Core Viewpoint - The company experienced significant revenue growth driven by rising gold prices and strong sales in precious metal investments and cultural products, although profit margins faced downward pressure due to changes in product mix [1][2][4] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 20.233 billion yuan (up 22.24% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 719 million yuan (up 1.73%) [1] - For Q4 2024, revenue reached 4.887 billion yuan (up 16.84%) with a net profit of 165 million yuan (up 43.00%) [1] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 8.222 billion yuan (up 30.18%) and net profit was 320 million yuan (up 17.32%) [1] Product and Channel Analysis - In 2024, revenue from gold jewelry was 5.473 billion yuan (down 11.14%), while precious metal investment products generated 12.906 billion yuan (up 45.28%) and cultural products brought in 1.563 billion yuan (up 40.87%) [2] - The share of precious metal investment products increased to 64% (up 10 percentage points), while gold jewelry's share decreased to 27% (down 10 percentage points) [2] - Offline revenue was 15.095 billion yuan (up 13.40%), online revenue was 4.818 billion yuan (up 60.26%), and bank revenue was 301 million yuan (up 43.48%) [2] Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 8.94% (down 1.74 percentage points), and the net profit margin was 3.59% (down 0.71 percentage points) [2] - For Q1 2025, the gross profit margin was 8.34% (down 1.66 percentage points), and the net profit margin was 3.95% (down 0.38 percentage points) [3] Store Expansion - By the end of 2024, the company had 100 directly operated stores, with a net increase of 13 stores during the year [3] - In Q1 2025, the company added 4 new stores and closed 2, with plans to open 3 more in Q2 [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 803 million yuan, 870 million yuan, and 930 million yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 12%, 8%, and 7% respectively [4] - The company maintains a "strong buy" rating with a 2025 PE ratio of 13.1X and a 2026 PE ratio of 12.1X [4]

Core Insights - The World Gold Council's report indicates that global gold demand reached a historical high in Q1 2025, driven by significant inflows into gold ETFs, which were a key factor in the rise of gold prices [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Demand and Prices - In Q1 2025, the average gold price reached $2860 per ounce, a 38% increase year-on-year [3]. - Total global gold demand, including over-the-counter investments, grew by 1% year-on-year, marking the highest level for the same period since 2016 [3]. - Gold recycling decreased by 1% year-on-year as consumers opted to hold onto their gold in anticipation of further price increases [3]. Group 2: Investment Demand - Gold ETF inflows surged, leading to a 170% year-on-year increase in total gold investment demand, reaching 552 tons, the highest since Q1 2022 [4][7]. - Central banks globally purchased a net 244 tons of gold in Q1, aligning with the normal quarterly purchase levels over the past three years [7]. - Demand for gold bars and coins remained high at 325 tons, exceeding the five-year quarterly average by 15% [7]. Group 3: Jewelry Demand - Gold jewelry consumption in China fell to 125 tons in Q1, a 32% decline year-on-year, marking the weakest performance since 2020 [9]. - Despite the drop in volume, the monetary value of gold jewelry consumption increased by 9% year-on-year to $35 billion [7]. - The rising gold prices led consumers to shift towards smaller, more affordable gold products, while others chose to wait and see [9][11]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that gold prices will continue to be a critical factor influencing jewelry sales in China, with potential further declines in demand expected if prices remain high [11]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are likely to sustain strong investment demand for gold [16].

证 券 研 究 报 告 中金黄金（600489）2024 年报&2025 一季报点评 强推（维持） 金、铜价格上行带动业绩稳步增长 目标价：17.9 元 事项： 评论： 金、铜价格上行带动 24 年业绩稳步提升。2024 年，国内黄金、铜市场均价分 别同比+23.8%、+10%，其中四季度黄金、铜均价分别同比+30.6%、+11%，分 别环比+7.9%、+0.3%。受益金价上行，公司全年实现归母净利润 33.86 亿元， 同比增长 13.71%，其中四季度实现营业收入 195.11 亿元，同比+24.21%，环 比+11.41%，归母净利润 7.43 亿元，同比-17.98%，环比-17.5%。其中湖北三鑫 金铜净利润 10.2 亿元（+27.9%）、内蒙古矿业 22.8 亿元（-0.24%）、河南中原 黄金冶炼厂 5.6 亿元（-10.65%）。 公司研究 黄金 2025 年 04 月 30 日 当前价：13.97 元 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：马金龙 邮箱：majinlong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120003 证券分析师：刘岗 邮箱：liugang@hcyjs.com 执业编号 ...

Group 1: Production and Supply - In Q1 2025, China's gold production reached 87.243 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.49%, with gold mining contributing 61.772 tons and by-product gold from non-ferrous metals contributing 25.471 tons [1] - Total gold production, including imported raw gold of 53.587 tons, amounted to 140.83 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.18% [1] - Major gold companies are adjusting production layouts and advancing the construction of smart and green mines, while also accelerating overseas acquisitions [1][4] Group 2: Consumption Trends - In Q1 2025, gold consumption in China was 290.492 tons, down 5.96% year-on-year, with gold jewelry consumption declining by 26.85% to 134.531 tons, while investment in gold bars and coins increased by 29.81% to 138.018 tons [2] - High gold prices have suppressed jewelry demand, while investment demand for gold bars and coins has surged due to their lower processing costs and strong investment attributes [2][4] Group 3: Market Activity - The trading volume and value in the gold market showed significant growth, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange reporting a trading volume of 16,000 tons, up 4.57%, and a trading value of 10.7 trillion yuan, up 42.85% [3] - The domestic gold ETF holdings increased by 23.47 tons, reaching 138.21 tons by the end of March 2025 [3] - New regulations allowing insurance funds to invest in gold have been introduced, with the first transaction completed under this framework [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Rising gold prices are expected to lead to increased profits for mining companies, prompting higher exploration and extraction investments, although challenges such as declining resource grades and rising environmental costs remain [4] - The consumption structure is likely to shift further towards investment in gold bars and coins, with increased activity in gold ETFs and futures trading anticipated [4]

4月21日，美国三大股指全线下跌，道琼斯工业平均指数收盘下跌971.82点，跌幅达2.48%，报38,170.41 点。标普500指数下跌2.36%，收于5,158.20点；纳斯达克综合指数更是下挫2.55%，收报15,870.90点， 创下自今年2月以来最大单日跌幅。 尽管总统直接解雇美联储主席在法律上存在复杂性，但他的言论足以在市场中激起巨大不安。"我们正 目睹的是一场围绕货币政策主导权的争夺战，"Simplify Asset Management首席策略师Michael Green指 出，"这令人联想到疫情初期政府与美联储间的矛盾冲突。" 除股市指数与科技巨头外，美元指数也在持续下跌，4月21日纽约尾盘，ICE美元指数下跌0.94%，报 98.294点，在年内累计跌近10%。 21日早间开盘，美元指数在盘初就"跳空低开"，跌破99关口，随后在98至99区间内震荡走弱，北京时间 17:21跌至97.921点，随后低位震荡，为2022年3月30日以来首次跌穿98点。 长期来看，自1月升破110关口后，美元指数持续下跌，年内跌近10% 在金融市场中，美元指数"跌破百点"通常被视为趋势性转折的起点，而当其进一步 ...

花旗研究金价可能在年底前攀升至3500美元。"在我们看来，金价将在年底前触及3500美元/盎司，因担 心美国硬着陆/滞胀，对冲/投资需求大幅增加，这将支撑金价。" 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室（CIO）发布最新机构观点，预计未来12个月黄金价格或达3500美元/盎 司。瑞银表示，除了避险需求和投机者的参与外，黄金配置需求近期也发生许多结构性转变。例如，各 国央行系统性地提高黄金在外汇储备中的份额，这些结构性转变有力地支持了黄金需求。该机构认为， 长期来看，从多元化的角度而言，在美元平衡投资组合中，配置5%的黄金是最佳选择。 摩根士丹利分析师指出，各国央行增加黄金储备和投资者买入黄金是推升国际金价的两大主要因素，在 美联储降息背景下，国际金价受到更多有利因素支持。目前实物需求稳定，预计资金流入ETF可能刚刚 开始，在这种情况下，今年国际金价可能升至3300~3400美元/盎司。 德银的预测则显示，到2025年底，黄金价格将达到3350美元/盎司；如果央行需求在2025年底前保持高 位但随后回落至2011—2021年的常态，2026年黄金平均价格可能为3500美元/盎司；如果高需求持续到 2026年底，则2026年 ...

张尧浠：金价将上涨到你不敢想象的高度4000元/克、17000美元/盎司 种种因素和迹象都显示金价还有上涨空间，或者是还有一波牛市行情，国际黄金到达5000美元/盎司，国内大盘金价将到达1200元/克，都不在话下，更高的 位置将会涨到你不敢想象的高点，最终将创造出史诗级涨幅。当然这不是张口就来，随口一说的，我先来说说我的观点，欢迎补充和交流； 首先就是跟金价中长期趋势相反的美元； 以及在全球货币超发的情况下，黄金产量低，开采总量已定，开采成本高等等因素，已让黄金数据不足，并都将反应到黄金上面来。因为不是黄金值钱了， 是钱不值钱了，货币贬值了。全球央行最近几年不停的买入黄金已是强有力的证据。 同时，金价目前的上涨也只是自身价值的恢复，其价格仍是严重低估的。 截止2025年已开采的全球黄金总量约21万吨，而全球货币115万亿美元，按照目前的汇率7.3，换算过来，也就是每克4000元人民币，国际金价则是1万7美元/ 盎司，这还不算开采成本等等。 所以，综合而言，无论是哪方面，都是利好金价的，金价也是被严重低估的。未来目标将上涨到你不敢想象的位置。 目前美元指数日图和周图都运行在200周期线下方，代表后市趋势偏弱，前 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zijin Mining [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue of 789.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.8% [3][16] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 101.7 billion yuan, up 62.4% year-on-year and 32.2% quarter-on-quarter [3][16] - The company is expected to benefit from the rising prices of copper and gold, with a strong outlook for both commodities [5][38] Summary by Sections Q1 2025 Performance - The company reported a revenue of 789.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of 101.7 billion yuan and a net profit margin of 12.88% [3][16] - The gross profit margin was 22.89%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.28 percentage points [3][16] Production Growth - In Q1 2025, copper production was 288,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, while gold production was 19.1 tons, up 13.4% year-on-year [4][23] - The company is on track to meet its annual production targets for copper and gold, achieving 25% and 22% of the targets respectively in Q1 [4][23] Price and Cost Analysis - The average LME copper price in Q1 2025 was 9,352 USD/ton, a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [5][37] - The average Comex gold price was 2,868 USD/ounce, up 38.5% year-on-year [5][38] - The company maintained low production costs, with significant improvements in gross margins across its key products [6][50] Financial Health - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 54.89%, down 3.71 percentage points year-on-year [8][58] - The return on equity (ROE) improved to 7.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.60 percentage points [8][58] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The report forecasts net profits of 390 billion yuan, 430 billion yuan, and 467 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [64] - The company is positioned as a leading player in the global mining industry, with strong growth potential and effective cost control [64]

消费者观望，投资者套现 面对高昂的金价，不少消费者选择推迟购买计划。"原本打算给女儿买嫁妆，但现在这个价格实在太高 了，想再等等看。"一位消费者表示。 与此同时，部分早期购入黄金的投资者则选择在高点抛售。某黄金回收店负责人透露："最近来卖金 条、金饰的人明显增多，很多人是在2022年低价买入的，现在获利了结。" 未来走势如何？专家建议理性投资 近期，国内黄金价格持续攀升，多家珠宝品牌的金饰价格已逼近每克1000元大关，创下历史新高。这一 波金价上涨主要受国际金价走高、市场避险情绪升温以及国内消费需求增加等因素影响。面对高昂的金 价，消费者观望情绪浓厚，部分投资者则选择逢高套现。 多重因素推高金价 此轮金价上涨主要受以下因素影响： 国际金价走高：美联储降息预期增强，美元走弱，推动国际黄金价格突破2400美元/盎司，带动国内金 价跟涨。 避险需求增加：全球经济不确定性加剧，部分投资者转向黄金以规避风险。 国内消费需求旺盛：尽管价格高企，但黄金作为传统保值资产，仍受消费者青睐，尤其在婚庆、节日期 间需求旺盛。 对于金价未来走势，市场观点不一。部分分析师认为，若美联储如期降息，金价可能继续上行；但也有 机构提醒，短期 ...

国内金饰价格跟随国际金价上涨，部分足金饰品价格破千元 金十数据4月12日讯，截至4月12日，周生生足金饰品价格报1002元/克，前一日为991元/克；老庙足金饰品价格为988元/克，前 一日为983元/克；周大福足金（饰品、工艺品类）价格保持在990元/克不变。 @ 来源 日 网 菜百首饰足金999饰品 950 元/克 Black 990 元/克 潮宏基足金(首饰摆件) 990 元/克 金至尊足金999 全年尊 @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 ...