Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights substantial progress in China-US trade negotiations, leading to a market uptrend as both countries significantly reduced previously imposed tariffs [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a rebound, with the Shanghai 50 Index reaching a new high for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index lagged behind due to resistance from the 60-day moving average [1] - Market activity indicated a daily average trading volume of around 1.2 trillion yuan, which decreased compared to the previous week, particularly in the latter half of the week [1] Group 2 - The market's focus this week was primarily on the financial and consumer sectors, with large-cap blue chips leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index found support at the midline of its weekly range and is undergoing a rebound from oversold conditions, having filled the downward gap from April 7 [1] - The article suggests that the upward momentum may face increased resistance as the index approaches the first quarter high and the dense trading area from the fourth quarter of the previous year [1]

安如泰山 信守承诺 苯乙烯:超跌反弹 回补缺口 化工视点 2024年我国莽乙烯产能高速扩张之势暂缓,但近5年以来我国苯乙烯产能复合增长率高达17.9%,累积起来 的庞大产能,导致苯乙烯行业供应压力凸现,而下游产能扩张增速不及苯乙烯,导致供需错配,进口量持续奏 缩，以缓解内部供需矛盾，但目前苯乙烯进口蛋缺乏进一步压缩空间。随着上游原油价格和纯苯价格的下跌， 成本端的崩塌成为压垮苯乙烯价格的重要固素。苯乙烯期货主力合约自2024年6月以来一直处于熊市格局当中， 主要压力来自于成本端。随着中美贸易谈判取得重要进展,成本端油价反弹,纯萃价格跟随反弹,市场交授情 错明显改善,萃乙烯价格一改前期颜势,今日苯乙烯期货主力合约涨停收盘,上方近期关注前期造留铁口回补 情况。 一、宏观利好提振,成本端支撑走强 2025年4月,美国政府以"对等关税"为名,对中国商品加征34%至104%的惩罚性关税,全球贸易体系随之 剧烈震荡。4月3日苯乙烯期货主力合约收盘价为7825,4月7日苯乙烯期货主力合约跌停收盘,收强价7374。透 留很大的跳空缺口。尽管近一段时期基本面有所改善,但关税战的影响,导致市场想观情绪蔓延,油价在全球 经济预期低 ...

Group 1 - The external and internal environment has improved, leading to a market rebound as international trade conflicts have not escalated and negotiations with the US have begun [1] - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut to support the real economy, encouraging market sentiment and slightly shifting the focus upward [1] - The market has entered an earnings vacuum period after the annual and quarterly reports have been disclosed, with thematic investments becoming more active [1] Group 2 - The two markets experienced a volatile rebound with increased trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index has continuously risen and filled the gap from April 7 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed a catch-up characteristic but has not yet filled the upper gap, indicating a mixed performance [1] - Market hotspots last week were mainly concentrated in the military and high-end manufacturing sectors, with a general upward trend across various investment styles [1]

Global Market Overview - The report indicates that most global markets are experiencing a rebound from oversold conditions, but this rebound is expected to reach a plateau as negative factors persist, leading to a potential space for future corrections [1][3] - The US stock market continues its rebound, with the TAMAMA Technology Index's P/E ratio at 29.8, approaching a high range, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio has risen to 39.2, nearing 40 [1][11] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has increased to 35.26, exceeding historical averages, suggesting that the US market may face further corrections in the medium term [1][11] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw increases of 2.92%, 3.42%, and 3% respectively over the past week [3][11] - The report highlights that the industrial sector within the S&P 500 had a significant increase of 4.32%, while the energy sector experienced a decline of 0.65% [11] European Market Performance - Major European indices such as the DAX, CAC40, and FTSE 100 have shown substantial rebounds, with the DAX rising by 3.8% [2][8] - The report anticipates that the short-term rebound in European markets will diminish, with potential for increased volatility [1][8] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and related indices have also rebounded, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 2.38% and the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 5.24% [3][24] - The report suggests caution in pursuing high valuations in Hong Kong stocks, recommending a focus on sectors with lower valuations and better fundamentals [1][39] Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are experiencing mixed performance, with indices like the Istanbul ISE100 showing a significant decline of 3.75% [10] - The report notes that emerging markets may continue to face volatility due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties [1][10] Key Economic Data - Japan's unemployment rate for March 2025 was reported at 2.5%, slightly higher than the previous value of 2.4% [40] - The Eurozone's unemployment rate remained stable at 6.2%, while the CPI growth rate for April 2025 was reported at 2.2% [40][42]

首先，上周贸易冲突没有明显升级，超跌反弹进程得以延续。近期，国际贸易冲突没有继续升级， 各国与美国的谈判陆续开始。美国政界对于中美贸易问题的态度也较之前有所缓和。受此影响国际股市 展开超跌反弹，A 股市场亦保持了稳健向上的态势，其中部分贸易冲突受损的行业在上周展开了更明显 的估值修复。往后展望，市场或更关注贸易谈判的进展和国内宏观政策的具体落实和推进。此外，本周 是五一小长假之前的最后三个交易日，也是年报和季报的最后披露期，宜根据最新信息分析各行业的景 气趋势并制定应对策略。 上周，两市小幅反弹，成交大幅萎缩。沪指上半周延续了反弹势头，下半周在 30 天均线处遇阻小 幅回落，周五收盘在五天均线附近，需密切关注其得失。深圳市场表现略强，但反弹未能越过 20 天均 线。量能方面，上周两市日均量能在 11000 亿左右，比上周略有增加，但总体处于年内较低水平。上周 市场热点主要集中在汽车、化工等制造业。投资风格方面，中小盘风格涨幅领先。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于三月中下旬，在 去年四季度的密集成交区间遇到较强技术阻力，开始进入调整。最终在周线的箱体中轨线附近找到支撑 ...

其次，沪指继续反弹，市场热点多元。周一，两市低开后迅速上攻，最终双双红盘报收。两市量能 在 1 万亿元左右，近期成交量仍处于较为低迷的状态。微观结构上，全天个股涨多跌少，涨停股票数量 较多。当天市场热点较为多元，主要集中在贵金属和 TMT 行业。投资风格方面，普涨行情下，中小盘 和科技风格涨幅领先。 从市场运行节奏看，沪指在周线箱体中轨线找到支撑，正在展开超跌反弹。沪指于三月中下旬，在 去年四季度的密集成交区间遇到较强技术阻力，开始进入调整。最终在周线的箱体中轨线附近找到支撑 并展开反弹。目前来看，沪指 4 月 7 日开盘的向下跳空缺口尚未回补，下方 4 月 10 日开盘有一个向上 的跳空缺口，预计市场将在此区间来回拉锯。 风险提示：国际贸易、地缘冲突超出预期；上市公司业绩增速回落超预期；全球经济衰退超预期。 免责声明 首先，国际贸易冲突略有缓和，美元继续回落。近日，国际贸易冲突没有继续升级，各国与美国的 谈判陆续开始，投资者预期略有好转。周一市场短期焦点转移到美元的走势，一方面美元信用因反复无 常的贸易冲突而受损，一方面市场预期美国经济或将下行，美元降息预期有所提升。结果，美元指数出 现了连续下跌，目前已经 ...

Group 1 - The US Department of Commerce has added multiple Chinese entities to the export control "entity list," indicating a shift in the US-China trade war dynamics [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that while tariff rates have been raised, the current situation differs from previous gradual increases, with Chinese goods facing a direct 20% tariff increase, while China has only raised tariffs on US imports by 3.6% [1] - The Asia-Pacific stock market experienced a significant drop, likely in anticipation of negative impacts from the trade tensions, suggesting that market sentiment may stabilize after the upcoming developments [1] Group 2 - The market showed volatility with the ChiNext index leading the decline, as over 4,027 stocks fell, indicating a broad market downturn [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.24 trillion, an increase of 983 billion from the previous trading day, reflecting heightened trading activity despite the market's struggles [3] - The market is currently in a phase of technical rebound after hitting a low near 3,317 points, with expectations for a potential recovery as the earnings reports are released [3] Group 3 - The three major indices experienced fluctuations, with a significant number of stocks declining, suggesting a potential second bottom formation in the market [7] - The market's ability to avoid new lows will be critical in determining future trends, with the need for increased trading volume and profitable sectors to reverse the current bearish sentiment [7] - The upcoming trading day is crucial for assessing the strength of any rebound, with the risk of further declines if active buying does not materialize [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the food and beverage sector [5] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector has shown significant growth, with the CITIC Food and Beverage Index rising by 6.24%, ranking first among CITIC's primary industries, driven by expectations of consumption policy boosts and new birth subsidies [11][12] - Although the reversal point for the food and beverage sector has not yet been confirmed, stable fundamentals, a low base period starting in Q2, and favorable policies are expected to sustain market sentiment and drive valuation recovery [11][12] Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Key Company Updates - **Baijiu**: Luzhou Laojiao's market performance is strong, with inventory continuing to decrease. The company has seen positive feedback in its southwestern market, benefiting from relaxed payment requirements and competitor stockouts, leading to a safe inventory level [11][12] - **Frozen Food**: Anjiu Foods announced a 444.5 million yuan acquisition of 70% of Dingwei Thai, which is expected to enhance synergy in channels, products, and exports. Dingwei Thai's high-end frozen products complement Anjiu's offerings and target premium retail channels [12] - **Dairy Products**: Yili's operations are stable post-holiday, with positive growth in white milk and reduced sales declines in ambient yogurt and dairy beverages. The inventory cycle has improved compared to last year, and promotional pressures have decreased, indicating a favorable competitive environment [13] 2. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining positions in dairy and snack sectors, recommending Yili and Yan Jin Pu Zi as core holdings. It also advises flexible trading in underperforming sectors with potential for recovery, such as Lihai Foods and Shede Liquor [45] - In the baijiu sector, the focus remains on companies with better competitive positioning during the industry downturn, recommending Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [45] 3. Key Data Tracking - As of March 14, 2025, the food and beverage sector's valuation (PE TTM, excluding negative values) is at 22 times, up approximately 7.3% since the beginning of the year. The CITIC Baijiu Index PE is at 21 times, up about 10.4% [14]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced significant volatility during the week of February 24-28, 2025, with all major indices declining, particularly the ChiNext index which fell by 4.87% [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.72%, the Shanghai 50 by 1.61%, the CSI 300 by 2.22%, the CSI 500 by 3.26%, and the CSI 1000 by 2.77% [2] - The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase after a rapid adjustment on February 28, with growth stocks and small-cap stocks likely to remain dominant [2] Valuation Insights - As of February 28, 2025, major indices such as the Shanghai Composite, Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are at a "moderate" valuation level, while the ChiNext index is at a "safe" valuation level [2] - In terms of sector performance, industries like oil and petrochemicals, electricity and utilities, food and beverage, agriculture, non-bank financials, and transportation are also rated at a "safe" valuation level [2] Volatility Analysis - The cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 500 index constituents decreased compared to the previous week, indicating a weakening short-term Alpha environment [3] - Conversely, the cross-sectional volatility of the CSI 1000 index constituents increased, suggesting an improvement in the short-term Alpha environment [3] Fund Flow Tracking - The top five stocks attracting institutional attention this week were Huichuan Technology (480 institutions), Digital政通 (215), Transsion Holdings (194), Juguang Technology (141), and World (136) [4] - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of HKD 749.67 billion during the trading period from February 24 to February 28, 2025, with the Shanghai Stock Connect contributing HKD 413.34 billion and the Shenzhen Stock Connect contributing HKD 336.33 billion [4] - The median return for stock ETFs was -2.68%, with a net outflow of CNY 189.23 billion, while the median return for Hong Kong stock ETFs was -2.85% with a net inflow of HKD 136.43 billion [4]

我给新关注的读者补补课，这个图的竖轴是利率，数字看最右边，横轴是时间，以年为单位。 每一年都有19个点，这19个点代表了美联储的19个成员的投票，他们是美联储理事会成员+联邦储备银行行长们。投票是不记名的，你们看2024年有一个 人投了最低的4-4.25%这一档，但公众并不知道投这一票的人是谁。 点阵图每年更新四次，3、6、9、12月各一次，根据这份点阵图可以看出2024年底的预期利率平均是4.4%，2025年底是3.4%，2026年底是2.9%，更远的长 期利率也差不多是3%左右的水平。 但是注意，这只代表当下的预期，随着每个月的经济数据更新，委员们的态度变化也会很快，事实上现在就比6月份的那一次很不一样。他们主要看两个 数据，通胀率和就业，既要防止通胀失控，又要防止失业攀升，然后就是左右摇摆找平衡。 如诸位所见，美联储最终选择了降息50个基点。 随后美联储对外发布了最新的利率点阵图，如下： 今天a股先跌后涨，终于迎来了久违的中阳，市场放量超过了6000亿，中位数+2.19%，感觉很久没有吃过这样一顿好的。 很难说 和昨晚美联储的降息没 有关系，但现在 怕就怕明天公布的LPR又降息落空， 到时候 少不得一顿 ...