美国国会预算办公室（CBO）当地时间2月11日发布报告，上调2035年末的累计赤字预估，相较于2025 年1月的先前预测提高6%。 报告称，年度赤字将从今年的1.9万亿美元增至2036年的3.1万亿美元；2026年赤字占GDP的5.8%，到 2036年将增至6.7%，高于过去50年3.8%的平均水平。 ...

报告预计，2026财年（2025年10月至2026年9月）美国财政预算赤字将达到1.9万亿美元，相比此前预期 上调1000亿美元，占美国国内生产总值（GDP）的5.8%。同时，这一机构还调整了2026财年至2035财 年的赤字总额预期，较去年1月的预测增加了1.4万亿美元。 国会预算办公室表示，到2036财年，美国财政预算赤字预计将增至3.1万亿美元，占GDP比例上升至 6.7%。过去50年，赤字占GDP的平均水平为3.8%。 随着巨额赤字持续增长，美国联邦债务也将不断累积。国会预算办公室预计，公众持有美国债务占GDP 的比重预计将从2026财年的101%升至2036财年的120%，超过1946年曾达到106%的历史高位。 国会预算办公室分析，净利息增长是美国财政预算赤字增长的主要原因。另外，美国政府相关政策也推 动赤字增长。例如，政府去年调整移民政策大幅减少了移民净流入，缩减了人口预期，对税收和经济增 长带来影响。（完） 新华社纽约2月11日电（记者刘亚南）美国国会预算办公室11日发布2026财年至2036财年预算和经济展 望报告，大幅上调美国财政预算赤字预测规模。国会预算办公室主任菲利普·斯瓦戈尔当天警告 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CBO forecasts a slight increase in the U.S. budget deficit to $1.853 trillion for FY 2026, indicating a deterioration in fiscal conditions under President Trump's economic policies [1] Group 1: Budget Deficit Projections - The budget deficit for FY 2026 is projected to be approximately 5.8% of GDP, consistent with the 2025 fiscal year deficit of $1.775 trillion [1] - Over the next decade, the average deficit rate is expected to reach 6.1%, rising to 6.7% by FY 2036, significantly above the Treasury Secretary's target of around 3% [1] - The CBO's current deficit forecast for FY 2026 is $100 billion (8%) higher than its January 2025 estimate, with cumulative deficits from 2026 to 2035 increasing by $1.4 trillion (6%) [3] Group 2: Economic Growth and Tax Policies - The CBO's economic growth forecast is notably lower than the Trump administration's, predicting a 2.2% year-over-year GDP growth in Q4 2026, with an average of about 1.8% over the next decade [1] - The anticipated investment tax credits and larger personal tax refunds in 2026 will be offset by larger fiscal deficits and a slowdown in labor force growth due to reduced immigration [2] Group 3: Interest Costs and Debt Levels - Net interest expenditures are projected to more than double from $970 billion in FY 2025 to $2 trillion by FY 2035, driven by rising federal debt [4] - The total public debt is expected to reach $56.152 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 120% by 2036, up from 99% in FY 2025 [5] - The aging baby boomer generation is contributing significantly to rising Medicare and Social Security costs, further exacerbating the deficit [4]

1、美国总统特朗普与以色列总理内塔尼亚胡会晤，表示坚持与伊朗的谈判继续进行，同伊朗达成协议 将是"首选"，此次会晤未达成其他确定性结果。 2、美国国防部已指示第二个航空母舰打击群做好部署 到中东的准备，美军正在为可能对伊朗发动的袭击做准备，部署命令可能在数小时内下达。 3、美国能 源部长赖特将访问委内瑞拉，期间将直接与委内瑞拉临时领导层接触，并访问部分 油田。 4、美国1月 非农就业人数增加13万人，远 超市场预期，失业率降至4.3%，美国财长贝森特表示非农就业数据超过 预期。 5、美联储理事米兰表示，如果获得提名，乐意继续留在美联储。 6、Meta宣布在印第安纳州黎 巴嫩市投资超100亿美元建设新的1吉瓦 数据中心项目，将支持4000多个 建筑岗位和300个运营岗位。 Meta同时将价值270亿美元的Hyperion数据中心项目剥离出表，审计机构安永将该财务安排列为关键审 计事项。 7、美国国会预算办公室警告，美国正走在不可持续的财政道路上，将未来十年的赤字预测上 调1.4万亿美元，特朗普2025年税法预计使赤字增加4.7万亿美元，移民执法行动增加5000亿美元成本， 关税带来的额外收入预计减少3万亿美元赤 ...

智通财经APP获悉，根据美国财政部周三披露的数据，1月份联邦政府支出比收入高出约300亿美元，明 显低于2025年1月的820亿美元赤字。与此同时，去年12月、11月和10月的财政缺口也较上年同期分别收 窄11%、6%和29%。上述数据均已剔除因节假日或周末导致的收付时间差异影响。 美国财政部最新数据显示，在关税收入增加以及教育、环保等领域支出大幅削减的共同作用下，美国联 邦政府财政收支缺口已连续第四个月收窄。 在具体项目上，多项联邦机构预算出现明显压缩。以消费者金融保护局为例，该机构负责打击非法催债 等侵害消费者权益的行为。在特朗普政府执政下，该机构本财年前四个月的总支出降至1.6亿美元，而 2025财年同期高达22.8亿美元，主要源于人员规模和执法活动的缩减。 教育领域支出也显著下降。美国财政部一名高级官员表示，由于拨付给基础和中等教育办公室的资金减 少，今年教育相关支出同比下降19%。与此同时，环保领域同样遭遇削减，环保署本财年至今的总支出 约为57.2亿美元，远低于去年同期的260亿美元。 从整体趋势看，支出增速放缓是赤字改善的重要原因。本财年自去年10月开始，截至目前，美国政府收 入同比增长约12% ...

美国政府 1 月财政赤字较去年同期有所收窄，同时关税收入激增，这也凸显出外界期待已久的最高法院 裁决对联邦财政健康的关键影响。 当月海关关税收入达 300 亿美元，本财年至今累计 1240 亿美元，较 2025 年同期增长 304%。 美国总统特朗普于 2025 年 4 月首次开征关税，对所有进入美国的商品和服务全面征收，并针对多个国 家推出所谓 "对等关税"。此后，白宫与贸易伙伴持续谈判，部分激进关税有所松动，但在相关议题上 仍态度强硬。 去年 11 月，最高法院就特朗普关税合法性的相关诉讼举行了口头辩论，原定于今年 1 月作出裁决。目 前最高法院尚未宣判，白宫方面担忧，若裁决结果不利，美国可能需要退还迄今征收的全部关税。 关税收入有效缓解了预算赤字增速。 美国财政部报告显示，本财年第四个月（1 月），财政赤字约 950 亿美元，同比减少约 26%。 未经日历调整的数据显示，本财年至今联邦财政赤字为 6970 亿美元，较 2025 财年同期下降 17%；经 日历调整后，赤字降幅为 21%。 规模达 38.6 万亿美元的美国债务利息，仍是国家财政的沉重负担。1 月净利息支出 760 亿美元，仅次于 医疗保险、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Treasury futures prices generally rose, and the 10-year treasury bond active bond yield declined to 1.795%. The central bank's open market reverse repurchase had a net injection of 38 billion yuan, and the short - end Shibor varieties mostly rose, but the overnight interest rate was below 1.3%. The central bank continued to expand the scale of open - market treasury bond trading operations, and the capital market remained loose before the Spring Festival. - After three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts, the Fed paused. The market expects the new - nominated Fed chairman's monetary policy to be a unique combination of "interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction". The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3, the highest in six months, and US Treasury yields rebounded. - In January, the three major manufacturing PMIs showed a seasonal decline. In December, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by the decline in real estate development investment. The real estate market is still in adjustment. - The Ministry of Finance said that in 2026, the fiscal deficit and total expenditure will remain at a necessary level. The central bank pointed out that in 2026, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The market capital is loose, and treasury futures prices continue to stabilize. It is recommended to operate cautiously before the festival [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury futures generally rose. For example, the T2603 contract rose 0.06%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of TS2603 decreased by 3,008, while that of TS2606 increased by 4,514 [2]. - **Arbitrage**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury futures contracts was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 7bp, DR007 interest rate rose 4.61bp, and GC007 interest rate rose 3.7bp [2]. - **China's Key - term Treasury Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield declined 0.46bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 34.38bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Yields**: The US 10Y Treasury yield remained unchanged, the German 10Y Treasury yield rose 3bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury yield rose 5.3bp. The internal - external yield spreads also changed accordingly [2]. Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: On February 9, the central bank carried out 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38 billion yuan [3]. - **Policy Adjustments**: The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges optimized a package of refinancing measures, focusing on high - quality listed companies and the science and technology innovation field. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments extended the tax - preferential policy for returned cross - border e - commerce export goods for two years until the end of 2027 [3]. - **Economic Data and Expectations**: The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3. The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, and the market expects about 70,000 new jobs in the January non - farm payroll report [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures in the macro and finance sector is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Friday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated upwards throughout the day, with the 30-year variety showing stronger performance. The 1-year inflation expectation in the US dropped from 4% to a 13-month low of 3.5%. The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, falling back below the boom-bust line. The bond futures may fluctuate in the short term, and trading investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main contracts of bond futures opened higher across the board and fluctuated upwards throughout the day. The 30-year bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.42%, the 10-year T2603 rose 0.08%, the 5-year TF2603 rose 0.03%, and the 2-year TS2603 rose 0.02%. The Wind All A index opened lower, rose in the morning session, and slightly declined in the afternoon, closing down 0.19% from the previous trading day, forming a small Yang line with an upper shadow, with a trading volume of 2.16 trillion yuan, a slight contraction compared to the previous trading day's 2.19 trillion yuan [1][2] Important Information - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 31.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations and 300 billion yuan of 14-day reverse repurchase operations. With 477.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 146 billion yuan. - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interbank funding market rate remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, and that of DR007 was 1.48%. - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of interbank government bonds declined compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2-year government bond dropped 0.37 BP to 1.36%, the 5-year dropped 1.34 BP to 1.56%, the 10-year dropped 0.67 BP to 1.81%, and the 30-year dropped 2.00 BP to 2.25%. - US policy: The US President signed an executive order to impose tariffs on countries trading with Iran, but no new tariffs have been added for now. The US and Iran held "very good talks," and the US will negotiate with Iran again next week. - US inflation expectation: The 1-year inflation expectation in the US dropped from 4% to a 13-month low of 3.5% [1] Market Logic - In January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, falling back below the boom - bust line, with the new order index at 49.2%, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand. The business activity index of the construction industry in January was 48.8%, and that of the service industry was 49.5%, remaining below the boom - bust line for the third consecutive month. The Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. The central bank governor said that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [1][2] Trading Strategy - Trading investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 责任编辑：栎树 根据隔夜指数掉期显示，美联储将在6月前下调基准利率任期结束仅一个月后），并在今年总计进行两 到三次25个基点的降息。投资者正猜测，特朗普总统提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什尽管有着鹰派名 声，但仍会倾向于更低的利率。西太平洋银行金融市场策略主管Martin Whetton表示："尽管曲线出现了 相当程度的平行移动，但疲软的就业信息给前端收益率带来了更多的下行风险。但由于美国财政部借款 咨询委员会本周早些时候的评论暗示，供应增加的时间点可能早于预期的11月，曲线因此变得更加陡 峭。" 2月6日，由于降息以及对持续通胀和财政赤字的担忧，美国国债收益率曲线正处于四年多来的最陡峭水 平附近。10年期国债相对于2年期国债的额外收益率在周四扩大至高达73.7个基点，仅略低于4月份触及 的73.8个基点的峰值，而该峰值是2022年1月以来的最高水平。周四利差扩大，原因是美国就业市场疲 软的迹象促使交易员增加了对美联储今年放宽货币政策的押注。 ...

为了稳经济，中国首次在2025年实施更加积极财政政策，广义财政支出规模首次突破40万亿元。 根据财政部数据，2025年广义财政（全国一般公共预算和全国政府性基金预算）支出约为40.03万亿元，同比增长3.7%；广义财政收入约为27.38万 亿元，同比下降约2.9%；广义财政支出超过收入约12.65万亿元，同比增长21.3%。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉第一财经，去年面对收入端多重压力，财政政策通过提高赤字率与扩大债务规模，实施超常规逆周期调节，保持必要 支出强度，有力发挥了宏观政策的支撑作用，推动全年经济平稳运行。 2026.02. 05 本文字数：2644，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 去年底全国财政工作会议提出，今年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，包括扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度等，以推动今年经济实现质的有效提升 和量的合理增长。 罗志恒认为，2026年财政政策预计在现有基础上进一步加力提效，通过提升赤字规模、优化支出结构、创新政策工具等，以更强的政策力度推动经济稳 中向好并切实改善民生。 财政支出为何能保持力度 去年广义财政支出规模创新高，支出增速与名义经济增速相近，折射了财政支 ...