以下文章来源于阿尔法工场金融家 ，作者金妹妹 阿尔法工场金融家 . 追踪保险银行业圈内动态，剖析最新风向，分享有料、有价值的"内行人"洞察见解。 作者 | 金妹妹 来源 | 阿尔法工场金融家 导语 ：万能险终结高保底时代，个险刮起"报行合一"旋风。 在寿险"最冷开门红"寒意未散之时，监管短时间内连发两道文件，剑指寿险两大柱石——万能险和 个险代理人队伍。 4月25日，监管发布《关于加强万能型人身保险监管有关事项的通知》（简称"14号文"）而在一周 之前，4月18日，国家金融监管总局官网发布《关于推动深化人身保险行业个人营销体制改革的通 知》（简称"13号文"）。 监管核心管理思路是降低风险。其实现途径是从"三差"入手——死差上，主要是此前调整生命表； 利差上，主要是预定利率动态调整机制；费差上，管控行业整体销售费用过高的问题。 在利率不断下行之时，监管为压降行业负债端成本，可谓用心良苦。 但，也或是刮骨疗毒。 金妹妹从第一个发布财报的中国平安（601318.SH）的代理人数据中发现，2025年3月底寿险代理人 数为33.8万，相比去年末的36.3万人，环比下降了6.9%。"清虚"代理人的风，还在继续吹。 同时 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of April 28, 2025, in the stock of credit bonds, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. The yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, while the yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees. In financial bonds, the yields of most varieties have increased, with leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools having relatively high valuation yields and spreads [3][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 General Situation of Stock Credit Bonds - As of April 28, 2025, the valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds in the stock of credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, especially those of varieties over 1 year, with adjustments generally within 10bp. The yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased by 10.2bp and 4.3bp respectively. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees. In financial bonds, the varieties with high valuation yields and spreads are leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools. Compared with last week, the yields of most financial bond varieties have increased [3][8]. 3.2 Urban Investment Bonds 3.2.1 Public Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of public urban investment bonds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces are both below 2.6%. Urban investment bonds with yields exceeding 4.5% are found in prefecture - level and district - county - level areas of Guizhou. In other regions, the spreads in Yunnan, Gansu, Inner Mongolia and other places are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the performance of public urban investment bonds has differentiated among different terms. The average decline of varieties within 1 year is close to 0.2BP, while the yields of medium - and long - term bonds have mostly increased. The varieties with relatively large yield declines include non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Guizhou with a term of 2 - 3 years, perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Shaanxi within 1 year, non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Yunnan with a term of 1 - 2 years, and non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Liaoning within 1 year [2][13]. 3.2.2 Private Urban Investment Bonds - The weighted average valuation yields of private urban investment bonds in coastal provinces such as Shanghai, Zhejiang, Guangdong, and Fujian are below 3.1%. Varieties with yields higher than 4.5% are found in prefecture - level cities of Guizhou, Yunnan, and Liaoning. The spreads in Shaanxi, Hebei, Gansu and other places are also relatively high. Compared with last week, the proportion of yield increases of private urban investment bonds is relatively high, but there are also many cases of yield declines in varieties within 1 year. The varieties with relatively large yield declines include non - perpetual bonds of provincial - level in Shandong within 1 year, perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Jiangxi with a term of 2 - 3 years, non - perpetual bonds of prefecture - level cities in Liaoning within 1 year, and non - perpetual bonds of district - county - level areas in Liaoning with a term of 2 - 3 years, with declines all exceeding 15bp [2][22]. 3.3 Industrial Bonds - The valuation yields and spreads of private enterprise industrial bonds in the stock of credit bonds are generally higher than those of other varieties. Compared with last week, the yields of most non - financial and non - real estate industrial bonds have increased, especially those of varieties over 1 year, with adjustments generally within 10bp. The yields of private and public non - perpetual bonds of private enterprises within 1 year have decreased by 10.2bp and 4.3bp respectively. In real estate bonds, except for private bonds within 1 year and public non - perpetual bonds within 2 years, the yields of other varieties have increased to varying degrees [3][8]. 3.4 Financial Bonds - The varieties with high valuation yields and spreads in financial bonds are leasing company bonds and urban and rural commercial bank capital supplementary tools. Compared with last week, the yields of most financial bond varieties have increased. Specifically, in leasing bonds, the yields of public non - perpetual bonds with a term of 1 - 3 years have increased by more than 5bp, while the yields of private perpetual varieties within 1 year have declined significantly. In commercial financial bonds, the yields of national and joint - stock banks and urban commercial banks within 1 year have slightly decreased, while the bonds of other terms have generally adjusted, with the 1 - 2 year term being the period with the largest correction. The yields of bank sub - bonds have basically increased, but except for the perpetual bonds of rural commercial banks with a term of 2 - 3 years and the secondary bonds of joint - stock banks with a term of 3 - 5 years, the yield increases of other varieties are below 5bp. In addition, private non - perpetual and public perpetual sub - bonds of securities companies within 1 year are favored [4][8].

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title] 信用表现偏弱 ——信用利差周报（4/27） 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 4 月 21 日-4 月 25 日债券收益率多数上行，信用利差多数跟随走阔。收益率方面，0.5-1Y 证券 公司次级债上行幅度超 3bp，1Y 产业债上行幅度超 1bp。2-3Y 城投债、产业债、商业银行二 级资本债、证券公司普通债多数上行幅度超 3bp，2-3Y 商业银行永续债上行幅度超 1bp。5Y 产 业债、商业银行二级资本债、证券公司次级债、证券公司永续债上行幅度超 3bp，2-5Y 城投债 多数上行幅度超 4bp。信用利差方面，1-2Y 城投债、产业债信用利差多数走阔超 1bp。3Y 城 投债、产业债、商业银行二级资本债信用利差多数走阔超 2bp。5Y 商金债信用利差收窄超 2bp。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% ...

为满足债券发行要求，他们打造虚增10亿元营收的"纸上帝国" 在前不久最高检发布的第五十五批指导性案例中，上海市检察院第一分院、上海市检察院办理的甲皮业 有限公司、周某等欺诈发行债券、马某出具证明文件重大失实案披露，为满足债券发行要求，公司直接 用PS做起了假账，虚增上亿元营业收入和净利润，最终因无力偿付债券本息，造成投资人重大经济损 失。 面对1.5亿元投资款无法兑付的严重后果，揪出造假源头后，更大的挑战摆在面前：专业审计机构的把 关为何失灵？ 央行发布3月份金融市场运行情况 4月29日，中国人民银行发布3月份金融市场运行情况。3月份，债券市场共发行各类债券87356.6亿元。 国债发行12786.3亿元，地方政府债券发行9788.0亿元，金融债券发行10226.4亿元，公司信用类债券发 行13335.2亿元，信贷资产支持证券发行186.0亿元，同业存单发行40686.2亿元。 第二批810亿元超长期特别国债下达 近日，国家发展改革委印发通知，会同财政部及时向地方追加下达今年第二批810亿元超长期特别国债 资金，继续大力支持消费品以旧换新。下一步，国家发展改革委将充分发挥"两新"部际协调机制作用， 强化统筹推 ...

宏观日报 | 2025-04-29 关注上游价格受贸易战不确定性影响 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注能源中游基础设施相关通知推行。 1）国家能源局发布关于促进能源领域民营经济发展若干举措 的通知。通知提到，支持投资建设能源基础设施。支持民营企业参股投资核电项目，建立健全长效工作机制。支 持民营企业投资建设水电、油气储备设施、液化天然气接收站等基础设施项目，支持民营企业参与油气管网主干 线或支线项目。 上游：1）能源：国际油价受关税影响持续震荡。2）有色：铜、锌、镍受关税影响价格震荡。3）建材：水泥、建 材价格持续回落。4）农业：鸡蛋价格上涨。 中游：1）化工：PTA开工率回升；PX开工率近期回落；聚酯、尿素开工率处今年高位。2）基建：沥青开工率来 到近三年低位。 下游：1）地产：一、二线城市商品房销售与去年同期持平，处近三年低位。2）服务：国际航班班次增加；国内 航班班次较同期减少。 市场定价：医药生物、化工行业信用利差近期小幅回落。 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 服务行业：五一假期机票价格略降。 1）数据显示，截至4月18日，"五一"假期民航国内机票预订均价约881元，较 2019年同期提升11.1 ...

在寿险"最冷开门红"寒意未散之时，监管短时间内连发两道文件，剑指寿险两大柱石——万能险和个险代理人队伍。 4月25日，监管发布《关于加强万能型人身保险监管有关事项的通知》（简称"14号文"）而在一周之前，4月18日，国家金融监管总局官网发布《关于推动 深化人身保险行业个人营销体制改革的通知》（简称"13号文"）。 监管核心管理思路是降低风险。其实现途径是从"三差"入手——死差上，主要是此前调整生命表；利差上，主要是预定利率动态调整机制；费差上，管控 行业整体销售费用过高的问题。 在利率不断下行之时，监管为压降行业负债端成本，可谓用心良苦。 但，也或是刮骨疗毒。 金妹妹从第一个发布财报的中国平安（601318.SH）的代理人数据中发现，2025年3月底寿险代理人数为33.8万，相比去年末的36.3万人，环比下降了 6.9%。"清虚"代理人的风，还在继续吹。 同时，金融监管总局发布的数据显示，今年前3个月保险业实现人身险原保险保费收入1.79万亿元，增速仅有0.24%。 而今寿险再迎来剧变，究竟几家欢喜几家愁？ 01 "3.0%保底"终结 14号文最被广泛讨论的点是，保险公司应明确万能险最低保证利率，允许保险公司 ...

证券研究报告|行业点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 28 日 [Table_Title] 保险业 2025Q1 经营数据点评：财险增长强 劲，寿险降幅收窄 [Table_Title2] 保险Ⅱ 行业评级: 推荐 [Table_Summary] 分析与判断: ► 人身险：一季度寿险累计保费降幅逐月收窄 2025Q1 人身险公司原保费收入 16,590 亿元，同比-0.3%。其中寿险/意外险/健康险原保费收入分别为 13,832/ 117/ 2,641 亿元，分别同比-1.0%/ -4.5%/ +3.7%。3 月单月，人身险公司原保费收入 4,639 亿元，同 比+6.3%，其中寿险/意外险/健康险原保费收入 3,623/ 47/ 969 亿元，分别同比+6.9%/ -9.0%/ +5.0%。3 月寿 险增速环比 2 月增速提升 4.5pp。2025 年 1-3 月保户投资款新增交费（以万能险为主）2,605 亿元，同比- 7.8%，其中 3 月单月同比-12.7%；1-3 月投连险独立账户新增交费 34 亿元，同比+4.5%，其中 3 月单月同比 +24.8%。我们认为，2025Q1 ...

Core Insights - The offshore bond market for Chinese entities has seen a significant recovery in Q1 2025, with issuance increasing by nearly 70% compared to the end of last year [1][2] - The net financing gap has narrowed dramatically from -21.385 billion USD in Q1 2024 to -5.363 billion USD in Q1 2025 [2] Group 1: Issuance and Financing - In Q1 2025, a total of 301 offshore bonds were issued, amounting to approximately 72.669 billion USD, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.14% in quantity and 67.50% in scale [2] - By bond type, government bonds accounted for about 20.4 billion USD (38%), local government bonds for about 15.4 billion USD (24%), financial bonds for about 7.5 billion USD (12%), real estate bonds for about 4.169 billion USD (6%), and industrial bonds for about 12.6 billion USD (20%) [2] Group 2: Currency and Issuance Methods - The issuance included 87 offshore RMB bonds, 141 USD bonds, 68 HKD bonds, 3 EUR bonds, 1 AUD bond, and 1 JPY bond [3] - The majority of bonds were directly issued (202), with 46 being guaranteed issues, and various combinations of issuance methods were also utilized [3] Group 3: Market Conditions and Costs - Despite the recovery in issuance, financing costs in the offshore market remain higher than in the domestic market, with USD bond issuance rates approximately 3 percentage points higher than domestic credit bonds [4] - The average issuance rate for domestic credit bonds is around 2.2%, while the cost for Chinese USD bonds ranges from 3.6% to 8.5%, with an average of 5.1% [4] Group 4: Market Performance - The overall return rate for Chinese USD bonds in Q1 2025 was 2.49%, with investment-grade and high-yield bonds returning 2.70% and 3.85% respectively [5] - The real estate sector showed the highest return rate at 6.51%, followed by financial and local government bonds at 1.85% and 1.74% respectively [5] Group 5: Future Outlook and Debt Pressure - There remains significant debt repayment pressure in the coming year, particularly in Q3 2025, with repayment needs of 13.193 billion, 11.904 billion, and 24.046 billion USD [11] - The total repayment demand for Chinese offshore bonds in 2025 is projected to be at a three-year high, with 199.2 billion and 163.7 billion USD maturing in 2025 and 2026 respectively [14]

Core Viewpoint - The regulatory authority has implemented strict regulations on universal life insurance (ULI) to prevent risks associated with low interest rates and to protect consumer interests, effective from May 1, 2025 [1][2][3] Regulatory Changes - The new regulations prohibit the design of ULI products, except for whole life insurance, endowment insurance, and annuity insurance, to strengthen the insurance product's protection attributes and avoid misuse for short-term financial management [3][4] - The insurance term for ULI must not be less than five years, addressing the issue of short-term products that have been prevalent in the market [5][6] Market Impact - The current interest rate environment, with five-year fixed deposit rates at 1.55% and ten-year government bond rates at 1.67%, has pressured life insurance companies as their asset yields decline while liability costs remain rigid [2][4] - The regulations are expected to lead to a restructuring of ULI products, with existing products needing to comply by April 30, 2026, and new products developed under the new rules starting May 1, 2025 [4][6] Consumer Protection - The regulations aim to reduce misleading sales practices and enhance the insurance protection function of ULI, ensuring that consumers are adequately informed about risks and product features [1][4] - Insurance companies are required to provide clear terms regarding additional premium payments and must inform customers of any adjustments to the minimum guaranteed interest rates [4][6] Investment Management - The regulations emphasize the need for insurance companies to establish sound investment strategies for ULI accounts, including strict controls on investment concentration and risk exposure [6][7] - Specific limits are set on investments in single unlisted companies and equity investment funds to mitigate risks associated with asset-liability mismatches and liquidity [7]

▍ 上 周债市震荡偏弱。 2 0 2 5年4月2 1日至2 0 2 5年4月2 5日，债市震荡偏弱。1 0年期国债收益率从上周的1 . 6 4 9 3%变动至1 . 6 6 0 6%；1 0年期国开债收益 率从上周的1 . 6 8 1 0%变动至1 . 6 9 6 1%；TS、TF、T、TL主力合约收盘价分别变动- 0 . 1 5 /- 0 . 3 0 /- 0 . 2 6 /- 0 . 0 2元。 文 ｜ 明明 周成华 丘远航 赵诣 在贸易冲突背景下，预计从4月PMI开始，数据层面将逐步反映压力，适时降准降息时点临近，收益率曲线先牛陡后牛平的概率 更大。 ▍ 风险因素： 美国关税政策继续反复；货币政策、财政政策超预期；央行公开市场操作投放超预期；信用违约事件频发等。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于 2025年4月27日 发布的《 每周债券策略聚焦20250426—适时降准降息窗口临近 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因对报 告的摘编而产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 ▍ 具体看单日表现。 周一，LPR维持不变，现券收益率有所上行。周二，税 期尾声，资金利率回落，债市修复。周三 ...