index surged over 130% since January 3, following significant political changes, driven by investor optimism regarding a potential economic turnaround [9] - The U.S. White House has requested major oil companies to invest in Venezuela to restore its oil extraction infrastructure, indicating a potential opening for global capital in this previously closed market [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that expert predictions are based on probabilities rather than certainties, and the market often misinterprets these insights as definitive forecasts [1][4] - The analysis of the potential for a market peak in the second half of the year is linked to four key factors: Federal Reserve monetary policy, domestic industrial product prices (PPI), RMB exchange rate, and capital flows [1][6] - The current market environment presents both opportunities and risks, with external favorable conditions and internal recovery providing a window for investment, while uncertainties and inflation pressures pose potential threats [3][7] Group 2 - Historical context shows that market cycles are influenced by various factors, and the prediction of a peak in the second half of the year is based on the convergence of macroeconomic indicators [6][9] - The importance of a stable policy environment is highlighted, as it is crucial for market predictability and coherent reform paths, which can support investor confidence [7][9] - Investors are advised to focus on fundamentals and valuations rather than being swayed by short-term market trends, emphasizing the need for disciplined investment strategies [3][11]

Core Insights - The upcoming CPI data is expected to show resilience in inflation trends, potentially marking the end of the previous slowdown in price growth [1][3] - The consensus forecast for December's overall CPI and core CPI is a year-over-year increase of 2.7%, with core CPI slightly accelerating from 2.6% [1][3] Inflation Data and Market Expectations - The sticky nature of inflation supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in the short term, with a low probability of rate cuts in the near future [3][12] - Analysts suggest that the unexpected decline in November's inflation data was largely influenced by technical factors, and December's data will reflect the true price levels after these distortions are removed [3][9] Monthly Data Recovery - Key focus for December's CPI data is the recovery in month-over-month growth rates, with estimates for both overall and core inflation indices expected to rise to 0.3% from November's 0.2% [4][6] - Some economists predict that core inflation may show even stronger monthly performance, potentially reaching 0.4% [4][6] Statistical Biases from Government Shutdown - The potential strength in December's data is attributed to the reversal of the "shutdown effect," which previously hindered data collection [9][10] - Two significant statistical biases from the government shutdown are identified: dual-month sampling bias and holiday discount bias, which affected November's data [10][11] Sector-Specific Price Movements - Economists anticipate noticeable rebounds in prices for hotels, airfare, and clothing, with core goods and services inflation expected to accelerate [11] - However, some analysts predict only moderate increases in owner’s equivalent rent (OER), which could help control December's inflation figures [11] Future Inflation Pressures - Inflation pressures are shifting from service-related costs to tariff-related costs, with companies increasingly looking to pass on rising input costs to consumers [11][12] - Concerns about the potential impact of tariffs on inflation are highlighted, with expectations of price increases in early 2026 [12] Federal Reserve Policy and Independence Concerns - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains in a precarious state, with inflation consistently above the 2% target [13] - There are concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly in light of recent legal actions against its chairman [13] Market Reaction Predictions - Predictions for the upcoming CPI data suggest varying impacts on the S&P 500 index based on core CPI month-over-month rates, with different probabilities assigned to potential market movements [14][15] - The foreign exchange market is closely monitoring the data, especially the USD/JPY currency pair, which typically reacts strongly to U.S. data releases [15][18]

2026年01月13日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 | 招商评论 | | | --- | --- | | 贵 | 市场表现：周一贵金属价格继续走高，伦敦金盘中触及 4600 美元/盎司，伦敦银价站上 85 美元/盎司。 | | 金 | 基本面：美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家都将面临 25%的关税；特朗普 | | 属 | 向最高法院喊话，若就关税作出不利裁决，美将无法负担代价；白宫新闻秘书称特朗普周一否认指示调查鲍 | | | 威尔，但强调总统有权批评美联储主席。国内黄金 ETF 继续小幅流入 0.4 吨，COMEX 黄金库存为 1129.3 吨， | | | 维持不变；上期所黄金库存为 94.7 吨，维持不变，SPDR 黄金 ETF 持仓为 1064.6 吨，维持不变；COMEX | | | 白银库存为 13605.1 吨，-70.1 吨；上期所白银库存为 649.6 吨，+29.4 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 16347.5 | | | 吨，+39.5 吨；金交所上周库存 818.5 吨，-44 吨；伦敦 12 月末白银库存从 271 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - London gold is currently trading around 1026 CNY/gram, with the latest price at 1027.10 CNY/gram, reflecting a decline of 0.41%. The highest price reached was 1033.27 CNY/gram, while the lowest was 1026.25 CNY/gram, indicating a short-term sideways trend in the market [1]. - The daily chart shows that gold prices have been closing with gains, despite a pullback at the end of the previous day. The current price is above the upper boundary of the daily chart, suggesting two possible scenarios: a potential upward movement after a pullback or the formation of a "piercing line" pattern if prices reach the upper channel boundary near 4650 [4]. - Key support levels are identified at 4578, 462, 4506, and 4463, while resistance levels are noted at 4600, 4609, 4625, 4648, and 4687 [5]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Policy - New York Fed President Williams indicated that the U.S. economy is expected to grow healthily by 2026, suggesting no immediate need for interest rate cuts. He stated that the Federal Open Market Committee has adjusted monetary policy to a "near-neutral" level, balancing employment stability and inflation targeting at 2% [2]. - Williams projected a GDP growth rate of 2.5%-2.75% for the year, with the unemployment rate stabilizing and inflation peaking at 2.75%-3% in the first half of the year before declining to 2.5% for the full year, returning to the 2% target by 2027 [2]. - The backdrop of these statements includes unprecedented attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve, with political pressures potentially impacting future policy decisions [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Euro to Dollar exchange rate remains stable around 1.1665 as the market digests political dynamics surrounding the Federal Reserve, particularly an investigation into Chairman Powell's testimony regarding building renovations [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Dollar Dynamics - Analysts indicate that public disagreements between the Federal Reserve and the government often negatively impact the Dollar's performance [3] - The political environment surrounding the Federal Reserve is putting pressure on the Dollar, while expectations of a shift in European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy provide support for the Euro [4] Group 2: European Central Bank and Euro Support - ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos has stated that current interest rates are nearing appropriate levels, but geopolitical uncertainties must be closely monitored [3] - The futures market indicates that investors generally expect the ECB to maintain interest rates at the next meeting, with a low likelihood of rate hikes in the next two years [4] - The anticipated stability in ECB policy is providing fundamental support for the Euro amid a challenging economic recovery in the Eurozone [4] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Comparisons - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index data is expected to influence Dollar movements, with a significant deviation from the forecast potentially strengthening the Dollar or further supporting the Euro [4] - The structural differences between the U.S. and European economies, particularly in response to geopolitical risks and energy prices, may impact future exchange rate trends [5] - Historical experiences suggest that political pressures on major central banks can affect monetary policy transmission mechanisms, leading to increased market volatility in the short term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Department of Justice has initiated a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve itself, focusing on the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters and potential perjury before Congress [1] Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation reportedly began in November of the previous year, with subpoenas issued without prior notification to the White House, senior officials at the Justice Department, or the Treasury [1] - The U.S. Attorney's Office for the District of Columbia is examining whether Powell committed perjury regarding the renovation project [1] Group 2: Responses and Implications - Powell confirmed that the Justice Department has issued subpoenas and suggested that the investigation is a pretext for increased pressure on him regarding interest rate decisions [1] - President Trump denied any involvement in the subpoenas issued to the Federal Reserve but criticized Powell's performance, stating that he has not done well enough [1] Group 3: Historical Context - Powell was nominated as Federal Reserve Chairman during Trump's first term in November 2017 and has faced criticism from Trump since then, particularly regarding interest rate hikes [1] - Trump has previously attempted to influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions and has publicly criticized Powell for being slow to act on interest rate cuts [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stocks, with the entry of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - For bonds, the improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. - For precious metals, if the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, most metal prices are expected to be volatile. For example, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term; aluminum prices are expected to remain high; zinc and lead prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [13][15][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom; iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level; glass and soda ash markets are generally weak; coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [32][34][37]. - For energy and chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be treated neutrally; the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised; methanol has the feasibility of buying on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies [55][57][59]. - For agricultural products, the short - term trend of hog prices is expected to be stable or slightly rising, and different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods; egg prices are expected to be stable or rising, and different strategies are also recommended for different contract periods [79][80][81]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products promoted a "soft landing" of the EU's anti - subsidy case on electric vehicles; Lihong No.1 completed its first sub - orbital flight test; Brain - Machine Haihe Laboratory completed the first "space brain - machine interface experiment"; prices of multiple non - ferrous and precious metal futures reached new highs [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: Different ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts in different periods [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With incremental funds entering at the beginning of the year, the financing scale has increased significantly, and the market trading volume has rapidly expanded. In the long - term, the policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. Strategically, the idea of buying on dips is recommended [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Monday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.30%, 0.07%, 0.05%, and 0.00% respectively. The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China, and the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued relevant policies on government investment funds [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 861 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Monday, with a net investment of 361 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market, but the sustainability of economic recovery momentum needs to be observed. The central bank's attitude of caring for funds remains, and the bond market is expected to be volatile and weak [8]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.31%, and Shanghai silver rose 7.23%. The US federal prosecutor launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, which impacted the Fed's independence [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the silver price stabilizes, it will continue a new upward trend, and the driving force for the gold price remains strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the support of gold and silver prices around the BCOM and tariff adjustment nodes and buy on dips after short - term negative factors end [10]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Silver prices were strong, and the domestic equity market strengthened, driving copper prices to rise. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has weakened, and short - term sentiment may cool down. The copper mine supply is in a tight pattern, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [13]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: The general atmosphere of bulk commodities was strong, and aluminum prices fluctuated and rose. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The high - level fluctuations of precious metals and non - ferrous metals have increased, and short - term sentiment may cool down. Aluminum prices are expected to remain high [15]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and LME zinc also increased. Zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price has a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. It is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [18]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and LME lead also increased. Lead ingot social inventory increased [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is approaching the upper edge of the long - term oscillation range, and it is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector [19]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron also changed accordingly [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [20][21]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices rose significantly. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin market demand is weak, and the supply is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see. The price is expected to fluctuate following the market risk preference [22]. 3.2.7 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The "rush to export" effect has increased the demand expectation, but the rapid rise may increase the callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose, and the inventory continued to accumulate [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The mine price is expected to decline, and the alumina market continues to face over - capacity. It is recommended to wait and see and consider shorting on rallies [25]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price was stable, and the social inventory decreased [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [27]. 3.2.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rose, and the inventory increased slightly [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed. The price is expected to remain high in the short term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory of rebar increased slightly while that of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom. It is necessary to pay attention to the de - stocking of hot - rolled coil and relevant policies [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price rose, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a relatively high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the steel mill's replenishment and iron - making rhythm [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The soda ash main contract price increased, and the inventory increased [35][37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see. The soda ash market is generally weak [36][37]. 3.3.4 Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke rose. The spot prices of coking coal and coke also changed [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market sentiment is positive, but the fundamental support for the price is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [40][41]. 3.3.5 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The spot prices also changed [42]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future market trend is mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore and "dual - carbon" policies [45]. 3.3.6 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon rose slightly, and the price of polysilicon decreased. The inventory of industrial silicon may increase, and the supply of polysilicon may be adjusted [46][48]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to face inventory pressure, and polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile. It is necessary to pay attention to relevant policies and production plans [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated and rebounded. The tire start - up rate had marginal fluctuations, and the inventory increased [51][53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall commodity atmosphere is positive, but the rubber seasonality is weak. A neutral strategy is recommended, and short - selling can be considered if the price falls below a certain level [55]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main contract price of INE crude oil rose, and the inventories of refined oil products changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Latin American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - quality oil products is raised [57]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol changed, and the main contract price decreased [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and it has the feasibility of buying on dips [59]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of urea changed slightly, and the main contract price increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window has opened, and it is recommended to take profits on rallies [62]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The inventory of pure benzene increased, and the inventory of styrene decreased [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene can be long - bought before the first quarter [64]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic PVC market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to short on rallies [66]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ethylene glycol market needs to increase production cuts to improve the supply - demand pattern. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks [68]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. It is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips [70]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene main contract price rose, and the inventory decreased [71][72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - buying opportunities following the crude oil price [73]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE main contract price rose, and the inventory increased [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may be supported, and it is recommended to long - buy the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [75]. 3.4.11 Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The PP main contract price rose, and the inventory situation was complex [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year [77]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Hogs - **Market Information**: The domestic hog price was mixed, and the price may stabilize or rise slightly [79]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term hog price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [80]. 3.5.2 Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price mostly rose, and the price is expected to be stable or rise [81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term egg price may support the futures price, but in the medium - term, supply pressure exists. Different trading strategies are recommended for different contract periods [82]. 3.5.3 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The import cost of soybeans may have a bottom, but the fundamental situation is weak [83][84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the combination of long - and short - term factors [84]. 3.5.4 Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price fluctuated. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased, and the domestic three - major oil inventories were at a relatively high level [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamental situation is weak, but the long - term expectation is optimistic. The oil price may be close to the bottom [86]. 3.5.5 Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated. The spot price of sugar decreased slightly [87]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The international sugar price may rebound after February, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [89]. 3.5.6 Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price decreased. The cotton supply and demand situation changed [90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price may fluctuate after rising. It is recommended to wait for a callback to buy [91].