投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-08-01 事件落地，资⾦拥挤度释放 股指期货：事件落地，资⾦拥挤度释放 股指期权：领⼝策略强化波动率结构 国债期货：市场继续消化政治局会议信息 股指期货方面，周四沪指低开低走，两市放量至1.96万亿元，前期主 线全面回落，仅有科技成长补涨。展望后市，中报季、阅兵前时点值得关 注，仍有事件交易机会，短期靴子落地式资金释放，我们建议看长做短， 配置型投资者继续持有IM多单，回撤反而成为加仓良机。 股指期权方面，尽管昨日升波下跌，但期权市场流动性并无显著提 升，成交量提升10%，而成交金额仅增加2.4%。波动率方面，IO、MO昨日 小幅抬升，但变化逻辑相异，MO的波动率微笑结构反映领口策略的强化， 即认沽波动率升，而认购波动率降；而IO波动率微笑结构相反，或反映市 场短期对成长风格更加谨慎，而对价值风格相对积极。综上，短线仍是双 卖为主，把握波动率回落，中期备兑思路不变。 国债期货方面，昨日国债期货主力合约继续上涨。昨日，国债期货高 开后震荡上行，市场继续消化政治局会议信息，债市情绪延续好转； 另外，7月PMI数据公布，制 ...

近日，由海尔生物医疗旗下青岛鸿鹄航空科技有限公司主导及深度参与编制的《航空温控集装箱技术规 范》《温控货物公共航空运输保障操作规范》《航空耐火集装箱技术规范》三项行业标准正式发布，系 统性填补了中国航空温控集装箱及运输保障标准的空白。其中，《航空温控集装箱技术规范》是行业内 首个聚焦主动温控集装箱性能的专项标准。 航空温控集装箱作为高端冷链物流的"核心载体"，其技术与标准曾长期被欧美垄断。青岛鸿鹄牵头编制 的《航空温控集装箱技术规范》首次系统明确了主动/被动温控集装箱的技术要求、测试方法及核心性 能指标(如精准控温要求、续航、电磁兼容等)。此举将加速推动国内航空温控设备实现自主可控，打破 进口依赖。行业预计，随着标准的普及，设备采购与租赁成本有望降低30%以上，为国内生物医药、跨 境电商等战略新兴产业注入强劲动能。 全链条规范升级，筑牢冷链物流"安全防线" 青岛鸿鹄参与编制的《温控货物公共航空运输保障操作规范》，直击冷链物流"断链痛点"，构建了覆 盖"仓储-运输-装卸"全链条的操作规范体系。该标准确保疫苗、生物制剂、原料药等温敏货物实现"温度 可追溯、风险可防控"，极大提升运输品质与可靠性，显著增强我国航空温 ...

七月行情落下帷幕！ 牛了一整个月的大盘，今日出现调整，沪指在3600点下方调整，全市场超4200只个股下跌，几家欢喜几家忧。 从全球主要市场的表现来看，阿根廷MERV 指数7月累涨15.64%，牛冠全球；泰国SET指数、越南指数紧随其后，本月分别累涨14.19%、14.09%；另一方 面，俄罗斯MOEX、印度NIFTY50、墨西哥MXX则为表现最弱的三个市场。 A股在3600点来回拉扯 7月，A股市场呈现出震荡攀升的态势，三大指数月线均收涨。其中，创业板指本月累计涨超8%，沪指在3600点处反复拉锯，本月累涨3.74%，深证成指累 涨5.2%，而北证50却跌1.68%。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 | 月初至今涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | 3573.21 | -42.51 | -1.18% | 3.74% | | 399001 | 深证成指 | 11009.77 | -193.26 | -1.73% | 5.20% | | 399006 | 创业板指 | 2328.31 | -39.37 | ...

Group 1: ETF Performance - The Sci-Tech Chip ETF has seen a recent trading volume turnover of 2.5%, with a transaction value of 830 million yuan [3] - As of July 30, the ETF's latest scale reached 33.012 billion yuan, marking a one-year high and ranking first among comparable funds [3] - The ETF experienced a significant increase in shares, with a growth of 19.8 million shares over the past week, also ranking first among comparable funds [3] Group 2: Fund Inflows and Leverage - The latest net inflow for the Sci-Tech Chip ETF is 402 million yuan, with three out of the last five trading days showing net inflows totaling 442 million yuan [3] - The ETF has seen a net financing purchase amount of 6.7277 million yuan this month, with the latest financing balance reaching 1.636 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Historical Returns - As of July 30, the ETF's net value has increased by 69.83% over the past year, ranking first among comparable funds and placing in the top 4.96% of index equity funds [4] - The ETF's highest monthly return since inception was 25.18%, with the longest consecutive monthly gains being four months and a maximum increase of 36.01% [4] - The average return for months with gains is 8.40%, and the historical two-year holding profit probability is 98.51% [4] Group 4: Industry Outlook - The storage chip industry is expected to enter a price increase cycle, with average month-on-month price changes for DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 being +14.05%, +33.38%, and +2.75% respectively [4] - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a comprehensive rebound, driven by macro policy cycles, inventory cycles, and AI innovation cycles [5] - North American demand for computing power is rising sharply, boosting the growth of the switch and server supply chain, with TSMC raising its annual revenue growth forecast from 25% to 30% [5] Group 5: Key Stocks in the Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the Sci-Tech Chip Index include SMIC, Haiguang Information, Cambricon, and others, collectively accounting for 57.76% of the index [5] - The performance of individual stocks varies, with notable changes in weight and price fluctuations among the top stocks [7]

Group 1: US-China Trade Negotiations - The third round of US-China trade negotiations in Sweden is significant, especially after the US reached preliminary agreements with multiple countries, leaving China as one of the remaining major trade partners [4][5] - The US is exerting pressure on its remaining trade partners, as evidenced by the announcement of a 25% tariff on India, indicating a strategy to leverage recent agreements with other countries [5][6] - The US aims to reduce supply chain risks in strategic industries such as rare earths, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, potentially implementing lower tariffs initially before increasing them later [6][9] - China's expansion of export capacity and improvements in the value chain are seen positively, indicating a strong manufacturing sector that poses challenges to Western economies [7][9] Group 2: Recent Policy Meeting Insights - The core message from the recent policy meeting emphasizes enhancing the attractiveness and inclusivity of the domestic capital market, acknowledging the achievements in stabilizing the market since September of the previous year [12][13] - The monetary policy focus is on maintaining low financing costs across various sectors, including government bonds and corporate loans, rather than explicitly mentioning rate cuts [13] - The meeting highlighted the need to address local government behaviors that contribute to disorderly competition, indicating a structural approach to economic challenges [14] - The real estate sector's focus is on high-quality urban renewal, reflecting a shift towards structural adjustments rather than total volume increases [14][15] Group 3: Market Trends and Observations - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant declines, particularly in the semiconductor sector, influenced by broader market dynamics and competitive pressures in the electric vehicle market [17][18] - A notable risk in the A-share market is the suspension of trading for a stock due to abnormal fluctuations, signaling potential issues for speculative investments [24] - The bond market has seen considerable volatility recently, marking one of the highest fluctuation periods of the year [25][26]

重卡批销/上牌分别实现9.2万/约6.4万辆，同比高增29%/36%，实现4月以来的"批零三连涨"，华泰证券认为核心驱动力在于"以旧换新"政策效果在全国范围 内加速显现。展望2025年下半年，预计重卡行业批发量同比增速约23%，景气度上行有望带动行业头部企业和供应链利润释放。推荐头部车企，轮胎推荐具 备"国内重卡受益"和"非涉案（欧洲双反调查）基地大产能"属性的头部轮胎企业。 流动性充裕叠加市场情绪升温，推动A股上台阶。外部环境也较为有利，积极情绪或蔓延至A股。展望后市，我们继续维持战略乐观判断，目前海内外宏观 环境、市场风险偏好和新赛道结构性景气均出现积极信号，预计市场有望进一步"上台阶"。短期来看，在连续3周市场大涨后，A股阶段性回调压力正在上 升，但市场整体系统性风险不大，股权风险溢价指标显示目前仍然处在机会水平附近。因此依然看好后市行情，整体维持偏高仓位，若短期市场出现调整则 是布局良机。 主力净流入行业板块前五：食品，中药，银行，钢铁，动漫； 主力净流入概念板块前五：大农业，西部大开发，内蒙古概念，电力体制改革，优化生育 （三孩）； 主力净流入个股前十：包钢股份、兆易创新、中国平安、万华化学、禾望电 ...

机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：杨海晏/袁航 主体的成熟节点（≥28nm）以客户需求为中心进行差异化开发，HV、射频/模拟、嵌入式存储等特殊工 艺领域存在广阔创新空间。 向更先进节点演进，带动收入结构和毛利率水平不断提升。公司12 寸晶圆制造是收入主力，25Q1 收入 占比达到约78.1%，8 寸晶圆占比21.9%。向12 寸高价值产品特别是先进制程的倾斜，带动公司平均晶 圆售价和毛利提升。25Q1 公司毛利率为22.5%，已连续三个季度回暖至20%以上，显示产品结构改善和 产能利用提升的正面效果。 高端替代的核心受益者。本土IC 设计公司在高端领域崛起后，尤其是在先进节点上倾向与本土晶圆厂 合作。目前海外晶圆代工厂由于部分BIS 出口管制原因无法承接中国本土企业的先进芯片订单，中芯国 际借此机会有望成为本地化的核心受益者。一方面这部分高端芯片订单提高了公司未来业绩增长确定 性，另一方面也赋予其一定战略溢价。在自主可控的大方向下，公司有望承接回流订单，从而实现超越 半导体周期成长。 本地化制造成为成熟制程增量。顺应国际形势变化，中国凭借庞大市场驱动China for China供应链成 形，汽车产业尤为明显，促使 ...

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the A-share market is expected to exhibit a "slow bull" pattern characterized by structural opportunities, driven by favorable tariff negotiations, continuous policy support, and an overall improvement in liquidity conditions [2][8][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of avoiding high-flying stocks and suggests focusing on low-performing sectors that are likely to rotate, which is a key trend in the current market dynamics [2][9] Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations around the 3600-point mark, with no significant signs of weakness despite some index divergence [2][9] - The report notes that the market is likely entering a period of consolidation, with indices expected to oscillate around 3600 points to digest previous pressures [4][8] - Key characteristics of the market include a "weak Shanghai, strong Shenzhen" trend, with the ChiNext index performing particularly well, reaching new highs for the year [8][10] Sector Analysis Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is highlighted as a growth area, with recent policy changes from the National Medical Insurance Administration expected to support this segment [6][7] - The report suggests that the pharmaceutical sector has significant investment value due to its previous downturn, low price-to-earnings ratios, and the increasing demand driven by an aging population [6] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector is noted for its strong performance, with government policies supporting the industry and a projected global market growth of over 15% by 2025 [7] - The report encourages investment in the semiconductor sector, particularly in companies that are leading in technology and can adapt quickly to industry changes [7] Trading Strategy - The report advises investors to maintain a rational approach, avoiding blind speculation and focusing on sector rotation, especially in low-performing areas [2][9] - It suggests that investors should consider reducing positions in stocks that have seen significant gains and look for opportunities in sectors that have lagged behind [2][9]

Group 1 - The A-share market showed a general recovery in July, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index, influenced by improved market sentiment and policy catalysts [2] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a volatile upward trend in July, with the Hang Seng Technology Index and Hang Seng Composite Index increasing by 7.1% and 6.7% respectively, due to easing overseas disturbances and a recovery in domestic risk appetite [2] Group 2 - The market is expected to reach new highs in the second half of the year, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamental and liquidity-driven dynamics, with potential for a breakout above the 2024 mid-year peak [3] - Focus on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies and potential rebound opportunities, particularly in coal, steel, photovoltaic, and building materials, with a rotational rebound characteristic anticipated [3] - Key industries to watch include electronics and machinery, with specific attention to chemical fibers, engineering machinery, military electronics, aerospace equipment, and automation equipment [3] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index has surpassed previous highs and is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong overall profitability and relatively low valuations in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] - The "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors benefiting from domestic supportive policies in the context of US-China competition, as well as independent internet technology companies [5] - High dividend and low volatility strategies are also advised, particularly in telecommunications, public utilities, and banking sectors, providing stable income as a foundational investment [5]

Group 1 - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets showed signs of recovery in July, with major indices generally rising, driven by improved market sentiment and policy catalysts. The ChiNext index had the highest increase of 8.7%, while the Shanghai Composite Index had the smallest increase of 3.1% [1][8] - The steel, construction materials, and non-ferrous metals sectors performed well due to ongoing anti-involution policies and infrastructure projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station [1][8] - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a steady upward trend, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 7.1% and the Hang Seng Index by 5.5% as of July 25, 2025 [1][10] Group 2 - The A-share market is expected to reach new highs in the second half of the year, transitioning from policy-driven to fundamentals and liquidity-driven growth, with potential to surpass the peak of the second half of 2024 [2][12] - Focus on sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies, including coal, steel, photovoltaic, and construction materials, as well as opportunities in electronics and machinery equipment [2][13] - The market is anticipated to exhibit a "rotation and rebound" characteristic, with attention on industries that have lagged behind but have shown strong historical performance [2][13] Group 3 - The Hang Seng Index has surpassed previous highs and is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by strong profitability in the Hong Kong market and low valuations in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals [3][19] - The "dumbbell" strategy is recommended, focusing on technology growth and high dividend yield sectors, including telecommunications, utilities, and banking [3][19] - Key stocks for August 2025 in the A-share market include Dongfang Caifu, Hainan Huatie, and Huayou Cobalt, while the Hong Kong stock recommendations include China Life, Xinhua Insurance, and Tencent Holdings [3][24][28]