晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：地产数据偏弱 矿价波动加剧 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 供应方面：外矿环比显著增加，整体同比降幅趋于收窄。5 月份是外矿发运旺季，主流矿 山预计发运保持平稳回升态势，供给端支撑力度边际减弱。 需求方面：国内需求整体处于历史同期高位区，铁水环比回落至 244.8（-0.87），短期需 求端见顶，国内终端需求进入淡季，但当前钢厂盈利率水平较高且出口端预期上修，预期铁水 将整体高位回落走势但下行斜率偏低，短期对价格影响程度尚不显著。 原材料：程 鹏 库存方面：从当前国内高企的需求水平来看，5 月份港口库存水平将保持相对平稳或偏向 于去化态势，但整体评估来看，库存整体处于高位，库存高位阶段性去库难以提供 ...

Economic Overview - In April, China's economy demonstrated stable growth supported by proactive macro policies, with production and demand maintaining a steady increase [1] - The industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.1% year-on-year, while the service production index increased by 6.0% [3] - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [3] Investment and Consumption - Consumption and investment both showed stable growth, with the "old-for-new" policy supporting steady consumption growth [3] - Infrastructure investment maintained a stable growth rate of 5.8%, while manufacturing investment slightly declined but remained significantly above economic growth rates [3] - High-tech industries such as information services, computers, and aerospace continued to see double-digit growth, providing crucial support for domestic demand [3] Supply Chain and Production - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles maintained rapid year-on-year growth, indicating a recovery in the economic supply-demand structure [3] - The total import and export value of goods increased by 2.4% year-on-year, with a notable 9.5% growth in the export of electromechanical products [9] Policy and Future Outlook - The coordination of monetary and fiscal policies has played a positive role in stabilizing domestic demand [7] - The government aims to implement more proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, businesses, markets, and expectations, while promoting high-quality development and strengthening domestic circulation [9]

Economic Overview - China's economic foundation is stable, with multiple advantages, strong resilience, and significant potential, maintaining a long-term positive trend [1][4] - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.1% year-on-year, marking one of the fastest monthly growth rates since last year [1][4] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive months [2] - Employment policies have been strengthened to support key groups such as youth and migrant workers, contributing to overall employment stability [2] Consumer and Investment Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April increased by 5.1% year-on-year, reflecting the effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies [3] - Fixed asset investment grew by 4% from January to April, with equipment and tool purchases rising by 18.2%, contributing 64.5% to total investment growth [3] Foreign Trade Performance - Despite a challenging external environment, China's foreign trade maintained stable growth, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% from January to April [3][4] - In April, the total goods import and export value grew by 5.6%, with exports rising by 9.3%, demonstrating strong resilience and international competitiveness [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the steel industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The crude steel production in April 2025 remained flat year-on-year at 86.02 million tons, with a daily average production of 2.867 million tons, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.3% [2][7]. - The steel industry's profitability has improved, with the profit ratio of steel mills rising to 59.3% as of May 16, 2025, driven by falling raw material prices [2]. - The net financing of local government bonds reached 528.1 billion yuan in April 2025, indicating a significant increase in fiscal spending, which is expected to support demand in the steel sector [2][3]. - The apparent consumption of steel in April 2025 was 76.08 million tons, slightly down by 1.7% year-on-year, influenced by uncertainties from US-China tariff disputes [2][3]. Summary by Sections Production and Consumption - In April 2025, the production of pig iron was 72.58 million tons, up 0.7% year-on-year, while steel production increased by 6.6% to 125.09 million tons [7]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was at 49.0%, indicating a slight contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 50.4% [2]. Export and Import Dynamics - Steel exports in April 2025 reached 9.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16%, benefiting from price advantages [3][7]. - Iron ore imports rose by 1.3% year-on-year to 103.14 million tons in April 2025, although overall iron ore imports for the first four months decreased by 5.5% [7]. Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies, including increased fiscal spending and monetary easing to support the economy [3]. - The report suggests that with the anticipated improvement in demand and supply-side adjustments, the long-term fundamentals of the steel industry are expected to improve [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and others, highlighting their potential benefits from the current economic conditions and demand recovery [8][9].

Economic Growth and Policy Implementation - The national economy has shown resilience and stable growth in April, supported by proactive macro policies that effectively respond to external shocks [1][2] - Major production demand indicators have seen significant growth compared to the previous year, with industrial value-added increasing by 6.1% year-on-year in April [2] - Fixed asset investment has also expanded, with a year-on-year growth of 4% in the first four months [2] Trade and External Resilience - Despite a challenging international environment, China's foreign trade has maintained steady growth, with total goods import and export value increasing by 2.4% year-on-year in the first four months [3] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative has grown by 3.9%, indicating a diversification in trade partnerships [3] Consumer Market Dynamics - The consumer market has shown stable growth, with retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 4.7% year-on-year in the first four months, supported by policies promoting consumption [4] - The "old for new" consumption policy has positively impacted sales in various categories, with significant year-on-year growth in household appliances and communication equipment [4] New Economic Drivers - New consumption drivers are emerging, with online retail and instant retail gaining popularity, leading to a 5.8% year-on-year increase in physical goods online retail sales [4] - The high-tech manufacturing sector has also seen robust growth, with a 10% year-on-year increase in value-added for high-tech manufacturing in April [3] Policy Effectiveness and Future Outlook - The effectiveness of macro policies has been evident, with a focus on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations to ensure sustainable economic development [5][8] - The government aims to enhance consumer capacity and improve the consumption environment to further unlock consumption potential [5]

Economic Performance - In April, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 5.1% year-on-year [1] - From January to April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year [1] - The growth rate of 6.1% in industrial production is one of the fastest monthly rates since last year, with 36 out of 41 major industries showing growth [1][2] High-tech and Emerging Industries - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 10.0% year-on-year, outperforming the overall industrial growth by 3.9 percentage points [2] - Specific sectors such as intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing and smart vehicle equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with increases of 74.2% and 29.3% respectively [2] - The production of industrial robots surged by 51.5% year-on-year, indicating a strong trend towards industrial upgrading and innovation [2] Consumer Market Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods in April grew by 5.1%, driven by policies such as trade-in programs [3] - The retail sales growth rate has remained above 5% for two consecutive months, reflecting stable market conditions [3] - Service retail sales also showed positive growth, with travel-related consumption increasing rapidly [3] Policy and Economic Outlook - Despite external shocks, the overall economic recovery trend remains unchanged, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies [4] - The need for coordinated policy efforts is emphasized, particularly in boosting consumption through both short-term measures and long-term reforms [4] - Future consumption-boosting policies should focus on demand-side initiatives, especially in fiscal policy [4]

Economic Overview - In April, China's economy demonstrated resilience amid external shocks and internal challenges, with various regions and departments implementing proactive macro policies to stabilize growth [1][2] - Key economic indicators showed stable growth, with industrial added value increasing by 6.1% year-on-year and the service sector production index rising by 6.0% [1][2] Industrial Performance - The industrial sector maintained rapid growth, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 6.1%, marking one of the fastest monthly growth rates since last year [1][5] - Equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, contributing 55.9% to the overall industrial growth [1][5] Service Sector Growth - The service sector's production index grew by 6.0%, with notable increases in information transmission, software, and IT services (10.4%) and leasing and business services (8.9%) [2][3] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.7% year-on-year from January to April, with service retail sales growing by 5.1% [3][4] Consumption Trends - The consumption of home appliances and cultural office supplies saw substantial growth, with retail sales increasing by 38.8% and 33.5% respectively in April [3][4] - Travel and communication services experienced double-digit growth due to increased demand during holidays [3][4] Investment Dynamics - From January to April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 147,024 billion yuan, growing by 4.0% year-on-year, with high-tech industries showing significant investment growth [5][6] - The manufacturing sector exhibited rapid growth, particularly in integrated circuits (21.3%) and new energy vehicles (38.9%) [5][6] Future Outlook - Despite ongoing international uncertainties, China's economic fundamentals remain strong, supported by coordinated macro policies and innovation-driven growth [5][6] - The industrial sector is expected to continue its transformation and upgrade, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and fostering new industries [6]

（数据来源：国家统计局） 4月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长6.0%，较3月份回落0.3个百分点；1-4月份，全国服务业生产指数 同比增长5.9%，较1-3月份小幅回升0.1个百分点。 4月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长5.1%，较3月份回落0.8个百分点；1-4月份，社会消费品零售总额 同比增长4.7%，较1-3月份回升0.1个百分点。 21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道5月19日，国家统计局发布4月经济数据。 从4月当月数据来看，尽管规模以上工业增加值、全国服务业生产指数、社会消费品零售总额等同比增 速较3月当月有所下行，但是4月各项主要指标整体依然维持较好水平，推动1-4月份部分指标的增速较 1-3月份进一步上行。 一季度我国经济同比增长5.4%，但是4月份规模以上工业增加值、全国服务业生产指数同比增速均达到 6%，4月经济运行整体平稳。尽管4月中下旬以来，我国出口美国关税大幅提升，4月我国对美国出口同 比下降，但是4月当月整体出口依然韧性十足，表现好于外界预期。 4月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，较3月回落1.6个百分点；1-4月份，全国规模以上工业 增加值同比增长6.4%，较1-3月 ...

国务院新闻办今天举行新闻发布会，国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖介绍，4月份，我国加紧实施更加积 极有为的宏观政策，经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好态势。 4月份，生产供给较快增长。从工业来看，宏观政策组合效应持续释放，工业保持较快增长。4月份，规 模以上工业增加值同比增长6.1%，是去年以来月度增速中比较快的速度。在"两新"政策加力扩围和产业 升级带动下，装备制造业持续较快增长，4月份装备制造业增加值同比增长9.8%。对规模以上工业增长 的贡献率达到55.9%。 今年以来，我国外贸韧性持续彰显。就业形势总体稳定。4月份，全国城镇调查失业率为5.1%，比上月 下降0.1个百分点，连续两个月下降。 今年，我国新质生产力成长壮大。4月份，规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长10%，其中，航空航 天相关设备制造、集成电路制造增加值快速增长，数字产业蓬勃发展。 国家统计局新闻发言人 付凌晖：4月份，外部冲击影响加大，但我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧性强、潜 能大，宏观政策协同发力，各方面积极应变、主动作为，国民经济应变克难稳定运行，发展质量持续提 升，进一步增强了我们应对各种风险挑战的信心和底气。 来源：央视新闻客户端 国家统 ...

Group 1 - In April, the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, influenced by falling international energy prices and domestic price drops in certain industries [1] - Despite the ongoing decline in PPI, macroeconomic policies are showing effectiveness, leading to a recovery in market demand and growth in new economic drivers, resulting in price improvements in some sectors [1] Group 2 - Demand in the high-end manufacturing sector has strengthened, with prices for wearable smart devices increasing by 3% and aircraft manufacturing prices rising by 1.3% in April, driven by economic restructuring and expanding demand for high-tech products [1] - The "Two New" policies are showing effects, with a narrowing decline in prices for household washing machines and new energy passenger vehicles by 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1] - In traditional industries, there has been an improvement in supply and demand, with price declines in the black metal smelting and rolling industry and non-metallic mineral products narrowing by 1.4 and 1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [2] Group 3 - The continuous decline in PPI indicates that some industries are experiencing significant price drops, which negatively impacts the profitability of industrial enterprises [2] - There is a need to continue expanding domestic demand, promote technological and industrial innovation, and optimize capacity structure to achieve a high-level dynamic balance between supply and demand, thereby improving industrial product prices and enhancing business confidence [2]