Core Insights - The global merchandise trade barometer index rose from 102.8 in March to 103.5 in June, marking the highest level since August 2021 and remaining above the baseline of 100, indicating ongoing trade growth [1] - Strong growth in global merchandise trade in the early months of the year was driven by importers' anticipatory purchasing behavior in response to expected tariff policy adjustments [1] - In contrast, the new export orders index fell to 97.9, dropping below the baseline of 100 and entering a contraction zone, suggesting a potential slowdown in global trade growth later in the year [1] Trade Dynamics - The global merchandise trade barometer serves as an early warning signal for short-term trade trends by collecting trade statistics from major economies [1] - The report highlights a stark contrast between surging import demand and weak export orders, reflecting an imbalance in the current global trade structure [1] - Export orders were the only category to show negative growth, indicating the fragility of trade growth despite strong import activity [1] Future Outlook - The World Trade Organization warns that increasing uncertainty in trade policies globally could exacerbate the risk of trade contraction [2] - Potential large-scale tariff implementations could pose significant challenges to global trade [2] - While short-term growth in global merchandise trade is observed, the medium-term outlook faces numerous challenges due to rising uncertainty factors in the global economic environment [2]

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices showed a strong performance, with spot silver rising nearly 1% to $36.63 per ounce, reaching a high of $36.81 since June 18, indicating potential for further increases if it breaks above $37.50 [1] - Platinum and palladium prices surged, with palladium increasing over 8% to $1,136.68 per ounce, a new high since October 31, 2024, and platinum rising 5.1% to $1,423.26 per ounce, close to its highest level since September 2014 [1] - The rise in platinum and palladium prices is primarily driven by speculative buying, as investors believe the market is tight and prices are undervalued [1] - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) reported increased demand for platinum jewelry in China, exacerbating the supply-demand gap and pushing prices higher [1] - Short-term speculation may lead platinum prices to spike to $1,500, but a subsequent drop to $1,200 is anticipated, while palladium may fall to around $1,050 by mid-July [1] Economic Context - The performance of gold prices is closely linked to U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve policies, with the market optimistic about potential interest rate cuts [2] - The U.S. stock market saw a broad increase, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq approaching historical highs, reflecting optimism about three expected rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - Mixed economic data presents a challenge, with Q1 GDP revised down to a contraction of 0.5% and consumer spending growth downgraded from 1.2% to 0.5%, indicating weakening economic momentum [2] - The labor market shows signs of strain, with initial jobless claims rising to the highest level since November 2021, suggesting a slowdown in hiring due to tariff policies and economic uncertainty [2] - Durable goods orders rebounded by 16.4% due to strong demand for commercial aircraft, but overall economic activity signals remain soft [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated a wait-and-see approach regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [3] - Richmond Fed President Barkin and San Francisco Fed President Daly indicated that tariff effects could justify a rate cut in the fall, but a July cut is considered premature [3] - Market expectations show a 90% probability of a September rate cut, while the probability for July is only 20%, highlighting a divergence in views [3] - The importance of PCE data is emphasized as a potential catalyst for short-term gold price fluctuations [3] - The U.S. dollar and Treasury market performance also significantly influence gold prices, with the dollar falling to its lowest levels against the euro and pound since 2021 [3] Market Trends - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, suggesting strategies for support long positions and resistance short positions [6] - Technical indicators for silver show K-line operating near the lower band, with support at $35.69 [7] - MACD indicators suggest a downward trend, with market activity decreasing, advising caution in trading and recommending light positions [7] - Suggested trading strategies include placing short positions near $37.00 with a stop loss at $37.38 and a take profit target between $35.90 and $335.60 [7]

Economic Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the US economy contracted by 0.5% on a year-over-year basis, which was below expectations and undermined confidence in sustained economic growth [1][3] - The contraction is attributed to complex structural issues within the economy, with tariff policies significantly impacting both imports and exports [1][5] Trade Dynamics - The US saw an import growth adjustment to 37.9% and export growth adjusted to 0.4%, with net imports dragging down GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [3] - The reliance on imports has increased, exacerbating the trade deficit and highlighting the imbalance in the economic structure [3][6] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, contributed only approximately 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the first quarter, indicating a decline in consumer purchasing power [3][5] - Consumer confidence has weakened, particularly in an uncertain economic environment, which has become a significant factor in hindering economic growth [3][8] Tariff Policy Impact - The "America First" trade policy implemented by the Trump administration aimed to protect domestic manufacturing but resulted in increased prices for imported goods, raising production costs for US businesses [5][6] - This policy has inadvertently shifted the burden onto consumers, leading to a slowdown in overall economic growth [5][8] Global Economic Uncertainty - The interconnectedness of the US economy with global markets means that uncertainties in other major economies, such as China and the EU, directly affect US export growth [6][8] - The slowdown in global economic growth has led many US companies to reduce investment and production plans, further contributing to domestic economic contraction [6][8] Structural Issues - The current economic challenges reflect long-term structural problems, with the US economy's dependence on external markets making it vulnerable to global uncertainties [8] - Addressing these structural issues, including reducing reliance on imports and adjusting trade strategies, is crucial for sustainable economic growth in the future [8]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to multiple factors, including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, upcoming U.S. inflation data, and the impact of tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration [1][3][4] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - Spot gold is currently trading around $3,323.28 per ounce, showing slight declines in early Asian trading [1] - On Thursday, spot gold closed at $3,327.60 per ounce, with a minor drop of approximately 0.13% [3] - The recent easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has reduced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, contributing to a price decline in recent trading sessions [3][4] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data, which is seen as a key indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [3][4] - Tariff policies may lead to higher inflation expectations, potentially delaying interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which could exert downward pressure on gold prices [3][4] - Despite the pressures, there is a prevailing expectation that the Federal Reserve may initiate rate cuts in September, with a total of 50 basis points expected by the end of the year, which could support gold prices in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upcoming PCE data will be a critical driver for gold prices; lower-than-expected inflation could increase the likelihood of rate cuts, supporting gold, while higher-than-expected inflation may lead to further delays in rate cuts, putting pressure on gold [4] - Long-term factors such as a low-interest-rate environment, geopolitical uncertainties, and potential dollar weakness provide structural support for gold [4] - The speculative interest in platinum and palladium may divert funds away from the gold market, necessitating close monitoring of capital flows within the precious metals sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasizes its independence from political pressures, particularly in response to President Trump's calls for rapid interest rate cuts, opting instead for a patient approach to assess the economic impact of tariff policies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Environment - Trump's high tariff policies aim to reshape U.S. manufacturing and reduce trade deficits but have led to increased costs for consumers and businesses, contributing to inflationary pressures [3][6]. - The current U.S. economy appears stable, with inflation rising but not yet spiraling out of control, as the Federal Reserve maintains a high benchmark interest rate of 4.25% to 4.50% since December [3][6]. - Powell's focus on preventing temporary price spikes from becoming sustained inflation reflects the Fed's role as a guardian of monetary policy [3][4]. Group 2: Political Dynamics - Trump's public pressure on Powell for interest rate cuts is seen as a political maneuver to boost his support among voters, risking economic overheating and potential crises [4][9]. - The Fed's independence is crucial for avoiding short-term political pressures that could destabilize the economy, with Powell's stance serving as a model for global economic management [7][9]. Group 3: Global Implications - The interconnectedness of the global economy means that U.S. policy decisions, such as interest rate changes, can have far-reaching effects, potentially destabilizing financial markets if not handled cautiously [6][10]. - Powell's cautious approach is viewed as stabilizing for global markets amid rising geopolitical risks and trade tensions, helping to maintain the dollar's status as a global reserve currency [6][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Upcoming economic data, including employment, manufacturing, consumer confidence, and inflation indicators, will significantly influence the Fed's decision-making process [9][10]. - The ability of Powell and the Fed to maintain policy independence and rationality will be critical for both U.S. and global economic stability moving forward [9][10].

新华财经北京6月27日电根据路透社进行的一项调查，在经历了5月份的下降之后，韩国6月份的出口预 计会因为科技产品需求强劲而出现反弹。然而，面对美国关税政策的不确定性，经济学家们对此保持警 惕。 在6月23日至6月26日期间进行的调查中，10位经济学家的预估中值显示，韩国6月份出口预计同比增长 4.7%。这与5月份1.3%的降幅形成了对比，标志着四个月以来首次下降后的恢复。 （文章来源：新华财经） 与此同时，调查还预测韩国6月进口将增长6.9%，达到自2024年7月以来的最快增速，相比之下，5月份 的进口则下降了5.3%。韩国作为每月首个公布贸易数据的主要出口经济体，计划于7月1日发布6月份的 数据。 本月前20天的数据提供了积极信号，其中半导体出口激增21.8%，汽车出口增长9.2%，推动整体出口增 长至8.3%。尽管如此，韩国对中国出口却出现了1.0%的下滑，而对美国的出口则增长了4.3%。 为了应对关税带来的不确定性，韩国首席贸易谈判代表本周访问了美国，并与美方官员进行了贸易谈 判，双方重申了致力于尽早达成关税协议的决心。不过，Meritz Securities的经济学家Stephen Lee警告 说：" ...

Group 1 - The US stock market indices collectively rose, with the Nasdaq up 0.97%, the Dow Jones up 0.94%, and the S&P 500 up 0.8%, marking near historical closing highs for both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 [1] - Major tech stocks mostly increased, with Netflix, Amazon, and Meta rising over 2%, while Microsoft, Google, and Intel rose over 1%. Nvidia continued to reach new highs, while Apple and Tesla saw slight declines [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index, which tracks Chinese stocks, fell by 0.29%, with mixed performances among popular Chinese concept stocks. Xiaomi Group's ADR surged nearly 10% after announcing significant pre-orders for its electric vehicle [1] Group 2 - The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 0.5% annualized decline in real GDP for Q1, reversing a previous growth of 2.4% in Q4 2024, marking the first economic contraction in three years [2] - The decline in GDP was primarily due to a significant 37.9% increase in imports, the fastest growth since 2020, which negatively impacted GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points, and a 4.6% decrease in government spending, the largest drop since 1986 [2] - Durable goods orders in May saw a preliminary month-on-month increase of 16.4%, the largest since July 2014, driven by a 230% increase in non-defense aircraft orders [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that lower-than-expected inflation data or a weak job market could lead to earlier interest rate cuts, with market expectations for three rate cuts within the year [2][3] - Richmond Fed President Barkin warned that tariffs could raise inflation in the coming months but suggested that the impact would not be as severe as previously experienced [2][3] - Goldman Sachs cautioned investors to be wary of low-quality stocks in the current bullish market, as their price increases may be driven by short-sellers covering positions rather than strong fundamentals [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic innovative drug sector has shifted from a previous upward trend to a phase of volatility, with market participants showing a tendency to buy more as prices drop, indicating a potential long-term investment interest despite short-term fluctuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - From June 16 to June 25, medical-themed ETFs saw a net inflow of over 6.4 billion yuan, with several leading innovative drug ETFs attracting more than 1.5 billion yuan [1]. - Despite a significant drop of 8.51% in the Hong Kong innovative drug index from June 16 to June 20, funds continued to flow into innovative drug ETFs, with net inflows of 8.89 billion yuan and 7.10 billion yuan for specific ETFs during that period [2]. - The innovative drug sector experienced a brief recovery at the beginning of the week, with continued strong inflows into ETFs, totaling over 6.4 billion yuan since June 16 [2]. Group 2: Company Developments - On June 26, the innovative drug sector faced another decline, influenced by the announcement from Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals regarding a licensing deal with Vor Bio, which raised concerns about the actual value of business development (BD) deals compared to market expectations [3]. - Rongchang Biopharmaceuticals will receive 125 million USD in cash and warrants, with potential milestone payments reaching up to 4.105 billion USD, but the initial payment was perceived as low, leading to market skepticism [3]. - Following the announcement, Rongchang's A-shares fell over 18% and H-shares dropped over 11%, impacting several ETFs heavily invested in the stock [3]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the innovative drug sector's high volatility necessitates a longer-term investment perspective, as short-term trading often fails to yield satisfactory returns [5]. - Companies with higher confidence, better competitive positioning, and more complete business logic are viewed as more favorable investment targets in the innovative drug space [5]. - The innovative drug sector's underlying logic for recent growth includes asset revaluation and the influx of multinational corporations (MNCs) into China for business development opportunities [4].

一则利好消息彻底引爆。 26日晚间，美股三大指数震荡走强，微型自动驾驶技术公司Cyngn股价一度暴涨超539%，多次触及熔断。消息 面上，该公司被英伟达的博客文章提及，其被列为使用英伟达Isaac平台开发工业应用自动解决方案的创新企 业之一。另外，该公司在 Automatica 2025 机器人与自动化展会上宣布与英伟达合作。 与此同时，一系列宏观数据也持续搅动美股市场。据美国劳工部最新发布的数据，6月14日当周，美国续请失 业救济人数升至197.4万人，高于市场预期，为2021年11月以来的最高水平。意味着，美国就业市场正在放 缓。 随着美股三大指数不断逼近历史最高点，部分投资者出现了担心错过上涨行情的情绪。高盛警告称，投资者对 质量较低的股票尤其应该谨慎对待，因为这些股票的股价上涨是由被迫回补头寸的卖空者推动的，而不是由积 极的企业基本面推动的。 暴涨、熔断 北京时间6月26日晚间，美股三大指数集体走高，截至22:40，道指涨0.66%，纳指涨0.56%，标普500指数涨 0.56%，逼近历史新高。 美股大型科技股多数走强，英伟达涨超1.2%，盘中再度创出历史新高；Meta、博通涨超1%，微软、亚马逊、 ...

美联储巴尔金：在不确定性中企业仍处于观望状态。 ...