今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-原油】欧佩克+的八个产油国在8月3日继续举行会 议，以审查市场状况、合规情况和补偿事宜。依据列表，8月份 沙特阿拉伯原油日产量可以达到975.6万桶；俄罗斯原油日产量 可以达到934.4万桶。伊拉克原油日产量可以达到417.1万桶， 阿联酋原油日产量可以达到327.2万桶；科威特原油日产量可以 达到251.8万桶；哈萨克斯坦原油日产量可以达到153.2万桶。 评：OPEC+维持增产的立场不变。短期原油低库存，消费旺季， 成品油开工和加工利润尚可。中期重点关注6-8月期间OPEC+实 际产量落实情况。短期震荡，中期等待沽空时机成熟。适度提 防地缘演化。 【短评-黄金】美国总统特朗普接连在社媒上公布其对多个 国家发出的关税信函，截至目前，其已对14个国家发出最新的 关税税率威胁。其中日本、韩国、哈萨克斯坦、马来西亚和突 尼斯面临25%的关税税率，南非、波斯尼亚税率为30%，印尼税 率为32%，孟加拉国和塞尔维亚为35%，泰国和柬埔寨税率为 36%，老挝和缅甸税率为40%。上述关税将于8月1日生效。评： 关税扰动再起，避险情绪对贵金属或有一定支撑，但是本次关 税扰动或较弱，市场关 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 8 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国国会通过规模达 3.4 万亿美元的大美丽法案削弱美国经济衰退预期，美 国 6 月份新增非农就业高于市场预期且失业率意外下降，上述两则消息抑制美联 储降息预期、推高美元指数并打压贵金属价格，7 日亚盘时段伦敦黄金回调至 3305 美元/盎司附近，短期可能继续偏弱运行。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组 进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线 上涨趋势保持良好，建议投资者继续持多头思维依托上涨趋势线以中低仓位 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have rebounded, with the gold ETF (518800) rising by 0.66%, and a net inflow of over 550 million yuan in the past 10 days, bringing its current scale to over 18.5 billion yuan, ranking among the top in its category [1] - The U.S. government has announced new unilateral tariff rates, with expectations that these tariffs will take effect on August 1, leading to increased market risk aversion [1] - The "Too Big to Fail" legislation has been signed, which is expected to significantly increase U.S. debt levels and weaken the dollar's credit, potentially supporting precious metal valuations [1] Group 2 - As of the end of June, China's gold reserves reached 73.9 million ounces, an increase of 70,000 ounces from the end of May, marking the eighth consecutive month of gold accumulation [2] - A survey indicated that 43% of 72 central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, a significant rise from 29% last year, marking a historical high in the past eight years [2] - Long-term expectations show that 76% of central banks anticipate an increase in the proportion of gold holdings in their reserves over the next five years, up from 69% last year, indicating a growing demand for gold in a diversified international reserve system [2] Group 3 - The gold ETF (518800) closely tracks gold price movements and offers T+0 trading, making it a more convenient and liquid option compared to purchasing physical gold [3] - The ETF primarily invests in gold spot contracts, with expected risk-return levels similar to gold assets, differing from stock, mixed, bond, and money market funds [3]

不同销售渠道的金价差异巨大，投资者需仔细甄别。 银行金条：民生银行、农业银行、平安银行等机构今日金条报价分别为790.45元/克、790.30元/克和788.20元/克，普遍高于大盘价约18元/克。 这主要是因为 银行金条包含品牌溢价、正规回购渠道及制作工艺等隐性成本，适合追求长期储值或送礼的投资者。但若以投资获利为目的，则需仔细权衡溢价是否合理。 黄金投资指南：2025年7月6日金价波动分析及投资策略 今日金价剧烈波动，国际金价更是创下近三个月新高，引发市场热议。许多投资者纷纷询问：是时候出手黄金了吗？本文将深入分析今日金价走势，并结合 不同渠道的金价差异，为您的投资决策提供参考。 国际金价飙升，创近三月新高 国际金价今日表现抢眼，纽约期金价格暴涨至3347.35美元/盎司，单日涨幅高达4.45%；伦敦现货金更是突破至3336.93美元/盎司，单日涨幅惊人地达到 11.06%，创下近三个月最大单日涨幅。 这波强劲上涨主要源于美联储降息预期升温以及美元走弱，导致全球资金涌入黄金市场寻求避险，从而推高了国际 金价。 换算成人民币，国际金价约为768.73元/克，较昨日上涨2.55%。 对于现货黄金及纸黄金投资者 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the escalating trade tensions due to the Trump administration's tariff policies, which are causing significant market volatility and impacting global financial markets [1][3]. - The U.S. plans to impose a 25% tariff on all products imported from Japan and South Korea starting August 1, 2025, as part of a broader strategy to address trade imbalances [3]. - Additional tariffs will be applied to various countries, including 25% on Kazakhstan and Malaysia, 30% on South Africa, and 40% on Laos and Myanmar, indicating a comprehensive approach to trade policy [3]. Group 2 - Central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, with China's central bank reporting a rise in gold reserves to 73.9 million ounces, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases [4]. - Following the announcement of tariffs, international gold prices surged over 2%, reaching $3,360 per ounce, reflecting heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset amid trade tensions [4]. - The performance of the gold market contrasts sharply with the decline in global stock markets, where major U.S. indices fell significantly due to concerns over tariff policies [4].

Fundamental Analysis - Trump's tariff policy has triggered increased demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets and a subsequent rebound in gold prices [3] - The People's Bank of China has continued to increase its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, indicating a strategic emphasis on gold as a long-term asset [3] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are closely monitored, with a 95% probability of maintaining rates in July and a 60% chance of a rate cut in September, influenced by inflation concerns [3] Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold showed a rebound after a dip, indicating relative strength and potential for further upward movement if it breaks through resistance at 3365/3366 [4] - The four-hour chart suggests that gold is in a corrective phase, with the potential for a third wave of upward movement if it holds above the support level of 3296 [6] - Key support levels to watch include 3321 and 3315, while resistance levels are identified at 3365/3366 and 3374 [6]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down nearly 1%, Nasdaq down 0.92%, and S&P 500 down about 0.8%, indicating a cautious market sentiment [1] Company Performance - Japanese and Korean companies listed in the U.S. faced significant stock price drops, with Nissan down over 7%, Toyota down nearly 4%, SK Telecom down over 7%, and LG Display down more than 8%. This decline is attributed to the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, with Japan and Korea facing a 25% tariff [3] - Tesla's stock fell 6.79%, influenced by Elon Musk's political activities, which raised investor concerns about his focus shifting away from technology and market growth [3] - In contrast, the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.59%, with Bilibili up over 7% and Baidu nearly 4%, while Xpeng Motors fell nearly 5% and Alibaba down over 2%, indicating a selective investment approach within Chinese stocks [3] Currency and Commodity Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.53% to 97.48, as investors sought safety in the dollar amid stock market declines, strengthening against major currencies like the euro and pound [4] - Goldman Sachs suggested that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates as early as September, which could positively impact technology and growth stocks [4] - Oil prices increased despite OPEC+ announcing production increases, with Brent crude rising 1.87% and West Texas Intermediate crude up 1.39%, indicating a tighter supply in the physical market [4] - Gold prices experienced a V-shaped recovery, reflecting investor behavior in response to geopolitical and policy uncertainties [4] Key Factors Influencing the Market - The market volatility is largely driven by "policy" and "expectations," with ongoing concerns about tariff policies, Elon Musk's actions, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate direction being critical factors to monitor for their potential impact on company fundamentals and industry trends [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Stocks: Short - term shock, biased towards strong operation, short - term cautious long [2][3] - Treasury bonds: Short - term high - level shock, cautious observation [2] - Commodities: - Black: Short - term low - level shock rebound, short - term cautious long [2] - Non - ferrous: Short - term shock correction, short - term cautious observation [2] - Energy and chemicals: Short - term shock, cautious observation [2] - Precious metals: Short - term high - level shock, cautious long [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US has postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date and imposed new tariffs on some countries, increasing short - term tariff risks and cooling global risk appetite. Domestically, the June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: The US postponed the "reciprocal" tariff effective date from July 9th to August 1st, sent letters to 14 countries about new tariffs (25% on Japan and South Korea), increasing short - term tariff risks, the US dollar index rebounded, and global risk appetite cooled [2]. - Domestic: China's June PMI data continued to rise, economic growth accelerated; domestic consumption policy stimulus increased, and the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission emphasized "anti - involution", which helped boost domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets, RMB appreciation, and continued warming of domestic market sentiment led to an increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks short - term shock, biased towards strong; treasury bonds short - term high - level shock; black commodities short - term low - level shock rebound; non - ferrous short - term shock correction; energy and chemicals short - term shock; precious metals short - term high - level shock [2]. 3.2 Stocks - Driven by sectors such as CSSC, power, and cross - border payment, the domestic stock market rose slightly. China's June PMI data continued to rise, and policies helped boost domestic risk appetite. The current trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward drivers weakened. Short - term cautious long [3]. 3.3 Precious metals - Trump's tariff announcements increased market risk - aversion sentiment, but the strengthening US dollar and better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data, as well as the Fed's cautious attitude, put pressure on precious metals. The "Big Beautiful Act" provides long - term support for gold. Tariff disturbances will be the main short - term influencing factor, and gold volatility is expected to rise [4]. 3.4 Black metals 3.4.1 Steel - The domestic steel spot and futures markets declined slightly, and trading volume remained low. The focus shifted to tariff negotiations. Vietnam imposed anti - dumping tariffs on Chinese hot - rolled steel, and the off - season affected demand. Supply - side production decreased, but finished product output increased slightly. Cost support was strong. Short - term range - bound thinking [5][7]. 3.4.2 Iron ore - Iron ore spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron production decreased, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. After the end - of - quarter shipment peak, shipping volume decreased, and arrival volume increased slightly. If iron production continues to decline, ore prices may fall [7]. 3.4.3 Silicon manganese/silicon iron - Spot prices were flat. Demand for ferroalloys was okay due to the increase in steel output, but there was a possibility of a decline in finished product output. Manganese ore prices rose. The market was expected to be range - bound in the short term [8]. 3.4.4 Soda ash - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the signal of "anti - involution" from the Central Financial and Economic Commission, there were concerns about production capacity withdrawal in the glass industry, which initially drove up the price, but then it fell due to the weak supply - demand situation. Supply decreased due to equipment maintenance, demand increased slightly, and profit decreased. In the long run, supply remained loose, and it was not advisable to go long [9]. 3.4.5 Glass - The main contract price was weak. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, there were expectations of production cuts in the glass industry, which drove up the price. Supply increased slightly, demand was weak, and profit was at a low level. Production - cut expectations on the supply side were expected to support prices [10]. 3.5 Non - ferrous and new energy 3.5.1 Copper - The market may fluctuate as the July 9th deadline approaches. The clarity of trade tariffs may help the market rise. China's refined copper production increased in 2025, and inventory was at a medium - low level due to high demand [11]. 3.5.2 Aluminum - The price of Shanghai aluminum fell due to tariff concerns. LME inventory increased, and domestic inventory also increased slightly [11]. 3.5.3 Aluminum alloy - Entered the off - season, demand was weak, but tight scrap aluminum supply supported prices. Short - term shock, biased towards strong, but limited upside [11]. 3.5.4 Tin - Supply increased as the combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi rebounded. Demand was weak in most sectors, and inventory increased. Short - term shock, but high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weakening demand would limit the upside in the medium term [12]. 3.5.5 Lithium carbonate - The main contract price fluctuated slightly. Supply faced a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. Cost support was strong. Viewed as shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.6 Industrial silicon - The main contract price was stable, and the spot price rebounded. Total production decreased due to reduced furnace - opening in the north. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, shock, biased towards strong [13]. 3.5.7 Polysilicon - The main contract price was strong, especially in the far - month contracts. Benefited from the "anti - involution" theme, expected to be strong, with high price elasticity [13][14]. 3.6 Energy and chemicals 3.6.1 Crude oil - Strong demand offset concerns about OPEC+ production increase and US tariffs. Short - term shock [15]. 3.6.2 Asphalt - Oil prices were low, asphalt prices were in shock. Shipping volume decreased, factory inventory decreased slowly, and social inventory increased slightly. Followed crude oil at a high level [15]. 3.6.3 PX - After the decline in crude oil premium, the PX price weakened, and the PXN spread narrowed. PTA production recovery would support PX, and the weakening trend might slow down [15]. 3.6.4 PTA - Spot liquidity improved, inventory increased, and the basis and 9 - 1 spread weakened. Downstream operating rates continued to decline, and PTA prices had room to fall [16]. 3.6.5 Ethylene glycol - Port inventory decreased, supply pressure weakened, but downstream demand limited further inventory reduction. Short - term bottom - building, followed the polyester sector weakly [16]. 3.6.6 Short - fiber - Crude oil price decline drove down short - fiber prices. It followed the polyester sector, with weak terminal orders and high inventory. It would be in a weak shock pattern in the medium term [16]. 3.6.7 Methanol - Domestic maintenance and reduced arrivals provided short - term support, but international production recovery and expected downstream maintenance led to a poor supply - demand outlook. It rebounded slightly under policy influence, with limited upside [16]. 3.6.8 PP - Production - restriction and new capacity coexisted, supply pressure eased slightly. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and oil prices were weak. Prices were expected to fall further [17]. 3.6.9 LLDPE - Equipment maintenance increased, but production was still high year - on - year. Downstream demand was in the off - season, and inventory was expected to increase. Prices were under pressure [17]. 3.7 Agricultural products 3.7.1 Palm oil - As of July 4, 2025, domestic palm oil inventory decreased slightly. Malaysian palm oil production decreased in June, exports increased, and inventory was expected to decrease. Concerns about the US EPA hearing [19]. 3.7.2 Corn - Imported corn auctions and new wheat substitution increased supply, and futures prices were expected to weaken. However, it was difficult for futures to trade at a discount. The expected import volume was not expected to affect the new - season market, but there were concerns about pests and diseases [19][21]. 3.7.3 US soybeans - The price of CBOT soybeans fell. The planting area was determined, and weather in the 7 - 8 key growth period was crucial. The current growing environment was good, but the risk of tariff implementation increased export uncertainty [20]. 3.7.4 Soybean and rapeseed meal - Soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal inventory increased. Oil mills had high operating rates, and supply was abundant. The supply pressure in the 09 contract period was difficult to relieve, but short - term stability in US soybeans provided some support [20]. 3.7.5 Soybean and rapeseed oil - Soybean oil production decreased, rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly. Rapeseed oil was supported by policies and the international market, and soybean oil inventory increased. They lacked an independent market and were affected by palm oil [20]. 3.7.6 Pigs - Leading enterprises had low willingness to increase sales volume and reduce weight. Supply in July was expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea in spring. There was a weak supply - demand situation, and the expected profit in the 8 - 9 peak season was low. Second - fattening was cautious, and the concentrated supply at the end of July and August would limit price increases [21].

Group 1 - The global gold market is experiencing a volatile phase, with Shanghai gold TD prices slightly down by 0.10% to 770.8 CNY per gram, indicating a potential turning point after a sustained upward trend [1] - Citibank's report suggests that the significant rise in gold prices has been driven by diminishing safe-haven demand, predicting that the current bull market may be nearing its end [2][3] - Central bank gold purchases dropped by 33% in Q1 2024 compared to the previous quarter, indicating a slowdown in buying even from major consumers like China [3] Group 2 - The influence of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy on gold prices is critical, as rising real interest rates could diminish gold's appeal, especially if inflation remains high [3] - The large-scale economic stimulus plan proposed in the U.S. budget for 2025 may negatively impact gold prices by shifting investor focus towards riskier assets like stocks [3] - India and China account for over 60% of global gold jewelry demand, and their sensitivity to price changes could lead to decreased purchases if gold prices remain high [4] Group 3 - Brand gold prices in retail stores on July 7, 2025, range from 982 to 1006 CNY per gram, reflecting slight variations among different brands [5] - Financial institutions and manufacturers show a range of gold bar prices from 634 to 816 CNY per gram, influenced by brand premiums and production costs [6] - The current market conditions suggest a critical turning point for gold prices, with reduced safe-haven demand and investment enthusiasm indicating potential downward pressure [8]

夏季多雨，虽然带来清凉，但也暗藏多重健康与安全风险。 蹚水后突发高烧、小腿红肿，可能是感染了"丹毒"；校园内外积水，暗藏溺水危机，老旧校舍存在垮塌 风险；山洪、内涝等可能带来险情……面对这些潜在风险，科学防范与系统应对至关重要。 个人健康 当心蹚水染"丹毒" 中南大学湘雅医院皮肤科副主任医师、副教授李芳芳介绍，暴雨会导致部分路段积水，蹚水通过可能潜 藏健康风险，引发"丹毒"。 "直白地说，'丹毒'就是皮肤发炎的升级版。"李芳芳告诉记者，它通常是因为β—溶血性链球菌钻进了 皮肤上一些小伤口产生细菌感染，进而导致的皮肤红肿、发热、疼痛，严重时会起水疱、发烧。从表面 特征看，皮肤像被烫伤一样，红彤彤一片，边界还特别明显，摸上去又烫又疼。 "脚气抓破皮、抠烂的蚊子包，甚至脚后跟自然干裂的口子等，都有可能成为细菌入侵的目标。"李芳芳 说。 "一旦怀疑患上'丹毒'，务必及时就医。"李芳芳表示，"医生通常会根据病情开具口服或静脉注射的抗生 素进行规范、足疗程的治疗，切勿自行处理或拖延，以免感染扩散，引发更严重的并发症，如蜂窝织 炎、败血症等；治疗期间需要充分休息，抬高患肢以减轻肿胀，并严格遵医嘱用药。" 面对"丹毒"感染风 ...