Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market's fundamentals have not improved, and the ore price is under pressure. The short - term view of iron ore 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and weakening. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line [1]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakening. Under the influence of production restrictions, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market are not alleviated. The weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which will still suppress the ore price. Although the arrival of ore at domestic ports and the shipments of overseas miners have decreased month - on - month, they are still at relatively high levels within the year, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. The ore supply remains high. Arbitrage funds leaving the market drive the ore price to rise from a low level, but the demand for ore is weakening while the supply remains high, so the ore price is still prone to decline under pressure [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For iron ore 2601, the short - term view is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and weakening. The suggestion is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic being that the fundamentals have not improved and the ore price is under pressure [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand situation of iron ore is deteriorating. Terminal ore consumption is decreasing due to production restrictions, and the steel market's industrial contradictions persist. The weak demand will continue to limit the ore price. Although the arrival of ore at domestic ports and overseas shipments have decreased, they are still at relatively high levels. Domestic ore production is weakly stable, and the supply remains high. The departure of arbitrage funds has led to a low - level rebound in the ore price, but with weakening demand and high supply, the ore price is likely to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The upward movement of SCFIS has boosted the sentiment of long - position holders, and the futures market is in a state of oscillating operation under the game between long and short positions. The main contract may be in the process of bottom - building, and the focus is on the direction of spot freight rates. Tariff issues have a marginal effect, and close attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight prices [1][3]. - With the sharp rise of the spot index driving the far - month contracts, risk - preferring investors are advised to enter the 02 contract in advance and focus on the freight rate support logic in December [1]. Content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Freight Index Information - On November 3, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1504.80 points, up 24.5% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1329.71 points, up 4.9% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1053.62 points, down 4.24% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 911.73 points, down 5.58% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1349.1 points, down 7.14% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1495.10 points, down 3.6 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1323 USD/TEU, down 1.6% from the previous period; the SCFI price for the US West route was 2212 USD/FEU, down 16.4% from the previous period [2]. - On November 7, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1058.17 points, up 3.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1366.85 points, up 3.3% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 814.14 points, up 5.4% from the previous period [2]. Economic Data - In October, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3]. - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's Manufacturing PMI in October was 45.9 (expected 45.1, previous value 45); the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 51.2 (expected 51.5, previous value 51.4); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 49.7 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.6). The Eurozone's Sentix Investor Confidence Index in October had a previous value of - 9.2 and a forecast value of - 8.5 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the Manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [3]. Futures Market Information - On November 11, the main contract 2512 closed at 1746.1, down 1.87%, with a trading volume of 32,200 lots and an open interest of 25,200 lots, a decrease of 1475 lots from the previous day [3]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, the margin of the company for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was 100 lots [4]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: As the main contract retreats and the far - month contracts are strong, risk - preferring investors are advised to lightly test long positions in the EC2602 contract in the 1550 - 1600 range, pay attention to the spot trend, not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or lightly attempt [4]. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then judge the subsequent direction [4].

1. Core Views - Today, the main contract of Shanghai Copper oscillated around 86,700 yuan. The weak US dollar recently is favorable for copper prices. The main contract twice failed to break through the 87,000 yuan mark, showing some pressure. Monitor the multi - short game at this level [7]. - Shanghai Aluminum increased in volume and price, especially in the afternoon. The main contract broke through the November 2024 high and approached 22,000 yuan. Despite the strong price, the spot discounts of both Shanghai and LME Aluminum continued to decline, indicating that although inventory is low, the spot is not in short supply. The short - term rise may be due to low valuation and expected supply reduction and demand increase overseas. Pay attention to the support at the 5 - day moving average [8]. - Shanghai Nickel decreased in volume and price, with the main contract breaking below 119,000 yuan. Amid the strong performance of the non - ferrous sector, the weak nickel price reflects its fundamental weakness. Technically, watch the support at the June low [9]. 2. Industry Dynamics - Citi predicts that the average copper price will reach $12,000 per ton by the second quarter of 2026, with an optimistic estimate of $14,000 per ton [11]. - On November 10, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 616,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [12]. - On November 12, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 118,400 - 122,500 yuan per ton, with an average price of 120,450 yuan per ton, a decrease of 850 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 100 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The premium range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 to 300 yuan per ton [13]. 3. Related Charts Copper - The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, and month - to - month spread [14][15][16]. Aluminum - The report presents charts of aluminum basis, month - to - month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report shows charts of nickel basis, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, month - to - month spread, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - As the new crops in the Northern Hemisphere and domestic cane sugar are about to be launched, Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The large volume of raw sugar imports and the upcoming concentrated sugar - cane crushing in Guangxi may bring selling pressure, but the current futures price is close to the domestic sugar - making cost, so it is expected to decline resistantly before the new domestic sugar is launched [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data - **Domestic Spot and Futures Data**: On November 11, 2025, the price in Nanning warehouse, Guangxi was 5760 with a rise of 30; in Rizhao, Shandong, it was 5820 with no change. SR01 was 5480, SR05 was 5411 with a rise of 6, and SR01 - 05 was 69 with a decline of 1. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1382 with a rise of 0.0004 [4]. - **International Data**: The ice raw sugar主力 was 14.26 with no change, the London white sugar主力 was 573 with a rise of 3, and the Brent crude oil主力 was 63.94 with no change. The exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818 with a rise of 0.0212, and the rupee against the RMB was 0.084 with a decline of 0.0004 [4]. Supply Analysis - **Import Supply**: The current large volume of raw sugar imports and the gradually released pressure of imported sugar arriving at ports, with an import cost of 5300 - 5400, are suppressing the futures market [4]. - **Domestic Supply**: Yunnan sugar mills started the first pressing two days ago, and Guangxi sugar mills are expected to start concentrated crushing in mid - to - late November, which may create new selling pressure [4].

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 巴西未来十五天降雨预计略低于正常水平。目前现货油厂销售压力下降，存在挺价 | | 豆粕 | 情绪偏多 | 心理。中美会晤结果显示，美豆进口关税问题仍未得到有效解决。贸易成本叠加巴 西种植升水可能，市场看多情绪炒作，由于自身缺乏明显利多驱动，追多谨慎，技 | | ★ | | | | | | 术操作对待。关注逢低看多机会为宜。关注美农报告，关注巴西大豆种植情况。 | | | | 菜粕港口库存同比偏高，下游消费淡季，施压盘面。但进口预估偏低，且近日加方 | | 菜粕 | 情绪偏多 | 表示暂无法取消对中国关税，导致市场对于中加贸易关税改善预期降温。市场情绪 | | ★ | | 偏多，但由于当下自身基本面因素，主力及近月合约反弹空间或受限。关注中加贸 | | | | 易后续进展。 | | 棕榈油 | | 棕榈油阶段性进入供需转弱状态，10 月累库，11 月马棕榈油前 10 日出口数据环比 | | | 暂止跌整理 | 较弱，累库预期依然存在，棕榈油看多仍需谨慎。关注进口利润波动。 | | ★ | | | | | | 美豆收获上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the pig market, with a trend strength of -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 11,980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Sichuan's is 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; and Guangdong's is 12,560 yuan/ton, also unchanged [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of pig2601, pig2603, and pig2605 are 11,755 yuan/ton, 11,465 yuan/ton, and 12,065 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 200 yuan/ton, 90 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of pig2601, pig2603, and pig2605 are 103,800 lots, 28,435 lots, and 19,009 lots respectively, with increases of 27,891 lots, 9,977 lots, and 7,941 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 139,553 lots, 113,296 lots, and 61,762 lots respectively, with increases of 9,034 lots, 4,935 lots, and 657 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig2601, pig2603, and pig2605 are 225 yuan/ton, 515 yuan/ton, and - 85 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 100 yuan/ton, - 10 yuan/ton, and - 95 yuan/ton. The spreads between pig1 - 3 and pig3 - 5 are 290 yuan/ton and - 600 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year decreases of 110 yuan/ton and 85 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Market Information - In September, the national feed production was 30.36 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 5% [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is -1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: The stock index futures are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, while the bond market sentiment is not weak, but the upward space of bond futures is limited [20][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The protein meal has support in the near - term, while the long - term is under pressure. The sugar price is expected to be volatile. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage. Corn and its starch are in a strong - side volatile state. The pig price is expected to be under pressure, and peanuts are in a short - term bottom - shock state. Egg prices may have limited upside, and apple prices are mainly stable. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [26][31][35][38][42][46][51][54]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are in a range - bound state. Coking coal and coke are expected to be adjusted in the short - term and offer buying opportunities after a pullback. Iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective, and ferroalloys' previous short positions can be reduced [57][60][63][64]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Copper is in a short - term shock state. Alumina prices may rebound slightly but face pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to be stronger in a volatile state. Zinc requires attention to export volume, lead is in a range - bound state, and nickel prices are expected to weaken in a volatile manner [67][70][74][77][79][86][89][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures followed the spot market to strengthen. The trading volume and open interest of some varieties changed. The market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The trading strategies include not chasing high, building long positions on dips, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads on dips [19][20][21]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures closed mostly higher on Monday. The market funds tightened, but the bond market showed resilience. The upward space of bond futures is limited. The trading strategies include waiting and holding short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread and considering long positions on the T - contract current - next quarter spread [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The export prospects of US soybeans have improved, providing support. The domestic soybean meal has supply uncertainties, with strong near - term support and long - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a shock state [26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be in a range - bound state, with limited downward space due to policy support [31]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: In October, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased as expected. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage, and there may be a technical rebound in the short - term [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures are in a strong - side volatile state [36][38]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is generally in a downward trend. The overall supply pressure still exists, and the pig price is expected to be under pressure [39][40]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 01 contract is in a short - term bottom - shock state. The 05 contract can be considered for short - term long positions [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand for eggs has improved slightly, but the supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the upside space of egg prices is limited [44][46]. - **Apples**: New apples are gradually being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The inventory is expected to be lower than last year, but the current futures price is at a high level, so it is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton picking is coming to an end. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [53][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of rebar is increasing, and the steel price is in a range - bound state. The supply and demand structure suppresses the steel price, but there is support at the bottom due to environmental protection [57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market drive is not obvious in the short - term, and it is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner. In the medium - term, there are buying opportunities after a pullback [60]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is weakening, and the supply is at a high level. The iron ore price is expected to be in a high - level bearish operation [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand of ferroalloys are weakening at the margin, but the cost provides support. The previous short positions can be reduced [64]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The market's liquidity expectation has improved, and precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [67]. - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a shock state. The supply is tightening, and the demand is warming up [70][71][73]. - **Alumina**: The supply and demand of alumina are still in significant surplus. The price may rebound slightly, but it faces pressure from the basis [77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There are still concerns about overseas supply, and the aluminum price is expected to be stronger in a volatile manner [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Affected by the cost and demand, the cast aluminum alloy price will maintain a strong - side volatile state with the aluminum price [85]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the export volume of zinc [86]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a range - bound state, and it may decline with the increase of social inventory [89][90]. - **Nickel**: The cost of nickel has loosened, and the nickel price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [93].

谨 慎 看 空 谨 慎 看 空 中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | 12 | 淡季供给过剩仍为核心驱动，油价上方承压。11 月 2 日，OPEC+计划于 月继续扩产 13.7 万桶/日，并计划于明年初暂停扩产；供需方面，消费 | | 原油 | | | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 淡季开启，OPEC+仍在扩产周期，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行 | | | | 压力较大，重点关注原油边际产量变化。策略：空单持有，并购买看涨期 | | | | 权做好风控。 | | | | 成本端油价震荡偏弱，液化气上方承压。美国制裁俄罗斯风险释放，油价 | | LPG | | 回调，沙特再度下调 CP 合同价，成本端利空；供需基本面改善，供给量 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 小幅下降，下游化工开工率提高，需求端韧性较强；库存端，港口与厂内 | | | | 库存均下降。策略：空单持有。 | | | | 社会库存缓慢去化，现货延续下跌，基差走弱。装置陆续重启，国内开工 | | L | 空头延续 | 季节性回升，进口量集中到港，国内外供 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of soybean meal is expected to follow the upward trend of US soybeans and rebound, while the price of soybean No.1 is expected to fluctuate in a rebound [1]. - The trend strength of soybean meal is +1, indicating a relatively strong upward trend, while the trend strength of soybean No.1 is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - DCE soybean No.1 2601 closed at 4,116 yuan/ton during the day session, down 9 yuan (-0.22%), and 4,138 yuan/ton during the night session, up 24 yuan (+0.58%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3,063 yuan/ton during the day session, up 12 yuan (+0.39%), and 3,051 yuan/ton during the night session, unchanged (+0.00%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 01 closed at 1,127.5 cents/bushel, up 10.25 cents (+0.92%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 319.1 dollars/short ton, up 2.1 dollars (+0.66%) [1]. - **Spot Prices**: - In Shandong, the spot price of soybean meal (43%) was 3,010 - 3,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of M2601 + 10 to +60, and the price was flat to up 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In East China, the spot price was 3,010 - 3,100 yuan/ton, with a basis of M2601 + 10, and the price was flat to up 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - In South China, the spot price was 3,030 - 3,120 yuan/ton, with a basis of M2601 + 10 to +40, and the price was flat to up 10 yuan compared to the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Data**: - The trading volume of soybean meal was 15.75 million tons per day on the previous trading day, compared to 4.7 million tons two days ago [1]. - The inventory of soybean meal was not available on the previous trading week, compared to 105.93 million tons two weeks ago [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On November 10, CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive day, mainly due to the progress of the US government shutdown and the expectation of the recovery of US soybean exports to China [3]. - The market is waiting for the USDA's November supply and demand report, which will include the first US crop production forecast since mid - September [3]. - The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is 61%, behind last year's 67% due to irregular rainfall [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The sentiment for soybean meal is bullish, but there is a lack of obvious bullish drivers, so it should be treated as a short - term bullish technical play [1]. - The sentiment for rapeseed meal is also bullish, but the rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1]. - Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand, and the price is in a low - level consolidation [1]. - Soybean oil is in a short - term consolidation, with a lack of strong bullish drivers [1]. - Rapeseed oil is expected to stop falling and rebound in the short - term [1]. - Cotton prices are under upward pressure, but there may be short - term low - buying opportunities [1]. - The outlook for red dates is cautiously bearish, with the disk expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - The outlook for live pigs is a short - term rebound, and it is recommended to short on rebounds for near - month contracts [1]. Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - Brazil's rainfall in the next 15 days is expected to be slightly lower than normal. The sales pressure of spot oil mills has decreased, and they have a price - supporting mentality. The US - China tariff issue on soybean imports remains unresolved. The latest weekly inventory has decreased month - on - month. The futures price of the main contract closed at 3063 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.16% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3104 yuan/ton, up 6.29 yuan or 0.20% [1][3]. Rapeseed Meal - The port inventory of rapeseed meal is high, and it is the off - season for downstream consumption, which puts pressure on the market. Canada's inability to cancel tariffs on China has cooled the market's expectation of improved Sino - Canadian trade tariffs. The futures price of the main contract closed at 2527 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.47% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2617.37 yuan/ton, down 9.47 yuan or 0.36% [1][5]. Palm Oil - Palm oil has entered a stage of weakening supply - demand, with expected continuous inventory accumulation in October and November in Malaysia. However, the inverted import profit may lead to insufficient imports in December and January. The futures price of the main contract closed at 8690 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.35% from the previous day. The national average price is 8688 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan or 0.67% [1][8]. Cotton - In the international market, the increased supply from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries puts pressure on prices, while India's MSP provides some support. In the domestic market, the new cotton harvest is almost complete, and the commercial inventory is higher than the same period in previous years. The downstream demand is weak, but the sales progress is relatively fast, which may relieve the hedging pressure faster than in previous years. The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1][10]. Red Dates - The market has seen a large - scale harvest, and the new - season output is gradually becoming clear. With high - inventory old dates, the downstream acceptance of new products is limited. The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9585 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.05% from the previous day [1][14]. Live Pigs - In November, the planned slaughter volume has slightly decreased, but there is still some pressure due to weight gain. The supply pressure is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. The futures price of the main contract (lh2601) closed at 11955 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.76% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 12020 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.08% [1][17].