1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods has significantly impacted the global financial and commodity markets, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [2][3]. - The risk of a resurgence in the China - US tariff war and the potential increase in the supply - demand surplus in the oil market will keep the oil market in a weak and volatile state [2]. - The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains stable, and they may continue to rise as the US signals a willingness to negotiate [3]. - Most commodity markets are under pressure due to trade frictions, but some may have certain support levels or short - term rebounds based on their fundamentals [4][5][8]. 3. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices dropped significantly on Friday due to Trump's tariff threat, and although they rebounded slightly on Monday, the Brent price was still 2.4% lower than on Friday afternoon. The oil market will continue to be weak and volatile, mainly due to the risk of the China - US tariff war and potential supply - demand imbalances [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Trump's tariff threat and the progress in the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation have led to concerns about global economic growth and oil demand, putting downward pressure on the fuel oil market. High - sulfur fuel oil may be relatively stronger, while low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to weaken further [22]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market maintains a tight supply - demand balance. Cost side weakness puts pressure on asphalt, but the cracking spread has rebounded since late September [23]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: OPEC+ future production increase and the decline in Saudi CP prices have led to a cautious market sentiment. LPG is under pressure in the short term [24]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward logic of precious metals is solid, and they may continue their upward trend as the market liquidity risk decreases [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Copper prices fell on Friday due to trade tensions. Although large - scale mine supply losses have affected copper concentrate production growth expectations, the impact of new trade risks on macro - sentiment should still be evaluated [4]. - **Aluminum**: Trump's tariff threat caused a significant drop in non - ferrous metals. The aluminum market has a neutral inventory accumulation, and the Shanghai Aluminum price has support around 20,500 yuan [5]. - **Zinc**: The market is bearish due to the tariff threat. The London Zinc price is under pressure at the 3050 - dollar/ton level, and the Shanghai Zinc market has a supply - surplus situation [8]. - **Lead**: The LME lead inventory is high, but the Shanghai Lead price has cost support. The rebound space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate between 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [9]. - **Nickel**: The Shanghai Nickel price rebounded and then fell back. The market is in a short - term oscillation, and it is not considered a bullish variety [10]. - **Tin**: The London Tin price may fall back to the pre - holiday trading range in the short term [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The implementation of export controls on lithium - related products may affect market risk preferences. With high inventory levels, there is a short - term callback risk [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price is stable compared to before the holiday. The industry is facing high - level inventory accumulation, and short - term attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the 48,000 - yuan/ton support [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable. The supply is expected to increase in October, and the price is expected to oscillate [14]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The urea market is weak. Production enterprises have large inventories, and the supply is high. The domestic supply - demand pattern remains loose [25]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market may continue to be weak due to the drop in oil prices and a weak macro - atmosphere. However, the rumored sanctions on Iranian vessels may affect imports [26]. - **Pure Benzene**: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term risk of decline, and the extent of the decline depends on oil prices [27]. - **Styrene**: The international financial market turmoil has increased the bearish sentiment in the styrene market. The price is under pressure due to cost and supply - demand factors [28]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The market is bearish, with increased inventory after the holiday and a downward - trending price center [29]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC market may be weak due to high supply and low demand. The caustic soda market has a high - pressure supply situation, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - **PX & PTA**: Facing cost and demand double - negative factors, there is a short - term downward risk. The supply - demand situation is expected to be under pressure in the long - term [31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly due to increased domestic production and high port inventory. The supply - demand situation will weaken in the fourth quarter [32]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The short - fiber price may decline due to oil price drops and trade frictions. The bottle - chip demand is expected to weaken after the holiday [33]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The US tariff threat has affected the US soybean market. The domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, but there may be supply shortages in the first quarter of next year if the trade relationship deteriorates [37]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The decline in oil prices has led to a drop in vegetable oil prices. The palm oil market in Malaysia has high inventory, while the Indonesian market is more resilient. In the long - term, oils are expected to be more resilient [38]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed market is affected by trade expectations. The rapeseed price is under short - term pressure, and the domestic rapeseed futures are expected to oscillate [39]. - **Soybean No.1**: The domestic soybean may be affected by the overseas market in the short - term. Enterprises are starting to purchase new - season soybeans [40]. - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures are more domestically - oriented. The new - grain listing has led to a decline in corn prices, but the state - owned grain reserve purchase may provide some support [41]. - **Livestock and Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The pig futures show a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. The supply pressure is high in the short - term, but the market may improve in the second half of next year [42]. - **Egg**: The egg price is under downward pressure due to high production capacity and off - season demand. The near - term contracts should be treated with a bearish view, while the contracts for the first half of next year can be considered for long - position allocation [43]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton demand is expected to be weak. The China - US trade frictions may lead to a decline in both domestic and international cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market has sufficient supply. The domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to be good in the 25/26 season, and attention should be paid to weather conditions [45]. - **Apple**: The apple futures price is oscillating at a high level. The new - season apple production is expected to be stable, and the high inventory may put pressure on prices [46]. - **Timber**: The timber market's supply - demand situation has improved. The low - price spot provides an opportunity for long - position allocation [47]. - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price has reached a new low. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock market is under pressure due to trade frictions and geopolitical issues. Short - term strategies can be adjusted according to market conditions, such as using far - month contracts for long - position allocation or near - month contracts for hedging [49]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed lower. The 10 - month liquidity gap is controllable, and the bond market is expected to gradually recover. The yield curve is expected to steepen [50].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, the uncertainty of Sino - US trade friction has increased, the US government shutdown is not over, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is high, which will continue to support the gold price. Silver generally maintains a strong trend, but there are risks of adjustment due to abnormal price - spread structure and potential suppression from Sino - US trade friction on its industrial attributes [6]. - In the long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainty persists, US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, increasing the long - term risk of the US dollar's credit. With the continuation of global central bank gold purchases, the long - term center of the gold price is likely to move up [7]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, London gold spot decreased by 1.6% to $3965.30 per ounce, London silver spot increased by 1.7% to $49.82 per ounce. COMEX gold decreased by 1.7% to $3980.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver decreased by 1.7% to $47.47 per ounce. The domestic AU2512 decreased by 1.4% to 901.56 yuan per gram, and AG2512 decreased by 0.8% to 11082 yuan per kilogram [5]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread on October 10, 2025, was - 3.46 yuan per gram (up 2.1% from the previous day), and the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 62 yuan per kilogram (up 55.0%). The gold and silver price - spread and ratio data also showed corresponding changes [5]. 2. Position Data - **COMEX Positions**: As of September 23, 2025 (weekly data), on October 10 compared with October 9, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 1.85% to 332808 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased by 9.43%. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions increased by 0.97% to 72318 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased by 0.21% [5]. - **ETF Positions**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 0.37% to 1017.16 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV decreased by 0.05% to 15443.76026 tons [5]. 3. Inventory Data - **SHFE Inventories**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, SHFE gold inventory remained unchanged at 70728 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.50% to 1169061 kilograms [5]. - **COMEX Inventories**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged at 39940670 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.70% to 522463797 troy ounces [5]. 4. Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Stock Markets - **Exchange Rates**: On October 10, 2025, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.10, down 0.08% from the previous day [5]. - **Interest Rates and Indices**: On October 10, 2025, compared with October 9, the US dollar index decreased by 0.59% to 98.82, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.22% to 3.52%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.17% to 4.05%. The VIX increased by 31.83% to 21.66, the S&P 500 decreased by 2.71% to 6552.51, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 5.33% to $58.24 per barrel [5]. 5. Market Analysis - **Short - term**: The short - term sharp decline in precious metal prices was due to profit - taking by speculative funds after the cease - fire in the Middle East. Then, the escalation of Sino - US trade friction boosted the precious metal prices again. Gold is expected to be supported by multiple factors, and silver generally maintains a strong trend but faces adjustment risks [6]. - **Long - term**: The long - term center of the gold price is likely to move up due to factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank gold purchases [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again and is likely to maintain a bullish trend. In the short term, due to Sino - US trade issues, market risk - aversion sentiment may intensify, and stock market volatility may increase. Domestically, the liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the current upward market trend, considering the expected increase in Q4's growth - stabilization policies and the resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4613.80, 4600.40, 4592.20, and 4571.80 respectively, with declines of 98.20, 102.80, 102.20, and 100.80. The trading volumes were 43832.00, 5422.00, 96227.00, and 16669.00, and the positions were 51030.00, 9132.00, 162971.00, and 55448.00, with position changes of - 3181.00, 1427.00, - 329.00, and 3589.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 2976.00, 2973.60, 2975.80, and 2974.00, with declines of 46.80, 48.60, 48.40, and 49.80. The trading volumes were 20378.00, 3053.00, 43708.00, and 6794.00, and the positions were 21085.00, 3090.00, 67688.00, and 13880.00, with position changes of 13.00, 793.00, 840.00, and 524.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7382.00, 7311.20, 7266.00, and 7100.60, with declines of 149.40, 160.40, 166.80, and 171.60. The trading volumes were 39765.00, 10064.00, 99771.00, and 20790.00, and the positions were 50530.00, 18841.00, 140200.00, and 50503.00, with position changes of - 6184.00, 3029.00, - 3614.00, and - 1513.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7514.20, 7421.80, 7340.40, and 7120.00, with declines of 104.60, 117.60, 127.40, and 128.80. The trading volumes were 53416.00, 15411.00, 140881.00, and 23742.00, and the positions were 70956.00, 22199.00, 183267.00, and 80505.00, with position changes of - 2937.00, 6180.00, 1106.00, and - 498.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.40, - 2.40, - 70.80, and - 92.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 9.60, - 0.80, - 62.40, and - 80.60 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4616.83, 2974.85, 7398.22, and 7533.82 respectively, with declines of 1.97%, 1.51%, 2.00%, and 1.49%. Their trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 319.02, 67.28, 262.26, and 290.43, and total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 7927.43, 2001.81, 5021.27, and 4857.04 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among industries, energy rose 0.88%, while raw materials, industry, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, information technology, telecom business, and public utilities had changes of - 2.23%, - 3.07%, - 1.22%, - 0.12%, - 2.74%, 0.48%, - 5.58%, - 1.41%, and 0.18% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month - CSI 300, next month - CSI 300, next quarter - CSI 300, far - quarter - CSI 300) were - 3.03, - 16.43, - 24.63, and - 45.03 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month - SSE 50, next month - SSE 50, next quarter - SSE 50, far - quarter - SSE 50) were 1.15, - 1.25, 0.95, and - 0.85 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month - CSI 500, next month - CSI 500, next quarter - CSI 500, far - quarter - CSI 500) were - 16.22, - 87.02, - 132.22, and - 297.62 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month - CSI 1000, next month - CSI 1000, next quarter - CSI 1000, far - quarter - CSI 1000) were - 19.62, - 112.02, - 193.42, and - 413.82 [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3897.03, 13355.42, 8293.71, and 3113.26 respectively, with declines of 0.94%, 2.70%, 2.86%, and 4.55% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26290.32, 48580.44, 6552.51, and 24241.46 respectively, with changes of - 1.73%, 1.77%, - 2.71%, and - 1.50% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban. The US plan to impose 100% tariffs on China seriously damages China's interests, and China firmly opposes it. China is not afraid of a tariff war. US Vice - President Vance signaled a potential easing of the trade situation, saying Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China [2] - The National Conference on Scientific and Technological Innovation in the Industrial and Information Technology Sector was held, emphasizing the construction of a modern industrial scientific and technological innovation system [2] 6. Industry Information - The 138th Canton Fair will open on October 15, with record - high exhibition scale and pre - registered buyers. It signals a potential continued resilient growth of China's foreign trade [2] - Supervision on the illegal flow of individual business loans into the real - estate market has been strengthened, and the risks of such loans are emerging as they reach maturity and real - estate values decline [2] - The "report - price - alignment" policy will be implemented in the non - auto insurance sector. Major insurance companies have set up working groups to implement regulatory requirements [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The threat of Trump to impose significant additional tariffs on China is uncertain, and market sentiment needs further clarification. For copper, overseas mine production cuts and reduced domestic refined copper output may support prices. If the trade situation is a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline [2][3]. - The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations is uncertain. For aluminum, if the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the domestic aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the pressure of aluminum ingot inventory accumulation is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity [5][6]. - For lead, the apparent inventory of lead ore has slightly increased, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead has decreased, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [8][9]. - For zinc, domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [10][12]. - For tin, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term [13][14]. - For nickel, short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices [15][17]. - For lithium carbonate, the strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices, and it is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations [19][20]. - For alumina, the short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [22][24]. - For stainless steel, the market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [26][27]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [29][30] Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Trump's tariff threat causes market panic, leading to a 3.73% drop in LME copper 3M to $10374/ton and a fall in SHFE copper to 83030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreases by 75 to 139000 tons, and domestic SHFE inventory increases by 15000 tons compared to before the holiday [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tariff threat is uncertain. From the fundamental perspective, supply tightening supports prices. If it's a short - term shock, there may be buying opportunities after the price decline. The operating range of SHFE copper is 82000 - 85500 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is $10200 - 10700/ton [3] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The deterioration of Sino - US trade relations causes aluminum prices to weaken. LME aluminum 3M drops 1.31% to $2746/ton, and SHFE aluminum closes at 20755 yuan/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventories increase slightly, and the processing fee of aluminum billets declines [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: If the tariff threat is short - term, market sentiment may recover. With the increase in the aluminum - water ratio and seasonal consumption recovery, the inventory accumulation pressure is not large, and the price decline may increase the upward elasticity. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 21100 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is $2700 - 2790/ton [6] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rises 0.12% to 17142 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rises to $2027.5/ton. Domestic social inventory decreases to 3.58 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The apparent inventory of lead ore increases slightly, and the smelting of primary lead is at a high level. The inventory of recycled lead decreases, and its smelting is at a low level. With the release of downstream demand and the increase in the cancellation of LME lead warehouse receipts, the structural risk of LME lead has increased. Short - term Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [9] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index falls 0.18% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S falls to $2997/ton. Domestic social inventory increases slightly to 15.02 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Domestic zinc smelting enterprises operate normally during holidays, and some downstream enterprises have long holidays. The registered LME zinc warehouse receipts are at a low level, and there is a structural risk. After the opening of the zinc ingot export window, short - covering in the domestic market provides short - term support. Short - term Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate at a low level with increased risk [11][12] Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices fall due to Sino - US trade frictions. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and Indonesia cracks down on illegal mining, increasing supply concerns. The downstream new - energy vehicle and AI server industries are booming, but traditional consumer electronics and photovoltaic industries are weak. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season drives marginal improvement in consumption [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the peak - season demand is recovering. Tin prices may maintain a high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of domestic tin is 280000 - 300000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $36000 - 39000/ton [14] Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuate and fall at night due to Sino - US trade frictions. The spot market trading is average, and the cost of nickel ore is stable. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and the price of MHP is high [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term Sino - US trade frictions may lower market risk appetite, but the impact on nickel prices is relatively small. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and consider buying on dips if the price drops enough. In the long - term, there are potential positive factors for nickel prices. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [17] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: On October 10, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate is flat at 73011 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72500 - 74000 yuan, and that of industrial - grade is 71500 - 72000 yuan. The price of LC2511 contract falls 0.82% [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The strong downstream demand during the National Day holiday drives inventory reduction, but the supply replenishment expectation restricts the upside space. The negative sentiment in the equity market may suppress lithium prices. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - environment changes and supply - demand expectations. The operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is 68800 - 73800 yuan/ton [20] Alumina - **Market Information**: On October 10, the alumina index falls 0.66% to 2861 yuan/ton. The spot price in Shandong falls to 2865 yuan/ton, and the overseas FOB price in Australia rises to $324/ton. The import window is close to closing, and the futures warehouse receipts increase [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term ore price has support but may face pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern in the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2600 - 3000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policy, and the Fed's monetary policy [23][24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract closes at 12860 yuan/ton, up 1.02%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi are stable. The raw - material prices are stable, and the social inventory decreases [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is trapped between "cost support" and "weak demand". If the nickel - iron price continues to rise, stainless steel may oscillate upward under cost support [27] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Aluminum alloy prices rise and then fall following aluminum prices. The AD2511 contract falls 0.41% to 20465 yuan/ton. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 rises slightly, and the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in the main domestic markets decreases [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost - end aluminum price weakens due to Sino - US trade relations, and the contract delivery pressure is large. However, with the improvement of downstream consumption and reduced raw - material supply, the price is expected to have support [30]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 13 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 加剧短线波动 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 企稳 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 说明： 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：周五夜盘因美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文称将对中国加征 100%关税，这导致商品和美 股普跌，金价震荡上行。中美贸易摩擦使市场避险情绪升温，利好贵金属，黄金或持续强于白银。而 短期的资产普跌可能出现流动性问题，即"拆东墙补西墙"，进而使金价短期承压，可参考今年 4 月 走势。预计贵金属或呈现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading logic of the soybean meal market is about to change, and it may stop falling and rebound in the short - term, with the domestic price stronger than the international price. The palm oil futures price faces volatility risks in the short - term [5][7] 3. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The domestic supply pressure has not been resolved, but soybean prices are near the cost line, oil mills are suffering continuous losses in crushing and have a stronger intention to support prices, and the negative basis of soybean meal is being repaired. Sino - US trade friction has escalated again, raising supply concerns. The suspension of the USDA report weakens the influence of US soybean futures on the domestic market [5] Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: weak; Reference view: weak [6][7] - **Core Logic**: After the unexpectedly bearish impact of the Malaysian palm oil report is released, the futures prices of palm oil at home and abroad have dropped rapidly. The weakening of international oil prices also casts a shadow over the demand for palm oil biodiesel. Unfavorable factors in the industrial chain, unstable trade relations, and weak international oil prices drag down the performance of palm oil futures prices [7] Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by various factors such as Sino - US trade frictions, policy regulations, and supply - demand relationships of different commodities. Sino - US trade issues, especially Trump's tariff threats and China's rare - earth export control, have significantly impacted the global financial market, including stocks and futures [6][14][16]. - For different commodities, their prices are mainly determined by supply - demand fundamentals. For example, in the agricultural products market, new product supply and demand consumption situations affect prices; in the energy - chemical market, production capacity, inventory, and downstream demand play key roles; in the industrial metals market, factors like inventory changes, production capacity, and trade policies are crucial [9][11][13]. - In the stock market, the A - share market is expected to be affected by short - term external shocks but will be supported by domestic policies in the medium - term. The market's core contradiction lies in domestic economic recovery and industrial upgrading [16]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic News - China's rare - earth export control is not a ban, and the impact on the supply chain is limited. China firmly opposes the US's tariff threats and will take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [6]. - US Vice - President Vance signaled a relaxation of Sino - US relations, saying that Trump is willing to have rational negotiations with China [6]. - Issues such as the Dutch government's intervention in Anshi Semiconductor, Binance's technical glitches during cryptocurrency price drops, the rise of international gold prices, and Australia's plan for a key - minerals agreement have attracted market attention [6][7]. 3.2 Morning Meeting Views on Main Varieties 3.2.1 Agricultural Products - Peanuts: On October 10, the peanut futures closed at 7786 yuan/ton, up 0.96%. With sufficient supply and weak demand, short - term attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities at the 7850 - 7950 pressure area [9]. - Sugar: On October 10, the sugar futures closed at 5496 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. With increasing supply from Brazil and the new northern hemisphere harvest season, and some domestic factors, it is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the 5450 - 5550 yuan/ton range [9]. - Corn: On October 10, the corn futures closed at 2125 yuan/ton, down 0.51%. With new grain coming onto the market and weak demand, the price is expected to decline, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [9]. - Pigs: The national average price of live pigs continued to decline, and the market is under pressure due to concentrated supply and weak consumption after the holiday [9]. - Eggs: The spot price of eggs is stable, but with slow inventory digestion and weak demand, short - selling futures and month - spread reverse arbitrage are recommended [9][11]. - Cotton: On October 10, the cotton futures closed at 13325 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. With increasing supply and weak demand, it is expected to maintain bottom - range trading [11]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea spot price is weakly stable. With sufficient supply and weak demand, the futures price is expected to be weak in the short - term [11]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price in Shandong is stable, but the futures contract is under pressure due to inventory increases during the holiday. Attention should be paid to the support at the 2400 - point level [11]. - Coking Coal: Supply is generally stable, but downstream procurement is cautious. The double - coking futures are under short - term pressure and are expected to fluctuate weakly [11]. 3.2.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: Due to Sino - US trade frictions and other factors, the prices of copper and aluminum fell on Friday night. Attention should be paid to the callback risk [13]. - Alumina: The supply is in surplus, and the 2601 contract is running weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as bauxite [13]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The demand is average after the holiday, and the inventory needs to be digested. The steel price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [13]. - Ferroalloys: The overall black - series rebounded after the holiday, but the double - silicon trend is weak. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to macro and Sino - US tariff issues [13]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price is in a downward trend. Attention should be paid to the support area of 70000 - 72000 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2.4 Options and Finance - Stock Index Options: On October 10, the three major A - share indexes declined. The market is affected by Sino - US trade issues and other factors. For trend investors, they can consider buying bullish call spreads when the market drops significantly; volatility investors can consider buying straddles or wide - straddles after the volatility drops [14]. - Stock Indexes: The short - term volatility of the A - share market has increased. The market is expected to open lower on Monday, and the technology sector will be under pressure. In the long - term, the core contradiction of the A - share market lies in domestic economic recovery and industrial upgrading [14][15][16].

Group 1 - The A-share market opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 2.49% and the ChiNext Index down 4.44%, particularly affected by sectors such as copper cables, CPO, humanoid robots, and solid-state batteries [1] - Huaxi Securities suggests that the impact of the current tariff shocks will be less severe than the April situation, with potential market stabilization expected due to China's improved market mechanisms [1] - China Galaxy Securities indicates that while short-term market volatility may increase due to external uncertainties and profit-taking, the core drivers of the current market trend remain unchanged, with liquidity expected to continue improving [2] Group 2 - Dongfang Securities notes that external negative factors will inevitably impact the market's short-term performance, but a recovery in the market's upward trend is anticipated in the future [3] - The upcoming APEC summit at the end of October is highlighted as a significant event that may influence the G2 countries' dynamics and market sentiment [1] - The focus on sectors with strong performance certainty and new policy directions is emphasized, particularly during the critical window of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the third-quarter report disclosures [2]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened down 2.5%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.43%. Major tech stocks, including Xiaomi and Alibaba, saw declines of over 4% and 3% respectively [1]. Short-term Market Sentiment - Huatai Securities indicated that the key to short-term trading direction lies in whether market sentiment has reached an extreme level. Their constructed sentiment indicator suggests there is still room for further release. The evolving path of trade friction over the next couple of weeks is expected to have high variance, leading to continued volatility. Tactical advice includes moderate defense and recommending high-quality cash flow assets in Hong Kong, with "TACO" trades to be executed in batches [1]. Medium to Long-term Outlook - China Galaxy Strategy believes that the escalation of Sino-U.S. trade friction has led to a decrease in investor risk appetite, resulting in a valuation correction for Hong Kong stocks. However, with domestic policies supporting stable growth and medium to long-term measures to stabilize the stock market, investor sentiment is expected to gradually stabilize. Currently, Hong Kong stock valuations are at a historically high level, and the market is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations [1]. Foreign Investment Dynamics - The Guotai Junan overseas strategy team reported that foreign capital dominates most sub-sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the internet, finance, and most consumer sectors. Conversely, the southbound investment has gained significant pricing power in a few sectors such as telecommunications, coal, petrochemicals, military, and semiconductors over the past two years [1].

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend despite potential escalations in trade tensions and the U.S. government shutdown crisis, with recent signals indicating a willingness for rational negotiations between the U.S. and China [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - Following President Trump's threat of significant tariff increases, U.S. stocks faced a sharp decline, and Chinese concept stocks also experienced substantial drops on October 10 [1] - On October 10, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.94%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.55%, and the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index decreased by 5.61%, with total trading volume across Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reaching 2.53 trillion yuan [2] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Analysts believe that the impact of the current tariff situation will be less severe than the previous April 7 incident due to market learning effects and enhanced market stabilization mechanisms in China [2] - Long-term perspectives suggest that the A-share market will continue its slow bull trend, driven by structural profit recovery and ongoing credit repair, while short-term adjustments present opportunities for strategic investments [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to be cautious of stocks with high financing balances and consider "high-low switching" strategies, as some companies are expected to outperform following the release of third-quarter reports [2] - The financing balance on October 10 was reported at 24.257 billion yuan, accounting for 2.52% of the circulating market value, indicating a slight decrease from the previous day's balance of 24.292 billion yuan [2]