Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides short - term outlooks for various commodities and financial products, including expectations of price trends, trading suggestions, and factors influencing supply and demand. [2][4][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: Currently in a multi - empty stalemate. OPEC+ maintains an increasing production stance in the medium term, and there may be a supply surplus after the summer demand peak. Short - term: wait and see. [2] - **PTA**: PTA's operating rate has increased slightly, polyester inventory has accumulated, and the demand side has dragged down the spot price. With crude oil oscillating, short - term: wait and see. [9] - **Methanol**: The cost of coal is expected to be stable, domestic methanol production is expected to increase at a high level, and downstream demand is expected to be weak. The port may accumulate inventory. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with support at 2370. Suggestion: wait and see. [9] Metals - **Iron Ore**: The recent anti - involution policy has boosted the black market sentiment, and the supply of steel is expected to shrink. The fundamentals of iron ore have not shown obvious signs of weakening in the off - season. The 2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Suggestion: buy on dips. [4] - **Steel Rebar**: In the short term, the rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory slightly accumulating but still at a low level. The market has insufficient contradictions and driving forces. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate. [5] - **Silver**: The growth of US retail sales and the decrease in initial jobless claims indicate strong economic resilience in the US. The rebound of the US dollar index puts pressure on precious metals. [14] - **Gold**: Although US economic data is strong, the US dollar has limited upward momentum. If the US dollar falls, gold may rebound, but the medium - term view is wide - range oscillation. [15] Agricultural Products - **Coke**: Coking coal prices continue to rise, and there is a strong expectation of a second price increase. Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. [2] - **Pig**: Yesterday, the national pig price continued to decline, with a temporary oversupply situation. However, there is strong macro - bullish sentiment. Suggestion: trade within a range. [6] - **Palm Oil**: Supported by import costs, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level. [6] - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot market sentiment is optimistic, but the proportion of rapeseed meal in feed formulations is low. Suggestion: buy on dips. [7] Others - **Long - and Medium - Term Treasury Bonds**: Second - quarter economic data exceeded expectations, and foreign institutions raised their GDP growth forecasts for China in 2025, which is bearish for the bond market. However, the recent stock market correction is bullish for bonds. The bond market is at a critical juncture near the 60 - day moving average. [12] - **Short - Term Treasury Bonds**: The decline in money market interest rates is bullish for short - term bonds. The upward momentum of short - term bonds may be stronger than that of long - term bonds. [14] - **Rubber**: There are still weather disturbances on the supply side, and the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises has rebounded on the demand side. The short - term disk is expected to oscillate strongly, but the demand has not significantly improved. [15] - **Polypropylene**: The supply is still abundant, and the commercial inventory is expected to remain at a high level in the short term. The demand side has weak purchasing enthusiasm. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 7055. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds. [11] - **Soda Ash**: The float glass market has stable production and decreasing inventory, but the demand support is weak. The domestic soda ash market is stable. The 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1250. Suggestion: wait and see or short on rebounds. [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - PX, PTA follow cost fluctuations; MEG has low inventory, and it's advisable to take long - short spreads when the price difference is low. Rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to be strong in a volatile market; asphalt will fluctuate within a range. Caustic soda has strong demand support and there are still expectations for the peak season. Pulp is expected to be strong in a volatile market; glass prices are stable. Methanol and urea will run in a short - term volatile state; styrene will be weak and volatile. Soda ash has little change in the spot market; LPG has effective cost support and may rebound in the short term. Fuel oil will have a small rebound and mainly show a short - term volatile trend; low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak. Short - fiber will be in a short - term volatile market; bottle - chip will be volatile in the short term, with a strategy of going long on PR and short on PF. Offset printing paper will run in a volatile state; pure benzene will be weak and volatile [2][11][12]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Data**: PX主力昨日收盘价6742，涨跌幅26；PTA主力昨日收盘价4714，涨跌幅0.17%；MEG主力昨日收盘价4372，涨跌幅0.48%。PX9 - 1昨日收盘价134，前日收盘价98；PTA9 - 1昨日收盘价66，前日收盘价50；MEG9 - 1昨日收盘价17，前日收盘价2 [5]. - **Market News**: An East China refinery reduced its PX load due to a fault; crude oil futures weakened on July 17. PTA device load increased to 79.7% by Thursday; MEG overall start - up load in the Chinese mainland was 66.2% as of July 17, with a decline of 1.37% compared to the previous period. A 150,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang stopped for catalyst replacement [5][6][9]. - **View and Suggestion**: The market is concerned about the commissioning progress of Sanfangxiang. PX supply is still tight. Avoid shorting unilaterally and take long - short spreads. Pay attention to the compression of long - term PXN positions. PTA should also avoid shorting unilaterally and take long - short spreads. For MEG, it's expected to be strong in a volatile market, and take long - short spreads when the price difference is low [11][12]. 3.2 Rubber - **Market Data**: The rubber main contract's daily closing price was 14,665 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan; the night - session closing price was 14,885 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan. The trading volume was 333,832 lots, an increase of 99,586 lots; the open interest was 151,500 lots, an increase of 2,850 lots [15]. - **Industry News**: Rainy weather in domestic and foreign production areas has intensified short - term supply disruptions, and the price of Thai cup lump rubber has risen significantly. In May 2025, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to the world were 149,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89% and a year - on - year increase of 11.22%. From January to May, the cumulative export volume was 732,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.40%. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.13%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.98%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87 percentage points [17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - **Market Data**: The daily closing price of the butadiene rubber main contract (08 contract) was 11,570 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the trading volume was 69,387 lots, an increase of 11,938 lots; the open interest was 18,411 lots, a decrease of 2,292 lots [18]. - **Industry News**: The static valuation range of the butadiene rubber futures fundamentals is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton. In the short term, synthetic rubber will follow the rubber sector and be strong in a volatile market, but the fundamentals of its own industrial chain still face significant pressure [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt - **Market Data**: BU2508's closing price was 3,649 yuan/ton, and the night - session closing price was 3,663 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. BU2509's closing price was 3,628 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, and the night - session closing price was 3,643 yuan/ton, up 0.41% [22]. - **Market News**: From July 11 - 17, 2025, China's weekly asphalt production was 566,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.4%; a year - on - year increase of 80,000 tons, an increase of 16.5%. As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories was 773,000 tons, a decrease of 4.0% compared to July 14. The inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses was 1.827 million tons, an increase of 0.3% compared to July 14 [36]. 3.5 Caustic Soda - **Market Data**: The 09 - contract futures price was 2,484 yuan/ton; the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton; the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2,625 yuan/ton; the basis was 141 [37]. - **Market News**: The price of the caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The high - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but the sales at high prices are not good after the price increase. The sales of low - concentration caustic soda at high prices have slowed down [38]. - **View**: Caustic soda is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient upward momentum, but it has strong cost support due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. It's advisable to take long - short spreads for the 10 - 1 contracts [39]. 3.6 Pulp - **Market Data**: The daily closing price of the pulp main contract was 5,264 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the night - session closing price was 5,318 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan. The trading volume was 180,569 lots, an increase of 20,629 lots; the open interest was 141,751 lots, a decrease of 1,682 lots [44]. - **Industry News**: The average price of the imported pulp market has risen slightly this period. The supply - side port inventory is at a high level, and the overseas offer is declining; the downstream paper mill's start - up rate is stable and low, and the procurement is only for rigid restocking [45][47]. 3.7 Glass - **Market Data**: The closing price of FG509 was 1,092 yuan/ton, up 2.06%. The trading volume was 1,832,573 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4,105 lots. The 09 - contract basis was - 22 yuan; the 09 - 01 contract price difference was - 76 yuan [49]. - **Market News**: The domestic float glass market remains stable with minor fluctuations. The selling prices in some Shahe markets have slightly declined, and the demand sustainability is uncertain [49]. 3.8 Methanol - **Market Data**: The closing price of the methanol main contract (09 contract) was 2,373 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the trading volume was 449,450 lots, an increase of 539 lots; the open interest was 653,886 lots, a decrease of 196 lots [52]. - **Market News**: The port methanol market fluctuated slightly this period. The traditional downstream demand in the port area was still weak, and the port inventory increased significantly. The inland methanol market showed regional differentiation [54]. - **View**: Methanol is expected to run in a short - term volatile state. The supply has decreased due to increased domestic maintenance and low imports in July. The demand has also weakened, with MTO having a neutral - to - low profit and traditional demand declining [54]. 3.9 Urea - **Market Data**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,743 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the trading volume was 137,230 lots, an increase of 10,358 lots; the open interest was 198,012 lots, an increase of 379 lots [56]. - **Industry News**: On July 16, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons compared to last week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46%. In the short term, domestic demand is weak, and exports provide support, showing a volatile trend [57]. 3.10 Styrene - **Market Data**: Styrene2507 was 7,260 yuan/ton; Styrene2508 was 7,284 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan; Styrene2509 was 7,221 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan [59]. - **Market News**: The supply and demand of pure benzene have both increased, while the supply of styrene has increased and the demand has decreased. Styrene is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and it is mainly a short - position allocation. The port inventory of styrene is in an accelerated accumulation phase [60]. 3.11 Soda Ash - **Market Data**: The closing price of SA2509 was 1,225 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The trading volume was 1,359,320 lots, and the open interest decreased by 39,415 lots. The 09 - contract basis was - 25 yuan; the 09 - 01 contract price difference was - 46 yuan [63]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market is running steadily and lightly, with flexible price transactions. The soda ash production device is running stably, and the production is at a high level. The downstream demand is stable, and the transactions are mainly based on demand [63]. 3.12 LPG - **Market Data**: The closing price of PG2508 was 4,078 yuan/ton, down 0.80%; the night - session closing price was 4,080 yuan/ton, up 0.05%. The closing price of PG2509 was 3,985 yuan/ton, down 0.82%; the night - session closing price was 3,992 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [66]. - **Market News**: On July 16, 2025, the expected Saudi CP for August: propane was 549 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; butane was 519 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton. The expected Saudi CP for September: propane was 548 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton; butane was 518 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton [73]. 3.13 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Market Data**: The closing price of FU2509 was 2,863 yuan/ton, down 0.59%; the closing price of FU2510 was 2,878 yuan/ton, down 0.35%. The closing price of LU2509 was 3,580 yuan/ton, down 1.38%; the closing price of LU2510 was 3,576 yuan/ton, down 1.75% [76]. - **View**: Fuel oil will have a small rebound and mainly show a short - term volatile trend; low - sulfur fuel oil remains weak [76]. 3.14 Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip - **Market Data**: The closing price of short - fiber 2508 was 6,514 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; the closing price of bottle - chip 2508 was 5,928 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [78]. - **Market News**: The direct - spinning polyester staple fiber futures are in a volatile state. The factory offers are stable, and the discounts have been moderately increased. The polyester bottle - chip factory offers have been partially increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the market trading atmosphere is light [78][79]. 3.15 Offset Printing Paper - **Market Data**: The prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, and other paper types in the Shandong and Guangdong markets remained unchanged on July 17, 2025 [82]. - **Industry News**: The mainstream intended transaction price of high - white offset printing paper in the Shandong market is 5,000 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and that in the Guangdong market is 4,900 - 5,100 yuan/ton. The social orders are in the off - season, and the dealers' inventory - clearing progress is average [83]. 3.16 Pure Benzene - **Market Data**: BZ2603 was 6,122 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan; the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 16.4 tons, down 1 ton; the styrene inventory in East China ports was 131,060 tons, up 1,640 tons [84]. - **News**: As of July 14, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports was 164,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.75% and a year - on - year increase of 272.73%. The inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports was 138,500 tons, an increase of 24.22% compared to the previous period [85].

2025 年 7 月 18 日 商 品 研 究 焦炭：一轮提涨落地，宽幅震荡 焦煤：宽幅震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | JM2509 | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) 918.5 | 涨跌(元/吨) 21.5 | 流跌幅 2. 40% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1519 | 24. 5 | 1.64% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 992915 | 551465 | -10542 | | | | J2509 | 23460 | 44754 | -534 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1300 | 1300 | 0 0 | | | | 金泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 950 | 950 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1150 | 1150 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views of the Report - PX: Market focuses on Sanfangxiang's production progress, supply remains tight. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. Pay attention to long - term PXN compression positions. Supply - demand is stable in July, spreads are expected to be strong. Aromatics are overvalued relative to oil products, with declining blending margins and increasing oil product supply - demand pressure in Q4 [8]. - PTA: Market concerns include whether Sanfangxiang's production will be postponed due to low processing fees and if Yisheng will increase production cuts. Avoid short - chasing in single - side trading, go for positive spreads in calendar spreads. In 01 contract, long PX and short PTA, long PR and short PTA. Supply increases while demand decreases, with Sanfangxiang's new PTA plant progress being a key factor [8]. - MEG: Saudi and Singaporean ethylene glycol plants have reduced operations, potentially affecting future imports. Imports are expected to decline to 63 - 58 million tons per month from July to August. It is in a bullish - biased sideways market, and positive spreads in calendar spreads are recommended when spreads are low [9]. 3) Summary by Related Content Market Overview - PX: An East China refinery reduced its load due to a fault, and Sinopec Hongrun Petrochemical in China reduced the operating rate of its reforming and crude distillation units. Crude oil futures weakened on July 17, and the spot premium between September and October widened [2][3][5]. - PTA: There were no significant changes in PTA plants in mainland China this week. By Thursday, the PTA load reached 79.7%, and the operating rate was around 85.8% [6]. - MEG: As of July 17, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 66.2% (down 1.37% from the previous period). A 150,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang stopped for catalyst replacement, expected to last about a month [6]. - Polyester: The operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained mostly stable this week. As of Thursday, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn was around 74%. The overall polyester load was volatile, and the load in mainland China was around 88.5% [6]. Market Sales - Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales on July 17 were still weak, with an average sales rate of over 40% by 3:30 pm. The sales rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber was average, with an average sales rate of 48% by 3:00 pm [7]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [7]. Fundamental Data - Futures: PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC had different closing prices, price changes, and price change rates on the previous day. Their calendar spreads also showed price changes compared to the day before [2]. - Spot: PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent had different prices and price changes on the previous day compared to the day before. Spot processing fees also had corresponding changes [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: Not specified [1] - Pure Benzene: Not specified [1] - PX: Not specified [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish bias but limited trading opportunity [1] - Bottle Chips: Not specified [1] - Urea: Not specified [1] - Caustic Soda: Not specified [1] - Soda Ash: Not specified [1] - Plastic: Not specified [1] - Styrene: Not specified [1] - PTA: Not specified [1] - Short Fibre: Not specified [1] - Methanol: Not specified [1] - PVC: Not specified [1] - Glass: Not specified [1] Core Views - The methanol market is supported by inland supply, but demand is entering the off - season [2]. - The short - term supply - demand of the domestic urea market is expected to be loose, and the market is likely to fluctuate strongly within the range [3]. - The polyolefin market has supply recovery and weak demand issues [4]. - The pure benzene market has a weak cost support and supply pressure, with seasonal improvement expected in Q3 and pressure in Q4 [5]. - The styrene market has sufficient supply and poor spot trading [6]. - The polyester market has different situations for PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fibre and bottle chips, with various supply - demand and profit conditions [7]. - The PVC market has increased supply and weak demand, while the caustic soda market has profit improvement but high - price sales issues [8]. - The glass market has better supply - demand than soda ash, and the glass - soda ash spread is expected to continue to strengthen [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Methanol - The main contract of methanol fluctuates narrowly. Import arrivals have increased significantly, and ports are rapidly accumulating inventory. Some enterprises may postpone autumn maintenance due to good profits. Downstream maintains rigid demand procurement, and production enterprise inventory has little change [2]. Urea - The urea futures fluctuate strongly. Daily production decreases slightly, supply remains sufficient, and agricultural demand is approaching the end of the peak season. Production enterprise inventory is transferred to downstream and ports, with enterprises de - stocking and ports stocking up quickly. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly within the range [3]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures fluctuate narrowly and are weak. PE supply will recover as some devices restart, and demand from North China's agricultural film has limited impact. PP has many maintenance devices providing support, but off - season demand is weak [4]. Pure Benzene - The price of benzene is weak. Cost support is weakening, domestic production is increasing slightly, and port supplies are abundant. There is an expectation of seasonal improvement in the second half of Q3, but pressure in Q4. It is recommended to operate on the monthly spread [5]. Styrene - The main contract of styrene futures opens low and fluctuates narrowly. The cost - end crude oil market has a multi - empty game. Styrene has high operating loads and increasing port inventory, and downstream procurement is on - demand [6]. Polyester - PX and PTA fluctuate. PX supply - demand improves, but weak PTA demand drags it down. PTA has a drive to repair the processing spread. Ethylene glycol prices rise due to port de - stocking and unstable overseas devices. Short fibre has a slight de - stocking and profit repair. Bottle chips enterprises cut production, but inventory increases slightly [7]. Chlor - alkali - PVC fluctuates narrowly. Manufacturers de - stock slightly, but social inventory increases. New devices are put into operation, and downstream orders are insufficient. Caustic soda fluctuates strongly, with profit improvement driving device restart, but high - price sales are poor [8]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass runs strongly, with inventory decreasing and downstream restocking. It is expected to fluctuate with the macro - mood. Soda ash runs strongly, but the spot market is weak, with high supply and inventory. The glass - soda ash spread is expected to strengthen [9]

苯乙烯产业日报 2025-07-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 7284 | -59 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | 284912 | -78678 | | | 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | 399614 | 8249 9月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) 手) | 7221 | -42 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, | | | | | | | | 182446 | -21932 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | -27055 | -2627 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 426669 | 10876 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) | 0 | -7245 -2 | | 现货市场 | | 7946 | -10 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) | 896 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The downstream glass market's recovery boosts the sentiment of the soda ash market, but the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1208 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1195 yuan/ton, and the main basis is - 13 yuan, with a decline of - 0.49%, - 0.42%, and - 7.14% respectively compared with the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash produced by the North China ammonia - soda process is - 134.30 yuan/ton, and that by the East China joint - soda process is - 113.50 yuan/ton, at the lowest level in the same period in history [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 81.32%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output is 70.89 tons, including 40.01 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a significant expansion of soda ash production capacity, with new production capacity of 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned new production capacity of 750 tons in 2025 (with 100 tons actually put into production) [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 92.40% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.84 tons, and the operating rate is 75.68%, showing a stable recovery [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Affected by the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has decreased significantly [31]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash in factories nationwide is 186.34 tons, an increase of 2.98% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35].

多晶硅：市场消息持续性发酵 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 2025 年 07 月 17 日 工业硅：市场情绪发酵，关注上行空间 期货研究 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 8,685 | -100 | 545 | 1,315 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 1,111,567 -305,331 | | -41,879 | 604,288 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 379,848 | -16,805 | -19,181 | 56,485 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2508收盘价（元/吨） | 42,945 | 475 | 3,675 | - | | | | PS2508成交量（手） | 449,860 | -115,886 | -344,604 | - | | | | PS2508持仓量（手） ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2509 contract slightly rose 0.83% to 14,525 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Thursday [5]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. The downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed down, and the terminal demand has entered the off - season. After the previous negative expectations were gradually digested, the futures price has entered a volatile recovery trend [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the synthetic rubber futures 2509 contract's decline slowed down, with the price slightly down 0.13% to 11,405 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Thursday [7]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have slightly increased, driving up the output and capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber. The downstream demand is weak, tire production and sales growth has slowed down, and the terminal demand has entered the off - season. After the negative factors were digested by the price correction, the decline of the futures price has slowed down [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 7 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线支撑 | 淡季特征未退，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢基本面弱势运行，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，螺纹产量再度下降，供应有所收缩但依旧处于年 内高位，且品种吨钢利润较好，压力缓解有限。同时，螺纹需求季节性弱势，高频需求指标均走 弱，且位于近年来同期低位，淡季需求特征未退，弱势需求继续承压钢价。总之，螺纹钢基本面延 续季节性弱势，淡 ...