交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 2025年12月15日 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.5万吨，环比增长4.17%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1359元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.68%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.31万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为188元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为624.45元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，还比减少2.76%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/15 甲醇聚烯烃早报 | 甲 醇 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 动力煤期 | | 江苏现货 华南现货 | 鲁南折盘 | 西南折盘面 | 河北折盘 | 西北折盘 | CFR中国 | CFR东南 | | 进口利润 主力基差 | 盘面MTO | | | 货 | | | 面 | | 面 | 面 | | 亚 | | | 利润 | | 2025/12/0 8 | 801 | 2088 | 2068 | 2425 | 2465 | 2435 | 2595 | 243 | 317 | -10 | 0 | -1092 | | 2025/12/0 9 | 801 | 2090 | 2053 | 2423 | 2465 | 2385 | 2590 | 243 | 317 | -15 | 5 | -1106 | | 2025/12/1 0 | 801 | 2095 | 2048 | 2435 | 2465 ...

研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 15 日星期一 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货窄幅震荡，截至夜盘收盘2601合约跌幅0.04%，收于2242元/吨 | | | | 。 | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示截至12月12日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约153万吨。 | | | | | 北方港口贸易商陆续执行前期签订合同，库存大幅低于去年同期；广东港口玉米库 | | | | | 存45万吨，内贸玉米日均出货在3.4万吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示截至2025年第50周末，广州港口谷物库存量为128 | | | | | .40万吨，环比增加27.76%， ...

橡胶：多单持有 橡胶期货 研究结论 策略周报（12.8—12.12） | 分析师： | 金泽彬 | | --- | --- | | 研究品种: | 天然橡胶 | | 从业资格证号: | F3048432 | 请详细阅读后文免责声明 【 】 衍 生 品 本周市场探低回升，下方支撑较为强烈 市场有突破迹象 多单持有 策略周报 一、期货行情回顾 二、现货行情回顾 上海云南 24 年国营全乳胶含 9%税报价 14950 元/吨，较上周上涨 300 元/吨。 青岛保税区烟片胶报价 2100 美元/吨，较上周上涨 30 美元/吨。 上海地区 BR9000 报价 10850 元/吨，较上周上涨 275 元/吨。 三、库存情况回顾 本周上期所库存增加，小计库存增加 12324 吨至 105542 吨，期货库存增加 11460 吨至 56990 吨。 青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加，库存连续增加，这会给价格上涨带来压 力。 四、市场结构 本周基差略走强，因现货上涨幅度更大。 五、预测及操作策略 本周天胶天胶回落，技术形态再次走坏。 | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | -- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Nickel is recommended as a short position and is expected to continue its downward trend. The trading strategies include testing the previous low for single - side trading and selling out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level. Stainless steel follows the nickel price, with prices in a low - level oscillation due to weak supply and demand and weak cost support [1][5][9] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory Nickel - Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 314,000 tons, with an increase of 2,038 tons this week. LME inventory is 253,000 tons, a decrease of 264 tons this week, and SMM's six - region social inventory is 59,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,122 tons [11] Stainless Steel - Social inventory of stainless steel is higher than the same period in previous years [15] Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis Nickel - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that refined nickel production from January to November increased by 19% year - on - year to 361,300 tons. In November, pure nickel production decreased by 10,000 tons month - on - month to 25,800 tons, and it is expected to slightly rebound to 27,400 tons in December. From January to October 2025, net imports of domestic refined nickel were 47,200 tons, compared with net exports of 23,200 tons in the same period last year. In October, there was a net export, with Russian nickel imports only about 1,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the domestic refined nickel supply was 383,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54% [23] - **Demand**: From January to November, pure nickel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 268,000 tons. Electroplating consumption declined seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and overall consumption slowed down. SMM's survey shows that the PMI of nickel downstream industries in November remained below 50. In December, the production schedules of stainless steel and ternary materials decreased significantly month - on - month, electroplating was still in the off - season, and alloy consumption alone was not enough to support demand, so pure nickel consumption continued to decline month - on - month [26] Stainless Steel - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Nickel ore prices remained stable with a slight decline. In November 2025, Indonesia imported about 1.65 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, a month - on - month decrease of about 1.25 million tons (a decrease of 43.08%), and a year - on - year increase of about 1.15 million tons (an increase of 229.99%). In December, the domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat month - on - month, and the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia continued to decline slightly, with a slight decrease in CIF transaction prices [28] - **NPI**: NPI was in a loss state, and there was a game between upstream and downstream. High - nickel iron prices continued to fall, and some production lines switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, resulting in a significant increase in high - grade nickel matte production in November [30][75] - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices rebounded this week. Tsingshan Group's long - term procurement price for high - carbon ferrochromium in December 2025 was 8,395 yuan/50 - base tons (cash - inclusive ex - works price), a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan, and the Tianjin Port receiving price was 150 yuan lower per 50 - base tons. The spot price was 7,950 yuan/50 - base tons [42] - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: Cold - rolled costs were inverted. On December 12th, the estimated cold - rolled cash cost was around 12,950 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reached 12,450 yuan/ton [44][46] - **Supply**: According to Steel Union's forecast, the combined stainless - steel crude steel output of China and India from January to November was 41.353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In December, the production schedules of China and India decreased significantly month - on - month, mainly in the 200 - series and 400 - series, while the 300 - series decreased by less than 20,000 tons month - on - month [54] - **Demand**: The ship - building industry had the highest growth rate and provided support. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of ship - building plate output from January to October reached 29%, while the growth rates in other terminal fields were not optimistic [56] New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 1.522 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, with a penetration rate of 53.2%. From January to November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 12.466 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. According to the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 185,000, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 62.2%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 42.4% to 111.42 GWh from January to November, and a projected month - on - month decrease of 2% in December [62] - **Overseas Market**: According to CleanTechnica statistics, from January to October 2025, the cumulative global new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.7% year - on - year to 16.39 million, compared with a 25.5% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In the same period, European new energy vehicle sales increased by 29.4% year - on - year to 3.092 million, and US new energy vehicle sales increased by 6.8% year - on - year to 1.323 million. The US cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1st, leading to a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still provided subsidies for new energy vehicles and had carbon - emission requirements, which stimulated sales growth this year. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2025, China's total new energy vehicle exports were 2.283 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [68] Nickel Sulfate Market - **Production**: From January to November, China's nickel sulfate production decreased by 6.9% year - on - year to 319,000 tons, and the production of ternary precursors decreased by 16% year - on - year to 648,000 tons, while the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 17% year - on - year to 737,000 tons. After December, entering the off - season, the demand for nickel sulfate may slow down [70] - **Raw Materials**: From January to November, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 45% year - on - year to 4.05 million tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 25% year - on - year to 1.89 million tons. The price of sulfur increased significantly this year, raising the cost of hydrometallurgy and the cost of MHP, while the price of MHP remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production. Due to the continuous decline in NPI prices, some production lines switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, resulting in a significant increase in high - grade nickel matte production in November [75] Pure Nickel - The significant reduction in pure nickel production narrowed the domestic surplus [76]

责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2025年12月15日，早盘开盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌互现，氧化铝、焦煤、工业硅、烧碱涨超3%，多 晶硅、乙二醇、聚氯乙烯（PVC）涨近2%。跌幅方面，国际铜、沪银、沪铜跌超2%，碳酸锂、沪铝、 铝合金跌超1%，棕榈油、菜油、铁矿石、豆一、豆油跌近1%。 | 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 25.47 | 荣价 | 1 ×20088 | 共产 | を | 成交量 | 薄味 | 持位置 | 日常仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 司化铝2601 M | 2555 | 220 | 2555 | 2556 | 3.74% | 214 | 45 | 402242 | 92 | 215017 | -26550 | | 2 | 焦煤2605 M | 1064.0 | 1945 | 1063.5 | 1064.0 | 3.45% | 63 | 924 | 912794 | 35.5 | ...

国泰君安期货研究所·王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 日期：2025年12月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铝：年末宏观扰动增多，22000关口再度回落 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 资料来源：国泰君安期货研究 2 铝&氧化铝产业链周度报告 ◆ 中期来看，我们依然持有对铝价趋势向上的观点，今年4季度迄今市场对于铝金属颇具想象力的定价逻辑，在2026年仍将得以延续。 2026年度平衡上看，我们目前预估： ◆ 基准情形下：2026年按照产需同比增速分别在1.7%、2.1%，净进口240万吨估算，预计全年约短缺12.4万吨。1季度传统累库高点位 置或将接近103.7万吨，相较今年年底的累库幅度最高预计达到47万吨，略高于去年同期39.1万吨，累库压力应比较可控。 ◆ 乐观情形下：2026年按照产需同比增速分别在1.7%、2.6%，净进口250万吨估算，预计全年约短缺25.8万吨。1季度传统累库高点位 置或将接近97.7万吨，相较今年 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The coal mine operating rate is stable, with the Erdos coal mine operating rate at 76% and the Yulin area at 46% as of December 12. Coal production has recovered, but demand has declined, leading to continuous drops in pit - mouth prices. Coal - to - methanol profit is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol supply remains loose. The US dollar price has slightly increased, with most Iranian plants shut down due to gas restrictions. Non - Iranian production has increased, and the import forecast for January has been raised to around 1.4 million tons [4]. - The MTO device operating rate has recovered, but there are differences in the operating conditions of various plants. The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international plant operating rate has declined, and the methanol market will continue to fluctuate [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: The coal price is weakly falling, the coal - to - methanol profit is stable, the domestic supply is loose, and the inland MTO operating rate is stable. The methanol market is affected by factors such as international plant shutdowns, import disturbances, and Fed's interest - rate decisions, and will continue to oscillate [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, short - sell 01 contract and gradually build long positions in 05 contract at low prices; for arbitrage, focus on positive spreads; in the over - the - counter market, sell put options [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of December 11, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load was 76.64%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week and 1.50 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 68.87%, up 0.61 percentage points from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From November 29 to December 5, 2025, the international production was 931,455 tons, down 42,240 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 63.85%, down 2.90% from last week [5]. - **Supply - Import**: From December 4 to December 10, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 247,800 tons, including 229,700 tons from foreign vessels and 18,100 tons from domestic vessels [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of December 11, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 77.54%, down 9.94 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 90.2%, and the MTO industry operating rate declined [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 8.98%, up 13.96% week - on - week; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 73.89%; the formaldehyde operating rate was 41.49% [5]. - **Demand - Direct Sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 42,800 tons, down 41,700 tons from the previous statistical date, a week - on - week decrease of 49.35% [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The production enterprise inventory was 352,800 tons, down 8,700 tons from the previous period, and the sample enterprise order backlog was 207,500 tons, down 32,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 13.45% [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of December 10, the total port inventory was 1.2344 million tons, down 115,000 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 108,200 tons, and that in South China decreased by 6,800 tons [5]. - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi was 380 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis was stable [5]. - **Spot Prices**: The price in Taicang was 2,090 yuan/ton (+20), and the price in the north line was 1,950 yuan/ton (-40) [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that methanol will mainly continue an oscillating trend. The international device operating rate has declined, with most Iranian devices shut down due to gas restrictions, leading to a slight disturbance in imports. Domestically, the supply is loose, the coal - made profit is stable, and the MTO operation in the inland is stable. Although the Fed's interest - rate decision in December is uncertain and domestic commodities are fluctuating widely, the impact on methanol futures is weakening [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: The futures market oscillated, closing at 2067 (-10/+0.48%) [2]. - **Spot Market**: There are different quotes in production areas, consumption areas, southwest regions, and ports. For example, in production areas, the price in Inner Mongolia's southern line is 1940 yuan/ton, and in the northern line is 1960 yuan/ton [2]. Important Information As of 14:00 on December 10, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol during the period from December 4 to December 10, 2025, was 24.78 tons [3]. Logical Analysis - **Supply Side**: The profit of coal - made methanol is around 260 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply is continuously loose [4]. - **Import Side**: The US dollar price has risen slightly. Most Iranian devices are shut down due to gas restrictions, and the non - Iranian operation rate has increased. The expected import volume in January is adjusted up to about 1.4 million tons [4]. - **Demand Side**: The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, and the operation of some MTO devices is stable or under - loaded [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is strong; the inventory of inland enterprises fluctuates within a narrow range [4]. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral**: Short - sell 01 contract in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity to lay out long positions in the 05 contract [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [7]. - **Options**: Sell call options [7].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 支撑压力并存 玉米区间运行为主 天气支撑现货 盘面维持震荡整理 弱现实强预期 鸡蛋合约近弱远强 2025年12月12日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 本周玉米期货分析逻辑及策略建议 本周观点：支撑压力并存 玉米区间运行为主 【重要资讯】 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示12日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区收购均价为2114元/吨， 较前一日跌4元/吨；华北地区收购均价2275元/吨，较前一日涨5元/吨。 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示12日南北港口价格小幅上涨。锦州港15%水二等玉米收购价2250- 2270元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨；蛇口港散粮成交价2420元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨。 3、12月12日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日减1350手，共计57355手。 4、国家统计局今日发布2025年全年粮食实现增产丰收。2025年，全国粮食产量14297.5亿斤， 短期来看，上有季节性供给压力、下有备货情绪支撑，现货预计或处于区间运行；中 ...