投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250702 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美参议院通过大美丽法案，国内推进统一大市场 海外方面，美国参议院以微弱优势通过特朗普《大美丽法案》，该法案目前在众议院等 待最终批准，特朗普力争在 7 月 4 日独立日前完成签署。关税方面，特朗普称美印或将达成 贸易协议，但对与日本达成协议表示怀疑，并暗示对日进口商品关税或升至 30%-35%（原 24%）。美国 5 月职位空缺数升至去年 11 月来新高，就业需求仍具有韧劲，鲍威尔重申"先 观察再行动"，称经济稳健可容耐心评估关税影响，通胀温和保留宽松空间，并暗示若无关 税因素，原本将继续降息。美元延续弱势，创年内新低至 96.37，关注短期反弹的可能，美 股走势分化，黄金、原油与铜价齐涨。 国内方面，习近平主持中央财经委会议，强调推进统一大市场、发展海洋经济，治理低 价竞争，引导提质增效，推动落后产能退出，有助于缓解当前物价低迷的局面。6 月财新制 造业 PMI 回升至 50.4，重返扩张区 ...

美国总统特朗普表示，不考虑延长7月9日关税谈判截止日期；7月9日之前可能无法与日本达成 协议；日本可能面临30%或35%的关税；有两到三个候选人可以担任美联储主席。 美联储主席鲍威尔表示，如果不是因为美国总统特朗普的关税政策，美联储目前应该会采取更 宽松的货币政策。在被问及7月份降息的可能性时，鲍威尔称不会排除任何可能性，这将取决于 数据。他表示，美联储"绝大多数"成员确实预计今年晚些时候再次降息是合适的。 观 消 息 欧盟与美国正围绕贸易协议展开最后阶段博弈。据知情人士披露，欧盟已原则上同意接受美方 提出的10%普遍关税方案，但要求美国在制药、半导体等四大关键领域作出对等让步。白宫经济 顾问委员会主任米兰称，对与欧盟达成贸易协议"持乐观态度"。 欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，欧元区6月通胀已达2%目标，但任务尚未完成，并警告地缘政治和全 球分裂带来双向风险。拉加德称降息周期接近尾声，但不会预设承诺，未来政策将依赖数据。 20250702申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 0 ...

Group 1 - The black metal sector is experiencing a compression in steel mill profits, with rebar prices being driven up by raw material fluctuations [1] - Current trading logic includes acceptable steel mill profitability, short-term strong pig iron output, and a decline in raw material supply leading to a rebound, while seasonal steel demand is weakening [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut and the upcoming vote on a new fiscal bill are increasing market sentiment towards dual easing in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy [1] Group 2 - Rebar price expectations remain stable, with inventory levels low and limited expectations for significant accumulation in the future [1] - The acceleration of special bond issuance in June is noted, but the allocation towards practical work funds is decreasing, and real estate sales are weakening [1] - Attention is required on the July Politburo meeting for potential new policy stimuli for the real estate sector, with cautious outlooks on rebar prices and rebound heights [1] Group 3 - Hot-rolled coil prices have shown a recent increase in year-on-year demand, but there are expectations of weakening in reality, leading to a contraction in the price difference between hot and cold rolled products [1] - The steel mills are experiencing weaker order intake, with exports increasing year-on-year, but a significant decline in June exports is anticipated [1] - The market sentiment is positively influenced by the expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, but demand expectations remain under pressure [1] Group 4 - Iron ore prices are showing strength due to seasonal declines in shipments expected in July and rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] - Global shipments and arrivals have decreased, alleviating supply pressure, while iron water output remains stable with strong profit margins for blast furnaces [1] - The trading strategy suggests a gradual shift to short positions after a rebound, with resistance levels for the September contract noted at 720-740 yuan and support levels at 680 yuan and 640-650 yuan [1]

黑色建材日报 2025-07-02 钢材 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3003 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 6 元/吨（0.200%）。当日注册仓单 24614 吨, 环比增加 6393 吨。主力合约持仓量为 207.6067 万手，环比减少 48103 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3150 元/吨, 环比减少 10/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3120 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3136 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 13 元/吨（0.416%）。 当日注册仓单 66957 吨, 环比减少 586 吨。主力合约持仓量为 152.2628 万手，环 ...

一、现货黄金基本面： 1.避险需求方面：6月23日凌晨，以色列中部多地响起防空警报，胡塞武装声称对以色列发动导弹袭击。23日早，有消息称伊朗支持的组织正准备袭击美国 在伊拉克和叙利亚的基地，随后伊朗攻击了美军驻卡塔尔基地，还向巴林发射了导弹等。这些冲突事件使得中东地区局势的不确定性和紧张程度大幅上升。 不过，6月24日特朗普宣布以色列和伊朗同意停火，紧张局势有所缓和。这会使市场的避险情绪降温，对黄金的避险需求减少，金价面临回调压力。 2. 市场预期方面：中东战局的发展可能会对全球经济产生一定的影响，进而影响货币政策预期。例如，如果冲突持续升级，可能会导致石油等大宗商品价格 上涨，引发通胀预期上升，这将对黄金构成支撑。但如果冲突导致全球经济增长放缓，各国央行可能会采取宽松的货币政策来刺激经济，这也会对黄金有 利。然而，目前来看，虽然中东局势紧张，但市场对美联储货币政策的预期主要还是受美国国内经济数据的影响。6月美联储议息会议维持利率不变，市场 对9月降息的预期从55%降至25%，导致美元指数反弹，压制了黄金的吸引力。 交易风险提示：任何投资都存在风险，包括资金损失的风险。该建议不构成具体的投资建议，投资者应根据 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance is undergoing subtle changes, with Goldman Sachs adjusting its interest rate cut expectations from a single cut in December to three cuts starting in September, reflecting a reassessment of the U.S. economic environment and inflation trends [1]. Group 1: Tariff Impact and Inflation - Goldman Sachs analysts noted that preliminary evidence suggests the impact of tariffs on inflation is less severe than previously expected, with May's personal consumption expenditure data showing an unexpected decline due to the fading effects of pre-tariff purchasing [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that without the Trump administration's tariff policies, the Fed would likely have begun cutting rates this year, indicating that tariffs have significantly raised inflation forecasts [3]. Group 2: Divergence in Market Expectations and Policy - There is a notable division within the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of interest rate cuts, with 10 officials advocating for at least two cuts this year while 7 officials express concerns over persistent price pressures from tariffs [4]. - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic maintains a forecast for one cut this year and three cuts by 2026, emphasizing the gradual impact of tariffs on prices and the need for more information before making rate adjustments [4]. Group 3: Economic Data and Future Policy Outlook - Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that if tariffs remain around 10%, the Fed might start cutting rates in the second half of 2025, contingent on the resolution of tariffs by July [5]. - Several investment banks, including Citigroup and Wells Fargo, expect the Fed to cut rates three times in 2025, with Goldman Sachs predicting two additional cuts in 2026, bringing the final rate to a range of 3.00%-3.25% [5].

一、政策迷雾中的市场困局 最近鲍威尔在欧洲央行论坛上的表态，让全球市场为之一振。这位美联储掌门人暗示年内可能降息，但具体时点却要"看数据"。这种模棱两可的表态， 像极了我们A股市场的走势——看似有方向，实则充满变数。 特朗普的关税大棒、美联储的独立性之争、经济数据的反复无常...这些宏观因素交织在一起，构成了当前市场的"政策迷雾"。大资金们在这种环境下如 履薄冰，既不敢大举进攻，又不愿轻易撤退。于是我们看到指数在狭小空间里反复震荡，个股则上演着"今天涨停明天跌停"的戏码。 二、散户的两难困境 其实股价波动只是表象，背后是机构资金的博弈游戏。传统技术分析告诉我们：洗盘是短暂下跌后快速反弹，出货则是持续阴跌。但问题是，等你能用 肉眼确认时，往往已经错过最佳时机。 这时候就需要借助量化工具来透视市场本质。通过大数据分析交易行为特征，我们可以把模糊的市场语言翻译成清晰的交易信号。 在这样的市场里，散户往往陷入两难：要么被短期波动吓得提前出局，错过后续行情；要么死扛到底，结果发现扛错了对象。就像去年"9.24行情"前， 多少人嘲笑"国家队"越买越亏，结果行情启动时早已被震出局外。 看看这张走势图，是不是似曾相识？股价在 ...

金十数据7月2日讯，澳大利亚5月份零售额增幅低于预期，促使交易员更加坚定了澳洲联储最快将于下 周降息的预期。澳大利亚统计局周三公布的数据显示，5月份零售销售增长0.2%，高于上月的持平，但 低于0.5%的预期增幅。此前的一系列报告显示，从物价压力缓解到出人意料的失业和谨慎的消费者情 绪，经济势头正在减弱，这加强了澳洲联储进一步降息的理由。交易员完全消化了今年还有三次降息的 预期，且最快将在下周二降息。 澳大利亚零售销售低于预期，增加降息可能性 ...

2025年07月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期升温 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：继续冲高 | 2 | | 铜：现货坚挺，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：基本面偏承压 | 6 | | 铅：存旺季预期，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：宏观环境带动上行 | 9 | | 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 11 | | 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 2 日 黄金：降息预期升温 白银：继续冲高 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 刘雨萱 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 | liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 1、报道称欧盟愿意接受美国对多类商品 10%关税 ...

Group 1 - Asian stock markets may struggle to achieve seasonal gains in July due to concerns over tariffs and macroeconomic conditions, with the average return for July over the past decade being 1.36% [1] - The uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations with the US is a significant barrier to maintaining past performance, as highlighted by Deutsche Bank's Chief Investment Officer [1] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has risen for three consecutive months as of June, but the reinstatement of higher tariffs could lead to a sharp decline in the stock market [1] Group 2 - The third quarter presents potential risks, including higher inflation and growth slowdown, with skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's pace of interest rate cuts [2] - If tariff outcomes are milder than expected and the Federal Reserve signals a more dovish stance, it could encourage capital inflows into Asian markets [2] - The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index has increased by 12% year-to-date, outperforming the US market, although Southeast Asian countries face significant pressure from tariff impacts [2]