Focus on Credit ABS - The Banking Credit Asset Registration and Circulation Center has revised the rules for credit asset securitization, requiring reporting of significant events that may adversely affect asset-backed securities within three working days [1] Macro Dynamics - The Trading Association and Shanghai Bill Exchange held a meeting to discuss the expansion of supply chain bill ABS business, aiming to connect the bill market with the bond market and support small and micro enterprises [3] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 454.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan due to the maturity of 830 billion yuan in reverse repos [4][5] Regional Highlights - Zhengzhou plans to add seven urban renewal projects with a total investment of 13.176 billion yuan [6] - Zhejiang issued the first special bonds for acquiring existing housing, totaling 1.653 billion yuan for eight projects [8] - Shaanxi is guiding enterprises to formulate debt repayment plans and explore various financing channels [9] - Shaoxing is providing subsidies to listed companies for refinancing and debt financing [10] Issuance Dynamics - Zhengzhou Transportation Development Investment Group issued 500 million yuan in green perpetual bonds at a rate of 2.20% [11] - Luohe Investment Holding Group issued 660 million yuan in company bonds at a rate of 2.30% [12] - Kaifeng Urban Development Group is seeking underwriters for a bond issuance of up to 1 billion yuan [13] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 80 billion yuan in book-entry discount treasury bonds [14] - China Great Wall Asset Management issued the first bad asset securitization product in the exchange market, totaling 1.77 billion yuan [15] - Xinjiang Small Loan Company issued 300 million yuan in bonds to support small and micro enterprises [16] Market Sentiment - The credit bond market is expected to experience a high probability of fluctuation and decline in June, influenced by ongoing interest rate adjustments and new policy financial tools [22] - Static analysis indicates that various credit bonds can withstand limited upward pressure in June [23]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*周报 2025 年 06 月 03 日 固定收益研究 相关研究 1.《九月债券投资展望》2024-08-30 2.《债市周观察（08.12-08.18）——短期内较难有资 本利得空间》2024-08-19 3.《债市周观察（08.05-08.11）——回调仍在持续， 但卖出是阶段性的》2024-08-12 债市周观察（5.26-6.1）——蛰伏 5 月制造业 PMI 低位修复，但仍处于收缩区间。5 月 PMI 录得 49.5%，较 上月小幅回升 0.5 个百分点。其中，生产指数环比上涨 0.9 个百分点，新 订单指数环比回升 0.6 个百分点。当月，中美关税摩擦显现阶段性缓和迹 象并达成临时性经贸协定，抢出口效应得以延续，但 PMI 整体读数仍低于 荣枯线且增幅不及预期，显示修复动能仍然不足。 上周关税局势再生变数，不确定性陡然加剧。5 月 28 日，美国国际贸易法 院裁定禁止执行特朗普依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税的行 政令；29 日，联邦巡回上诉法院批准政府请求，暂缓执行该禁令；同日， 位于首都华盛顿的哥伦比亚特区联邦地区法院就特朗普政府依据《国际紧 急经济权力法 ...

执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市"每调买机"情绪回归 ——债市情绪面周报（6 月第 1 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-03 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：6 月债市高胜率+低赔率的组合延续 当前 10Y 国债收益率在 1.65%至 1.70%附近持续震荡超一月，5 月利率 弱、信用强，存单在 1.70%附近震荡，短期债市多空交织。第一，在关税反复 扰动背景下，央行的主要目标由防空转、稳汇率切换至稳增长，双降以及一揽 子货币政策带动广谱利率下行，债牛环境不变；第二，但从短期来看，6 月资 金面易受扰动，存单大额到期+季末流动性冲击+供给高峰，在此背景下央行 对于资金面的话语权已经提升，我们预计一季度的情形大概率不会重演，资金 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月03日 超长债周报 贸易战形势扑簌迷离，超长债成交量保持高位 核心观点 固定收益周报 超长债复盘：上周贸易战形势扑簌迷离，债市跟随波动。另外资金面维 持宽松态势，隔夜利率再次回落至 1.4%，超长债小幅承压，全周 V 型走 势。成交方面，上周超长债交投活跃度小幅上升，交投相当活跃。利差 方面，上周超长债期限利差走阔，品种利差走阔。 超长债投资展望： 30 年国债：截至 5 月 30 日，30 年国债和 10 年国债利差为 23BP，处于 历史偏低水平。从国内经济数据来看，4 月经济依然展现出韧性。我们 测算的 4 月国内 GDP 同比增速约 4.1%，较 3 月回落 0.8%，但是仍高于 全年经济增速目标值。通胀方面，4 月 CPI 为-0.1%，PPI-2.7%，通缩风 险依然明显。近期中美贸易摩擦出现阶段性缓和，投资者悲观预期有所 消散，短期焦点将回到国内二季度经济数据，我们预计随着政策托底效 应的减弱，债市收益率下行概率更大。不过当前 30 年国债期限利差依 然偏低，期限利差保护度有限。 20 年国开债：截至 5 月 30 日，20 年国开债和 20 年国债利差为 2B ...

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 06 月 03 日 | 齐晟 | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | 杜林 | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | 王静颖 | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | | 利空或已提前反应，6 月债市或存机会 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗误 | 建议在 3Y 左右做下沉挖掘：固定收益市场 | 2025-05-27 | | --- | --- | | 周观察 | | | 存单利率重回下行时间点或早于预期：固 | 2025-05-26 | | 定收益市场周观察 | | | 降准是对债市行情的确认还是催化？ | 2025-05-22 | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分 ...

截至2025年6月3日 11:22，30年国债ETF博时(511130)上涨0.06%，最新价报111.55元。流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手6.57%，成交5.05亿元。拉长 时间看，截至5月30日，30年国债ETF博时近1月日均成交23.51亿元。 从资金净流入方面来看，30年国债ETF博时近8天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得3.75亿元净流入，合计"吸金"9.69亿元，日均净流入达1.21亿元。 数据显示，杠杆资金持续布局中。30年国债ETF博时最新融资买入额达3159.61万元，最新融资余额达5023.35万元。 截至5月30日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨14.28%，指数债券型基金排名3/386，居于前0.78%。从收益能力看，截至2025年5月30日，30年国债ETF博时 自成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比为9/5，上涨月份平均收益率为2.20%，月盈利百分比为 64.29%，月盈利概率为70.26%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至2025年5月30日，30年国债ETF博时近3个月超越基准年化收益为1. ...

截至2025年6月3日 10:51，30年国债ETF(511090)上涨0.12%，最新价报123.1元。流动性方面，30年国债 ETF盘中换手9.21%，成交16.92亿元。拉长时间看，截至5月30日，30年国债ETF近1月日均成交75.43亿 元。 业内人士认为，30年国债ETF是较好的组合管理工具，不管用于平衡组合久期还是对冲权益仓位，其配 置价值、交易价值都较为突出。首先，30年期国债ETF交易门槛低，个人投资者可以直接购买，最小交 易单位为100份，约1万元。其次，交易效率高，买卖即时成交，并可实现T+0日内回转交易。最后，有 多家做市商提供流动性，买卖即时成交，不缺对手盘，流动性较为充裕。 规模方面，30年国债ETF最新规模达183.87亿元。 风险提示：本产品由鹏扬基金管理有限公司发行与管理，销售机构不承担产品的投资、兑付和风险管理 责任。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保证基金一定盈利，也 不保证最低收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现，本公司管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成对本基 金业绩表现的预示和保证。投资者在投资基金前应认真阅读基金合同、招募说明书和基金产品 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has been actively engaging in net liquidity injection operations to maintain a balanced and slightly loose funding environment in the market [1][13] - The 10-year government bond yield fluctuated, reaching a high of 1.73% before retreating to 1.70%, with an overall increase of approximately 1 basis point for the week [1][5] - The upcoming week will see over 1.6 trillion yuan in reverse repos maturing, with a significant decrease in net government bond payments expected [1][6] Group 2 - The yield curve for government bonds showed mixed movements, with the 10-year yield decreasing by 4.96 basis points, while the 30-year yield increased by 0.7 basis points [2][3] - The issuance of interest rate bonds last week totaled 61 issues amounting to 394.21 billion yuan, a significant decrease compared to previous weeks [6] - The upcoming week is set to see the issuance of 32 interest rate bonds totaling 434.89 billion yuan, including 2.76 billion yuan in government bonds [6] Group 3 - The U.S. Treasury market experienced a sell-off in May, with yields across various maturities rising by over 20 basis points, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes highlighted increased uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, with potential risks of rising unemployment and inflation [11][12] - Analysts suggest that the widening yield spread between 30-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries reflects concerns over the safety of long-term bonds, with expectations of limited interest in purchasing them unless credible fiscal signals are provided [12]

Core Viewpoint - June is identified as a critical transitional period for the bond market, with a focus on the downward trend of general interest rates leading to stronger bond market rates, and the increasing certainty of looser funding around the quarter-end [1][4][11]. Group 1: Market Performance - Since early May, the bond market has entered a transitional phase under funding constraints, with a gradual compression of spreads [1]. - The credit spread, particularly at the short end, has compressed to historical lows, while the spread between government bonds and policy bank bonds turned negative in late May [1][4]. - The spread between active and less active 10-year government bonds has narrowed significantly, indicating a clear trend of spread compression in the market [1][4]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to focus on 10-year and 30-year non-active government bonds, including new and old special government bonds, as well as 10-year local government bonds, which offer both liquidity and static returns [1]. - For credit bonds, attention should be given to high-rated (AAA) credit bonds with a maturity of over five years that possess certain liquidity [1]. - Credit bond ETFs that are eligible for general pledged repos are also suggested for consideration [1]. Group 3: Strategic Transition - The bond market is expected to transition from a pure coupon strategy to a strategy that balances coupon and liquidity [1][11]. - The next phase of spread compression may lead to either a bear market driven by macro policy shifts or a rapid rise in bond prices if government bond rates decline sharply [11]. - The recommendation is to prepare for a shift to more liquid instruments in anticipation of the next round of interest rate declines, considering the uncertainty of funding fluctuations at the end of June [11].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is considering the need for caution in reducing government bond purchases if liquidity in the bond market significantly declines within a specific time frame, particularly in the ultra-long-term segment [1]