Core Insights - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has seen a turnover of 5.94% and a transaction volume of 221 million yuan as of February 13, 2026, with a net inflow of 9.92 million yuan [1] - International gold prices have risen nearly 4% during the holiday period, surpassing the 5200 USD mark, driven by increased market risk aversion due to new tariff policies and economic data from the U.S. [2] - UBS maintains a positive outlook on gold, projecting a target price of 6200 USD per ounce in the coming months, citing geopolitical risks and continued central bank purchases as key drivers [2] Product Highlights - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has a total management and custody fee of 0.30%, which is lower than the average fee of 0.60% for most gold ETFs [1] - The ETF has reached a new high in shares since its inception, indicating strong investor interest and confidence [1] Related Products - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) is linked to off-market funds, including Connect Fund A (014661) and Connect Fund C (014662) [1] - Other ETFs mentioned include various sector-focused funds such as the Technology ETF, Biopharmaceutical ETF, and Aerospace ETF, indicating a diverse range of investment opportunities in the market [3][4]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：铜价高位震荡，关注复工情况 假期间伦铜震荡运行于12500-13000美元区间。 宏观中性偏空。2月21日特朗普宣布将对全球对等关税上调至15%，贸易政策不确定性叠加美国伊朗谈判无果，市场避险情绪升温。 基本面中性。假期间LME累库约3万吨至24万吨，COMEX铜累库0.8万吨至54.46万吨。节前国内加工企业开工率大幅下滑，关注节后复工情况。 总体来看，受中国假期影响海外铜价波动放缓，节后在下游复工推动下，铜价具备一定韧性，预计价格有望企稳回暖。今日沪铜主力运行参考9.9万-10.25万 元/吨。策略上，逢低布局远月多单。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 镍&不锈钢：宏观方面，美国关税走向不确定性扰动市场，地缘风险亦有担忧。消息面上，WBN的RKAB配额被削减至1 ...

国金证券近日发布石油化工行业研究：2月18日以来由于海外市场对于美国与伊朗开战的预期快速上 升，原油市场担忧已经进入战争倒计时阶段因而地缘风险溢价快速上升。19日据CBS新闻援引知情人士 透露，美国高级国家安全官员已告知特朗普，军方最快可能于周六对伊朗发动打击。18日以来布伦特原 油自约66美元/桶涨至高点72美元/桶，美伊战争风险是主要推动因素。 风险提示 布伦特原油净多持仓回升至2年来高位，1月看涨期权押注升至历史最高值。2025年12月14日布伦特原油 净多持仓仍由于对2026年过剩预期处于2012年以来的低位。但由于美国伊朗战争风险快速上升，截至 2026年2月17日布伦特净多持仓回升至2年来低位。同时由于美国伊朗地缘风险上升，2026年1月布伦特 买入看涨期权成交量创历史最高水平。市场已经从此前的美伊博弈阶段进入战争冲突爆发前夕的倒数计 时阶段。 美国伊朗局势对后市原油价格的短期推演起到决定作用。多国宣布撤侨，美国调动海空军事力量部署至 中东区域形成双航母打击群，战争风险快速上升。以71美元/桶为标准，我们认为当下计价伊朗地缘风 险约10美元/桶。我们认为后续伊朗事态发展或有四种可能性①美国与伊朗外 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global macro environment remains turbulent during the Spring Festival holiday, with significant events such as changes in U.S. tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts leading to sharp fluctuations in major asset prices, adding uncertainty to the domestic market's opening after the holiday [1] Market Reactions - During the Spring Festival, international markets experienced notable price movements, with commodities like silver, crude oil, and agricultural products showing significant changes [2] - The price of CMX silver increased by 12.15%, while Brent oil rose by 5.14% and U.S. soybean oil by 4.30% [2] Federal Reserve Policy Insights - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increased internal divisions regarding future monetary policy, with discussions around rate cuts, pauses, and hikes being mentioned [4][5] - Recent data indicates a 3.0% year-over-year increase in the core PCE price index, leading to a reduction in expectations for rate cuts [5][7] Stock Market and Precious Metals Outlook - Despite short-term volatility, the U.S. stock market is still in an economic expansion phase, with AI contributing positively to productivity [9] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are expected to continue their upward trend, driven by both financial and industrial demand [11] Oil Market Dynamics - Geopolitical risks are identified as a primary driver of recent fluctuations in global oil prices, with potential military actions against Iran posing risks to oil supply routes [12][13] - The International Energy Agency reports a significant increase in global oil inventories, indicating a potential oversupply situation [13] Commodity Market Predictions - The precious metals sector is anticipated to see substantial increases post-holiday, with silver showing strong potential for recovery due to both financial and industrial factors [15] - The energy sector is expected to respond directly to international crude oil price movements, while the chemical sector may face challenges due to supply-demand mismatches [15] Risk Factors for Market Opening - The market is expected to open broadly higher with structural differentiation, focusing on potential rebound opportunities in precious metals and oil-related products [16] - Key risks include jump gap risks, position changes, and liquidity risks, necessitating cautious trading strategies [16]

进入2026年时，石油分析师的共识是，原油市场正进入一个深度供应过剩的时期，这可能会在今年全年 持续压制价格。2025年，随着过剩加剧，油价下跌约20%。然而，今年以来，在地缘政治冲击和强于预 期的需求双重作用下，油价却意外地出现了上涨。目前油价已高于六个月前的水平，高盛策略师在给客 户的一份报告中写道，这使得交易员们"聚焦于为何全球大规模供应过剩……这尚未转化为2026年迄今 布伦特油价的持续下跌"。 但分析师表示，这两个指标并不一定非得同步变动。 与此同时，美国对伊朗采取军事行动的可能性越来越大，这导致油价因全球关键咽喉霍尔木兹海峡可能 中断而飙升，该海峡每日约有2000万桶石油产品通过其水域。对红海商业航运的袭击已迫使油轮绕道非 洲好望角，收紧了实物交割市场，并增加了欧亚之间运输石油产品的运费成本。 需求也依然强于预期。 欧洲的制造业数据放缓被视为价格看跌信号，但强于预期的运输数据、世界其他地区的需求增长以及意 外的寒冷天气弥补了这一影响。随着中国延长其采购热潮，预计中国将很快上线更多存储能力。 与此同时，1月份美国就业数据远超预期，这是需求的另一个看涨信号，而OPEC+产油国联盟的产量仍 低于指引，因 ...

上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> 日经指数在温和涨跌之间摇摆后小幅上涨0.3%，至56，985.34点，投资者正在评估关税方面的进展。媒 体援引知情人士的话报道称，特朗普政府正在考虑对六个行业征收新的国家安全关税。两名花旗投资研 究分析师在一份研究报告中称，如果美国的政治不稳定或地缘政治风险加剧引发资本从美国流向其他国 家，日本股市可能会从资金流动的角度受益。表现最好的股票中，Nitto Boseki上涨15%，住友电气工业 上涨11%，Furukawa Electric上涨10%。美元兑日元报154.75日元，纽约周一晚间为154.66日元。日本市 场周一因假日休市。 责任编辑：王永生 上个马年沪指涨近60%！新年新福利来了，炒股排面要拉满，新号启幸运>> 责任编辑：王永生 日经指数在温和涨跌之间摇摆后小幅上涨0.3%，至56，985.34点，投资者正在评估关税方面的进展。媒 体援引知情人士的话报道称，特朗普政府正在考虑对六个行业征收新的国家安全关税。两名花旗投资研 究分析师在一份研究报告中称，如果美国的政治不稳定或地缘政治风险加剧引发资本从美国流向其他国 家，日本股市 ...

Group 1: Global Market Overview - During the Spring Festival holiday, significant global macro events occurred, including sudden changes in U.S. tariff policies and escalating geopolitical conflicts, leading to substantial price volatility in major assets, which adds uncertainty to the domestic market opening after the holiday [1] - The international market saw notable price fluctuations in various commodities, with silver prices increasing by 12.15%, crude oil prices rising by 5.33%, and gold prices up by 3.68% during the holiday period [2] Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions have intensified, with discussions around interest rate changes indicating possibilities of rate cuts, pauses, or increases, reflecting a complex monetary policy outlook [4] - The latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis shows that the core PCE price index increased by 3.0% year-on-year, which is higher than expected, leading to a reduction in market expectations for rate cuts [4][6] Group 3: Precious Metals and Investment Strategies - The precious metals sector is expected to experience significant price increases, supported by overseas market trends, although high volatility is anticipated due to potential regulatory measures from exchanges [15] - Silver prices have rebounded during the holiday, driven by both financial and commodity attributes, with a notable reduction in short positions in the silver market [11] Group 4: Oil Market Dynamics - Geopolitical risks are identified as the primary driver of global oil price fluctuations, with potential military actions against Iran posing risks to oil supply routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz [12][13] - The International Energy Agency's latest report indicates that global oil inventories are increasing at the fastest rate since 2020, suggesting a potential oversupply in the market [14] Group 5: Agricultural Products Outlook - The agricultural sector, particularly commodities like soybean oil and palm oil, has shown significant price increases, with wheat inventories declining for four consecutive years, indicating a potential rebound in wheat prices [15]

瑞银重申对 黄金的积极立场，预计未来数月国际现货黄金目标价达6200美元/盎司。分析师认为，在美 国与伊朗紧张局势下，地缘政治风险将持续高企，而美联储宽松周期预计将继续，对实际利率构成压 力。分析师指出，2025年全球黄金需求突破5000吨，瑞银预计，在更强劲的投资流动和各国央行持续购 买的推动下，金价将进一步上涨。供应方面，增长似乎受限。虽然金价高企可能激励勘探活动，但咨询 公司伍德麦肯兹估计，到2028年，约有80座矿山将耗尽当前的生产计划，这表明短期内供应弹性有限。 ...

新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。 2月23日，上周五我们认为，地缘紧张局势加剧，俄乌谈判无果而终，双方分歧巨大，美伊谈判进展有 限，且爆发战争的风险加大，这让市场避险情绪再度升温，支撑黄金价格反弹，短期技术面也显示，黄 金存在反弹需求，因此操作上建议大家，下方支撑关注5000美元，其次4980美元，上方压力关注5050美 元，其次5100美元。 从之后的走势看，上周五欧盘盘中，黄金回落5007美元企稳反弹，美盘开盘后继续上涨，至5063美元遇 阻，黄金短线跳水，急跌至4990美元企稳，此后金价继续震荡上涨，临近收盘时突破5100美元整数关 口，刷新日高至5107美元；本周一开盘，黄金回踩5102美元继续上涨，刷新本月新高至5176美元遇阻， 目前交投于5153美元。总体来看，黄金回落5000到4980美元支撑区域企稳上涨，基本符合我们的看涨预 期。 Wolfinance星级分析师认为，上周三黄金止跌反弹，此后金价连续震荡回升，至日内 ...

Group 1: Tariff Policy Changes - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled against certain tariffs under the IEEPA, affecting approximately half of the tariffs and potentially requiring the government to refund over $175 billion in taxes [3] - The Trump administration quickly shifted to impose a temporary 10% import tariff under the Trade Act of 1974, which was later raised to 15% [3] - Analysts suggest that the new tariffs could raise the average tariff level in the U.S. to between 11% and 18%, indicating ongoing trade tensions [3][4] Group 2: AI and Robotics Industry Growth - The Spring Festival Gala showcased humanoid robots, leading to a significant increase in search and order volumes on platforms like JD.com, indicating strong market interest [5][6] - The humanoid robot index surged after the Spring Festival Gala in 2025, with domestic orders exceeding 4.6 billion yuan, highlighting the industry's nearing commercialization [6] - Major companies like ByteDance and Alibaba have made significant advancements in AI technology, with applications gaining widespread user engagement [7] Group 3: Currency Strength and Market Impact - The Chinese yuan appreciated significantly, reaching the 6.89 range against the U.S. dollar, with a cumulative increase of nearly 1.3% since February [8][9] - Analysts predict that the yuan's strength will enhance the attractiveness of yuan-denominated assets, leading to a trend of foreign capital inflow into Chinese markets [8][9] - The appreciation of the yuan is expected to positively impact the stock, bond, and currency markets, with a notable focus on A-shares and government bonds [8][9] Group 4: Geopolitical Uncertainty - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and Ukraine and the U.S. and Iran, are contributing to market volatility [10][11] - The lack of substantial progress in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, along with escalating tensions in the U.S.-Iran relationship, are key factors influencing global market sentiment [10][11] - Analysts highlight that geopolitical events often lead to price fluctuations in commodities, with gold and oil being critical hedging tools in uncertain times [10][11]