Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall domestic bean futures prices follow the fluctuations of the external market. The soybean futures prices in the US are still affected by weather themes and trade risks, maintaining a trend of being more likely to rise than fall. The main trading logic in the short - term is the weather theme, and the linkage between the domestic and foreign markets has increased. The short - term trend is mainly volatile and strong [6]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil remains strong, and the supply - demand environment has significantly improved, which supports the rebound of Malaysian palm oil and the domestic palm oil futures prices. If the trading logic of oils returns to fundamentals, palm oil is expected to become the leading variety [8]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic includes import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand. With the continuous release of optimistic signals in Sino - US trade relations, the expectation of good US soybean exports is increasing. The short - term trend is mainly volatile and strong [6][7]. Palm Oil (P) - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic involves Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventories, and substitution demand. The strong export of Malaysian palm oil and improved supply - demand environment support the domestic palm oil futures prices [7][8]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: Oscillatory; Medium - term: Oscillatory; Intraday: Oscillatory and strong; Reference view: Oscillatory and strong. Core logic includes US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年6月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：中美谈判取得进展，互降关税。ICAC6月报：25/26年度产量2600万吨，消 费2570万吨。海关：4月纺织品服装出口241.9亿美元，同比增1.5%。4月份我国棉花进 口6万吨，同比减少82.2%；棉纱进口12万吨，同比减少1.4%。农村部4月24/25年度： 产量616万吨，进口150万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存831万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14544，基差1279（09合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：中国农业部24/25年度4月预计期末库存831万吨；偏空。 4、盘 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.06%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.08%, and ChiNext Index up 0.08% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,378.22 points with a slight increase of 0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index reached 10,152.55 points, up 0.08% [2] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.22% to 42,427.74 points, while the S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.01% to 5,970.81 points [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - Huatai Securities reported a 2.9% month-on-month increase in lithium battery production for June, with total battery production reaching 107.7 GWh, driven by demand from new energy vehicles and favorable export conditions [4] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) anticipates a continued recovery in the small home appliance sector, supported by trade-in policies and low base effects, leading to improved profitability for companies in this space [5] - Tianfeng Securities indicated that the bond market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, with potential trading opportunities arising from adjustments in monetary policy and market dynamics [6] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Huaxi Securities noted that some funds may have begun to position themselves in the technology sector, driven by positive market sentiment regarding U.S.-China trade relations, despite potential risks from fluctuating tariff policies [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese airlines are negotiating a significant order for hundreds of Airbus aircraft, marking a potential shift in the aviation market dynamics between China and the U.S. [2][5] Group 1: Potential Order Details - The ongoing negotiations may involve approximately 300 aircraft, with estimates ranging from 200 to 500 units [5] - The deal could include a substantial number of wide-body aircraft, particularly the A330neo model [6] - If finalized, this order could become the largest aircraft purchase in China's history and rank among the largest globally [6] Group 2: Market Context - Boeing has not secured any major orders from China since 2017, facing challenges due to trade tensions and safety concerns surrounding the 737 Max [6][7] - In contrast, Airbus has been gaining a competitive edge in the Chinese market, highlighted by a previous order of about 300 single-aisle aircraft valued at approximately $37 billion in 2022 [6] - The evolving trade policies under both the Biden and Trump administrations have further pushed China towards Airbus [7] Group 3: Implications of the Order - The potential deal is seen as a symbolic achievement for China-EU relations and may signal China's trade stance towards the U.S. [5] - The upcoming visit of European leaders to China could coincide with the finalization of this order, emphasizing the importance of this transaction [5][6] - The recovery of the global aviation industry and ongoing technological advancements will continue to influence the competitive landscape of the aerospace manufacturing sector [8]

2025 年 06 月 04 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：美豆反弹、菜粕偏弱，豆粕或仍震荡 豆一：盘面震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4134 | +15（+0.36%） | 4122 -8（-0.19%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2935 -31 | （-1.05%） | 2947 +8（+0.27%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1041 | +6.5（+0.63%） | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 294.3 -0.2 | （-0.07%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 较昨-100至-70； 2850～2880， +20或持平； 7-9月M2509-40/-20/+0； | 6-7月M2509-60， | 持平； 较昨 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the China-U.S. trade relations and their implications for global trade dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **China-U.S. Trade Relations** - The trade relationship remains complex with mutual dependence despite friction. China is enhancing trade cooperation with ASEAN, EU, and other non-U.S. regions to maintain export resilience, employing a transshipment trade strategy effectively [1][3][5]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs** - The imposition of reciprocal tariffs has increased U.S. import costs, with average tariffs around 16% and potential increases to 20%. In contrast, some Chinese exports face tariffs as high as 50%, negatively impacting U.S. economic conditions [4][5]. 3. **Short-term Export Performance** - China's exports are expected to grow by 7% in Q2 2025, but a decline is anticipated in the latter half of the year due to the expansion of global tariffs. The overall GDP forecast for China is approximately 4.75% for the year [9][10]. 4. **U.S. Economic Growth Projections** - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to around 1% from an initial estimate of nearly 2%. This decline is significantly influenced by tariff impacts [8]. 5. **Real Estate and Fiscal Policy in China** - China's real estate investment has underperformed expectations, with potential fiscal stimulus measures anticipated in the second half of the year, including special bonds to support the economy [10]. 6. **Currency Trends** - The U.S. dollar is expected to depreciate, while the Chinese yuan may appreciate, potentially reaching around 7 by the end of the year. This is influenced by the current economic conditions and capital flows [12][13][23]. 7. **Global Trade Dynamics** - The trade war has led to a significant shift in global trade patterns, with China increasing exports to regions like ASEAN and Africa to offset losses from the U.S. market [3][6]. 8. **Long-term Economic Relations** - In the long run, the economic relationship between China and the U.S. is expected to evolve amidst geopolitical divisions, with China focusing more on non-U.S. partners [7]. 9. **Market Sentiment and Investment Risks** - Current market sentiment is weak due to ongoing uncertainties regarding trade policies and tariffs, which could lead to significant declines in exports and economic growth in the latter half of the year [26][27]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Inflation and Monetary Policy** - The U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and rising inflation expectations are leading to tighter monetary policies, with little likelihood of a new Plaza Accord [11]. 2. **Emerging Market Currencies** - Emerging market currencies are facing uncertainty due to trade dynamics and economic challenges, limiting their potential for appreciation [15]. 3. **Commodity Market Outlook** - A bearish outlook is projected for commodities like oil and steel, with expectations of price declines due to oversupply and weak demand [22]. 4. **Investor Behavior** - Investors are advised to be cautious with U.S. Treasury bonds due to volatility risks and potential dollar depreciation impacting returns on dollar-denominated assets [13][18]. 5. **Future Liquidity Conditions** - The potential for rapid liquidity release in the market is anticipated, depending on the economic recovery trajectory, which could influence asset allocation strategies [25].

在中国的稀土管控政策下，美国的半导体、军工、新能源等行业饱受冲击，美国的能源和农产品对华出 口还处于低迷状态，而军工、能源和粮食是特朗普的基本盘。在这种背景下，近日美媒炒作中方放松了 对美稀土出口管制，理由是中方发放了4张稀土出口许可证，这是中国自上个月对7类中重稀土实施出口 限制后，首次发放出口许可。不排除是特朗普政府的授意，目的是试探中方的态度，为接下来的谈判定 下基调，但美方的算盘很难打响。 如果这样，我们不妨可以高价出售稀土给美国，但禁止美国出售使用中国稀土制造的武器装备给台湾 省，如果不停，就全面中断对美国稀土出口。也就是说，稀土这张牌，我们可以不断地打，反复地打， 既可以和关税战结合，也可以和关税战脱离，中美之间的针锋相对，并非仅仅针对特朗普的关税疯狂， 需要打系统战、总体战、混合战，让特朗普无法施展流氓政治，基于实力和地位坚决地斗争，并获得彻 底的胜利。 据北京青年网报道，近日，外交部发言人主持例行记者会。有记者提问，美国贸易代表格里尔本周告诉 美媒体，中国同意解除近期后发布的出口反制措施，包括对稀土矿物和磁铁的出口管制。中方已宣布修 改几项非关税反制措施，但没有修改稀土方面的限制。中方是否计划 ...

Market Overview - The market sentiment was boosted by changes in tariff expectations, leading to a rebound in the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices, with total trading volume reaching 1.21 trillion yuan [1] - The Federal Reserve's May meeting minutes indicated increased uncertainty regarding the U.S. economic outlook, with concerns about tariffs driving inflation, and a cautious approach towards interest rate cuts [1][2] Economic Indicators - China's economic indicators for the first four months of the year showed year-on-year growth rates exceeding those of the previous quarter, indicating a stable recovery [1] - The current phase of easing in U.S.-China trade tensions is expected to support export activities during the tariff suspension period, potentially boosting corporate revenues [1] Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's minutes highlighted a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, with officials awaiting clearer information on fiscal and trade policies before making decisions [2][3] - The potential for "stagflation" risks was noted, suggesting that the Fed may maintain higher interest rates until inflation shows a clear decline [3] Stock Market Performance - On May 29, the A-share market saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3363.45 points, up 0.70% [4] - The technology and healthcare sectors led the gains, with the computer sector rising by 3.62% and the pharmaceutical sector by 2.37% [4] Trading Volume and Financing - The market's trading volume was reported at 12,136.01 billion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day [5] - The margin financing balance also rose to 18,105.17 billion yuan, indicating increased investor activity [5]

Group 1 - The core issue is the ongoing tensions between the US and China regarding chip exports, with the US imposing stricter controls to hinder China's chip industry development [1][7] - The Chinese government has indicated a willingness to engage in dialogue with the US, but insists that such discussions must be based on equality and respect [1][3] - The US's actions, particularly in the semiconductor sector, reflect a continued intent to contain China's growth despite a temporary pause in the trade war [1][5] Group 2 - Former South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha, now the president of the US Asia Society, is in China to mediate the chip-related disputes, aiming to foster understanding between the two nations [3] - There is significant internal opposition in the US against Trump's trade policies, with some Republican lawmakers arguing that the trade deficit with China does not equate to a zero-sum game and that both economies benefit from trade [5] - A coalition of 12 US states has filed a lawsuit against Trump, challenging the legality of his tariff impositions, which they argue have harmed their interests [5] Group 3 - The ongoing chip export restrictions from the US are seen as a form of economic warfare that impacts both countries, with China striving to enhance its semiconductor capabilities through increased R&D investment [7] - The future of US-China relations in the semiconductor sector is critical for the global chip industry, as both nations navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by their rivalry [7]

另外，从宏观面来看，2025年以来，国际宏观面消息扰动不断，先是越南、印度等多个国家对中国热轧 板卷产品加收关税，制约热轧板卷出口。国内则基本围绕粗钢减产以及促消费等消息，该消息发布初 期，对行情起到一定提振，但随着消息面转淡，价格将再次回归基本面运行逻辑。6月份来看，贸易局 势不确定性依然存在，且国内消息面逐步进入真空期，难以对热轧板卷市价形成提振。 综合分析，预计6月热轧板卷或继续保持下跌走势，且价格逐步跌出4月以来形成的震荡区间，主要原因 在于淡季的来临带动供需矛盾不断升级，而能够提振行情的消息面因素则逐步减少，国内消息进入真空 期，国际消息不确定性则增加。在多方因素共同作用下，热轧板卷价格底部支撑再次松动，从而市价大 概率出现显著下滑。 （作者：李欢，卓创资讯分析师） （文章来源：新华财经） 2025年，热轧板卷价格走势相对平缓，基本呈现区间震荡局面，价格重心则逐步下移。虽然中美贸易紧 张局势近期有所缓和，市场暂时进入消息真空期，热轧板卷现货供需矛盾逐步凸显，市价再次出现跌 势，就当前走势来看，6月份市价或再次跌至新的震荡区间，时间节点在端午节后。 具体来看，对于6月热轧板卷行情预期下滑，主要考虑市场 ...