交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2026年1月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 1、基本面：周三，现货商谈稀少，1月在05贴水40~50附近商谈，价格商谈区间在5060~5130。今日主流现货基差在05-46。中性 2、基差：现货5097，05合约基差-13，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.61天，环比减少0.15天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 PTA 每日观点 MEG 每日观点 MEG： 1、基本面：周三，乙二醇价格重心走弱，市场商谈一般。夜盘乙二醇价格震荡整理，场内商谈不多。日内乙二醇盘面震荡下行， 上午商谈较为僵持，午后买气有所回升，日内下周现货 ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/01/05 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 801 2150 2125 2385 2485 2355 2465 250 - 7 20 - 801 2145 2120 2370 2485 2355 2445 248 320 20 15 - 801 2150 2135 2345 2485 2355 2400 251 320 5 15 - 801 2182 2188 2355 2460 2315 2400 256 320 8 -30 - 801 2210 2193 2345 2450 2315 2430 258 - 1 -25 - 日度变化 0 28 5 -10 -10 0 30 2 - -7 5 - 内地见底，港口交易大去库，但需注意到大去库前提是MTO开工高，目前MTO利润一般，压制甲醇高度；委内船月 度预计2-3船，8 -10w月均，关注后续发酵，短期可能仍正常发货，另一边关注油的变化，甲醇现在高度有限是因为 其他下游不行，如果油把其他东 西带起来了可能打开上限。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息 ...

短纤：跟涨上游震荡偏强 20260105 瓶片：跟涨上游震荡偏强 20260105 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 短纤：无期货盘面价格指引，短纤工厂报价大多持稳，今日直纺涤短销售高低分化，截止下午 3:00 附 近，平均产销 57%，部分工厂产销：110%、150%、100%、20%、80%、40%、65%、0%、39%，30%。 瓶片：元旦假日期间成交以刚需补货为主，多集中在 5980-6100 元/吨出厂附近，多为明年一季度订单。 周日期货市场停盘，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多稳，部分工厂未报价。周末聚酯瓶片市场成交清淡。1-2 月订单适 量成交在 5980-6100 元/吨出厂不等，少量略高 6120 元/吨出厂附近，品牌不同价格略有差异。 2026 年 01 月 05 日 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6476 | 6500 | -24 | PF01-02 | ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 邝志鹏 策略摘要 玻璃方面，虽然部分产线已经逐步冷修，但是相较刚需下降速度，减产力度仍显不足。库存压力依旧不 减，且不排除春节期间持续大幅累库情况产生。市场对于春节后的旺季存在预期，持续关注玻璃冷修进 展。纯碱方面，产量虽有回升，但库存持续下降，产销情况良好。但考虑到纯碱后期仍有新增项目投 产，同时浮法玻璃存在冷修增加预期，仍需压制纯碱企业生产利润，避免再度陷入供需失衡局面，关注 下月节前备货情况，持续关注浮法玻璃产线变化和纯碱新投产项目进展。 核心观点 市场分析 玻璃方面，12月玻璃期货主力合约2605呈现震荡下跌走势，截止12月31日，收于1087元/吨，全月下跌 83元/吨，跌幅7.64%。现货方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，12月国内浮法玻璃均价为 1090元/吨，环比下 跌3.45%，价格重心下移，以低价刚需采购为主。 供给方面，据隆众资讯最新数据，12月浮法玻璃产量479.53万吨，环比上涨0.73%，浮法玻璃产能利用 率77.33%，环比下降2%。 玻璃方面：震荡偏弱 纯碱方面：震荡 跨品种：无 需求方面，12月 ...

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日星期一 研究员：李方磊 从业资格：F03104461 交易咨询资格：Z0021311 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 假期前 SR601 合约收盘价 5251 元/吨，日跌幅 0.13%；SR605 合约收盘价 5266 元/ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨，日跌幅 0.17%。 【重要资讯】 1.假期前广西白糖现货成交价为 5293 元/吨，下跌 16 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区 间 5300~5400 元/吨；云南制糖集团新糖报价 5130~5240 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价 区间为 5750~5900 元/吨，部分下调 10 元/吨。 | | | | | 2.根据印度糖和生物能源制造商协会（ISMA）的数据，截至 2025 年 12 月 31 日，印 度 2025/26 榨季糖产量达到 1189.7 万吨，较去年同期的 954 万吨 ...

观点与策略 | 棕榈油：基本面驱动不强，关注原油波动外溢 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | 2 | | 豆粕：假期美豆收跌，连粕或低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：节前政策情绪偏强，节后或震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：维持震荡偏强走势20260105 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：弱势显现 | 11 | | 花生：震荡偏弱 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026年01月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 棕榈油主力 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,584 | -0.85% | | | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,862 | -0.20% | | | | | | 元/吨 | 9,087 | 0.01% ...

2026 年 1 月 5 日 本周热点前瞻 2026-01-05 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 1 月 7 日 16:00，中国人民银行将公布 2025 年 12 月外汇储备和黄金储备。 1 月 8 日 21:30，美国劳工部将公布截至 1 月 3 日当周初请失业金人数。 1 月 9 日 09:30，国家统计局将公布中国 2025 年 12 月 CPI 和 PPI。 1 月 9 日 21:30，美国劳动统计局将公布 2025 年 12 月非农就业报告。 美国总统特朗普或在 2026 年 1 月第一周指定美联储新主席人选。 周六（1 月 3 日），美国总统特朗普称，美方已成功对委内瑞拉实施打击 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - After the holiday (January 5 - 9, 2026), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures contracts are expected to fluctuate. For soybean meal, attention should be paid to US soybean export demand (Chinese purchases, US soybean weekly export sales reports) and South American weather. For soybeans, although the pre - holiday policy sentiment was strong, the external soybean market was weak. It is expected that the domestic market will mainly fluctuate after the pre - holiday rise, and subsequent state reserve situations should be monitored [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price Movements of US and Domestic Soybean Futures - From December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026, US soybean futures prices declined due to limited Chinese purchases, weak US soybean export data, and South American weather pressure. In the week of January 2, the main March 2026 contract of US soybeans fell 2.4%, and the main March 2026 contract of US soybean meal fell 3.74%. - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), domestic soybean meal futures prices first rose and then fell, while soybean futures prices rose strongly. In the week of December 31, the main May 2026 contract of soybean meal (m2605) fell 1.47%, and the main May 2026 contract of soybeans (a2605) rose 2.74% [1]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals - Chinese continued to purchase US soybeans in limited quantities, which had a neutral impact. From December 29 to January 2, 2026, the cumulative sales volume of US soybeans to China and unknown destinations was about 367,000 tons, and to Egypt was 100,000 tons (for delivery in the 2025/26 season). As of the week of December 18, 2025, China's purchases of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season were about 603,000 tons. - As of the week of December 18, 2025, the export shipments of US soybeans for the 2025/26 season were about 85,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 46%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1.401 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 47%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales of US soybeans were about 990,000 tons (about 2.4 million tons the previous week), and the next - market - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were - 480,000 tons (about 2.85 million tons the previous week), with a total of about 985,000 tons (about 2.43 million tons the previous week). The current - crop - year (2025/26) weekly net sales of US soybeans to China were about 620,000 tons (1.38 million tons the previous week), and the cumulative sales were about 603,000 tons. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased week - on - week, which had a negative impact. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for February 2026 delivery increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing margin increased week - on - week. - The soybean planting in Argentina is gradually coming to an end. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the planting progress of soybeans in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was about 82%, compared with about 93% in the same period last year. - According to the weather forecast on January 2, 2026, in the next two weeks (January 3 - 17, 2026), the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be slightly less, and the temperature will be "low first and then high"; the precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina will be less (the precipitation will improve starting from January 8), and the temperature will be low. Although the precipitation in the Argentine产区 was less from late December 2025 to early January 2026, due to the forecast of improved precipitation in mid - and early - January, the market did not trade on the "short - term lack of precipitation" and mainly conducted bearish trading based on the view that "weather problems are not significant" [1]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), the trading volume of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 160,000 tons the previous week. - The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 182,000 tons, compared with about 183,000 tons the previous week. - The basis of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of December 31, the weekly average basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 356 yuan/ton, compared with about 353 yuan/ton the previous week and about 252 yuan/ton in the same period last year. - The inventory of soybean meal increased slightly week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of December 26, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 1.03 million tons, a week - on - week increase of about 3% and a year - on - year increase of about 65% [2]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Spot Market - Before the holiday (December 29 - 31, 2025), soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In some parts of Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybean grains (the mainstream purchase price of clean grains passing through a 4.5 - mesh sieve) was in the range of 4,160 - 4,260 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week; in some parts of Inner China, the purchase price of clean soybean grains was in the range of 4,860 - 5,100 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week; in the sales areas, the sales price of Northeast edible soybeans (the mainstream retail price of medium - grade, packaged, and tower - selected Northeast soybeans) was in the range of 4,580 - 4,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. - The state - reserve soybean auction had good results, but the premium decreased. On December 29, 2025, China Grain Reserves Corporation planned to auction about 190,000 tons of domestic soybeans produced in 2022 through competitive bidding, and the actual transaction volume was about 155,900 tons, with a reserve price of 3,950 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 4,014 yuan/ton, and a premium of 0 - 180 yuan/ton. This was the third state - reserve soybean auction, and the participants were still manufacturers and various trading entities, with a lower premium compared with the previous two auctions. - The trading of soybeans in the sales areas was slow, and attention should be paid to the subsequent restocking demand. Although the overall trading in the sales - area market was slow, as the Spring Festival approached, all sectors of the market had restocking demand, and prices might rise [3].

供需双强支撑价格上涨，关注库存及需求拐点 新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 库存端：月内库存持续降低，各环节库存均出现明显下滑。根据SMM月度库存统计，总库存64560吨，总库存降环 比变化-19674万吨，其中锂盐厂22530吨，下游库存42030吨。月底去库速度有减缓趋势，需关注库存拐点。 12 月氢氧化锂市场价格跟随碳酸锂走势大幅上涨。截止到12月31日国内电池级氢氧化锂市场均价水平在110300元 /吨，工业级氢氧化锂均价水平在103730元/吨。受上游碳酸锂期货价格强势上涨及锂辉石原料成本持续高位的双重 支撑，氢氧化锂生产成本具备刚性支持，市场底部坚实。氢氧化锂产线整体开工负荷偏低，头部锂盐厂产能被长 协订单锁定，加之柔性产线向价差更优的碳酸锂倾斜以及个别装置检修，导致现货市场流通资源持续偏紧状态， 持货商惜售挺价意愿强烈，报价维持高位区间。下游三元材料企业采购以执行长单为主，散单市场保持刚性、小 批量的生产需求支撑，对当前高价货源的接受度有限，尤其在长协谈判周期内，市场观望情绪较浓。本月内氢氧 化锂与碳酸锂价差持续存在，刺激了部分碳化需求及贸易环节的询盘积极性，为市场带来一定增量。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views Nickel - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel showed a strong V - shaped reversal pattern, rising 13.5% for the month and hitting a new high since 2025. Indonesia's plan to cut the nickel ore quota in 2026 by 34% and the possible 2% tax on associated products like cobalt are the core driving forces for the price rebound [2]. - The supply of primary nickel increased steadily in December due to price recovery and capacity ramping up. The consumption in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector was promising. Nickel inventory was still accumulating, and high inventory would suppress the future rebound space of nickel prices [3]. - Currently, the fundamentals show high inventory and oversupply, but with positive policies from Indonesia and nickel's long - term bottom - side oscillation, it is expected to remain strong [4]. Stainless Steel - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel showed a pattern of bottom lifting, passive following, and high - level oscillation, rising 6.15% for the month and approaching the annual high, driven by the strength of Shanghai nickel [4]. - The supply of stainless steel decreased in December 2025, while the demand increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. However, the overall weak demand situation in the traditional off - season has not fundamentally changed. The social inventory of stainless steel showed four consecutive drops [5]. - With some macro - positive factors realized and four - week inventory depletion, but the cold downstream demand in the off - season, the stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, following the trend of Shanghai nickel [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel Sector 1.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel started at 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, dropped to 111,700 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 130,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 13.5% [11]. 1.2 Primary Nickel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the domestic refined nickel production was 31,400 tons, with a year - on - year change of - 0.37% and a month - on - month change of +21.71%. The expected domestic refined nickel production in 2025 was 390,000 tons, a 15% year - on - year increase. Indonesia's expected annual refined nickel production was 80,000 tons, with new projects like Dingxing and Yongheng releasing capacity and Qingmeibang starting production in the fourth quarter [15]. 1.3 Refined Nickel Consumption Situation - In November 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined nickel was 25,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.66%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 348,400 tons, a 37.15% year - on - year increase. The demand in the stainless - steel and new - energy sectors was in a trough, while the alloy sector had good development, and the overall nickel demand remained stable [34][35]. 1.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 31, the SHFE nickel inventory was 45,544 tons, a 11.7% increase from the previous month, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,300 tons, a 0.4% increase, indicating a more relaxed supply pattern and suppressing the future rebound space of nickel prices [37]. Stainless Steel Sector 2.1 Market Review - In December 2025, the main contract of stainless steel started at 12,375 yuan/ton, dropped to 12,290 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and rebounded to break through 13,000 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 6.15% [41]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Supply Situation - In December 2025, the stainless - steel production decreased. The estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2671 million tons, a 6.47% month - on - month decrease and a 5.09% year - on - year decrease. The production schedule for January 2026 was 3.327 million tons, a 1.83% month - on - month increase and a 16.27% year - on - year increase [43]. 2.3 Stainless Steel Consumption Situation - In December 2025, the overall stainless - steel consumption increased slightly due to price - driven market enthusiasm and inventory - building needs. The demand in the downstream pipe - making and profile sectors was affected by the traditional off - season, and the overall weak demand situation had not fundamentally changed [51]. 2.4 Inventory Situation - As of December 25, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel in 89 warehouses in the mainstream market was 1,005,136 tons, a 3.55% week - on - week decrease. The inventory showed four consecutive drops due to factors such as the increase in steel - mill prices and active merchant sales at the end of the month [59]. 2.5 Cost - In December, the prices of high - carbon ferrochrome and high - nickel pig iron continued to rise, and the stainless - steel cost continued to increase. The costs of different processes for smelting 304 cold - rolled stainless steel changed to varying degrees [67].