Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the concept of "anti-involution" in the context of China's economic landscape, particularly focusing on the supply-side challenges that are more complex compared to the previous cycle from 2015 to 2018 [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Policy Signals**: There is a notable increase in policy signals regarding "anti-involution," with comparisons made to the supply-side reform 1.0 period. The current challenges differ significantly from those faced between 2015 and 2018 due to changes in industry competition and macroeconomic conditions [2][3]. 2. **Structural Reforms Needed**: To achieve lasting results in anti-involution, there is a consensus on the necessity for deeper structural reforms, including adjustments to local incentive mechanisms and tax reforms aimed at rebalancing towards consumption [3][10]. 3. **Recent Government Actions**: - On July 16, the State Council emphasized a combination of short-term and long-term measures to regulate competition in the new energy vehicle sector. - On July 18, the State Administration for Market Regulation held discussions with major food delivery platforms. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced supply-side reforms in ten key industries, including non-ferrous metals and petrochemicals [7]. 4. **Market Signals Ignored**: The report highlights that part of the competition's involution is due to ignored market signals, leading to continued capacity expansion despite falling prices [10]. 5. **Historical Context**: The report draws parallels between the current economic situation and past experiences, noting that anti-involution will not be a quick fix. The GDP deflator index has been negative for nine consecutive quarters since Q2 2023, indicating entrenched deflationary pressures [11]. 6. **Capacity Utilization and Industry Dynamics**: The report notes that the current overcapacity is largely in emerging industries, with 50-90% of capacity owned by the private sector, making administrative capacity reduction more challenging compared to the previous cycle [11][19]. 7. **Potential for Mergers and Acquisitions**: There is an expectation for large enterprises in the polysilicon industry to form acquisition funds to consolidate smaller firms, although execution remains uncertain due to declining demand and high inventory levels [12]. 8. **Gradual Progress Expected**: The report suggests that while some upstream industries may see moderate consolidation, the urgency for adjustment is lower compared to previous reforms [17][20]. 9. **Reform Timing and Delays**: The implementation of formal plans for capacity reduction may experience delays of 3-8 months, reflecting the complexities of the current economic environment compared to the 2015-2018 period [20]. Other Important Insights - **Demand Recovery Limitations**: The report indicates that the cyclical growth may fluctuate at lower levels due to debt and demographic challenges, with limited upside for demand recovery without decisive stimulus measures [18]. - **Need for Comprehensive Policy Mix**: The optimal policy combination would involve more aggressive demand rebalancing measures alongside faster structural reforms to achieve sustainable re-inflation [24]. - **Caution Against Overly Aggressive Measures**: The report warns that overly aggressive capacity reduction without sufficient demand support could lead to deeper deflation after a brief improvement in prices [24]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the industry and the anticipated direction of policy and economic reforms in China.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Focus**: Addressing deflation challenges and overcapacity through anti-involution policies Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Deflation Challenges**: China has faced deflation for nine consecutive quarters, with the GDP deflator remaining negative and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in deflation for 33 months. This situation is attributed to overcapacity in the context of high investment-to-GDP ratios [7][8][32] 2. **Policy Response**: The government is expected to intensify policy measures to combat overcapacity, with a focus on demand-side solutions rather than solely supply-side adjustments. Historical comparisons are made to the 2015-16 supply-side reforms that helped the economy recover from deflation [7][9][10] 3. **Investment Dynamics**: The report highlights that the current economic strategy relies heavily on manufacturing and infrastructure investments to maintain GDP growth, especially in light of the structural slowdown in the real estate sector [8][15][31] 4. **Private Sector Role**: A significant portion of overcapacity is found in emerging industries, with 50-90% of capacity in the private sector. This complicates the management of supply-side reforms [7][44] 5. **Need for Demand Support**: The report emphasizes that merely reducing supply will not suffice; boosting demand through social welfare spending and consumption support is crucial for sustainable economic recovery [10][42] Additional Important Insights 1. **Historical Context**: The report draws parallels between the current economic situation and past deflationary periods, noting that previous recoveries were driven by strong external demand and real estate market rebounds, which are currently lacking [11][41] 2. **Population Dynamics**: The declining population and structural issues in the real estate market are expected to hinder future economic growth and complicate demand management [23][26] 3. **Sector-Specific Overcapacity**: The report identifies specific sectors, such as solar energy and electric vehicles, where supply significantly exceeds demand, complicating efforts to manage overcapacity [45][48] 4. **Long-Term Growth Strategy**: A shift in growth strategy is suggested, moving from investment-driven growth to a more balanced approach that includes consumption as a key driver [42][46] Conclusion - The report outlines a complex landscape for the Chinese economy, where addressing deflation and overcapacity requires a multifaceted approach that includes both supply-side reforms and demand stimulation. The historical context and current challenges highlight the need for a strategic shift in economic policy to ensure sustainable growth moving forward [42][50]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the "anti-involution" policy in China, aimed at improving the Producer Price Index (PPI) and industrial enterprise profits, thereby enhancing the macroeconomic environment. This policy is expected to benefit from global inflation and the depreciation of the US dollar [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **PPI Improvement**: Significant improvement in PPI is anticipated in the first half of next year, with a possibility of turning positive in the second half, which may shift trading strategies from a "barbell" approach to an "inflation" strategy [1][3]. - **Currency Trends**: The US dollar is expected to continue its depreciation, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut interest rates, while Europe and Japan may end their rate cuts or increase rates. The Chinese yuan may strengthen beyond 7 [1][4]. - **Foreign Investment**: If domestic demand in China is boosted and price recovery expectations are clear, foreign capital may significantly enter the A-share market, favoring leading blue-chip stocks, but this would be unfavorable for the bond market [1][4]. - **Market Dynamics**: The anti-involution policy has triggered two waves of market trends, driven by PPI recovery, improved macroeconomic conditions, global inflation, and the interaction of domestic and foreign capital markets [1][5]. - **Policy Differences**: The anti-involution approach differs from previous supply-side reforms by addressing not only production capacity but also corporate behavior, local government actions, and industry self-regulation [1][8]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Debt Market Pressure**: The bond market is facing adjustment pressure due to heightened risk appetite and historically high valuations. Short-term, the bond market may experience a rebound after a sharp decline, but caution is advised against chasing prices during rebounds [1][12][13]. - **Cement Industry Response**: The cement industry is implementing measures such as capacity replacement and staggered production to address the anti-involution challenge, with expectations of an 8%-12% decline in supply this year [3][19]. - **Pork Industry Adjustments**: The pork industry is undergoing supply-side reforms, with major companies like Muyuan actively reducing breeding stock, which is expected to drive up pork prices and impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) positively [3][25][26]. - **Environmental Regulations**: New environmental standards in the pig farming sector are seen as a means to control production capacity without significant resource consumption, which could also positively affect CPI [27]. Conclusion - The anti-involution policy is a multifaceted approach aimed at stabilizing and improving various sectors of the economy, with significant implications for asset prices, foreign investment, and market dynamics. The bond market, cement industry, and pork sector are particularly highlighted for their responses to these policies.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the **photovoltaic (PV) industry**, particularly regarding supply-side reforms and price recovery, which are expected to drive significant improvements in profitability for companies involved in silicon material production [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Side Reform**: The government is committed to eliminating chaotic low-price competition, which is anticipated to lead to a recovery in silicon material prices to around **60,000 yuan per ton**. This price recovery is expected to enhance the profitability of companies in the sector [1][4]. - **Current Market Trends**: The PV industry has been experiencing an upward trend in polysilicon prices, despite high inventory levels. The expansion of new production capacity is limited due to energy consumption standards, which may restrict future growth in polysilicon production [1][4]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Investors are advised to focus on the silicon material segment, as it is poised for recovery. Other segments such as silicon wafers, batteries, and modules also present good investment opportunities, although their price recovery may be slower [4][5]. - **Long-Term Drivers**: The future growth of the PV industry will be driven by supply-side optimization and technological innovation, supported by government policies aimed at ensuring healthy market competition [5][6]. Additional Important Content - **Institutional Holdings**: As of June 30, institutional holdings in the PV sector are relatively low, indicating a favorable time for investment. The ongoing development of storage platforms and revenue processes is expected to sustain market growth [7]. - **Solid-State Battery Sector**: Attention should be given to the equipment and materials sectors within the solid-state battery field, with significant bidding expected in the second half of the year, particularly from leading companies [8]. - **Traditional Lithium Battery Materials**: The profitability of traditional lithium battery materials is under pressure, but there is potential for recovery as the logic of supply-side reform extends to other new energy sectors [9][10]. - **Hydropower Projects**: The **Yajiang Hydropower Station** project has commenced, attracting significant attention due to its potential impact on the market, particularly in construction materials and electrical equipment sectors [11][13]. Investment Directions - Key investment directions include the **PV anti-involution theme**, the **Yajiang Hydropower Station project**, and **critical pools**. Specific companies in the silicon material sector are expected to benefit from these trends [17][18].

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the steel industry, highlighting significant trends and challenges faced in the market during the first half of 2025 and projections for the remainder of the year [1][3][12]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Export Performance**: Steel exports reached a record high in the first half of the year, with expectations to exceed 100 million tons for the full year, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 10% due to strong overseas demand and China's cost advantages [1][3]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: Since July, new orders have significantly declined, which may lead to deteriorating export data in the fourth quarter [1][2]. 3. **Inventory Trends**: The black series industry chain has been in a continuous destocking phase since 2022, maintaining low to medium inventory levels across all segments, indicating a lack of speculative behavior in the market [1][5]. 4. **Profit Margins**: Electric arc furnace steel mills reported minimal profits, while blast furnace profits remained between 100 to 200 RMB, primarily benefiting from lower prices of thermal and coking coal [1][7]. 5. **Coking Coal Price Surge**: Coking coal prices have surged by 60% to 80%, with significant increases in market positions, yet no intervention from exchanges has been observed [1][9]. 6. **Policy Impact**: The "anti-involution" policy has shifted market trading logic, with expectations of supply-side reforms influencing prices of coking coal and polysilicon, although no significant production cuts in the steel and coal sectors have been noted [1][10][11]. 7. **Future Production Plans**: Iron output is expected to slightly increase in August, but the actual impact will depend on regulatory enforcement and whether coal mines and steel mills will genuinely reduce production [2][20]. 8. **Market Sentiment**: The market is currently in a speculative phase, with expectations of future demand not yet materializing into actual demand increases [20][31]. 9. **Regulatory Environment**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued guidelines for the steel industry, focusing on controlling growth, optimizing existing capacity, and phasing out outdated production [18]. 10. **Profitability Concerns**: While steel mills are currently profitable, downstream processing plants are experiencing narrowing margins, leading to a tense spot market situation [19][24]. Additional Important Insights - **Export Composition**: The export share of steel billet and rebar has significantly increased, while the share of rolled products has decreased due to anti-dumping measures in regions like Southeast Asia and South Korea [4]. - **Market Predictions**: The market is expected to enter a seasonal inventory accumulation phase starting in August, influenced by production changes rather than demand fluctuations [23]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The steel industry is anticipated to maintain reasonable profitability over the next few years, but the actual execution of supply-side reforms remains uncertain [33]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the steel industry.

Summary of Conference Call on Chemical Industry Industry Overview - The chemical industry is facing an inevitable supply-side reform due to the failure of traditional market clearing mechanisms, with large leading enterprises having strong risk resistance capabilities, resulting in price declines not triggering a wave of bankruptcies [1][6][8] - The chemical sector currently has low allocation from investors, and attention should be paid to upcoming new policies that may adjust investment strategies towards leading enterprises with technological advantages and strong cost control capabilities [1][7] Core Points and Arguments - In the first half of 2025, the chemical industry experienced a supply-demand imbalance, with product prices dropping to historical lows, yet there was no large-scale bankruptcy among midstream manufacturing enterprises, indicating limitations in the traditional demand-driven model [1][8] - Historical cycles show that effective policy intervention and structural adjustments can lead to industry recovery, as seen in the successful supply-side reforms in steel and coal industries in 2015, which serve as a reference for the current chemical industry [1][10][11] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has shown negative growth for 33 consecutive months, indicating a severe economic environment that requires structural adjustments and policy support for recovery [1][12] Key Data and Insights - Current construction projects have decreased by 5% year-on-year, and fixed asset investment has slowed, suggesting that the peak of capacity pressure has passed, but the digestion of new capacity will take time [5] - Industrial silicon prices fell to 7,000 RMB/ton in the first half of 2025, significantly below the historical minimum of 10,000 RMB/ton, reflecting the pressure on product prices despite stable oil and coal prices [5] - The chemical industry’s market share in global chemical product sales has reached 43%, with some products having market shares as high as 70%-90%, but trade barriers and anti-dumping measures limit further expansion [8] Investment Strategy Recommendations - Investors should increase allocation to the chemical sector, focusing on leading enterprises with strong product lines and those close to cyclical turning points, such as the polyester filament industry [7][18] - Short-term price increases are expected in products like glyphosate, organic silicon, industrial silicon, and soda ash, which are influenced by futures markets [18] - Traditional industries with significant potential for capacity reduction, such as soda ash, chlorine alkali, and carbon black, are currently experiencing severe losses but have substantial room for improvement as price regulations are implemented [18] Future Outlook - The chemical industry’s future development relies on supply-side reforms to reduce excess capacity and restore normal profitability levels, with low stock valuations indicating significant upside potential once positive stimuli occur [9][16] - Historical cycles suggest that effective policy interventions can lead to industry recovery, and the chemical sector has long-term investment potential due to its broad scope and numerous sub-industries [11][16] Government Policies - Since 2024, the Chinese government has implemented measures to address issues of excessive competition in various sectors, including chemical, with policies aimed at eliminating outdated capacity and improving energy consumption standards [15] - Upcoming policies are expected to target coal chemical, synthetic ammonia, and methanol industries first, gradually expanding to other sub-industries [16] Conclusion - The chemical industry is at a critical juncture, with potential for recovery through supply-side reforms and strategic investments in leading companies. Investors are encouraged to monitor policy developments and adjust their strategies accordingly to capitalize on emerging opportunities [7][17][20]

Summary of Zhongfu Industrial Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhongfu Industrial - **Industry**: Aluminum production and processing Key Points Industry and Company Developments - Zhongfu Industrial increased its electrolytic aluminum equity capacity by approximately 120,000 tons through the acquisition of shares in Yulian Group, which is a highlight given the current capacity constraints in the industry [2][3] - The adjustment of the electricity settlement scheme in Sichuan Province and the decline in alumina prices have reduced production costs, effectively expanding profit margins in the electrolytic aluminum segment [2][4] Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects net profits of approximately 1.98 billion yuan, 2.46 billion yuan, and 2.75 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, benefiting from capacity enhancements, cost optimization, and improvements in processing operations [2][7][30] - The employee stock ownership plan totals no more than 1.25 billion yuan, with a future three-year dividend plan distributing no less than 60% of the annual distributable profits, enhancing development confidence [2][8] Risks and Challenges - Zhongfu Industrial faces risks including fluctuations in raw material prices (alumina, coal), adjustments in electricity pricing, international aluminum price volatility, and potential power restrictions during drought periods [2][9] - The company has experienced challenges due to environmental regulations leading to production limits in Henan, resulting in asset efficiency and value declines [11][12] Operational Insights - The company has a complete industrial chain including coal, electricity, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing, with equity capacities of approximately 600,000 tons of coal, 900,000 kW of thermal power, and 690,000 tons of aluminum processing capacity [2][10] - The aluminum processing segment, which has a capacity of 690,000 tons, is primarily focused on can body and can material production, with 66% of output exported [5][25] Market Dynamics - The electrolytic aluminum industry has seen a supply-side reform since 2017, with a current utilization rate of 98.22%, indicating limited upward capacity [16] - Global aluminum demand has shifted, with reduced demand from the construction sector and increased demand from transportation and electricity sectors [20] Pricing and Profitability - The company anticipates a conservative price outlook due to recent tariff policies, with expected average prices of 20,000 yuan/ton for aluminum in 2025, and 3,200 yuan/ton for alumina [29] - The profitability of the electrolytic aluminum segment is sensitive to price changes, with a 1,000 yuan increase in aluminum prices potentially adding about 500 million yuan to profits [32] Future Outlook - The company is positioned for growth with a focus on enhancing production capacity and optimizing costs, while also navigating the challenges posed by market volatility and regulatory environments [2][30][31]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Express Delivery Industry**: The industry is responding to internal competition through price increases and regulatory intervention. Prices in Yiwu have gradually increased from 1.0 to 1.1 RMB per package after a drop to 1.0 RMB earlier in the year. Shentong's acquisition of Danying Express aims to enhance market share and reduce costs, focusing on single-package profit elasticity [1][4][5]. - **Aviation Industry**: Airlines are addressing price wars under the guidance of the Civil Aviation Administration by implementing minimum price restrictions and improving OTA disturbances. The summer travel season has seen poor passenger flow, prompting airlines to form alliances to stabilize prices and capacity. Recommended stocks include Huaxia Airlines and major state-owned airlines [1][6]. - **Bulk Commodities**: Jiayou International has benefited from a significant rise in coking coal futures prices, increasing from 720 to over 1,200 RMB. The company is also seeing growth in its African projects, suggesting a positive outlook for its stock [1][7]. - **Chemical Industry**: The CCPI price index has slightly increased, with certain products experiencing price rises due to accidents and policy expectations. Investment opportunities are identified in the chemical sector due to industry recovery, liquidity easing, and policy catalysts. The negative PPI growth is expected to end, with a focus on bottom-tier chemical blue-chip stocks and elastic varieties [1][8][9]. - **Pesticide and Polyester Industries**: The rise in glyphosate prices and increased demand for wheat herbicides are noted. The polyester filament industry is performing well, with inventory levels decreasing, indicating a potential for future growth in companies like Yangnong Chemical and Tongkun Co. [1][12]. Key Points and Arguments - **Express Delivery**: The price adjustments and regulatory measures are stabilizing the market, with Shentong's acquisition expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [1][4][5]. - **Aviation Response**: The implementation of minimum pricing and improved booking systems aims to mitigate the impact of OTA price wars, with a focus on maintaining operational stability during low demand periods [1][6]. - **Bulk Commodities Performance**: Jiayou International's stock is recommended due to its strong performance linked to rising coal prices and successful project expansions [1][7]. - **Chemical Sector Recovery**: The chemical industry is poised for recovery with expected PPI improvements and favorable policy changes, making it an attractive investment area [1][9]. - **Pesticide and Polyester Demand**: The increasing prices and demand in the pesticide sector, along with the strong performance in polyester production, highlight potential investment opportunities in these industries [1][12]. Additional Insights - **Coal Industry**: The coal sector has seen significant policy support, leading to an 8% increase in stock prices. The focus on supply-side reforms aims to balance the market through capacity control and monitoring [2][18][19]. - **Challenges and Opportunities in Coal**: The coal industry faces challenges in policy implementation but has opportunities for quicker supply-demand balance due to ongoing reforms and seasonal factors [21][23]. - **Future Outlook for Coal Market**: The long-term outlook for the coal market remains optimistic, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics driven by regulatory measures and seasonal demand [23]. - **Investment Selection**: Recommendations include focusing on bottom-tier chemical blue-chip stocks and high-elasticity varieties in the chemical sector, as well as monitoring developments in the pesticide and polyester industries for potential growth [10][11].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on the Electrolytic Aluminum Industry Industry Overview - The electrolytic aluminum industry benefits from energy consumption restrictions, limited production capacity, and slow overseas production, maintaining a favorable state without excessive competition or policy intervention in recent reforms [1][2] - Historical experiences indicate that policy interventions and demand stimulation can effectively control supply and sustain market conditions, as seen in the capacity elimination from 2016 to 2018 and the economic recovery post-COVID-19 in 2021 [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Sustained market conditions require terminal demand stimulation, such as investments in hydropower stations and infrastructure projects, similar to past measures like real estate demand relaxation and automobile purchase tax incentives [1][4][5] - The electrolytic aluminum sector is viewed as a dividend-like stock due to its rigid supply, increasing dividend rates, and high yields, with recommendations to focus on companies with stable dividends and high yield rates [1][6] - Recent commodity price increases are primarily driven by rising demand and energy consumption controls, leading to a 10% to 15% average reduction in output for high-energy-consuming products like steel, aluminum, and copper, with many prices reaching new highs since 2007 [1][7] Factors Influencing Aluminum Performance - Aluminum performs well in the current economic environment due to its high energy consumption, with production requiring 13,500 kWh per ton, consuming over 7% of China's total electricity [1][8] - The high cost of production and the strict control of overproduction in the aluminum sector limit its elasticity, making it less susceptible to fluctuations compared to other cyclical products [1][9] - Demand for non-ferrous metals, including aluminum and copper, is expected to grow due to applications in new energy vehicles, grid upgrades, and other sectors, maintaining resilience even as real estate demand weakens [1][9] Future Outlook and Recommendations - Over the next 3 to 5 years, aluminum and copper are recommended as key investment targets, with optimal buying opportunities during periods of gradual interest rate cuts in the U.S. [1][10] - The aluminum sector is expected to show strong resilience, with a projected annual growth rate of about 3%, while supply remains constrained due to domestic controls and slow overseas production [1][11] - Key recommended stocks include high-dividend companies such as China Hongqiao, Hongshuang Holdings, Tianshan Aluminum, and Zhongfu Industrial, which have high dividend rates and significant value potential [1][11] Additional Important Insights - The aluminum sector has seen a rapid recovery in cash flow from 20 billion to over 80 billion to 100 billion, with debt ratios decreasing from 60-70% to 30-40%, indicating a favorable environment for dividends [1][11] - The current price-to-book ratio is approximately 1.5, with annual dividend rates increasing steadily by 10%, highlighting significant marginal changes and a favorable dividend timing [1][11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy aims to repair corporate profits and reverse deflation expectations. Stainless steel and nickel prices have rebounded, but high stainless steel inventories and limited supply contraction restrict price increases. The nickel-iron price may be under continuous pressure, and the nickel price lacks support for a rebound. The price of the entire industry chain is expected to decline further [2][12][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stainless Steel Price - Stainless steel prices have a profit repair expectation due to the long - term negative profit margin. As of July 25, 2025, the profit margin of domestic self - produced high - nickel iron enterprises producing 304 stainless steel dropped to - 6.02%. However, high inventory and high production strategies limit price increase elasticity. As of July 17, 2025, the national mainstream market stainless steel 89 - warehouse social total inventory was 1148000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.69%. In July, the expected production reduction of 43 stainless steel plants was limited, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [5][6]. - In the long run, the weak demand side is the core reason for the low stainless steel price. Even if the supply side takes action, prices can only stop falling, not rise, until downstream demand significantly recovers [6]. Nickel - Iron and Nickel Price - The nickel - iron price may be under continuous pressure. Based on the weak stainless steel price forecast, the demand for nickel - iron is expected to have limited recovery, and the cost support for nickel - iron will weaken as the nickel ore supply is expected to loosen. The 2025 RKAB approved quota for Indonesian nickel ore is 364 million tons [12]. - The nickel price lacks support for a rebound. The short - term market price is still anchored to the RKEF conversion cost. The high premium of refined nickel over nickel - iron may lead to some production lines switching from nickel - iron to high - grade nickel matte, increasing the potential supply of refined nickel and dragging down the nickel price [12]. Summary - Affected by the "anti - involution" action, nickel and stainless steel prices have rebounded, but the high stainless steel inventory and limited supply contraction make it difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The ore price is expected to continue to decline, driving down the price center of the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to stainless steel production reduction and demand - stimulating policies [14].