交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 黄金 1、基本面：美联储决议前夕，沪银再现夜间5万手增仓，银价情绪依旧强劲；美国 三大股指收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年 期美债收益率涨2.35个基点报4.188%；美元指数涨0.14%报99.24，离岸人民币对美 元升值报7.0602；COMEX白银期货涨4.72%报61.16美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：白银期货13607，现货13602，基差-5，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：沪银期货仓单717788 千克，日环比增加18497千克；偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上， ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 10 日 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：再创新高，突破 60 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪金2512 | 961.04 | 0.80% | 958.72 | 0.15% | | | 黄金T+D | 956.00 | 0.80% | 954.99 | 0.20% | | | Comex黄金2512 | 4227.70 | -0.24% | - | | | | 伦敦金现货 | 4196.37 | -0.23% | - | - | | | 沪银2512 | 13687 | 1.94% | 13788.00 | 2.67% | | 价 格 | 白银T+D | 13639 | 1.58% | 13756 | 1.91% | | | Comex白银2512 | 58.800 | 2.21% | - | - | | | 伦敦银现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of TL2603 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is weak, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. Although there are expectations of interest rate cuts in the long term, there is supply pressure on long - term bonds in the short term and institutional profit - taking needs at the end of the year, so there is insufficient upward momentum in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is weak, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while there are still long - term easing expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - Yesterday, treasury bond futures oscillated and rebounded. The Politburo meeting indicates that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented, so there are still expectations of interest rate cuts in the long term, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. However, considering the front - loaded fiscal efforts in the first quarter and the supply pressure of long - term bonds, as well as institutional profit - taking needs at the end of the year, the short - term upward momentum of treasury bond futures is insufficient. Overall, treasury bond futures are under pressure and support, and will mainly oscillate and consolidate in the short term [5].

截至今日凌晨，纽约期银及现货白银日内涨幅均超4%，分别至61美元/盎司及60美元/盎司上方，今年迄 今，银价已经上涨了近110%。 与此同时，现货黄金上涨0.6%，至每盎司4215美元；美国2月交割的黄金期货上涨0.6%，至4244.80美 元。 其他贵金属方面，现货钯金日内涨幅扩大至2.00%，现报1502.12美元/盎司；现货铂金上涨3%，至每盎 司1692.10美元。 近几个月来，投资者对贵金属的需求大幅上升，部分原因是西方主要经济体债务水平攀升及货币贬值风 险上升。 12月9日晚间，黄金小幅走高，白银则攀升至历史新高。现货白银首次站上60美元/盎司的心理关口，纽 约期银也首次站上60美元/盎司，沪银主力合约现涨幅超过3%，最高涨至14086元/千克，续创历史新 高。 纽约白银 CFD(2603) く T 開 SI 60.38 +1.98 +3.39% 12-09 23:49:18 60.55 持仓量 今开 58.52 最高 振幅 4.37% 最低 57.99 美元指数 99.2432 +0.1444% 月K 分时 五日 日K 圖K 曲号 均价:59.26 最新:60.39 +1.98 +3.39% 6 ...

12月9日晚间，黄金小幅走高，白银则攀升至历史新高。现货白银首次站上60美元/盎司的心理关口，纽 约期银也首次站上60美元/盎司，沪银主力合约现涨幅超过3%，最高涨至14086元/千克，续创历史新 高。 | 伦敦银(现货白银) CFD | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 XAG | | | | | | | | | 60.06 +1.93 +3.32% | | | | | | | | | 12-09 23:57:00 | | | | | | | | | 今开 | 58.12 | 最高 | | 60.07 | 持仓量 | | | | 振幅 57.57 | 4.30% | 最低 | | | 昨结算 | | 58.13 | | 美元指数 99.2406 +0.1418% | | | | | | | | | 分时 | 王日 | 日K | 園K | | 月K | 重零 | | | 均价:58.37 最新:60.06 +1.93 +3.32% | | | | | | | | | 60.07 | | | | | | | 3 ...

面对这种复杂的分化，我的核心观点是：必须告别大宗商品"同涨同跌"的旧思维，进入"因品而异"的深 度分析时代。 驱动逻辑正从单纯的宏观Beta，转向深刻的产业Alpha。 朋友们，我是帮主郑重。今天早上一看全球大宗商品的行情，感觉就像是看一场"冰与火"的对抗赛。这 边厢，白银价格气势如虹，一举突破每盎司60美元大关，再次刷新历史纪录；那边厢，原油和铜价却双 双低头下跌。这可不是简单的涨跌，背后是不同资产在"降息预期"这面镜子前，照出的截然不同的身 影。今天，咱们就来拆解这场分化大戏。 这出戏的第一幕，是白银的"金融属性"狂欢。白银单日大涨超4%，突破60美元，核心动力就是市场对 美联储即将降息的笃定预期。利率下行，意味着持有白银这类不生息资产的机会成本降低，自然会吸引 资金涌入。同时，现货市场的紧张和工业需求的潜力（如光伏），也为这轮上涨添了把火。它和黄金一 样，此刻更像是追逐宽松货币的"金融资产"。 但同属金属家族的铜，却演出了另一幕。铜价从高位回落，显示了市场在降息"靴子"落地前的谨慎。铜 价此前的上涨，很大程度上已经透支了降息和供应紧张（如矿山停产）的预期。现在利好临近，部分资 金选择"获利了结"。更重要 ...

记者丨黎雨桐 编辑丨金珊 周二（12月9日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.38%，标普500指数跌0.09%，纳指涨0.13%。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47560.29 | 23576.49 | 6840.51 | | -179.03 -0.38% | +30.59 +0.13% | -6.00 -0.09% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7730.60 | 25676.25 | 6846.25 | | -107.15 -1.37% | +12.25 +0.05% | -9.50 -0.14% | 大型科技股涨跌互现，万得美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.14%。特斯拉、谷歌涨超1%，亚马逊涨0.45%， 微软涨0.20%，脸书跌超1%，苹果跌0.26%，英伟达跌0.31%。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | | --- | --- | | 4209.390 | 60.561 | | +2.800 +0.07% -0.092 -0.15% | | 加密货币普涨，比特币涨破92000美元关口。近24小时全球 ...

记者丨黎雨桐 编辑丨金珊 周二（12月9日），美国三大股指收盘涨跌不一，道指跌0.38%，标普500指数跌0.09%，纳指涨0.13%。 | 道琼斯 | 纳斯达克 | 标普500 | | --- | --- | --- | | 47560.29 | 23576.49 | 6840.51 | | -179.03 -0.38% | +30.59 +0.13% | -6.00 -0.09% | | 中国金龙指数 | 纳指100期货 | 标普500期货 | | 7730.60 | 25676.25 | 6846.25 | | -107.15 -1.37% | +12.25 +0.05% | -9.50 -0.14% | 大型科技股涨跌互现，万得美国科技七巨头指数上涨0.14%。特斯拉、谷歌涨超1%，亚马逊涨0.45%，微软涨0.20%，脸书跌超1%，苹果跌 0.26%，英伟达跌0.31%。 摩根大通股价下跌4.66%，创4月份以来最大单日跌幅。此前该公司高管Marianne Lake在一场由高盛集团举办的会议上表示，该行预计2026年 全年支出为1050亿美元，远超华尔街预期。 金价银价开盘小幅震荡，黄金站稳4200 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Dynamics - The market is anticipating a significant shift towards interest rate cuts, with the probability of a December rate cut rising from below 50% to over 80% according to CME's FedWatch tool [5] - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly highlighted the tightness of the U.S. job market, suggesting a potential spike in unemployment, while inflation appears to be temporarily subdued [3][5] - The absence of key economic data, such as Q3 GDP and September PCE index, creates uncertainty for the Federal Reserve, likening their current situation to "blind flying" [5][7] Group 2: Global Economic Concerns - Concerns are growing over the global liquidity situation, with warnings from Bank of America that the numerous rate cuts by central banks this year may soon reach their limits [7] - The decline in Japan's 30-year government bond prices and the weakening yen could trigger a significant outflow of capital, impacting global equity and bond markets [7] Group 3: Company Insights - Broadcom has seen a 60% increase in stock price this year, driven by its role in supplying core components for Google's AI initiatives, positioning it as a key player in the AI supply chain [8][10] - The tech sector is experiencing a surge in bond issuance, with major companies like Meta, Google, and Oracle contributing to a significant increase in overall debt levels [11][13] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on "interest rate sensitive" assets, such as long-term government bonds and fundamentally strong mid-cap stocks, if rate cuts materialize [14][15] - Companies deeply integrated into the AI supply chain, like Broadcom, are seen as solid investment opportunities due to their stable order flow from major tech players [15] - High-leverage companies that rely on debt to finance operations should be approached with caution, as rising CDS prices indicate increasing concerns over default risks [13][17]

英国各期限国债收益率下跌2-3个基点，其中30年期国债收益率下跌3个基点至5.2%；交易员押注英国央 行将在2026年底前降息56个基点。 英国央行官员Mann表示，疲软的就业前景可能会缓解价格担忧，该行的Lombardelli则预计财政大臣里 夫斯的预算将降低通货膨胀0.5个百分点；该行Ramsden暗示倾向于下周降息，并表示他预计利率将稳定 在约3%。 法国长期国债收益率下跌2-3个基点；交易员等待周二晚些时候对社会保障预算的关键投票。 英国央行决策者的评论支持了降息预期，推动英国国债表现略微跑赢。 英国央行决策者的评论支持了降息预期，推动英国国债表现略微跑赢。 英国各期限国债收益率下跌2-3个基点，其中30年期国债收益率下跌3个基点至5.2%；交易员押注英国央 行将在2026年底前降息56个基点。 英国央行官员Mann表示，疲软的就业前景可能会缓解价格担忧，该行的Lombardelli则预计财政大臣里 夫斯的预算将降低通货膨胀0.5个百分点；该行Ramsden暗示倾向于下周降息，并表示他预计利率将稳定 在约3%。 市场： 德国国债收益率下降1个基点至2.85%， 德国国债期货上涨20.00点至127.4 ...