Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI - The global manufacturing PMI for May is 49.2%, indicating a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, but it remains below the expansion threshold for three consecutive months, reflecting weak economic momentum [1] - In Asia, the manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.4%, while the Americas, Africa, and Europe remain in contraction [1] - The US manufacturing PMI for May is 48.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking a four-month decline [2][1] Group 2: US Trade Deficit - The US trade deficit in April narrowed significantly by 55.5% to $61.6 billion, the lowest level in 2023, reversing the trend of widening deficits seen in the first quarter [3] - Imports fell by a record 16.3% in April, while exports increased by 3%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics due to tariff policies [3] - The trade deficit with China decreased to $19.7 billion, the lowest since March 2020, while deficits with Canada and Mexico also shrank [3] Group 3: European Central Bank Actions - The European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25 basis point cut in key interest rates, marking the eighth rate cut since June of the previous year, with the main refinancing rate now at 2% [5] - Eurozone inflation rates have decreased, with the harmonized CPI for May falling to 1.9%, the first time below 2% since September 2024 [5] - The ECB signaled a potential end to the rate-cutting cycle, as economic conditions stabilize and inflation pressures ease [6][5] Group 4: Domestic Appliance Subsidy Adjustments - Several regions in China have suspended or adjusted the "national subsidy" for replacing old appliances due to the depletion of available funds [8] - The subsidy program has been popular among residents, but its recent suspension may be a temporary measure as new funding is being planned [9] - The impact of the subsidy on stimulating domestic demand has been significant, but broader recovery in consumer spending is still needed [9] Group 5: Didi's Financial Performance - Didi reported a revenue of 53.26 billion yuan for Q1 2025, an 8.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.36 billion yuan, up 188.14% from the previous year [10] - The total order volume for Didi's domestic ride-hailing services increased by 10.3% year-on-year, while international orders grew by 24.9% [10] - The improvement in profitability is attributed to higher order volumes and a reduction in losses from overseas operations [11][10] Group 6: Precious Metals Price Surge - Silver prices have surged past $36, reaching the highest level since February 2012, while platinum prices also hit a two-year high at $1,154.73 per ounce [12] - Over the past year, silver and platinum have increased by 19% and 13%, respectively, while gold has risen by 42% [12] - The price increases are linked to industrial demand, with silver being crucial for solar panels and platinum used in automotive catalysts [12] Group 7: Market Overview - The stock market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,385.36 points, up 0.04%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.19% [17] - Market activity was characterized by a lack of clear direction, with various sectors showing both gains and losses [17] - The recent market movements are influenced by expectations of future policy support and ongoing trade negotiations [18]

美元指数本周整体走势震荡，继续受到特朗普关税政策和谈判进展的影响。其中，周三，随着美国经济数据疲软推升了降息预期，美元指数跌破99关口，重 回六周低点。周四，中美元首通话提振了市场情绪，美指有所回升。周五非农数据后，美指重回该关口上方，截至发稿报99.3。 现货黄金本周整体走高，主要受到美元走软、贸易和地缘政治风险增加的提振。最刺激的行情出现在周四，金价坐上过山车，盘中触及3400美元/盎司关口 后又急转直下，回吐日内全部涨幅。截至发稿，现货黄金报3350美元/盎司。 另外，贵金属市场近期迎来集体上涨，白银、铂金和钯金价格均表现强劲。白银周四上涨至13年高位，自2012年2月以来首次突破每盎司36美元，铂金也升 至2022年以来的最高水平。 非美货币方面，随着美元走低，欧元、英镑、澳元、加元兑美元均本周整体录得下跌。美元兑日元连续第二周收涨，但本周是其近十周以来波动性最小的一 周。近期日本长期国债收益率的上升凸显了日本央行需要谨慎地收紧政策。 国际油价方面，美布两油本周料将录得三周来首次收涨。俄乌和谈和美伊核谈判前景黯淡，加拿大野火危及石油供应，以及更多贸易协议进展的消息提振了 需求前景，带动油价上涨。但是， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - A shares and stock index futures rose collectively this week, with small and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction range, and the economic fundamentals were still weak. The extension of the exemption period for the 301 investigation by the US and the phone call between the Chinese and US presidents released positive signals for the relaxation of trade relations [9][14]. - This week, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds weakened, and the yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds declined by about 0.5bp. Treasury bond futures rose collectively. The bond market is driven by capital and fundamentals, and it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern [9]. - The commodity market strengthened due to the improvement in import and export expectations, but the subsequent upward momentum needs to be observed. The US economic data weakened comprehensively, the dollar index was volatile and weak, the eurozone cut interest rates, and the euro was boosted by the weakening of the dollar [9]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.88%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 0.91%. A - share major indexes rose collectively this week, with the ChiNext Index rising more than 2%. The four stock index futures also rose collectively, and small and medium - cap stocks were stronger than large - cap blue - chip stocks, with the ranking of gains being IM>IC>IF>IH. The domestic manufacturing PMI in May slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction range, and the economic fundamentals were still weak. The market trading activity rebounded significantly compared with last week. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9]. Bonds - The yield of treasury bond cash bonds weakened this week. The yields of 10Y and 30Y bonds declined by about 0.5bp to 1.66% and 1.88% respectively. Treasury bond futures rose collectively. The TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts rose 0.10%, 0.27%, 0.45%, and 1.09% respectively. The bond market is driven by capital and fundamentals, and it is expected to continue the volatile consolidation pattern. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose 1.46%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose 1.55%. In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5 percentage points. The new export order index and import index increased by 2.8 and 3.7 percentage points respectively. After the easing of the Sino - US tariff dispute, the import and export situation improved, and the commodity market strengthened, but the subsequent upward momentum needs to be observed. The allocation suggestion is to short on rallies [9]. Foreign Exchange - The euro against the US dollar rose 0.77%, and the euro against the US dollar 2506 contract rose 0.65%. The US economic data weakened comprehensively, the employment market faced downward risks, and the debt problem continued to suppress. The dollar index was volatile and weak. The eurozone cut interest rates by 25bps as expected, the inflation data continued to slow down, and the fiscal expansion plan provided support. The euro was mainly boosted by the weakening of the dollar. The allocation suggestion is to watch cautiously [9] 2. Important News and Events - Domestic news includes the implementation of the "Government Data Sharing Regulations", the President's important article on accelerating the construction of an education power, the pilot work on the integration of the human resources service industry and the manufacturing industry, and the participation of the Minister of Commerce in the WTO small - scale ministerial meeting [16]. - International news includes the US raising the import steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, the pessimistic US economic outlook shown in the Fed's "Beige Book", the OECD lowering the US and global economic growth forecasts, and the number of new jobs created by US enterprises hitting a two - year low [18]. 3. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - US economic data: The US May ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.5, the April factory orders month - on - month rate was - 3.7%, the May ADP employment was 3.7 million, the initial jobless claims for the week ended May 31 were 24.7 million, and the April trade balance was - 61.6 billion US dollars [19]. - EU economic data: The eurozone May manufacturing PMI final value was 49.4, the May CPI annual rate initial value was 1.9%, the April unemployment rate was 6.2%, the April PPI month - on - month rate was - 2.2%, and the European Central Bank deposit mechanism interest rate as of June 5 was 2% [19]. - Other countries' economic data: The UK May manufacturing PMI final value was 46.4, and，the German May manufacturing PMI final value was 48.3, the French May manufacturing PMI final value was 49.8 [19]. 4. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - Next week's important economic indicators include China's May export and import annual rates in US dollars, the CPI annual rate, the UK's May unemployment rate, the US's May unadjusted CPI and core CPI annual rates, etc. [86]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月06日 隔夜金价震荡,白银伴随铜价破位上行。中美两国元首通话同意继续落实好日内瓦共识,尽快举行 新一轮会谈。美国公布周度初请失业金人数超预期升至24.7万创八个月新高，本周美国经济数据普 遍偏弱后聚焦今晚非农指引。金价背靠3000美元强支撑维持回调买入思路，白银破位后打开上方空 间。 【铜】 隔夜铜价大幅波动，持续去库下伦铜短线突破9800美元，到目前美盘铜价已基本回撤隔夜涨幅。中 美领导人对话缓和贸易谈判气氛，美国4月进口额大幅下降；最新一期当周初请失业金人数显示失业 及人力成本压力升温。LME0-3月现货升水走扩至90美元,关注国内现货供求,沪铜夜盘跟涨、填补 清明缺口，昨日上海铜升水90元，广东贴水15元。前期空头择机换月，7.95万以上考虑止损。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝延续震荡。昨日铝锭社库减少1.5万吨，铝棒增加0.2万吨，去库速度有所放缓。需求面临 季节性转淡和贸易摩擦的考验,中美制造业PMI均处于荣枯线之下,抢出口消费前置后关注强现实是 否向弱预期转换。沪铝在前期缺口20300元关键位置存在阻力，逢高偏空参与。 (氧化 ...

市场普遍预测，欧洲央行将在7月会议上暂时维持利率不变，并可能在9月再次降息。 数据显示，欧元区5月调和CPI同比增速降至1.9%，为2024年9月以来首次低于2%；核心通胀亦出现明显 放缓，至2.3%，创2022年1月以来新低，主要受服务类价格涨幅回落推动。薪资增速同步趋缓，减轻了 央行对工资推动型通胀的担忧。 当地时间6月5日，欧洲央行宣布将三大关键利率各下调25个基点，其中主要再融资利率降至2.0%。这 是自去年6月以来的第八次降息，符合市场此前预期。 声明指出，欧元区当前的整体通胀水平已接近央行设定的2%中期目标。在物价压力持续缓解的同时， 外围经济环境趋弱使增长前景承压，政策立场正转向更具灵活性的路径。 欧洲央行行长拉加德在新闻发布会上表示："在今天下调25个基点后，我们处于一个良好的位置。"她同 时补充称，"货币政策周期即将结束"。 此外，美国政府于5月31日宣布，将钢铁和铝进口关税从25%上调至50%，新一轮加征在6月4日正式启 动，或对欧洲出口造成进一步打击。 目前，欧盟多数出口商品已面临10%的临时性关税，若7月谈判破裂，关税上调将进一步打击制造业与 出口表现。德国总理默茨预计本周晚些时候在白 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ななな [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: なな女 な女女 [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on supply, demand, inventory, and price trends [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Metal Copper - Thursday, Shanghai copper main contract closed up above 78,000 yuan. Today, spot copper price adjusted to 78,415 yuan. Shanghai copper premium narrowed to 90 yuan, and Guangdong copper was at a discount of 15 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 4,200 tons to 148,800 tons this week. Suggest to short on rebounds or actively roll over contracts [2] Aluminum & Alumina - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined today. East China spot premium slightly dropped to 90 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 15,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory increased by 2,000 tons. Demand faces seasonal weakening and trade friction. Shanghai aluminum has resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Guinea mining area incident has temporarily subsided. Alumina has an over - supply situation in the long - term. Suggest to short on highs for both aluminum and alumina [3] Zinc - Overseas mines are expected to increase output in Q2 compared to Q1. Domestic CZSPT's Q3 2025 import ore TC guidance price is 80 - 100 dollars/dry ton. Zinc social inventory is expected to fluctuate at a low level, but total supply of zinc ingots and zinc alloys will increase. Consumption off - season is emerging. Suggest to short on rebounds [4] Lead - Thursday, SMM 1 lead average price rose by 75 yuan to 16,500 yuan/ton. High spot - futures price difference promotes warehousing. Lead - acid battery consumption is in the off - season. SMM lead social inventory increased to 53,900 tons. Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,000 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel futures price oscillated downwards. Trade conflicts have spread to the steel sector. Stainless steel supply remains high, and consumption peak season is ending. Philippines nickel ore supply is expected to increase. Suggest to short on rebounds [7] Tin - Shanghai tin weighted price oscillated below the annual line. Today, spot tin price increased by 4,100 yuan to 259,600 yuan. Low - grade tin复产 may be more difficult than expected. Suggest to hold previous high - level short positions and roll over contracts on rebounds [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. Total market inventory decreased by 200 tons to 131,600 tons, downstream inventory increased by 800 tons, and smelter inventory decreased by 1,000 tons. Mid - stream production increased by 3% month - on - month. Suggest to participate in the oscillatory rebound with a light position [9] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures slightly declined. Supply is increasing while demand growth in photovoltaic and organic silicon slows down. High inventory persists. Although there are signs of oversold, the downward trend remains. Suggest to maintain a bearish view [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures decreased with reduced positions. Domestic distributed demand declined. June downstream production plans are tightened, while polysilicon production is expected to increase. Inventory pressure rises slightly. Price tends to oscillate weakly [11]

Group 1 - Japan plans to purchase U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) that China has stopped importing and seeks cooperation on rare earths restricted by China [1] - Japan aims to support the U.S. in semiconductor production by providing assistance in manufacturing wafers and other necessary components [1][2] - Japan's proposal focuses on ensuring the supply of essential materials for industrial activities, responding to U.S. tariffs targeting China [1] Group 2 - Japan possesses advantages in processing, recycling, and reducing the use of rare earth materials and intends to offer these technologies to the U.S. [2] - Japan is considering expanding imports of U.S. LNG and supporting development projects in Alaska, Louisiana, and Texas [2] - Japan has plans to purchase semiconductor products from U.S. companies, including Nvidia, amidst U.S. restrictions on semiconductor exports to China [2] Group 3 - Japan has been requesting adjustments to tariffs on automobiles, steel, and aluminum, aiming for consensus during the upcoming Japan-U.S. summit [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. has increased tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%, effective June 4, 2025, which has sparked strong opposition from trade partners [1][3] - The new tariffs are expected to significantly raise domestic prices, particularly affecting the automotive industry, where steel constitutes about 60% of a vehicle's weight, potentially increasing car prices by $2,000 to $4,000 [1][3] - The increase in tariffs may also impact prices of consumer goods such as beverages in aluminum cans and major home appliances like refrigerators and washing machines [1] Group 2 - The new tariff policy has already shown negative effects on global trade, with Germany's mechanical engineering sector reporting a 6% year-on-year decline in new orders due to U.S. tariff policies and uncertainty [3] - The chief economist of the German Mechanical Engineering Industry Association has indicated that the new tariffs have severely impacted global markets, leading to a decline in corporate investment sentiment [3] - The global trade landscape is facing significant challenges as the implications of the U.S. steel and aluminum tariff increase unfold, raising concerns about how countries will respond [3]

供需双压致油价走低：美国汽油库存暴增520万桶，欧佩克计划持续增产，沙特降价争夺市场份额，叠 加贸易摩擦抑制需求预期，国际油价承压下行。邓正红软实力表示，美国数据显示汽油和柴油库存出人 意料地大幅增加，欧佩克联盟增产导致供需平衡趋松，且关税紧张局势引发的全球经济前景担忧持续发 酵，供需两端挤压石油软实力，周三（6月4日）国际油价走低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克 萨斯轻质原油7月期货结算价每桶跌0.56美元至62.85美元，跌幅0.88%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油8月 期货结算价每桶跌0.77美元至64.86美元，跌幅1.17%。美国能源信息署（EIA）称，上周美国汽油库存 增加520 万桶，馏分油库存增加 420 万桶。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克联盟在未来几个月继续加 速石油增产，因为沙特更加重视夺回失去的市场份额。 宏观风险压制软实力扩张空间，贸易摩擦抑制需求预期。尽管美中计划元首通话，但特朗普政府持续指 责中国"违反协议"，叠加OECD下调全球增长预期，关税紧张局势持续发酵。贸易不确定性直接抑制原 油需求前景，加剧投资者对经济衰退的担忧。地缘政治博弈的复杂影响。伊朗宣布实现完整核燃料循 环，哈 ...

Group 1: Energy - International oil prices declined overnight, with Brent 08 contract down 1.07%. Saudi Arabia aims to increase production at a rate of 411,000 barrels per day in August and September, and lower the official price premium for light crude oil sold to Asia in July. The supply disruption caused by wildfires in Canada has partially recovered. Consider shorting opportunities after the peak - season expectations and geopolitical fluctuations are fully priced in [2]. - High - sulfur fuel oil demand is relatively low, and the expected increase in supply from OPEC+ may lead to a co - weakening of high - sulfur fuel oil cracking and EFS. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil due to weak supply and demand [20]. - The discount of diluted asphalt in June remains at a high level of - $6.5 per barrel. Supply increase lacks momentum, demand is seasonally improving, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue. The BU cracking spread faces short - term回调 pressure, but the upward trend is not reversed [21]. - In June, the decline in CP is relatively small. Although the Middle - East supply is abundant, the recovery of domestic chemical demand and the rebound of crude oil have boosted the market sentiment. The supply pressure has weakened, and the market is stabilizing, maintaining a low - level shock [22]. - Urea agricultural demand is in the wheat - harvest break period, and the market trading sentiment is weak. Production enterprises are continuously accumulating inventory. Exports are gradually liberalized, but inspections are still restricted. The market weakens within the range [23]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold showed a strong - side oscillation overnight, while silver had limited fluctuations. The US economic data is weak, and the Fed's attitude is cautious. Gold prices should be bought on dips based on the strong support at $3000 [3]. Group 3: Base Metals - LME copper showed a solid form with inventory decreasing rapidly and logistics shifting to the US. Consider short - selling on rebounds or active position - swapping [4]. - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. Demand is facing seasonal decline and trade frictions. There is resistance at the previous gap of 20,300 yuan. Participate in short - selling on rallies [4]. - The bauxite mine incident in Guinea has temporarily subsided. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation. Consider short - selling after the futures discount is gradually repaired [5]. - The zinc market's fundamentals are shifting from weak supply - demand to increasing supply and weakening demand. Continue the strategy of short - selling on rebounds [6]. - The actual consumption of lead is not optimistic. The cost - side support is strong, and the lower limit of Shanghai lead is temporarily seen at 16,300 yuan per ton [7]. - The nickel market is affected by trade conflicts. The supply of stainless steel is high, and the inventory situation is mixed. Short - sell on rebounds [8]. - The tin price continued to rise overnight. The low - grade tin production may be slower than expected. Hold previous high - level short positions and swap positions on rebounds [9]. Group 4: Steel and Iron Ore - Steel prices slightly declined at night. Rebar demand has short - term resilience but is under pressure in the off - season. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand have both increased, and inventory has decreased. Pay attention to terminal demand and policies [13]. - Iron ore prices oscillated strongly overnight. Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the off - season. The rebound space is expected to be limited [14]. - Coke prices rebounded significantly. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the price may continue to rise in the short term [15]. - Coking coal prices rebounded significantly. The current rebound is more likely a basis - repair rebound rather than a reversal signal [16]. Group 5: Chemicals - Methanol prices stopped rising and oscillated at night. The industry is accumulating inventory, and prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the inventory in Jiangsu [24]. - Styrene prices are under pressure due to inventory accumulation. Some enterprises plan to reduce production [25]. - Polypropylene and plastic prices are at a relatively low level, and short - term decline space is limited. The demand off - season continues [26]. - PVC prices may oscillate at a low level due to expected supply increase and export decline. Caustic soda prices are under pressure at a high level [27]. - PX and PTA prices are under pressure due to changes in supply - demand patterns. Pay attention to terminal orders and polyester production cuts [28]. - Ethylene glycol prices continue to decline. The market sentiment is weakening [29]. Group 6: Grains and Oils - Soybean meal futures oscillated flat, with weak upward drive. Supply is expected to be abundant. Short - term bearish, pay attention to weather changes from June to August [34]. - Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to oscillate within a range. The market is affected by policy expectations, supply pressure, and weather [35]. - Rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil prices are under short - term pressure. Pay attention to trade policies and overseas weather [36]. - Domestic soybeans oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to the auction results and weather [37]. - Corn prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Demand is weak, and new wheat may replace some corn demand [38]. Group 7: Livestock and Poultry - Hog futures oscillated weakly. Supply is expected to increase in the later stage, and short - term prices may continue to decline [39]. - Egg futures hit a new low. Supply is increasing, and demand is in the off - season. Prices may continue to decline [40]. Group 8: Textiles - Cotton prices: US cotton may benefit from rainfall, but the planting progress is behind. Domestic cotton has tight inventory expectations, and the market is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [41]. - Sugar prices: International sugar supply expectations are bearish, and domestic sugar has less inventory pressure. Sugar prices are expected to oscillate [42]. - Apple prices oscillate. Market demand has declined, and the focus is on the new - season output estimate [43]. Group 9: Others - Wood prices are weak. Supply has some positive factors, but demand is in the off - season. Temporarily observe [44]. - Pulp prices slightly declined. Inventory is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and pay attention to import data. Consider buying on significant dips [45]. - Stock index futures rebounded. Due to geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties, the market may oscillate at a high level. Pay attention to domestic policy signals [46]. - Treasury bond futures closed up. Overseas budget expansion and domestic bond issuance acceleration may affect the market. The short - term long - side may maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and pay attention to curve - steepening opportunities [47].