金属狂欢暂停，但舞曲未终。在这个"中场休息"阶段，盲目追高黄金可能面临数月的震荡折磨。相反，盯着制造业周期的复苏信号，在技术支撑位布局 基本金属，或许是捕捉下一轮上涨浪潮的最佳策略。 在经历了数月的单边上扬与狂热追逐后，全球金属市场似乎撞上了"天花板"。面对近期价格的剧烈波动，华尔街顶级投行摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）在2 月5日发布的技术策略报告中发出明确信号：金、银、铜等主要金属品种在未来几周都将进入"盘整期"。 然而，这并非牛市的终结。在摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter看来，当前的调整是长期上涨趋势中的必要休整。 Hunter表示，技术图表显示，黄金价格在经历了抛物线式的上涨后，动能已出现明显的衰竭迹象。他预测，金价将在未来数周甚至数月内形成一个宽幅 震荡的"持有模式"（Holding pattern）。在此期间，5000美元关口及5100-5150美元区域将构成沉重的阻力，限制金价的短期反弹空间。 尽管短期面临技术性回调，但支撑黄金牛市的核心逻辑——"货币贬值"（Debasement）主题依然完好。报告特别指出，美元指数（DXY）持续在100关 口下方运行，这是一个关键的长 ...

在经历了数月的单边上扬与狂热追逐后，全球金属市场似乎撞上了"天花板"。面对近期价格的剧烈波动，华尔街顶级投行摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）在2月5日发布的技术策略报告中发出明确信号：金、银、铜等主要金属品种在未来几周都将进入"盘整期"。 然而，这并非牛市的终结。在摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter看来，当前的调整是长期上涨趋势中的必要休整。 他表示，对于精明的交易者而言，关键的博弈点在于"分化"：相比于黄金典型的"冲高回落"形态，基本金属（尤其是铜）得益于全球制造业周期 的支撑，其基本面逻辑更为坚实，预计将在二季度先于黄金开启反弹。 黄金：从"抛物线"到"宽幅震荡" "我们认为近期金价的走势，是典型的短期冲高回落反转，而非长期涨势的终结阶段。"摩根大通技术策略师Jason Hunter在报告中写道。 Hunter表示，技术图表显示，黄金价格在经历了抛物线式的上涨后，动能已出现明显的衰竭迹象。他预测，金价将在未来数周甚至数月内形成一 个宽幅震荡的"持有模式"（Holding pattern）。在此期间，5000美元关口及5100-5150美元区域将构成沉重的阻力，限制金价的短期反弹空间。 ...

Group 1 - Nvidia's stock surged nearly 8%, increasing its market value by $328.8 billion (approximately 228.15 billion RMB), driven by a remarkable demand for artificial intelligence, as stated by CEO Jensen Huang [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 5.7%, with notable gains in companies such as Broadcom (over 7% increase), and AMD and Nvidia both seeing increases of over 8% [1] - Chinese assets experienced significant growth, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 3.71%, and major Chinese stocks like NIO and Li Auto increasing by over 6% [2] Group 2 - The COMEX gold futures rose by 2.03% to $4,988.6 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 1.06% to $77.525 per ounce, indicating a bullish trend in precious metals [4] - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact, supported by a weak dollar environment, with expected trading ranges between $4,264 to $4,381 per ounce for support and $5,100 to $5,150 per ounce for resistance [6] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. showed a slight increase to 57.3 in February, although it remains low compared to historical levels, reflecting ongoing concerns about high prices and rising unemployment risks [9]

当地时间2月6日，美股三大指数集体收涨，道指上涨1206.95点，涨幅2.47%，站上50000点创收盘新高，纳指涨2.18%，标普500指数涨1.97%。 英伟达大涨近8% 中国资产大爆发 费城半导体指数大涨5.7%，博通涨超7%，特斯拉涨超3%，亚马逊跌超5%，谷歌跌超2%。 英伟达涨近8%，市值增加3288亿美元(约合人民币22815亿元)。英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋表示，人工智能的需求"高得惊人"。Anthropic和OpenAI都正在盈 利；大规模人工智能资本支出合理且必要；人工智能建设需要7到8年时间。 | +77 018.981 AC-FU . | | --- | | 04:59 185.410 34 | | 04:59 185.430 500 | | 04:59 185.430 1069 | | 04:59 185.450 2624 | | 04:59 185.435 10.29万 156.760 -8.80% | | 04:59 185.408 7.95万 22:30 05:00 | | 分时量▼ (2)量:24283460 现手:196 额:4503亿 04:59 185.330 5.18万 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent volatility in precious metals reflects consolidation after a rally rather than a halt in gold's upward trend [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices has been characterized by a short squeeze, leading to a rapid increase in prices [1] - Historical trends indicate that after a sharp rise in volatility, markets typically require time to digest profit-taking before entering a consolidation phase, which may allow for further upward movement [1] - Gold prices may remain range-bound in the short term but still possess the potential to reach new highs [1] Group 2: Risk Appetite and Monetary Policy - The recent pullback and subsequent rebound in gold prices provide important insights into overall market risk appetite [1] - Market adjustments related to speculation about Kevin Warsh potentially becoming the Federal Reserve Chair highlight investors' strong expectations for continued monetary policy easing [1] - Any signals interpreted as a tightening of financial conditions could amplify market sensitivity and trigger significant volatility in risk assets [1] Group 3: Structural Changes in Gold's Role - In a macro environment characterized by prolonged high interest rates, the traditional inverse relationship between gold and real interest rates has weakened [2] - Gold prices are increasingly correlated with rising sovereign debt, currency debasement, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty [2] - Central bank demand for gold has become a significant structural driver supporting gold prices, with a notable increase in demand as more countries actively diversify their foreign exchange reserves [2] - While concentrated holdings in any asset can pose risks, the core factors supporting gold demand remain unchanged unless there is a clear and sustained tightening of the global financial environment [2]

转自：新华财经 •宝城期货：黄金市场进入一个"长期叙事未改，但短期估值承压"的复杂博弈阶段 •瑞达期货：贵金属市场或重回宏观和基本面主导的定价框架 •五矿期货：贵金属延续震荡修复行情 五矿期货表示，当前贵金属市场处于技术性超跌后的空头回补与头寸重建，就近两天回调幅度来看目前 投资者在谨慎试探市场上行阻力位。由于1月非农就业报告的延期发布，ADP数据大幅不及预期无疑将 强化对美国经济放缓的判断，叠加美联储当前票委的立场占比或将进一步推动市场对于未来降息节奏加 快的预期。但另一方面，教育医疗等刚需行业的稳定表现对经济形成支撑，加之ISM非制造业PMI也未 出现显著恶化，表明美国经济仍具备一定韧性，美联储的降息幅度或仍将保持相对谨慎。贵金属延续震 荡修复行情，在空头回补过程中市场风格偏谨慎。 彭博经济（Bloomberg Economics）高级市场策略师迈克·麦克格隆（Mike McGlone）在其最新的贵金属 报告中表示，虽然他不排除金价涨至每盎司6000美元的可能性，但更有可能的是，金价将测试每盎司 4000美元的支撑位。麦克格隆解释称，1月份金银价格的抛物线式上涨，不仅使金价进入明显超买区 域，而且金价的涨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The gold market has entered a complex game stage of "unchanged long - term narrative but short - term valuation under pressure". The long - term core logic driving gold remains strong, but short - term price has incorporated a lot of optimistic expectations [3]. - The copper market has entered a new stage of "policy setting the tone and industry determining the amplitude". China's strict capacity control and resource reserve policies have set a higher valuation bottom and clearer upward risk for global copper prices [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating and slightly stronger; Reference view: on - look [1]. - **Core Logic**: After a short - term emotional sell - off, the gold market rebounded. The core drivers are concerns about the Fed's independence and policy path, and geopolitical tensions. The long - term core logic remains strong, but short - term price may face profit - taking [3]. Copper - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: long - term bullish [1]. - **Core Logic**: After a macro - emotional shock, copper prices rebounded strongly. China's policy of halting new copper smelting capacity and considering copper concentrate as strategic reserves has fundamentally changed the supply expectation and provided long - term support for copper prices [5].

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, asserts that despite recent declines in gold prices, gold remains the safest investment choice [1][3] Group 1: Gold as an Investment - Dalio emphasizes that central banks globally still hold significant amounts of gold, with gold reserves surpassing the euro last year, making it the second-largest reserve asset [1][3] - He believes that if policymakers were to express their views clearly, they would indicate that gold is the safest investment in the current environment [1][3] - Dalio states that the safety of gold does not change daily, highlighting its long-standing role as a hedge against inflation and a substitute for fiat currency [1][3] - He advises investors to consider what percentage of their total investment portfolio should be allocated to gold rather than focusing on whether gold prices will rise or fall [1][3] Group 2: Economic Context and Risks - Recent declines in gold and other metals were attributed to investors reacting to the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair by Trump, leading to adjustments in expectations regarding interest rates and the dollar [1][3] - Economic risks, such as concerns over rising unsustainable U.S. debt levels and potential weakening of the dollar against other fiat currencies, have also impacted gold's attractiveness over the past year [4] - Dalio warns that the U.S. is on the brink of a capital war, with geopolitical tensions causing global investors to hesitate in purchasing U.S. bonds [5] - He describes gold as a diversification tool that performs particularly well during economic downturns, stressing the importance of maintaining a diversified investment portfolio [5]

来源：大象新闻、浙江经视 编辑：林力 责编 ： 高文玉 南京晨报2026-02-04 21:45:45 近段时间，黄金价格不断波动。2月3日上午，黄金期价重回每盎司4900美元上方，金饰价格涨到1542 元/克。在杭州白马珠宝市场，不少市民正选购黄金饰品，咨询价格。一位顾客表示，2016年毕业起就 开始买黄金，那时候金价才两三百。高中政治老师第一课就说了，货币总会贬值，黄金是货币的等价交 换物。 ...

来源：西安晚报 近段时间，黄金价格不断波动。 2月4日，现货黄金重新站上5000美元大关，一度涨超2%。国内金饰价格方面，周生生足金饰品报1600 元/克，较前一日1498元/克涨102元。 | < ω | 匿日美价 | | | (0) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中国大陆金价(每克) | | | 2026-02-04 09:15:00 | | | | 英H | | 换金价 | | | 足金饰品 | | ¥ 1600 | ¥1361 | | | 950铂金饰品 | | ¥ 899 | ¥721 | | | 生生金宝价 | | ¥ 1398 | | | 记者在杭州白马珠宝市场看到，不少市民来此选购黄金饰品，咨询价格。 一位女顾客表示，她2016年毕业起就开始买黄金，那个时候金价才每克两三百元，她看好黄金的长期保 值特性，因为货币长期易贬值，"高中政治老师第一课就说了，黄金具备稀缺性，可对冲货币贬值风 险"。 专家：黄金连续多日的暴跌 2月3日下午，上海黄金交易所发布《关于调整黄金部分合约保证金水平和涨跌停板的通知》，根据《上 海黄金交易所风险控制管理办法》的有关规定， ...