Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a significant surge in the non-ferrous metal sector driven by rising risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts, with the Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF (159880) rising over 7.3% and 14 constituent stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - Southwest Securities indicates that both precious metals and industrial copper sectors are showing positive expansion, with resource-advantaged companies continuously increasing reserves and production, and upcoming production from marine gold mining projects [1] - As of January 28, 2026, the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) has surged by 6.31%, with significant gains in constituent stocks such as Silver Non-Ferrous (up 10.04%), China Aluminum (up 10.02%), and Yunnan Copper (up 10.02%) [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index (399395) include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and others, collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [2] - The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF (159880) closely tracks the Guozheng Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Index, which selects 50 securities from the non-ferrous metal industry based on size and liquidity, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this sector [1][2]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate is experiencing a strong upward trend, aiming for a second consecutive week of gains and a third consecutive month of appreciation against the USD, reaching multi-year highs [1] - The recent weakness of the USD has provided support for the GBP/USD rise, with the USD index falling 0.84% to 96.219 as of January 27, and the GBP trading at 1.3780 USD, reflecting an increase from the previous trading day [1] - The USD index has seen a cumulative decline of 1.7% in the last week, indicating a persistent weakness against major currencies, including the GBP [1] Group 2 - Market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision, with most economists expecting the Fed to maintain the current rate between 3.50% and 3.75% [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 4.4%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rate is as high as 95.6% [2] - There is a divergence between market expectations and Fed officials regarding the pace of potential rate cuts, with some analysts predicting a faster rate cut schedule than the Fed's mainstream expectation of only one cut this year [2] Group 3 - Technically, the GBP/USD has reached its highest level in over 51 months, breaking through key resistance levels that previously hindered its upward movement [4] - As of January 28, the GBP/USD rate was reported at 1.3800, with a daily high of 1.3849 and a low of 1.3789, indicating strong bullish momentum [4] - The 1.4000 level remains a critical technical barrier for the currency pair's continued upward trend, and its ability to break through this level will significantly impact future price movements [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the British pound has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a six-month high of 1.3789, driven by a weaker dollar, resilient UK economic data, and delayed interest rate cut expectations [1][2] - The UK economy shows resilience, with the composite PMI rising to 53.9 in January 2026, indicating accelerated business growth and warming demand, which suggests strong GDP growth in the first quarter [1] - The divergence in monetary policy between the UK and the US enhances the pound's advantage, with UK inflation rebounding to 3.4% in December, reducing the likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - The weak US dollar index, which fell to 96.27, has contributed to the pound's strength, as funds shift towards GBP assets due to reduced safe-haven appeal of the dollar [2] - Several institutions have raised their forecasts for the GBP/USD exchange rate, with expectations of breaking through the 1.38 level and targeting 1.40, with NatWest predicting rates of 1.41 and 1.42 by mid and end of 2026 [2] - There are uncertainties surrounding the pound's trajectory, particularly due to political risks in the UK and internal divisions within the Bank of England regarding interest rate decisions [2][3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Macro and Stock Index**: In the current macro - economic environment with weak macro and loose liquidity, sentiment - based investment is dominant. The equity market may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term, and investors should seize the structured opportunities between large - and small - cap stocks [2]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, central bank gold purchases, and a weakening dollar are supporting gold prices. However, technical overbought conditions and potential hawkish signals from the Fed may cause short - term pressure. Investors should focus on geopolitical developments and Fed statements [3]. - **Silver**: Industrial demand growth, precious - metal sector linkages, and safe - haven capital inflows are driving silver prices, but technical overbought conditions and potential profit - taking may lead to short - term corrections. Attention should be paid to official supply - demand data and sector linkages [4]. - **Chemical Industry**: - **PTA**: It will follow cost fluctuations in the short term, and investors should manage their positions [6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Market sentiment is improving, and investors should focus on cost prices and downstream production cuts [7]. - **Plastic**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The short - term price will fluctuate within a bottom range, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment and other factors [9]. - **Glass**: The short - term price will fluctuate within a bottom range, and attention should be paid to factors such as production capacity and market sentiment [10][11]. - **Methanol**: The futures price may fluctuate upward within a range in the short term, and investors should focus on port inventory, geopolitical situations, MTO device maintenance, and pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment [12][13]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Corn**: There is still selling pressure in the production areas, and there may be a risk of a phased correction [14]. - **Peanut**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and cautious operation is recommended [15]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price will oscillate within a range in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: It may fluctuate within a range in the short term [18]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price center may move up within the fluctuation range [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The RM2605 contract may have a corrective rebound in the short term [20]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The OI2605 contract may test the upper price level in the short term [21]. - **Live Pig**: The pig price may enter an oscillation phase, and continuous attention should be paid to farmers' slaughter situation [22]. - **Egg**: In the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to farmers' chick - rearing and hen - culling situations [23][24]. - **Metals**: - **Shanghai Copper**: The copper price will experience increased volatility in the third wave, and attention should be paid to its technical daily - line trajectory in 2026 [25]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: If subsequent positive factors continue, the price center may move up, but cautious operation is recommended [26]. - **Alumina**: The supply - surplus expectation persists, and the price is temporarily stable due to the balance of long and short forces [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly linked to Shanghai Aluminum. Attention should be paid to cost and demand changes [28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It may experience severe high - level oscillations in the future, and conservative investors are advised to wait and see [30]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Cost support is dominant, and there may be no trending market in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. - **Polysilicon**: Trading is sluggish, and participation is not recommended for the time being [31][32]. - **Black Metals**: - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term operation will be volatile due to the policy adjustment of Indonesian nickel mines [32][33]. - **Rebar**: The steel market sentiment is divided, and the steel price will oscillate [34]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market sentiment is divided, and the steel price will oscillate [35]. - **Iron Ore**: It will mainly oscillate in the near future. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation and demand recovery [36]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They may maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to steel mills' purchasing power and policy implementation [37]. 3. Summary by Category Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Information**: The current economic characteristic of "stronger production than demand, better external demand than domestic demand" may continue throughout the year. Monetary policy remains loose, and inter - bank interest rates have dropped to near - lowest levels since 2020. Sentiment - based investment is dominant [2]. - **Market Analysis**: On Monday, the equity market fluctuated downward. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to 4132.61 points. The market turnover rose to 3.28 trillion yuan. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals and precious metals rose, while the consumer and commercial aerospace sectors declined. The trading volume of broad - based index ETFs remained active [2]. - **Reference View**: The market may fluctuate widely in the short term, and investors should seize the structured opportunities [2]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical**: Tensions in the Middle East have intensified, the US dollar index has fallen, and the Fed's rate - cut expectation in 2026 persists. Global central banks, including China, have been net buyers of gold [3]. - **Market Analysis**: On January 26, the spot gold price in the Asian session exceeded $5110/ounce. Geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and a weakening dollar support the price, but technical overbought conditions and potential hawkish Fed signals may cause short - term pressure [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Focus on the Middle East geopolitical situation and the Fed's statements. Track the trend, manage positions, and avoid chasing high prices [3]. Silver - **External Price**: On January 26, the London silver spot price exceeded $110/ounce. The net short position of COMEX silver decreased. Silver demand in the new - energy sector has doubled, and global silver production has declined [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Industrial demand growth, precious - metal sector linkages, and safe - haven capital inflows support the price. However, technical overbought conditions and potential profit - taking may lead to short - term corrections [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Pay attention to official supply - demand data and sector linkages. Control positions, conduct band operations, and monitor key support levels [4]. Chemical Industry - **PTA**: - **Spot Information**: The East China spot price is 5350 yuan/ton (+63 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 80 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [6]. - **Market Analysis**: International oil prices fluctuate slightly. The upstream PX operating rate is 89.87% (- 2.08%). PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent. Processing fees have stabilized. Supply pressure has been slightly relieved, but polyester enterprises have many production - cut and maintenance plans [6]. - **Reference View**: It will follow cost fluctuations in the short term, and position management is recommended [6]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Spot Information**: The East China spot price is 3885 yuan/ton (+93 yuan/ton), and the basis is - 109 yuan/ton (+96 yuan/ton) [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Fluctuations in international oil prices affect the cost. Overseas device maintenance boosts market sentiment. Port inventory has decreased slightly, and overall capacity utilization has declined. Polyester load is high, but there is an expected production cut before the Spring Festival [7]. - **Reference View**: Market sentiment is improving. Focus on cost prices and downstream production cuts [7]. - **Plastic**: - **Spot Information**: The spot prices in North, East, and South China have all increased [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The polyethylene device operating rate has increased, and maintenance - affected production has decreased. The downstream operating rate has declined. Inventory has been reduced, and the futures price has rebounded. However, the impact of the off - season has not disappeared, and seasonal pressure is increasing [8]. - **Reference View**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price in the Shahe area is flat, and there are slight differences among regions [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall operating rate and production have decreased slightly. Factory and social inventories have declined. The demand side is weak. The short - term price will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment [9]. - **Reference View**: The short - term price will fluctuate within a bottom range [9]. - **Glass**: - **Spot Information**: The 5mm large - plate market price in the Shahe area is flat, and there are slight differences among regions [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The float - glass operating rate has decreased slightly, and production has increased slightly. Factory inventory has increased slightly. The demand is limited by the weak terminal and downstream operations. The short - term price will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to production capacity and market sentiment [10][11]. - **Reference View**: The short - term price will fluctuate within a bottom range [10][11]. - **Methanol**: - **Spot Information**: The spot prices in different regions have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The futures price has rebounded for five consecutive days. Port inventory pressure has been relieved due to reduced imports. The domestic operating rate is high, but demand is weak. Rising natural gas prices and geopolitical tensions support the price [12]. - **Reference View**: The futures price may fluctuate upward within a range in the short term. Focus on port inventory, geopolitical situations, MTO device maintenance, and pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment [12][13]. Agricultural Products - **Corn**: - **Spot Information**: The purchase prices in different regions are provided [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The US corn production, demand, and ending inventory have all increased, leading to a decline in futures prices. In China, the grain - selling progress in the Northeast is fast, and there may be a small peak before the Spring Festival. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is weak [14]. - **Reference View**: There is still selling pressure in the production areas, and there may be a risk of a phased correction [14]. - **Peanut**: - **Spot Price**: The price is stable or slightly rising in different regions. Some areas are affected by farmers' price - holding [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply - side's willingness to sell has increased due to inventory pressure and capital -回笼 needs, but transportation is restricted in some areas. The demand side is cautious. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and attention should be paid to production - area supply and downstream procurement [15]. - **Reference View**: The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and cautious operation is recommended [15]. - **Cotton**: - **Spot Information**: The Chinese cotton spot price index and Xinjiang cotton arrival price are given [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Positive macro expectations and a decrease in the US production and ending inventory support the price. In China, commercial inventory is accumulating, and the demand side is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment [16][17]. - **Reference View**: The cotton price will oscillate within a range in the short term, and short - term operations are recommended [16][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: - **Spot Information**: The spot prices in different regions have increased [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Globally, the expected high - yield of South American soybeans increases supply pressure. In China, high costs and supply - demand contradictions coexist. The market is mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and the Spring Festival inventory replenishment has boosted prices [18]. - **Reference View**: It may fluctuate within a range in the short term [18]. - **Soybean Oil**: - **Spot Information**: The spot prices in different regions have increased [19]. - **Market Analysis**: Optimistic expectations for the US bio - diesel policy and an increase in Malaysian palm oil exports support the price. In China, production decline and inventory reduction support the price, but the expected high - yield of South American soybeans limits the upside [19]. - **Reference View**: The price center may move up within the fluctuation range [19]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: - **Spot Market**: The basis of the imported powder meal in Machong Port is flat [20]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak during the off - season [20]. - **Reference View**: The RM2605 contract may have a corrective rebound in the short term [20]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: - **Spot Market**: The basis of the imported pressed tertiary rapeseed oil in Fangcheng Port is flat [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The US bio - fuel blending policy is about to be clarified. Domestic demand is neutral, and some oil mills still have a willingness to replenish inventory [21]. - **Reference View**: The OI2605 contract may test the upper price level in the short term [21]. - **Live Pig**: - **Spot Market**: The average price of live pigs in major production and sales areas has decreased slightly, while the price in Henan has increased slightly [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply pressure is increasing as farmers accelerate the slaughter before the Spring Festival. Demand is weakening as the price rebounds. The supply will be abundant in the first half of 2026, and the pig - production capacity reduction will take time [22]. - **Reference View**: Continuous attention should be paid to farmers' slaughter situation [22]. - **Egg**: - **Spot Market**: The egg price in the main production areas has increased [23]. - **Market Analysis**: Farmers' chick - rearing enthusiasm has declined, and the laying - hen inventory has decreased slightly. However, high inventory and weak demand limit price increases. Attention should be paid to medium - to long - term capacity reduction and cold - storage egg inventory [23][24]. - **Reference View**: In the medium - to long - term, attention should be paid to farmers' chick - rearing and hen - culling situations [23][24]. Metals - **Shanghai Copper**: - **Spot Information**: The price of 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai has decreased, and the import copper - ore index has also declined [25]. - **Market Analysis**: The Fed may have a third rate - cut in 2026. Domestic policies are positive, but raw - material supply problems still exist. The copper price may have a phased resonance [25]. - **Reference View**: The copper price will experience increased volatility in the third wave, and attention should be paid to its technical daily - line trajectory in 2026 [25]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: - **Spot Information**: The Shanghai spot aluminum price has decreased [26]. - **Market Analysis**: The macro sentiment has cooled down. The supply is stable, and the demand is weak during the off - season. The inventory has increased. The price may get support if the macro sentiment is positive, but inventory accumulation may limit the upside [26]. - **Reference View**: If subsequent positive factors continue, the price center may move up, but cautious operation is recommended [26]. - **Alumina**: - **Spot Information**: The national average price of alumina has decreased [27]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is increasing as the import of bauxite and domestic production increase. The demand is mainly for rigid - demand procurement. The inventory is increasing. The supply - surplus situation continues [27]. - **Reference View**: The supply - surplus expectation persists, and the price is temporarily stable due to the balance of long and short forces [27]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: - **Spot Information**: The average price of aluminum alloy is flat [28]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost is supported by the relatively stable supply of scrap aluminum. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is weak during the off - season. The inventory is high, and the de - stocking trend is hard to form [28][29]. - **Reference View**: The price is strongly linked to Shanghai Aluminum. Attention should be paid to cost and demand changes [28][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have increased [30]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply is affected by project delays and mining - right rectification, but it is still in the expansion cycle. The demand is strong due to the growth of the new - energy vehicle and energy - storage markets. The inventory is decreasing, and the market expectation has changed from oversupply to a tight balance [30]. - **Reference View**: It may experience severe high - level oscillations in the future, and conservative investors are advised to wait and see [30]. - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Spot Information**: The market prices of different grades in Xinjiang are provided [31

Core Viewpoint - The tin metal market is experiencing a significant price surge, continuing the upward trend from 2025, with prices reaching historical highs due to a combination of geopolitical conflicts, supply constraints, and long-term demand expectations [1][4][5]. Price Trends - On January 26, 2026, the main contract for tin futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose over 10%, reaching approximately 462,700 yuan/ton, and closed at 425,300 yuan/ton, marking a 1.37% increase from the previous trading day and over 25% increase for the month [1]. - The LME three-month tin price hit a record high of about $55,400 per ton (approximately 358,200 yuan/ton) on January 23, 2026, up 6.5% from the previous day [1]. Supply Constraints - The current geopolitical situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo has escalated, increasing safety risks in the main production areas, compounded by slow recovery in Myanmar and uncertainties in Indonesian policies, creating a "triple constraint" on supply [5]. - Global tin inventories are at historically low levels, with LME tin inventory at 7,195 tons, a 21.23% increase month-on-month, while domestic social inventory has accumulated to 9,700 tons, up 0.18% [6]. Demand Dynamics - There is a clear distinction in demand, with short-term pressures due to the traditional off-season and high prices, while long-term growth is driven by AI computing, photovoltaic new energy, and electric vehicles, which are expected to significantly outpace traditional sectors [3][7]. - Analysts suggest that while there is a strong long-term growth expectation for tin demand, the immediate consumption is being suppressed by seasonal factors and high prices [7]. Future Price Outlook - Short-term factors supporting high tin prices include a weak dollar environment, supply concerns due to geopolitical conflicts, and positive market sentiment, which may lead to further price increases [8]. - Analysts from Huatai Futures indicate that the sensitivity of high-tech companies to interest rate cuts could benefit tin demand, supported by rising capital expenditures in the semiconductor sector [8]. - Future price rationalization is anticipated, with expectations of increased tin supply from recovering mines, projecting an increase of 23,000 to 25,000 tons in 2026, which may alleviate some upward price pressures [9].

【导读】上期所调整白银、锡期货交易限额，以及铜、铝期货涨跌停板幅度等 1月26日，上海期货交易所（以下简称上期所）发布多条公告，再次收紧白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额的同时，进一步调整了铜、铝期货相关合约涨跌 停板幅度和交易保证金比例。 调整白银、锡期货相关合约交易限额 上期所表示，根据《上海期货交易所风险控制管理办法》的有关规定，经研究决定，自2026年1月27日（即1月26日夜盘）交易起，非期货公司会员、境外 特殊非经纪参与者、客户在白银、锡期货已上市合约的交易限额调整如下： 白银期货AG2602、AG2603、AG2604、AG2605、AG2606、AG2607、AG2608、AG2609、AG2610、AG2611、AG2612、AG2701合约的日内开仓交易的 最大数量为800手。 锡期货SN2602、SN2603、SN2604、SN2605、SN2606、SN2607、SN2608、SN2609、SN2610、SN2611、SN2612、SN2701合约的日内开仓交易的最大数 量为200手。 实际控制关系账户组日内开仓交易的最大数量按照单个客户执行。套期保值交易和做市交易的开仓数量不受此限制。 调 ...

Core Insights - Despite the uncertain political environment in the U.S., U.S. Treasury yields remain relatively stable, indicating continued investor preference for U.S. Treasuries [1] - The market widely anticipates further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to boost the performance of U.S. Treasuries [1] - The resilience of the U.S. economy enhances the attractiveness of its assets [1] - While foreign investors may reduce their investments in U.S. assets in the medium to long term, the likelihood of a large-scale sell-off in the short term is low [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term safe - haven situation has shifted from trade - war concerns to rising geopolitical risks. The weakening US employment and moderate inflation support the expectation of interest rate cuts [1]. - Geopolitical risks are on the rise, such as the US aircraft carrier strike group's movement to the Middle East, Iran's warning, and Trump's statements regarding Canada's trade agreement and the Greenland deal [1]. - In terms of the monetary attribute, the US employment is weakening, with a slight increase in initial jobless claims. The Fed cut interest rates in December 2025 and may cut once in 2026. Market expectations suggest a low probability of a January 2026 rate cut, with the next possible cut in June [1]. - Regarding the commodity attribute, Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations from the hydrogen - energy platinum - based catalyst industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but long - term structural pressure from the fuel - vehicle market [1]. - It is expected that precious metals will show a short - term upward - trending oscillation, a medium - term high - level oscillation, and a long - term step - by - step upward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Gold - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2]. - Price: International and domestic gold prices have increased. For example, the Comex gold active contract closed at $4983.10 per ounce, up 0.91% from the previous day and 8.30% from the previous week [2]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex gold, Shanghai gold futures, and gold T + D have changed, and the inventories of LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai gold futures have also shown some fluctuations [2]. 3.2 Silver - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [4]. - Price: International and domestic silver prices have risen significantly. The Comex silver active contract closed at $103.26 per ounce, up 7.32% from the previous day and 14.80% from the previous week [4]. - Position and inventory: The positions of Comex silver, Shanghai silver futures, and silver T + D have changed, and the inventories of LBMA, Comex, and Shanghai silver futures have also been adjusted [4]. 3.3 Platinum - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy on dips. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6]. - Price: International and domestic platinum prices have increased. The NYMEX platinum active contract closed at $2627.10 per ounce, up 5.98% from the previous day and 8.75% from the previous week [7]. - Position and inventory: The position of the NYMEX platinum active contract has decreased slightly, and the inventory has also changed [7]. 3.4 Palladium - Strategy: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [9]. - Price: International and domestic palladium prices have gone up. The NYMEX palladium active contract closed at $1945.50 per ounce, up 3.79% from the previous day and 4.29% from the previous week [9]. - Position and inventory: The position of the NYMEX palladium active contract has decreased slightly, and the inventory has changed [9]. 3.5 Key Fundamental Data of Precious Metals - Monetary attribute: The Federal Reserve's interest rates, balance sheet, M2, and other indicators have changed. The US labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, and trade also show different trends [10][12]. - Safe - haven attribute: The geopolitical risk index and VIX index are monitored, reflecting the current geopolitical situation and market volatility [12]. - Commodity attribute: The CRB commodity index and the exchange rate of the offshore RMB have changed, which have an impact on precious metals' prices [12]. 3.6 Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations The probability of different interest - rate ranges at each Federal Reserve meeting from 2026 to 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's interest - rate decisions [14].

Group 1 - The focus of the market is on the potential 100% tariffs imposed by President Trump on Canada if a trade agreement is reached with China, leading to a shift towards safe-haven assets [1] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is a key point of interest this week, especially amid escalating global geopolitical tensions [1] - A series of important economic data releases this week will provide clearer insights into the global economic situation, which investors are closely monitoring [1] Group 2 - On Monday, the market will pay attention to Germany's IFO Business Climate Index, which is expected to show improvement, indicating a gradual recovery in the German economy [3] - The U.S. is set to release November durable goods orders, with expectations of a significant improvement to 3.7% month-on-month, up from -2.2% [3] Group 3 - On Tuesday, the U.S. will release the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, with expectations for a slight improvement above 90, reflecting consumer sentiment towards the economy [4] - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is also expected to remain negative for the 11th consecutive month, but a slight improvement is anticipated, suggesting a gradual recovery in manufacturing [4] Group 4 - On Wednesday, Australia's CPI for December is expected to rise to 3.5% year-on-year, maintaining expectations for potential interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank of Australia [6] - The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its interest rate unchanged at 2.25%, with most market participants anticipating stability unless trade negotiations with the U.S. falter [6] Group 5 - On Thursday, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its interest rate, with market participants looking for insights from Chairman Powell's press conference regarding future policy directions [7] - The market anticipates at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, emphasizing a cautious stance amid geopolitical tensions [7] Group 6 - On Friday, Japan will release December employment data, while Germany and the Eurozone will report January unemployment rates, expected to remain at 6.3% [8] - The Eurozone's Q4 GDP is projected to slow from 1.4% to 1.3% year-on-year, with the ECB noting stronger-than-expected economic resilience driven by domestic demand [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: Gold, Silver Futures Weekly Report [2] - Report Period: January 26 - 30, 2026 [1] 1. Gold Futures 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support, but short - term risks of high - level corrections exist [7]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [8]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is strongly rising, possibly at the end of the trend [7]. - Driving Factors: Last week's strong rise was driven by geopolitical conflicts, central bank gold purchases, a weak dollar, and interest - rate cut expectations [7]. - Support: Geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases provide long - term support [7]. - Risks: Short - term risks include overbought technical indicators and policy uncertainties [7]. - Focus: Future attention should be on the Fed's policy path and global macroeconomic data [7]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it was recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with a resistance level of 1045 - 1050 yuan/gram and a support level of 1020 - 1025 yuan/gram. It was advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [10]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish in the short term, with a support level of 1085 - 1095 yuan/gram. It is advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [11]. - Market Conditions: The daily line is in a strong upward phase, at a sensitive position in the head. There is a possibility of trend reversal. The main force shows a strong bullish sentiment, and there is a certain risk of a market turn [12]. 1.3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yields, the US dollar index, the US dollar against the offshore RMB, the gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and the gold price difference between domestic and foreign markets [18][21][23][25][28] 2. Silver Futures 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in a strong upward phase, currently at the end of the trend. Geopolitical risks, industrial supply - demand gaps, and market funds drive the price up. In the long - term, the price center has the basis to move up, but short - term correction risks exist [32]. - It is recommended to wait and see in the medium term [32]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Medium - term Market Analysis - Trend: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is strongly rising, currently at the end of the trend [32]. - Driving Factors: Last week's price increase was driven by geopolitical risks, industrial supply - demand gaps, and market funds [32]. - Support: In the long - term, the price center has the basis to move up due to the growth of green industry demand, continuous supply - demand gaps, and asset allocation diversification [32]. - Risks: Short - term risks include overbought technical indicators, ETF reductions, and policy uncertainties [32]. - Focus: Future attention should be on the Fed's policy and global manufacturing PMI [32]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [32]. 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last Week's Strategy Review: The silver contract 2604 was trading at a high level, with a resistance level of 23,200 - 23,700 yuan and a support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/kg. It was advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [35]. - This Week's Strategy Suggestion: The silver contract 2604 is trading at a high level, with a support level of 22,500 - 23,000 yuan/kg. It is advised to buy on dips and control positions due to high - level volatility [36]. - Market Conditions: The daily line is in a strong upward phase, possibly near the end of the trend. The main force shows a strong bullish sentiment, with large capital inflows and increased attention. The external market had a significant pre - opening increase [37]. 2.3.3 Relevant Data Situation - Data includes the price trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and the silver price difference between domestic and foreign markets [43][46][48]