Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, and the aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The report suggests paying attention to macro - policy, downstream demand, macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - **Logic**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period during the Spring Festival, with an estimated impact on the total building steel output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills have different shutdown schedules, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities decreased by 40.3% month - on - month and increased by 43.2% year - on - year. The finished products market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with pessimistic market sentiment, and the price center of gravity continues to move down. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2][3] - **Viewpoint**: The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner [3] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - policy and downstream demand [3] Aluminum Ingots - **Logic**: Overseas data has increased the optimistic sentiment towards interest rate cuts, providing macro - level support. Domestically, for domestic bauxite, the northern resumption is slow and the supply is unstable, but the alumina plant's inventory has reached a high level, so the price may decline. For imported bauxite, Guinea's shipping volume is high and a large mining project is resuming production, which will support future supply. The aluminum price rose yesterday, and with the improvement of Xinjiang's shipping and a large number of arrivals this week, along with environmental protection restrictions affecting downstream processing enterprises, the receiving sentiment weakened on Monday. The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas increased [2][3] - **Viewpoint**: The aluminum ingot price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro - sentiment and mine - end news [4] - **Later Concerns**: Macro - expectation changes, geopolitical crisis development, mine resumption, and consumption release [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations on various futures varieties, including judgments on their trends and corresponding operation suggestions [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Styrene (NI2602, EB2602): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [3] - Palm Oil (P2605): Expected to be strong in the short - term [3] - Silver (AU2602): Suggest to buy on dips [3] Full - Variety Daily Reviews Financial Sector - **Stock Index (IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, IM2603)**: Opened higher and closed higher, with the technology sector leading the rise. After the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike, short - term negative factors are exhausted. The index has rebounded continuously, and broad - based ETFs have flowed back. The downside space is limited. The main line is unclear, trading volume is insufficient for an upward breakthrough, and volatility is low. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously. Short - term market may be driven by year - end performance - chasing trading demands, and it is advisable to view it as a volatile market. If participating in trading, enter and exit quickly and take profits in time [3] - **Treasury Bonds (T2603, TF2603, TS2603, TL2603)**: With stable LPR and a strong stock market, treasury bond futures fluctuated downward. The 10 - year variety is relatively stable, and the upper limit of the interest rate is not expected to deviate significantly from 1.85%. Pay attention to the support around 107.6 - 107.8 for T2603. In the short - term, the sustainability of post - New Year's capital loosening. For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short - term and view it as a wide - range fluctuation. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the long - position substitution of the TL contract intraday, and the positive spread and basis widening opportunities of the short - term 2603 contracts [3] - **Precious Metals (AU2602, AG2602, PT2606, PD2606)**: Without clear negative factors, the short - term market of precious metals will remain strong. Subsequently, pay attention to changes in the US economy and monetary policies of various countries. Hold long positions unilaterally. When silver rises sharply, pay attention to changes in the number of open contracts, warehouse receipts, and inventory, as well as the implementation of regulatory risk - control measures. Due to the festival effect, funds have driven gold, silver, platinum, and palladium to new highs, with platinum and palladium rising more. Be cautious of speculative long - positions taking profits at high levels, but high volatility still provides upward momentum for prices. It is recommended to buy on dips to increase the trading safety cushion. With strengthened regulatory risk - control measures, platinum and palladium still have short - term correction risks, and it is advisable to buy on dips [3] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) (EC2602)**: The main contract fluctuated upward, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Non - Ferrous Metals and Steel Sector - **Steel (RB2605)**: Steel production has been cut and inventory has been reduced, and prices will maintain a range - bound fluctuation. Pay attention to the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan for May rebar and 3200 - 3350 yuan for hot - rolled coils [3] - **Iron Ore (I2605)**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, while steel mills' restocking expectations support prices. It is advisable to conduct short - term operations within the range for the 05 contract, and try short positions around 800 [3] - **Coking Coal (JM2605)**: Coal prices at production areas have fluctuated up and down, and Mongolian coal prices have followed futures fluctuations. The futures market has rebounded from oversold conditions. It is expected to rebound with fluctuations, with a reference range of 1000 - 1200 [3] - **Coke (J2605)**: The third round of price cuts for coke in December has been implemented, and port trading prices have followed futures fluctuations. It is expected to rebound with fluctuations, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800 [3] - **Silicon Iron (SF603)**: Production cuts have alleviated the supply - demand contradiction, and costs have remained stable. It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with a reference range of 5400 - 5650 [3] - **Manganese Silicon (SM603)**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the cost side provides support. Conduct short - term operations and try short positions when the price rebounds above the current cost in Ningxia [3] - **Copper (CU2602)**: LME inventory has decreased, and the domestic spot has a discount. Wait and see in the short - term, with the main contract referring to 92500 - 95000 [3] - **Alumina (AO2601)**: The futures market fluctuated at a low level around the cash cost. The main contract operates in the range of 2450 - 2650. Short - term traders can lightly buy on dips to bet on an emotional rebound [3] - **Aluminum (AL2602)**: The spot discount has widened, and market trading has been sluggish. The main contract operates in the range of 21800 - 22600. Buy on dips [3] - **Aluminum Alloy (AD2602)**: Social inventory has been slowly reduced, and the futures market has been strong. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20800 - 21600. Conduct an arbitrage by going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [3] - **Zinc (ZN2602)**: Zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and social inventory has continued to decline. Pay attention to the support at 22850 - 22950 for the main contract, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] - **Tin (SN2601)**: The fundamentals are strong, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level. Pay attention to the US interest - rate decision. Hold previous long positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [3] - **Nickel (NI2602)**: Driven by both mine - end disturbances and valuation, the futures market has continued to rise with fluctuations. The main contract refers to 116000 - 124000 [3] - **Stainless Steel (SS2602)**: The futures market has remained strong, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The main contract refers to 12500 - 13000 [3] - **Industrial Silicon (Si2605)**: Some spot prices have risen slightly, and futures prices have fluctuated downward. The main contract refers to 8000 - 8800 [3] Energy and Chemical Sector - **Polysilicon (PS2605)**: Cooling measures have been introduced, and polysilicon futures prices have fluctuated downward. It is fluctuating at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see [3] - **Lithium Carbonate (LC2605)**: The futures market has remained strong, and the exchange has announced an adjustment of some delivery warehouses. The main contract refers to 112,000 - 116,000 [3] - **PX (PX2603)**: With a tight medium - term supply - demand outlook, PX has been favored by funds and has shown a strong trend. After a sharp rise in PX, be cautious about the current price. Reduce long positions on rallies, and do not chase the rise. Adopt a strategy of buying at low levels in the medium term. Focus on the low - level positive spread between PX5 - 9 [3] - **PTA (TA2605)**: The outlook for raw material PX has improved, but the driving force for PTA is limited. However, strong support exists due to low processing fees. After PTA has followed PX's sharp rise, be cautious about the current price. Reduce long positions on rallies, and do not chase the rise. Adopt a strategy of buying at low levels in the medium term. Focus on the low - level positive spread between TA5 - 9 [3] - **Short - Fiber (PF2602)**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and short - fiber fluctuates with raw materials. The strategy is the same as that for PTA: mainly shrink the processing fee on the futures market when it rises [3] - **Bottle Chip (PR2603)**: The cost side is strong, and the supply of PR is expected to increase. The short - term processing fee of PR will be compressed. The processing fee of the PR main contract on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton. Shrink the processing fee on rallies. Hold the PR2602 - P - 5500 seller position [3] - **Ethanol (EG2605)**: Overseas supply has shrunk, but the supply - demand outlook is still weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term. Conduct a reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 when it rises. Hold the EG2605 - C - 4100 seller position [3] - **Pure Benzene (BZ2603)**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price driving force is weak. BZ2603 will fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] - **Styrene (EB2602)**: The supply - demand outlook is weak, and the driving force for styrene is limited. It is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 6300 - 6700 in the short - term [3] - **LLDPE (I2605)**: In North China, it has maintained near the risk - free basis, and hedging transactions have improved [3] - **PP (PP2605)**: Spot prices have remained stable, and the basis has weakened slightly. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3] - **Methanol (MA2605)**: The spot basis has remained stable, and trading has been light. The MTO spread of the 05 contract will narrow [3] - **Caustic Soda (SH2603)**: There is still pressure on supply and demand, and inventory has continued to accumulate. It is expected that prices will run weakly. Adopt a bearish approach [3] - **PVC (V2605)**: The supply - demand contradiction is prominent, and procurement prices have declined. Adopt a bearish approach on rebounds [3] - **Soda Ash (SA2605)**: Production is at a high level, and the surplus is obvious. The futures market has weakened after a rebound. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rebounds [3] - **Glass (FG2605)**: Spot prices have been under pressure and weakened, and the off - season logic continues. Wait and see [3] - **Natural Rubber (RU2605)**: There is a stalemate in the game between bulls and bears, and rubber prices will fluctuate within a range. Wait and see [3] - **Synthetic Rubber (BR2602)**: The cost side is fluctuating, and with high BR supply and a premium on the futures market, BR will fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to the pressure around 11200 - 11300 for BR2602 [3] Agricultural Sector - **Meal (M2605, RM605)**: US soybeans have no bright spots, and there is still pressure on the spot market. It will adjust in a narrow range [3] - **Live Pigs (LH2603)**: Demand supports the market. Pay attention to the performance of second - fattening entry. It is in a bottom - grinding market [3] - **Corn (C2603)**: There is still suppression above. Pay attention to the rhythm of supply increase. It will fluctuate weakly [3] - **Oils (P2605, Y2605)**: With the Christmas holiday approaching, oils may fluctuate within a range. The P main contract may optimistically冲击 8500 in the short - term [3] - **Sugar (SR2605)**: The supply outlook is loose. Adopt a bearish approach on rebounds [3] - **Cotton (CF2605)**: The supply outlook is expected to shrink. It will fluctuate strongly [3] - **Eggs (JD2602)**: Egg prices are mostly stable with a slight decline. It will fluctuate weakly [3] - **Apples (AP2605)**: Weak demand limits the rebound height. It is recommended to take profits on long positions [3] - **Jujubes (CJ2605)**: The expectation of oversupply dominates, and prices will run weakly. Sell out - of - the - money call options (CJ605 - C - 9700) [3]

2025 年 12 月 23 日 工业硅：以逢高做空思路为主 多晶硅：新增厂库额度，关注情绪面影响 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,595 306,942 | -95 -8,384 | 245 3,032 | -480 -267,403 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 221,606 | 11,733 | 20,857 | -52,372 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 58,845 | -1,400 | 815 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 213,280 | -65,509 | -100,859 | - | | | | PS2605持仓量（手） | 134,949 | -4,238 | -7,895 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure is expected to be reduced as refineries have cut production recently. The overall demand is lower than the historical average due to the off - season, and the inventory situation is mixed. With the strengthening of crude oil prices, the cost support for asphalt is expected to strengthen in the short term. The asphalt 2602 contract is predicted to fluctuate in the range of 2966 - 3024 [7][8]. - The factors that are favorable for investment are the relatively high cost of crude oil, which provides some support. The unfavorable factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods, a downward trend in overall demand, and an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.1826%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points month - on - month. Sample enterprise shipments are 244490 tons, a decrease of 3.52% month - on - month, and sample enterprise production is 487000 tons, a decrease of 2.40% month - on - month. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 955000 tons, an increase of 1.17% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, and supply pressure is expected to be reduced next week [7]. - **Demand - side**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.6%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of construction asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 7.6609%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 24%, a decrease of 3.00 percentage points month - on - month, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 27%, a decrease of 4.10 percentage points month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.00% month - on - month. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.36% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has also decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On December 22, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 75 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 714000 tons, a decrease of 0.97% month - on - month; the in - plant inventory is 594000 tons, an increase of 0.51% month - on - month; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 27000 tons, a decrease of 42.55% month - on - month. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing [8]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions have decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production, which eases supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand improvement is limited, and overall demand falls short of expectations and is sluggish. Inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support will strengthen in the short term. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract fluctuating in the range of 2966 - 3024 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price and basis trends**: The report presents the price trends of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including their current values, previous values, and price changes. It also shows the basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions from 2020 - 2025 [15][18]. - **Spread analysis**: The report analyzes the spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025, as well as the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, and the cracking spread trends of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025. It also shows the比价 trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [22][25][27][31]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions (Northeast, North China, East China, South China, Northwest, Southwest) and the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [15][34]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis** - **Asphalt profit**: The report shows the asphalt profit trends from 2019 - 2025 [36][37]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread**: The report shows the coking - asphalt profit spread trends from 2020 - 2025 [39][40]. - **Supply - side analysis** - **Shipments**: The report shows the weekly shipments of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [43][44]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: The report shows the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory trends from 2021 - 2025 [45][46]. - **Production**: The report shows the weekly and monthly production trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [48][49]. - **Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production**: The report shows the price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [52][53]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: The report shows the local refinery asphalt production trends from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: The report shows the asphalt capacity utilization rate trends from 2021 - 2025 [59][60]. - **Maintenance loss estimate**: The report shows the estimated maintenance loss trends from 2018 - 2025 [61][62]. - **Inventory analysis** - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and in - plant inventory) from 2019 - 2025 [64][65]. - **Social and in - plant inventory**: The report shows the social inventory trends (70 samples) and in - plant inventory trends (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [68][69]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: The report shows the in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends from 2018 - 2025 [71][72]. - **Import and export analysis**: The report shows the asphalt export and import trends from 2019 - 2025, as well as the import price spread trends of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [74][75][78]. - **Demand - side analysis** - **Petroleum coke production**: The report shows the petroleum coke production trends from 2019 - 2025 [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption**: The report shows the apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: The report shows the trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025, as well as the sales trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours trends of excavators, the domestic excavator sales trends, and the roller sales trends from 2019 - 2025 [86][87][90][91]. - **Asphalt开工率**: The report shows the heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 trends, the asphalt开工率 trends classified by use (construction asphalt, modified asphalt), and the downstream开工率 trends (shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt开工率) from 2019 - 2025 [95][96][98][99][100][101]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 - 2025, including monthly production, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, in - plant inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [105][106].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The outer market has rebounded significantly due to potential changes in Indonesian quotas. Some production capacities have reduced recently, easing supply pressure. The overall situation remains bearish in the long - term. The 2602 contract will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium and long term [2] - **不锈钢**: The spot price remains flat. Cost lines are stable, and inventory is decreasing. The 2602 contract is expected to move in a moderately strong oscillation [3] 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **期货价格**: On December 22, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,260, up 4,080 from December 19. The London Nickel price was 15,260, up 360. The Stainless Steel main contract was 12,850, up 130 [9] - **现货价格**: On December 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,800, up 1,700 from December 19. Cold - rolled coil prices in major markets remained unchanged [9] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **上期所镍库存**: As of December 19, the total inventory was 45,280 tons, with futures inventory at 37,602 tons, increasing by 603 tons and 2,352 tons respectively [11] - **期货库存**: On December 22, LME nickel inventory was 254,388 tons, down 162 tons from December 19. Shanghai Nickel warehouse receipts were 38,922 tons, up 1,320 tons [12] Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **社会库存**: On December 19, the Wuxi inventory was 581,200 tons, Foshan inventory was 307,700 tons, and the national inventory was 1,042,100 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The 300 - series inventory was 644,500 tons, down 18,100 tons [16] - **期货 inventory**: On December 22, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 48,312 tons, down 183 tons from December 19 [17] Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - **镍矿价格**: On December 22, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was $55 per wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was $29 per wet ton, unchanged from December 19 [21] - **海运费**: The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was $8.5 per ton, and to Tianjin Port was $9.5 per ton, remaining stable [21] - **镍铁价格**: The price of high - nickel (8 - 12) was 886.5 yuan per nickel point, up 1 yuan, and low - nickel (less than 2) was 3,250 yuan per ton, unchanged [21] Stainless Steel Production Cost - **生产成本**: The traditional production cost was 12,614 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 13,008 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,399 yuan [23] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The calculated import price was 121,956 yuan per ton [26]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 6、预期：近期PTA装置变动较少，供需格局预期尚可，期货盘面则跟随成本端大幅上行，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震 荡运行，现货基差区间波动。关注油价走势及下游负荷。 2、基差：现货4882，05合约基差-158，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.76天，环比减少0.1天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 MEG 每日观点 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货大幅收涨，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略有松动，个别主流供应商有出货。贸易商商谈为主， 12月货在01贴水15成交，略高在01贴 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, along with their core driving logic [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Short - term and intraday view is "oscillating weakly", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating weakly" [5][6] - **Core Logic**: The soybean meal market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. The rising soybean production cost in the US restricts the decline of US soybean futures prices, but the expected high yield of South American soybeans and weak exports limit the rebound. In China, the shrinking trading volume of imported soybean auctions reflects a decrease in market purchasing willingness, and there is no new auction announcement [5] 3.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Short - term and intraday view is "oscillating weakly", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating weakly" [6] - **Core Logic**: Influenced by factors such as US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6] 3.3 Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Short - term and intraday view is "oscillating strongly", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating strongly" [6][7] - **Core Logic**: The rebound of BMD crude palm oil is due to the narrowing month - on - month decline in exports shown in shipping data, and entering the production - reduction cycle, the expectation of alleviating the inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil is strengthening. The rise of US soybean oil and crude oil also boosts the sentiment of the oil market. However, the rebound space of the oil futures price is restricted by the inventory pressure [7]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 重要事项: 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 23 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 周度行情回顾 2025.12.22 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025. 12. 19 2025. 12. 12 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025. 12. 19 2025. 12. 12 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2602 | 93180 | 94080 | -900 | -0. 96% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 92480 | 93830 | -1350 | -1. 4 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is fluctuating with prices stable but slightly decreasing. The supply has decreased slightly due to load fluctuations and maintenance of individual enterprises. The downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near term. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the 05 contract facing resistance at around 1220 yuan/ton [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market has been fluctuating, and prices have been stable with a slight decline. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 72.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons or 1.91%. The comprehensive utilization rate of production capacity was 82.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 million tons or 0.33%. The number of days of pending orders for soda ash enterprises was more than 12 days, showing a narrow decline [1]. - Currently, the profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. The domestic soda ash operation rate is expected to be stable at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline slightly, while that of photovoltaic glass is expected to remain stable. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in the soda ash operation rate [1]. Factors to Watch - Changes in soda ash operation rate; new production capacity release progress; changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with light trading, and prices were slightly adjusted. The futures price fluctuated and rebounded, and the basis in the East China market showed a downward trend [7] Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the domestic soda ash production was 72.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons or 1.91%. The production of light soda ash was 33.11 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 39.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75 million tons. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash by the joint - alkali method in China was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 66.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [8] Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic glass**: As of December 18, the domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity in operation was 88,680 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 3.54%. The capacity utilization rate this week was 67.82%, unchanged from the previous week. In December, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen, mainly because the industry demand is expected to shrink significantly near the end of the year, while the decline in supply is relatively small. Considering the current industry inventory of more than 30 days, there may be unexpected production cuts in December [12]. - **Float glass**: As of December 18, the average operation rate of the float glass industry was 73.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, unchanged from the previous week. There is an expectation that a production line in South China will stop production this week, and the float glass production may slightly decrease [12] Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 18, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 million tons or 0.33%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 72.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.38 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 77.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 million tons [14] Position Analysis - As of December 19, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in soda ash futures was 785,571, an increase of 4,834, and the short - position volume was 963,332, an increase of 27,622. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [16]