证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250623 防御在前，反攻在后 2025 年 06 月 23 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 海外波动加剧 中美关系的缓和与反复：虽然近期特朗普的关税政策有所缓和，但未来 仍存在继续加码的可能。关税是当初特朗普竞选总统时的重要承诺之 一，未来为了保证共和党在中期选举的席位，特朗普对待关税的始终摇 摆不定，通过反复的关税政策营造一种正在努力为铁锈区选民争取福利 的假象。向前看，尽管当期关税政策阶段性缓和，中美双方在技术、产 业政策和国家安全等领域的深层次分歧仍未解决，叠加特朗普反复无常 的关税政策，未来中美关系依旧面临较高的不确定性。 伊以冲突扩散引发全球地缘政治风险加剧：近期，以色列与伊朗之间的 冲突再度升级，成为全球关注的焦点。6 月 13 日开始，以色列对伊朗境 内的核设施和军事目标实施了大规模打击，此次冲突是 1979 年伊朗伊 斯兰革命以来双方最大规模直接军事对抗。以色列意图瘫痪伊朗核潜 力，伊朗则转向打击以经济命脉及领导层目标。至 6 月 21 日，美国空 袭伊朗三处核设施，进一步扩大了战争范围。在持续的打击下， ...

2025.06. 23 本文字数：2462，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 年初时，DeepSeek的崛起带动"中国资产重估"，此后这一主题不再局限于科技互联网行业，中国新 消费和创新药都有所表现，而这三大主题也在今年引领了港股行情。 投行的数据显示，当前国际资金对中国的配置比例仍处于历史低位附近，但摩根士丹利近期也提及， 大多数全球投资者都明确表示，有意愿重新增配部分中国资产。 在美国资管巨头骏利亨德森投资（Janus Henderson Investors）大中华区股票负责人、基金经理缪子 美（Victoria Mio）看来，那些有创新和突破的行业企业会受重估，例如，能运用AI实现增长或降本 增效的企业、有创新药以及产线可能会被跨国药企看中的医疗企业、能打造全球品牌的消费企业。 港股、美股皆有机会 行业当前的共识在于，今年美股和中国股市都有布局机会，而港股的机会可能优于A股。 事实上，今年港股的消费板块人气已经超过了互联网。 从消费板块来看，泡泡玛特（09992.HK）、蜜雪集团（02097.HK）、老铺黄金（06181.HK）被投 资者称为"港股三姐妹"。缪子美在3月时的一篇调研笔记中就 ...

港股新消费概念低开高走，老铺黄金(06181.HK)涨超7%，毛戈平(01318.HK)涨超4%，泡泡玛特 (09992.HK)、蜜雪集团(02097.HK)等跟涨。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed mixed performance with the national free cash flow index slightly declining by approximately 0.15%, while component stocks experienced varied movements, with Jinjiang Shipping leading gains and Dazhenglin facing losses [1] - The low-fee free cash flow ETF (159201) actively traded in line with the index adjustment, currently holding a scale of 3.698 billion yuan, leading among similar products [1] - CITIC Securities indicated that the previously strong-performing Hong Kong new consumption and innovative pharmaceutical sectors have recently undergone significant adjustments, impacting related A-share sectors, with liquidity and risk appetite in Hong Kong facing ongoing challenges [1] Group 2 - The free cash flow ETF (159201) closely tracks the national free cash flow index and has demonstrated strong long-term performance [1] - The free cash flow stock selection strategy offers substantial allocation value, with a portfolio structure that significantly differs from traditional dividend strategies, showing stronger aggressiveness in value markets, making it an excellent complement to defensive strategies [1]

Group 1 - The core concept of new consumption is evolving, with products like Labubu toys and high-end gold jewelry gaining popularity among younger consumers, leading to significant stock price increases for companies like Laopu Gold and Pop Mart [2][5] - The market has seen a shift in public fund holdings, with a notable increase in the number of funds investing in new consumption stocks, particularly Laopu Gold and Pop Mart, indicating growing recognition of their potential [3][4] - The new consumption sector has achieved a total market value exceeding 710 billion HKD, despite ongoing debates about its sustainability [3][5] Group 2 - The transformation in consumer behavior reflects a shift from material wealth to experiential satisfaction, with consumers prioritizing quality and emotional value over brand prestige [6][7] - New consumption brands are focusing on product quality and emotional resonance, moving away from traditional marketing strategies, which has led to a redefined relationship between consumers and brands [7][8] - Structural changes in the economy are driving the growth of new consumption, as traditional sectors face stagnation, creating opportunities for innovative products that cater to the needs of the Z generation [9][10] Group 3 - Investment strategies in the new consumption sector should focus on companies that align with current trends and consumer psychology, emphasizing brand strength and innovation [11][12] - The potential for significant growth exists in the new consumption space, despite short-term overheating risks, as many companies are still in the early to mid-growth stages [11][12] - The unique characteristics of new consumption markets suggest that opportunities for substantial growth may arise from unexpected breakthroughs, necessitating a nuanced understanding of consumer preferences [12]

【新消费】研究深度框架 - 不谈"新消费有什么"，而讲 "新消费是什么"20250622 摘要 新消费品通过消费者自发宣传形成口碑传播，带动业绩和股价增长，股 价上涨反过来提高产品关注度，形成正反馈效应，如老铺黄金和泡泡玛 特。 政策刺激对新消费行业的影响因公司而异，业绩增长或具有自传播效应 的股票表现突出，股价上涨进一步促进业绩提升，形成正反馈循环。 可选消费品定价不直接与成本挂钩，更多取决于市场需求、品牌影响力 和消费者心理因素，价格波动较大，不完全依赖于生产成本。 新消费品成功的关键在于满足消费者的情绪价值，特别是年轻人的审美 优越感，通过购买特定产品来展示自己的眼光独到。 上市公司对新消费品的发展具有显著影响，上市将产品客观化，并且通 过股价上涨验证了早期消费者的眼光，提升市场认可度。 新消费形成自传播效应需具备可交易性和易造梗性，通常来自于新形成 的消费习惯或新破圈的品牌，消费者成为营销官。 新消费核心特点是自传播性，让消费者成为营销官，实现破圈效应，必 须可交易，最好是新形成的消费习惯或新的破圈品牌。 Q&A 新消费行业的特点是什么？ 新消费行业具有客观和主观两个方面的特点。客观上，新消费行业首先 ...

当下内需新消费与 AI 应用如何看？20250622 摘要 近期市场回调受地缘政治及新消费股解禁影响，但暑期档电影和潮玩等 内需型消费领域仍具潜力。人民日报对盲盒经济的关注预示着潜在监管 风险。 暑期档短剧市场受广电总局分级管理政策影响，进入精细化阶段。腾讯 短剧小程序和字节跳动红果增长迅速，预示着市场竞争加剧。 院线公司如万达电影、上海电影、横店影视等积极布局泛娱乐市场，通 过 IP 运营和线下体验拓展业务，预计 2029 年中国泛娱乐市场规模将超 3,000 亿人民币。 短剧行业在政策引导下向优质内容转型，与游戏、线下展览等娱乐形式 融合，推动衍生品和潮玩经济发展。关注腾讯小程序的数据表现及《长 安荔枝》系列。 传媒板块中，出版阅读和游戏公司业绩稳定，如南方传媒、中南传媒等。 中报业绩改善或增长预期，叠加 AI 应用的公司有望获得估值提升。 AI 应用板块在经历年初高涨后进入冷静期，但港股 AI 企业 IPO 及 ARCS 科幻短剧的推出显示行业新动向。关注 AI 生成内容在影视动画领域的潜 力。 AI 生成内容市场规模预计达千亿美元级别。关注 AI 加教育（天舟文化、 荣信文化）、AI 加陪伴（奥飞娱乐 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower on June 23, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.83% at 23,335.51 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index down 1.08%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down 0.81% [1] - Technology stocks experienced widespread declines, while gold stocks opened higher, and several stocks in the oil and gas equipment and services sector saw gains [1] Company Focus: Xiaomi - Xiaomi's first SUV, the YU7, is set to be officially launched on June 26, 2023, as announced by Lei Jun on Weibo [1] - Tianfeng Securities believes that the YU7 has already gained significant attention, positioning it as a representative of Xiaomi's high-end strategy, with its optional configurations offering strong value for money [1] - There is potential for the YU7 to exceed market expectations in sales, and its relatively high-end pricing and sporty characteristics may lead to a valuation premium in the current automotive market [1] - The YU7 will also serve as a test for Xiaomi's ecosystem integration, validating the synergy between Xiaomi's people, vehicles, and home products [1] Investment Products - The Hong Kong Consumption ETF (513230) combines e-commerce and new consumption sectors, covering relatively scarce new consumption tracks compared to A-shares [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index ETF (513180) includes core AI assets in China, featuring technology leaders that are relatively scarce in A-shares [2]

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月23日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-06-20 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3359.89 | 10005.03 | 3846.64 | 11347.74 | 2821.90 | 957.87 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | -0.06 | -0.46 | 0.09 | -0.56 | -0.97 | -0.52 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 4108.73 | 6568.12 | 2135.22 | 2402.88 | 3263.85 | 181.32 | $$\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}\cong\pm\overline{{{\mathbb{M}}}}$$ (4) [ (4) 80 $\mu$H$\beta$ ] 宏观与策略 宏观快评:2025 年 5 月财政数据快评-收支两端同时走弱，财政力度指数 回落 宏观周报:高技术制造业宏观周报-国信 ...

【头条要闻】 美军公布空袭伊朗核设施行动细节 美军参谋长联席会议主席丹·凯恩22日说，美军在打击伊朗核设施的行动中动用7架B-2轰炸机，完成了 摧毁伊朗关键核项目的行动。此次行动创下美军史上最大规模B-2轰炸机出战纪录。 凯恩在五角大楼就美国打击伊朗核设施举行的新闻发布会上说，此次行动名为"午夜之锤"，华盛顿"仅 有极少数人知晓"行动的具体时间与方案细节。B-2轰炸机于美国东部时间20日半夜从美国起飞，部分轰 炸机向西飞越太平洋实施佯动，7架B-2轰炸机作为主力打击机群向东经18小时进入伊朗领空，其间保持 无线电静默，并完成多次空中加油。 伊朗议会赞成关闭霍尔木兹海峡！机构：原油最高恐飙升至130美元/桶！ 央视新闻消息，当地时间22日，伊朗议会国家安全委员会委员库萨里表示，伊朗议会已得出结论，认为 应关闭霍尔木兹海峡，但最终决定权在伊朗最高国家安全委员会手中。 霍尔木兹海峡位于阿曼和伊朗之间，连接了东部的阿曼湾和西部的波斯湾，是海湾地区石油输往世界各 地的唯一海上通道，全球约三分之一的海运原油贸易都要途经霍尔木兹海峡。 据《每日经济新闻》6月22日报道，本轮以伊冲突爆发后，原油市场波动剧烈。布伦特原油期货自 ...