Price Trends - June CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a return to positive growth after four months of negative figures[7] - June PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year, with the decline continuing to expand compared to the previous month[7] - Core CPI rose to 0.7% year-on-year, the highest in nearly 14 months, supported by the "trade-in" policy[14] Consumer Behavior - The "trade-in" subsidy policy has been a significant factor in supporting durable goods prices, leading to a slight recovery in core CPI[7] - Food prices saw a marginal improvement, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 0.7% month-on-month, better than seasonal trends[12] - Service-related prices remained weak, indicating limited progress in the recovery of household balance sheets[7] Economic Risks - The ongoing uncertainty in the real estate market poses risks to economic stability[3] - External pressures, including tariff issues and uncertain foreign demand, continue to affect the economy[30] - The potential overspending of future consumption demand due to the "trade-in" policy could lead to economic challenges[30]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the "Work for Relief" policy as a key measure for stabilizing employment, supporting enterprises, and promoting high-quality economic development in China [1]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The State Council has issued a notice to enhance support for employment policies, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [1]. - The National Development and Reform Commission, along with other ministries, has introduced an action plan to increase investment by 10 billion yuan for employment support through "Work for Relief" projects [1][2]. - The "Work for Relief" initiative aims to assist low-income populations, including returning migrant workers and rural impoverished individuals, by providing job opportunities and increasing income [1][2]. Group 2: Employment Impact - In 2023 and 2024, the "Work for Relief" projects are expected to create over 5 million job opportunities for low-income individuals, with a total labor remuneration of over 66 billion yuan [2]. - The current investment of 16.5 billion yuan in "Work for Relief" projects supports over 3,900 projects, potentially benefiting 380,000 disadvantaged individuals [2]. - The newly allocated 10 billion yuan is expected to support 1,975 projects, helping stabilize employment for 310,000 key groups and providing 4.59 billion yuan in labor remuneration [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Effects - The action plan increases the proportion of labor remuneration to at least 40% of central investment, which is expected to enhance income for workers [3]. - The increase in income not only addresses immediate living challenges but also improves the economic security of key groups, allowing for better education and housing conditions [3]. - The "Work for Relief" projects contribute to domestic demand by stimulating related industries and enhancing the consumption capacity of low-income groups, thereby promoting economic growth [3]. Group 4: Challenges and Optimization - There is a need for further optimization of the "Work for Relief" policy to address the changing employment landscape and diverse needs of key groups [4]. - Balancing the increase in job opportunities and labor remuneration with project quality and progress is crucial to avoid substandard project outcomes [5]. - Effective identification and organization of key groups are essential for the successful implementation of the policy, as issues like information asymmetry can hinder the process [5]. - Ensuring the sustainability of employment for key groups through skills training and effective job transitions is vital for long-term success [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing policies to stabilize employment, support enterprises, and promote high-quality economic development through initiatives like the "Work for Relief" program, which aims to enhance employment and income for key groups [1][5]. Group 1: Policy Implementation - The "Work for Relief" program is a key measure for counter-cyclical economic adjustment, focusing on providing employment opportunities for low-income populations, including returning migrant workers and rural impoverished individuals [1][2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced an action plan that includes an additional 10 billion yuan in central budget investment to expand the "Work for Relief" initiative, which is expected to support 31,000 key groups in stabilizing employment [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The program is projected to create over 5 million job opportunities for low-income individuals through infrastructure projects, with a total labor remuneration of over 66 billion yuan distributed [2][3]. - By increasing the proportion of labor remuneration to at least 40% of central investment, the program aims to enhance income for workers, thereby improving their economic security and quality of life [3][4]. Group 3: Challenges and Optimization - There is a need for further optimization of the "Work for Relief" policy to address the changing employment landscape and diverse needs of key groups, focusing on project quality and timely execution [4]. - Effective identification and organization of target groups are crucial for the successful implementation of the policy, as issues like information asymmetry may hinder the absorption of eligible workers [4]. - The program should not only address immediate employment needs but also ensure sustainable employment through skills training and effective transitions to similar job opportunities [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Zhejiang Youli Selection Center mini-program is set to launch by the end of July 2025, aiming to stimulate consumption and stabilize growth through a multi-faceted approach involving government subsidies, platform empowerment, and public participation [1] Merchant Side: Tiered Subsidies to Strengthen Market Foundation - A "Development Safeguard Plan" is introduced for small and medium-sized merchants, offering tiered subsidies based on the duration of their participation in the mini-program, with 2,000 yuan available after one year and a cumulative total of 20,000 yuan after two years [3] - The subsidy funds are directed towards supply chain upgrades and service quality improvements, particularly in key sectors such as catering, retail, and cultural tourism, aiming to create a cluster of "reassuring consumption demonstration merchants" [3] Consumer Side: Targeted Subsidy Coupons to Activate Consumption - The program will launch "benefit subsidy consumption coupons" covering various consumer categories, allowing users to receive a direct 30% subsidy based on their spending through the mini-program, which can be combined with other platform discounts [5] - This cash-based incentive model is designed to directly enhance residents' purchasing power and boost consumer confidence [5] Agent Side: Nationwide Recruitment for Promotion Agents - A "Consumption Promotion Agent" recruitment plan is initiated, allowing individuals from all sectors to apply as promotion agents, earning 100 yuan for each merchant they successfully refer to the platform [6] - The agent mechanism includes professional training and data monitoring support, aiming to create a vibrant atmosphere of public participation in consumption promotion, with expectations to onboard over 5,000 merchants within the year [6] Policy Closure: Transition from Short-term Stimulus to Long-term Ecological Consumption Upgrade - The policy represents an innovative practice by the Zhejiang Youli Selection Center to implement consumption stimulation strategies, forming a complete loop from supply to demand through the three-dimensional linkage of merchant stability, consumer confidence, and channel expansion [6] - The application process for merchant entry, coupon collection, and agent registration is currently in preparation and will soon be available on the official mini-program platform [6]

Group 1 - The national general public budget expenditure progress in the first five months of this year reached the highest level in nearly five years, with a significant increase in fiscal spending to support economic growth and improve people's livelihoods [1] - The issuance of local government special bonds and replacement bonds exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan and 1.7 trillion yuan respectively in the first half of the year, indicating a proactive fiscal policy [1] - The broad fiscal expenditure scale expanded significantly to 14.5 trillion yuan in the first five months, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.6%, which is much higher than the revenue growth rate [1] Group 2 - Special bond funds are increasingly diversified, supporting not only infrastructure projects but also revitalizing idle land and stabilizing the real estate market [2] - Fiscal funds have been directed towards social security, education, and healthcare, with significant growth in public finance expenditure in these areas compared to infrastructure spending [2] - The issuance of replacement bonds has nearly reached 90% of the annual target, providing space for economic development through debt restructuring [2] Group 3 - The Ministry of Finance has accelerated the issuance of ultra-long-term special government bonds to support key policies, with a noticeable increase in the issuance pace of special bonds and ultra-long-term bonds since June [3] - There remains over 2 trillion yuan in special bond quotas and 745 billion yuan in ultra-long-term bond quotas available for issuance, indicating ample fiscal resources for stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand [3] - The likelihood of introducing incremental fiscal policies in the second half of the year is low, but there may be a greater probability of policy financial tools being introduced to support the real estate sector [3] Group 4 - The foundation for the recovery of the Chinese economy needs to be further solidified through effective use of fiscal policies and optimization of expenditure structure [4] - Fiscal spending should focus on "investing in people," emphasizing key areas such as education, healthcare, employment, and elderly care to support human capital [4] - In regions with population inflows, there should be an appropriate expansion of public services, while in outflow regions, resource integration and structural optimization should be prioritized to enhance service efficiency [4]

近期中央持续强化"反内卷"政策导向，强调综合治理企业低价无序竞争和产能过剩问题。 国泰海通宏观、策略、建材 、煤炭、 轻工、电新、钢铁、 有色等 多 团队，从宏观到产业，多维度对"反内卷"进行解析。 一、研究报告 （点击标题查看报告） 二、电话会议回放 01、建材｜ 水泥玻璃反内卷：过去与未来 20250702 02、煤炭 ｜ 煤炭拐点清晰，反内卷下的供给变化和新能源新政的对火电影响详解 20250706 三、深度报告节选 【宏观】 "破局"通胀：反内卷与扩内需 【建材】 供给端预期又起，需求关注新方向 近期中央持续强化"反内卷"政策导向，强调综合治理企业低价无序竞争和产能过剩问题。政策的推进已带动焦煤、螺纹钢、玻璃等工业品价格率先反弹。不 过， 这种价格修复更多反映政策预期而非基本面实质改善，实际供需格局的优化、 PPI 表现可持续的改善还需等待实施细则的落地推进情况。 而且我们认为，要真正破解内卷困局，扩内需政策的协同发力不可或缺。 事实上，内卷现象的根源之一在于有效需求不足。当前经济运行还面临内外部共同 压力：关税局势和外需回暖的不确定性持续存在、以旧换新政策可能透支部分后续消费需求、地产销售投资端的调 ...

而且我们认为，要真正破解内卷困局，扩内需政策的协同发力不可或缺。 事实上，内卷现象的根源之一在 于有效需求不足。当前经济运行还面临内外部共同压力：关税局势和外需回暖的不确定性持续存在、以旧 换新政策可能透支部分后续消费需求、地产销售投资端的调整还在持续。如果同时进行单纯的去产能，反 而可能带来工业生产放缓、就业压力加剧等影响。由此，稳经济、化解内卷还需要内需政策的接续支持。 在具体操作上，仍需继续关注经济基本面走势，即若出口、制造业 PMI 、地产等数据明显走弱，货币财 政政策加码概率可能大大增加。 风险提示： 房地产走势不确定性仍存；政策力度不及预期。 报告导读： 今年以来，"以旧换新"补贴政策持续支撑耐用消费品价格，带动核心 CPI 同 比小幅修复，而其中服务价格方面仍有待提振，指向了居民部门资产负债表的修复进展有 限，需要后续稳增长政策接续。 6 月 CPI 同比转正。 食品价格拖累减弱；国际油价上涨输入带动能源价格；核心 CPI 环比持平，核心消 费品 CPI 环比表现显著好于 2023 、 2024 年，" 618 "提前促销影响过去后，"以旧换新"政策支持的相 关品类价格仍相对偏强，而服务相关价格 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June, the national CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a rebound in industrial consumer goods prices [1][3] - The core CPI rose by 0.7%, reaching a 14-month high, indicating the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting consumption [1][4] - The CPI's month-on-month decline was 0.1%, with urban areas also experiencing a 0.1% decrease, while rural areas remained stable [4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The national PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][5] - Industrial producer purchase prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month, with a 2.8% decline in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year [4][5] - The PPI's decline is expected to persist due to insufficient industrial demand, but improvements in supply-demand relationships and macroeconomic policies may stabilize prices [5][7] Group 3: Policy Implications - The government aims for a GDP growth of around 5% and a CPI increase of about 2% this year, indicating potential for further fiscal and monetary policy support to stimulate demand and improve price performance [4][7] - Policies targeting the reduction of "involutionary competition" are anticipated to enhance supply-demand structures, supporting price increases in various sectors [7] - Supply-side structural reforms are expected to alleviate overcapacity issues, potentially boosting industrial prices and improving corporate profitability [7]

券研究报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 宏观研究 / 2025.07.09 "破局"通胀:反内卷与扩内需 应锈钢(分析师) 021-38676666 2025年6月物价数据点评 本报告导读: 贺媛(分析师) 今年以来,"以旧换新"补贴政策持续支撑耐用消费品价格,带动核心 CPI 同比小幅 021-38676666 修复,而其中服务价格方面仍有待提振,指向了居民部门资产负债表的修复进展有 登记编号 S0880525040129 限,需要后续稳增长政策接续。 梁中华(分析师) 投资要点: 02 -38676666 Q 6月 CPI 同比转正。食品价格拖累减弱;国际油价上涨输入带动能 登记编号 S0880525040019 源价格;核心 CPI 环比持平,核心消费品 CPI 环比表现显著好于 2023、2024年,"618"提前促销影响过去后,"以旧换新"政策支持 的相关品类价格仍相对偏强,而服务相关价格继续稳中偏弱。 6月 PPI 同比跌幅继续扩张,一是受高温降雨天气影响,房地产、 o 基建项目施工进度有所放缓。二是"反内卷"具体政策和效果仍待 观察,尤其是对光伏、水泥、钢铁等行业实际供需格局的影响。三 观去 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of relatively sufficient supply and stable demand, with the cost side supporting the spot price. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of relatively stable supply, seasonal decline in demand, and increased inventory. Due to the support of the macro - environment, the industry outlook remains positive. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with seasonal inventory accumulation. The long - term industry outlook and the firm cost side may provide some support for the cast aluminum price. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading, paying attention to rhythm and risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,515 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract position is 250,099 lots, down 19,098 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is 16,703 lots, up 2,441 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.96, down 0.05 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the main contract position is 248,656 lots; the LME aluminum cancelled warehouse receipts are 8,225 tons, unchanged [2]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 19,830 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract position is 8,571 lots, down 114 lots [2]. Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 20,660 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the average price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium/discount is - 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,100 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the alumina basis is - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The alumina production is 748.80 million tons, up 16.50 million tons; the alumina import volume is 6.75 million tons, up 5.68 million tons; the alumina export volume is 21.00 million tons, down 5.00 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 15,750 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 159,700.92 tons, down 30,651.64 tons; the export volume is 72.44 tons, up 35.90 tons [2]. Industry Situation - **Aluminum Production and Trade**: The primary aluminum import volume is 223,095.59 tons, down 27,381.21 tons; the export volume is 32,094.07 tons, up 18,421.29 tons; the aluminum product production is 576.20 million tons, down 0.20 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 55.00 million tons, up 3.00 million tons [2]. - **Capacity and Utilization**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum production capacity utilization rate is 97.68%, up 0.03% [2]. Downstream and Application - **Automobile and Real Estate**: The automobile production is 264.20 million vehicles, up 3.80 million vehicles; the National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.72, down 0.13 [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 8.08%, down 1.16%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 9.10%, down 0.05%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money is 8.28%, down 0.0041; the call - put ratio is 1.15, up 0.0349 [2]. Industry News - In June, the production and retail of passenger cars reached 2.419 million and 2.084 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 18.1%. Among them, the production and retail of new energy vehicles reached 1.2 million and 1.111 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 28.3% and 29.7% [2]. - From January to June, the production and retail of passenger cars reached 13.246 million and 10.901 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.5% and 10.8%. Among them, the production and retail of new energy vehicles reached 6.457 million and 5.468 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 38.7% and 33.3% [2].