【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 01 有色周度行情回顾 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡、碳酸锂） 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 周度行情回顾 2025.12.22 以上内容谨代表个人观点，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与华宝期货有限公司和作者无关，据此入市交易，风险自负！投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 目录 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025. 12. 19 2025. 12. 12 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025. 12. 19 2025. 12. 12 周变动 | | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2602 | 93180 | 94080 | -900 | -0. 96% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 92480 | 93830 | -1350 | -1. 4 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic soda ash market is fluctuating with prices stable but slightly decreasing. The supply has decreased slightly due to load fluctuations and maintenance of individual enterprises. The downstream demand is expected to be moderately weak, and the inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain at a high level in the near term. The soda ash price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the 05 contract facing resistance at around 1220 yuan/ton [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - The domestic soda ash market has been fluctuating, and prices have been stable with a slight decline. Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 72.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons or 1.91%. The comprehensive utilization rate of production capacity was 82.74%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.61%. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 million tons or 0.33%. The number of days of pending orders for soda ash enterprises was more than 12 days, showing a narrow decline [1]. - Currently, the profit of soda ash enterprises is poor. The domestic soda ash operation rate is expected to be stable at a high level this week. The downstream demand for soda ash is expected to be moderately weak. The production of downstream float glass is expected to decline slightly, while that of photovoltaic glass is expected to remain stable. The inventory of soda ash enterprises is expected to remain high, and attention should be paid to changes in the soda ash operation rate [1]. Factors to Watch - Changes in soda ash operation rate; new production capacity release progress; changes in soda ash enterprise inventory [2] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data This Week Spot and Futures Market Review - Last week, the soda ash market in East China was stable with light trading, and prices were slightly adjusted. The futures price fluctuated and rebounded, and the basis in the East China market showed a downward trend [7] Supply Situation Analysis - As of December 18, the domestic soda ash production was 72.14 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4 million tons or 1.91%. The production of light soda ash was 33.11 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 39.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.75 million tons. The theoretical profit of the dual - ton of soda ash by the joint - alkali method in China was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - alkali method was - 66.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33% [8] Demand Situation Analysis - **Photovoltaic glass**: As of December 18, the domestic photovoltaic glass production capacity in operation was 88,680 tons per day, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 3.54%. The capacity utilization rate this week was 67.82%, unchanged from the previous week. In December, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen, mainly because the industry demand is expected to shrink significantly near the end of the year, while the decline in supply is relatively small. Considering the current industry inventory of more than 30 days, there may be unexpected production cuts in December [12]. - **Float glass**: As of December 18, the average operation rate of the float glass industry was 73.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points, and the average capacity utilization rate was 77.48%, unchanged from the previous week. There is an expectation that a production line in South China will stop production this week, and the float glass production may slightly decrease [12] Enterprise Inventory Analysis - As of December 18, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 149.93 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.50 million tons or 0.33%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 72.76 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.38 million tons, and that of heavy soda ash was 77.17 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.88 million tons [14] Position Analysis - As of December 19, the long - position volume of the top 20 members in soda ash futures was 785,571, an increase of 4,834, and the short - position volume was 963,332, an increase of 27,622. The net position of the top 20 members was bearish [16]

Group 1 - PTA futures showed a strong performance, with the main contract reaching 4982.00 CNY/ton, an increase of 3.32% [1] - As of December 19, the number of PTA futures warehouse receipts was 129,107, a decrease of 690 from the previous trading day [2] - In November 2025, China's PTA imports were 0.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.036 million tons from the previous month, representing a decline of 55.78% [2] Group 2 - Donghai Futures indicated that the supply-demand outlook for next year is improving, leading to a significant increase in PTA prices due to self-discipline production cuts by major manufacturers [4] - Hualian Futures noted that while oil prices remain low, geopolitical complexities and a strong gold market provide some support for oil prices, impacting the polyester supply chain [4] - The processing fee for PTA is at a multi-year low but is expected to strengthen, with production rates anticipated to rise and low inventory levels for both production enterprises and social stocks [4]

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 ★ | 长线持有 | 美国政策数据喜忧参半，日本政策符合预期，短期重大事件落地，流动性风险偏好 尚可，短期缺乏重大事件驱动。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在， | | | | 央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 白银交割故事或将持续重演，长期来看市场押注降息持续、供需缺口连续 5 年持续， | | ★★ | 长线持有 | 全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做多逻辑不变。短期金银比价大幅快速降低， 盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险 | | 铜 | | 美通胀不及预期，美国虹吸全球铜库存，26 年铜精矿长协 TC 报 0 美元/吨，铜短期 | | ★ | 长线持有 | 易涨难跌，建议铜多单继续持有，回调仍是布局良机，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 盘面进入超买区间，谨防高波动风险 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 易涨难跌，建议铜多单继续持有，回调仍是布局良机，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | ★ | | | 锌 ★ 承压 海外锌库存持续 ...

2025 年 12 月 22 日 商 品 研 究 铂：ETF 增持边际上扬，中枢上移 钯：小幅撤步后重拾上涨势头 期货研究 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 533. 55 | | -1.67% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 511. 65 | | 0. 00% | | | | 纽约铂主连 | 2016. 00 | | 2. 90% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金 | 1957. 70 | | 1.92% | | | | 铝金期货2606 | 480. 20 | | 0. 76% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 430. 00 | | 10. 82% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连 | 1.755.60 | | 0. 78% | | | | 伦敦现货纪金 | 1.712.00 | | 0. 71% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | | 较前日变 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 22 日 PP：PDH 利润环比修复，趋势震荡偏弱 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | LLDPE 基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | | PP2605 | 6213 | -1.05% | 459440 | 10464 | | | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | 基差月差变化 | 05合约基差 | -143 | | -159 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -27 | | -24 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格（元/吨） | | 前日价格（元/吨） | | | | 华 北 | 6050 | | 6090 | | | | 华 东 | 6070 | | 6120 | | | | 华 南 | 6170 | | 6200 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货盘面震荡，部分区域 ...

王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 22 日 沥青：低位震荡，关注地缘 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,909 | -1.46% | 2,940 | 1.07% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 2,924 | -1.52% | 2,955 | 1.06% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2602 | 手 | 327,221 | (83,194) | 217,948 | (6,744) | | | BU2603 | 手 | 85,332 | (38,860) | 128,904 | 5,416 | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 54100 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 12 月 22 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 核心逻辑：近期豆粕市场近强远弱、外弱内稳。国内豆粕库存虽处高位但已开始去化，现货压力有所 缓解。然而，远期合约面临巨大压力。一方面，国内进口大豆库存高企，油厂开机率维持高位；另一 方面，市场对一季度后南美大豆集中到港的预期强烈，远期供应压力不断强化。这导致市场呈现"近 强远弱"的结构，短期价格在成本支撑与供应压力下维持震荡偏弱运行，但中长期受制于全球丰产格 局，面临承压下行走势。 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 ...

金投白银网提供今日白银期货价格走势_今天白银期货价格走势（2025年12月22日） 今日白银期货价格查询（2025年12月22日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 昨收价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | 15959.00 | 15999.00 | 15340.00 | 15376.00 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情》 金投白银网(http://ag.cngold.org)为您提供最新白银期货价格、白银期货合约、白银期货交易以及白银期 货走势，更多白银期货行情敬请关注：白银期货专栏 备注：以上白银的价格仅供参考，请以官方报价为准。如对白银投资有疑问可咨询本站客服。 ...

期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025年12月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪与基本面共振，价格坚挺 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块与基本面共振，走势震荡偏强 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空情绪交织博弈，走势宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 22 日 铁矿石：宏观风偏再提振，高位震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | I 2605 | | 780. 0 | 2. 5 | 0. 32% | | | ...