4月25日至4月26日，中国基金报记者参与"机遇湾区""机遇香港""机遇澳门"主题采访活动，走访香港科 技园和香港数码港两大香港创科重镇，与园区企业及管理层进行了深入交流。尽管"逆全球化"浪潮甚嚣 尘上，但是，据记者观察，在"背靠祖国，联通世界"的香港，创科产业生态圈仍蓬勃发展。 内地、香港双向赋能 成批孵化"独角兽" 据香港科技园公司主席查毅超介绍，目前，包括思谋科技在内的约2200家科技企业在香港科学园从事研 发。香港科学园入驻科研人员约1.5万人，是香港最大科创生态圈。 【导读】背靠祖国 布局全球 香港创科产业生态圈蓬勃发展 创立第18个月便跻身独角兽行列的思谋科技创始人贾佳亚告诉记者，成立5年来，已通过自研工业大模 型和智能体技术，为全球300多家行业头部企业提供了服务与支持。这背后与香港、深圳的科创政策支 持、粤港澳大湾区产业深度融合息息相关。 贾佳亚表示，深圳与香港紧密合作，把香港国际化的人才资源、深厚的科研基础和前海健全的产业配 套、丰富的应用场景等优势结合起来，为思谋这样的科技企业打造了"制度最开放、成本最低、效率最 高"的发展平台，让思谋得以更好地利用两地优势，实现技术、资本与市场的深度融合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and characteristics of money, emphasizing the enduring value of gold as a form of hard currency in the context of economic changes and currency wars [1][4][11]. Group 1: Characteristics of Money - Money solves the problem of transferring economic value across time and space [1]. - Traditional barter systems fail due to mismatches in value, time, and space, necessitating a universally accepted medium of exchange [1]. - Any item can theoretically serve as money, but it must possess salability, meaning it should maintain value over time and be easily divisible and transportable [1]. - Successful currencies historically have mechanisms to limit their supply to preserve value [4]. Group 2: Hard vs. Soft Currency - Hard currency is defined by its difficulty to increase supply, while soft currency is easier to produce [2]. - The stock-to-flow ratio is a clear indicator of a currency's hardness, with soft currencies leading to wealth transfer to those holding hard currencies [2]. Group 3: Gold as a Hard Currency - Gold's total reserve is approximately 4.8 billion tons, with 99% located in hard-to-extract areas, making its supply growth limited [4]. - Gold is not artificially producible, and the cost to synthesize it is extremely high, further restricting supply [4]. - Gold's annual production growth is minimal, averaging 1-2%, with a maximum of 3% in peak years [4][5]. Group 4: Historical Price Trends and Comparisons - Recent gold prices surged from around $2000/oz to approximately $3400, reflecting a steeper increase compared to previous cycles [8]. - Silver has failed in the currency competition due to its higher availability and industrial demand, leading to a significant price disparity with gold [8]. Group 5: Current Economic Context and Gold Demand - Gold prices are influenced by macroeconomic factors, including trade wars, stock market fluctuations, and central bank policies [12]. - Major consumers of gold, such as China and India, have seen a decline in consumption, which may affect future demand [12]. - Central banks are increasing gold reserves while reducing dollar holdings, indicating a shift in currency strategy [12]. Group 6: Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to allocate 5-10% of an investment portfolio to gold, either in physical form or ETFs, while avoiding impulsive buying during price surges [12].

行 业 及 产 业 研究支持 朱珺逸 A0230521080004 zhujy@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱珺逸 (8621)23297818× zhujy@swsresearch.com 农林牧渔 2025 年 04 月 28 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 25Q1 公募配置比例降至历史低位，重视宠食企业业 绩兑现 看好 ——农林牧渔周观点（2025.4.21 -2025.4.27） 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 本周申万农林牧渔指数下跌 0.2%，沪深 300 上涨 0.4%。个股涨幅前五名：万辰集团（22.2%）、 中宠股份（15.5%）、乖宝宠物（15.3%）、瑞普生物（15.0%）、ST 佳沃（14.9%），跌幅前五名： 益客食品（-13.6%）、福成股份（-12.9%）、祖名股份（-10.9 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, gold prices rose and then fell with increased volatility. On Wednesday, the Shanghai gold price dropped by over 50 yuan/gram from its intraday high. The decline was due to Trump's statement on reducing China-US tariffs, which decreased the safe-haven demand for gold, and the large price increases since the beginning of the year and in April, leading to stronger profit-taking intentions among long positions [3][24]. - In the medium to long term, the main drivers for gold price increases are the safe-haven and asset allocation demands brought about by deglobalization and de-dollarization, and the upward trend remains unchanged. In the short term, the gold price's rise and fall have broken the strong pattern, with long positions more willing to sell, putting pressure on the gold price. Considering the approaching May Day holiday and the significant fluctuations during the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, the market may be cautious, and the gold price is expected to oscillate weakly before the holiday [3][24]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - No specific content provided other than a reference to the dollar index linkage chart [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From April 17th to April 25th, COMEX gold decreased by 0.33%, COMEX silver increased by 1.46%, SHFE gold futures decreased by 0.26%, and SHFE silver futures increased by 1.46%. The dollar index rose by 0.16%, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.18%. The 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.09, the S&P 500 rose by 4.59%, and US crude oil futures decreased by 1.99%. The COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 1.77%, and the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 1.69%. The SPDR gold ETF decreased by 6.02, and the iShare gold ETF increased by 1.91 [8] 2. The US Dollar and US Treasuries Hit Bottom and Rebounded, While Gold Rose and Then Fell - Since April, there has been a significant divergence between the US dollar index and the US Treasury yield, mainly due to the large-scale selling of US Treasuries in the financial market, which was caused by both the liquidity crisis and the pessimistic outlook on the US long-term economy [10]. - Trump's statement on reducing China-US tariffs improved the global macro environment, increased market risk appetite, led to the bottoming and rebound of the US dollar index and US Treasury prices, and caused gold to rise and then fall. The relaxation of US tariff policies also led to a significant rebound in US stocks, reduced market panic, and caused the gold price to fall from its high [10][13] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - As of April 22nd, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 12,811 contracts, short positions increased by 14,021 contracts, and net long positions decreased by 26,832 contracts. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [15] - In the first quarter, the holdings of major global gold ETFs increased significantly, especially after Trump took office, reflecting the increased safe-haven demand in the context of deglobalization [17] - Since April, the US Treasury yield spread has continued to widen, mainly because the market's pessimistic outlook on the US economy has led to the selling of 10-year US Treasuries, causing the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise continuously, while the 2-year US Treasury yield mainly depends on the Fed's interest rate [20] 4. Conclusion - The conclusion is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short-term decline and long-term upward trend of the gold price, as well as the expected weak oscillation before the holiday [24]

Group 1 - The AI competition between China and the US is intensifying, with the NITRD "Artificial Intelligence Action Plan" highlighting the irreconcilable nature of this rivalry, leading to accelerated de-globalization [1] - The Emerging Asia ETF (SH520580) has seen a significant increase, rising nearly 2.5% at the opening on April 28, driven by a surge of capital inflow [1][3] - Global trade growth is projected to slow to 1.2% in 2024, the lowest in a decade, with the risks of single markets becoming unsustainable [3] Group 2 - Emerging Asian markets are becoming strategic high grounds for global capital due to their regional economic integration, industrial capabilities, and resilient internal growth [3][5] - The Emerging Asia ETF has increased by 12% since April 8, with an average daily trading volume of 600 million yuan, reflecting strong investor interest [3][4] - ASEAN is expected to attract a 23% increase in foreign investment in 2024, with over 60% of investments focused on electronics, automotive, and new energy sectors [5] Group 3 - The demographic advantages of India and Indonesia, with a median age of 28.4 years and a population of 1.4 billion in India and 280 million in Indonesia, are expected to drive growth in e-commerce, fintech, and healthcare sectors [6] - Asian central banks are actively intervening to stabilize markets against dollar fluctuations, with India reducing interest rates by 50 basis points by 2025 [6] - The Emerging Asia ETF is strategically focused on leading companies in the four emerging countries, benefiting from trends in digital India and manufacturing upgrades [6][7] Group 4 - The ETF's underlying index has a low correlation of around 0.3 with US and A-shares, which can significantly reduce volatility when included in investment portfolios [7] - The ETF offers opportunities for premium arbitrage through T+0 trading mechanisms and the newly launched margin trading options, indicating substantial potential for returns [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that after the implementation of tariff policies in April 2025, gold prices are expected to experience significant volatility, driven by escalating US-China tariff tensions, a pressured US dollar, cautious Federal Reserve policy expectations, and heightened global risk aversion [1] - Long-term support for gold prices is attributed to safe-haven demand, with tariffs and geopolitical instability acting as key factors [1] - The recent downturn in US equities has led to a strong asset allocation demand for gold from European and American funds, making gold a significant beneficiary of the current US stock market decline [1] Group 2 - The narrative of a collapse in dollar credit is emerging, with structural dollar depreciation benefiting gold as a primary asset, alongside central bank gold purchases reflecting this trend [2] - The pricing framework for TIPS has become ineffective, as market risk aversion has begun to dominate gold pricing, influenced by changes in the dollar credit system and central bank purchasing behavior [5] - Central banks view gold as an alternative to the dollar, with geopolitical factors driving its pricing, and concerns over weak US stocks and the dollar contributing to the recent increase in global ETF gold holdings [6] Group 3 - The pricing logic of gold is likely changing, with gold no longer being merely an appendage to the dollar system but gradually becoming a rival to it [8] - The true signal for asset price revaluation is found in gold prices rather than in the RMB to USD exchange rate or interest rate paths, indicating that RMB gold prices are becoming the true monetary anchor for China [8] - Current RMB gold prices are more aligned with a "Shanghai-led" pricing model rather than the previous "USD gold price and exchange rate" triangular conversion [8]

Group 1 - The article discusses the resurgence of trade protectionism in the U.S. under Trump's administration, questioning whether it can lead to past economic successes [1] - Trump announced a 10% baseline tariff on all imported goods, effective April 5, with specific exemptions for a few North American countries [5] - The U.S. will impose reciprocal tariffs on its top 10 trade deficit countries, with Thailand facing the highest at 36%, followed by China at 34% and Indonesia at 32% [7] Group 2 - The average U.S. tariff rate is projected to rise from 2.5% to 9.8%, the highest since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, with an estimated annual revenue increase of $162 billion [9] - The total U.S. goods imports for 2024 are expected to be $3.7 trillion, with significant contributions from China (18.2%), the EU (14.6%), and Mexico (13.8%) [9] - Consumers are expected to face an annual cost increase of $218 billion, averaging $1,700 per household, particularly affecting electronics, auto parts, and textiles [9] Group 3 - To implement these tariffs, Trump declared a national emergency, granting him expanded powers to address the fiscal deficit and national debt [10] - The trade policies may adversely affect traditional U.S. allies and the American public, with significant impacts on Southeast Asian economies and high-end manufacturing in South Korea and Japan [10][11] - European automakers and other industries are also expected to suffer, with potential price increases and contract risks due to the new tariffs [11] Group 4 - The article highlights the collapse of the global trade cooperation system led by the U.S., with 127 out of 164 WTO member countries initiating temporary trade barriers [12] - It suggests that the current trade protectionism may lead to a new global order, moving away from the previous mercantilist approach [12] - The article concludes that true prosperity comes from open trade rather than high tariffs, emphasizing the need for countries to respond to these protectionist measures [12]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that after the unexpected tariff policy on April 2, 2025, which caused liquidity shocks, gold prices surged and briefly exceeded $3,500 per ounce, before quickly retreating to $3,300 due to fluctuating attitudes from Trump regarding tariffs. The medium to long-term trend for gold prices remains upward, with a projected range of $3,209 to $3,905 per ounce in 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Recent Gold Price Trends - Recent rapid increases in gold prices are characterized by significant volatility, driven by physical demand, Asian capital inflows, and a substantial decline in the US dollar index [2]. - Gold price volatility has risen sharply, currently at the 89.2 percentile historically, as uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies has led to increased safe-haven investments in gold [2]. - The divergence between COMEX gold net long positions and gold price trends indicates a shift from speculative pricing to a supply-demand pricing model, with physical investment funds like SPDR Gold ETF increasing their holdings [2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - In the short term, after adjustments, a favorable allocation window for gold is anticipated, with a focus on monitoring gold price volatility trends [3]. - If Trump's tariff stance significantly eases or if negotiations with other countries progress positively, gold prices may experience high-level fluctuations and a downward trend in volatility [3]. - Key fundamental events to watch include the progress of US tariff policy negotiations and short-term fluctuations in central bank gold purchases, which have been a core driver of gold price increases in 2023 [3]. Group 3: Medium-Term Considerations - The ongoing decline in the credibility of the US dollar and its reserve status may lead to a sustained increase in gold price levels [4]. - The backdrop of de-globalization suggests a long-term downtrend for the US dollar index, exacerbated by rising fiscal deficits and the challenges of implementing tax cuts [4]. - High policy uncertainty surrounding Trump's tariff policies is expected to continue supporting gold prices, as the current environment is markedly different from 2018 [4]. Group 4: Quantitative Analysis - The quantitative model projects that gold prices will fluctuate between $3,209 and $3,905 per ounce in 2025, based on a framework that has shown a high correlation with historical gold prices [5]. - The model identifies four key pricing factors for gold since 2022: global central bank gold reserves, US fiscal deficit rates, economic policy uncertainty in the US, and the real yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds [5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the **commodities market**, highlighting the current trends and historical comparisons to the 1970s and 1930s [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Globalization and Economic Trends**: - Increasing trade frictions are exacerbating the trend of de-globalization, resembling the 1930s and 1970s, with the current situation more akin to the 1970s stagflation environment [1][2]. - The current asset price structure reflects a stagflation bull market, with significant increases in gold and copper prices, while the dollar and U.S. stock markets are declining [1][4]. 2. **Supply Shocks**: - Supply shocks are a natural outcome of the de-globalization trend, with resource-rich countries implementing export bans on commodities like nickel, bismuth, cobalt, and tin [1][5]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1978 weather extremes and Middle Eastern geopolitical uncertainties that caused supply shocks [5]. 3. **Demand Dynamics**: - Despite economic downturns, the apparent consumption of industrial metals like copper and aluminum has not significantly decreased, indicating structural demand stability [8]. - Strategic reserve policies, similar to the 1979 U.S. mineral reserve amendments, are driving commodity demand upward [8][9]. 4. **Geopolitical Influences**: - The current geopolitical landscape, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led to increased inventory levels across industries, with countries like China, the U.S., and Europe boosting resource strategic reserves [9]. 5. **Dollar Supply and Inflation**: - The oversupply of dollars, driven by fiscal expansion, has historically led to rising resource prices, a trend that is currently being observed due to extensive fiscal stimulus measures [10][11]. - The current U.S. national debt exceeds 120% of GDP, significantly impacting interest expenses and indicating a more severe dollar crisis compared to the 1980s [14]. 6. **Comparison with Historical Context**: - The current situation is contrasted with the 1970s, where the latter part of that decade saw a commodity bull market followed by a prolonged downturn, while the present may mark the beginning of a long-term commodity bull market [13][16]. 7. **Investment Recommendations**: - It is advised to invest in dollar-denominated short-duration assets like gold and copper, as their pricing is expected to rise due to the weakening dollar [17]. - Long-duration assets priced in RMB are also recommended, anticipating an increase in the value of future cash flows due to China's rising power and currency appreciation [17]. Other Important Insights - The long-term impact of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could lead to a 1-2% increase in U.S. CPI, affecting inflation dynamics beyond his term [16]. - The transition of certain metals from industrial to financial assets due to the depreciation of the dollar index has increased their market demand [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility of gold prices and provides strategies for investors who experience price declines after purchasing gold, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a calm and informed approach to investment decisions [4][5]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Fluctuations - Gold prices have been influenced by geopolitical events, such as Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve and interest rate policies, leading to significant price swings [4]. - The recent price drop of gold, which fell sharply after reaching a historical high of 830 yuan per gram, illustrates the sensitivity of gold prices to market sentiment and political statements [4]. Group 2: Strategies for Investors - Investors are advised to remain calm and avoid hasty decisions to sell when prices drop, as short-term fluctuations do not necessarily indicate long-term trends [7]. - It is crucial for investors to assess their investment goals and risk tolerance, as those investing for the long term may not need to react to short-term price changes [8]. - The option to average down by purchasing more gold at lower prices is discussed, but investors should be cautious and ensure that the price drop is temporary before committing additional funds [9]. - Diversifying investments across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, can help mitigate risks associated with gold price declines [12]. - Staying informed about market dynamics, including global economic conditions and central bank policies, is essential for making informed investment decisions regarding gold [13]. Group 3: Specific Considerations for Gold Jewelry - For those who purchased gold jewelry, the article notes that the value is not solely based on the gold price, as it also includes craftsmanship and brand premiums, making it less sensitive to gold price fluctuations [16].