Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that France's sovereign credit rating has been downgraded by two agencies in one week, reflecting severe consequences of political and economic instability [1][2] - The recent political turmoil includes the collapse of Prime Minister Borne's government due to failed confidence votes on budget deficit reduction measures, leading to the appointment of a new Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu, without stabilizing the political situation [1][2] - Morningstar DBRS indicates that the political environment and increasing government instability hinder the effectiveness of France's fiscal policy setting, raising execution risks for achieving fiscal targets in the coming years [1][2] Group 2 - Fitch downgraded France's sovereign credit rating from "AA-" to "A+" due to political divisions obstructing necessary reforms, which negatively impacts public finances and is expected to worsen public debt from 113.9% of GDP in 2025 to 121% by 2027 [2] - Political and fiscal turmoil has led to asset sell-offs in France, increasing borrowing costs relative to other European countries, with bond premiums nearly doubling since Macron's election call [2] - Despite exceeding growth expectations in the first half of the year, uncertainty is projected to lead to a more sluggish economy, as businesses and households hesitate on investment and consumption [2][3] Group 3 - Lecornu has not yet clarified how to negotiate with opposition lawmakers demanding tax increases and slower deficit reduction, with the primary task being to form a new government in a divided parliament [2][3] - Morningstar DBRS believes Lecornu's measures may be relatively weak, as previous proposals for significant tax increases and budget cuts were rejected by opposition votes [3] - The outlook for France's rating has been adjusted from "negative" to "stable," indicating some advantages as the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, but warns of potential further downgrades if structural fiscal imbalances and debt ratios continue to rise [3]

48:47，一次惊心动魄的投票，揭开了特朗普351亿美元噩梦的序幕 这场扣人心弦的投票大战，发生在9月15日晚间，场面紧张得如同战场倒计时。几乎完全按照党派界限，这次投票成为了政治博弈的焦点。特朗普本以为能 借由安插亲信掌控美联储，从而推动大幅降息，但事与愿违，他撞上了一堵他未曾预料到的坚固墙壁。 美联储博弈：一场勉强得来的"胜利" 48票对47票，这令人窒息的数字仅仅让斯蒂芬·米兰得以"挤"进美联储的行列。这次投票本身就如同一颗政治地雷，充满了不确定性。特朗普原本的算盘 是，米兰能够成功推动美联储将基准利率大幅下调50个基点。然而，即便米兰最终在美联储的会议上投下反对票，也无法改变仅降息25个基点的最终决定。 这微弱的降息幅度，与特朗普的期望相去甚远，也暗示着他对美联储政策的实际影响力，远没有他设想的那么强大。 经济现实：冰冷的数字敲响警钟 美国经济正面临的，并非普通的挑战，而是可能致命的"心脏病发作"。桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧一语中的地指出，美国今年的总支出高达7万亿美元，然而 收入却仅有5万亿美元。这意味着，国家超支了惊人的40%，需要借贷2万亿美元来填补财政赤字，同时还要承担1万亿美元的巨额偿债利息。 ...

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is on the brink of a potential recession, characterized by a widening fiscal deficit, soaring public debt, and increasing financialization, creating a "perfect storm" scenario [1][2] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a federal budget deficit of $1.9 trillion for FY 2025, which is 6.2% of GDP, significantly higher than the historical average of 3.8% over the past 50 years [2] - The federal spending as a percentage of GDP has risen from 12% to 23.3% over the past 70 years, with projections indicating it could reach 24.4% by 2035, driven primarily by social security, Medicare, and net interest expenditures [2] Group 2: Structural Weaknesses - The structural issues in U.S. fiscal health are not cyclical but deep-rooted, with federal revenues stagnating between 15% and 17% of GDP while expenditures continue to rise [2] - The anticipated revenue for FY 2024 is $5.2 trillion against expenditures of $7 trillion, leading to a deficit of $1.8 trillion, highlighting a significant structural imbalance [2] Group 3: Financialization and Market Dependency - The increasing reliance on capital gains tax as a revenue source ties government finances closely to stock market performance, with past crises leading to significant drops in tax revenue [3] - The over-dependence on financial markets, coupled with a growing current account deficit and an overvalued dollar, creates a unique risk environment [3] Group 4: Recession Dynamics - In the event of a recession, tax revenues could decline by 15%, reducing expected revenues for 2025 from $4.92 trillion to $4.2 trillion, a loss of approximately $720 billion [4] - Government spending is expected to increase by 29% during a recession, potentially raising expenditures from $6.7 trillion to $8.7 trillion, leading to a projected deficit surge from $2 trillion to $4.5 trillion, or 15.5% of GDP [4] Group 5: Labor Market and Social Pressure - A severe recession could push the unemployment rate from 4.3% to 6%, decreasing personal income tax revenues and increasing social security expenditures [5] - The government's immigration policies may further reduce labor supply, increasing wages and prices while weakening consumer purchasing power, leading to stagflation risks [5] Group 6: Debt Crisis and Market Confidence - Public debt as a percentage of GDP has escalated from 60% in 2007 to an estimated 98% in 2024, with projections suggesting it could reach 535% by the end of the century [6] - The combination of expanding deficits, shrinking GDP, and increased debt issuance creates a "debt vicious cycle," where rising debt leads to higher interest rates, further exacerbating the deficit [7] Group 7: Policy Challenges - The current policy mix may provide short-term relief but could exacerbate structural risks in the long run, with tariffs increasing import prices and inflationary pressures [8] - Immigration policy changes could reduce labor supply, negatively impacting GDP growth, while fiscal policies continue to struggle with the dilemma of increasing revenue versus cutting spending [8] Group 8: Strategic Recommendations - A multi-layered, systemic response strategy is essential, including building emergency reserves and diversifying investments to enhance financial resilience [9] - Policymakers need to balance short-term stimulus with long-term sustainability, focusing on high-return investments rather than merely expanding expenditures [9]

（原标题：肯政府2025/26财年融资计划） 《肯尼亚时报》9月16日报道，肯财政部预计，政府2025/26财年需筹措1.55万 亿肯先令（下同）以维持运营和履行偿债义务，这笔资金相当于GDP的8%， 其中9010亿用于弥补财政赤字，6463亿用于偿还到期的内外债务。用于补充财 政赤字的资金，计划2482亿通过外部借款解决，约占28%；6528亿通过内部融 资解决，约占72%。 ...

作者：刘诗瑶 从业资格证号：F3041949 交易咨询证号：Z0019385 邮箱：liushiyao@zjtfqh.com 审核：李文涛 交易咨询证号：Z0015640 我公司依法已获取期货交易咨询业务资格 ◼ 经历长达四个月的盘整后，黄金终于再次突破上涨，年内涨幅已接近40%。随着2025年9月、10月和12月连续降息逐渐成为基准情形，叠加对 美联储独立性丧失以及美元信用体系的不信任的宏观对冲，我们仍然相信金价还有进一步上涨的空间。 ◼ "大美丽法案"落地、关税收入暴增以及长端国债增发计划推迟等举措使得美国的财政前景似乎有所改善，但由于财政支出存在刚性约束， 即便疫情这类特殊危机阶段已过，6%的赤字率仍成为一种"新常态"。这一深层财政背景，正是黄金价格获得支撑的根本逻辑。 ◼ 与此同时，美联储独立性的削弱也成为推升黄金的另一重要动力。尽管FOMC的人员架构未发生实质性变动，但政治力量对货币政策的干预明 显加强，进一步动摇了市场对传统政策框架的信心。 ◼ 二季度以来，全球央行购金量有所减少，但我们预计各国央行——尤其是俄罗斯、土耳其和中国——继续推进储备资产分散化的动机仍将延 续。在减持美债的同时增持黄金， ...

新华财经北京9月19日电美国财政部18日公布2025年7月国际资本流动报告（TIC）显示，7月海外投资者继续增持美债，持仓规模环比增加319亿美 元，至9.16万亿美元，连续五个月超过9万亿美元。前十大"债主"中，日本和英国均连续增持美债，其中英国连续两个月增持超过400亿美元。加拿 大和中国大陆减持规模居前，分别为571亿美元和257亿美元。 排名变动较大的加拿大则从6月的第五位直降至第八位，原因在于加拿大7月大举减持571亿美元美债。最近几月，加拿大的美债持仓变化较为剧 烈，先在4月采取了激烈的抛售行动，卖出规模达578亿美元，随后又在5月激买617亿美元，6月再度净买入美债84亿美元，并将持仓升至4385亿美 元的历史高位。 回顾7月美债市场，对债务规模和关税影响的担忧，令美债收益率整体上行，10年期美债收益率环比上涨13BP，超长期限美债收益率月中再次站上 5%。美联储7月议息会议决定维持利率不变且表态偏鹰，导致后续降息预期不振，影响了对美债的需求。 7月4日，美国总统特朗普将"大而美"税收与支出法案正式签署成法。该法案包括的减税、削减医疗保险和营养补助项目支出、增加军事和边境安 全支出等内容预计将对 ...

对里夫斯而言，这些数据无疑令人沮丧。她在首次公布预算案时就已引发商界不满，而外界预计，她将 在11月26日的预算案中宣布新增数十亿美元的增税计划。但此举给经济和公共财政带来风险：增税可能 抑制经济增长，进而影响里夫斯迫切需要的税收收入。 目前，英国政府借贷成本攀升、一系列政策出现"180度大转弯"，再加上预算责任办公室预计将下调生 产力预期，多重因素可能导致里夫斯无法实现自己设定的财政目标——即在2029-30财年前实现财政收 入覆盖日常支出。彭博经济研究测算，填补这一缺口需350亿英镑资金。 智通财经APP获悉，英国8月政府借贷规模高于预期，这给财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯(Rachel Reeves)带来 打击，眼下她正为秋季颇具挑战的预算案做准备。英国国家统计局(Office for National Statistics)周五公 布，8月预算赤字达180亿英镑(约合244亿美元)。这一缺口远超英国预算责任办公室(Office for Budget Responsibility)预测的125亿英镑，同时创下五年来同期最高借贷纪录。 至此，英国政府本财年开局五个月的累计赤字已达838亿英镑，较预算责任办公室的预 ...

（原标题：研究报告分析智利政府今年将再次无法实现财政目标，结构性赤字达GDP的2.5%） 智利《三点钟报》9月17日报道，智利政府正面临严峻的财政挑战，2025年极有可 能无法实现其既定的财政目标（结构性赤字占GDP的1.6%）。圣塞巴斯蒂安大学 （USS）分析报告预测，实际赤字率可能高达2.5%，远高于政府自己调整后的预期 （-1.8%），凸显了收入不足和支出压力并存的双重困境。报告指出，截至7月，智利财 政总收入达425.47亿美元，较去年同期实际增长6.3%，累计收入占年度预测值的 55.9%，低于2016-2024年间同期累计收入占全年收入平均比例57.8%。截至7月，中央政 府累计支出达472.76亿美元，较去年同期增长3.3%。 ...

据泰媒报道，近日，泰财政部近日公布的数据显示，2025财年前10个月（2024年10月至2025年7月）， 政府净财政收入累计2.25万亿泰铢，同比增长1.8%，但仍低于原定目标约400亿泰铢。财政部指出，收 入未达标的主因是关键税收下降，特别是汽车税受到电动车（EV）政策影响，实际缴税数量少于预 期；进口增值税与企业所得税也低于目标，反映免税区优惠使用增加及经济形势变化。截至2025年7月 底，政府累计支出3.16万亿泰铢，为维持流动性与政策推进，举债8278亿泰铢弥补赤字，国库余额为 4057亿泰铢。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Spanish central bank has released an optimistic economic forecast, indicating steady growth and improvements in fiscal conditions, with adjustments made to GDP and inflation predictions for the coming years [1]. Economic Growth - The Spanish economy is expected to grow by 0.6% to 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, reflecting a robust expansion trend [1]. - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 2.4% to 2.6% [1]. - The growth predictions for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 1.8% and 1.7%, respectively [1]. Inflation - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased to 2.5%, up from the previous estimate of 2.4% [1]. - This forecasted inflation rate is still lower than the actual inflation level of 2.9% in 2024, indicating a gradual easing of overall inflationary pressures [1]. Fiscal Conditions - The forecast for the government budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for 2025 has been revised down from 2.8% to 2.5%, suggesting improved fiscal discipline and a more stable fiscal situation [1]. Debt Levels - The government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach 100.7% by the end of 2025, followed by a decline to 100.4% in 2026 and further down to 100% by the end of 2027 [1]. - This trajectory indicates that the government is making progress in controlling the scale of public debt [1].